Media reports have highlighted a sharp increase in gasoline exports from Belarus to Russia, which reached a historic high of 141 thousand tonnes during the first 25 days of June. A chart showing monthly gasoline exports throughout the previous year has also been published.
It is noteworthy, however, that overall exports of petroleum products from Belarus declined in June compared with May and, when measured on an average daily basis, are at their lowest level since November 2025 (excluding April 2026). Overall exports are currently approximately at the same level as in June 2025. Therefore, there are no grounds to claim that gasoline production has increased sharply to supply the Russian market. Rather, the available data indicate a redirection of exports from third-country markets to Russia.
Such reorientation is economically rational under the current market conditions. Gasoline from Belarus is sold in Russia at RUB 127,000 per tonne, or approximately USD 1,620 per tonne. By comparison, A-95 gasoline on the world’s major commodity exchanges was trading at around USD 1,100 per tonne in May, while prices likely declined further in June along with crude oil prices. Given the relatively low transportation costs, redirecting Belarusian gasoline exports to the Russian market has a clear economic rationale and does not require political decisions.
At the same time, the overall decline in Belarusian gasoline exports deserves attention. Several factors may explain this:
- Maintenance work at Belarusian oil refineries. The current period is the regular maintenance season, and some processing units are temporarily shut down for servicing.
- Increased domestic gasoline consumption. Against the backdrop of reports about a gasoline shortage in Russia, Belarus may also have experienced a surge in precautionary demand.
- Processing under tolling arrangements. Information on the volumes processed under such schemes may not be reflected in the published statistics, since ownership of the products does not change. Under this operating model, only a very limited number of organizations or individuals have access to this information.
Conclusions
Gasoline exports from Belarus to Russia did indeed reach record levels in June. However, this reflects a redirection of exports from other markets rather than an increase in production specifically aimed at supplying the Russian market.
The economic attractiveness of supplying the Russian market is currently at its highest level and may indicate that these changes in export flows are driven by commercial rather than political considerations.
It remains possible that the available data are incomplete and do not capture petroleum product shipments processed under tolling arrangements.
Материал доступен на русском языке: Пастаўкі бензіна ў Расію ў чэрвені 2026
