Belarus Review by iSANS — October 6, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 29 September and 5 October, at least 17 Russian drones were detected in Belarusian airspace. There were no reports of any of them being shot down or crashing. It was also reported that during the night of 5 October, a Russian drone may have entered Polish airspace from Belarus.

On 29 September, the press service of the Internal Troops quoted Commander Mikalai Karpiankou as saying that the 1st Separate Special Police Brigade (military unit 5448) would soon be renamed the 1st Operational Brigade “with all resulting advantages.” The nature of these “advantages” was not specified.

On 30 September, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus announced that as part of expanding cooperation with Southeast Asian countries in the military sphere, the accreditation of Colonel Keisuke Yamada, Defence Attaché at the Embassy of Japan in Russia and concurrently in Belarus, had been completed.

Also on 30 September, the Military Information Agency “Vayar” reported that units of the 8th Radio Engineering Brigade continue to perform air defence combat duty. The brigade is constantly expanding its radar coverage by deploying mobile low-altitude radar groups, some of which are stationed near the state border.

On 1 October, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin held a working meeting in Minsk with the Commander of the Ethiopian Air Force, Genapa Yilma Merdasa. Khrenin said Ethiopia was one of Belarus’s most important partners in East Africa, including in the military and military-technical spheres, adding that both sides must “strictly follow the course set by the leaders of our states.” For his part, Merdasa said Ethiopia views Belarus as a strategic partner in the region. The parties discussed areas of mutual interest in bilateral military cooperation, with a focus on specific practical steps.

On 2 October, during the Valdai Discussion Club plenary session in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, saying: “We do not deploy [nuclear weapons] anywhere except in Belarus. The Americans, however, have them all over the world — across Europe, in Turkey, everywhere. But we have more — that’s true.”

On 3 October, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported that under the command of the North-Western Operational Command, battalion-level tactical exercises with live firing were conducted at the Barysau training ground. A tank battalion of the 19th Mechanised Brigade, reinforced by a motorised rifle company, artillery, air defence, electronic warfare, and engineering units, took part in the drills. The troops practised manoeuvrable defence operations, employing drones and operating with air support.

On 29–30 September, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya took part in the Warsaw Security Forum, which focused on European security and unity amid Russia’s ongoing aggression. In her remarks, she highlighted the threat to Belarus’s sovereignty, the risk of the country being drawn into the war, and the need to release political prisoners and support civil society. She also called on international partners to facilitate the mobility of Belarusians and to support independent media and humanitarian initiatives. On the sidelines of the forum, Tsikhanouskaya met with several politicians and representatives of international organisations, including Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, Lithuanian presidential adviser Kęstutis Budrys, U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg, former Georgian President Salome Zourabishvili, and Moldovan President Maia Sandu. Their discussions touched on the outcomes of the *Zapad-2025* military exercise, the release of political prisoners, and further coordination of international support for democratic Belarus.

On 2 October, Tsikhanouskaya participated in the European Political Community Summit, which gathered more than 50 European leaders and senior officials. In her address, she stressed that democratic Belarus should be regarded as a reliable partner for Europe, underlined the need to hold perpetrators of repression accountable, and reaffirmed that the release of political prisoners remains a top priority. On the margins of the summit, Tsikhanouskaya exchanged views with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. She thanked them for their solidarity and support for the Belarusian people and emphasised the importance of maintaining international pressure on the Lukashenka regime.

On 30 September, Alyaksandr Lukashenka met with the heads of government delegations participating in the sessions of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council and the CIS Council of Heads of Government. He once again called on the countries of the region to strengthen economic ties and “stand by one another,” stressing that in a time of global competition, they could “survive only together.” Lukashenka said that Russia should play a central role in maintaining the unity of allied structures, and that “justice, equality, and sincerity” should remain the foundation of cooperation. During his remarks, he also referred to recent comments by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling them “nonsense” and reiterating his readiness for direct dialogue with Kyiv. His statement continued an indirect exchange with the Ukrainian leader, who had earlier described Lukashenka as “a man living in his own world, where he occasionally meets with Putin.”

On 2 October, Alyaksandr Lukashenka held a series of closed-door meetings, one of which focused on oil refining. According to the his press service, participants discussed ways to improve efficiency and increase refining volumes, though the agenda details and list of attendees were not disclosed. The meeting came amid reports in Russian media that Moscow plans to boost imports of Belarusian gasoline to 300,000 tonnes per month — six times the September volume. The surge in fuel demand and shortages on the Russian market are linked to Ukrainian strikes on oil refining facilities in Russia, forcing Moscow to seek additional supply sources, including from Belarus.

The same day, during a session of the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin mentioned Belarus among the countries “sincerely striving to find a way out of the situation” and contributing to the establishment of a “just peace.” He placed it in the same group as BRICS partners, the United States (with reservation), several African and Islamic countries, as well as Hungary and Slovakia. Earlier in the same speech, Putin noted that Belarus remains the only country outside Russia where Moscow’s nuclear weapons are deployed. Taken together, these remarks reflect the Kremlin’s intention to reinforce the political standing of Minsk and the Lukashenka regime — a trend increasingly evident in recent Russian rhetoric.

On 30 September, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski met with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern European Affairs Chris Smith as part of the Polish–U.S. dialogue on coordinating efforts to secure the release of political prisoners in Belarus. According to Sikorski, the progress achieved so far resulted from the active engagement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and its envoys John Cole and Chris Smith.

That same day at the Warsaw Security Forum, U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg offered his own interpretation of the Minsk track — one shaped by his mandate on resolving the Russia–Ukraine war. According to Kellogg, Washington’s interest in Lukashenka stems from his potential role as a communication channel to Putin in efforts to find a settlement to the conflict, while the release of political prisoners represents a positive but secondary outcome. He added that Washington does not know what exactly Lukashenka communicates to Putin.

On 3 October, Lukashenka signed an order establishing a working group to revise Belarus’s draft socio-economic development programme for 2026–2030. The group is chaired by National Bank head and former prime minister Raman Halouchenka and includes delegates of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, current and former officials, and representatives of the industrial sector, academia, and civil society. Once finalised, the document will be submitted to the Assembly. Earlier, Lukashenka’s administration announced that the Assembly’s next session would take place at the end of the year — although it was initially planned for April 2025. The delay is reportedly due to the government’s inability to complete the five-year plan on time, and Halouchenka’s appointment is intended to accelerate the process and ensure the programme is ready by the time the Assembly convenes.

In June 2023, a closed trial was held in the Homel Regional Court in the case of Uladzislau Pudzyak, the former department manager of the Homselmash plant. He was found guilty of “high treason” and sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment. The exact result of the trial became known only last week. It is still unknown what exactly he was accused of. In August 2023, human rights activists recognised him as a political prisoner, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs included him in the list of “extremists”.

Political prisoner Volha Chukarava suffered a stroke in a pre-trial detention centre. She nearly lost her sight. Despite this, she remains in custody. Chukarava was detained in the autumn of 2024. She was accused of creating or participating in an extremist group and insulting a government official. She was sentenced to four years of imprisonment.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported that it has information about at least 78 detainees in the “Belarusian Hayun case” who have been placed in custody. “The total number of detainees is significantly higher; the political persecution of 78 people, which we are writing about, has been fully verified and confirmed,” the human rights activists noted. For some of the detainees, the measure of restraint in the form of detention was extended. It is also known that several trials in the case have already taken place. The detainees were charged with assistance to extremist activities.

Apostolic Nuncio to Belarus, Ignazio Ceffalia, and Bishop Aleh Butkevich tried to visit Priest Andrzej Yukhnevich in the Babruisk colony, but their request for a visit was refused. The Nuncio also tried to meet with Priest Henrikh Akalatovich, who is serving his sentence in the same colony. This request was refused as well. Andrzej Yukhnevich was a Priest of the Order of Missionaries of the Oblates of Mary Immaculate, Rector of the diocesan sanctuary of Our Lady of Fatima in Shumilina, and Head of the coordinating group of rectors and representatives of monastic communities in Belarus. In April 2025, he was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment. It was evident from the court schedule that he was charged with three criminal charges relating to minors. The trial was held behind closed doors. The details of the case are still unknown. He pleaded not guilty, and observers consider the charges fabricated and  politically motivated. Henrikh Akalatovich is the former rector of the church in Valozhin. In December 2024, he was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment for high treason, accused of “spying for Poland and the Vatican”. According to human rights activists, more than 90 priests in Belarus have been subjected to repression since 2020. Three of them were recognised as political prisoners.

Former law enforcement officer Henrikh Aheyeu from the Brest region was charged with several serious offences, including high treason and participation in a terrorist organisation, for his association with the organisation Bypol, which was recognised as a “terrorist organisation”, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported, citing Aheyeu’s former cellmate. According to the prosecution, Aheyeu allegedly traveled to Crimea on the instructions of Aliaksandr Azarau, a representative of Bypol. The former prisoner, who has not been named for security reasons, was in the same cell with Aheyeu in the autumn of 2024. According to him, the arrest took place in February 2024 on the Crimean Bridge, when Aheyeu was returning to Belarus. In a Simferopol pre-trial detention centre, he was held on a special floor belonging to the Russian FSB. Everyone there was held without any investigative actions, in their own clothes, without the possibility of receiving parcels and letters for years. Without any information from him, Aheyeu’s family thought he was dead. While in detention, he was tortured and threatened with death. In September, he was extradited to Belarus, but the FSB did not give him any documents about his detention, so the nine months he spent in the FSB detention centre will not be counted towards the term of his sentence. Aheyeu was transported to Belarus with a bag on his head. During the journey, he was not allowed to use the toilet once. Aliaksandr Azarau, the head of Bypol, denied his involvement in Aheyeu’s trip to Crimea.

A criminal case has been opened against Belarusian journalist Andrei Myaleshka, who lives in Poland, under charges of the creation of an “extremist formation” or participation in it, financing “extremist activities”, and facilitating “extremist activities”. According to the Belarusian Association of Journalists, Myaleshka’s place of registration in Belarus was searched. The charges became known only from the statements of the security officers, no documents were given to Myaleshka’s relatives. Recently, Myaleshka’s personal Instagram page, as well as the pages of a store with national symbols that he owns, were recognised as “extremist materials”. Myaleshka left Belarus under threat of persecution in 2021. He lived in Georgia for a while, then was forced to move to Poland after he and his youngest daughter were not allowed to re-enter Georgia when returning from vacation. His wife and eldest daughter remain in Georgia. According to Myaleshka, they cannot obtain Polish visas.

Political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut suffers from arrhythmia and high blood pressure and underwent surgery in a prison hospital. This was stated by the head of the unregistered Union of Poles of Belarus, Andżelika Brys, who visited Poczobut in the Navapalotsk colony on 23 September. The right to visit him was given only to her. Poczobut still cannot see his family members. According to Borys, Poczobut looks “very thin” and weighs 73 kg. Borys also said that the Belarusian Poles appealed to Lukashenka with a plea to release Poczobut.

Belarusian activists in Poland receive WhatsApp calls from KGB officers using Polish numbers, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. According to human rights activists, KGB officers learned information about the residence and activities of activists. The activists have already contacted the Polish law enforcement agencies.

Pavel Tserashkovich, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s adviser on science and education, wrote an appeal dedicated to the Teacher’s Day, which is celebrated in Belarus on the first Sunday of October. According to him, more than 6,000 teachers in Belarus have lost their jobs due to repression and more than 50 have been convicted under “political” criminal charges. “The ideologists of the regime declared that ‘the teacher is the president’s person’. The state is methodically destroying education in the Belarusian language, allowing the creation of military training programmes, militarist camps, and military-patriotic classes,” he said.

On 29 September, a group of UN experts, including Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; Claudia Flores, Chair, Ivana Krstić, Vice-Chair, Dorothy Estrada Tanck, Haina Lu, and Laura Nyirinkindi, Working group on discrimination against women and girls; Ganna Yudkivska, Chair-Rapporteur, Matthew Gillett, Vice-Chair on Communications, Miriam Estrada Castillo, Vice-Chair on Follow-Up, and Mumba Malila, Working Group on arbitrary detention; Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism; and Alice Jill Edwards, Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, called on Belarus to lift unnecessary restrictions on communication between women deprived of liberty on dubious extremism charges and their children. “We have received reports about women deprived of liberty on the basis of extremism charges who are being denied direct communication with their children and only allowed to correspond every two-three months,” the experts said. Belarus is bound by international law to ensure that any individual deprived of liberty is treated with dignity and humanity, which includes meaningful access to their family. State authorities are required to protect families, ensure special care for motherhood and childhood, and allow children to maintain personal relations with their parents. Furthermore, the UN Rules for the Treatment of Women Prisoners and Non-Custodial Measures for Women Offenders (Bangkok Rules) require facilitating contact between women prisoners and their children, including through home leave and replacing imprisonment for mothers with dependent children with non-custodial sentences. “We urge Belarus to immediately allow for regular, including in-person, communication between mothers deprived of liberty and their children, taking into account the best interests of the child,” the experts stressed. – “We encourage the authorities to consider, as far as appropriate, granting women alternative non-custodial measures.” The experts also recalled that the Belarusian anti-extremism legal framework and law enforcement practices are considered incompatible with international human rights law. They expressed regret that, despite multiple calls for the government of Belarus to bring its counter-terrorism and anti-extremism legal framework in line with international law, individuals continue to be detained under these laws.

The military prosecutor of the National Prosecutor’s Office of Poland ordered an inquiry into the facts of threats, blackmail, bribery, and recruitment attempts by the special services of the Lukashenka regime against employees of the National Anti-Crisis Management and delegates of the Coordination Council. Pavel Latushka, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, testified as a witness about these facts. It was reported that 12 employees of the National Anti-Crisis Management and delegates of the Coordination Council had become victims of these illegal acts. Latushka handed over to the Polish authorities documents related to the activities of the special services of Belarus against Belarusian political emigrants in Poland. The investigation is being conducted by investigators from the Polish Internal Security Agency.

The “2025 Trafficking in Persons Report”, published by the U.S. Department of State stated that Belarus does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so. Of the three tiers, Belarus remained in the lowest Tier 3, which includes Afghanistan, Iran, China, North Korea, Cambodia, Russia, Eritrea, Sudan, and others. The report stated that, in 2024, there was a government policy or pattern of forced labour in government “labour therapy centres.” Authorities forced thousands of individuals with reported drug or alcohol addiction, as well as political prisoners, to perform a wide range of labour at “labour therapy centres.” Reports indicated the government held at least 10,852 people in these centres in 2024. It was acknowledged that the government took some steps to address trafficking, including supporting a child trafficking awareness campaign. However, the government did not report investigating or prosecuting trafficking cases, convicting any traffickers, or identifying any trafficking victims. Belarusian authorities facilitated the transfer of unaccompanied Ukrainian children to Belarus, increasing their vulnerability to trafficking. Authorities continued to facilitate the entry into Belarus, and onward travel of, third-country nationals and asylum-seekers as part of a state-sponsored migration initiative that did not include screening for trafficking indicators. The government widely restricted the activities of civil society organisations, including those providing support to trafficking victims. Belarus was recommended, among other things, to: cease the use of forced labour in “labour therapy centres”; vigorously investigate and prosecute trafficking crimes and seek adequate penalties for convicted traffickers, including complicit officials, which should involve significant prison terms; cease the facilitated transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus and take all necessary steps to prevent trafficking among this population, including by ensuring these children’s safe return to their parents or guardians; proactively identify trafficking victims by screening vulnerable populations, including migrants, refugees, Chinese nationals, and individuals in commercial sex, for trafficking indicators.

During the past week, Belarusian propagandists widely expressed outrage over comments made by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who on 29 September referred to Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka as “old men” and suggested that Lukashenka had been “living in his own world” for 30 years — rejecting the Belarusian ruler’s earlier proposal to “meet and talk,” voiced during his visit to the Kremlin. Propagandist Ryhor Azaronak responded with insults on his Telegram channel, calling Zelensky “a louse in a stinking T-shirt” who opposes talks with Lukashenka because he “doesn’t want peace and will keep feeding on Ukrainian corpses.”

Political commentator Andrei Lazutkin, writing for Minskaya Praŭda, interpreted Zelensky’s reaction as a sign that Kyiv intends to continue the war, “confident in new resources through the next military budget.” He added that if peace talks take place, “Belarusian authorities will not be invited,” since “for Zelensky, war is a way to stay in power and make money.” MP Vadzim Hihin claimed that Lukashenka had made “an offer no responsible leader could refuse,” but that Zelensky “responded in his usual rude manner.” Hihin further described Zelensky as “a jester” incapable of becoming a true statesman — “he plays a role, poses in military uniform, imagines himself a commander, travels abroad, but acts hysterically and rudely — it’s all theatre, except the blood is real.”

Similarly, pro-government analyst Aliaksandr Shpakouski called Zelensky “an arrogant comedian” and “a clown in a bloody circus,” contrasting him with Lukashenka, whom he praised as “a man of political wisdom” and “a historical figure safeguarding the sovereignty and peace of his country.”

Propagandists also circulated unsubstantiated accusations against the Ukrainian government, claiming that Kyiv was behind “provocations” in Europe. SB. Belarus Segodnya columnist Anton Papou suggested that the “drone panic in Europe” could have been orchestrated by the Ukrainian intelligence, citing their “experience with drone provocations” and the “presence of Ukrainian migrants” across the continent. His colleague Aliona Krasouskaya described Ukraine as “a festering abscess on the map” allegedly seeking to drag NATO and EU countries into direct confrontation with Russia. She and other state media figures amplified a statement from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) alleging that Ukraine’s military intelligence was preparing a major provocation that could include “a simulated attack on critical infrastructure in Poland.”

During the reporting period, representatives of the Lukashenka regime intensified their criticism of the “collective West,” particularly the EU and European leaders. On 1 October, Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou warned that the West would face “defeat” unless it found a way to integrate itself into “the architecture of the new world shaped by the global majority.” He urged the EU to abandon its “lingering sense of superiority,” describing it as “a small patch of land” that “lacks resources, territory, and unity,” yet continues “to impose its will on others.” Ryzhankou contrasted this with China’s “globally unifying initiatives based on respect for national traditions and sovereignty,” and concluded that only dialogue could prevent the West from being “pushed aside by history.”

Pro-government commentator Vadzim Yalfimau predicted that Western politicians would be “punished by history for ignorance,” claiming they had “forgotten the lessons of World War II” and “fallen back into imperialism, nationalism, fascism, and Russophobia.” His outburst was triggered by reports that the EU planned to create an “anti-drone wall” to protect its borders from Russian threats. Yalfimau wrote that Russia and Belarus would soon become “completely unreachable for the drooling fangs of the EU,” concluding: “Like a rabid dog, only a good strike with a club works on you.”

At the same time, state-controlled outlets expressed disappointment over the results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections. Ryhor Azaronak lashed out at what he called “anti-European forces,” accusing them of weakness and surrender: “The leaders are empty and pitiful… another ancient Orthodox nation will now meekly go to slaughter.” Kseniya Lebiadzeva described the vote as “European-style,” meaning that “self-appointed elites and money, not the people, made the decision.” In SB. Belarus Segodnya, Liudmila Hladkaya claimed that President Maia Sandu had “drawn her own victory” and that Moldova’s government was now “ruled by Romanians under the EU and the U.S. control,” predicting the “militarisation of the state” and “a Ukrainian-style scenario.” MP Vadzim Hihin added that “Western propagandists celebrate their victory,” arguing that “European oligarchs will not tolerate another Hungary or Slovakia and will begin cleansing everyone.»

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Best regards, iSANS team