Belarus Review by iSANS — November 18, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 43)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS). 

Flights of Russian drones from Ukraine into the airspace of Belarus have continued. During the week under review, at least 32 drones (mainly Shahed-136/131) were recorded flying over the airspace of Belarus. On November 11, six Shahed-136/131 flew into the airspace of Belarus. On November 12 — ten Shahed-136/131. On November 13 — ten Shahed-136/131. On November 14 — two Shahed-136/131. On November 16 — four (Shahed-136/131 and reconnaissance drones). Subsequently, most of them flew to Ukraine. The destruction of drones by units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus was not reported. In total, from July 11 to November 17, at least 163 Russian drones flew into the airspace of Belarus. Of these, six were shot down by the Armed Forces of Belarus and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or crashed on the territory of Belarus.

On November 11, the media reported that the branch of the Russian company BTK Group, located in Brest, is sewing uniforms for the Russian Armed Forces. The work is going on around the clock. A truck with finished goods is sent to Russia every week. The tailoring of uniforms is one of the numerous examples of the Lukashenka regime’s support for Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine.

On November 13-14, at the base of the 30^th railway brigade in Slutsk, a meeting of the command staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus took place. The purpose of the event was called “the development of unified approaches to the training of officials of military administration and troops, taking into account the orientation of the training of the Armed Forces, the organization of daily activities in the course of solving tasks in the new academic year.” During the event, a display of weapons and military equipment of various branches of the armed forces was organized. Special attention was paid to drones, as well as electronic warfare. Most of the presented samples of wheeled and tracked vehicles were equipped with various types of anti-drone protection. During the event, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin summed up the results of the passing training period and outlined plans. According to the official, in 2024, more than 60 titles of modern weapons and military equipment were accepted for the supply of the Armed Forces. The main event of combat training of the Armed Forces in 2025 will be the Belarusian-Russian exercises “ZAPAD-2025”. Several surprise inspections are also planned.

On November 13, the head of the Department for the Application and Development of Unmanned Aircraft Systems spoke about developing and introducing new drones. According to the official, developing a new “Quadro-M” drone designed to drop ammunition is being completed. It is planned to be introduced next year. In 2024, the first Belarusian-made kamikaze attack drone, the “Chekan—V”, was put into service. Plans for 2025 include the creation of a special unit for its use, as well as the supply of “Chekan-V” to the troops.

On November 14, it became known that a canteen with 680 seats will be built for the military camp in the Homel region. The facility worth ca. 3.93 million USD is planned to be built by March 2026. The declared capacity of the canteen will allow to provide meals for the military personnel of the whole brigade. The military camp in the Homel region is intended for 1) units of the emerging Southern Operational Command; and 2) a new compound (brigade) of the Special Operations forces.

From November 11 to 22, the 29^th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) is taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan. Among the world leaders, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is also attending the event. In the same way as the last year, Polish President Andrzej Duda didn’t join the leaders for a family photo because of the presence of Lukashenka. According to the statement from the circle of the Polish President, it was a thought through decision of the President. Since it is a family photo, President Duda doesn’t want to have Lukashenka on it. Reportedly, such actions don’t go unnoticed and are always backed by decisions of the politicians.

On November 11, it was reported that the database with personal data (name, last name,  name of the organization, position, passwords, emails, phone numbers) from the website vat.gov.by appeared online. The website vat.gov.by is a platform for issuing electronic VAT invoices. Hackers from DumpForums claim they hacked the website and leaked the information. Several days later, the same hackers announced that they hacked the website of the Belarusian National Bank and obtained its customer database. Reportedly, thanks to this, some of the Belarusian State Institutions’ data was obtained and processed. The hackers claim they have obtained also information on internal projects and plans of the bank.

On November 14, it became known that the Estonian government approved a constitutional amendment to strip Russian and Belarusian citizens residing in Estonia permanently of the right to vote in the country’s municipal elections. According to the Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, under the amendment, Estonian citizens, stateless persons residing in Estonia, and citizens of European Union and NATO countries 16 years old and over can vote in the country’s local elections in accordance with Point 2 of Article 156 of the constitution. The amendment will affect more than 70,000 Russian and Belarusian citizens who permanently reside in Estonia. A total of 42.5% of all Russian citizens then eligible to vote in Estonia cast their ballots in the 2021 municipal elections. This figure for Belarusian citizens stood at 49.5%.

Belarusian IT companies EPAM and Wargaming which reside in Lithuania and are the largest taxpayers in the IT sector in Lithuania, declared lower numbers of paid taxes, compared to the previous year, as reported by the media on November 14. According to the data of the Lithuanian State Tax inspection under the Ministry of Finance of Lithuania, EPAM paid 13.7 MN Euro into the state budget, which is 14% (or 2.1 MN Euro) less than in the previous year. The Lithuanian branch of Wargaming ranked second on the scale of the largest IT branch taxpayers in Lithuania after EPAM. The company contributed 10.3 MN Euro in taxes to the state budget from January to September 2024 but compared to 2023, the amount decreased by 13% (or 1.5MN Euro). The decrease in the tax amounts paid into Lithuania’s state budget is due to the shrinking number of employees in both Belarusian capital companies. Wargaming reports a 6% decline and EPAM over 10% decline in number of the employees. Reportedly, the reason for the decrease in staff is the stricter visa and residence permit issuance policy of Lithuania.

On November 16, the news portal BBC reported that the UK Communities Minister Gordon Lyon attended Northern Ireland’s game against Belarus despite UK government guidance that the game shouldn’t go ahead. The UK has sanctions in place against Belarus due to the country’s support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Reportedly, the UK government is “disappointed” that UEFA allowed the match at Windsor Park in south Belfast to go ahead, but despite this, the government granted visas to Belarusian players and staff.

On November 17, it was announced that the Representative for National Revival of the United Transitional Cabinet Alina Koushyk resigned from her post and took the position of the Editor-in-Chief of the media channel BelSat. BelSat is a Polish terrestrial and satellite television channel aimed at Belarus. The channel is a subsidiary of TVP S.A., co-funded by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and international donors. According to Koushyk, she agreed to take the position due to the significance of this post being in the hands of a Belarusian national, as BelSat is a Belarusian media working for Belarus and should retain its significance, also on a political scale.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed Belarusians on the anniversary of the death of Raman Bandarenka, remembering the “horror and outrage over this tragedy that resonated in the hearts of every Belarusian.” Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that Raman’s murder is “not a sorrow borne by one family; it is a shared pain that we all carry with us.” In her address, the leader of the democratic forces outlined the ongoing repression, new arrests, and political persecution in Belarus. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya joined a solidarity rally in Vilnius, held in memory of Raman Bandarenka.

Repression in Belarus has intensified before the presidential “elections”. From the beginning of September to the middle of November, human rights defenders recorded 1,452 cases of repression. This includes detentions, searches, and administrative trials. At least 1,213 politically motivated administrative cases have been considered in the courts, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports.

“Viasna” Human Rights Center received and analyzed new information about a wave of mass detentions that took place across Belarus on October 31 and November 1. KGB officers detained dozens of persons and conducted searches at their place of residence. Some were released after interrogations as witnesses in a criminal case, and some were placed in custody on charges of conspiracy or other actions committed to seize state power. A few days after the raid, the KGB recognized several yard chats as an “extremist formation” — presumably, this was the reason for the mass detentions. “Viasna” notes that criminal prosecution on charges of “conspiracy or other actions committed to seize state power” has been used by the regime since 2020 against activists and politicians. In just four years, at least 67 persons have been convicted of “attempted conspiracy or conspiracy to seize state power,” and almost half of them were convicted in absentia. There are currently 25 persons imprisoned under these charges, and two more were recently pardoned by Lukashenka.

The names of five political prisoners released on pardon after November 7 became known. Their names have not been officially announced before. Recently, propagandist Yuri Vaskrasenski has announced the names of some of them. These are Aliaksandr Boyka, Aliaksei Yarashevich, Katsiaryna Shablinskaya-Ivanava, Eduard Isayeu, and Belemuk (there are two political prisoners with this surname, Dzmitry, and Yauhen, it is not clear which of them was released).

Political prisoner Maryja Kalesnikava met with her father in prison. Her photo with her father was published by the former opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich, who is now cooperating with the authorities. Before the meeting, the family had not been able to contact Kalesnikava for more than 600 days, and her situation was referred to as incommunicado detention by human rights defenders and the democratic forces. At the end of October, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said in an interview with BBC journalist Steve Rosenberg on the margins of the BRICS summit in Kazan that he was ready to consider petitions for clemency from political prisoners, including Maryja Kalesnikava. Rosenberg reminded Lukashenka that Kalesnikava is in isolation in the colony and even family members are not allowed to see her. In response, Lukashenka stated that he allowed her father to visit her when he “asked”, and that if any other relative or friend wanted to visit Kalesnikava and asked for it, their request would be considered. Representatives of the German Embassy in Minsk expressed their joy at the interruption of the incommunicado regime in which Maryja was held and drew attention to the fact that Belarus is obliged to comply with humanitarian standards concerning prisoners. These include the right to visit, receive mail, and receive medical care. “We demand the release of all political prisoners,” the embassy said in a statement.

The Prosecutor’s Office of the Hrodna region sent a criminal case against a well-known blogger and activist Anton Matolka to the court. It was investigated within a framework of a special procedure (in absentia). Matolka has been charged with conspiracy to seize state power unconstitutionally, organizing mass riots, organizing group actions that grossly violate public order, inciting social hostility and discord, public calls for restrictive measures (sanctions), other actions aimed at harming the national security of the Republic of Belarus, threatening violence, defamation and public insult of the President of the Republic of Belarus, discrediting the Republic of Belarus, creation of an extremist formation and the leadership of such a formation, financing of extremist activities and high treason. The prosecutor’s office claimed that Matolka “acted as part of a stable and controlled group of participants in the conspiracy” both on the territory of Belarus and abroad, and he was one of its leaders. As a result of his actions, according to the prosecutor’s office, state bodies, institutions, and organizations suffered damage of over 30 million rubles (more than 8.5 million euros).

On November 14, KGB officers conducted another raid across the country. Friends and relatives of political prisoners were also detained, the Dissidentby initiative reports. The raids affected Hrodna, Zhodzina, Minsk, Brest, Kobryn, Baranavichi, and Vitsebsk regions. BYSOL founder Andrei Stryzhak underlined that it was the third raid conducted during the autumn. He noted the hybrid format of the present wave of repression — in parallel with the arrests and searches, there is an information campaign about the alleged “thaw” (no “repentant” videos, organization of a meeting between Maryja Kalesnikava and her father, targeted pardons). “There were several hundred persons in sight of the security forces during this raid. Special emphasis was placed on the regions of Palotsk and Navapalotsk,” he said. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Center, the detentions continued for several days.

On November 15, a report “How persons, who have experienced torture and/or ill-treatment, perceive justice” was published and presented in Warsaw. It is a result of the joint work of “Viasna” and the International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus. The document is a three-part study, which includes legal analysis, psychological aspects, and sociological data. The report noted that 84% of respondents rated the chances of justice inside Belarus soon as practically zero or low. 64% of respondents consider the chances of achieving justice shortly in other countries and with the help of international organizations to be also low. Among the respondents, 82% believe that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has to be held accountable for the violence, 80% — the entire regime, 60% — ordinary security officers, and 11% — those who voted for Lukashenka. 46% of respondents support the creation of an international tribunal for Belarus, 34% believe that justice should prevail in the Belarusian courts after the change of power, while 6% said that justice should be achieved in courts of democratic countries within the framework of universal jurisdiction.

37 new names were added to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities” on November 16. Among the “extremists” were both those currently imprisoned and those at large.

12 Ukrainian citizens have been detained in Belarus under “extremist” articles. According to former Ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus Igor Kizim, the Belarusian authorities usually do not inform Ukraine about the detention of its citizens. The embassy finds out about them if they apply to it themselves, or their relatives or human rights organizations inform it about their detention. Ukrainians, who have lived in Belarus for many years and have families there, prefer not to turn to the Ukrainian authorities for help, fearing for the safety of their relatives. According to human rights activists, Ukrainians are most often persecuted for “cooperation with the Ukrainian special services,” and their actions are classified as “intelligence activity” and “espionage.” At least eight Ukrainian citizens are known to have been charged with these crimes. After the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, pressure on Ukrainians in Belarus has increased, they are detained on administrative and criminal cases, while those who cross the Belarusian border are thoroughly interrogated and have their phones checked.

Andrei Kurlovich, a well-known doctor, and head of the anesthesiology and intensive care unit of the Rechytsa Central District Hospital, was accused of distributing, manufacturing, storing, and transporting information products containing calls for extremist activities or promoting such activities. His trial is scheduled for November 19th.

On November 12, on the anniversary of Raman Bandarenka’s death, the United States called for the release of all political prisoners in Belarus. “On 12th November 2020, Raman Bandarenka died at the hands of the Belarusian regime. Almost four years on, political prisoner Dmitriy Shletgauer died in a penal colony in Belarus. Seven political prisoners have died in Belarusian detention since 2020. Too many lives have been cut short. We remember these victims and call for the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners,” as stated on the U.S. Embassy page on Facebook. European diplomats working in Minsk also issued a joint statement on the fourth anniversary of Roman Bondarenko’s death. The statement was signed by the Embassies of Slovakia, Great Britain, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Ireland. The US Embassy also joined them.

On November 12, members of the European Parliament issued a statement where they once again demanded from the Belarusian authorities full respect for human rights, the right to freedom of association, including for political parties, as well as full compliance with OSCE international standards on elections, as adopted by the Human Rights Committee. “The right of each citizen, resident in Belarus or outside, to vote, and to be elected, as well the right to have access to public service must be fully respected,” reads a statement on the occasion of the Solidarity Day with Belarus, dedicated to the day of Raman Bandarenka’s death. The statement was presented by Małgorzata Gosiewska, Chair of the Bureau of the EP Delegation for Relations with Belarus, as well as Standing Rapporteur on Belarus of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament Helmut Brandstätter. They stressed the continuation of repressions in Belarus, as well as the deterioration of the human rights situation on the eve of the election campaign announced by Aliaksandr Lukashenka. “In the run-up to the upcoming so-called presidential elections scheduled to take place on 26 January 2025, the human rights situation has deteriorated rapidly. The regime has stepped up persecution of candidates, initiative groups, observers, activists, and citizens who in 2020 have supported the nomination of independent candidates with their signatures. Recently, an alarming increase in arbitrary detentions, which could amount to enforced disappearances, has been reported. In this situation, the mockery staging in January 2025 cannot be regarded as elections,” they said.

On November 13, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis signed an Agreement on cooperation with the Council of Europe which establishes the CoE Information Center for the people of Belarus in Vilnius. “I hope that this center will play a key role in disseminating information and strengthening capacities in the field of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law so that when the time comes, the people of Belarus will create a democratic and prosperous future for their country,” Landsbergis stated. According to the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the agreement was signed taking into account the agreements reached by the CoE Contact Group on Cooperation with Representatives of Democratic Forces and Civil Society of Belarus. Lithuania, which holds the Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers, has made a voluntary contribution to the establishment of the center.

In his congratulations to the Polish people on the occasion of Independence Day on November 11, Aliaksandr Lukashenka expressed confidence that “people’s diplomacy” will help the Belarusian authorities to improve relations with the neighboring country: “Step by step, as more and more Poles come to our country under the visa-free regime, people’s diplomacy is being strengthened, the need to return to normal relations at the interstate level is growing. I believe that soon this natural need of both societies will be realized. Minsk is ready to continue working in this direction.”

German actor and director Til Schweiger visited Belarus for the first time in early November; he came to Minsk to shoot a promotional video about drift races. The Lukashenka-controlled BelTA agency showed a video of a press conference about the Blockchain Sports Drift project, during which Schweiger praises Belarus, saying that he has heard only good things about it and that it is “a very clean and safe country.” Against this background, the German edition of Bild reproached him for “engaging in propaganda for Putin’s friend”. In response, the actor revealed the details of his communication with the Belarusian propagandists in his Instagram stories: “Recently, I took part in a press conference solely to talk about my participation in the movie as part of the advertising campaign, as well as to share with the public the creative work behind it. I was promised that the event would focus entirely on the commercial and its content. Unfortunately, I must say that part of the press conference was taken out of context and used to support a message that is not in line with my beliefs or my intentions. To be clear, I did not support any political or ideological position that resulted from this piece, and I am distancing myself from it.”

On November 12, it became known that the father of political prisoner Maryia Kalesnikava was allowed to meet with his daughter, who was kept in the “incommunicado” regime for more than 600 days. But Belarusian propagandists decided not to emphasize the hardships that the political prisoner had to face in prison; they write about Maryia in a mocking tone and claim that her associates abroad allegedly benefit from her further imprisonment or even death, as they allegedly seek to make her a victim and a martyr to continue receiving help and support from the “collective West”. Ryhor Azaronak: “Masha in a coffin, dead, blue, cold, starting to rot – that would be very profitable for them. And fat and contented – not in the suit at all.” In his opinion, since “NATO troops haven’t come, nothing has collapsed” and Maryia can write a petition for pardon to Lukashenka, his opponents “dream that Masha will die abruptly”.

On the same day, Lukashenka-controlled media reported that Siarhei Bobrykau, chairman of the Officers’ Union, and Volha Chamadanava, head of the ideological work department of Minsk City Executive Committee, who had earlier registered their initiative groups, had announced that they were withdrawing from the presidential race. Pro-government experts began to comment on this news to assure their fellow citizens that nothing extraordinary had happened, that a “normal” and “healthy” political process was underway, and that such a decision was quite “objective and justified” because both are supporters of Lukashenka. MP Vadzim Hihin: “Volha Chamadanava and Siarhei Bobrykau have already achieved a significant result at this stage. They have attracted the attention of voters, mass media, and experts, first, to those public organizations and political forces they represent. And this speaks of the healthy state of the domestic political system.” Pro-government expert Aliaksandr Shpakouski: “… Bobrykau is the head of the public association of Belarusian officers, and Chemadanava is a civil servant of the ideological vertical, responsible for the most important direction – the content of the internal political bloc in the Belarusian capital. Their further participation in the elections, even on Lukashenka’s ideological and political platform, would look somewhat illogical, given the fact that it is the incumbent president who is both commander-in-chief and head of the executive branch.” A little later, Lukashenka himself decided to clarify the situation: “I was in favor of all parties, large public organizations to nominate their candidates. We had Volya Chemadanava and Bobrykau. Well, normal people. Of course, they are supporters of the president. And they were going to take part in this election [with this intention]: “We know that the president will win, but we won’t let him be offended.” As if anybody could offend me. And then they looked at it, they looked at it: they don’t understand it inside the organizations. And they: [decided]: “We’d better take off.”

On November 14, Lukashenka said that a woman could not be president of Belarus yet: “God forbid a woman is elected in Belarus. The U.S. President does not have the same powers, and here you must go into every detail. In Belarus, the President is the commander-in-chief. And then, it’s a very hard job. You shouldn’t burden a woman so much, it’s not a ceremonial position. Maybe in time, we will come to such a style. But for now, it’s different. It’s not a woman’s style. A woman should also be a woman. Therefore, a woman should not be burdened with such powers, such responsibilities. If there are female presidents in Belarus – let them be men, why burden women?”. In his opinion, a woman’s place is next to men, so that they could “lean” on women’s shoulders, so “we shouldn’t shift our responsibilities to women.”

On November 15, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Aliaksandr Valfovich said that diplomats of the EU countries had not arrived in Minsk for the conference on illegal migration and the promotion of regional cooperation in solving this problem. At the same time, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou refuted his words, saying that some representatives of Western countries were present: “There was a representative of the British embassy, there was an Ambassador of Hungary, which today is the acting EU president.” Ryzhankou believes that the European Union should talk to Minsk if it wants to solve the problem of illegal migration: “In the speech of the leaders of the security bloc you heard how serious the situation is. Unfortunately, they don’t hear us. Moreover, some people, who should work in this direction in the West, don’t even want to hear.” Ryzhankou also did not fail to lay the responsibility for the migration crisis on Western countries. In his opinion, they came to the countries of migrants’ “exodus” and broke the “foundations of life” there, trying to impose “democracy”. The minister suggested that the EU leadership should go directly to Minsk and negotiate with it without taking into account the opinion of neighboring Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which in recent years have faced unprecedented hybrid attacks, for which the Belarusian authorities used migrants: “We need to return to normal conditions of cooperation on the border with the EU, which will provide a solution to all the problems. If our neighbors can’t solve it, and also earn on it (political, economic – any dividends), classical Europe (Brussels, capitals from London to Paris) should think about it and come to us. We are ready for this.” Ryzhankou also hinted that Minsk might organize and hold a conference on “xenophobia” in Europe in the future. He stated that the Belarusian side planned to “raise the issue of the neglectful, insulting, and boorish attitude in some EU countries towards the citizens of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine legally residing there.”

Best regards,
iSANS team