Belarus Review by iSANS — November 24, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 17 and 23 November at least five Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were detected operating in Belarusian airspace. No crashes or interceptions were reported. All flights occurred during the night of 19 November, coinciding with a large-scale Russian strike on Ukrainian territory. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia employed 476 UAVs of various types in that attack.

Belarus’s Defence Ministry reported on 20 November that tactical air-defence exercises were conducted at the Domanava training ground with units of the North-Western Operational Command. According to the report, crews of the “Strela-10” and “Tunguska” systems of the 120th Mechanised Brigade demonstrated high accuracy when engaging simulated aerial targets, while personnel of the 740th Air-Defence Missile Regiment practised engagements using the “Osa” system. The main objective of the drills was counter-UAV warfare. “We see that unmanned aerial vehicles have come to the forefront of modern armed struggle. […] Units must be protected against these enemy air-attack assets,” said Aliaksandr Bas, Commander of the North-Western Operational Command.

At the Dubai Airshow on 19 November, Director of Russian state agency for arms trade Rosoboronexport General Aleksandr Mikheev told RIA Novosti that Russia intends to build the Su-75 fifth-generation light fighter jointly with Belarus. No additional details were provided.

On 20 November, a ceremonial event marking Artillery and Missile Forces Day took place in Minsk. Belarusian General Staff Chief Pavel Muraveika announced plans for continued rearmament and the development of the domestic defence industry: “We will continue receiving new missile and artillery systems. We will finally complete the creation of our own artillery fire-control complex and deliver it to our units. We plan to procure new artillery systems, and our defence-industrial complex has already begun producing domestic munitions for rocket and tube artillery,” he said.

On 22 November, more than 10,000 conscripts took the military oath across Belarusian Armed Forces units. The State Border Committee reported that around 1,600 recruits drafted into the border guard service also took the oath the same day. A notable development occurred in Babruisk, where – for the first time within the Special Operations Forces – recruits of the 147th Air-Defence Missile Regiment (transferred from the Ground Forces in July 2025) and the newly formed 92nd Rocket Artillery Regiment took the oath. Speaking to the media, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin reiterated that Belarus faces no mobilisation shortages: “For several years, we have had no issues with the conscription pool. We can select the best candidates. Interest in contract service has increased, and in this context we are tightening requirements, especially for those wishing to serve on contract,” the minister said.

During the swearing-in ceremony of new personnel of the 120th Mechanised Brigade on 22 November, two Volat V-2 armoured personnel carriers produced by the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant were displayed. The vehicles (MZKT-690003-021) are equipped with the “Adunok-BM30.2” remotely operated combat module. The APC was reported to have been accepted into service in May 2025. The appearance of the vehicles suggests that the first serial V-2 APCs have begun entering the troops. At the MILEX-2025 exhibition, the plant’s director announced that “a certain number” of V-2 APCs would be delivered to the Armed Forces by the end of the year. The 120th Brigade comprises three mechanised battalions; one of them (the 339th) was re-equipped with Russian BTR-82A APCs in 2021. Another battalion is therefore likely to be re-equipped with Belarus-made wheeled APCs.

On 21 November, Valery Revenka, Head of the Defence Ministry’s Department for International Military Cooperation, stated that Belarusian servicemen are undergoing training at the Infantry School in Belgaum, India, under previously agreed bilateral cooperation arrangements.

An interview with Ruslan Chekhau, Head of the Missile Forces and Artillery Directorate of the General Staff, aired on 24 November on the “Arsenal” TV programme. Chekhau reported ongoing modernisation of Belarus’s multiple-launch rocket systems (“Uragan,” “Grad,” “Smerch”) and self-propelled artillery, as well as the development of a Belarus-made counter-battery radar. UAV units have been created within artillery formations, equipped with fixed-wing systems such as the Belarusian “Berkut-3” and Russian Supercam S350/S150, Orlan-10, and Orlan-30, alongside Chinese DJI quadcopters. Chekhau also noted that Belarusian personnel plan to conduct launches of the “Polonez-M” MLRS at a Russian training ground in the near future.

From 21 to 23 November, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya conducted a working visit to Estonia focused on security dialogue, international support, and practical issues affecting the Belarusian diaspora. In meetings with President Alar Karis, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, and Interior Minister Igor Taro, discussions covered the Lukashenka regime’s dependence on Russia and its complicity in the war against Ukraine, the humanitarian track on political prisoners (including talks with US, the Vatican), hybrid threats to neighbouring states, and legalisation pathways for Belarusians in exile, including the issues of expired passports, “foreigner’s passports,” relocation from third countries, and implementation of PACE’s “Luxembourg decisions.” Estonia reiterated long-term support for democratic forces, the mandate of the Special Envoy for Belarus, and the work of the Democratic Forces Mission in Tallinn, highlighting three priorities: international isolation of the regime, support for political prisoners, and the strengthening of regional security.

Opening the conference “Authoritarianism and Resistance: Lessons from Belarus and Georgia” in Tallinn, Tsikhanouskaya described Belarus as being under “hybrid occupation,” stressing that the regime’s stability relies on Russian backing, while a latent societal resistance persists – through language and culture, support for political prisoners, and the exiled civic infrastructure of media, human rights organisations, solidarity funds, and digital platforms. Her core message was that Belarusians and democratic structures are “ready for the next window of opportunity,” and that although the regime appears strong, it is an “empty construction” unable to stand without the Kremlin.

On 22 November, it became public that Aliaksandr Lukashenka pardoned 31 Ukrainian citizens imprisoned in Belarus on “political” and war-related charges. Presidential spokesperson Natallia Eismant linked the decision to an “agreement between Donald Trump and Aliaksandr Lukashenka” and to a “request from the Ukrainian side” in the context of creating conditions for resolving the war, framing the move as a “gesture of goodwill.” US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale stated that the releases resulted from US–Belarus negotiations and represented “another positive step by Lukashenka toward broader objectives,” thanking Ukrainian intelligence and noting the personal involvement of US President Donald Trump and Congressman Chris Smith. Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR) confirmed its participation, describing the Belarusian position as “constructive” and noting that many of those freed had been detained for pro-Ukrainian views or alleged assistance to Ukraine.

On 20 November it also emerged that Lukashenka pardoned two Catholic priests – Henrikh (Hennadz) Akalatovich and Andrzej Yukhnevich – previously sentenced in closed trials to 11 and 13 years respectively on grave charges including “state treason” and alleged sexual offences against minors. The Conference of Catholic Bishops of Belarus directly linked the decision to the October visit of Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti, the Special Envoy of Pope Leo XIV, and to agreements reached with Lukashenka. According to the Catholic side, Cardinal Gugerotti, Apostolic Nuncio Ignazio Ceffalia and Archbishop Józef Staneŭski were personally involved. Official Minsk presented the move as an act of “mercy and respect for the Pope.” Immediately after the release, both priests were transferred out of Belarus and are now in the Vatican. Human rights organisations classified both men among political prisoners. Meanwhile, the Polish monk Grzegorz Havel, arrested on espionage charges, remains in custody in Belarus.

On 14 November, Lukashenka approved the construction of the third unit of the Belarusian nuclear power plant, effectively launching the second stage of the Astravets plant; on 17 November he added that Belarus is “ready to build 85–90% of this unit on its own,” relying on domestic capacities while engaging Russia for engineering and reactor supply. In parallel, a second nuclear plant in eastern Belarus is being discussed, contingent on increased electricity demand. Lukashenka cited his 15 November phone call with Vladimir Putin and support from Rosatom, emphasising Moscow’s “green light” for the project. The regime presents nuclear expansion as a strategic success reducing gas dependency and aligning with the global “renaissance of nuclear energy.” To ensure sufficient load for new capacity, Lukashenka advocates accelerated electrification – from transport and electric-heated housing to potential expansion of cryptocurrency mining as a way to “move away from the dollar.”

Following the partial reopening of the two Lithuania–Belarus border crossings on 20 November (Šalčininkai/Benyakoni and Medininkai/Kamenny Loh), the crisis involving Lithuanian trucks and cross-border airspace incidents has evolved into a protracted diplomatic standoff. For formal legal reasons, Belarus began releasing to Lithuania only those trucks that entered after the border posts resumed operations, while “older” vehicles stranded in Belarus prior to reopening remain in paid parking lots under the control of Belarusian security services  – a situation described by Lithuanian officials and transport associations as de facto racketeering. Minsk maintains that resolution requires political negotiations between the two foreign ministries, arguing that Lithuania violated legal procedures both when closing and when reopening the border by failing to provide prior notification. Minsk also signals concern that, without such a political framework, similar unilateral closures could be repeated in the future.

Queues at the reopened  border crossings persist, and Lithuania has tightened inspections of  vehicles (including 100% cargo scanning at Medininkai), and throughput remains limited. Meanwhile, on 23 November, Lithuanian aviation authorities again temporarily restricted flights near Vilnius Airport after detecting radar signatures resembling aerostats moving toward the facility – a reminder of the original trigger for the crisis: meteorological balloons and smuggling-related aerostats launched from Belarusian territory that had previously forced security-driven airport shutdowns.

On 21 November, the Belarusian MFA announced joint efforts with Poland to locate two Ukrainian citizens accused by Warsaw of railway sabotage (on the Warsaw–Lublin line and near Puławy), allegedly in the interests of Russian intelligence. Minsk confirmed their entry into Belarus, stated that “search activities” were underway, and pledged to detain and “consider transfer” to Poland if found – while noting that a formal Polish legal-assistance request had not yet been received. Reacting to Minsk’s attempt to distance itself from the incidents, Poland’s Interior Minister and Head of the Chancellery, Martin Kerviński, called the statements declarative, stressing that he expects real action and “is used to judging by facts rather than words.” He confirmed that Poland had submitted a diplomatic note requesting the search and extradition, and underlined that the sabotage incidents were unrelated to Warsaw’s decision to partially reopen border crossings.

According to Belstat, the Belarusian economy grew by 1.5% in January–October — well below the government’s target of 4.1%. Growth is constrained by a decline in manufacturing and stagnation in agriculture, following the exhaustion of gains from the harvest season. The EBRD and World Bank project more modest outcomes, in the range of 1.7–3%, citing sanctions, trade reorientation, and rising budget expenditures.

More than 50 people have received sentences in the Belarusian Hajun case, according to  human righs defenders. There are now more than 100 defendants in the case, of whom 89 are publicly known. All are being tried on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”.

On 19 November, human rights activists recognised four people as political prisoners. They are charged or found guilty of group actions grossly violating public order, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. On 20 November, human rights activists recognised six more people as political prisoners. They have been convicted or charged of facilitating “extremist activities”. The number of political prisoners, as of 20 November, is 1,257.

On 21 November, 30 more people were added to the list of “persons involved in extremist activities”. There are now 6,019 entries on the list.

Maksim Ralko was sentenced to ten years of imprisonment  in a high-security colony. “Being a member of the criminal organisation Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, from April 2022 to January 2024 he underwent training in order to participate in extremist activities. He was a member of the extremist formation as a militant in various structural units. Without being authorised by the state, he took part in the armed conflict and military operations on the territory of Ukraine,” the Prosecutor General’s Office said in a statement.

Interrogations of travellers resumed at checkpoints on the Belarusian-Polish border after they reopened on the night of 17 November. Users of thematic chats reported that the security forces show a special interest in citizens of Ukraine entering Belarus. However, citizens of other countries are often checked as well.

The BYSOL foundation is launching a Christmas fundraising campaign for children of political prisoners. This year, BYSOL expects more than 200 applications for assistance from families of children of political prisoners. Therefore, it aims to raise 20,000 Euro, which will allow it to send 100 Euro to each child. Applications from parents – victims of repression or from those who now care for children of political prisoners will be accepted online until 21 December. Payments will be made as funds become available. The fundraising campaign aims to help the families of political prisoners create a festive atmosphere for their children and receive additional support during a period when the absence of relatives is especially painful.

On 17 November, the BYSOL foundation announced the completion of payments from the emergency fundraising campaign for prisoners released on 11 September. Thirty-one ex-prisoners received monetary assistance. It is noted that one person refused to receive the funds, asking that they be redirected to other people. BYSOL is currently waiting for applications for assistance from ex-prisoners with foreign citizenship, who were released on 11 September and taken to Lithuania, by the end of this year. If there are no such requests, the remaining funds will be distributed among those who have already received support. 111,423 Euro were collected within the framework of the emergency fundraising campaign for prisoners released on 11 September.

On 17 November, Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; Mary Lawlor, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders; Gina Romero, Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association; Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism; Margaret Satterthwaite, Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers; Ganna Yudkivska (Chair-Rapporteur), Matthew Gillett (Vice-Chair on Communications), Miriam Estrada Castillo (Vice-Chair on Follow-Up), Mumba Malila, and Ethan Hee-Seok Shin, Working Group on Arbitrary Detention; and Gabriella Citroni (Chair-Rapporteur), Grażyna Baranowska (Vice-Chair), Aua Baldé, Ana Lorena Delgadillo Pérez, and Mohammed Al-Obaidi, Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances, jointly denounced the designation of the Belarusian Association of Human Rights Lawyers (BAHRL) as an “extremist formation” and called on Belarus to end repression against independent lawyers. “The undue interference and restrictions placed on the legal profession in Belarus risk opening the door to systematic violations of the right to a fair trial and to equality before the law throughout country,” the experts said. They recalled that the Belarusian anti-extremist legal framework is incompatible with international human rights law, stressing that the designation of BAHRL as “extremist” amounted to a violation of the right to freedom of association of its members. “We urge, once again, the Belarusian authorities to repeal the category of ‘extremism’ in national law and bring its national counterterrorism and counterextremism legal framework into line with international law,” the experts said.

The Working Group on Arbitrary Detention reviewed the case of former political prisoner Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk and found her imprisonment arbitrary and in violation of international law. In its decision, the Working Group indicated that Sharenda-Panasyuk was imprisoned for exercising her right to freedom of expression: she was convicted of allegedly insulting police officers and Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The Working Group stressed that such statements, no matter how unpleasant they may be for the authorities, fall within the limits of the right to freedom of expression protected by Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, especially in the context of alleged violations of rights and the legitimate reaction of a citizen to injustice. The Working Group agreed with the opinion of the Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Belarus, who recommended that Belarus repeal Articles 368 and 369 of the Criminal Code. In addition, the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention noted that Sharenda-Panasyuk’s right to a fair trial was grossly violated. In particular, violations included the unjustified closure of court sessions in criminal cases, her placement in a cage during the trial, as well as the general dependence of judges on the executive branch and the lack of their impartiality. The Working Group concluded that there is no independent judicial system in Belarus and noted that Belarusian judges conduct “accusatory” proceedings, violating the presumption of innocence and the right of the accused to have access to a lawyer. The Working Group separately described and condemned the practice of applying Article 411 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Belarus (“malicious disobedience to the requirements of the administration of a correctional institution”), which is used to constantly extend the term of imprisonment. It stressed that this practice is completely incompatible with international norms. The Working Group concluded that the present case, together with other cases concerning arbitrary detention in Belarus, may indicate a widespread or systematic practice of arbitrary detention and emphasised that states have an obligation to prevent acts that may amount to crimes against humanity, as well as to punish such acts if they are committed. The Working Group urged Belarus to immediately remedy the situation of Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk, ensure full compensation for her damages, to investigate the circumstances of her arbitrary imprisonment and to take appropriate measures against those responsible for violating her rights.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is among the laureates of the Index on Censorship’s 2025 Freedom of Expression Awards. The award recognises those who have had a significant impact in the fight against censorship anywhere in the world. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received the award in the “Trustees’ Award” nomination. The names of the winners were announced on 19 November at a ceremony in London. Jemimah Steinfeld, CEO of Index on Censorship, said: “It was especially difficult to choose the laureates this year, as threats to freedom of expression continue to grow. But it also means that there is a growing number of people and organisations willing to stand up to autocracy. These winners remind us of the extreme courage displayed at a time when darkness seems to be gathering around us. Let their stories be an example for all of us, including in the UK, where for a long time we took basic rights for granted, but now we see that nothing — not even freedom of expression — is guaranteed. We also hope that this award will draw attention to regions of the world that are too often ignored, including Belarus, and will support both the laureates themselves and their broader goals.»

On 20 November, the Lithuanian Seimas approved the establishment of an information centre for Belarusian citizens in Vilnius. Ninety-six members of the Seimas voted unanimously for the law introducing it. The information centre will provide Belarusians with information about the work and values of the Council of Europe, as well as about events held in Lithuania to support the civil society of Belarus.

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Best regards, iSANS team