- MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
- PROPAGANDA
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 38)
A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).
Russian drones continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus. Thus, on October 7, four drones of Shahed-136/131 type flew into Belarus. On October 8, a reconnaissance drone flew into Belarus. And on October 11, two Shahed-136/131. The Armed Forces of Belarus were not used to intercept all these drones. It is known that some of the drones subsequently flew to Ukraine.
On October 7, two Yak-130 combat training jets of the 116th Assault Aviation Base of the Belarusian Armed Forces flew from the airfield Babrujsk to the permanent airfield in Lida. The planes had been in Babrujsk for almost a month as part of “strengthening border protection with Ukraine”.
On October 8, Interior Minister Ivan Kubrakou announced that 22 “volunteer” units have been created in the Interior Ministry system, staffed by reservists who previously served in special units. In case of a need, reservists will be able to arrive at the units within a few hours, where the necessary equipment and weapons have already been prepared for them.
The combat readiness check of the units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus, which began on September 30, has continued. On October 8, it was reported that operational-tactical exercises were held as part of the inspection. During the exercise, the issues of countering the enemy aircraft and repulsion of air strikes were worked out. In addition, more than 10 aviation guidance points staffed by reservists were deployed on the territory of Belarus.
From October 8 to 11, the annual mobilization readiness classes were held under the leadership of the chairpersons of regional executive committees. The exercises were aimed at improving the level of preparation and coherence of territorial defense authorities for the formation of territorial troops.
On October 9, a fighter-interceptor MiG-31K of the Russian Air Force flew from Russia to Machulishchi airfield. On October 10, a second MiG-31K flew to Belarus. On the same day, both aircraft flew from the airfield Machulishchi in the southern direction. Subsequently, both MiG-31Ks flew to Russia. No flights of this type of aircraft have been recorded in Belarus since April 6, 2023.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
On October 7, Norway joined the EU and imposed new sanctions against Belarus. Norway’s decision to impose sanctions aligns with the EU’s sanctions package that was adopted on June 29, 2024. According to the statement of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the sanctions are comprehensive, targeting several sectors of the Belarusian economy, including trade, the services sector, and transport. Moreover, the sanctions will help prevent circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions. Some Norwegian sanction measures introduced against Russia apply to Belarus as well.
On October 9, the Spokesperson and Head of the Public Affairs Unit at the International Criminal Court (ICC) Fadi El Abdallah stated that the ICC may hold Belarus accountable for its role in Russia’s deportation of Ukrainian children, if there is evidence, even though the country is not a member of the ICC. The Belarusian National Anti-Crisis Management led by Pavel Latushka, together with other organizations, continues to collect materials for the ICC proving the Lukashenka regime’s involvement in illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and/or Belarus.
On October 10, commenting on the results of the visa-scandal investigation, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radoslaw Sikorski said “he is shocked” by many procedural violations. The Polish Supreme Audit Office recently found nearly 50 procedural violations during the ongoing investigation. Among other violations, the report highlights gaps in the visa issuance system for students and a lack of a legal framework for the Polish Business Harbour program, which facilitated entry into Poland for specialists from Eastern Europe, especially for Belarusians after August 2020. Moreover, the report identified that MFA officials from the former government of Poland used pressure against consuls to increase the number of visas issued. In 2018-2023, Poland issued over 6 million visas, including 3.8 million work visas. Of these, more than half were received by citizens of Ukraine, and more than a quarter were received by citizens of Belarus. In third place, with almost 6% of all visas received, are Russian citizens.
During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was on a working visit in Norway, where she met with the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs and discussed the situation of political prisoners in Belarus, support for the referral of Lithuania against the Lukashenka regime in the ICC, support programs for civil society, media and culture as well as the International Humanitarian Fund. Also, during her visit, Tsikhanouskaya held meetings at the Norwegian Parliament (Storting) and delivered a speech during a seminar on political prisoners in Europe. After her visit to Norway, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the former Polish Ambassador to Belarus who currently serves as Foreign Ministry’s Plenipotentiary for cooperation with the democratic forces of Belarus, Artur Michalski, in Vilnius. During the meeting, Tsikhanouskaya awarded Ambassador Michalski a medal from the United Transitional Cabinet for “unwavering support and genuine friendship”.
HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
It became known that in August, a political prisoner, a citizen of Belarus and the United States, Yury Zyankovich, was sentenced to two more years of imprisonment on charges of malicious disobedience to the administration of a correctional institution. Zyankovich was previously found guilty of conspiracy to seize state power unconstitutionally, creating an extremist formation, publicly calling for the seizure of power, and inciting discord. He was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment. In September, it became known that he had applied for a pardon. Human rights activists report that Zyankovich is still kept in the KGB detention center.
Maryja Kalesnikava has been held in incommunicado detention for 600 days. During this period, her relatives, as well as her lawyers, have had no contact with her. “In 600 days, you can learn a new language up to B2 level, master a new profession, write a book, learn to play a new musical instrument, or even prepare for a marathon. 600 days is a huge opportunity for personal and professional growth. Maryja Kalesnikava is deprived of all this just because she believes in freedom, loves Belarus and Belarusians, and helped us all believe in ourselves,” said Viktar Babaryka’s Telegram channel post.
The Investigative Committee has seized the house of Aliaksei Dzikavitski, Acting Director of the Belsat TV channel. It is not known within the frame of which criminal case the property was seized.
The cottage of journalist and columnist Hanna Zlatkouskaya, who left Belarus in November 2020, was seized by the Investigative Committee. Her mother’s apartment was searched on October 8. According to the Belarusian Association of Journalists, a criminal case has been opened against Hanna. It is not yet known what she is being charged with and what is the essence of the charges.
The Investigative Committee has launched a special procedure investigation against Pavel Daneyka, economist and administrative director of BEROC. He was charged with organization of entrepreneurial activities carried out without a license or special permission, conspiracy or other actions aimed at overthrowing state power, and participation in an extremist formation.
On October 7, it became known that the city court of Baranavichy and Baranavichy District Court decided to include the TG-Channel of the Russian Human Rights Center “Memorial” in the list of extremist materials. Some days later, the Human Rights Center “Viasna” announced that the International Committee on Investigation of Torture in Belarus was included in the list of “extremist formations.”
At least 66 persons have been convicted in politically motivated criminal cases after returning from abroad, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. It is emphasized that the real number of such cases may be higher. Of these 66 persons, at least 36 are currently in custody. The longest sentence, 11 years of imprisonment, was imposed on Yaraslav Sakovich, who returned to Belarus in 2021 because of his sick parents. It is also known that some detainees are being sent to a psychiatric hospital for compulsory treatment. This, in particular, happened to Neli Alfiorava, who was convicted of “insulting a representative of the authorities.”
In October, the Investigative Committee launched a new major case against the opposition members. There are 45 persons on the list of suspects. They were accused of trying to develop a plan to disrupt the elections in Belarus in the year 2025. The case was initiated because of the “Platform 2025”, a document adopted by the Belarusian democratic forces at the New Belarus conference in Vilnius in August. It outlined the main goals for the upcoming election campaign. Among them are the non-recognition by the world community of the “presidential elections”, work on the release of political prisoners, as well as strengthening the work with current civil servants who support the democratic future of the country. The Investigative Committee regarded this as “the consolidation of extremists to coordinate actions during the electoral campaign in the Republic of Belarus.” They were charged with a conspiracy, or other actions committed to seize state power.
Security forces are preparing to conduct preventive searches and detentions before the presidential elections in 2025, Nasha Nava media reports citing sources in two cities of the country. Relevant meetings are already being held by the regional authorities, where measures are being discussed on how to hold presidential elections “without the slightest incident.” As part of the so-called “preparation” for the elections, a list of institutions and factories was created where demonstrative phone checks and detentions at workplaces will take place. The authorities have allegedly already compiled two lists of persons who are subject to “preventive” searches and detentions. Those who have been convicted under administrative or criminal charges were included in one of these lists. Those who were not prosecuted for political reasons, but are considered “potentially disloyal, politically active” are on the second list. Visits to persons from the first list will begin in the fall. However, the most intense repressions are planned for December-January, closer to the voting day.
Vitsebsk activist Aliaksei Tamilau, who was severely beaten in a temporary detention facility last year, died at the age of 52. He was not a member of opposition parties or movements but was not indifferent to the life of Belarus and his hometown and was a lover of his native language and culture. In March 2023, Aliaksei Tamilau was arrested during a police raid conducted by Vitsebsk security forces. Police found subscriptions to “extremist” resources in his phone. The court found him guilty of distributing, manufacturing, storing, and transporting information products containing calls for extremist activities or promoting such activities and punished him with administrative arrest. While serving his arrest, Aliaksei was severely beaten by guards. He was admitted to the intensive care unit with a pneumothorax, broken ribs, and a fractured knee. The police then began to threaten him that they would open a criminal case against him if he decided to file a complaint about the beating. After the injuries, Aliaksei’s health never fully recovered.
Priest-Canon Yury Barauneu, priest of the parish of the Heart of Jesus in Krulevshchina, was sentenced to 10 days of administrative arrest on charges of possession of extremist materials. He was detained on October 7. Since 2020, 31 priests have been subjected to administrative arrests, including 13 from the Vitsebsk Diocese. After the 2020 presidential elections, relations between the state and the Catholic church in Belarus became strained because many Catholic hierarchs and believers openly opposed the wave of violence and repression that followed the mass protests. Some priests have been detained, tried, and arrested for political reasons, some were forced to leave Belarus
On October 9, a side event “New illegal instruments of persecution of political opponents by the Lukashenka regime: incommunicado detention, repeated convictions, trials in absentia and other forms of transborder repression” was held by the International Strategic Action Network for Security at the OSCE Warsaw Human Dimension Conference. The evidence of the application by the Lukashenka regime of illegal instruments of persecution of its political opponents, including incommunicado detention of political prisoners, extrajudicial execution resulting from torture and non-provision of medical services, repeated convictions aimed at keeping political prisoners in jail indefinitely, holding trials in absentia of exiled opponents of the regime and confiscation of their property, persecution of relatives of exiled critics of the regime, and the use of other forms of transborder repression was presented. Speakers discussed recommendations for international action, including ways to ensure the release of political prisoners and holding the perpetrators accountable.
On October 11, the appointment of the new UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus was announced at the 57th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Nils Mužnieks, former Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe, and former Head of the Amnesty International’s European Institutions Office, became the successor of Anais Marin. On this occasion, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued a statement congratulating the new Special Rapporteur and outlining the significance of this post in contributing to protecting the rights of Belarusians, who have suffered from political repression. Also, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces thanked Anais Marin, who “brought global awareness to the systemic violations occurring daily in Belarus.”
Nine more persons were recognized as political prisoners. These are Dzyanis Andrashchuk, Hanna Vasilyuk, Raman Parfenau, Mikalai Pratasevich, Artsyom Basalai, Valery Raukouski, Anastasia Ilnitskaya, Aliaksandr Pratasyuk and Aliaksei Martynau. Belarusian human rights activists consider their cases to be politically motivated and demand their release. The total number of political prisoners in Belarus is almost 1300 people.
At least 30 representatives of the LGBTQ community were detained in Belarus in August-September. Some were released after interrogation or received fines and were able to leave Belarus, while others are still in custody. According to TG House Belarus, an organization that protects the rights and interests of transgender people, the detainees were most often accused of petty hooliganism and subscribing to so-called “extremist” resources. In at least two cases, charges of the production and distribution of pornographic materials were applied. According to Alisa Sarmant, coordinator of TG House Belarus, detentions of representatives of the LGBTQ community took place in at least seven cities, persons were arrested both at home and in public places. During the detention, they were subjected to physical and psychological violence based on their identity. Mass detention may be related to the upcoming presidential elections; “the authorities are starting to carry out sweeps so that everyone gets scared, hides or runs.” Similarly, Belarus can prepare the ground for the adoption of a law banning the so-called “LGBT propaganda”. Back in February 2024, the Prosecutor General’s Office prepared a bill providing, among other things, administrative responsibility for “propaganda of non-traditional family relations.” In November-December, the document will be, presumably, submitted to parliament.
The former office of political prisoner Eduard Babaryka was auctioned off. Earlier, the property was seized by the decision of the investigative authorities. Only two persons participated in the auction. In the summer, a motorcycle and a car of Eduard Babaryka were sold at auction. Eduard Babaryka was detained along with his father, Viktar Babaryka, Viktar Babaryka, banker and public figure, presidential candidate in 2020. Eduard was held in the KGB detention center, and the charges against him were changed several times. On July 5, 2023, he was sentenced to eight years of imprisonment. He was also fined 185 thousand rubles (around 52 thousand EUR). In July of this year, Eduard Babaryka was sentenced to two more years of imprisonment on charges of disobeying the administration of a correctional institution.
Tatsiana Karatkevich, a presidential candidate in the 2015 elections, was sentenced to 15 days of arrest under administrative charges. The formal reason was the presence on her social networks of some “forbidden” photos dated 2020. Karatkevich was not detained before the trial but was released home after the protocol was drawn up. However, the court sentenced her to 15 days of arrest. In 2015, Tatsiana Karatkevich participated in the presidential elections as the leader of the “Tell the Truth” movement. In 2020, she headed the initiative group of presidential candidate Andrei Dzmitryjeu. After the elections, she retired from political activity, focusing on social assistance to persons with disabilities.
The new Chair of the European Parliament’s delegation on relations with Belarus, Małgorzata Gosiewska, in her welcoming speech, confirmed the continuity of the position of the delegation formed by the new composition of MEPs. “Amidst Russia’s attempts at undermining the sovereignty of Belarus by turning it into its satellite state, we remain committed to continue working tirelessly with the United Transitional Cabinet led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Coordination Council towards achieving the goal of building a democratic, sovereign, inclusive and prosperous Belarus. The legitimate aspirations of the people of Belarus for the European future of their homeland shall guide the Delegation activities in this new legislative term,” she stated
In the first nine months of 2024, 2,900 Belarusian citizens applied for international protection in Poland. Last year, Belarusian citizens received more than 280 thousand first residence permits in EU countries. The majority of them, more than 255.5 thousand, settled in Poland.
On October 12, at a meeting of the ruling Civic Coalition party, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Poland would temporarily ban refugees from seeking asylum in the country after crossing the border with neighboring Belarus. Anticipating Brussels’ objections to the legality of this step, he said that he would demand recognition of this decision in Europe. “The EU rules on the reception of refugees are actively used by Belarus and Russia against the very essence of these rules.” According to Donald Tusk, in recent years tens of thousands of potential immigrants, many of whom came from the Middle East and Africa, have tried to cross the border with Poland through Belarus illegally. “The most important thing today in Poland, in Europe, and in the world is to give a good, honest, decent, but at the same time tough response to calls and fears that arise in connection with mass migration, as well as the policies of hostile countries that organize this illegal migration,» he stressed.
PROPAGANDA
The Lukashenka-controlled party “Belaya Rus” has collected about 60 tons of humanitarian aid for the residents of the Kursk region of Russia, reports CTV regarding the party leader and MP Aleh Ramanau. He expressed confidence that his party “and in general the citizens of Belarus, Belarusian civil society will be able to provide substantial assistance to the Russian brothers who suffered from the Ukrainian aggression.” The head of Belaya Rus preferred not to mention that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, which started on August 6, was one of Kyiv’s responses to the Kremlin’s full-scale war against the Ukrainian people. It is noteworthy that the pro-government propagandists did not organize the collection and delivery of humanitarian aid to the residents of Ukraine.
On October 8, the Investigative Committee of Belarus announced the opening of a criminal case against 22 people who “joined the activities of Tsikhanouskaya and her supporters to seize state power in Belarus by unconstitutional means”, as well as the “identification” of 23 people who “participated in an extremist formation.” Yellow Leaks, a TG-channel associated with the security forces, announced a new wave of confiscation of property from suspects: “Wait for pictures and videos of the doors being broken open with a bolt cutter and sealed.”
On October 8, a comprehensive training session with law enforcers, who, among other things, trained to disperse protests, was held at the Volovshchyna training ground. It was attended by Aliaksandr Valfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council, who said that “political methods of pressure and economic sanctions” were used against Belarus: “A real hybrid, information war has been unleashed with attempts to intimidate our population that a war will be unleashed against us, that some gangs will enter our territory on the model of what happened on the territory of Russia, that the government will be overthrown, allegedly, according to the West, democracy will be restored, and the system will be changed.” He warned that if someone encroaches on the territorial integrity of Belarus, then on Lukashenka’s signal, the heads of the power bloc will give a command and within a few hours “those who have excellent skills and methods of combat operations” will arrive at the active units, bypassing the military recruitment offices.
Propagandist Ryhor Azaronak was invited to work at Belarusfilm as a director of the documentary studio “Chronicle,” Euroradio reports citing sources in the studio. According to their information, Azaronak may realize two projects, dedicated to the events of 2020. The propagandist has repeatedly resented that Belarusfilm does not make films about the suppression of protests after the last presidential election.
On October 8, before the meeting of CIS heads of state in Moscow, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said that even if he had his nuclear weapons, he would not decide on their use alone: “Look, even if we, like North Korea, had weapons produced and created at home, never in a lifetime would any country use them on its own without consulting its allies. Much less of us without consulting the Russian Federation.” Also because in the doctrine of the Russian Federation, a strike by other states against Belarus with the use of non-nuclear weapons can be used as a pretext for the use of nuclear weapons, Lukashenka was asked what he considers “red lines”. The answer was: “The border is a state border. We have already said it clearly and definitely. If someone crosses our state border, we will do everything to use all the weapons that Belarus has.” Lukashenka expressed confidence that Ukraine was not considering the option of military action against Belarus: “This is just the usual yakking. And none of the serious people, even at the level of President Zelensky, is thinking about going into Belarus. This is a headache, a very serious one, which will lead to the collapse of the Kyiv authorities in general in military terms”. At the summit, Lukashenka also proposed to restore the CIS in its former composition: “It would be very good if Georgia returned to our family. Moldova resumed its full participation. The Ukrainian authorities would come to their senses to restore normal life, which we will have to participate in. I am sure that this will happen. It is just a matter of time. So, let’s think how we can use the potential of regional integration more effectively”. He believes that the West is still “struggling with the ghost of the USSR,” which speaks of “the strength of the historical unity of our peoples, which still worries Washington and Brussels,” and he urged to “cherish” what we have.
On October 9, Vladimir Putin presented Lukashenka with the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, which is the highest state award in the Russian Federation. Lukashenka’s press service reported that the order bears the words: “For faith and loyalty.” According to Putin, Lukashenka received this award “for exceptional services” in strengthening ties with Russia. The Belarusian dictator, in turn, noted that he considered the award as “a recognition of the merits of the entire Belarusian people, consistently strengthening the unity with brotherly Russia”, and promised that for Belarus “Russia has always been and will always be more than a neighboring state”. On October 10, MP Maryna Liancheuskaya suggested awarding Lukashenka the title of a Hero of Belarus. She noted that he received the Russian order for “not just colossal, but simply cosmic” contribution to rapprochement with Russia, but “he still doesn’t have the title of a Hero of Belarus. She believes that Lukashenka has long deserved this title and suggests “correcting the historical injustice. Liancheuskaya also called Lukashenka “the most popular and the most modest president.”
The so-called “Marathon of Unity”, which will be held in 14 cities of Belarus, started on October 11 in Maladzechna. A two-day program is planned in each city, ending with a “bright and large-scale” concert. Several ministries, executive committees, BelTA, Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus, BRSM (Belarusian Republican Youth Union), Belteleradiocompany, National Library, etc. are involved in the preparation and implementation of the action. The marathon is a key element of Lukashenka’s election campaign, organized at public expense. Lukashenka’s youngest son Mikalai appeared at the concert in Maladzechna where he played the piano. Earlier, he performed a similar number in Minsk on September 17 on the so-called “day of national unity.” It is not excluded that he will also appear on the stages of other cities within the framework of this action.
On October 13, in his speech on the Day of Culture Workers, Anatol Markevich, head of the Ministry of Culture, outlined the goals and tasks of his subordinates: “Culture is the sphere which is able to give a worthy response to anti-patriotic and immoral challenges and threats. There are more than 50 thousand of us [cultural workers of Belarus]. It’s a whole army. And today we are all fighters of the cultural front, mobilized for the spiritual battle for Belarus.” According to the minister, the cultural community of the country “has been cleansed of destructive elements,” probably referring to the mass dismissals of cultural workers, repressions, closure of several institutions, and introduction of censorship.
iSANS team