Belarus Review by iSANS — September 16, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 34)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).

The overall assessment of the situation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border remains without significant change. As of September 15, the grouping of Belarusian Armed Forces in Homiel region remains at an estimated 1,600 personnel. This is the confirmed minimum number of troops. In the reporting period, there have been cases of withdrawal of the Belarusian Armed Forces units from the border area to the points of permanent deployment. Thus, on September 11, four Su-25 attack aircraft of the 116^th attack aviation base of the Belarusian Air Force (military unit 19764) flew from the airfield in Babruisk to the airfield of permanent deployment in Lida. The planes were stationed in Babruisk for exactly one month, since August 10. The very fact of the withdrawal of aviation to the point of permanent deployment once again confirms that there is no military threat from Belarus to Ukraine. The transfer of troops to the Homiel Region is nothing more than an informational action of the Lukashenka regime.

On September 9, in an interview with the magazine National Defense, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Aliaksandr Valfovich said that in 2025, Belarus would host the next exercise of the so-called “regional grouping of troops” of Belarus and Russia. This exercise was first announced in February 2024. Valfovich also said in an interview that the final draft of the Treaty on security guarantees between Belarus and Russia would be presented “shortly”.

On September 9, the Department of International Military Cooperation held a meeting with Istvan Bognar, military and air attaché at the Hungarian Embassy in Belarus, on the completion of his accreditation with the Ministry of Defense. During the meeting, the sides exchanged views on the state of the military and political situation in the European region and bilateral military relations between the countries.

On September 10-11, Stolin-2024 training sessions were held in Stolin (Brest region) under the leadership of Interior Minister Ivan Kubrakou. The topic of the training was the suppression of illegal armed groups. During the practical part, the tactics of combat in urban conditions were practiced, as well as the release of hostages. During the exercises, the Ukrainian armored vehicle Kozak-5 was used. The car was probably seized by mercenaries of PMC “Wagner” and presented to the Interior Ministry for the exercises. This is not the first time Ukrainian trophy equipment has been used in combat training exercises.

On September 11, it became known that the Western Operational Command was forming a new unit – an anti-aircraft missile regiment (military unit 96871). The regiment will be stationed in Hrodna. Infrastructure is being prepared for this purpose. The creation of the unit may be associated with the formation of the Southern Operational Command.

On September 12, it became known that the 2566^th Radio Electronic Weapons Repair Plant had completed the modernization of a batch of BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers to the level of BM-21B BelGrad-2. The equipment has passed acceptance tests and is ready to be transferred to the troops. It has not yet been reported which unit of the Armed Forces of Belarus will be the first to receive the modernized Grads. It is known that BM-21 Grads are in service with at least seven brigades of the Ground Forces and Special Operations Forces.

Russian unmanned aerial vehicles continued to fly into Belarus. Thus, on September 13, a Russian reconnaissance drone of “Orlan” type flew into Belarus. The Belarusian Air Force did not intercept it. On September 14, a Russian drone of the Shahed-136/131 type flew into the airspace of Belarus from Ukraine. A fighter of the Belarusian Air Force was used to intercept it.

On September 12, command and staff exercises with the 120^d Mechanized Brigade were held at the 227^th Combined Arms Training Range in Barysau under the direction of the commander of the Northwest Operational Command. As part of the exercise, an episode of defensive combat was played out. The servicemen practiced ambush operations, destruction of the conditional enemy wedged in the defense of troops, and counterattack. The exercises were observed by delegations from Zimbabwe, Iran, and Equatorial Guinea.

On September 13-14, the Russian cargo airline of the AbakanAir company made a flight from Belarus to one of the countries of deployment of PMC “Wagner” mercenaries in Africa – the Central African Republic. The flight is highly likely to be associated with the activities of PMC “Wagner. A total of five flights of AbakanAir and Rada Airlines from Belarus to Mali have been recorded since October 2023.

On September 9, the Polish Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski announced that Poland disclosed a group of digital saboteurs linked to Belarusian and Russian special services. According to the minister, these services had been active in Poland, trying to gain unauthorized access to information and then use it to blackmail individuals and institutions, which constituted a “de facto cyber war”. In particular, the hackers tried to attack the Polish Anti-Doping Agency, which could have been used as an entry point to other Polish institutions in local government or state companies related to national security.

On September 10, it became known that the Belarusian manufacturer of mining dump trucks BELAZ wanted to cooperate with the Taliban. An announcement from the Ministry of Mining and Petroleum of Afghanistan stated that the negotiations had already taken place.  Reportedly, during a meeting with the Head of the Afghan Ministry Hedayatullah Badri, the Belarusian delegation agreed to “go the path of legal cooperation and creation of necessary conditions”.

On September 10, the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) passed amendments to the Road Traffic Law in its second reading. The law provides for the confiscation of vehicles registered in Belarus. This amendment to the legislation was introduced following the EU sanctions against Belarus. It states that all cars with Belarusian license plates must be removed or re-registered in Latvia. Failure to do so will lead to their confiscation. Moreover, the State Administration Commission will evaluate a proposal to ban the cooperation of local governments with cities in Russia and Belarus. This evaluation comes after the Latvian government received a letter from the Ambassador of Ukraine, which drew the attention of Latvia to the fact that cooperation agreements between Latvian municipalities and cities of Russia and Belarus are still in force.

On September 10, two EU countries neighboring Belarus took steps to extend the reinforcement measures of their borders with Belarus. Poland has extended its exclusion zone on its frontier with Belarus for a further period of three months. According to the information of the Polish Ministry of Interior, the measure has already proven its effect, resulting in a 64% drop (from June 13) in the number of illegal border crossing attempts by migrants from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Latvia has extended the reinforced border surveillance regime until December 31, 2024, by a decision of the Cabinet of Ministers. The measure will take effect in several municipalities bordering Belarus as a means to ensure the inviolability of the state border and prevention of threats to the state as well as because a significant number of illegal border crossing cases or attempts to cross the state border are still being detected. Reportedly, a total of 4,210 persons were deterred from the illegal state border crossing between January 1 and September 10, 2024, at the Belarus-Latvia border.

On September 13, the US State Department imposed sanctions on suppliers to Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile program, including China-based firms. Among the blacklisted companies, there was a Belarus-based Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, which has worked to supply special vehicle chassis to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program.

Last week, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya conducted a series of meetings with foreign policy and decision-makers. On September 12, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces met with the new Special Envoy of Latvia to the Belarusian democratic forces Gunta Pastore. The main topic of discussion between the two representatives was the situation in Latvia with Belarus-registered vehicles belonging to Belarusians who cannot return to their home country due to the threat of repression. Besides, both meeting parties talked about prospects of increasing pressure on the Lukashenka regime, the situation with the political prisoners in Belarus, support to foundations aiding the repressed, support to civil society organizations, independent media, and cultural organizations. On the same day, Tsikhanouskaya met with the Chancellor of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jonatan Vseviov. The parties discussed topics such as the need to differentiate between the Lukashenka regime and the Belarusian people, the current situation with the Belarusian political prisoners and the incommunicado detention of some of them imposed by the Lukashenka regime, support to the international humanitarian foundation for the support of Belarusian political prisoners, support for Belarusians in Estonia, pressure against the Lukashenka regime. In the course of the meeting, Jonatan Vseviov assured his Belarusian interlocutor that Estonia would put pressure on the Lukashenka regime by all available means. On the following day, September 13, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with Deputy US State Secretary Kurt Campbell during his visit to Vilnius. Deputy State Secretary assured Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya that the US will continue to support Belarusian people and democratic forces. Both parties also discussed topics such as military-policy situation inside Belarus, including Russia’s use of Belarusian airspace for military operations against Ukraine and munition supplies from Belarus to Russia; international attempts to free Belarusian political prisoners and possible future steps in this direction; non-recognition of the 2025 presidential elections in Belarus; continuation of the strategic cooperation between the USA and Belarusian democratic forces; nominating US Special Envoy for cooperation with the Belarusian democratic forces, and other pressing issues.

The authorities seize the apartments of opposition activists who have left the country – this is a new instrument of transnational repression. Emigrants cannot come home for security reasons, and any property-related agreements from 2023 onwards can only be carried out inside the country, according to Belarusian law. As a result, apartments are arrested and sold, tenants are evicted from them.  Authorities can even cancel property sale agreements. This practice is not new – the courts act in the same way, for example, in corruption cases, when there is a reason to believe that the person involved in the criminal case was trying to save the property from subsequent confiscation by selling it. Now the authorities have decided to extend this practice to those involved in “extremist” cases, most of which are of a political nature. Chair of the Investigative Committee Dzmitri Gara called for more active use of special proceedings (in absentia trials) with subsequent confiscation of property. According to the Investigative Committee, such proceedings have already been initiated against more than a hundred individuals. “Recently, the Investigative Committee has intensified this work,” Gara stressed. – “This year, the number of such cases will definitely increase. In most of them, the property of the accused (apartments, houses, land plots, cars) is seized.”

At a government meeting on September 10, Aliaksandr Lukashenka explained the pardon of political prisoners. Those pardoned, he said, have health problems or do not pose a danger. He also stressed that he decided to pardon them of his own free will, and not under pressure. “They [human rights community] are concerned to prove to themselves and abroad that they have made a huge contribution and “forced the dictator» to make these decisions. No one can force me. It’s out of the question. I often tell journalists and others: you know me well, I have never made decisions on orders or under pressure,” Lukashenka commented. At the same time, he claims there are no political prisoners in the country, as there are allegedly no “political” articles in the Criminal Code. Human rights activists know the names of 14 political prisoners released under the most recent decree, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. “We still maintain information silence for the sake of the prisoners’ safety, so we are not publishing the names of those released yet”, they underlined.

Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk, who was detained on January 3, 2021, and has since been deprived of liberty, was transferred from the Rechitsa temporary detention center to the Homel pre-trial detention center due to the end of the investigation in yet another case of “malicious disobedience to the requirements of the correctional institution administration”. When her relatives called the Homel pre-trial detention center to find out about her health and the possibility of transferring the parcel, they were told that Palina had been placed in solitary confinement for 10 days.

On September 9, the Hrodna Regional Court began considering the case of political prisoner Natallia Antonava. She is accused of slandering Lukashenka and inciting discord. In the spring of 2023, Natallia was sentenced to three years of “home chemistry” for participating in protests. She was detained again this winter and placed in a pre-trial detention center.

On September 11, another mass trial for participation in the 2020 protests began in the court of the Moskovsky district of Brest. Seven people are involved in the case: Siarhey Filimonau, Ihar Varanovich, Aliaksandr Shtyk, Uladislau Piskunovich, Vital Hira, Yauhen Melnichuk, Dzmitry Postnikau. They were charged with participating in mass riots and face up to eight years of imprisonment. Some of the defendants had previously been shown on pro-government Telegram channels. On March 25, a video of Ihar Varanovich’s detention appeared: at least five security forces officers with weapons, wearing bulletproof vests and helmets came to his apartment and knocked Varanovich in his underwear to the floor. The video with Yauhen Melnichuk was published on April 4. He was forced to say that during the action he “waved his hand” to the crowd, said “surround the riot police” and threw stones.

On September 12, 11 persons were sentenced in Brest for participation in protests. The Brest district court sentenced Illya Sabko, Aliaksandr Zaitsau, Mikalai Kaplyuk, Kiryll Yeutyshyk, Mikalai Misyuk, Artur Zaremba, Dzmitri Lysyuk, Aleh Bandaruk, Mikhail Veramchuk, Dzmitry Salaveyka and Dzianis Yakavenka to terms ranging from two years of “home chemistry” (restriction of freedom with referral to an open-type correctional institution) to one and a half years of imprisonment. All were accused of a group violation of public order. The charges against all of them were based on the allegations that on August 10, 2020, in Brest they “shouted slogans, showed white-red-white canvases, and went out onto the roadway.” Thus, it is known about 48 people convicted now for participation in the Brest protests on August 10, 2020.

The Minsk City Court sentenced historian Ihar Melnikau to four years of imprisonment. According to the prosecutor’s office, on January 26, 2022, in Poland, Melnikau gave an interview to Euroradio “to carry out extremist activities, including popularization of extremist media resources, involvement of more citizens in extremist activities, dissemination of extremist materials,” and thereby “assisted the extremist activities” of this media. At the trial, Melnikau admitted guilt. The verdict has not yet entered into force, it can be appealed. Earlier, many Melnikau’s books, including about the Polish army in the territory of Babruisk and the Soviet-Polish border, were recognized as “extremist”.

Law enforcement bodies continue the practice of bringing charges of “malicious disobedience to the prison administration” against political prisoners to prevent them from being released from prison after the end of their punishment term. A new criminal case has been opened against political prisoner Mikola Dziadok, an activist of the anarchist movement, on charges of “malicious disobedience to the prison administration”. He was supposed to be released from prison on April 25, 2025. Dziadok has health problems: stomach aches and a headache. On September 23, political prisoner Andrei Budai will also be tried in Bobruisk on charges of “malicious disobedience to the colony administration”. Political prisoner Raman Marusau will be tried again on the same charges. The trial will begin on September 27 in the Leninsky district court of Mahileu.

More than 55 persons have been detained after returning to Belarus since the beginning of the year. Half of the detainees were subjected to administrative prosecution. Criminal cases were initiated against 17 of the detainees. The reason for the detention may be photos from protests or with a white-red-white flag, donations, comments on social networks, “extremist” reposts and subscriptions, photos from solidarity actions abroad that security forces find on their phones. It is also known that those who have stamps on their passports about visiting Ukraine are interrogated at the border. Checks are carried out not only at checkpoints. Security forces drop people off buses, meet them at train stations or come to their homes.

On September 8, on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the detention of one of the most famous political prisoners Maryja Kalesnikava, who was a member of the team of the former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka and, after his arrest, member of the team of presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, German Federal Government Commissioner for Culture and the Media Claudia Roth said: “Maryja is one of the brave women fighting for a democratic Belarus. Four years ago, she was brutally arrested by the Lukashenka regime and arbitrarily sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment.” There has been no contact with Maryja since February 2023. Roth called Kalesnikava’s conditions of detention “deeply inhumane” and drew attention to the source of information about her condition, which her sister Tatsiana Khomich recently made public: “Not from herself or her lawyers, but from women who were released from the Homel colony”. Tatsiana Khomich underlined that Maryja has been denied communication with her family, doctors, and lawyers for a year and a half. “These brutal repressive methods demonstrate Lukashenka’s cowardice and hatred, but they definitely will not silence the Belarusian democratic movement and its allies,” Roth stressed. “Masha, we will not forget you,» Roth addressed her. — “Our thoughts are with you and your family. We stand with you and with the people in Belarus until a free and democratic Belarus becomes possible.”

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radosław Sikorski considers the release of political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut one of the most important tasks. He stated this while talking to journalists before a meeting of heads of diplomatic missions. He refused to provide details about the current situation around Poczobut for the “success of this case.” At the same time, he stressed the importance of his release and suggested addressing complaints about his imprisonment to Aliaksandr Lukashenka. Lukashenka, at a meeting with representatives of nationalities living in Belarus, said that political prisoner journalist Andrzej Poczobut himself does not want to leave for Poland. He also stated that the Polish authorities do not plan to take Poczobut away: “They [Poland] do not want to take him away. It is just a political bargaining chip.”

Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was recently released from a Russian prison as a result of a prisoner exchange, raised, among other things, the issue of Belarusian political prisoners at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. “We talked about the war, about support for Ukraine, about the importance of Europe’s dialogue with Russian society — and about political prisoners who need to be pulled out of prisons in Russia and Belarus,” he said. Earlier, Vladimir Kara-Murza covered this subject during his meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The Serbian Court of Appeal has overturned the decision on the extradition of Andrei Gnet, the Belarusian film director and activist, who was detained in Serbia in October 2023 at the request of the Belarusian authorities. However, he will not be released. Now the case will return for the third time to the Belgrade High Court for a new hearing. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office noted that the cancellation of the extradition decision is not the end of this case: “Democratic forces, human rights defenders, and international partners will continue to fight for Andrei’s freedom. We will closely monitor the progress of the case and help him bring his position to court. We hope that Andrei will be fully released soon.”

Jagiellonian University in Krakow will take an individual approach to solving problems that Belarusian applicants have with educational documents. As the press service of the university explained, “The academic year begins on October 1, 2024, which means that the university is obliged to check whether the persons accepted for training can start studying in accordance with the law. This applies to all students that start their studies, including citizens of other countries.” However, in some cases, “individual decisions will be made taking into account the situation of each person admitted to study.” Some Polish universities have agreed to wait for the documents until the end of October or even until the end of the semester.