Belarus Review by iSANS — October 20, 2025 

On 17–19 October, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya held a series of meetings in the Netherlands. On 17 October she met with ambassadors from more than 20 EU member states, setting out her priorities: the release of political prisoners, support for civil society and independent media, the preparation of reforms, and engagement with officials inside Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya stressed that democratic forces “are preparing reforms, countering propaganda and seeking allies within the system,” and said the strategic aim is “to make the European prospect a real alternative to the ‘Russian world’.” On 18 October, speaking at the congress of the Party of European Socialists, she called for more decisive action to defend democracy and security: “We cannot afford to be content with diminished democracy. Freedom is easy to lose and hard to regain.” In Amsterdam, she also delivered a lecture titled “Between Russia, Ukraine and NATO: the existential struggle of Belarusians to preserve their country,” reiterating Belarus’s European identity: “Belarus is Europe. Belarus is not Russia.” On 19 October, she met members of the Belarusian diaspora and affirmed that public mobilisation and support for Ukraine remain key to future change.

On 14 October, Aliaksandr Lukashenka chaired a meeting on the global situation and the development of Belarus–US relations, attended by the prime minister, the Security Council state secretary, the head of the Presidential Administration, the attorney general and the KGB chairman. Lukashenka spoke of being “ready for a big deal” with Washington if mutual interests are taken into account, while reiterating Belarus’s commitment to alliances with Russia and China and to Eurasian formats. He said Minsk was prepared to take part in any peace process on Ukraine, criticised US and EU sanctions, and described the Nobel Committee as a “politicised structure,” advising Donald Trump not to worry about not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. Observers linked the meeting’s rhetoric and participants list to possible bargaining scenarios with the West, including selective humanitarian steps and talks on aviation sanctions.

Following the meeting, KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel publicly announced an adjustment to Belarus’s foreign policy approach, saying Minsk would “soften its approach, prioritise dialogue and mutual respect” and seek to “reduce tensions while restoring practical contacts.” Analysts interpreted the composition of participants and the rhetoric as consistent with potential “humanitarian” measures – including targeted releases or deportations – as bargaining chips in discussions on partial easing of certain restrictions (for example, in aviation).

Reuters reported on 17 October that, against the backdrop of thawing contacts with Washington, Minsk had also initiated a diplomatic “reconnaissance” toward the EU. Belarusian embassies in Western Europe circulated invitations to meetings with Yurii Ambrazevich (the ambassador to the Holy See, concurrently accredited to France), presented in the letters as an informal coordinator of Belarus’s contacts in Western capitals. According to Reuters, the outreach appeared aimed at reducing Belarus’s political isolation in Europe and signalling Minsk’s readiness to play a role in negotiations on Ukraine and European security. Several European capitals agreed to contacts, but diplomatic assessments were mixed and in many cases sceptical, given continuing repression and Belarus’s dependence on Moscow. Experts noted that the regime’s core objective remains the relaxation of constraints on potash exports and logistics (including access to Baltic ports), while democratic forces urge the EU to maintain sanctions until systemic and irreversible change occurs.

On 16 October Pope Lev XIV received Archbishop Juozas Stanėvskis for a private audience. The Belarusian delegation presented an official invitation to Pope to visit Belarus, proposing to link a visit to the 35th anniversary of the restoration of Catholic structures in 2026. The sides discussed the state of dialogue with the Orthodox Church, property disputes (including the Minsk Red Church and the Calvary Cemetery church), and the idea of a “Belarusian Collegium” in Rome as a spiritual and cultural centre for Belarusians. The pontiff accepted the invitation for consideration and said a final response would be conveyed via the nunciature in Minsk.

On 16 October, at an economic meeting, Lukashenka acknowledged that three of the five key performance indicators of the SER-2025 plan had not been met: GDP growth for the first eight months was below 2%; industrial output stood at about 99.2% year-on-year; and exports were at 97–98% while inventories rose. He linked risks to a contraction in the Russian economy – which accounts for around 67% of Belarusian exports and 56% of imports – and ordered the government to prepare a “realistic but tight” scenario for 2026 with detailed commodity matrices by volumes, markets and FX earnings. The rhetoric and measures point to a shift toward a more mobilisation-style model with increased administrative pressure and a softer domestic price policy. For reference, Decree No. 345 of 30 September 2025 expanded the National Bank’s coordinating powers (including measures to stimulate investment lending and curb consumer credit); budget discussions for 2026 signal a move away from the 2025 populist model toward a deficit but more controllable framework.

The Eurasian Development Bank estimated Belarus’s GDP growth at +1.6% year-on-year for January–September. Consumer demand and investment supported performance: retail turnover rose by 8.2% year-on-year and gross fixed capital formation increased by 15.3% year-on-year. At the same time, industrial output weighed on the economy, with manufacturing down by about 1% year-on-year in January–September amid cooling external demand. Authorities acknowledged sectoral problems and discussed targeted “hands-on” management at individual enterprises.

A second stage of combat readiness checks is underway in one mechanised brigade. Units have marched to training grounds and are conducting live-fire exercises with T-72B tanks, BTR-82A armoured vehicles and small arms. Training reportedly includes exercises in covert redeployment, the use of electronic warfare, and measures to sustain troops’ morale and psychological readiness.

Separately, the Belarusian Railway Workers’ Association reported that bilateral ammunition exchanges with Russia resumed in September – roughly 70 wagons (≈4,500 tonnes) of 152mm and 122mm shells and rocket artillery munitions were sent from Belarus, while about 58 wagons with other categories of ammunition and weaponry arrived in the opposite direction.

On 16 October, Aliaksandr Lukashenka set 18–19 December 2025 as the date for the next session of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA). The organising committee, formed in February and chaired by Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn, includes senior officials and regional heads. Earlier plans to hold the session in April were postponed without explanation. The previous meeting took place in April 2024. Under the amended Constitution, the ABPA must convene at least once a year, though the timeframe within a calendar year remains undefined. Created by the 2022 constitutional referendum, the 1,200-member body is formally headed by Lukashenka.

Iryna Buinevich, director and co-founder of Mia Research, has been in custody for almost two years. According to information which has become available to human rights defenders, a criminal case was opened against her under two charges: high treason and evading payment of insurance premium payments. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, the criminal case is related to a sociological study conducted by the company where Buinevich worked before founding Mia Research. Buinevich was detained in December 2023. At about the same time, Yauhen Krasnianski was detained, who, in August 2025, was sentenced to seven and a half years of imprisonment for conducting a sociological study on COVID-19 in Belarus. According to human rights activists, in August 2025, Iryna was still in Pre-trial Detention Centre No. 1, and many court sessions have been held in her case. There is no official information about whether a verdict in the case has been delivered.

Human rights activists are aware of at least 106 confirmed defendants held in custody in the case of “Belarusian Hajun”. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, the actual number of detainees is much higher. Arrests in the case continue throughout the country, with the majority occurring in the Homel region. Known sentences range from one and a half years of restriction of liberty without referral to an open-type correctional facility up to four years of imprisonment. Human rights defenders are aware of cases of ill-treatment and torture against some of the defendants. According to “Viasna” human rights activist Yana Halahan, those who sent information to the bot of the “Belarusian Hajun” project, should, at least, delete their Telegram account and dispose of the SIM card from which they had sent messages, but ideally should leave Belarus, because “avoiding political persecution in this case is very difficult”. Representatives of the Cyber Partisans anonymous hacktivists community joined this call. “Do not think that if they have not come for you in the first six months, they never will. Leave the country and stay free,” they stated.
Hanna Shpak, an athlete who represented Belarus at the Second Youth Olympic Games in 2014, was convicted of “facilitating extremist activities”. Her charges were probably linked to the case of “Belarusian Hajun”. Her sentence is not known, but it could be up to six years of imprisonment. In the “list of extremists” maintained by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, her status is indicated as “currently serving her sentence”. In recent years, she has worked as a coach and teacher at the Burevestnik Olympic Reserve School in Minsk.

Ihar Brodka, a former lifeguard who recently worked as a driver, was convicted in 2025 on charges of “facilitating extremist activities” and “high treason”. He was sentenced to imprisonment. The verdict, as well as the nature of the charges, is unknown, but they seem to be related to the “Hajun” case. Brodka disappeared from social media and messengers after February 2025. This is likely when he was detained.

Dozens of relatives of political prisoners and those who helped them have been detained over the past week. The first detainees became known on 12 October. According to available information, dozens have been detained. Some of the detainees were released after interrogations, while the fate of others remains unknown. This wave of detentions is similar to the raid of 2024, when about a thousand Belarusians were simultaneously detained for helping political prisoners and their families or receiving assistance.

The Belarusian delegation to the United Nations stated that the fight against crimes against humanity is being politicised and accused the International Criminal Court of exceeding its powers. According to the Belarusian representative office, in a statement made at a meeting of the General Assembly Committee on Legal Affairs, Belarus’ commitment to combating crimes against humanity was confirmed. The statement also emphasised that work on the draft articles on the prevention and punishment of crimes against humanity, prepared by the International Law Commission, should be conducted responsibly. It is necessary to analyse and compare the draft articles with the norms of national legislation and the provisions of international legal documents in this area. “Belarus once again draws attention to the fact that hastily starting negotiations on draft documents without a basic consensus often leads to the opposite result. Such processes either reach an impasse or result in international agreements with a limited participation and questionable effectiveness,” the statement noted.

The KGB added six more people to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities”. There are currently 1,348 people on the list, of whom 651 are Belarusian citizens.

On 15 October, human rights activists recognised nine people as political prisoners. On 16 October, human rights activists recognised eight more people as political prisoners. As of 16 October, the number of political prisoners in Belarus is 1,235.

The Investigative Committee announced on a special Telegram channel the initiation of a “special procedure” against five well-known fighters of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, an association of Belarusians defending Ukraine. Among the accused are former Regiment Commander Pavel Shurmei, Defence Representative in the United Transitional Cabinet and former Deputy Regiment Commander Vadzim Kabanchuk, former Regimental Commander Dzianis Prokharau, as well as Alyaksei Kavalchuk and Alyaksei Nazarau. All are charged under various criminal articles. Kabanchuk and Prokharau face the most charges. They are accused of “creating a criminal organisation”, “an act of terrorism”, “facilitating terrorist activities”, “creating an organisation to carry out terrorist activities”, “organising the activities of a terrorist organisation”, “intentionally causing a vehicle malfunction”, “conspiracy to seize state power”, “calls for sanctions”, “creation of an extremist formation”, “participation in an armed formation on the territory of a foreign state”, and “assistance to extremist activities”. The accused were invited to attend a meeting with the Investigative Committee in Minsk.

On 16 October, a Belarusian woman was detained while returning from Poland to Belarus. Mass interrogations of Ukrainians are also continuing at the border. Phone checks, interrogations, and detentions continue daily at Belarusian checkpoints. Those detained before the trial are placed in a temporary detention facility in the city closest to the border checkpoint, after which they are fined and released, or placed under administrative arrest. It is known that some are being detained on criminal charges. “Some Belarusians have died after being detained at the border and during administrative arrest in a temporary detention facility,” “Viasna” Human Rights Centre noted.

Political prisoner Alyaksandr Kozlyanka, an activist of the anarchist movement, was sentenced to another one and a half years of imprisonment in addition to his six-year sentence. He was convicted for alleged malicious disobedience to the requirements of the administration of the Novopolotsk correctional colony No. 1. Kozlyanka had been repeatedly detained for participating in protest activities. In March 2021, he was detained and charged with organising or actively participating in group actions that grossly violate public order and with creating or participating in a criminal organisation. In September 2022, he was sentenced to six years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and fined 500 basic units (approximately 660 Euro).

Journalist Pavel Dabravolski was accused of high treason. He is being held in the KGB pre-trial detention centre. The charges against Dabravolski are related to his professional activities. He previously worked for Belarusian and foreign media. His last place of work in Belarus was the BelaPAN agency. In November 2021, some workers of this media were recognised as an “extremist formation”. In August 2025, human rights activists recognised Dabravolski as a political prisoner.

In 2020, the German-Swiss human rights organisation Libereco launched the #WeStandBYyou campaign. As part of the initiative, hundreds of European parliamentarians have become symbolic godparents of Belarusian political prisoners. They raise awareness of political prisoners on their social media and during political events, and send letters and parcels to them and their relatives. On 8 October 2025, at a press conference marking the fifth anniversary of the project, #WeStandBYyou representatives stated: “With 1,200 political prisoners still held in Belarusian prisons, the solidarity and support of the people of Belarus remain more vital than ever”. Johannes Schraps, a member of the German parliament, noted that the godparent’s task is not only to write letters to political prisoners, support them and their loved ones, but also to raise awareness of the situation in Belarus – “keeping Belarus, as well as the problem of political prisoners, on the agenda”..

The European Union, within the framework of the EU4Belarus – SALT (Support for Advanced Learning and Training) programme, announced the launch of the second round of a support programme for Belarusians who have suffered from political persecution and lost their income or access to education. The programme will enable completion of training or retraining. It is intended for people over the age of 18. At the time of application, applicants must reside in the EU, the European Economic Community or the Eastern Partnership countries. If a person left Belarus after August 2020, they must prove it was due to repression.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine commented on the arrests in the “Belarusian Hajun case” and stated that the Lukashenka regime was creating an “exchange pool” of detainees. “We regret that in neighbouring Belarus, anything can be deemed a reason to label someone a ‘traitor’ or, in Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s words, a ‘scumbag’ – even a carelessly spoken word in Belarusian. We are convinced that these arbitrary detentions aim at creating an “exchange pool” with which Lukashenka expects to buy indulgences in exchange for innocent people whom he throws into prisons,” the statement said. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry noted that the arrests in the Hajun case confirm the existence of repression in Belarus. It called for increased pressure on Lukashenka and recalled that in 2022, Belarus became an accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut was included in the shortlist of nominees for the Sakharov Prize. “He is a journalist, essayist, and blogger from Polish national minority in Belarus, known for his criticism of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime and a symbolic figure in the fight for freedom and democracy in Belarus,” the press service of the European Parliament said. The winner of the 2025 prize will be announced on 22 October at the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. The award ceremony will take place on 16 December. The Andrei Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought was established in 1988. It is awarded annually by the European Parliament to individuals who have made “an exceptional contribution to the fight for human rights around the globe”.

Remigijus Motuzas, a member of the Lithuanian Seimas, said on LRT that Lithuania is awaiting the arrival of a new group of Belarusian political prisoners. “Another release operation is currently being prepared, and we don’t know how many more people will arrive from Belarus to Lithuania. We will, of course, need to provide for and take care of these individuals,” Motuzas stated.

On 22 October, members of the European Parliament, as well as representatives of the European Council and the European Commission, will discuss the situation in Belarus five years after the 2020 “elections”. Following the discussion, a resolution of the European Parliament will be put to the vote.

Throughout the reporting period, representatives of the Lukashenka regime continued their long-running campaign glorifying the Belarusian dictator and building his personality cult.

In his column for Minskaya Prauda, propagandist Ryhor Azaronak praised Lukashenka as being “merciless towards corruption,” claiming that he eradicates bribery “with a hot iron, [prison] terms, and eternal shame,” and advised adopting China’s practice of executing corrupt officials. “The vertical of power does not end at the top of the Palace of Independence. It is transcendent; it ascends to the heavens. It begins in the cowshed and at the workbench, and ends with God Himself. That is how Lukashenka instructs his officials to serve: ‘Die, but get it done.’ Every working day is an ascent to Golgotha, a service to the people and to the supreme Justice embodied in the state. With such an attitude, one will never offend an ordinary person, because in doing so one would insult the Creator. Belarus is a magnificent ship with a mighty, farsighted captain at the helm. The crew knows better than to joke with him, but knows that he is steering us on the right course. Therefore, they boldly and courageously pull at the masts, the sails, and the oars — each where the Helmsman has placed them,” he wrote.

On 14 October, Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that “Belarus, as Russia’s closest ally in resolving the Ukrainian crisis and in shaping the architecture of regional security, has a specific role to play,” noting that “the Americans have recognised us in this process” and expressing readiness to take part in negotiating an end of the war. “We have made our position clear: peace, peace, and only peace. Ukraine must exist as a sovereign and independent state. We are for ending the war now; otherwise, this independent sovereign state will disappear,” he warned. Lukashenka added that a potential transfer of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine “would only escalate the situation to a nuclear war,” while praising Donald Trump for “not rushing to hand over such deadly weapons or to allow strikes deep into Russia, as President Zelensky hopes.”

Pro-government and pro-Russian commentator Aliaksandr Shpakouski argued that Lukashenka was reminding the United States and Trump of his peace plan, calling the “choice obvious: Lukashenka’s proposals mean de-escalation and a return to normalisation; all other options lead to another round of tensions and a possible nuclear phase.” Pro-regime politician Aleh Haidukevich told Sputnik Belarus that supplying Tomahawks would change nothing on the battlefield since “neither the Ukrainian Armed Forces nor the West have any chance of turning the situation around.” Quoting Lukashenka’s warning that such deliveries could trigger a nuclear conflict, he predicted that Ukraine would face a “powerful Russian response” and advised the Americans to “understand that the blow will reach them too.” He added that if Trump genuinely wants peace, he should “put pressure on the Kyiv regime.”

State media, officials, and propagandists continued to spread the narrative that “the West is fuelling the war in Ukraine.” Belarusian Security Council Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich claimed that “planes loaded with weapons and military equipment, as well as truck convoys — not humanitarian cargo — are moving nonstop from Poland into Ukraine,” and asserted that Europe “is doing everything possible to make the fire of war in Ukraine burn ever more fiercely.” Propagandist Kseniya Lebiadzeva wrote in Minskaya Prauda that “Europe has waited too long for revenge” and that “Brussels is ready to fight without the necessary competence, weapons, or money.” She claimed that the EU plans to “exhaust Russia” on credit, funded by American banks, while the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “dreams of leading the Fourth Reich.” In SB. Belarus Segodnya, pro-government military analyst Aliaksandr Tsishchanka attributed the escalation in Ukraine to U.S. policy, describing it as “a mad yet brilliant American plan to prevent Europe from becoming a global leader in the new century.” According to Tsishchanka, “only the Anglo-Saxons could so effectively and ruthlessly eliminate a competitor through irreversible degradation,” citing von der Leyen’s “statements that there is no threat of a third world war, but that Europe will have to pay for energy independence and security — money that will flow into the U.S. budget under a prior agreement with Donald Trump.”

Both Aliaksandr Lukashenka and his supporters actively commented on decisions made by the U.S. President and related developments. During a meeting on the development of Belarus–U.S. relations, Lukashenka advised Donald Trump “not to worry” about not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, saying that “being among those outcasts is not his place” and that “the opinion of the international community and of ordinary people” matters more than that of a “politicised structure” — his description of the Nobel Committee. Lukashenka added that if he were ever offered such a prize, he would “certainly refuse it.” At the same meeting, he noted that although Belarus had learned to “live and work” under U.S. and EU sanctions, such measures “cause harm and distract from solving many problems.” He expressed regret that the U.S. administration continues to pursue “a policy of promoting certain pseudo-democratic values,” despite earlier statements by President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio about ending funding for “various NGOs and other dirty schemes.”

Echoing Lukashenka’s rhetoric, pro-regime analyst Piotr Piatrouski accused the United States of “playing a double game”: while Trump publicly speaks of cooperation, he “gives the green light to Poland to close the border with Belarus, pursue an anti-Belarus policy of pressure, and stimulate the militarisation of Warsaw and the Baltic states along the eastern flank.” Piatrouski predicted that Washington would “try to restore its influence in Belarusian public life by creating new NGOs and lobbying groups inside and outside the country” and that “pro-Trump NGOs and political forces working in our direction” should be expected to appear. He acknowledged that Belarus is of interest to the United States as a communication channel with Russia, but warned that if the peace process stalls, “this branch of relations between Minsk and Washington will be annulled.”

Regime propagandist Ryhor Azaronak, a key promoter of Lukashenka’s personality cult, compared relations between Minsk and Washington to “a deal with the devil.” He argued that “no matter how much the main peacemaker [Trump] talks about peace, capitalism cannot exist without wars — it feeds on blood and flesh.” According to Azaronak, the “satanic system” of the West first “devours the planet on credit and then destroys those to whom it is indebted.” He described Trump’s goal as “to weaken the union of civilisations and confront each of them separately,” while Lukashenka, allegedly part of “the global camp of good,” would “strike a grand bargain and outsmart the Western devil,” comparing him to the blacksmith Vakula from Gogol’s “The Night Before Christmas”. Azaronak expressed solidarity with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whom he called, like Lukashenka, “the embodiment of humanity’s dream” that “the global glutton, the filthy scum that brings war and injustice to the world, will finally vanish from the planet.”

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Best regards, iSANS team