The main source of energy statistics in Belarus has been the statistical digest “Energy Balance” (hereinafter referred to as the Digest), which the National Statistical Committee has published annually. The information is presented in the form of tables of time series and energy balances.
But starting in 2021, Belstat stopped publishing the digest. Therefore, the data after 2020 are not official and are the result of collection from unofficial sources. Data is collected from various sources and often do not correspond to one other. This explains the discrepancy in the graphs and balance of energy resources. In addition, various sources provide data at different times, so some data is available until 2023, and some only until 2022.
The general background for the analysis of 2023 in macroeconomic terms is GDP growth by 3.9% and a population decline of almost 60,000 people.
In 2020, the heating season was the mildest, and in 2021, on the contrary, the coldest. The 2022 heating season was closer to average values. In 2023, it can be said that the heating season was normal for our latitudes, but slightly warmer than in 2022. Therefore, a reduction in the consumption of some types of fuel used in heating is likely.
Belarus’ energy intensity continues to stagnate, with no visible progress in the long term (virtually no change since 2015). Usually, as GDP increases, energy intensity decreases, but this did not happen in 2023. This situation can be explained by the fact that the main driver of GDP was industry as a more energy-intensive sector of the economy.
The SDG 7.2.1 achievement indicator – renewable energy consumption as a percentage of total final energy consumption – has significantly decreased and returned to 2019 values. It seems that with the shutdown of new projects using renewable energy sources, the authorities have returned to using existing equipment.
The installed capacity of energy production from renewable sources (in watts per capita) also remains virtually unchanged. A small increase is more likely due to a decrease in the population than the introduction of new capacities. The increase in capacity in 2022 was almost entirely determined by the Rechitsa solar power plant, which was launched and then seized, nationalized, and now essentially has capacity, but is not producing electricity. In reality then this indicator has remained unchanged since 2020.
After the launch of the nuclear power plant, the energy self-sufficiency indicator has increased sharply and already reaches almost 30%. However, if we do not consider nuclear power plants as a local source of energy (fuel for nuclear power plants is imported), then it can be said that efforts to strengthen energy independence have practically ceased.
In 2023, GDP growth concentrated in the most energy-intensive sectors led to an increase in electricity consumption to 41.1 billion kWh. However, even taking this into account, electricity consumption compared to 2021 increased mainly due to the population’s use of electricity for electric heating.
Data on electricity consumption for electric transport is also known – 17 million kWh. In terms of electricity consumption, this is still an insignificant figure.
Starting in 2021, the volume of imports has been decreasing annually. This is primarily due to the launch and increase in electricity production at nuclear power plants.
