This document contains information on preparations for the Zapad-2025 joint strategic drills in Belarus from August 27 to September 12. A previous review of preparations for the drills is provided in the briefing dated August 26, 2025, “Zapad-2025 joint strategic drills: locations, forces involved, and possible scenarios for completion.
Key points:
- Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus to participate in the Zapad-2025 drills: eight aircraft (2 Su-30 and 6 Su-34) at Lida airfield and five helicopters at Machulishchy airfield.
- From the Ground Forces, units of the 4th Tank Division of the Russian Armed Forces arrived back in August. At the same time, units of the 71st Motorized Rifle Division and the 98th Airborne Division, which previously participated in the Interaction-2025 CSTO drills, remain in Belarus. Assuming that they will also participate in the joint strategic drills, the Russian contingent at the drills in Belarus currently numbers ≈400 military personnel.
- No large-scale troop transfers were observed before the drills: the number of trains with equipment and personnel of the Russian Armed Forces arriving in Belarus to participate in the Zapad-2025 drills was about ten times less than during the Zapad-2021 maneuvers.
Approximate locations of the Zapad-2025 drills
- A number of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces are participating in the drills, including mechanized, artillery, electronic warfare, logistics, aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, and others.
- The locations of the drills have not changed significantly – they will be held at the Barysauski (where the active phase will take place) and Liasishcha training grounds, as well as fortified areas in the Vaukavysk and Smarhon directions. Baranavichy, Machulishchy, and Lida airfields, as well as a highway airstrip, will also be used. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense specified that the maneuvers will take place at training grounds located deep in the country and in the east.
- On the night of September 9-10, at least 19 Russian UAVs, including Shahed and Gerbera simulators, flew into Poland; part of them were shot down, and debris was found in five voivodeships. That night, ≈27 UAVs flew into Belarusian airspace: up to seven of them could have flown to Poland. Fighters and helicopters of the Belarusian Armed Forces were raised to intercept the UAVs.
- In our opinion, the most likely scenario for the conclusion of the drills will be the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus to Russia, and aggression against Ukraine and/or NATO member states is unlikely. However, provocations cannot be ruled out in the near future – for example, the use of UAVs and short-term violations of airspace and other similar actions.
Contents
1. Russian Armed Forces contingent in Belarus
2. Units of the Belarusian Armed Forces involved in the joint strategic drills.
3. Locations of the Zapad-2025 joint strategic drills
4. Russian UAVs in Poland
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Материал доступен на русском языке: Актуальная ситуация перед началом учений «Запад-2025» в Беларуси
