Belarus Review by iSANS — October 14, 2025 

On 6–7 October, Paris hosted a meeting of the Alliance of Parliamentary Groups for Democratic Belarus, attended by over 100 participants — members of parliaments from 14 countries, representatives of two international organisations, Belarusian experts and activists, and members of the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and French MP, Deputy Secretary General of the European Democratic Party Frédéric Petit addressed the session. A meeting was also held with the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot, who reaffirmed France’s support for democratic change in Belarus. The participants adopted the Paris Declaration and scheduled the next conference for early 2026. The event was organised by the French National Assembly and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. In the public space, the meeting sparked discussion within the Belarusian opposition about the strategy of engagement with the Lukashenka regime, reflecting a divide between advocates of a tougher stance and those favouring a more moderate approach.

On 9 October, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met in Brussels with representatives of European institutions and Belarusian democratic forces. The meeting was organised by the European Commission (DG NEAR / DG ENEST) and the European External Action Service. Discussions focused on priority areas of support – human rights, civil society development, assistance to independent media – as well as on mechanisms of coordination between the EU, democratic forces, and member states for the practical implementation of assistance programmes. The European side presented an overview of existing tools and possible measures to improve their effectiveness. Tsikhanouskaya stressed that strengthening Belarusian society contributes directly to the security of the European Union.

As of 1 October, the Lithuanian authorities downgraded the level of physical protection for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, transferring her security from the State Security Service (responsible for top officials) to the Criminal Police Bureau — the unit that handles witness and victim protection. The decision followed a risk assessment. The security arrangements and associated costs (previously around EUR 1 million per year, including transport and housing) are to be revised. Details have not been disclosed. According to Tsikhanouskaya’s Office, the decision – which came at very short notice – prevented the team from promptly developing new security protocols, leading to the temporary suspension of operations at its Vilnius headquarters and a switch to remote work “until new safety arrangements are established.” Tsikhanouskaya addressed her audience in a video message, assuring supporters that she and her team continue their work despite the challenges. The decision triggered political debate in Lithuania and drew both criticism and official clarification. Former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described the move as damaging to Lithuania’s reputation and values. The Speaker of the Seimas and the Minister of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed that Lithuania’s support for Belarusian democratic forces “continues and is even increasing.”

On 7 October, the ruler of Belarus met in Minsk with the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said. Part of the talks took place in an informal setting “at his home.” Following the meeting, both sides confirmed their intention to exchange embassies in Minsk and Muscat, stating that the ambassadors would become “locomotives” of trade and economic cooperation. Regime-controlled media reported the signing of a memorandum worth about USD 1.4 billion for the construction in Belarus of a new pulp and paper mill, with a projected annual capacity of 800,000 tonnes. Independent experts have questioned the project’s feasibility given the unresolved issues at the existing Svetlahorsk Pulp and Board Plant and uncertainty about potential markets. It was noted that only a memorandum was signed and no investment terms were disclosed. Observers also pointed out Minsk’s interest in Oman as a potential logistics hub for accessing African markets.

On 12 October, on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Tajikistan, Aliaksandr Lukashenka urged Volodymyr Zelensky to “immediately” start negotiations with Russia, claiming that Russian forces “are advancing at the front,” which “could lead to the disappearance of Ukraine as a state.” He also warned about “deranged neighbours” allegedly seeking to “seize” part of Western Ukraine — in the context, referring to Poland — and blamed the Ukrainian side for the lack of progress in peace talks.

On 11 October, the Ministry of Defence announced a comprehensive snap inspection, placing a number of units on higher combat readiness. The process is overseen by State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich. According to Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, the situation on the Belarus–Ukraine border remained unchanged: no troop or equipment movements were observed, while Ukrainian intelligence and border units continued enhanced monitoring.

On 8 October, Valfovich reported to Lukashenka on the results of the joint Belarusian–Russian Zapad-2025 exercises and on incidents involving drones entering Belarusian airspace. According to Minsk, some drones deviated from their routes due to interference from Russian electronic warfare systems, and “adequate measures,” including the deployment of aircraft, were taken in response. According to iSANS estimates, at least 82 kamikaze drones of the “Shahed” type (both Russian and Ukrainian) were recorded in Belarusian airspace in September — a 203% increase compared to August.

Defence Ministry spokesperson Valery Revenka stated that after NATO members Hungary, Turkey, and the United States participated as observers in the Zapad-2025 drills, Belarus now expects to accredit military attachés from several additional countries, including the United Kingdom and Japan. He said the goal is to maintain communication channels, exchange information, and “reduce tensions.” The Defence Ministry declared its readiness “to start talking” in order to avoid reaching “the point of no return.”

24 death sentences were imposed in Belarus from 2015 to 2025, according to the analysis of the campaign “Human Rights Defenders against the Death Penalty in Belarus”, prepared for the International Day against the Death Penalty, which is celebrated on 10 October. According to published data, five death sentences have been handed down in the last five years. In at least two cases in this period, the death penalty has been applied.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre prepared an overview of the human rights situation in Belarus in September 2025. It was noted that the situation remains critical. A ninth political prisoner died in custody. 40 political prisoners pardoned due to the efforts of the United States were forcibly deported to Lithuania, with the exception of Mikalai Statkevich, who refused to leave Belarus and whose whereabouts are unknown. 96 cases of politically motivated repression stemming from criminal and administrative prosecution were recorded during the month. 77 people were recognised as political prisoners. The total number of political prisoners was 1,197, of which 188 were women. At least 180 political prisoners were in a particularly vulnerable situation. The systematic practice of torture and ill-treatment in places of captivity continues, and at least five political prisoners have been held incommunicado for a prolonged period of time. As the statute of limitations on the cases related to the 2020 protests expires, the authorities more often (re)classify them as “mass riots”, a charge which provides for stricter sanctions and a longer statute of limitations.

Interrogations and detentions on the Belarusian border continue, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. KGB, border, and customs officers interrogate both Belarusian citizens and foreigners, demand to see their mobile phones, and are interested in relatives, contacts, and travel destinations. In some cases, such interrogations result in detention. Administrative detainees are placed in temporary detention facilities in the city nearest to the customs for three days before the trial. They are fined or placed under administrative arrest. There are also known cases of criminal prosecution. According to human rights activists, more than a hundred people have been detained after returning to Belarus; the actual number may be much higher. Interrogations take place not only upon entry, but also upon departure from the country.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation continues to put Belarusians on the wanted list. Over the past six months, 1,180 citizens and natives of Belarus have been included in the list; now there are 5,220 people on it. Belarusians are put on the Russian wanted list at the request of Belarus, which means that a person is wanted in both countries and may also be extradited from “friendly countries”.

Syarhei Tsimashenka, a veteran who served in Afghanistan during Soviet invasion of this country, was sentenced to 12 years on political charges. Judging by his social media, Tsimashenka supports Ukraine in the war against Russia, which could be the reason for the charges brought against him. He suddenly disappeared from all social networks at the end of 2024, was arrested, and placed in pre-trial detention centre. Tsimashenka was convicted on 10 September on four charges: participation in protests, high treason, participation in an extremist formation, and participation in a terrorist organisation. He was sentenced to 12 years of imprisonment.

On 7 October, the Minsk City Court sentenced Mikalai Katsalapau, co-founder of the Wargaming company, to 13 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and a fine of 2.1 million Belarusian rubles (approximately 618,000 USD) in absentia. He was found guilty of financing “extremist” activities, repeated financing of “extremist” activities, and financing “terrorist” activities. In 2023, the KGB included him in the list of persons involved in “terrorist activities”. Propagandists claimed that he had made “dozens of transfers” of “hundreds of thousands of dollars” in cryptocurrency to various “extremist” initiatives.

Political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut was placed in a cell-type room for six months, his wife Aksana Poczobut wrote on social media. “The first letter, in which Andrzej tells how he had been put to a cell-type room, did not reach me. He was sentenced to a cell-type room for six months for refusing to do work that cannot be done,” she wrote. During the medical examination before being sent to a cell-type room, Poczobut had a cardiac arrhythmia and a blood pressure of 190/140. “Now, when his blood pressure is measured, Andrzej is not shown the results,” Aksana Poczobut noted.

The Vitsebsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office has sent a criminal case against the Honest People initiative to the regional court. The case was investigated within the framework of a special procedure (in absentia). The Honest People initiative was created in 2020 to counter fraud in the presidential election. It was later recognised as an “extremist formation”. Its four participants were charged with discrediting the state, inciting social hatred and discord, insulting and slandering Lukashenka, and calling for sanctions against the Republic of Belarus. The names of those accused have not been disclosed by the prosecutor’s office. In August 2025, the Investigative Committee notified that it was launching special proceedings against Alena Zhyvaglod, Zaryna Sarokina, Aleh Davydchyk, and Tsimafey Malakhouski. Prior to that, they were included in the list of “extremist formations” as related to the initiative.

According to the “Belyurobespiechenie” website, auction for 19 paintings from the personal collection of Viktar Babaryka, political prisoner, banker, and public figure, presidential candidate in 2020, was held on 8 October. There were those willing to buy 14 of the paintings — the cheapest ones.

On 8 October, Belarusian human rights activists recognised 12 more people as political prisoners, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reports. Some of them were convicted under the charge of group actions violating public order, and some under the charge of mass riots. On 10 October, 18 more people were recognised as political prisoners in Belarus. As of this date, 1,222 people have the status of political prisoners.

Maryja Kalesnikava’s family received her first letter in two and a half years. This was reported on the Instagram page of Kalesnikava. In the letter, Maryja recalled her childhood and family travels. Six months ago, Kalesnikava’s family received a short note from her. “There were literally a couple of lines where Maryja sent greetings to everyone, and said that she was doing well,” said Maryja’s sister, Tatsiana Khomich. Otherwise, the relatives received only information from former prisoners who served their sentences in the same colony as Maryja. In recent years, there has been critically little information about her. 7 September 2025 marked the fifth anniversary of Maryja Kalesnikava’s detention.

Ales Bialiatski, the founder of the “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, is currently the only Nobel laureate in the world who is in prison. Three years ago, the Nobel Committee awarded him the Peace Prize for his efforts to protect the fundamental rights of citizens in Belarus. In March 2023, he was sentenced to ten years of imprisonment. This is the fifth year that Ales Bialiatski has been held in custody. This is not the first experience of imprisonment for Bialiatski – in 2011, he was sentenced to four and a half years of imprisonment for his human rights work. Bialiatski is held in colony No. 9 in Horki, which is considered to be one of the most severe in Belarus. From the very beginning of his imprisonment, Ales Bialiatski has faced constant pressure for allegedly violating internal regulations. Under this pretext, the colony administration transferred him to a cell-type room for six months. Little is known about the conditions of Bialiatski’s detention. It became known from those who were released that Ales underwent surgery on his leg in June of this year.

On 10 October, the Interior Ministry added 27 more names to the “list of Belarusian citizens, foreign citizens, or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among others, 19 people who were convicted of promoting extremism, as well as five people who were convicted of organising and actively participating in actions that grossly violate public order, but released from responsibility due to the expiration of the statute of limitations under this charge, were added to the list. There are 5,848 people on the list now.

A second shelter for Belarusian political prisoners will be opened in Warsaw. On 10 October, representatives of the Warsaw City Hall met with the organisers of the currently existing shelter and discussed the allocation of a second building for this purpose. According to the Belarusian activists, the Mayor’s Office has agreed in principle to allocate a building and will now look for suitable premises that will be provided free of charge or on preferential payment terms. During the work of the shelter, more than 400 Belarusian political prisoners have received free accommodation, food, and assistance with paperwork.

During the reviewed period, representatives of the Lukashenka regime and state-controlled media repeatedly raised the topic of the “militarisation of Europe.” Many of them promoted a narrative suggesting that European politicians continue to use the “Russian threat” as a pretext to justify the deteriorating living standards of their populations and to continue “robbing the people.”

Pro-regime politician Aleh Haidukevich told Sputnik Belarus that “Europe, Brussels, the United Kingdom, and the globalists are doing everything possible to prolong the conflict in order to stay in power.” According to him, “They are preparing Europe for war, taking away rights, freedoms, and democracy under the pretext of alleged preparations for war. If peace were to come, they would be swept from power — in Germany, in France where Macron rules, and in other European countries, including Poland.”

Pro-regime military commentator Aliaksandr Alesin stated in an interview with the state news agency BelTA that EU politicians have lost their levers of influence over society and can no longer provide citizens with adequate social benefits. He claimed their only remaining tool is “to inflate military hysteria, to turn people into a herd and keep them under control,” asserting that Europeans are susceptible to this because “there is a medical fact that hysteria can spread among broad segments of the population.”

Columnist Yury Kutyrau of Minskaya Pravda expanded on this theme, alleging that Europe is experiencing “real dronophobia” and predicting that “special squads for drone catching” would soon appear. He wrote that “the economy is stalling — because of the Russian threat; the migration crisis — also Russia’s fault; drones flew over — what else did you expect? Instead of a constructive dialogue or an attempt to understand the situation, we get farce. Europe is building a ‘drone wall,’ politicians compete to promise to shoot down everything that flies, and experts seriously discuss supposed threats from Russia. A new European psychosis is in full swing — and apparently, this is only the beginning.”

At the same time, regime-affiliated commentators began promoting the idea that Europe itself will become the instigator of the next major war. Speaking on Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov’s talk show, deputy Vadzim Hihin claimed that “in history, there has never been a transition from one system of international relations to another without a major war.”

Propagandist Ryhor Azaronak was far more explicit: “There will be a world war. It cannot be avoided. Perhaps nuclear, perhaps not — most likely nuclear. The eternal source of war is stinking Europe. They are marching towards it with seven-league strides. The battlefield has already been chosen — the Baltic Sea. Hence, provocation after provocation. For now, unfortunately, we are reacting situationally. But we must seize the initiative. Europe is highly dependent; it has no resources. And since they themselves wanted to return to their Reich state, we must help them — let them remember what plague, smallpox, famine, and the Huns are. But war will come anyway. There have never been other ways in history for one system to replace another.”

High-ranking officials and propagandists continued expressing “sympathy” for “ordinary Ukrainians” while criticising Ukraine’s leadership and promoting narratives about the “three brotherly peoples.” On 12 October, on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Tajikistan, Aliaksandr Lukashenka told Russian journalists that Volodymyr Zelensky must urgently make decisions necessary for a peaceful settlement to prevent the “disappearance of Ukraine as a state,” since Russia “is advancing at the front.” He also warned that “deranged neighbours” allegedly want to “cut off” part of Western Ukraine. Lukashenka declared that “happiness will not come to him [Zelensky] from anyone except the Slavic states,” urging him “to sit down and negotiate.”

Military commentator Aliaksandr Alesin predicted that if the war continues, the losses in Ukraine could become so severe that “there will be no one left to be sent to the trenches.” He claimed that these trends could be “frozen” through cooperation with Russia and Belarus. Alesin also warned that the situation in Ukraine could become “a detonator not only for major European troubles but for a world war,” especially given the “rhetoric and position” of the EU and NATO leadership.

Propagandists continued contributing to the cultivation of Lukashenka’s personality cult. In his programme “Propaganda” on the state-owned ONT channel, presenter Ihar Tur — who in late September argued that “the most effective form of government for the Slavs is what is called authoritarianism and dictatorship” — spoke about the “crisis of leadership and of democracy itself.” According to him, some countries had previously oriented themselves toward Washington, but “the United States has ceased to be the ‘main power’ for the rest of the world,” as China, Russia, India, Iran, and other strong states no longer recognise “the supremacy of the stars-and-stripes flag.” Tur declared that the world is now entering “an era of centralisation of power at all levels” and emphasised that “in Belarus, where a system of hierarchical control has long been built across all spheres, this has been the case for a long time.”

Azaronak asserted that within the “global majority,” Lukashenka is “one of the first among equals,” claiming that Belarus is regarded as “an equal force” and that observers “see that power here will not change, will not collapse, and will not shift to the West because of one servile tweet from Trump.” Commenting on the visit of Oman’s ruler to Belarus, Azaronak added: “The mighty Sultan will not go to stinking Poland, to rabid Baltic states, or to any country of filthy democracy. Monarchs are interested in a long-term approach. They need to see strength — strength embodied in a man. They see that strength in Aliaksandr Lukashenka.”

Several state media journalists published materials aimed at “exposing” what they described as the true intentions of the US president. Minskaya Pravda columnist Yury Uvarau — a habitual critic of Donald Trump — claimed that Trump had “dropped all masks” and was now threatening Russia with “Tomahawks.” Citing alleged “insider information from Warsaw,” Uvarau asserted that missiles had already been secretly transferred from Polish territory, proposing that Trump should receive “first place in the competition of Russophobes, liars, and hypocrites.”

Uvarau also noted that Trump had repeatedly threatened to end funding for the “Kyiv regime” because of its corruption but had not done so, allegedly because any investigation would expose “other crimes” — including “the fostering of neo-Nazism” and “violations of the rights of the Russian-speaking majority.” He argued that Trump was reluctant to “shed light on these atrocities” because they were the result of “direct orders from Washington and London.”

Propagandist Ryhor Azaronak, meanwhile, focused on the alleged relationship between Trump and Lukashenka. “We are now experiencing the peak of geopolitical power,” he declared. “The importance of Belarus — and personally of Aliaksandr Lukashenka — for global stability, and especially for our region, is recognised by all. Trump, the arrogant cowboy, humiliates the old states of Europe, yet he flatters Lukashenka — calling him powerful, asking for favors, seeking his help. It is a unique situation: the Americans need us far more than we need them. We have learned to do everything under sanctions. We can settle payments, our currencies are overflowing — we could feed cows with dollars. We can deliver goods anywhere in the world. We do not really need them, but they — and Trump personally — need us desperately.”

Against the backdrop of another wave of protests in Georgia, regime-affiliated media amplified Kremlin narratives suggesting that the EU still hopes to stage a “Maidan” in the country to overthrow its leadership. Anton Papou of SB. Belarus Segodnya claimed that “Brussels wants Georgia to join an anti-Russian alliance and even to start an open conflict with Moscow,” while praising the ruling Georgian Dream party for “acting in the national interest” and “resisting Western pressure.” He added that “Europeans are not giving up and keep trying to break the resistance of nationally oriented forces to bring the pro-Western opposition to power.”

Vadzim Hihin argued that “current Georgian politicians do not suit the West, which needs figures of the Macron, Scholz, or Merz type — bland, accountable, and easy to control.” Pro-regime analyst Aliaksandr Shpakouski called on the Georgian authorities to prosecute “organisers of the riots and rank-and-file militants,” warning that “if they limit themselves to half-measures, another coup attempt will follow.”

Note from the editors: We do not provide links to publications in official and propagandistic sources belonging to the Lukashenka regime or affiliated with the regime. If you are interested in obtaining such a link for research or investigation purposes, please contact us at info@isans.org

Best regards, iSANS team