Key events
The diagnostic work on the sensors of the supporting systems for the 2nd unit of the Belarusian NPP has been completed. After confirming all safety parameters, the unit was put back into operation on January 24, 2025. Officially, the shutdown of the unit occurred on December 19, 2024. However, anonymous sources from the station suggest that the actual shutdown took place between December 3 and 6, 2024.
The 1st unit of the Belarusian NPP was reconnected to the grid after scheduled maintenance, as reported by Viktor Karankevich on January 27, 2025. The unit had been stopped for scheduled maintenance on December 3, 2024. The maintenance lasted 55 days, which exceeded the planned duration of 30-32 days.
Belarus has set maximum permissible tariffs for housing and communal services for 2025 through a decree of the President. As a result, housing and communal payments for the population per standard apartment will increase by Br21 ($6.5) in 2025. Previously, tariffs were set by resolutions from the Council of Ministers or the Ministry of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade. However, in 2025, these tariffs will be introduced through a presidential decree. The reasons for these changes remain unclear.
Grodno CHPP-2 is set to undergo a large-scale reconstruction of its turbogenerator. The turbine rotor has already been delivered to the station, and the stator is currently being transported. The main goal of the project is to replace outdated equipment that has been in operation for over 50 years, eliminating the use of hydrogen in the electric generator. The first unit was equipped with a 70 MW turbine from the Ural Turbine Plant, which is still operational today, and it is likely that the plant will supply the new equipment as well.
The Gezgali Hydroelectric Power Station has successfully completed its start-up operations following major repairs and is now operating normally. The station has an installed capacity of 720 kVA and an average annual output of 1,300 thousand kW.
In 2024, the Svetlogorsk Drilling Department team drilled a record total of 280,714 meters of rock, marking the highest figure in its entire history. Furthermore, in December 2024, a new monthly penetration record was set at 32,734 meters. The previous annual record of 222,034 meters was achieved in 2023, while another monthly penetration record of 31,250 meters was established in November 2024.
Minister of Energy Kushnarenko stated that in 2024, charging stations consumed twice as much electricity as in the previous year.
The development program of Naftan refinery until 2035 includes areas such as the development of petrochemical production and oil production.
Statistics and data
In 2024, the NPP generated approximately 15.7 TWh of electricity, nearly 4 TWh more than in 2023. Under full load and normal operating conditions, the plant was expected to produce around 18.5 TWh.
In 2024, electricity consumption increased by 5% compared to 2023, reaching 43 TWh. Consumption for electric heating rose to 880 GWh, marking a 34% increase from the previous year. Additionally, around 1.7 million square meters of modern electric-heated housing were constructed.
The tariff for oil transportation services via the main pipelines of the Belarusian enterprise Gomeltransneft Druzhba on the Unecha (Vysokoe) – Adamova Zastava route will be 698.48 Russian rubles per net ton. For the Unecha (Vysokoe) – Brody and Unecha (Vysokoe) – Belarus-Ukraine border routes, the tariff will be 239.52 Russian rubles per net ton.
Belarus has reduced export duties on certain petroleum products. As of January 1, the export duty on liquefied petroleum gases has been lowered to $18.5 per ton (previously $61.7), while the duty on ethane, butane, and isobutane has been reduced to $16.6 per ton (previously $55.5). Export duty rates for crude oil, straight-run gasoline, propylene trimers and tetramers, light and medium distillates, diesel fuel, commercial gasoline, benzene, toluene, xylenes, fuel oil, lubricating oils, waste petroleum products, petroleum jelly and paraffin, petroleum coke, and petroleum bitumen remain at zero.
In 2024, the Electric Networks branches of RUE Brestenergo installed 21,049 energy-saving lamps in populated areas, exceeding the planned 17,829 units and demonstrating an accelerated implementation pace. By 2026, the plan is to replace over 44,000 lamps in more than 2,000 populated areas across the Brest region with energy-efficient alternatives.
Information about the active transition to wood pellet usage has been published. As part of the State Program «Comfortable Housing and Favorable Environment», two heat sources were commissioned in the Mozyr District, and the boiler house of Fire Emergency Rescue Unit No. 2 in Turov was modernized. In the Minsk region, 38 boilers running on wood fuel pellets were put into operation in forestry and housing and communal services organizations in 2024.
The active promotion of pellet usage began after the introduction of sanctions on the purchase of wood products from Belarus in the EU. As a result, production capacities lost their sales markets, and now, small boiler houses are actively being built in Belarus to generate demand for these products.
Statements
Energy Minister Kushnarenko stated that by 2030, electricity demand in Belarus could reach 47 GWh. We will examine the probability and rationale behind this forecast in the topic of the issue.
Topic of the Issue: Electricity consumption forecast and its purpose.
Energy Minister Kushnarenko stated that by 2030, the demand for electricity in Belarus could reach 47 ТWh. The magic number 47 is being talked about again.
In the period 2008-2012 there was an official forecast that by 2020 electricity consumption would reach 47 ТWh. Based on this forecast, the decision was made to build a nuclear power plant.
This forecast is based on the rapid economic recovery growth of the 2000s, when after the collapse of the USSR the economy began to recover, creating economic value chains supported by foreign investment and economic reforms of the 90s. But in order to get a forecast of 47 ТWh in 2020, it was necessary to assume that the economic trend of 2001-2008 would continue in the future, which was very optimistic for that time. The graph shows the only forecast option that allowed us to get 47 GWh in 2020.
Several recent statements indicate that there is a discussion and attempt to justify the construction of a new NPP or at least one more unit. And it seems that a short period of time with the highest rate of growth in electricity consumption is again being used for this task.
If we use linear extrapolation for the period 2019-2024, we can get about 47 ТWh by 2030, as the minister said. However, such a forecast does not stand up to any criticism
Firstly, even in this period, the growth is very unstable.
Secondly, in the consumed 43 ТWh in 2024, almost 1 GW is the growth in consumption for electric heating, which is subsidized by almost 80%. Continuing to increase electricity consumption in this way will cost the financial stability of the Belarusian energy system dearly.
Thirdly, it is necessary to take into account the long-term trend in the economy and in the energy sector, and not just periods of sharp growth in electricity consumption, some of which are caused by artificial stimulation of consumption or reorientation to the production of heavy engineering (when working on a military order from Russia).
And even if 47 TWh were reached, this was the target indicator for the trouble-free operation of one NPP with two 1000 MW units. It does not allow us to talk about the possibility of building additional units. The installed 2 1200 MW units created serious problems for the energy sector and required the construction of electric boiler houses for almost 1 GW to be able to maintain the balance.
That is, even if today’s record rates of electricity consumption are maintained, by 2030 only the conditions for the normal operation of the already built nuclear power plant will be created. To operate the additional capacity of the nuclear power plant, a significant increase in energy consumption is required. And there is no point in considering the construction of even one unit before 2035 under a very optimistic scenario of consumption growth, and probably not before 2045.
Statements about plans to build a second NPP and the announcement of very optimistic consumption forecasts show that the decision to build new units will be based on political decisions, not technical calculations.
