Executive summary:
In October 2024, the following narratives of the propaganda were most significant in Belarus:
I. BELARUS
- The presidential election scheduled for January 2025 has become the dominant factor influencing the information agenda of the authorities. Pre-election events are held all over the country, where propagandists openly urge to vote for Lukashenka.
- Amid preparations for the election, the flow of gratitude and flattery to the “president” in the state media is growing. The Kremlin is actively contributing to strengthening his image as a no-alternative candidate in the election. In October, Putin awarded Lukashenka with the highest Russian order. In response, the propaganda calls the Belarusian ruler “a friend of Russia” and “a great Russian politician,” and Belarus – “a part of the great Russian civilization.”
- At the same time, official Belarus demonstrates soft examples of independence. In October, the necessity to support the study of the native language and even the idea to declare 2025 the year of “Belarusian language” were announced.
- The visit of IAEA Director Rafael Grossi to Belarus in October became an example of “legitimization” of the illegal Belarusian regime by the head of a large international organization.
II. BELARUS’ DEMOCRATIC FORCES
- The process of pardoning political prisoners, which began in August 2024, has stalled. Lukashenka claims that he signed the decrees on pardons out of his humanistic motives, but the regime’s own propaganda disavows his statements. According to its version, political prisoners were released in anticipation of “benefits” from the West, and since there are no benefits, “there will be no pardon.”
- The propaganda on the one hand does not abandon attempts to discredit and intimidate the supporters of democratic changes, on the other hand – to lure those who “left” to the country with false promises.
- Russian Ambassador in Minsk Boris Gryzlov said that the Belarusian security forces were doing an excellent job of suppressing political protests in the country, but if necessary, Russia would always come to the rescue during the upcoming election.
III. UKRAINE
- Lukashenka and his propagandists are making efforts to justify their complicity in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and to put the blame for the war on Ukraine itself.
- At the same time, Lukashenka himself is more and more often speaking conciliatory towards Ukraine, saying that Belarus will help with the post-war reconstruction of the country, and in case of “an attack by Poland” will even “support Ukrainians.”
IV. THE “COLLECTIVE WEST”
- The contradictory nature of propaganda towards Western countries continues. The West remains a target for attacks, but at the same time it is a desirable business partner.
- Belarus demands the lifting of Western sanctions, while claiming that the sanctions are ineffective and even contribute to the development of the economy.
- Propaganda actively supported pro-Russian candidates in its coverage of election in Lithuania, Georgia and Moldova held in October.
I. BELARUS
- Presidential election 2025
The presidential election scheduled for January 2025 is becoming a dominant factor influencing the information agenda of the authorities. As soon as the date of the upcoming elections — January 26, 2025 — was approved in October, the state-controlled media and “experts” began to tell their fellow citizens directly who they should vote for.
Aliaksei Dzermant, pro-government and pro-Russian “political scientist”:
“What kind of future do we need? Preservation and development of the sovereign state in Belarus, based on the values of social justice, friendship of peoples, scientific and technological progress. Positioning Belarus as a western outpost of the uniting Eurasia, the collective East, developing close integration relations with Russia and China. I see only one person who successfully implements this course in practice. This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 23)
Piotr Piatrouski, pro-government “expert”:
“There is no alternative to Aliaksandr Lukashenka at this stage. And in the future there can be only a continuer of his “collective Lukashenka” course. (Personal Telegram channel, October 23)
Ryhor Azaronak, a TV presenter of the STV state TV channel, rejoiced that it is now forbidden to vote abroad in the election, because “the President is chosen by those who live here.”
Aleh Haidukevich, a pro-government politician, said he was also going to run for office, but only to make his “enemies” vomit:
“I want enemies to be sickened by every presidential candidate who runs for office. It should only be patriots who look at the presidential candidates and realize that there is nothing to do in this country. That is why we are going to the polls to strengthen the country.”
Various events and actions, formally non-political, but actually part of Lukashenka’s election campaign, started all over the country. For example, on October 11, the all-Belarusian “Marathon of Unity” started in Maladzechna, where officials, public figures, pro-government activists, propagandists, cosmonauts and even Lukashenka’s youngest son Mikalai, who played the piano, performed.
At one of the events of the “Marathon of Unity” in Homiel, Ihar Tur, a TV presenter of the ONT state TV channel, addressing the audience, among other things, gave an amazing example of how he thinks censorship should work in the country. He mentioned the topic of drones flying into Belarus’ airspace from Russia lately, a topic that is of concern to society, and said that the Belarusian media do not inform citizens about them because…. they care about them:
“Sometimes you see some objects in the sky. And then you open the state media and see nothing about the topic. A lot of processes are hidden and closed – for our good.”
The mass “public” flash mob called ‘’You should!”, also launched in October in different cities of Belarus, has a clearer agitational goal. In its course, “representatives of the people” appeal to the ruler with the call “You should!”. The slogan was taken from Lukashenka’s response in an interview with Olga Skabeyeva, a propagandist of the Russian Rossiya 1 TV channel, in which she asked him if he would run for election, to which Lukashenka replied:
“Yes, Olya, I’ll go. If Eismant [Maria Eismant, the press secretary of the “president”] and my supporters say I should.”
Immediately after that, the Belarusian segment of the Internet was filled with videos of “spontaneous” street actions in different cities of Belarus, where people “self-organize” and say “You should!” on camera. Despite the “national character” of such actions, it is obvious that they could not have been organized without the participation of the state. Representatives of political parties, universities, and enterprises appeared in the videos. The “Patriots” movement published a video, in which cars are lined up in the words “FOR BATYA,” and all this is done under the supervision of police officers. Policemen are also guarding some of the actions – and this is despite the fact that any similar street events would have been violently dispersed immediately and their participants punished. Some actions were filmed with drones, the use of which is prohibited in Belarus without special permission.
In addition, the words “You should!” were run on a large ticker on the building of the National Library in Minsk. Its director, deputy of the National Assembly Vadzim Hihin, commented as follows:
“The National Library, the diamond of knowledge, says to our President confidently: ‘YOU SHOULD!!!’”
The authors of Free Word for Poland, a Polish-language propaganda project of Belarusian Radio, addressed this appeal to Lukashenka in Polish.
The Zerkalo independent media outlet called participation in the filming of such videos “voluntary- forced”. For example, universities receive an order from “above” and use leverage to ensure the participation of students and teachers.
At the same time, the Belarusian dictator himself flatly refuses to recognize all these actions as his election campaign:
“Remember: most of all, I would not want this campaign to start. Yes, we will elect our president, as usual, in the Belarusian way, cleanly, neatly, in front of the entire world community. You will elect the one who deserves it, from your point of view. Therefore, there will be no election campaign.”
And immediately said that even if it is an election campaign, he “has the right to it”. (Speech at the Dazhynki-2024 festival in Valozhyn on October 19)
On air of the Belarus-1 state TV channel, he once again confirmed that such initiatives are pleasant to him:
“I’m happy about it if it’s universally approved. But God forbid it’s an organized thing . … You cannot not make it public: people are asking for it. But I’m saying again that there should be no overkill here, so that we wouldn’t be accused of some kind of personality cult of the leader.”
All these actions and flash mobs have one and only one goal — to create an appearance of “people’s love” for the “president.” Before each election, Lukashenka hints that this presidential term is definitely his last one and that he wants to leave, but cannot because “the people ask” him to stay.
- Glorification of the “leader” and the cult of personality
Amid preparations for the election, there is a growing flow of gratitude and flattery towards Lukashenka.
On October 21, on the air of ONT state TV channel, Ihar Tur suggested calling Lukashenka not “Batska” but “father of the nation”, as the first one “will solve any problem”, while “a father will not only solve the problem, but will also teach his children to solve it themselves”:
“Can’t harness a horse in a cart? Batya will harness, and a father will show it and patiently teach it. Does the son want his own house? Batya will build it, and a father will tell him how to do it, will be there for him, but as a wise helper.”
The Kremlin is also actively involved in the work on Lukashenka’s positive image. On October 9, Vladimir Putin presented him with the highest state award of the Russian Federation – the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle. Putin said that Lukashenka received this award “for his exceptional services” in strengthening ties with Russia.
In his response, the Belarusian dictator said that he considered the award “as a recognition of the merits of the entire Belarusian people” and promised that “Russia has always been and will always be more than a neighboring state” for Belarus:
“We have been put before a choice many times, but we have never, I emphasize, never turned away from Russia. Belarus is a reliable ally. The Belarusians have never let the Russians down. Please accept my assurances: we will never let them down again.”
Propaganda enthusiastically responded to Lukashenka’s awarding with the highest Russian order. In the race of gratitude, some people went so far as to attribute to Lukashenka the merits of preserving and developing Russia. Aliaksandr Shpakouski, Counselor of the Belarusian Embassy in Moscow, pro-government “expert”:
“I have repeatedly said that the historical scale of Lukashenka’s personality is broader than the context of the Belarusian state. Today, along with Vladimir Putin, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is the leader of the Russian world.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 9)
On October 14, Shpakouski praised the press service of the “president” for starting to publish Lukashenka’s quotes, calling them “a theoretical legacy that should become a guide to action for the current and future generations of Belarusian statesmen.”
Ryhor Azaronak, TV presenter of STV TV channel:
“Batska came to power as a friend of Russia. At a time when everyone was wiping their feet on Russia. […] When the West was already sewing a shroud for Russia. That’s when Batska came and said – I’m with the Russians. Be great, Russia. You will be. And Russia became great. And he is still there. And so it will always be” (Personal Telegram channel, October 9)
Also him:
“Aliaksandr Lukashenka is the Belarusian President and a great Russian politician.” (STV, Azarionok. napryamuyu, October 9)
On October 10, Maryna Liancheuskaya, a deputy of the National Assembly (Parliament) of Belarus, said that Lukashenka had received a Russian order for his “not just colossal, but cosmic” contribution to rapprochement with Russia, and suggested that he should be awarded the title of Hero of Belarus. Liancheuskaya also called Lukashenka “the most people-oriented and the most modest president.”
Lukashenka arrived in Moscow not only to receive an order from Putin, but also to congratulate Putin himself on his birthday (October 7). For Belarusian propagandists, this date became another occasion to praise the union of the two dictators and even to put Belarus in the leaders of the “Russian world.”
Aliaksandr Shpakouski:
“Belarus is an original part of the great Russian (Orthodox, East Slavic) civilization. Ukraine is also such a part.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 7).
Aliaksei Dzermant:
“Belarus, Belaya Rus, Belorussia is certainly part of Rus, Russian, Eastern Slavism, the Russian-Eurasian world. That’s why we have a close Union with Russia, which should become the core of the Union 2.0.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 4)
In Moscow, Lukashenka attended, among other things, the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Like all authoritarian leaders from the Soviet era, he dreams of recreating a semblance of the Soviet Union, so at the summit, he called for the return to this “half-dead” organization of those who left it forever because of Russian pressure or wars unleashed by Russia:
“It would be very good to have Georgia back in our family. Moldova would resume its full participation. The Ukrainian authorities would come to their senses in restoring normal life, which we will have to participate in. I am absolutely sure that this will happen.”
At the same time, propaganda, although it recognizes Belarus as part of some mythical “Russian world”, certainly denies the idea of joining Russia. Aliaksandr Lukashenka himself speaks the loudest about it. For example, in a large interview with the Russian Izvestia newspaper, which he gave on the margins of the BRICS summit in Kazan, he said cautiously, but clearly enough, that he did not want Belarus to merge with Russia, and that any politician’s attempts in this direction could end in a sad finale for him and in war for the country:
“Two sovereign states: Belarus and huge Russia. This is the adamant law of our time. Therefore, all the talk about the empire, satellite, not satellite, joining Russia and so on. This state would be destroyed tomorrow. I can’t go for that and nobody has authorized me to do that. Secondly, any move of any politician in this direction – he will be torn down by the Belarusian people.”
[Speaking on behalf of Russians towards Belarusians]: “’You are smaller, we are bigger. We will help you, and you will join Russia further.” It is impossible to frame questions in such a way. It is impossible and impossible to implement. I am even afraid to say, but this is war.”
Official Belarus gently demonstrates examples of its sovereignty from time to time. One of its signs is certainly the efforts of the state and society to preserve, study and spread the native language. In early October, the head of the administration of the “president,” Dzmitry Krutoy, made a very unusual statement on the air of STV TV channel that in Belarus, “there is a big demand for education in the Belarusian language.” According to Krutoy, more attention should be paid to schools that teach in Belarusian. He said that the “president” “always supports these trends,” and said that 2025 could be declared “the year of the Belarusian language.”
This statement looks unusual amid the actual state of affairs with the Belarusian language in the country. Independent experts note that the most profound failure in its teaching occurred exactly during Lukashenka’s rule. The present regime has marginalized the Belarusian language, making it the fate of the mainly rural population and imposing Russian at the official level. There is not a single major state media outlet in the country that is published in the native language. In September 2023, Minister of Education Andrei Ivanets reported that only 10% of the country’s school students are taught in Belarusian.
The official’s statement can also be seen as an attempt to intercept the “national” agenda from Belarus’ democratic forces, for which the dissemination and study of the Belarusian language and culture is an important step on the way to the independence of Belarus.
- Visit of the IAEA Director to Belarus
On October 1, Lukashenka received Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in Minsk. In our opinion, such visits of high officials from international organizations to authoritarian leaders are certainly harmful, as propaganda presents them as gestures “legitimizing” their regime and putting its representatives on an equal level with other participants of world processes. This is what happened this time. The state-controlled media were not so much interested in the topics discussed at the meeting as in the fact of Grossi’s arrival in Belarus.
Siarhei Klishevich, deputy of the National Assembly:
“The IAEA Director General’s visit to Belarus demonstrates confidence in the leadership of our country and the policy of Belarus in nuclear safety issues.” (BelTA, October 1)
Ryhor Azaronak, TV presenter of STV TV channel:
“IAEA in Astraviets. At the nuclear power plant. What and how will the pigs scream when it becomes obvious that the plant is working, it is safe, it is ultramodern? They have been screaming for 10 years already, looking for cracks in the domes, going crazy, eating iodine? And how Lithuanian gauleiters are biting their elbows right now, can you imagine? It’s good, in general.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 1)
At the meeting with Grossi, Lukashenka himself assured him of Belarus’ reliability and predictability:
“You should know that we are committed to security, to peace and we will do everything that we can, that is up to us, to ensure regional nuclear security. You can have no doubt about that. We are reasonable people and we don’t rush into any kind of adventure.”
II. BELARUS’ DEMOCRATIC FORCES
- Pardon for political prisoners
In the previous issue of Belarus Propaganda Update, we already covered the reaction of pro-government commentators to the “president’s” pardon of several groups of political prisoners in August and September of this year. The propaganda admired the “humanity” of the ruler at the time, while not hiding the fact that this “humanity” was based solely on the expectation of easing of Western sanctions.
The “president” himself, who is empowered to sign pardon decrees, denies that he does so as a concession to the West. On October 23, when asked by BBC correspondent Steven Rosenberg whether the release of political prisoners was a signal of his desire to improve relations, Lukashenka replied in the sense that all coincidences are coincidental:
“We freed political prisoners on humanitarian grounds. They were mostly elderly people and the sick. That’s all. This is no step towards improving relations with you. If you don’t want relations with us, that’s fine. We’ll get by without you.”
Rosenberg notes in the article that Lukashenka (perhaps inadvertently) said the phrase “political prisoner” himself.
However, the propagandists themselves contradict their boss. In an online conversation with human rights activist Leanid Sudalenka, Yury Vaskrasenski, a former opposition activist who was a member of the team of presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka, and now a pro-government activist and member of the so-called “Amnesty Commission,” made this very clear:
“We need benefits. We’ve been waiting for some benefits. There are no benefits. And that’s why no more releases are being considered for now.” (Sudalenka’s Facebook page, October 2)
According to experts, Vaskrasenski was assigned the role of voicing the official position of the authorities regarding Belarusian political prisoners. In a conversation with Sudalenka, he said that “‘bold’ political prisoners will be exchanged for ’bold’ offers,” such as the opening of airspace or the lifting of sanctions against enterprises. By “bold” prisoners Vaskrasenski means the most famous prisoners of the regime – Ales Bialiatski, Viktar Babaryka, Maksim Znak, Maria Kalesnikava and others. It should be noted that in September, Lukashenka promised to continue releasing political prisoners.
- Discrediting and threats
Ahead of the election, the main efforts of propaganda are aimed at preventing any manifestations of protests during the voting. Propagandists use the old KGB methods of discrediting, attempts to cause division and mutual suspicion among oppositionists, and intimidation as methods of fighting dissidents inside and outside the country.
Aleh Haidukevich, deputy:
“Half of those in Poland are recruited by the KGB. If people think that someone ran away abroad, you have to ask the question: ‘And who says that a person ran away, and it was not us who drove him to the border and gave him an assignment?’ Our KGB and counterintelligence recruited everyone possible.” (Minsk-Novosti, October 2).
Katsiaryna Tsikhamirava, journalist of First Informational TV channel:
“Tens of thousands of Nazis and their accomplices managed to escape justice by fleeing to the United States [after World War II]. These include hundreds of Belarusian collaborators-officials of the occupation administrations. Having escaped justice, they were hired by the American intelligence to plant democracy through “Radio Liberty.” (First Informational, October 3)
Also her:
“Nazis who killed women and infants sat behind the microphones at Radio Liberty after the war!”
Alyona Krasouskaya, pro-government human rights activist:
“In any country except Belarus, they are forever second-class people. […] Many people now think that it is better even in a Belarusian prison than in another country.” (SB. Belarus Segodnya, October 4)
- Raman Pratasevich’s interview
On the YouTube channel of Russian TV host Ksenia Sobchak, a large interview with Raman Pratasevich, a former employee of the NEXTA independent Telegram channel, arrested by the Belarusian KGB as a result of the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk in May 2021, was released. Under pressure from the security services, Pratasevich began to cooperate with the regime and testify against his former colleagues and protest activists. “I consciously traded my reputation for 25 years of life for myself,” Pratasevich said in an interview with Sobchak.
The statements broadcast by Pratasevich in the interview basically coincide with the main lines of the Belarusian state propaganda. Pratasevich spoke about Lukashenka’s “greatness and power,” about the corruption and weakness of democratic forces and human rights defenders, about the “stabilization” of the situation in the country after the 2020 protests.” A red thread running through all the interviews is the statement that the struggle is pointless and that any resistance to the regime ends in prison and other troubles.
Propagandist of STV TV channel Ryhor Azaronak, who also joined this interview, confirmed Sobchak’s assumption that one of Pratasevich’s functions is to persuade those who left to return to Belarus, repent and live in their own country instead of “being a second-class person” in “unfriendly” Europe. Azaronak claims that it’s “wrong” to live in Belarus and not to support Lukashenka. He justifies his faith in the dictator by the fact that he allegedly “protects the country from the threat of a big war.”
In October, it became known that Azaronak had signed a contract with the Belarusfilm state film studio, where he would act as a director of two exposing films about the opposition, dedicated to the protests after the 2020 election. Earlier, the propagandist repeatedly resented the fact that Belarusfilm does not make films about the events of 2020.
***
On October 2, ONT TV host Ihar Tur said that some terrorist attacks had been prevented in Minsk in November-December 2023. The story said nothing about the political motives of the “terrorist attacks,” but the channel immediately linked them to “external enemies.” According to Tur’s version, they are allegedly looking for “mentally unstable individuals” inside the country to “pump them up with aggression, help them with advice or weapons” and incite them to commit a crime.
The Russian regime is actively assisting the Belarusian regime in fighting the opposition on the ideological front. On October 22, in an interview to the Russian RIA Novosti agency, Russian Ambassador to Minsk Boris Gryzlov promised that in case of “destabilization” of the situation during the election, Russia would help Belarus to restore order:
“The specialized agencies of Russia and Belarus are constantly exchanging information through operational channels. We share data on any potential threats in real time. There is no reason to believe that the Belarusian law enforcement and special services will need additional assistance. They are coping with their tasks perfectly well. But if necessary, Russia, within the framework of its obligations, will certainly provide assistance and support that our closest ally and strategic partner asks us for.”
III. UKRAINE
- Attempts to whitewash Putin
In the already mentioned interview with BBC, the “president” of Belarus once again tried to justify Vladimir Putin’s actions. He said that Belarus did not provide Russia with its territory to attack Ukraine, while the latter allegedly “provoked” the Russian troops itself. Lukashenka responded to a journalist’s question why he allowed the Kremlin to enter Ukraine from his territory:
There were exercises going on involving several thousand Russian soldiers. Putin started withdrawing these troops from where they were in southern Belarus, down a road, along the border with Ukraine. At one point he redirected some of these troops to Kyiv. I’m sure they’d been provoked. Why did this happen? Ask Zelenskyy.”
“Didn’t you call Putin to ask what was going on?” the journalist asks him.
“No. He didn’t call me. And I didn’t call him. These are his troops and he has the right to move them out whichever way he likes,” Lukashenka responded.
As Rosenberg writes in his commentary, Lukashenka’s words reflect the degree of influence the Kremlin has on the Belarusian regime.
In any case, these claims by Lukashenka are lies. It is known that the invasion of Ukraine was planned long beforehand and carefully and was not a spontaneous entry of forces withdrawing from drills, but a simultaneous and organized invasion from the territory of Belarus and Russia, using different types of troops.
When asked by Rosenberg why Belarus did not support Ukraine at that moment, Lukashenka replied that Belarus is an ally of Russia:
“I have and will continue to support Russia for as long as it needs. Just as you claim you will support Ukraine.”
He also assured that as long as the interests of the Belarusian people “coincide with Russian interests,” he would act “hand in hand” with Putin.
In another speech, Lukashenka claimed that Russia did not seize Kyiv only because “the Pope and the entire West” asked it not to do so. At the same time, according to Lukashenka, he himself allegedly started receiving calls from certain Ukrainian generals to ask him to “contact Putin to stop the war and somehow let them surrender.”
- Lukashenka’s conciliatory intonations
In the same BBC interview, the Belarusian “president” assured Rosenberg that he was in favor of peace, not war:
“We are not going to attack anyone, Ukraine included. These are our people — Ukrainians. Our people live there. We are ready to cooperate with them, whatever happens there. Sooner or later we will get to that point.”
Of course, it is impossible to believe the dictator, who has broken his own promises and lied many times (and continues to lie in this interview), and his words should be treated with extreme caution. But the fact remains that the number of Lukashenka’s statements illustrating the degree of the regime’s “fatigue” with the foreign war, in which Belarus has to participate unwillingly, is growing.
Besides, during this period, Lukashenka more and more often says that after the war is over, Ukraine will have to be rebuilt, and here Belarusians will come to the rescue. For some reason, he is convinced that Ukrainians will turn to them for help, despite everything that has happened, and despite even the actual complicity of Belarus in the Russian aggression against this country. The “president” confidently spoke about it, for example, during his working trip to Brest region on October 4:
“He [Volodymyr Zelenskyy] thinks that Americans will restore Ukraine after the war. No one will restore them. If the government changes, they will say: “Volodya, who are you?” Therefore, the leadership of Ukraine should take their heads in their hands and realize that first of all they will have to restore the country. With the help of people close to them, first of all, Belarusians.”
At another meeting, with the workers of Parakhonsk agro-town on October 4, Lukashenka went even further and said that Belarus would defend Ukraine “from the Poles”:
“The basis of Poland’s claims is the desire to take over the western part of Ukraine. Both western Belarus and western Ukraine. And to dominate there. This is unacceptable for us. If only the Poles get into Ukraine and try to seize the west [of Ukraine], we will support Ukrainians. Because we realize that we will be next.” (BelTA, October 4)
The propaganda willingly adopted the thesis about the restoration of Ukraine by Belarusians, at the same time denying its independence and state autonomy and, following Lukashenka, putting the responsibility for the war from Russia onto Ukraine and the West. Aleh Haidukevich, deputy of the National Assembly:
“It’s not Russia that unleashed this war that is going on now, it’s the misfortune of Ukraine, which is not sovereign, and who else is going to help rebuild Ukraine? Certainly Belarusians, certainly Russians. And who else would help them but us.” (Sputnik-Belarus, October 7)
Aliaksandr Alesin, pro-government “expert”:
“We have to be straightforward: after the war in Ukraine is over, this country will have to be rebuilt. Who will rebuild it? Not everyone will want to start from scratch, dismantle the ruins and build the new. I think many people will simply leave. And, along with Russia, Belarus will become a country for many Ukrainians to move to.” (BelTA, October 7)
Among other things, Lukashenka likes to talk about his dialogues with certain “high” representatives of Western countries who ask him for advice, but he usually does not give any names or details. He gave an example of another such “dialogue” in his speech at the II Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security on October 31. Lukashenka said that the West was ready to negotiate a “draw” on Ukraine:
“My recent contacts with intelligent representatives of the ‘civilized West’ suggest that we have a certain change. The West has finally, based on what I know, realized that it is necessary to negotiate in Ukraine. Roughly speaking, I say this in a sporting way, it is possible to have a draw today.”
But other propagandists contradict Lukashenka and prefer to repeat the old mantra about escalation of the conflict by the West. Aliaksandr Valfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus:
“Since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, the West’s attempts to drag Belarus into the conflict have not stopped. We do not need this conflict.” (BelTA, October 4)
At the same time, propaganda continues to blame Ukraine itself for all of Ukraine’s troubles, as does, for example, pro-regime “philosopher” Aliaksei Dzermant:
“A discussion has erupted: is it good, is it useful if there are several different Russian states? Like, look at Ukraine, what it leads to. Ukraine is an example of how the “elites” and a significant part of the people mismanaged their statehood. Instead of reassembling our civilization in the form of a new Union, they chose an alien [civilization] and ended up in war.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 8)
Pro-government public figure and propagandist Yury Vaskrasenski addressed the Ukrainian military with another incitement to seize power and accusations of “genocide of the Ukrainian people” against the Ukrainian leadership:
“Take power into your own hands, remove the Nazi regime! Zelenskyy wants to destroy the entire Ukrainian army. In a state of powerlessness, the voice of the military must be heard. We have called on the Ukrainian leadership many times: save your people, do not kill Ukrainian soldiers with your own hands. […] This is called genocide of the Ukrainian people: we will do politics, and let them die. Their Ukrainian supreme commander-in-chief is a criminal.” (Stream with propagandist Ryhor Azaronak, Azaryonok. Napryamuyu, October 4)
It is unlikely that Vaskrasenski himself believes in the power of his own words. In February 2022, Russian “president” Vladimir Putin addressed the Ukrainian army with exactly the same appeal (and to no avail).
Another curious and, it must be said, bold statement of Lukashenka in recent days is his actual refusal to recognize the legitimacy of Crimea’s annexation to Russia. In the above-mentioned interview with the Russian Izvestiya newspaper, the Belarusian dictator directly says that from the point of view of international law, the peninsula cannot be Russian:
“De facto Crimea is Russian, de jure it is not. Why? Because legally these issues are settled unilaterally. And the international, so-called, community does not recognize Crimea as Russian. This is my position.”
Lukashenka, however, immediately emphasized that he was not refusing to cooperate with the occupation “authorities” of Crimea. Earlier, he said that he would cooperate with Ukraine “on the same principles” as with the occupied territories of Donbas.
IV. THE “COLLECTIVE WEST”
- Contradictions in propaganda narratives
The attitude towards the West in Belarus also remains ambivalent — as an enemy and a desirable partner at the same time. With regard to Western sanctions, propaganda still exploits two mutually exclusive attitudes: 1) sanctions are aggression, a “hybrid war” against Belarus, the restrictions are illegal and cause harm; 2) sanctions are beneficial, stimulate the development of the country’s economy, thanks to them Belarus becomes more independent.
An example of such inconsistency is a quote from an article by pro-government expert Vadzim Yelfimau. At the beginning, he makes traditional claims reflecting the grievances of the political ruling class of Belarus against the sanctions, but a paragraph later he “thanks” the West for them:
“Everything that is going on today under the guise of these or those sanctions is absolutely illegal and represents the arbitrariness of certain, albeit the most brazen countries.
The West does not learn the lessons of history well. They do not realize that sanctions cannot kill us, and what cannot kill us only makes us stronger! And we are developing thanks to sanctions, because they are an additional incentive for us to prove to everyone that we can do what others cannot.” (SB. Belarus Segodnya, October 3)
The main message regarding the sanctions is that Belarus has always sought to establish relations, but the West was the first to “burn bridges” and impose restrictions against it. Propaganda never names the root causes that made the Western countries take this step, namely the complicity of the Lukashenka regime in Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, as well as the brutal suppression of protests, destruction of civil society and the opposition inside the country. In such a propaganda scheme, Belarus is presented as an “innocent victim” and the West as an “aggressor,” trying to undermine the peaceful development of Belarus.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka:
“I have never said that we are interested in worsening relations with the West. It was you who chose this path and started imposing sanctions against us under certain pretexts.” (BBC interview, October 22)
Speaking at the Dazhynki-2024 festival in Valozhyn, Lukashenka told the audience from the stage about his another secret conversation with unnamed “representatives of the West” and claimed that they were “jealous of Belarus”:
“I realized, talking to them, how closely they watch us. How meticulously they look for, study our mistakes and our successes. And when there’s no media, they speak honestly and frankly. You know, they envy us. Jealous of our ability to work, to live, to celebrate. They envy us because we, a small country by standards, have found our own path of development and have followed it with dignity.”
At the same festival, Lukashenka addressed Poland, Lithuania and Latvia with a proposal to build relations “neighborly”, but immediately started threatening:
“If you don’t want to, you don’t have to. We will find other countries with which we will develop cooperation. But if we leave you, you will not come back to us.
- Strengthening of anti-Polish rhetoric
According to the propagandists’ version, Poland and the Baltic states are the main foreign policy opponents of Belarus, and this ideological line is getting stronger as we get closer to the election. According to the main propaganda narrative, Poland is just waiting for an opportunity to attack Belarus and Ukraine and take away their western lands.
Aliaksei Audonin, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies:
“They [Poles] have some kind of bzik-idea [idea-fix] that they will attack Belarus, reach Moscow, ruin it and live on the ruined [lands] for a hundred years. We understand perfectly well that this illusion can turn out in the most deplorable way.” (Telegram channel of propagandist of Belarus Segodnya Lyudmila Hladkaya, October 8).
Aleh Haidukevich, deputy of the National Assembly:
“We have not been attacked so far – neither by Poland, nor by NATO, nor by the West in general – not because they don’t want to. They would have invaded long ago, taken away sovereignty, and there are many such examples in the world because [they] are not afraid of a response. As long as they are not afraid of the response, they always attack, so if we were weak … they would have attacked long ago.” (Sputnik Belarus, October 7)
Aliaksei Dzermant, pro-government and pro-Russian “expert”:
“Polish society is beginning to crack. On the one hand – by militaristic rhetoric, hatred towards its neighbors, and on the other hand – they let in just anyone from Ukraine. […] And what did Poland achieve? It quarreled with its neighbors, and launched the virus of Banderism inside itself. And it will continue to destroy this state.” (ONT, October 10)
On October 29, another defector – pro-Russian journalist Yury Alekseyev – escaped from Latvia to Belarus. In Latvia, he was the editor-in-chief of the pro-Russian website Imhoclub.lv, which, according to the authorities, “plays a certain role in strengthening Russian information influence in Latvia.” In January 2023, the Riga District Court sentenced Alekseyev to one year and one month in prison for inciting hatred and trafficking child pornography, and imposed a one-year term of probation. Aliaksei Dzermant commented as follows:
“My longtime friend and comrade, and in journalistic affairs also a teacher, Yury Alekseyev, chose Belarus to escape from Latvian “justice.” He likes our socio-political model.”
On October 22-24, the BRICS summit was held in Kazan. Among other guests, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres attended the summit and respectfully shook hands and even hugged Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The very fact of Guterres’ visit to Russia and his friendly meetings with the two dictators caused a serious resonance and condemnation in the world. But the state propaganda of Belarus took this visit with delight. Lukashenka himself, speaking after the BRICS summit at the II Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security on October 31, expressed his support for the UN Secretary General and said that the “relentless attacks” on Guterres “have nothing to do with democracy.”
In the same speech, Lukashenka said that there was a “new democratic trend” in the world — “to scare the heads of sovereign states with the International Criminal Court,” referring to the attempts of democratic states to bring him, as well as Russian and Belarusian officials and propagandists, to international responsibility.
- Elections in Lithuania, Georgia and Moldova
In October, propaganda paid much attention to elections in Lithuania, Georgia and Moldova, making no secret of its sympathies for pro-Russian and Eurosceptic political forces.
The Yellow Leaks Telegram channel, which is close to security agencies, called the results of the parliamentary elections in Lithuania a “complete failure” for the ruling party, but complained that it is unlikely that “the new masters of the Lithuanian parliament” will fundamentally change foreign policy and “start pumping weapons into Lithuania, spending all the money on them.”
Anonymous authors of this channel also claimed that in Georgia, “the pro-Western opposition lost the election with a bang” despite the fact that their “masters” had been pouring “a lot of money into them for 20 years to turn friendly Georgia into a Russophobic plague barracks.” “Political analyst” of the Minskaya Prauda newspaper Andrei Lazutkin, in his turn, tries to whitewash the reputation of the Georgian pro-Russian party Georgian Dream, claiming that it is a party of capital, ”which acts as it pleases.”
He was supported by columnist Yury Uvarau, who criticizes Western media for allegedly easily labeling Georgian Dream as “pro-Russian” and then starting to harass it. Columnist of the SB. Belarus Segodnya newspaper Anton Papou believes that “a Maidan, and in fact a massacre,” is already being prepared in Georgia, and the militants “are only waiting for a signal to come out against the Georgian police.
Also in October, pro-government commentators actively discussed the election in Moldova. They again made no secret of their sympathies for the pro-Russian candidates and sharply criticized the possibility of the country choosing the “European path.” The same propagandist Anton Papou predicts a “Maidan from above” for Moldova, suggesting that incumbent president and election candidate Maia Sandu “will try to plunge the country into the abyss of a coup just to hold on to power and not to let down the Western masters.”
“Political analyst” Aliaksei Dzermant called Moldova “Eurasia” and urged opposition candidates to unite to “bring down this puppet [Maia Sandu] and put [pro-Russian candidate] Alexandr Stoianoglo into the presidency.”
Nevolfovich, a Telegram channel linked to Belarusian security forces, believes that Moldovans “understand perfectly well that European integration is a path to war with Russia” and do not want to “become a tool in the geopolitical games of the United States.”
Propagandists also claimed that the Moldovan election would be rigged. Lyudmila Hladkaya, SB. Belarus Segodnya:
“That’s exactly where Sandu is leading the people of Moldova – to nowhere of the ‘garden of Eden.’ The same one who is already preparing ballot fraud. The same one that treats her own citizens like nothing and shuts their mouths.” (Personal Telegram channel, October 9)
After Maya Sandu’s victory, pro-government “expert” Vadzim Yalfimau called the election a “meaningless show” because among the 11 candidates, there was “not a single truly opposition candidate advocating integration with Russia and the Union State.”
iSANS will continue to analyze main propaganda trends in Belarus and Russia throughout 2024.
The article is available in Russian.
