Belarus Review by iSANS — September 09, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 32)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).

On September 1, an echelon with equipment of the 19^th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Gudagai station (Astravets district, Hrodna region). The station is located 7 kilometers from the Lithuanian border. A tactical group consisting of two motorized rifles and one tank company, as well as a mortar battery (38 units of equipment, about 250 people) was transferred to the Lithuanian border area. The redeployment is related to the inspection of the combat and mobilization readiness of the 19^th Brigade, which began back in August. The units of the Armed Forces of Belarus do not pose a military threat to Lithuania.

In September, Kamenets district (Brest region) and Hrodna district (Hrodna region) are holding exercises with territorial defense. The peculiarity of the events is that the listed districts border Poland and Lithuania, respectively. It is noteworthy that in 2022 and 2023, similar exercises were not held in areas that border NATO countries. Nothing is surprising in the new practice since the Lukashenka regime constantly grumbles about the militarization of Western countries and the alleged military threats to Belarus.

The general assessment of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border has not changed. As of September 9, the number of the Belarusian Armed Forces grouping in the Homel region is 1,600 men. This is the minimum confirmed number of troops. We continue to record the disinformation campaign carried out by the resources connected with the Belarusian military. Its goal is to exaggerate the number of troops in the south of Belarus, as well as the efforts of the Armed Forces of Belarus in response to “another provocation” from Ukraine. Now, the number of forces deployed to the border does not pose a military threat to Ukraine.

During the Russian missile attacks on Ukraine over the last week, drones of the Shahed 136/131 type continued to fly into Belarus. On September 3, one drone flew into Belarus. Later it returned to Ukraine. The forces of the Belarusian Air Force were not used to intercept the drone. On September 4, four drones flew into the airspace of Belarus. Later one of them flew to Ukraine; two flew near the Belarus-Ukraine border (probably also returned to Ukraine); and one drone was spotted near Zhlobin (Homel region; there is no information about its fate). A fighter of the Belarusian Air Force was used to intercept the drones. On September 5, eight drones flew into Belarus. According to available information, a unit of anti-aircraft troops of the Russian Armed Forces (Zyabrovka airfield, Homel district) shot down one drone. Another one was shot down by a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force. The remaining six drones returned to Ukraine. This is probably the first case of an operation in the airspace of Belarus by a unit of anti-aircraft troops of the Russian Armed Forces against a Russian drone. The Belarusian military admitted the fact of shooting down the drones. Later, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich indirectly acknowledged the participation of the Russian military in shooting down their own drones. For more details on the propagandists’ reaction to the incident, see the Propaganda section. At least seven Shahed 136/131 drones flew into the airspace of Belarus on the night of September 6. It is known that one of them flew into Hrodna region for the first time. To intercept the drones, fighters of the Belarusian Air Force made four sorties, while two more – by helicopters. Later, one of the drones may have flown and crashed on Latvian territory. Also (probably for the first time), a Russian reconnaissance drone of Supercam type flew into the territory of Belarus. There is no information about the fate of the other drones. There is a tendency to increase the number of Russian drones flying into the territory of Belarus. While 21 drones of the Shahed 136/131 type flew in July-August, 20 Shahed 136/131 drones flew on September 1-7.

On September 4, during another Russian strike on Ukraine, a hypersonic Kinzhal missile flew over the Homel Region of Belarus. The missile likely struck Lviv after that.

On September 4, the Belarusian Defense Ministry published a tender for the purchase of nine Autel drones: 1) four EVO MAX 4T; 2) four EVO MAX 4N Standard Bundle; 3) one Dragonfish Standard. They plan to spend 631,000 BYN / $ 199,324 on the purchase. Every year, the number of drones purchased for the needs of the Armed Forces of Belarus increases, and their model range expands.

On September 4, commander of the Interior Troops of Belarus Mikalai Karpenkou announced changes in the organizational and staff structure of the troops. According to the official, “shortly” it is planned to create separate units of snipers and drone operators in the internal troops.

On September 4, it became known that a new unit – the 79^th separate reactive artillery division – was formed within the 336^th reactive artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Belarus (military unit 12180). The division is armed with multiple launch rocket systems B-300 Polonez-M. Recall that in November 2023, a divisional set of reactive systems “Polonez-M” was transferred to the 336^th Brigade . This was the reason for the formation of the new unit.

On September 6, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin stated about deliveries of military equipment during the solemn meeting dedicated to the Day of Tankmen. According to the official, “Only during the last few months, the Belarusian army has received 10 new BTR-82A BTRs and 10 Tiger special vehicles.” The official did not specify which units received the new equipment. It is known that in 2021-2023, the Armed Forces of Belarus received 3 battalion sets of BTR-82A. The armored personnel carriers were delivered to the mechanized and airborne assault units of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

Khrenin also talked about the modernization of tanks: “More than 100 armored weapons and equipment, including 30 T-72 tanks to the level of T-72BM2, are being overhauled and modernized at the facilities of the 140^th repair plant. According to the head of the armored tank department of the Belarusian Defense Ministry, a battalion set of tanks is being upgraded. Earlier it was reported that the first modernized T-72BM2 tanks would be delivered to the troops by the end of 2023. But the tanks were not delivered and the deadline was corrected to 2024.

On September 6, the Department of International Military Cooperation held an accreditation meeting with Ali Tamer Alharti, Military Attaché at the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Russia and Belarus (part-time). During the event, the parties exchanged views on the international agenda and discussed the current state of military cooperation between the defense departments of the countries.

On September 8, State TV broadcasted an interview with the State Secretary of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich. The official touched upon the topic of the PMC Wagner: “We consider and make good use of the experience of the PMC Wagner units, which are deployed in Belarus. Their instructors are in our units and share the practical skills they acquired in combat [during the war in Ukraine], during combat operations in other places”. There are indeed up to 100 former mercenaries of PMC Wagner in Belarus, who act as instructors. The closest cooperation of the former mercenaries is with the internal troops.

On September 2, the Polish Ministry of Interior announced that it had already agreed on a project, according to which the buffer zone at the Belarusian-Polish border will be prolonged for another three months, starting from September 11. According to the Deputy Minister of the Interior and Administration Czeslaw Mroczek, the buffer zone that has been in place for three months resulted in a decrease in illegal migration attempts from Belarus to Poland, its socio-economic negative impact is minimal, and it increased the security level at the country’s borders.

On September 2, the Lithuanian Border Guard Service issued a press statement announcing that the number of Lithuanian citizens traveling to Belarus decreased five times compared to the number at the same time two years ago. The number of Lithuanian travelers in August 2024 was 10 thousand, whereas a year ago it was 33 thousand and 50 thousand two years ago. According to the information from the institution, the turning point which resulted in a significant decrease in travelers was in March this year when Lithuania closed two more international border checkpoints at the Belarusian-Lithuanian border (Lavoriškės and Raigardas). At the moment, four out of six border checkpoints on the country‘s frontier with Belarus are closed.

On September 3, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has initiated the termination of a number of its international agreements with Russia, Belarus, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). „The Ukrainian government has approved a Foreign Ministry directive to submit to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine a bill on the termination of international agreements signed by the Ukrainian government with those of Russia and Belarus, and in the CIS framework,” stated the press release of the Ministry. The relevant bill will be considered then by the parliament, the statement said. It stipulates the termination of 14 agreements, including five with Russia, four with Belarus, and five signed as a CIS member, covering the military, energy, financial, economic, transport, social, and medical fields.

According to media reports, several thousands of cars bought in the US by Belarusians are left unclaimed at the port of Klaipėda. The head of the Association of Lithuanian Stevedoring Companies Vaidotas Šileika confirmed that this might be the case. Those cars that the owners cannot claim are stored in the port or in other parking lots in Klaipėda. According to him, Belarusians are unable to claim the cars because of the sanctions, as their owners cannot guarantee that the vehicles will not be transported to Russia.

On September 5, it was announced that the Republic of Korea would tighten export controls against Russia and Belarus by expanding its list of items subject to export restrictions, including machine tool parts and sensors, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to the revision to the regulations on trading strategic items, Korea added 243 more items that can potentially be used for military purposes to the list of items that are banned from shipping to Russia and Belarus, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy. The newly added items include metal-cutting machines, machine tool components, parts for optical instruments, and sensors.

On September 5, the Commission on the Environment and Regional Policy of the Latvian Saema introduced changes to the law banning Belarusian-registered cars from entering Latvia. The new amendments state that all cars with Belarusian license plates must be re-registered to Latvian ones or leave the country not later than October 31, 2024. If their owners fail to comply with the regulation, the car might be confiscated. After this date, cars with Belarusian registration will only be allowed to enter Latvia once, if they are in transit through the country. In such a case, the permission of a Latvian traffic regulation agency will be necessary. Diplomatic vehicles from Belarus and cars entering on humanitarian grounds will be allowed into Latvia.

Following several acts of vandalism against Belarusian organizations in Vilnius, such as shattered windows at the Belarusian Center of Culture, shooting at the windows of the Belarusian Orthodox Parish and offensive graffiti near the Dapamoga shelter (shelter for Belarusians who fled the country due to fear of persecution), the leader of the democratic forces of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued a statement condemning the acts of vandalism. The Head of the United Transitional Cabinet said that the acts were clearly meant to sow discord between Lithuanians and Belarusians. She expressed her confidence that the Lukashenka regime is behind the vandalism against Belarusian organizations and institutions in Vilnius and urged the Lithuanian authorities to thoroughly investigate these attacks and hold the perpetrators accountable.

Also, on September 5, following the reports on Russian Shahed drones violating the airspace of Belarus and having been downed by the Belarusian military, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya again raised security concerns. “Russian combat drones and Belarusian military planes are now flying over our families. Two Russian Shahed kamikaze drones were shot down over Belarus in the early hours of September 5. Today, it was fragments of downed drones falling on Belarusians. So, what will we witness tomorrow? It is clear, that the Lukashenka regime cannot ensure peace and safety in our country”, the statement said. The leader of the Belarusian democratic forces expressed her strong protest against Russia using Belarusian land and airspace for its attacks as this violates both international law and Belarus’ national interests. According to Tsikhanouskaya, the regime has dragged Belarusians into disgraceful aggression and now shows its complete inability to protect the country from the consequences. She demanded that Russia stops violating the borders and called on the military leadership of Belarus to end all cooperation with Russian forces.

On September 4, Aliaksandr Lukashenka pardoned 30 more persons convicted of “protest crimes.” Among those pardoned were seven women and 23 men. Most of them are parents of underage children. “All these persons have complied with the mandatory conditions of pardon — they filed a petition for clemency, admitted guilt, sincerely repented and promised to lead a law-abiding lifestyle,” Lukashenka’s press service said in a statement. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the pardon, stressing that all of these people were innocent. “The repression continues to intensify, and more than 1,400 persons remain in detention for political reasons. We need constant international pressure to ensure freedom for all of them,” she wrote on the social network X.

Human rights activists know the names of seven released political prisoners, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. “We continue to maintain information silence for the sake of their safety, so, we do not publish the names of those released yet,” “Viasna” stressed. At the moment, the names of three released political prisoners have been announced. These are EPAM employee Dyjana Zavadskaya, entrepreneur, dancer and wife of the vocalist of the band “Ban Zhvirba” Victoryja Gaurylina, and activist of the movement “Mothers 328” Maryna Kisialyevich.

Prosecutor General Andrei Shved announced the next meeting of the pardon commission, where more applications from those convicted on political charges will be considered. The meeting will take place this week. “By carefully studying each candidate, we will form our opinion on whether it is possible to ask the head of state to pardon him/her,” he said in a comment to state television. It is alleged that “all of them have already filed a petition for clemency, admitted guilt, sincerely repented, and promised to lead a law-abiding lifestyle.”

In August, human rights activists learned about the detention for political reasons and recognized as political prisoners 52 persons. Of those, 16 persons were detained and imprisoned for exercising freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of expression; 24 persons were detained and imprisoned on charges of defamation, incitement to hostility and discord, high treason, and other charges used for selective and discriminatory protection of government representatives in closed court sessions; 12 persons were persecuted through excessively broad and vague legislation on extremism.

As “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported on September 4, political prisoner Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk’s health condition deteriorated sharply. She was supposed to be released on May 21, but a new criminal case was opened against her on charges of malicious disobedience to the requirements of the correctional institution administration. In July, Palina’s relatives learned that she had been diagnosed with “chronic pancreatitis of moderate severity” – a health-threatening disease, the treatment of which is complicated in prison. Palina’s husband, Andrei Sharenda, wrote that she suffers from severe pain on the side of her abdomen, but she does not receive medical care, they only give her painkillers. It also became known that Palina was transferred from the Homel pre-trial detention center N 3 to the temporary detention facility of the city of Rechitsa for “investigative actions”. This means that in the next few weeks, or even months before the trial, Palina will be held there. The conditions in Rechitsky temporary detention facility are even worse than the punishment cell in the colony. Prisoners are not given mattresses, there is no toilet in the cells, and there are a lot of bedbugs. You have to sleep on the floor. Last year, Palina was held there for several weeks. Protesting against the terrible conditions of detention, Palina then went on a hunger strike.

From September 2 to 6, at least 33 people will be tried across Belarus on charges of “active participation in actions grossly violating public order”. All were accused of participating in post-election protests in 2020. In parallel, new detentions continue, “Viasna” Human Rights Center writes. Minsk and Brest region remain the leaders in the persecution. In total, at least 2,579 persons have been convicted of these charges since 2020.

Siarhei Ramanau, a political prisoner sentenced to 20 years of imprisonment, was once again charged with “disobeying the colony administration.” His trial will take place in September. At the moment, he is in a cell-type room, where he was transferred in July for five months. There have been no letters from him for more than a month. Siarhei Ramanau was detained while crossing the border of Belarus on the night from October 28 to October 29, 2020. He was charged with arson of official cars, the building of the traffic police, and the building of the State Committee of Expertise in the Homel region. In February 2021, the KGB added him to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities” and to the list of those involved in extremist activities. On December 22, 2021, he was sentenced to 20 years in a high-security colony. On March 23, 2023, Siarhei was tried in Vaukavysk on charges of malicious disobedience to the requirements of the correctional institution administration. He was sentenced to 11 months of imprisonment. The total term for Romanov thus was 20 years and 11 months of imprisonment.

Poland continues to put pressure on the Lukashenka regime to release Andrzej Poczobut and other political prisoners in Belarus. This was stated by Marshal of the Sejm of Poland Szymon Hołownia at the GLOBSEC security conference, which was held in Prague on August 30 – September 1. “At the diplomatic level, we are doing everything possible to send a signal to Lukashenka that he must release political prisoners,” he said, — “That if he wants to open border crossings if he wants to have transit corridors, he needs to cooperate with us on this issue. We are trying to show that if he does not cooperate, the consequences for him, for his regime and for his country will be really difficult.”

The District Court in Warsaw arrested three Belarusian citizens in absentia in the case of the Ryanair Athens — Vilnius flight, which was landed in Belarus in 2021 under the pretext of having an explosive device on board. Then journalist Raman Pratasevich and his girlfriend Sofya Sapega were detained. The decision on the arrest in absentia was made on September 4. It concerned the former director of Belaeronavigation, Leanid Churo, the head of the control shift, Yaugeni Tsiganau, as well as an unnamed high-ranking KGB officer. According to the media, it is the head of the KGB Andrey A. M. The National Prosecutor’s Office charged them with an act of terror: taking control of a Ryanair plane by deception and illegally imprisoning passengers and crew members. The investigation was conducted for three years by the National Prosecutor’s Office and the Internal Security Agency. A 42-year-old dispatcher, who fled to Poland with valuable evidence, including recordings from the flight control centre made on his phone, helped to establish the circumstances of the plane landing. He showed that an employee of the KGB of Belarus was in the control room at Minsk airport and made the decision to land the plane in Minsk. This KGB officer was in touch with another person, to whom he reported on all the actions. On September 5, the Prosecutor’s Office initiated a search for suspects. In the coming days, it will ask the court to issue European arrest warrants and ask Interpol to launch a search with a red notice.

Speaking at the UN, Belarusian officials said they knew nothing about torture or the deaths of political prisoners who had disabilities. In Belarus, about 6% of the population has a disability. Since 2020, their situation has been deteriorating significantly, human rights activists said, speaking at the UN before the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. Human rights activists separately focused on the problem of persecution of persons with disabilities for their political position. “Among those serving sentences in colonies and prisons, at least 16 persons are with disabilities, 91 persons with serious illnesses, 65 elderly people over 60 years old, many of them also have serious health problems, and 10 persons have psychosocial disabilities,” – human rights activist Natallia Satsunkevich said at the UN, “This data is incomplete. It should be borne in mind that the establishment of disability in places of detention is fraught with great difficulties, therefore many are not recognized as disabled by the authorities.” The Permanent Representative of Belarus to the UN, Larisa Belskaya, when asked to comment on the deaths of political prisoners who had disabilities, said: “We do not know the facts when people died being imprisoned due to disability. The situation of 2020 was interpreted incorrectly. The protests were not peaceful.” To the remark that the Committee against Torture in its report confirmed systematic violations referring to evidence of physical and sexual violence, Belskaya said: “We have good reasons to doubt the credibility of the sources on the basis of which the Committee made its conclusions.”

The Deputy of the German Bundestag Thomas Rachel (opposition faction of the Christian Democrats) called on Belarus authorities to allow political prisoner Maryia Kalesnikava a visit by representatives of the International Red Cross, her family and her lawyer. He published his appeal on the social network X. He was supported by the German International Human Rights Society. “The state of Maryia Kalesnikava’s health is of concern, she should be given immediate access to doctors, family and a lawyer. She weighs only 45 kg,” it noted. The last letter from Maria came on February 15, 2023, for more than 560 days, her sister Tatsiana Khomich has been collecting information about her sister “bit by bit — from women leaving the colony.” Earlier, Deputy Thomas Rachel sent a request to the German government, in which he asked whether a demand had been made to release Kalesnikava as part of negotiations with Russia on an exchange of prisoners, and if so, why the release had not taken place, and if not, what “concrete initiatives” the government was putting forward for her release. State Secretary at the Federal Foreign Office Susanne Baumann replied that “the release of all political prisoners in Belarus is a priority for the federal government.” The German government “constantly advocates for the release of political prisoners,” but “does not speak out about the content of confidential negotiations,” Baumann said.

The EU once again “took note” of the release of another group of political prisoners in Belarus and repeated its demand to release the rest. This was stated in the message of the EU Lead spokesperson for the external affairs, Peter Stano. “The European Union takes note of yesterday’s pardon of 30 political prisoners, but about 1,400 remain in inhuman conditions. We are alarmed by reports about the health status of Maria Kalesnikava and Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk. All political prisoners must be released,” he wrote in X.

A member of the Coordinating Council (the «Belarusians» fraction) Maryna Zialenaya (Kalinina) has been denied international protection in Georgia. “My child and I qualify under the terms of the 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees, but we do not qualify from the point of view of the Georgian State Security Service,” Zialenaya noted. She intends to write an appeal to the Ombudsman of Georgia. In August, it became known that Georgia had refused international protection to Belarusian human rights defender Raman Kislyak. The response he received from the Migration Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that he meets the criteria for the award of refugee status defined by the Geneva Convention “On the Status of a Refugee” and the Law of Georgia “On International Protection”, however, “there were sufficient grounds for assuming” that his stay in Georgia may “contradict the interests of the country.” The same argument was provided in the letter by the authorities to Maryna Zialenaya. Similar cases have been recorded before.