Belarus Review by iSANS — November 12, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 42)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS). This issue is published today, because of the November 11 — the national holiday in Poland — the Independence Day.

Russian drones from Ukraine continued to fly into Belarusian airspace. During the week under review, at least 17 Shahed-136/131 drones flew over the airspace of Belarus. Thus, on November 4, two Shahed-136/131 drones flew into the airspace of Belarus. On November 5 – two  Shahed-136/131. On November 6 – three Shahed-136/131. On November 310 – 10 Shahed-136/131. Subsequently, part of the drones flew to Ukraine. The destruction of drones by the units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus was not reported. In total, at least 137 Russian drones flew into the airspace of Belarus from July 11 to November 10. Of them, six were shot down by the Air Defense Forces of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces or crashed on the territory of Belarus.

On November 5, the publication “Belarus Military Newspaper. In Glory of the Motherland” published an interview with Uladzimir Kuprijaniuk, head of the Main Intelligence Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. According to the official, NATO activities pose a military threat to the “Union State” of Russia and Belarus. Thus, according to Kuprijaniuk, the U.S. and its NATO allies are building up military forces and infrastructure near the borders of the “Union State,” as well as increasing support for Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia. Analyzing the current military and political steps of NATO, Kuprijaniuk concludes that the alliance is preparing for an open armed confrontation with Belarus and Russia.

On November 6, the Military Academy hosted the graduation of officers from China. The event was noted as “ not only an indicator of effective military cooperation but also an example of strong, friendly relations and high trust between our peoples.”

On November 6, it was reported that the 11^th Mechanized Brigade received another batch of Chinese Chimera UAVs. The purchase of drones for the Armed Forces of Belarus was reported in October 2024.

On November 8, it became known that the State Border Committee plans to build two new border outposts by the end of 2026: “Karpovka” – in Loyevsky district (Homel region) and “Selishche” – in Stolin district (Brest region). The Karpovka border outpost was formed back in September 2017. The peculiarity of the outpost is the modular location of all its facilities: some are on land, some – on water. In this case, it is not about the formation of a new unit, but about the construction of “stationary” infrastructure. The plans to build the border outpost “Selishche” were known as early as 2019. The expansion of the network of border outposts on the Belarus-Ukraine border continues.

On November 5, the Lithuanian Parliament (Seimas) approved the law initiative to denounce another bilateral agreement with Belarus – this time on combating customs law violations. Commenting on the decision, Lithuania’s Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste said that it is reasonable to denounce the customs cooperation agreement with Belarus as there has been almost no cooperation between the Lithuanian and the Belarusian customs departments since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

On November 7, the media published information about the EU’s concern about the mass import of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus as they are hitting European producers. Domestic fertilizer producers feel this very painfully and are hoping for government intervention. Thus, Poland became the leader among the EU member states in terms of the volume of nitrogen fertilizers imported from Russia. In the period from January to August 2024, imports amounted to 862,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizers, which is more than 26% of all fertilizer imports from Russia to all EU countries. According to Tomasz Zelinski, president of the Polish Chamber of Chemical Industry (PIPC), the reason for the increase in imports is price dumping, in particular by Russian and Belarusian companies. Moreover, European fertilizer producers lose competitiveness in the global market due to increased production costs because of the gas prices. To solve this issue, the EU member states propose to increase the duty on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.

On November 7, the Lithuanian Seimas adopted law amendments prohibiting companies operating in “unfriendly” countries and territories from participating in public procurement processes, especially in the sphere of defense, security, water supplies, energy, transport, and postal services. The law amendments are aimed at prohibiting companies from Russia and the annexed Crimea, Belarus, Transnistria, also Abkhazia, and South Ossetia from participation in public procurement. According to the initiator of the law amendments, the amended law will ensure that suppliers participating in public procurement in Lithuania, cease commercial activities in the aggressor state or its zone of influence and thus will stop contributing to its budget replenishment in the form of taxes. According to the last year’s data, there were 140 such companies.

On the same day, it was announced that an Israeli company Check Point Software Technologies, a leading company in the market for cyber security solutions, is liquidating its business in Belarus. The company has worked in the country for about 20 years since 2004. The owner of the company announced ceasing business in Belarus at the end of October, but the information about the Minsk office of the company can still be found on its website.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, visited Strasbourg. During her working visit, she met with the leadership of the Council of Europe. As a result of the meetings, the Council of Europe will establish the Information Office for Belarus in Vilnius, as well as launch an internship program for Belarusians. The Coordination Council will take part in the upcoming PACE session. The CoE Contact Group will hold a meeting with the participation of the democratic forces of Belarus on December 2. During her working visit to Strasbourg, the Belarusian leader spoke with RFE/RL’s Belarusian service about the upcoming sham election in Belarus, potential presidential candidates, and the possible release of political prisoners: “Everyone knows that the candidates listed on the ballots are Lukashenka’s people, who will give up their votes for him. So, this in no way resembles a free election – it’s merely a show for Lukashenka. Belarusians see this, as do our democratic partners”.

On November 7, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya attended the Future for Democracy Forum in Vilnius which was organized by the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During the event, the Head of the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet presented the Cross of Good Neighborhood to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis, who is finishing his ministerial term soon. At the same time, after the presidential election outcome was announced, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya congratulated Donald Trump on his election as the US President and expressed hope for continued cooperation between the USA and the democratic forces of Belarus, including within the framework of the Strategic Dialogue.  On November 9, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya delivered an address in Berlin during the events on the 35th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall stating that the “Berlin Wall fell thanks to the courage of ordinary people, and the walls of oppression in Belarus will fall in the same way.”

Human rights activists have released details of security forces’ raids in Belarusian cities on October 31 and November 1. According to the “Viasna” Human Rights Center, people were detained as part of a criminal case under article 357 (Conspiracy or other actions committed to seize state power). Raids with searches and detentions mainly took place in the regions and small towns of Belarus. In addition to searches and detentions, there were also preventive visits to those who have at least the slightest signs of involvement in the 2020 protests and support for independent political thought. As part of these preventive actions, administrative processes were initiated for hooliganism, insubordination to authorities, or subscriptions to undesirable social networks and channels. If the KGB officers could not find subscriptions, forwarded messages, or likes of those resources that the authorities considered “extremist”, they came up with other grounds for administrative persecution. The attention of the security forces was also attracted by people who had no connection with the events of 2020, but who may be related to what they call “extremism.” According to “Viasna”, some details of the recent raids distinguish them from how the security forces have acted before. Such methods as disabling mobile communication before arrest or search were used. The security forces are carefully preparing for such raids and mobilizing more resources for them. The exact number of victims is not known, but it may be close to a hundred. In Smarhon alone, the “cleansing” affected at least 40 people, and in Slonim — at least 10. Dozens of people were “cleaned up” in Homel. Some of the detainees were released as witnesses in the criminal case, some remain in custody. Such raids are likely to be repeated.

The KGB has recognized the coalition of yard chats as an “extremist formation”. The decision was made on October 29. In this case, the formation was defined as “a group of citizens from among the representatives of the yard “communities” (formations /coalitions) “Orden” under the names “Zlyje kogtiki”, “Sukharevo”, “Senica 2.0”, “Solidarnost”, “Volnyja vauki”, “Navagrudskiya partyzany”, “Vilia”, “Skromnyje matrioshki”, as well as the organization “Sosedi”. In connection with the formation, the names of Iryna Yakouleva, Natallia Daronina, Dyjana Haurilava, and the head of the organization «“Sosedi”, citizen of Ukraine Ivan Omelyan were mentioned, as well as “curators (mentors)” of the formation: Volha Nyakhaychik, Kastus Kirylenka, Lizaveta Plitnik, Natallia Huzhova, Iryna Smalyarova, Stanislau Batvin, and Natallia Lantukh.

Since 2020, more than 1,200 people have been convicted of “insulting” Aliaksandr Lukashenka and “slandering” him, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. Most of them have been persecuted because of comments on social networks. In August, Lukashenka proposed adding a new article to the Criminal Code on responsibility for violence or threats against the president and former president of Belarus. The punishment provides for restriction of liberty for a term of three to five years or imprisonment for a term of three to eight years.

This October, “Viasna” Human Rights Center has recorded at least 366 cases of politically motivated repression stemming from criminal and administrative prosecution. “Politically motivated persecution of various levels is an urgent threat to all those who took part in protest performances or spoke critically about the political situation in the country or against regime officials, all those who expressed their opinions peacefully or supported protest structures, as well as sometimes to their relatives and friends,” stated “Viasna”. It is noted that the authorities continue to replenish the lists of persons and “formations” involved in “extremist” and “terrorist” activities, as well as the lists of “extremist” materials. This is a method of additional, often non-judicial, arbitrary restriction of rights and freedoms, human rights activists said.

Additional information has emerged about the death of political prisoner Dmitry Shlethauer. According to a family friend who now lives abroad, his death certificate indicates a “mechanical asphyxia” as a cause. Very often, such a record is made in cases of suicide. Meanwhile, the colony’s administration did not tell Dmitry’s family exactly what happened to him. According to a family friend, Dmitry’s relatives communicated with Dmitry through letters. His wife visited him in a pre-trial detention center No. 7 in Brest before and after the trial. The family believes that Dmitry did not intend to kill himself. Back in the pre-trial detention center, he began to diligently prepare for transfer to the colony, he collected cigarettes, sugar, tea, and coffee hoping to use them there. While Dmitry was in the pre-trial detention center, his son was born. He planned to write a petition for clemency and hoped to be released as soon as possible to see his son and wife. Dmitry told his family that he was treated well in the Brest pre-trial detention center, his cellmates and the administration did not create problems for him. He was transferred from the pre-trial detention center to Mahileu Colony No. 15 in early October 2024 and was immediately sent to the punishment cell. The reason for the punishment is unknown. On October 12, Schlethauer’s family received a message from the colony administration about his death. The date stated on the death certificate was October 11. Lead spokesperson for the external affairs of the EU, Peter Stano, commented on the information about the death of Dmitry Shlethauer. “It’s deplorable and shows the inhumane nature of Lukashenka’s repression. About 1,300 political prisoners are still being detained in appalling conditions. They must be released immediately,” he wrote on Twitter, posting photos of Belarusian political prisoners who died behind bars.

Siarhey Chabotska, the owner of the Hrodna website s13.ru, was tried under an administrative charge of a violation of the procedure for organizing or holding mass events. The case was considered on November 6 in the Leninsky district court of Hrodna. The outcome of the trial is yet unknown. On October 25, Chabotska was tried for distributing “extremist materials” and was sentenced to 15 days of administrative arrest. The s13.ru website, which is popular in Hrodna, is dedicated to the news of the region. It was recognized as “extremist materials” on October 25.

On November 7, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree pardoning 31 persons convicted of crimes of an “extremist” orientation. Two women and 29 men were pardoned, 17 of them have chronic diseases, and three persons have disabilities. “The convicts were exempted from their main punishment without removing their criminal record. The Ministry of Internal Affairs will ensure control over their law-abiding behavior,” the BelTA state news agency said. This is the fifth pardon of political prisoners in Belarus in 2024. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus urged not to take isolated cases of prisoner release for the overall improvement of the situation and recalled the mass arrests in Belarus last week when a wave of raids swept across the country.

Anna Strazhevich, a 58-year-old political prisoner, will be tried on five criminal charges. She was charged with defamation against Lukashenka, facilitating extremist activities, organizing and preparing actions that grossly violate public order, or actively participating in them, insulting a government representative, insulting Lukashenka, and facilitating extremist activities. The case is scheduled for November 14 in the Minsk Regional Court. Anna was detained on December 18, 2023. It is known that she was writing letters to political prisoners for several years. Human rights activists assume that she will be tried, among other things, for expressing her solidarity with them.

Poland does not give up trying to secure the release of political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut in Belarus. This was stated on TVN by the country’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. “We all know what kind of regime it is. We are trying to influence this situation through various channels, both on our continent and in agreement with our allies. But let’s remember that there are more political prisoners in Belarus about its population than in Poland during the martial law. Just like there are more political prisoners in Russia now than in the decaying Soviet Union under Brezhnev,” he said. Sikorski stressed that Russia and Belarus have “very harsh authoritarian regimes” and noted that “all Polish governments tried to play some kind of game with Lukashenka, but always with the same result”.

Denmark has begun issuing foreign passports to Belarusians. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya wrote on the social network X: “The Danish government has announced that starting from November 8, Belarusians living in the country will be able to receive passports of foreigners. I want to thank the Minister [for Immigration and Integration] Kaare Dybvad Bek for our constructive meeting in May and the support of Belarusians affected by the regime’s repression abroad.” In  September 2023, Lukashenka issued a decree banning diplomatic missions abroad from issuing new passports to citizens of Belarus. To replace the expired one, it is necessary to return to Belarus and apply to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. For those who leave the country for political reasons, this can lead to imprisonment.

On November 10, a memorial event dedicated to Raman Bandarenka and all those tortured by the Lukashenka regime was held in Vilnius. Raman Bandarenka died on November 12, 2020. He was beaten and detained at Ploshad Peremen Square in Minsk, after which he was taken in a minibus to the Central District police department. From there, he was hospitalized with cerebral edema and multiple injuries and died. The authorities tried to convince the public that he was drunk, but doctors found no alcohol in his blood. The criminal investigation into his death was suspended.

On November 4, some Belarusian propagandists congratulated “great Russia” on the Day of People’s Unity. Ryhor Azaronak reminded his readers that once on this day, “Polish occupiers were kicked out of the Kremlin,” and Kseniya Lebiadzeva, in her congratulatory message, reflected on historical events, which “remind us who is a friend, who is an enemy, who should never be trusted, why the Poles are Poles [Lebiadzeva used a derogative term “Lyakhi”] even after centuries, and why the Orthodox faith is the soul of the Russian people.” According to her belief, after centuries, “nothing has changed,” and now again, it is necessary to “stand up for faith, for truth, for traditions and the future.”

On the air CTV TV channel, pro-government expert Vadzim Baravik unexpectedly spoke out against the use in Belarus of certain narratives propagated by Russian military bloggers. Discussing the elections in Moldova, he suggested that both the East and the West are interfering in them, as they are fighting “for living space”. After that, he urged to call allies and partners “correctly”, “according to the Constitution”, as “this is where respect begins”: “… there is no Moldavia, and there is no Byelorussia. Moldova, Belarus, Turkmenistan. Then you will respect yourself. When you speak in the narratives of certain Z-patriots, you will have the wrong terminology, and we will educate young people wrong”.

Pro-government expert Aliaksandr Tsishchanka complained in an article for SB. Belarus Segodnya that “somewhere they still cheated the Moldovan brother”, because, in his opinion, “the choice for Sandu was in the end determined taking into account the competent distribution of voting stations abroad”. He believes that “everything went according to the plan of the West, Moldova remained under external management” and that is why the OSCE is “silent as a fish about violations.”

On November 5, Aliaksandr Lukashenka demanded that the election campaign be conducted in such a way that “it would go without a hitch.” According to him, his opponents abroad say that they are allegedly preparing for the 2030 elections, and the upcoming campaign is not important. He believes that they should not be trusted: “They cannot figure out what tactics they can develop. I think they will. There are a lot of sensible people around. And they will give money for this. But we must understand that the time has passed in the media just like that. They understand this. Therefore, they are ready for radical actions. This means that we must be ready to take adequate actions in response.” He assured that the authorities “concluded 2020,” so they will “act as our country and our people need.” Against the background of this speech, Ryhor Azaronak concluded that Lukashenka “is already very correctly orienting everyone towards 2030.” According to him, now the authorities are mobilized, the “statesmen, every governor, minister, law enforcement official” who have gone through the period of 2020-2024, are put in the key positions, so “there will be no vacillation within the system, no ‘negotiators’ and no ‘democrats’.” “Tons of dirt will be poured on all enviable public representatives of the authorities and society. But this is like a pellet to an elephant. Well, and the traditional for our enemies – terrorist attacks, murders, attempts to intimidate the vertical. Work is constantly underway to search for a “Belarusian Khrushchev” – an anti-system element in the system. The direct military threat in the region remains. And if Bat’ka had not returned the nuclear weapon, we would not be talking about elections now. We shall work. The state of Aliaksandr Lukashenka will stand strong and will stand for centuries,” he predicts.

On November 5, after a meeting of the Union Council of Ministers, Prime Minister of Belarus Raman Halouchanka said that Belarus and Russia had established the media company of the Union State, approved its charter and the composition of the supervisory board: “The organization will act as a single editorial board and customer of content aimed at popularizing the union building, promoting its achievements, covering the main events, including on third-party TV channels and information platforms.”

During the period under review, Lukashenka-controlled media and experts paid a lot of attention to the U.S. presidential election. Some of them cautiously praised Donald Trump, calling him a better option than Kamala Harris; others predicted that the election of either of them would still not guarantee better relations with the United States. Virtually all, in bringing up the topic, slipped into criticism of the “collective West.” Aliaksandr Shpakouski: “There is an opinion that the U.S. presidential elections will resemble the Moldovan presidential elections in terms of the transparency of the process of expression of the will of citizens and the vote counting procedure. This has certain advantages. The myth of democracy, the rule of law, and freedom of speech in the West is being destroyed before our eyes. And it was on this mythology that the alleged “moral right” of the West to interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states was based. Numerous “useful idiots” – “democratic activists” who acted as cannon fodder for color revolutions – justified their treacherous actions with this mythology. Now only a clinical idiot (alas, there are also many of them) can believe in certain ‘Western values’.” MP Siarhei Klishevich: “As a deputy, as a person, as a citizen of Belarus, I don’t care who will win there. The most important thing is that I am sure and understand, knowing the American political system, how it works, that they interfered and will continue to interfere in the affairs of other states until their internal political system collapses.” Propagandist Yury Tserakh: “I confess, I was hoping that the insane chucklehead would win, and a civil conflict would start in the US, with periodic transitions into a hot phase. I wanted to see how this whole pile of filth, which Columbus discovered in his time by accident, would finally split up and go down in flames”.

On November 6, even before the results of the U.S. election were announced, Lukashenka declared Trump “victorious” and later congratulated him officially, calling his victory “the embodiment of a personal feat”. After that, propagandists started to release more compliments to Trump, but emphasizing Lukashenka’s “shrewdness” and “political experience.” MP Vadzim Hihin claimed that Lukashenka “became the first politician to call things by their names” and his assessment of the U.S. election results was allegedly picked up by “all world agencies”. He was echoed by SB columnist Anton Papou: “The Belarusian leader called Trump “victorious” even in the morning after the vote – this again confirmed the significance of the President’s colossal international experience and his understanding of political processes, which allows Minsk to build a balanced policy in a multipolar world.”

On November 7, Lukashenka congratulated Belarusians on the October Revolution Day. He noted that although Belarusians chose an independent path in the XXI century, they have preserved “the enduring reference points of the Soviet era: from the ideals of social equality and humanism to the values of peace and friendship of peoples. This theme was developed by propagandist Andrei Mukavozchyk: “Let’s put the question extremely pragmatically: what, in fact, did the Great October Socialist Revolution give to Belarusians? Is there something for us to remember and celebrate? Of course, there is – simply because the revolution gave us, Belarusians, Belarus.” It is worth noting that of all the former Soviet republics, only Belarus celebrates November 7; Mukavozchyk explains this phenomenon by the fact that “someone has to carry the banner, even if everyone around is tired”: “Somewhere, we must keep trying to build a socially oriented country, taking the best from the attempt to build a state of social justice, right? Our Belarusian leader speaks about it at the international level. We are building such a country here in Belarus”.

On the same day, Lukashenka publicly commented on the results of the U.S. presidential election, calling Trump a “mighty man” because he was “shot at, put under pressure, threatened to be put in jail,” but he won anyway. He recalled the U.S. politician’s pre-election promise to end all wars and said that if he succeeded in doing so, the Belarusian authorities would nominate him for the Nobel Prize. At the same time, he admitted that ending the war in Ukraine depends not only on Trump: “…it is not a unilateral process. It must be negotiated and maybe not only with Russia. It concerns so many countries.” The dictator urged his opponents to take the example of the U.S. Democrats, who after the defeat did not call on their supporters to go out to protests or “go to the authorities with an axe.” He once again said that Belarus is ready to contribute to the establishment of peace and expressed confidence that in the future, the EU will cooperate with Belarus and Russia to combine their technologies with Russian resources: “It will happen someday, you’ll see. Today Germany has started to stagger. If this Scholz is thrown out of office, Germany will come to its senses. Cheap gas, cheap energy resources, the world’s leading economy, the world’s miracle – where are they today? Down below their knees.”

Best regards,
iSANS team