Belarus Review by iSANS — September 03, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 32)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).

The overall assessment of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border has not changed. As of August 29, the number of troops of the Armed Forces of Belarus in the Homel region amounted to approximately 1,150 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops. It is known that units of the Ground Forces, Special Operations Forces, Anti-aircraft Missile Forces, aviation, etc. were deployed to the border. Military officials regularly visit the Ukrainian border area. A disinformation campaign by resources associated with the Belarusian military is noted. Its purpose is to exaggerate the number of troops in the south of Belarus and the efforts made by the Belarusian Armed Forces in response to another “provocation” from Ukraine. Currently, the number of forces deployed to the border does not pose a military threat to Ukraine.

Tactical exercises with the 6th Mechanized Brigade continued in the Hrodna region. On August 26, the Brigade’s units practiced overcoming water obstacles. The issues of conducting special combat operations in hard-to-reach areas were also worked out during the exercises. Reservists, as well as units of the territorial troops, were involved in the exercises.

During the Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, flights of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Shahed 136/131 type into the territory of Belarus continued to be recorded. On August 26, at least three Russian drones flew into the territory of Belarus. Currently, there is no information on what happened further with the drones. Belarusian Air Force crews on duty were not used to intercept them. On August 27, at least six Russian unmanned aerial vehicles flew into the territory of Belarus. It is known that the Belarusian Air Force fighter on duty were flying over the southern regions of Belarus almost all night. On August 29, one Russian drone flew into the territory of Belarus. Fighter jets of the Belarusian Air Force used rocket weapons to destroy it. This is the first case of the destruction of a Russian drone in the airspace of Belarus. On August 31, during another Russian missile attack on the territory of Ukraine, one Shahed 136/131 unmanned aerial vehicle flew into the territory of Belarus. The Belarusian Air Force crews were not used to intercept the drone. There is no further information on what happened with the drone.

From August 26 to September 6, the second stage of a comprehensive audit of the territorial defense authorities of the Homel region is taking place under the leadership of the Head of the Territorial Defense Department — Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. The purpose of the audit is to assess the level of training of the territorial defense of the region, as well as to determine the effectiveness of the work of district executive committees’ officials and military enlistment offices of the region in the use of territorial defense forces.

On August 26, the Ministry of Defense reported that units of the 336^th Rocket Artillery Brigade, armed with Smerch multiple launch rocket systems, went to a training ground in Russia “to work out issues of combat use.” It was also reported that a unit of the 127^th Communications (territorial) Brigade was sent to participate in exercises on the territory of Russia.

On August 26-28, units of the 15^th Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade, the 8^th Radio Engineering Brigade and the 56^th Anti-aircraft Missile Regiment returned to Belarus after completing operational and tactical exercises held at the Ashuluk training ground (Russia).

On August 27, it was reported about personnel appointments in the Armed Forces: 1) Uladzimir Bely was appointed Head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training of the Armed Forces. Before his appointment, he was the Commander of the Western Operational Command. 2) Vadzim Surau was appointed Commander of the Western Operational Command. Before his appointment, he was the Head of the 72^nd Joint Training Center. 3) Aliaksandar Ageychyk was appointed head of the 72^nd Joint Training Center. His position before the appointment is unknown.

On August 29, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin held a meeting with the Chinese Ambassador to Belarus Se Syaoyun on the occasion of the completion of his diplomatic mission. During the meeting, the Defense Minister thanked the Chinese Ambassador for his significant contribution to the development of bilateral relations and noted the existence of good prospects in the field of military cooperation.

Vacancies in the units of electronic intelligence and communications of the Armed Forces, where knowledge of foreign languages is required, have been announced. Specialists with knowledge of the official languages of the NATO countries bordering Belarus – Lithuanian, Latvian, Polish, as well as English, are invited. It can be assumed that the Belarusian military is increasing its intelligence activities concerning the NATO countries bordering Belarus.

On August 23, it became known that the US Treasury Department expanded sanctions against Russia. The decision came just on the eve of Ukraine’s Independence Day (celebrated on August 24). The newly adopted sanctions target nearly 400 individuals and companies in Russia and abroad who are aiding Russia in sanctions’ circumvention and continue to help Russia finance its war machine. The sanctions list includes also companies and individuals from Belarus: “Rahachou factory “Diaproektor”, which is part of the already sanctioned BelOMO company that produces optics and other weapon parts; State Scientific and Production Association of Powder Metallurgy; LLC “Kugel” (a Russian company with an industrial robotics laboratory located in Senitsa); Hennadz Filipau, Director of “Diaproektor” company; Aliaksandr Ilyushchanka, Director at the State Scientific and Production Association of Powder Metallurgy; Ihar Kuzmenka, Anton Lavrentiev, Alena Titova, who are graded as “secondary sanctions risk” and are connected with the above mentioned sanctioned entities.

At the same time, the Balkan countries Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and also Ukraine, as well as the EFTA countries Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway joined sanctions adopted by the EU against Belarus on July 26. The countries will ensure that their national policies conform to the EU Council Decision that imposed this sanctions package. In turn, the European Union takes note of these sanctions and welcomes the step taken by the named EU candidate countries.

On August 29, it became known that the US State Department was offering a USD 2.5 million reward for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Volodymyr Kadaria, a Belarusian hacker who, according to the US officials, used “malvertising” to scam internet users from 2018 through March 2022. The State Department says Kadariya used a scheme to transmit the Angler Exploit Kit (AEK), other malware, and online scams to web users internationally. The AEK was a leading vehicle used by cybercriminals to deliver malware to devices. The reward offer comes just two weeks after the arrest made in Poland and extradition to the United States of accused hacker Maksim Silnikau, a Belarusian and Ukrainian dual national, concerning several cybercriminal operations since 2011.

On August 29, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, sent a letter to the leader of Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, confirming her awareness of the case involving possible extradition from Serbia to Belarus of Belarusian activist, movie director, and journalist Andrei Gnet. “The European Commission is in direct contact with the Serbian side. More specifically, the EU Delegation in Belgrade attended the court hearing and immediately contacted the authorities after the [earlier negative] decision of the Higher Court. We have communicated our position on Mr. Gnet’s case to the country’s leadership and outlined our expectations. Andrei Gnet’s case must be handled under international human rights laws and EU standards”, noted Ursula von der Leyen.

On August 29, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the Lithuanian MEPs Andrius Kubilius and Rasa Juknevičienė in Vilnius. Tsikhanouskaya congratulated both politicians on their re-election to the European Parliament and Andrius Kubilius on his nomination as a Representative at the European Commission. During the meeting, both parties discussed the strategy ahead of the so-called 2025 election in Belarus. Belarusian democratic leader noted that this election, which will neither be free nor democratic, cannot be recognized by the international community. The parties also discussed the regime’s recent escalation of the military and political situation, particularly at the border with Ukraine, as well as possible measures to prevent Belarus from being drawn into the war. The issues of keeping Belarus on the EU agenda, increasing support for the repressed, civil society, and independent media, as well as ways of cooperation between the democratic forces and the EU bodies, and holding hearings on Belarus, were also discussed during the meeting.

On August 28-29, upon the invitation of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a delegation from Belarus attended the 80^th anniversary celebrations of the Slovak National Uprising in Banská Bystrica. Reportedly, the delegation includes Lukashenka’s Ambassador to Austria Andrei Dapkiunas and descendants of the participants in the uprising and liberation of Czechoslovakia.

On August 30, Aliaksandr Lukashenka turned 70. On this occasion, Lukashenka’s strongest ally Vladimir Putin issued a decree awarding Lukashenka the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First. This highest Russian order is awarded for “exceptional merits that contribute to the prosperity, greatness, and glory of Russia”. Putin also sent a telegram to Lukashenka congratulating him on his 70^th Birthday and praising him as a “wise politician”. According to media reports, Putin has not granted the colonel of the Russian Army to Lukashenka, which he allegedly had promised the Belarusian dictator, as stated by Lukashenka himself in an interview in 2022. On the same occasion, the Marshall of Polish Sejm Szyman Golownja while speaking at the GLOBSEC international Forum in Czechia, continued to put pressure on the Lukashenka regime. According to the Polish politician, if Lukashenka wants the border crossings to be re-opened, if he wants to have transit corridors, he must cooperate with Poland and release political prisoners, first the representative of Polish minority, journalist Andrzej Poczobut.

On September 1, the “Day of Knowledge”, marking the start of the school year in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed Belarusian parents. In her address, she emphasized that just like her family, many Belarusian families are torn by the Lukashenka regime. Tsikhanouskaya underlined that the endless love of parents for their children gives the necessary foundation for them to overcome any obstacles on their path.

On August 16, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree pardoning 30 prisoners serving sentences for participating in mass protests in 2020 and other “protest crimes.” The names of those pardoned were not announced. The pardoned were 14 women and 16 men. Among them there were persons of retirement age and persons suffering from serious illnesses. The Belarusian authorities declared that all those pardoned “confessed their guilt, sincerely repented of what they had done and committed themselves to a law-abiding lifestyle.” After their release, they will be under the control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Earlier in July, Lukashenka had already released at least 18 political prisoners, including the former leader of the opposition Belaruski Narodny Front (Belarusian Popular Front) party Rygor Kastuseu, who was sentenced to ten years of imprisonment.

Human rights activists are aware of 25 political prisoners who were released in August. Among them there were Ksenia Lutskina, Volha Novikava, Ala Zueva, Volga Stabrouskaya, Vasil Berasneu, Iryna Sankouskaya, Katsiaryna Leu, Natallia Piatrovich, Tamara Karavai, Sviatlana Poluektava, Yaugen Chumila, Aliaksandr Galuza, Aleh Zykun, and Ruslan Krasou. Some political prisoners were pardoned, though they have refused to sign a petition for pardon addressed to Lukashenka. On the other hand, there were cases when those who refused to sign a petition were placed in a pre-trial detention center for 15 days, and also cases when people were not released, despite the fact that they fulfilled all the conditions for release. The state television channel ONT showed interviews with Ruslan Krasou, Aliaksandr Galuza, and Aleh Zykun. In interviews given to the Nashe Vremya program, they were forced to thank Lukashenka for early release. As the host of the program emphasized, none of them considered themselves to be a political prisoner. “And now they all understand”, the propagandist claims, “that they have become victims of influence from abroad”. There are many uncertainties regarding the release of political prisoners. Thus, according to Franak Vyachorka, senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, among 30 pardoned under the new decree were those who were released back in July. According to Vyachorka, the decree formalized the process. At the same time, according to human rights activists, political prisoners are currently being massively offered to repent by signing a petition for pardon. Meanwhile, the list of political prisoners in Belarus is updated almost daily with new convicts. Andrei Strizhak, co-founder of the solidarity fund BYSOL, called the release of political prisoners good news, but noted that repression continues and the strategic situation with political prisoners does not change. “It is important to understand that human lives are an element of political trade and an attempt by official Minsk to manoeuvre in difficult conditions. It is important to continue to create these conditions, making the existence of the dictatorship more and more unbearable. Lukashenka understands only the language of force,” he said.

On August 22, 15 people were recognized as political prisoners. These were Stanislau Shapel, Dzmitry Paznyakou, Anton Sharupa, Vital Sauko, Barys Grynkevich, Andrei Mireychik, Andrei Grygorieu, Victoria Volchak, Hanna Savachkina, Tatsiana Rusak, Uladzislav Navazhantsau, Dzianis Sakalou, Vilen Turgunou, Dzmitri Asiyuk and Yaugen Pugach. On August 23, seven more people were recognized as political prisoners. These were Anton Stankevich, Aliaksei Kisialyou, Natallia Zhygar, Natallia Davydulina, Vital Leskavets, Yahor Volkoau and Ihar Nazheeu. On August 29, six more people were recognized as political prisoners. These were Aliaksandr Tarasevich, Natallia Burakouskaya, Aliautsina Gudkova, Dzmitri Mirski, Dzmitry Blashchanitsa and Dzmitri Famin. On August 30, five more people were recognized as political prisoners – Katsiaryna Mendryk, Ksenia Susha, Ina Plahatniuk, Ihar Melnikau and Leanid Kozyr. Representatives of the human rights community claim that their imprisonment was politically motivated, and demand that the authorities review the sentences imposed on political prisoners, the preventive measures chosen, the type and length of punishment, while respecting the right to a fair trial and eliminating factors that influenced the qualification of acts. Human rights activists demand the release of these and other political prisoners and an end to repression.

The court of the Oktyabrsky district of Hrodna granted the prosecutor’s office’s claim to declare null and void the sale of an apartment of a suspect under “extremist” charges. According to the prosecutor’s office, she “facilitated extremist activities” in 2021-2023. In December 2023, a criminal case was initiated against her on charges of facilitating extremist activities, after which she left Belarus. “Realizing the illegality of her actions and the inevitability of punishment for them, back in April 2021, she issued a power of attorney to her brother for the sale of an apartment owned by her. In March 2023, he signed a contract for the sale of an apartment owned by his sister with his father. As a result, the apartment was sold for three thousand rubles. These circumstances indicate the fictitious nature of the concluded transaction, which was made in order to avoid foreclosure on the property of the accused,” the prosecutor’s office report. After the court declared the contract invalid, the Investigative Committee seized the apartment in order to “ensure possible property penalties, recover income obtained by criminal means, and ensure special confiscation.”

The Belarusian newspaper Novy Chas reported that one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, Maria Kalesnikava, who was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment, is being bullied in Homel colony N 4, where she is being held. Since October 2023, Kalesnikava has not been given letters, they were “teared up” in front of her, and she was “mocked in every possible way.” When Kalesnikava asked for medical care, doctors were not allowed to see her for a very long time. “When Maria Kalesnikava is taken somewhere, the whole prison is blocked,» a source of the newspaper said. He added that the prison staff mock other political prisoners as well, for example, human rights activist Anastasia Loika. “They don’t beat up, but bullying is widespread. In particular, they do not tell prisoners until the last moment whether they will have a meeting with relatives. Or they deprive you of a meeting,” the source said. The colony’s doctors also mock the prisoners: “One of the prisoners had severe blood pressure problems. She sometimes lost consciousness during the line-up of prisoners. They wanted to give her some kind of pill, but the woman could not even reach the table with the medicine – she got up and fell, got up and fell. Then the doctor said indifferently: “Can’t you walk? Crawl.”

A Belarusian deported from Sweden has been detained in Belarus after the Swedish authorities denied him political asylum. He and his mother participated in protests in 2020. After the start of mass persecution of protesters, they left for Sweden and asked for asylum there. In their petition, they indicated that a criminal case has been opened against them in Belarus, and they fear persecution for political reasons. Their asylum applications were rejected a year ago. After refusing appeals about a week ago, the Swedish authorities deported Belarusians back to their homeland. The man was detained right at the passport control. What became of his mother is not clear.

On August 29, the Emergency Humanitarian Aid Coalition, which includes the BYSOL Foundation, By_Help, Strana dla Zhyzni, and Dissidentby, issued a statement on the release of Belarusian political prisoners. Emergency Humanitarian Aid noted that the level of repression in Belarus is not decreasing and declares that it will continue to work to protect victims from the regime, adhering to the principles of human rights defenders.

On August 27, Larysa Belskaya, Permanent Representative of Belarus to the UN Office and other international organizations in Geneva, speaking at the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities session, said that Belarusian consulates stopped renewing passports due to Western sanctions, and admitted that this decision could be reversed. The statement was made in response to the UN Committee’s question on how to facilitate the procedure for extending or restoring documents for people with disabilities who reside abroad. Belskaya stated that the decision not to extend the documents abroad was made, inter alia, due to the fact that the documents could not be delivered from Belarus to the consulate on time. She noted that this was a temporary solution that will one day be cancelled. The decree, according to which Belarusian citizens can no longer exchange passports or receive other documents through the diplomatic missions of Belarus abroad, was adopted in September 2023.

On July 17, 2024, the Human Rights Committee issued opinions on complaints about violation by Belarus of the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of opinion, enshrined in Articles 19 and 21 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The complaints were submitted before the denunciation by the Belarus of the Optional Protocol, which entered into force on February 8, 2024. The applicants complained that they had been fined and arrested for a period of five to 10 days for participating or publicly calling for participation in unauthorized peaceful protests in various cities of Belarus between 2016 and 2020. The UN Committee noted that it had repeatedly previously found a violation by Belarus of the rights provided for in Articles 19 and 21 of the Covenant in similar circumstances and with respect to the same laws and practices. The Committee found nothing that could lead it to a different conclusion on the merits and, therefore, considered that the punishment of the applicants for participating in peaceful protests, although unauthorized, was a violation of their rights. The Committee decided the applicants should be provided with effective remedies in the form of full compensation. Accordingly, Belarus is obliged to take appropriate measures to reimburse the cost of fines and any legal costs incurred by the applicants in connection with the proceedings against them. In addition, Belarus must take all necessary measures to prevent such violations in the future. To this end, the Committee recommended that the national regulatory framework be reviewed so that the rights enshrined in Articles 19 and 21 can be fully realized. It noted that it would like to receive information from the Belarus within 180 days on the measures taken to implement the Committee’s opinions. Belarus is also invited to publish these opinions and ensure their wide dissemination.

On August 22, the European Union issued a statement noting that it “took note of the release of several political prisoners in Belarus, convicted for taking part in peaceful protests after the 2020 fraudulent presidential elections”. “We share the relief and joy of the released individuals and their families. We also take note of the fact that some of those released were prisoners requiring urgent medical assistance and call on the authorities to provide all prisoners with adequate medical care. The EU continues to urge Belarusian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners, often held in life-threatening conditions. There remain more than 1300 political prisoners in Belarus, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Ihar Losik, Maria Kalesnikava, Mikalai Statkevich, Maksim Znak and Viktar Babaryka who have been denied any possibility to communicate with the outside world for over 18 months,” the statement underlined.

On August 27, the hearing of the appeal of the Belarusian director and journalist Andrei Gnet against the decision of the Supreme Court of Serbia, which on May 31 decided to extradite Gnet to Belarus, ended in the Serbian Court of Appeal. The Belarusian authorities were seeking the extradition of Gnet from Serbia, accusing him of tax evasion. Gnet claimed political persecution. The Court of Appeal has 30 days to announce the final decision on the case. If the appeal is not successful, Gnet can be sent to Belarus any time. His lawyers, Maria Kolesava-Gudzilina and Anna Matievskaya, noted that they expect the court to take into account the danger that Andrei faces in the event of extradition, including possible human rights violations, unfair trial and torture. Actions in support of Andrei Gnet were held in 17 countries and a collective appeal by world cinema stars to Serbian officials was published; even The Guardian newspaper covered the case. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote in a letter to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya that the European Commission is in direct contact with Serbian authorities about the case of Gnet: “We have conveyed to the country’s leadership our position on the case and outlined our expectations. Andrei Gnet’s case should be considered in accordance with international human rights laws and EU standards.”