Belarus Review by iSANS — October 7, 2024 

On September 30, the next stage of combat readiness checks of the Air Force and Air Defense Units of the Armed Forces of Belarus began. It was not specified which units were being tested. It was noted that all ranges of the Armed Forces of Belarus would be involved in the fulfillment of combat training tasks. During the inspection, military conscripts were called up from the reserve. On October 6, the Defense Ministry of Belarus reported that units were marching to the exercise areas.

On October 1, it was reported that a command-staff training with the Western Operational Command began in Hrodna. The event is being conducted under the direction of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. The purpose of the training was to assess the degree of readiness of the management bodies to fulfill the tasks in the changing situation. The main emphasis was placed on the quality and justification of the decisions made, the development of effective measures to prepare the troops for the upcoming actions, and the development of modern options for problem-solving, considering the experience of the war in Ukraine.

On October 2, it became known that the 355^th Independent Tank Battalion of the 120^th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853) had been withdrawn from the Ukrainian border region to its permanent deployment point. The battalion was transferred to the Homel and Mazyr districts on August 11. It is currently unknown whether it is a rotation (and another tank battalion was transferred to the border region) or just the battalion’s withdrawal to the point of permanent deployment. In general, the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border has not changed.

Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus last week. Thus, on October 3, four Russian drones flew into the airspace of Belarus. It is known that at least one of them fell and exploded in Kalinkavichi (Homel region). At the time of drone flights in the airspace of Belarus, a helicopter with Aliaksandr Lukashenka on board was flying to Mikashevichi (Brest region). The forces of the Belarusian Air Force were not used to intercept the drones. Nothing is known about the fate of the three drones.

On October 4, during his visit to Pinsk district, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said that his flight was delayed for an hour due to the flights of drones in the southern regions of Belarus and unfavorable weather. During the flight, the politician personally saw how the drones were flying: “I see that they were flying very low, unusually low. Probably so that they couldn’t be seen from Ukraine by electronic means”. Lukashenka also admitted that drones (both Russian and Ukrainian) fly into Belarus, and the Armed Forces of Belarus shoot them down: “There have been several such cases from both Russia and Ukraine. We shoot down a lot of them. We don’t look to see whether they are Russian or Ukrainian.”

According to the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus, Russia supplied Belarus with more than 2,500 tons of ammunition, as well as dozens of military equipment, in nine months of 2024. The largest amount of ammunition was delivered to the 2631^st Air Base of Missile Armament and Ammunition (military unit 94017) – a total of 43 cars with ammunition with a total weight of about 1,100 tons. In addition, trains with ammunition totaling 1,430 tons arrived at the 391^st Artillery Ammunition Base, the 25^th Missile and Artillery Armament Arsenal, and the 1,393^rd Artillery Ammunition Base. There were also at least four shipments of military equipment during the year. Thus, six flatcars with artillery equipment arrived at Novobelitskaya station (Homel), six cars with automotive and seven cars with tracked equipment arrived at Ozerishche station (Minsk), and ten cars with radar equipment arrived at Lida station.

After the information was disseminated by the media that allegedly a German politician, MP at the Parliament of the Federal State of Saxony from the “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD) party Jörg Dornau used a workforce of Belarusian political prisoners at his farm near Lida, Hrodna region, the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on October 1 that it takes this information very seriously and that foreign investors should not participate in harsh political repressions in Belarus or benefit from them. The Foreign Ministry said in the statement that it processes the information verification. Moreover, the ministry condemns all forms of forced labor, torture, and lawlessness and continues to monitor the worsening situation with human rights in Belarus. The AfD party announced in a statement with the German news portal ZEIT online that if the allegations against their colleague Dornau were proven, the party would distance itself from such business practices and introduce party regulatory measures against the colleague Dornau.

On October 3, the European Parliament elected a chairperson of the Delegation for Relations with Belarus. Amid the attempt to join the delegation and become its chairman by the controversial Lithuanian politician Waldemar Tomaszewski, who generally stands for the re-establishment of relations with the Lukashenka regime, Polish MEP Malgorzata Gosiewska was elected as the head of the Delegation for Relations with Belarus in the new composition of the European Parliament. According to the Advisor of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Cooperation Anatol Liabedzka, this choice is good as Malgorzata Gosiewska has been in politics since the 1990s and is well familiar with the Belarus topic and has even visited Minsk once. Liabedzka considers that the Belarus topic will be kept on the EU’s agenda by joint efforts.

On October 3, the UK’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation of HM Treasury updated its Belarus sanctions list by adding the CJSC ALFA BANK BELARUS to the list. The sanctions are imposed on the bank because it “participates or participated in benefiting or supporting the Government of Belarus by conducting business in a sector of strategic importance to the Government of Belarus, namely the Belarusian financial sector.” The bank is now subject to the asset freeze. After the announcement, the Alfa Bank made a statement that it sees clients’ concerns and that its legal service is studying the document on sanctions, but the bank’s services and cards continue to operate in a standard regime. According to the bank’s officials, the imposed sanctions shouldn’t restrict the bank card operations.

On October 4, Polish Vice-Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk announced during a press conference that Poland will start building its first fortifications at its borders with Russia and Belarus in the framework of the “Eastern Shield” project. The construction is set to begin at the end of this year and early next year. The project will cost about PLN 10 billion and will cover the Pomeranian, Warmian-Masurian, Lublin, Podlaskie, and Subcarpathian voivodeships. Reportedly, in the upcoming three weeks, the fortification elements will be tried at Polish military training grounds. The Vice-Minister stated that the project will be carried out with partners – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

On October 5 and 6, a Belarusian festival of intellectual books, PRADMOVA, was launched in Vilnius, Lithuania. The festival will be carried out throughout two months in different cities and countries: October 19-20 in Berlin, October 16-17 – in Warsaw, October 30-November 1 – in Poznan. The festival was initially aimed at gathering writers, thinkers, and intellectuals in one place, creating a platform of meetings with readers, where the book becomes the center of debates and discussions. The festival started in Belarus six years ago and was held in different cities of Belarus. Currently, the festival is held abroad due to the political situation and forced exile of intellectuals from Belarus. A competition of illustrators of books ArtPradmova and an exhibition are also on the agenda of international events. The event is one of many initiatives to strengthen Belarusian national identity and keep the Belarusian culture alive amid ongoing russification and destruction of the Belarusian language and culture by the Lukashenka regime.

On October 6, it was reported that the Lithuanian border service and customs had registered this year over 600 weather balloons carrying contraband cigarettes from Belarus, and only 70 of them could be intercepted. According to the press secretary of the Lithuanian Border Service, Giedrius Mišutis, solely in September, there were 250 weather balloons entering Lithuania from Belarus, all of them carrying contraband cigarettes. Reportedly, public attention was drawn to the case of weather balloons after one of them landed at Vilnius Airport last week. According to the Lithuanian official, Lithuanian air Forces are informed in 100% of such cases, and Lithuanian Border Services are confronted with new challenges to intercept the balloons and prevent them from reaching their destinations.

During the period under review, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor Franak Viachorka was included in two “black lists” of the Lukashenka regime: On October 4, the Belarusian KGB included Viachorka in the list of “terrorists” and on October 6, the Belarusian Ministry of Interior included him into its list of “extremists”, along with twelve other persons. At the same time, on October 3, the profile on X of former Polish Ambassador in Belarus Artur Michalski was included in the “list of extremist materials” upon the decision of the Minsk Central District Court.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, went on a working visit to Poland, where she attended the Warsaw Security Conference, including the meeting “Strengthening Women’s Voices in Security and Defense.” In her speech, Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that Belarusian women have shown the world their unyielding strength, courage, and readiness to defend their rights and freedoms even in the most difficult situations. Moreover, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed the OSCE participating states during the discussion “Political Prisoners in Belarus: Working Together to Advocate their Release,” not only thanking the participating states for joining the Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus but also emphasizing the current situation with the political prisoners in Belarus, 29 of them (out of over 1300) being in critical condition, urged the international community to continue supporting Belarusians and putting pressure on the Lukashenka regime, to demand the release of political prisoners and stop the repression. The leader of the democratic forces also asked OSCE participating states and civil society organizations to endorse the referral of the situation in Belarus and neighboring states to the International Criminal Court. During her visit to Warsaw, the Belarusian leader presented the award “For Free Thought” in honor of Vasil Bykau, established by Aliaksandr Milinkevich in 2008. The award is given to individuals whose creative work supports freedom of speech and thought. This year, the award went to the musical band NAVIBAND. Its previous recipients included Liavon Volski, Ales Pushkin, Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu, Ryhor Baradulin, Zmitser Dashkevich, and Pavel Sevyarynets.

Also, during her visit to Poland, Tsikhanouskaya met with Polish Senate Marshal Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska to discuss an action plan during and after the regime’s 2025 presidential election, visa and e-visa issuance plans for Belarusians until 2026, Poland’s support for the referral against Lukashenka to the ICC, strengthened border controls to prevent sanctions circumvention, and support for Belarusian culture and media program. As part of the visit to Warsaw, she held a meeting with Poland’s Minister of Justice Adam Bondar, together with Pavel Latushka. The parties discussed Lithuania’s referral to the ICC and the situation of political prisoners, stressing the case of Andrzej Poczobut. During the meeting, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on the Polish minister to support the establishment of an interdepartmental working group in Poland focused on Belarus-related issues. During the meeting with Poland’s Minister of Interior Tomasz Siemoniak, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discussed the situation of political prisoners, addressed security issues at the Poland-Belarus border and Lithuania’s referral to the ICC, handed over new proposals from the democratic forces on the issues of the legalization of stay and residence conditions of Belarusians in Poland, exceptions allowing Belarusian-registered vehicles to enter Poland, and invited the minister to establish an interdepartmental working group on Belarus, among other topics.

The new verdict of political prisoner Volha Mayorava has become known. In March 2024, the court of the Zheleznodorozhny district of Homel found her guilty of “malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration” and sentenced her to another year and six months of imprisonment. This term was added to the 20 years of imprisonment, which she was sentenced to on October 17, 2022. Volha Mayorava was detained on January 4, 2021, in the framework of the so-called “Mikalai Autukhovich case.” She was found guilty of several criminal charges, including “attempted seizure of state power.” She pleaded not guilty at the trial. In one of the letters, she said that she may have diabetes mellitus.

On September 30, the trial of Alena Maslyukova, a member of “The Viasna” Human Rights Center, began in absentia in the Homel Regional Court. She was accused of assistance in extremist activities. The essence of the accusation is unknown even to Alena herself. A special procedure about Maslyakova was launched on May 23 this year.

The trial of Natallia Hauron has begun in the Minsk Regional Court. She was also charged with assistance to extremist activities. She was detained on January 23 during a KGB raid for helping political prisoners. Before sentencing, Natallia Hauron was arrested and placed in a pre-trial detention center.

On September 30, it became known about yet another sentence from the ex-leader of the “Young Front” movement, Zmiter Dashkevich. He was supposed to be released in July this year, but two months before his release, a new criminal case was opened against him on charges of “active participation in group actions that grossly violate public order” and “malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration.” He received an additional term of one year and three months in a high-security colony. Last year, he was also accused of malicious disobedience to the administration of the colony. Then, Dashkevich was sentenced to an additional year in a high-security colony. According to the initial verdict of July 14, 2022, Zmitr Dashkevich was sentenced to one and a half years in a penal colony and was supposed to be released on July 11, 2023.

The date of the next trial of political prisoner Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk has been set. Her case will be considered by the Rechitsa district court on October 14, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. This is the third time that she will be tried on charges of malicious disobedience to the requirements of the correctional institution administration. Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk was detained in January 2021. After that, her sentence was increased twice using the same accusations. At the end of May this year, she was supposed to be released, but she was transferred to the Homel pre-trial detention center, and a new case was opened against her.

Political prisoner Ruslan Akostka, who spent more than a year in a high-security colony in Horki, where Ales Bialiatski is being held, told the media about his conditions of detention. “The administration of the colony has a negative attitude towards communication with political prisoners. If they notice it, they will put you in a punishment cell. Ales understands this perfectly well and doesn’t talk much,” Akostka reported. “Ales has lost weight. This is due to heavy physical activity in the colony and poor nutrition. The typical menu is oatmeal in the morning, barley for lunch, and potatoes in the evening. Sometimes there are fish cakes. Meat, if there is any, does not get on everyone’s plate. Fruits are never given, vegetables are rare,” he clarified. Political prisoners are under pressure by reducing the amounts of money they are allowed to spend in the colony’s store, while the opportunity to buy extra food in a colony greatly affects their physical condition. “Ales Bialiatski, as well as other political prisoners, is charged for dust behind the bedside table, for a towel on a bunk, or clothes in a sleeping place. He is often thrown into a punishment cell, and he is also put into a cell-type room several times. For a long time, Bialiatski has not been allowed to contact his family. He is also not allowed to call his family”, said Akostka.

A new criminal case has been opened against former political prisoner Emma Stepulenok on charges of insulting a government official. She had previously been convicted, among other things, for a similar crime. Another “fact” she is being charged with “was established in the process of studying her account on a social network, where a comment insulting a representative of the government was posted in the public domain,” authorities explained. Emma Stepulenok was detained in September 2021 in the framework of the “Zeltser case” and convicted of insulting Lukashenka and a government representative. In May 2023, she was released after fully serving her sentence.

Activist Bozhena Zholud was sentenced in absentia to five years of imprisonment. She was found guilty of alleged illegal actions concerning information about private life and personal data, calls for sanctions, as well as insulting a judge. In addition, the court decided to recover from her in favor of Dzianis Kauganau, a police lieutenant colonel, deputy head of the Department of Law Enforcement and Prevention of the Department of Internal Affairs of the Rechitsky district Executive Committee, one thousand rubles (277 EUR) in compensation for “moral damages” and a state duty to the state income in the amount of 87 rubles (24 EUR).

Political prisoner Maksim Znak, sentenced to 10 years of imprisonment, spent a year in a cell-type room. This was reported by one of the prisoners, who was serving his sentence in the same colony as Znak. Maksim said that solitary confinement is difficult for him, but he is holding on. Maxim Znak was tried behind closed doors for participating in the Coordination Council and found guilty of publicly calling for harm to national security, creating an extremist formation, and conspiring to seize power unconstitutionally. The authorities keep him incommunicado — there has been no information from him for a very long time.

Priest Andrzej Yukhnevich, who has been imprisoned since May 8, continues to be pressured in various ways, including the use of threats. He had already suffered torture and obstacles in accessing basic needs, such as the opportunity to take a shower, which he was allowed only two months after his arrest. He is now facing false charges of crimes against the sexual integrity of minors, which can seriously damage his reputation. This is because Yukhnevich actively appealed the decisions regarding his imprisonment. Similar threats have already been made to other Catholic priests in Belarus, but it has never been possible to prove such crimes. In July 2024, it became known from Andrzej Yukhnevich’s lawyers that he was in a state of exhaustion.

The house of Alena Yanushkouskaya, an activist of the “Belarusian Christian Democracy” party, the author of the YouTube channel “Real Belarus,” in which she talked about the life of the Belarusian hinterland, was sold by the authorities at an auction on May 30 for 18.5 thousand rubles (EUR 5,000). According to Yanushkouskaya, the market price of the house was higher than the one for which it was sold. Alena, who left Belarus after the 2020 elections, has no other housing besides the one that was sold by the authorities. The money received for the house was used by the authorities to pay fines for her online streams from various events in Vitebsk and Minsk. Although their amount of fines is much less than the cost of the house, and after their payment, there should have been a large sum left, Alena did not receive anything.

On September 30, Lithuania referred the situation in Belarus and Lithuania to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to investigate the crimes against humanity committed by the regime of Lukashenka. In its referral, Lithuania stated that there were reasonable grounds to believe that since 1 May 2020, and continuing, crimes against humanity – including deportation, persecution and other inhumane acts – have been carried out against the civilian population of Belarus at the behest of senior Belarusian political, law enforcement and military officials, and that part of the element of these crimes was committed on the territory of Lithuania, bringing such crimes temporally, territorially, and materially (by subject-matter) within the jurisdiction of the Court. It was also reasonable to believe that part of the elements of these crimes was committed, and continues to be committed, on the territory of other state parties. Whilst the Republic of Belarus is not a state party to the ICC, the Court may exercise its jurisdiction where at least part of the conduct takes place in the territory of a state party – in this case, victims crossing into the territories of Lithuania and other states parties, as a result of expulsion or other coercive acts and/or other linked crimes. In his statement on the receipt of the referral, the ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC confirmed that his Office “will conduct a preliminary examination to examine the request within the limits of the ICC jurisdiction, and to determine, based on statutory requirements, if there is a reasonable basis to proceed with the opening of an investigation.” The consideration of the Belarusian situation has already been transferred to the Pre-Trial Chamber N 1 of the ICC, judges have been appointed, and a group has been formed to investigate this situation.

The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs fully supports Lithuania’s referral to the ICC regarding alleged crimes against humanity committed by the regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The Polish Foreign Ministry agreed that “there are reasonable grounds to believe” that the Lukashenka regime “could have committed crimes defined in the ICC Statute.” “Investigations of crimes against humanity can be an important step towards bringing the Lukashenka regime to justice for actions committed since May 2020”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Paweł Wroński said. “The Polish Foreign Ministry, in cooperation with other interested parties, continues to study this issue,” he noted.

Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou reacted to Lithuania’s referral to the ICC. “We know well why this is being done and by whom. You do not need to be a recognized expert in the field of international law to understand the absurdity and far-fetched accusations. The futility of Vilnius and its curators’ attempts is obvious to us. We calmly look at this fuss and do not stop calling on our neighbors for prudence and adequacy,” Ryzhankou said. “The outgoing Lithuanian administration, which has not shied away from using the dirtiest and most contrary to international law working methods for a long time, has decided to use Western-controlled courts, the biased nature of which has long been obvious to everyone,” he added.

The 35-year-old Belarusian citizen was not allowed into Georgia, where he has lived for the last two years, after a trip to Turkey. The official explanation is “other reasons provided for by Georgian legislation.” In his opinion, one does not need to be a journalist, activist, or diaspora figure to “be in the database [of persons not allowed to enter Georgia]”, he “sat quietly, paid taxes, was not involved anywhere.” Earlier, on September 16, Belarusian journalist Andrei Meleshka and his daughter were also not allowed into Georgia when they were on their way home in Batumi from a short trip to Poland.