The main event related to combat training in May was the announcement of a review of the parameters of the West-2025 drills. It was announced that the number of participants would be reduced by almost half and that the main areas of the drills would be moved to training grounds deeper inside Belarus. Despite attempts to present the decision as an exclusively peaceful gesture, it is more likely that Russia’s resources for participating in the drills are limited.
The month was full of events related to rearmament. The Belarusian Armed Forces received new fighter jets and helicopters from Russia. In turn, Belarusian enterprises of the military-industrial complex supplied the troops with modernized armored personnel carriers and communications equipment. It should be noted that the deliveries were scheduled or were already in progress.
The situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border did not change significantly. Units of the Special Operations Forces and the Internal Troops continue to be deployed there. The total number of the group is estimated at up to 2000 people. These units do not pose a military threat to Ukraine.
May was active in the field of territorial defense. Training sessions with the territorial troops were held in four regions. The trend of paying greater attention to the organization of territorial defense in the border regions of Belarus continues. Such regions will have less time for mobilization deployment of the territorial troops during the period of threat.
The number of entries of Russian UAVs of the Shahed type into Belarusian airspace increased sixfold compared to April. In May, 24 cases were recorded. There were no reports of any being shot down. It is currently impossible to predict whether the UAVs will stop flying into Belarus completely. There is no reason to believe that this will happen in the near future.
No new information has been received regarding the deployment of TNW in Belarus. It should be noted, however, that the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service denies that such weapons have been deployed on Belarusian territory. Despite statements by official representatives of the Lukashenka regime, there is still no reliable information about the actual deployment of TNW in the country.
A similar situation can be observed with the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system. Belarusian authorities have only stated that preparations are underway for its deployment. Ukrainian intelligence also does not confirm the presence of the system in Belarus.
The main event of the Belarusian military-industrial complex was the 12th International Exhibition of Arms and Military Equipment MILEX-2025. More than 150 companies from Belarus, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and India presented their products at the exhibition. More than 750 models of weapons, military and special equipment manufactured in Belarus were presented.
The general direction of the national security measures implemented by the Lukashenka regime indicates an increasing (in the regime’s opinion) probability of Belarus’s participation in the war. At the same time, the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in military actions on Russia’s side still looks unlikely.
The situation with the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus did not change fundamentally in May compared to previous months. As of June 1, 2025, the number of the Russian military in Belarus can be estimated at ≈ 2000 people. One An-26 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces is deployed at Baranavichy airfield.
The main factor that could significantly change the situation with the Russian military presence in Belarus remains the West-2025 drills. Their active phase will take place on September 12-16. Recent statements indicate that Russia’s participation in the maneuvers in Belarus will be limited.
Contents
1. Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus
1.1. Combat training
1.2. Movement of troops by rail. Aviation activity
1.3. Military commissariats
1.4. Territorial defense
1.5. Training of the mobilization reserve
1.6. Rearmament of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Work of the military-industrial complex
1.7. Military infrastructure development. Formation of new units. Training of military personnel
1.8. Tactical nuclear weapons. Oreshnik missile system
1.9. Amendments to legislation in the military sphere
1.10. International military cooperation
1.11. Parades on May 9
1.12. MILEX-2025 exhibition
2. Internal Troops. Border guard authorities
2.1. Internal Troops
2.2. Border guard authorities
3. Group deployed in the border regions of Belarus
3.1. Border with Ukraine
3.2. Border with NATO member states: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia
4. Violation of Belarus’s airspace by Russian UAVs
5. Russia’s military activity in Belarus
5.1. Russian group in Belarus
5.2. Aviation activity
5.3. PMC Wagner
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Материал доступен на русском языке: Обзор военной активности в Беларуси за май 2025
