“Trump did in one month what Putin couldn’t do in 25 years — he divided and weakened the West”. In the first quarter of 2025, Belarusian state propaganda made a sharp turn: the U.S. ceased to be an “enemy” and was suddenly portrayed as being “in the same boat” with Russia and Belarus.
At the same time, however, pro-government rhetoric is amplifying fears about Trump’s unpredictability and includes calls to align more closely with China. The topic of a “peaceful resolution” to the war in Ukraine is also resurfacing — Lukashenka is aiming to secure a seat at the negotiating table.
These and other key trends are covered in the quarterly analytical review.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I. BELARUS
- In early 2025, “presidential election” was held in Belarus, resulting in Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s power being extended for another five years. The fact that the “election” passed peacefully and in full accordance with the authorities’ script is largely due to propaganda. The efforts of the propaganda media during this period were aimed at maintaining the image of the dictator as the no-alternative candidate, intimidating the audience with an “internal threat” in the form of opposition-minded Belarusians, and an “external threat” in the form of the “hostile West.”
- As the political regime’s dependence on the Kremlin grows, propagandists increasingly idealize friendship with Russia. However, the “president” himself regularly makes it clear in public that Belarus has no intention of becoming part of Russia. He hinted at this quite clearly in March, speaking to Russian MPs in Moscow.
- Propagandists praise the “president” for preventing the Belarusian army from directly participating in the war.
II. BELARUS’S DEMOCRATIC FORCES
- The Lukashenka regime continues to view Belarusian democratic forces as the main “internal” threat. During this period, the main propaganda efforts were aimed at discrediting and dividing the democratic movement.
- In March, the process of pardoning political prisoners was suspended. Propagandists openly state that their release will only resume in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.
- The Belarusian regime intimidates “those who left” with various punishments and at the same time persistently persuades them to return to their homeland. Lukashenka publicly threatens their relatives who stayed in Belarus.
III. UKRAINE
- “Unexpected help.” Since late January, the number of news stories related to Ukraine has risen sharply due to the activities of the new U.S. President Donald Trump, who is convinced that he can end the war. Trump and his team are putting pressure on Ukraine while flirting with Putin’s regime. The conflict with long-standing strategic partners (Canada, Mexico, the European Union, etc.) and the coercion of Ukraine into a peace deal have given propagandists a reason to dream of an “alliance between Russia, the U.S., and Belarus against Europe.”
- The number of statements against Ukraine in state-controlled media during the first three months of 2025 decreased, giving way to calls for an end to hostilities and peace talks.
- The hostility of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is also decreasing. Instead of aggressive narratives about the start of the full-scale invasion and the “denazification” of Ukraine, a new, more peaceful narrative is being promoted, claiming that Ukraine is part of the “Slavic brotherhood” together with Russia and Belarus and must return to it.
- A new “peaceful” line: after the end of hostilities, Belarus will rebuild the regions of Ukraine damaged by the Russian occupation. This may indicate the authorities’ desire to avoid responsibility for their complicity in the aggression.
IV. THE WEST
- The most irreconcilable part of the propaganda pool is skeptical of any of Trump’s actions and urges people not to trust him under any circumstances.
- Propaganda continues to reinforce Lukashenka’s legitimacy through anti-Western narratives. It calls on audiences to unite around the national “leader” in the face of an “external threat.”
- Belarus’s closest neighbors – Poland and the Baltic states – are the main targets of anti-Western propaganda.
- Threats with nuclear weapons against the West continue.
V. THE EAST
- Some sceptical propagandists urge people not to trust Trump (or the West in general) under any circumstances and to pursue an alliance with Russia and strengthen relations with China, North Korea and Iran.
PREFACE
Lukashenka’s propaganda in the first quarter of 2025 can easily be divided into two stages – before Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency and after.
If, until January 20 (Trump’s inauguration), propaganda’s hopes and expectations were mainly built around an alliance with Russia, then after Trump’s return, America unexpectedly joined this “alliance” in propagandists’ narratives. The transformation of the U.S. from Ukraine’s defender to a player on Putin’s side, quarrels with its closest strategic neighbors and partners, America’s self-removal from the defense of Europe and, in general, from the defense of democracy in the world – all this in the first three months of Trump’s presidency caused first distrust and then delight in Moscow and Minsk. Perhaps the best expression of this joyful distrust was the comment by propagandist Vadzim Hihin: “Who would have thought that Russia and the U.S. would end up in the same boat!” Trump gave the regime’s actors hope that everything would now go according to Moscow’s (and Minsk’s) script.
During the preparation and conduct of the so-called “presidential election” in Belarus (January 26), a struggle against the “main threat” – Belarusian democratic forces – was underway on the ideological front. Here, Trump came to the rescue: one of his first decrees was to destroy USAID, the U.S. Federal Agency for International Development, and to shut down other similar programs supporting democracy and protecting human rights, thereby striking a blow to the democratic movement around the world.
Trump’s abrupt and self-assured actions, aimed, in his view, at establishing peace between Russia and Ukraine, looked like the opening of the “second front” against Ukraine. This is exactly how they were perceived by pro-Kremlin propaganda. Washington suspended military, intelligence, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, forced it into a slave deal on rare earth metals, insulted the Ukrainian president, demanded presidential election, discussed the terms of a deal with Russia behind Ukraine’s back, and repeated the Kremlin’s anti-Ukrainian propaganda cliches.
Trump also said that the U.S. would no longer defend Europe, in fact leaving its strategic partners alone to face the Russian threat.
All this radically changed the propaganda narrative. Instead of cursing the U.S. as the main potential enemy, pro-Kremlin media began praising the U.S. president, joyfully dividing post-war Ukraine with him, dreaming of the return of business to Russia and Belarus, and talking about an “alliance between Russia, Belarus, and the U.S.”
Only a few skeptics urged people not to trust Trump and feared the same easy reversal by the American president (which is pretty much what happened in the second half of April). They urged people not to “harbour illusions” because America would “deceive anyway,” and to focus on old and trusted allies – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
This study is not an exhaustive and detailed review of all the meanings, storylines, and nuances of Lukashenka’s propaganda during the period under review. Every day, tons of hatred and dirt continue to flow from the screens of television and the pages of the state press in Belarus – against Ukraine, European countries, and Belarusian defenders of democracy. iSANS does not aim to analyze the entire volume of statements and comments made by propagandists. The aim of the study is to classify and describe the main directions and lines of propaganda in the first quarter of 2025.
The full quarterly analytical report on propaganda in Belarus for the first quarter of 2025 can be read or downloaded VIA THE LINK.
Материал доступен на русском языке: Лукашенко между Трампом и Путиным. Беларусская пропаганда в первом квартале 2025 года
