Belarus Review by iSANS — September 23, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 35)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).

During the period under review, the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border has remained unchanged.

At the beginning of September, a delegation of the Armed Forces of Russia was on a working visit in in Minsk. One of the goals of the visit was preparation for the joint strategic military exercise of Belarus and Russia Zapad-2024. In particular, a reconnaissance (visual study) of the troop deployment sites for the period of the exercise was conducted. In February 2024, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin said that in 2025, exercises of the so-called “regional grouping of troops” of Belarus and Russia would be held on the territory of Belarus. In early September, a similar statement was made by State Secretary of the Security Council Alaksandr Valfovich.

On the night of September 15 to September 16, a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle of the type Shahed 136/131 flew into the territory of Belarus. Later, it returned to Ukraine. The Belarusian Air Force was not used to intercept the drone.

On September 17, Aliaksandr Lukashenka spoke for the first time about Russian drones flying into the airspace of Belarus. The politician stated that both Russian and Ukrainian drones fly into the airspace of Belarus. For more details, please see the PROPAGANDA chapter of this Review.

On September 18, the Coordination Committee for Air Defense under the Council of Defense Ministers of the CIS member states began its meeting in Minsk. The meeting considered issues of improving the unified air defense system of the CIS member states, as well as strengthening bilateral and multilateral military cooperation in the field of air defense. Also, the issues of carrying out joint air defense combat duty within the framework of the Unified Regional Air Defense System of Russia and Belarus were discussed.

On September 20, servicemen of the 4^th Separate Tank Battalion of the 19^th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Belarus went to the 333^rd combat training center (Mulino training ground, Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia) to train in the “joint training center” of the Armed Forces of Belarus and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The Belarusian military will be trained for a month. According to the battalion commander, “We will learn the experience of combat operations from our [Russian] colleagues”.

On September 20, the Defense Ministry of Belarus stated that the Belarusian military successfully conducted rocket launches from the B-300 Polonez-M multiple-launch rocket system, successfully hitting the target at a distance of 300 kilometers. The launches were carried out at one of the firing ranges in Russia.

On September 21, it was reported that a delegation of the Russian Armed Forces was on a working visit to Belarus. As part of the visit, Andrej Burdyka, Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics – Head of Logistics of the Armed Forces of Belarus, had a working meeting with the Russian delegation headed by Pavel Fradkov, Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia. According to open sources, Fradkov supervises the management of property, land resources, and construction of facilities for the needs of the Russian Defense Ministry. The parties discussed bilateral cooperation and interaction between military agencies in specialized areas.

According to the updated information, the 62^nd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96871) is being formed in Hrodna. The most probable reason for the formation of the unit is the new operational Southern Command, which is being created in the Armed Forces of Belarus from 2022.

On September 17, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda signed decrees in which he suggested terminating at least three bilateral agreements with Belarus and Russia. Lithuanian President proposed to terminate the Agreement on Investment Promotion and Protection with Belarus and the same agreement with Russia, both signed in 1999. Moreover, the Head of State proposed to terminate the Agreement on Avoiding Double Taxation signed with Russia. In case of denunciation of the Agreement on Investment Promotion and Protection with Belarus, it will remain valid for a year.

On September 18, it became known that the EU General Court rejected the claim of Belarusian potash fertilizer producer Belaruskali to exclude it from the EU sanctions list. The court decided to keep restrictive measures imposed by the Council of the European Union in place and ordered it to pay legal proceeding fees for its expenses and the expenses of the European Council. On the same day, it was also announced that the applications of the Belarusian Potash Company and the director of Belaruskali Ivan Golovaty to exclude them from the EU sanctions list were also declined. In these proceedings, Latvia supported the EU side. As in the case of Belaruskali, both claimants must bear their personal costs, and the costs of the EU Council incurred in connection to the legal proceedings.

On September 18, the Chairman of the National Anti-Crisis Management of Belarus Pavel Latushka was awarded the Lech Walęsa Prize 2024 for “his sacrifice for democracy and opposing dictatorship”. The prize was delivered to Pavel Latushka by the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radoslaw Sikorski in an award ceremony in Warsaw. In an interview with Radio Svaboda on the occasion of the award ceremony, the Polish Foreign Minister said, answering the question on how Belarusians should not lose hope in the situation when repressions in the country continued for several years, said that in the mid-80s, it felt like the case of Poland is hopeless and in four years “we saw free Poland”. He added that “the regimes seem most stable before their collapse”.

On September 18, YouTube blocked 18 EU-sanctioned Belarusian radio and television accounts at the request of the Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission. In a press release, the Lithuanian media watchdog said that it had asked the platform to take down 18 Belarusian accounts as part of its cooperation with Google. YouTube took down the accounts of the following Belarusian state media channels: ATN news agency, Belarus-1, Belarus-2, Belarus-3, Belarus-5, Belarus-4. Brest, Belarus-4. Vitebsk, Belarus-4. Homel, Belarus-4. Hrodna, Belarus-4. Mahilou, Factor.by, ZonaX, Radius-FM, Radius-FM House, Stalitsa Radio, Radio-1, and Radio Belarus. The request to take down the Belarusian state media accounts from YouTube was made by a Lithuanian watchdog in July of this year.

On September 18, the government of Romania approved the suspension of a double tax avoidance agreement between Romania and Belarus that also provided for the prevention of tax evasion regarding income and capital taxes. According to the Romanian government, the new piece of legislation calls for the total suspension of the application of the provisions of the agreement and an annexed protocol signed in Bucharest on July 22, 1997, and ratified on May 26, 1998. In a statement explaining the step in denouncing the bilateral agreement with Belarus, the Romanian government said that “the Romanian party’s proposal comes in reaction to the decision of the Belarusian government to suspend, from June 1, 2024, to December 31, 2026, three articles of the agreement relating to dividends, interest, and capital gains. The decision of the Belarusian party was notified to the Romanian party on March 22, 2024. The reason given by the Belarusian side is the need to adopt a countermeasure to the ‘unilateral coercive measures illegally imposed, in a coordinated manner, by the EU, US, UK and their allies against Belarus, in contradiction to the UN Charter”.

In a hearing of the Vilnius District Court on September 20, Mantas Danielius was found guilty of espionage charges and sentenced to nine years of imprisonment. Mantas Danielius, a Lithuanian citizen, was arrested in September 2022 on espionage charges for collecting information in the circles of the Belarusian diaspora and Belarusian organizations in Lithuania, cooperating with the Lukashenka’s KGB and passing the collected information to the propagandist Kseniya Lebiadzeva. The court found that Kseniya Lebiadzeva gave concrete tasks to Mantas Danielius on what information should be collected. Besides the information about Belarusian organizations acting in Lithuania, Lebiadzeva asked Danielius to collect information about drills of the Kalinouski regiment, the armament of the regiment, and its chains of supply. In his last statement at the court, Mantas Danielius asked the court to acquit him and drew attention to the fact that in his opinion some witnesses gave false testimony. The court hearing was held behind closed doors and the sentence was announced publicly.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya attended the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session in Warsaw and delivered an address during a panel on Belarus and the Baltic region. In her speech, Tsikhanouskaya highlighted the most pressing issues in and around Belarus and called the current situation a “creeping occupation” in which an “illegitimate dictator is selling the country’s sovereignty to Putin in exchange for political and financial support”. She highlighted the situation of 1,400 political prisoners in Belarus and pointed out that the actions of the Lukashenka regime are against the will of Belarusian people. Also, on the same day, Tsikhanouskaya delivered an address to Belarusians on the occasion of 1,500 days since the start of the 2020 protests. The Belarusian democratic leader stated that despite the notion that in these 1,500 days, everything has been about pain, suffering, and loss, the Belarusian people gained something that cannot be taken away – they “learned, how to stick together and support each other; discovered that solidarity is essential”. Also, during this period, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met USAID Deputy Administrator Ambassador Erin Elisabeth McKee and attended the launch of the USAID Belarus office in Vilnius. During the meeting, the parties discussed US support for independent Belarusian media, human rights defenders, cultural projects, pro-democracy businesses, and educational programs. Tsikhanouskaya also informed the US side about the launch of the International Humanitarian Fund for the support of political prisoners in Belarus, expressing hope that the US would also join the fund’s efforts. The Belarusian democratic leader announced her upcoming visit to the United States from September 22 to September 27. During the visit, she will participate in the high-level week of the 79^th UN General Assembly, and meet with global leaders, representatives of international organizations, and the Belarusian diaspora in the US.

On September 16, human rights activists recognized 22 persons as political prisoners. New political prisoners are accused or have been convicted on the charges of participation in actions grossly violating public order, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. On September 17, seven more persons received the status of political prisoners.

On September 16, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree pardoning 37 persons convicted of “extremist crimes”. According to the “Viasna” Human Rights Center, those were convicted protesters. Lukashenka’s press service called it “a gesture of humanism on the part of the state on the eve of National Unity Day towards those who stumbled”. There were six women among the pardoned. Some of those released had chronic diseases, were disabled, and were retired. “They all repented and asked to be allowed to return to freedom, to lead a law-abiding lifestyle. The petitions of the convicts were additionally scrutinized by the Commission headed by Prosecutor General Andrei Shved,” the press service reports. In early July, Lukashenka promised to release several political prisoners. In the following days, 18 people were released. On August 16, Lukashenka signed a decree pardoning 30 persons, and on September 4 pardoned 30 more persons. In total, 115 persons have been released in the last two and a half months. However, the most famous opponents of the Lukashenka regime, including Maryja Kalesnikava, were not among them. That is even though Kalesnikava’s health condition raises serious concerns. The names of all those released on pardon on September 16 are known to human rights activists.  Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented on the pardoning: “Human rights defenders continue to receive information about new interrogations, arrests, convictions, and fines. New political prisoners emerge. … What kind of national unity is there if, for a year and a half, we have not heard about Maryja Kalesnikava or Mikalai Statkevich, Ihar Losik or Siarhei Tsikhanousky, and Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski is not given medicines? And the mother of two sons, Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk, continues to be tortured in prison. The regime is trying to create the illusion that it is freeing “criminals.” But they didn’t commit any crimes – they just had the courage to have their own beliefs. And as long as at least one person remains behind bars, we will continue to do everything possible to ensure that everyone is released and returns home.”

On September 17, Deputies of the House of Representatives adopted amendments to the Criminal Code in the first reading. The changes provide for both a certain liberalization of legislation (for example, in the drug sphere) and “tightening the screws” (in the political sphere). In particular, expanding the list of articles on which those who have left the country can be judged in absentia is provided for in the amendments.

On September 18, the Pervomaisky District Court of Minsk began considering another case of political prisoner Zmitser Dashkevich, the former chair of the Young Front movement. He is again accused of participating in actions grossly violating public order and malicious disobedience to the administration of the colony. Dashkevich was sentenced to a year and a half of imprisonment in 2022 on charges of participating in actions grossly violating public order. He was supposed to be released in July 2023, but a new criminal case was opened against him under the charges of disobedience to the demands of the colony administration, and in October 2023, he was sentenced to another year in prison.

«Belsat” media informs that some Belarussians who returned to Belarus were not able to travel abroad again due to being placed on the list of those who cannot leave. Information about the existence of such a practice was confirmed by the BYSOL Solidarity Fund. They said that for more than a year, they have been registering at least ten such cases every month.

The chairman of the Central Election Commission, Ihar Karpenka, allowed the possibility of the introduction of “foreign agents” legislation after the presidential “elections”. “How can fair elections be held if the organization that participates in the elections is funded from abroad and fulfills orders of those who pay this organization? We can ask: are [measures to combat this] we have introduced enough? I don’t know, because they need to be tested in practice. And practice will show where we need to improve something,” he said.

As of September 1, 2024, access to 5,000 “extremist” Internet resources is limited in Belarus, Information Minister Marat Markau said at the plenary session of the international Scientific and practical conference “International Standards in the electoral process: experience and prospects for Development”. “These figures do not indicate how evil our Ministry of Information is, but demonstrate the enormous funds spent by opponents on information undermining of Belarus,” he noted.

Film director and activist Andrei Gnet handed over a petition for his release to the President of Serbia. 783 artists signed the petition. Among the signatories are the President of the European Film Academy Juliette Binoche, film director Wim Wenders, and Nobel laureate in literature Sviatlana Alexievich. Earlier, the Serbian Court of Appeal overturned the decision to extradite Andrei Gnet to Belarus, but the case has been returned to the Belgrade High Court for consideration. Presently, Gnet continues to be under house arrest. In Belarus, he was charged with tax evasion. Gnet and his lawyers insist that he is being persecuted because of his political activities.

On September 16, journalist and activist of the Belarusian diaspora Andrei Mialeshka, along with his minor daughter, were not allowed into Georgia, where they were returning after a trip to Poland. Andrei Mialeshka has lived in Georgia since 2021, and his wife and youngest daughter remain there. He said that he was refused entry to the country based on “other reasons” and was not given any decision on deportation or a mark on his passport. His wife, who came to the airport to pick up her daughter, was not allowed to take her, and the girl was forced to return to Poland with her father. Franak Vyachorka, the senior advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, noted that “this is not the first case of Belarusians in Georgia, although it is not a mass phenomenon.” About 11 thousand Belarusians reside in Georgia.

On September 17, the Free Media Awards for 2024 were presented in Oslo, Norway. One of the laureates was journalist Larysa Shchiryakova, who was sentenced to three and a half years of imprisonment for “discrediting the Republic of Belarus and promoting extremist activities”. The award for her was given to human rights activist Leanid Sudalenka. “Today is the 651^st day of Larysa’s imprisonment in the Belarusian women’s prison in Homel, conditions in which can be compared to inhuman treatment and even torture,” he said at the award ceremony. He recalled that Larysa’s mother died in 2023, but she was not allowed to attend the funeral. “Our thoughts today are with 33 more Belarusian journalists who, like Larysa, were thrown behind bars just for telling people the truth about the political repression that began in Belarus after the 2020 presidential elections,” Leanid Sudalenka stressed.

On September 18, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski presented the Lech Wałęsa Solidarity Award to the Deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet, and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management Pavel Latushka. “This ceremony will be remembered as a tribute not only to the laureate himself but also to the democratic aspirations of the entire Belarusian people,” the press service of the Polish Foreign Ministry quoted Radosław Sikorski as saying.

On September 19, a presentation of the International Humanitarian Fund for Assistance to Belarusian Political Prisoners took place in Vilnius. Its beginning was laid when Norway was the first country to contribute 850 thousand euros to the Fund in April 2024. As of September, two more countries had confirmed contributions of 1.4 million euros. Negotiations will also be held with several other states. “People who have fallen in the millstones of repression need help. Here and now, not in the future. It is necessary for those who have recently left the dungeons, and for the families of those who remain in captivity. And I hope that, first, assistance will be provided to those inside the country,” commented Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

On September 19, the European Parliament adopted a resolution “On the severe situation of political prisoners in Belarus” (2024/2804(RSP)). In the resolution, the European Parliament demanded that the Belarusian authorities immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners and arbitrarily detained persons; expressed utmost concern about the situation of political prisoners, many of whom have been held incommunicado for months or years, face severe health problems, and are subjected to isolation, ill treatment and torture; regretted that Belarusian political prisoners could not benefit from the recent efforts to free political prisoners and Western citizens in Russia and Belarus; called for intensified efforts to free them; urged the Belarusian authorities to respect the human rights of detainees, supply information about their situation, provide necessary medical treatment and allow access for lawyers, family members and the International Committee of the Red Cross; reiterated its call for the EU and its Member States to support the political prisoners and their families by requesting, at every opportunity, their immediate release, summoning the regime’s ambassadors to request proof of their condition and location, simplifying the procedures for obtaining visas and provisional identification documents for those fleeing Belarus, and providing rehabilitation, practical and financial support; called for the EU and its Member States to broaden and strengthen sanctions against the individuals and entities responsible for the repression in Belarus; expressed concern about persecution in exile, e.g. the abuse of Interpol arrest warrants to achieve extradition of political opponents from non-EU countries; called on Serbia to refrain from extraditing Belarusian journalist Andrei Gnet and for the EU institutions and Member States to monitor his case; expressed concern about the 300,000 Belarusians who have been forced to leave Belarus since 2020 and face political persecution abroad by the Lukashenka regime; and called for the EU and its Member States to work towards holding the Lukashenka regime accountable for its crimes and to apply the principle of universal jurisdiction. In the course of the debate on this topic, which took place the night before, one of the authors of the resolution, the Dutch MEP Thijs Reuten, called for sanctions against Belarus similar to the EU restrictive measures against Russia and to continue to isolate the “extremely ruthless repressive dictatorial regime of Lukashenka.” Another author of the document, German MEP Sergei Lagodinsky, asked Belarusians for forgiveness. “I know how painful it was to see that during the recent prisoner exchange in which the Belarusian dictator participated, not a single Belarusian democrat was released,” he stated. “This was a big mistake, our mistake, and this mistake must be corrected by redoubling efforts to free Belarusian prisoners in the future.”

On September 19, the Special Representative of the European Union for Human Rights  Olof Skug stated the importance of demonstrating support for the democratic forces of Belarus at this difficult time. The situation in Belarus remains a priority, due to large-scale human rights violations in Belarus. In his opinion, Lukashenka is “trying to mislead the public by allegedly “pardoning” several political prisoners, while increasing repression.”