- MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
- PROPAGANDA
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 40)
A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).
Russian drones used in the war against Ukraine continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus. During the week, at least 15 Russian Shahed-136/131 drones flew into the airspace of Belarus. Thus, on October 21, a flight of two Shahed-136/131 was recorded. On the night of October 21-22 – one Shahed-136/131. On October 26 – up to ten Shahed-136/131. On October 27 – at least two Shahed-136/131. Subsequently, most of them flew to Ukraine. No destruction of the drones by Air Defense Forces was reported. In total, at least 90 Russian drones have flown into the airspace of Belarus since mid-July 2024. Six of them were shot down by the Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus or the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or crashed on the territory of Belarus.
On October 22, the dispatch of Belarusian citizens called up for compulsory military service started. A total of about 10,000 people are planned to be sent to the troops in October-November. The number of conscripts has been unchanged for the last few years. According to officials, the number of those willing to serve under contract instead of compulsory military service is growing. Currently, 36% of soldiers and sergeants in the Armed Forces of Belarus are “contract servicemen.”
On October 23, Minsk hosted a meeting of the joint board of the defense ministries of Belarus and Russia. Speaking at the meeting, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin talked about preparations for the joint strategic exercise Zapad-2025 of the Armed Forces of Belarus and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. According to the official, the exercise will be “the main event of joint training of military authorities and troops in 2025 and will create conditions for further improvement of the current system of ensuring military security.” The board discussed the main approaches to the preparation and conduct of the exercises. Their design was also approved. Later, commander of the Air Force and the Air Defense Forces Andrei Lukyanovich said in state media that the “Zapad-2025” exercise will be held in September 2025 in Belarus. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said during the board meeting that the preparation of the Treaty between Belarus and Russia on military security guarantees, as well as a new Security Concept, was being finalized.
On October 24, the Belarusian Defense Ministry published a tender for the purchase of 16 sets of Chimera CX10 unmanned aerial systems from the Chinese company iFlight. It is planned to spend USD 139,500 on the purchase.
On October 27, Vadzim Dzyanisenka, commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces, told state media about the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border. According to the official, “[Lukashenka] decided to adequately respond to what is happening: depending on the situation on the [Ukrainian] side, the forces covering the southern parts of the [Belarusian] border are either increasing or decreasing.” The main task of Special Operations Forces units on the Belarus-Ukraine border is to assist border guard agencies. In addition, along the southern border of Belarus, there are ammunition depots (in Rechitsa, Homel and Dobrush districts of Homel region) and airfields ( in “Zyabrouka,” “Mozyr” (“Bokov”) and “Luninets”). The Belarusian military protects the above-mentioned objects. According to Dzyanisenka, in general, the situation on the border is “calm.”
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
On October 22, the Polish Ministry of Defense stated that in the period between January 1 and October 15 of this year, as many as 63 Polish soldiers were injured on the Polish-Belarusian border. During this time, almost 28,000 attempts to illegally cross the border have been recorded – more than 2,000 more than during the whole last year. The hybrid war waged by Russia and Belarus continues unabated.
On October 23, the Lukashenka regime announced the date for the next presidential election after the 2020 rigged presidential elections triggered mass unrest in the country and pushed Belarus into the deepest political crisis since its independence from the USSR. The date was set to January 26, 2025. The election date was set earlier than expected as the previous election was in August 2020. The Belarusian democratic forces reacted to the setting of the election date by urging the Belarusian population and the international community not to recognize these sham elections. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya wrote on her X profile: “Lukashenka has announced the date of his ‘reelection’—January 26. It’s a sham with no real electoral process, conducted in an atmosphere of terror. No alternative candidates or observers will be allowed. We call on Belarusians and the international community to reject this farce.” Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Pavel Latushka stated that similar to the 2020 “inauguration,” Lukashenka kept the election date secret as he is afraid of his people. Latushka underlined that there are no basic preconditions for holding elections in Belarus. According to him, the process called “elections” by Lukashenka is nothing more than an attempt of the dictator to resubmit himself for the post. The Representative of the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for Constitutional Reform and Parliamentary Solidarity Anatol Liabedzka said in an interview with Svaboda, that this election campaign cannot be called otherwise than a special operation by Lukashenka to stay in power. Senior Political Advisor of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Aliaksandr Dabravolski said to Svaboda that it doesn’t matter when the “elections” would take place as alternative candidates cannot run in the elections. According to Dabravolski, many potential candidates are imprisoned, and repression continues in the country. Moreover, there won’t be any election observers, independent media present at the elections, and a fair vote count. The Belarusian democratic forces issued a joint statement on the 2025 “election,” clearly declaring their position and calling on Belarusians and the international community to act.
On October 25, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya thanked the Latvian Parliament Saema for a decision allowing Belarusians with a refugee or alternative status in Latvia to register their vehicles without certification and customs clearance for up to three years. This important decision was made by the Latvian Parliament on that day.
During the period under review, from October 22 to October 26, the 16th summit of BRICS took place in Kazan, Russia. Aliaksandr Lukashenka arrived in Kazan on October 23, where he attended the summit and gave several interviews to foreign media. Lukashenka was again shown by the Belarusian propaganda as an internationally important leader who not only attends international summits but also holds meetings with foreign Presidents and Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the meeting (for more details, see our Propaganda section below). During this meeting, Lukashenka was shown communicating friendly with the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Guterres was even hugging Lukashenka. This video and the fact that the UN Secretary-General arrived in Kazan caused a wave of criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s allies.
HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
Since 2020, more than six thousand persons have been convicted in Belarus for political reasons, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. In total, the names of 7,400 defendants in criminal cases related to protests are known to human rights defenders. Out of 6,013 convicted, almost a quarter are women.
At least 360 people were detained in Belarus on political grounds from July to September this year, according to “Viasna” Human Rights Center. “From July 1 to September 30, 1,221 cases of politically motivated repression were recorded in Belarus. These are searches, interrogation calls, trials, etc. 360 of them are detentions. Human rights defenders are also aware of at least 400 administrative trials in three months,” human rights defenders reported. They note that in the third quarter, Art. 19.11 of the Administrative Code (“Distribution of extremist materials”) remained the most common article applied. In three months, at least 380 people were convicted of it.
The Mohileu Regional Court sentenced political prisoner Maksim Khvashchynski to seven years of imprisonment. He was tried on charges of slandering Lukashenka and creating an extremist formation or participating in it. Khvashchynski was detained on February 26, 2024, the next day after returning from Poland.
The Hrodna regional court sentenced in absentia former Lida policeman Yury Makhnach to 15 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony, as well as a fine of 20,000 rubles (about 5,650 Euro). He was found guilty of high treason. The verdict was delivered on October 7. Yury Makhnach was the commander of the Patrol and Guard service company in the Lida police department. In August 2020, he publicly spoke about the preparation of the police for punitive “sweeps” and the beating of detainees. Later he resigned from the police and left due to the danger of persecution.
Ihar Ilyash, the husband of political prisoner, journalist of Polish Belsat TV channel, Katsiaryna Bakhvalava (Andreyeva), has been detained. His handcuffed photo was published by the Telegram channel of the security forces. The reason for the detention was not reported, however the security forces hint at his former journalistic activities. Katsiaryna Bakhvalava has been behind bars since November 15, 2020. In February 2021, she was sentenced to two years of imprisonment on chargers of “organizing actions that grossly violate public order” (for live broadcasting from the scene of the violent dispersal of demonstrators by security forces on “Ploszad Peremen”). In 2022, she was charged with “ high treason” and sentenced to eight years and three months in a high-security colony.
A resident of the Minsk district was sentenced to five years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and a fine of 20 thousand rubles (around 5650 Euro). He was found guilty of financing and otherwise facilitating extremist activities.
Human rights activists recognized eight more persons as political prisoners. They were accused of or convicted on charges of participation in extremist formation or financing of extremist activities. “The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB arbitrarily recognize groups of citizens united by public or political interests, criticizing the actions of the authorities and demanding changes in the state policies, as extremist groups. This opens the way to arbitrary criminal prosecution and imprisonment of their participants and respondents as a disproportionate measure of restriction of the right to association and freedom of expression, “Viasna” Human Rights Center stated.
Belarusians who have left the country will not be able to vote abroad and the Central Election Commission will not create polling stations there. This was announced on October 24 by the Сhair of the Central Election Commission Ihar Karpenka. According to him, the creation of polling stations abroad “is not provided for by Belarusian legislation.” Those who live outside the Republic of Belarus will have to return to the country to vote, he said.
The democratic forces of Belarus propose to vote against everyone in the “presidential elections” of 2025. This is stated in the joint statement adopted by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the United Transitional Cabinet, and the Coordination Council. “Due to repression, Belarusians will not be able to see democratic candidates on the ballot papers, participate in rallies and campaign. Fearing another electoral defeat, the regime has de-registered all opposition parties, and more than 1,700 non-governmental organizations, and shut down all independent media. These elections are even further from free elections than ever before,” they emphasize. The authors demand an end to all types of repression and the release of all political prisoners, the realization of the right of all citizens of Belarus to fully participate in elections regardless of their place of residence, ensuring freedom of assembly and equal access to the media, holding elections following international OSCE standards and under the supervision of observers. “If these requirements are not met by the regime, we consider what will happen in 2025 to be an imitation of the electoral process,” they stated.
At least 12 Ukrainian citizens are being held in Belarusian prisons for political reasons, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. These are people whom the authorities accuse of “subversion”, “espionage” or other politically motivated crimes.
The State Security Committee has included in the list of “terrorists” 20 analysts and experts convicted in absentia in the case of conspiracy to seize power and participation in an “extremist formation.” The Belarusian authorities call them “Tsikhanouskaya’s analysts”. These are independent political scientists, sociologists, economists, and several employees of Tsikhanouskaya’s Office.
After the election date was set for January 26, 2025, the security forces strengthened their control over Belarusians previously convicted under political charges. All those who are registered with the criminal enforcement inspections as having served their sentences are given an “official warning”, which they are obliged to sign. The text says “about the inadmissibility of planning and committing actions aimed at forcibly changing the constitutional order, seizing or retaining state power unconstitutionally,” and other actions that fall under the definition of “extremism” in the interpretation of the Lukashenka regime. Verbally, staff of the criminal enforcement inspections warns former political prisoners that it is forbidden to distribute “extremist materials”, post and forward messages from channels recognized as extremist, and “interfere with the legitimate activities of state bodies,” including election commissions. The frequency of police inspections of former political prisoners and those convicted to a restriction of freedom with referral to an open-type correctional institution (so-called “home chemistry”) has increased, including at night. It can be assumed that this situation will continue throughout the election campaign.
A few days ago, the Pardon Commission, headed by Prosecutor General Andrei Shved, was tasked to examine the cases of those convicted under political charges. Aliaksandr Lukashenka said this in an interview with BBC journalist Steven Rosenberg on the margins of the BRICS summit in Kazan. He explained that he instructed the Commission to consider pardoning people who “have realized [their guilt], do not violate the order and behave in a dignified manner.” In the same interview, Lukashenka declared his readiness to consider the petition for pardon of Maryja Kalesnikava. Tatsiana Khomich, Maryja Kalesnikava’s sister, said that her family “welcomes Lukashenka’s willingness to consider pardoning Maryja”. “We are very much waiting for her to be released. However, there is still no communication [of Maryja] with relatives and a lawyer,” she noted.
Russia supports the massive repression carried out by the Belarusian regime against its own citizens and is ready to assist Lukashenka in case attempts to destabilize the situation in the country are made. This was stated by the Russian Ambassador to Minsk Boris Gryzlov in an interview with RIA Novosti media. Gryzlov sees a possibility of destabilization within a period of the reappointment of Aliaksandr Lukashenka to the presidency in 2025. “There is no reason to believe that Belarusian law enforcement and special services will need additional assistance. They manage their tasks great. But if necessary, Russia, within the framework of its obligations, will certainly provide assistance and support, which our closest ally and strategic partner will ask us for,” he said. iSANS commented on Gryzlov’s statement.
In Poland, Belarusians who have suffered torture in Belarus can seek justice within the framework of universal jurisdiction. The press service of the United Transitional Cabinet in this regard claimed that “the Warsaw District Court allows for consideration of the case based on Paragraph 1 of Article 110 of the Polish Criminal Code (crime of terrorism) and Article 113 of the Criminal Code (prosecution of crimes based on international treaties, use of universal jurisdiction). As noted, “these two circumstances create an opportunity for Polish prosecutors to insist on investigating criminal cases related to crimes of torture against Belarusian citizens.”
The International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus has published a public investigation “Torture and ill-treatment in the women’s colony No. 4 in Homel.” It notes that although the colony is designed for more than 1,700 persons, according to unconfirmed reports, about three thousand persons have been serving sentences there since 2020-21. Human rights activists described all the stages of admission to the colony, including quarantine and distribution to detachments, as well as working conditions and the system of punishment of political prisoners. Siarhei Ustinau, co-founder of the Committee, stressed the fact that the administration of the colony takes special measures to arrange provocations against political prisoners: places them together with those convicted of murder, “sets prisoners against each other”, and encourages snitching. Among other practices described in the report are pressuring political prisoners who refuse to write a petition for clemency and banning them from visiting churches and a gym, and, since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, correspondence with everyone except close relatives is also forbidden.
Great Britain is working closely with Lithuania and other international partners to hold the Belarusian authorities to account for the appalling ongoing human rights crackdown in the country. “We remain committed to wider accountability measures, including through funding the International Accountability Platform for Belarus which collects and preserves evidence of crimes committed by the Belarusian regime”, the Parliamentary Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Baroness Chapman of Darlington reported in response to a parliamentary question to the Government regarding its position on Lithuania’s referral to the International Criminal Court regarding alleged crimes against humanity committed by the regime of Lukashenka. Earlier, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it fully supports Lithuania’s referral. The Polish Foreign Ministry agrees that “there are reasonable grounds to believe” that the Lukashenka regime “could have committed crimes defined in the ICC Statute.” The Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also supported the appeal. “The Ministry closely cooperates with other government agencies in assessing the content of the appeal and arguments presented by the Republic of Lithuania,” said Diāna Eglīte, spokeswoman for the Latvian Foreign Ministry. She confirmed “the continued commitment of the Republic of Latvia to support the work of the ICC in its promotion of global justice and an effective international criminal justice system”. It should be noted that public support for Lithuania’s referral to the ICC is important to demonstrate the unity of the EU countries in condemning crimes against humanity. However, submission of referrals to the ICC from other countries, including Poland and Latvia, would be an effective tool for bringing the Lukashenka regime to justice.
According to a recent rating published by Freedom House, the situation with Internet freedom in Belarus is deteriorating. This year, the country scored only 22 points out of a possible 100, which is a further decrease from 25 points in 2023. The authors of the report attribute the deterioration of the situation to increased repression by the Belarusian government, which actively suppresses online voices and blocks independent media and information sources. Authorities have also resorted to legislative measures to criminalize online content created by those who they consider as “extremists” or “terrorists.”
Belarus has taken the 105th place in the Rule of Law Ranking, which is compiled annually by the World Justice Project. In comparison with the previous version of the rating, the country has lost one position. When forming the rating, eight indicators were taken into account, from the limitation of the powers of the authorities and openness of the government to an assessment of civil and criminal justice. Belarus has the worst position in terms of limiting the powers of government (138th out of 142 countries), openness of government (134th place), and fundamental rights (129th place).
PROPAGANDA
During the period under review, propagandists and experts continued to closely follow the electoral situation in Moldova, making no secret of their sympathies for pro-Russian candidates and sharply criticizing the possibility of Moldova choosing the “European path.” Aliaksei Dzermant calls Moldova “Eurasia” and recommends that opposition candidates unite because then “the chances of bringing down this puppet [Maia Sandu] and putting Alexandru Stoianoglo into the presidency become real”. Nevalfovich, a Telegram channel associated with Belarusian security forces, claims that Moldovans “understand perfectly well that European integration is a way to war with Russia” and do not want to “become a tool in the geopolitical games of the USA.” For this channel, aggressive rhetoric against the leadership of Ukraine and Western countries is characteristic; for example, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was called a “Nazi grandmother” and “gynecologist of the EU” by anonymous authors after she called the aggravation of the migration crisis on the border with Poland a “hybrid attack of Russia and Belarus” and promised to provide support to the Poles.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s personality cult continues its gradual formation. On October 21 on the air of ONT, propagandist Ihar Tur suggested calling Lukashenka not “Batska” but the “father of the nation,” as the latter, in his opinion, teaches his children to solve problems and tasks independently. However, he will always “be there for them, but as a wise assistant.”
After the head of the Central Election Commission of Belarus, Ihar Karpenka, announced on October 23 that the next presidential election will be held on January 26, 2025, the Lukashenka-controlled media and experts immediately picked up the topic, openly hinting to their fellow citizens who they should vote for and emphasizing the importance of participation in the elections. Aliaksei Dzermant: “What kind of future do we need? The preservation and development of a sovereign state in Belarus are based on the values of social justice, friendship of peoples, and scientific and technological progress. Positioning Belarus as a western outpost of the uniting Eurasia, the collective East, developing close integration relations with Russia and China. I see only one person who successfully implements this course in practice. This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka.” Piotr Piatrouski: “The presidential election scheduled for January 26 will be a referendum for peace, development, and social justice. There is no alternative to Aliaksandr Lukashenka at this stage. And in the future, there can be only a “collective Lukashenka” who will continue his course.” Ryhor Azaronak: “The chairman of the CEC has laid everything out on the account of the elections. He even said how he sees the future President. Told how we would pressure hungry people to ensure electoral sovereignty. Spoiler – everything is organized so that no rat can poke its nose in anywhere. And let others play ‘democracy’.” Azaronak also commented on the fact that now Belarusians won’t be able to vote for their candidate at polling stations abroad, saying that “one should vote at home” because “the President is chosen by those who live here”, and those who left should be subjected to “ostracism”, as they “have done something wrong in respect of the society.” Pro-government politician Aleh Haidukevich said he was going to run for office. “I want enemies to vomit from every presidential candidate who is running in the elections,” he said on the air of The First Informational. The politician also stressed that he considers “enemies” all people who “hate our president” and that “only patriots” should take part in the election so that opponents of the authorities “look at the presidential candidates and realize there is nothing to catch in this country.”
On October 23, Aliaksandr Lukashenka gave an interview to BBC journalist Steven Rosenberg on the margins of the BRICS summit in Kazan. According to him, he “always wanted to have normal relations with the West,” but the West started “imposing sanctions under certain pretexts.” The politician unexpectedly stated that Belarus did not provide Russia with territory to enter Ukraine but instead voiced a version, according to which, after the exercise “Union Resoluteness-2022” in Belarus, some Russian troops “turned to Kyiv” because, according to him, they were “provoked”, and “one should ask Zelensky” about the nature of this provocation. Asked by Rosenberg why Belarus did not support Ukraine at that moment, the dictator replied that Russia is an ally of Belarus and the relationship between them is “closer than between the British and the Americans.” “Ukraine has behaved hostile towards Belarus: it imposed sanctions against us earlier than the Anglo-Saxons. I have supported and will continue to support Russia as long as it needs. Just as you say you’ll support Ukraine,” he said. He also assured that the degree of his involvement in the war is minimal, that he will protect the interests of the Belarusian people, and as long as those interests “coincide with Russian interests,” he will act with Putin “hand in hand.” Lukashenka said that Russia would never use the nuclear weapons that are stationed in Belarus without consulting him. Rosenberg asked him about his readiness to give such permission to Putin; Lukashenka declared his “absolute readiness” if “even one boot crosses the border of Belarus.” At the same time, he again promised that Belarus “is not going to attack anyone,” and with Ukraine, where “our people, the Ukrainians,” live, he would generally like to “cooperate,” so “it is necessary to end this war now.” Rosenberg clarified that since the nuclear weapons delivered to Belarus are Russian, Lukashenka cannot order their use. “How the weapons will be used, I won’t tell you. I’ll tell you only one thing: without my permission, these weapons can’t be used. But if it’s necessary, it will be used,” he replied. During the interview, Lukashenka also hinted that the West should not give Zelensky long-range missiles, as, according to him, it is “unacceptable” for the president of the Russian Federation, while Putin may be approached, for example, by the Houthis with a request to provide them with coastal complexes “Bastion,” which could deliver a “terrible blow” to British or American aircraft carriers.
On the same day, Lukashenka was interviewed by Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva. When asked if he would run in the upcoming elections, the dictator replied: “Yes, Olya, I will. If Eismant [his press secretary] and my supporters say it’s necessary. And they, of course, will say this…”. Against the background of the statement, propagandists launched a flash mob on the Internet to create the appearance that Belarusians are asking Lukashenka to go for another presidential term. Almost identical videos appeared in the Telegram channels of Belarusneft and the Ministry of Defense. They begin with the above-mentioned fragment of Lukashenka’s interview with Skabeeva. Then there are shots showing people saying the word “must” while the military in their video are lined up in the shape of this word. On October 24, Life staffer Alexander Yunashev asked Natallia Eismant why Lukashenka made such an important announcement in Russia and not in his home country. The spokeswoman expressed the opinion that Lukashenka’s answer “was not so unambiguous” and advised the journalist not to look for “some deep conspiracy” because, according to her, everything just “coincided” – allegedly, while Lukashenka and his entourage were on their way to Kazan, the deputies in Belarus “decided everything and decided on the date” and he learned about this decision upon his arrival.
On October 24, Aliaksandr Lukashenka also met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Kazan. He presented the Secretary General with a statue of Storks as a symbol of peace and said: “This is a symbol of peace. Our storks. We, António, need peace very much.” Lukashenka praised Guterres for his “decisiveness and open expression of his position” and noted that he supports his views on the situation in the Middle East.
On October 25, the Russian newspaper Izvestia published an interview with Lukashenka, in which the latter stated that he could not allow Belarus to become part of the Russian Federation and that “nobody authorized him to do so.” In his opinion, if a politician makes “any movement in this direction,” the Belarusian people will “blow him away.” Lukashenka said that it’s impossible to offer assistance and cooperation in exchange for joining the Russian Federation: “We’ll help you and further join Russia. You can’t put questions in such a way. It is impossible and unrealizable. I am even afraid to say that this is a war. But you see our relations with Putin. A lot of negotiations, contacts, personal and other. We have never had such a question”. According to him, the Union State can build “such relations, which will be closer and stronger than in a unitary state. Lukashenka also voiced his idea that de facto Crimea is Russian, but de jure it is not, since “legally this issue has been settled [only] unilaterally.” Although the “so-called international community” does not recognize Crimea as Russian, it “does not care” about it, which is why the authorities cooperate with both Crimea and eastern Ukraine [the regions seized by the Russian Federation]. He believes that it is “not quite right for Ukraine to dictate conditions” with whom Belarus should cooperate and with whom it should not because “Ukraine was the first, before the European Union and America,” to impose sanctions against the authorities of Belarus.
Best regards,
iSANS team