EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I. BELARUS
- At the end of 2024, the efforts of the Minsk propaganda were aimed at ensuring a successful and trouble-free “presidential” election with a guaranteed victory of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The absence of independent candidates was presented as a sign of a “healthy” political process. Despite the importance of the topic, the state-controlled channels tried to pay as little attention to the election as possible, suppressing any broad political discussions.
- During the election period, vows of eternal friendship and “alliance” with Russia and praises for Lukashenka were especially loud. Propagandists proclaimed him the “leader of the Russian world” on a par with Putin.
- At the same time, Lukashenka himself denies the possibility of a takeover (annexation) of Belarus by Russia and says that he will not allow it. The propaganda speaks about independence, identity and sovereignty of Belarus.
II. BELARUS’ DEMOCRATIC FORCES
- Lukashenka pardoned a number of political prisoners and removed the most prominent political prisoners from the incommunicado regime hoping for an easing of Western sanctions, as well as wanting to present himself as a generous politician before the election.
- State media of Belarus continue the campaign of discredit, disinformation and intimidation of supporters of democratic changes.
III. WAR IN UKRAINE
- The regime in Minsk has to demonstrate its full support for Russia in the “Ukrainian issue,” but irritation with the “foreign” war near its borders is accumulating in government circles. The propagandists and, above all, Lukashenka himself, are calling louder and louder for peace talks.
- Although Lukashenka supports Russia and opposes Ukraine in words, he tries to put all the responsibility for the aggression on Putin.
- State-controlled commentators insist that these negotiations should take place in Belarus, which should become a rightful participant in them.
- A new propaganda narrative: Belarus should rebuild post-war Ukraine.
IV. THE WEST
- The U.S. presidential election temporarily overshadowed other news and discussions in the media in Russia and Belarus. This time, “experts” accepted Donald Trump’s return to the presidency much more discreetly than in 2016.
- Anti-Polish and anti-Baltic narratives dominate in the anti-Western propaganda.
- In December, two “spy” propaganda films against Poland were screened.
V. EVENTS IN GEORGIA
- Propaganda welcomed the victory of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party in the parliamentary election in Georgia. The protests that erupted as a result were traditionally described by propagandists as an attempt to hold a “Maidan” organized by “Western puppeteers.”
VI. EVENTS IN MOLDOVA
- Despite the Kremlin’s extensive disinformation campaign against Moldova, democratic candidate Maia Sandu won the November presidential election.
- Pro-Kremlin media continue their discrediting policy against Moldova.
VII. EVENTS IN SYRIA
- The victory of the armed opposition and the rapid change of power in Syria was unambiguously interpreted by propaganda as “Russia’s defeat.”
PREFACE
The words put in the headline belong to Aliaksandr Shpakouski, a pro-government “expert,” a frequent commentator of Belarusian events on Russian political talk shows. The “presidential” election in Belarus, which took place at the end of January 2025, made Belarusian propagandists to work harder in search of new semantic lines to strengthen the cult of personality of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. As a result, they agreed to the point of proclaiming him a “great Russian politician” and even a “leader of the Russian world” along with Vladimir Putin.
During the entire period of preparation for the election, Lukashenka’s propaganda machine was preoccupied with preventing “the nightmare of 2020” – mass protests against the rigged results of the previous “presidential” election, demanding a change of power.
Although there could be no danger this time – as a result of the political repression that followed the 2020 protests, civil society was crushed, free media were destroyed, and democratic leaders and activists were forced out of the country or imprisoned. As a result, there could be no real independent candidates in the 2025 election. Instead of them, “alternative candidates” were selected to play the role of Lukashenka’s competitors and to create an impression of legitimacy of the electoral process by their presence. All of them were in one way or another connected with the incumbent regime. But even this was not enough – despite the complete predictability of the election, it was necessary to bring as many voters as possible to the polling stations in order to show a large turnout and “popular support” for Lukashenka “on the international arena.”
Thus, the tasks of the propaganda media of Belarus in the pre-election period at the end of 2024–beginning of 2025 can be described as follows:
– strengthening the image of Lukashenka as the only, irreplaceable candidate, “father (Batska) of Belarus” (propagandist Ihar Tur spoke separately about the difference between ‘father’ and ‘Batska’), “peacemaker” and “conciliator of peoples”;
– increasing efforts to further discredit Belarusian democratic forces, civil activists and independent media;
– support of the image of “sinless,” innocent Belarus, a fortress surrounded by enemies, the population of which should unite around the savior of the nation in the face of an external enemy.
In this analytical report, we tried to illustrate all these three directions of efforts of Belarusian propaganda during the pre-election period.
This study is not an exhaustive, detailed review of all the meanings, storylines and nuances of Lukashenka’s propaganda during the period under consideration. Every day tons of toxicity, hatred and dirt continue to be spread from the TV screens and from the pages of the state press of Belarus – against Ukraine, Western countries or on the Belarusian defenders of democracy. The iSANS monitoring does not aim to cover the whole volume of statements and utterances of propagandists in detail. The task of this research is to analyze and show the main directions and lines of propaganda in the third quarter of 2024.
The entire report can be read or downloaded from this link.
The report is also available in Russian.
Материал доступен на русском языке: «Александр Лукашенко – лидер русского мира»: беларусская пропаганда в предвыборный период конца 2024 года
