Belarus Review by iSANS — November 10, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 3 and 9 November at least eight Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarusian airspace. There have been no reports that any of them fell or were destroyed. Notably, all of these overflights occurred on the night of 8 November, during Russia’s large-scale strike campaign against Ukraine; the Ukrainian Air Force reported a total of 458 drones of various types that night.

From 2 to 5 November, Belarus hosted a delegation from the Iranian Air Force. The visit opened with a meeting between Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich and Commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force Hamid Vahedi. The sides reviewed Belarus–Iran ties and outlined avenues to deepen cooperation in air force and air-defence spheres. The Iranian delegation also visited the Military Academy, air force units and familiarised itself with modern samples of electronic-warfare equipment.

On 4–5 November, a command-level training assembly was held at the Lepel training area. The event aimed at building a common understanding of sequencing and methods for training military staff and forces in the new training year. On day one, participants were shown modern approaches to force preparation: counter-UAV training, casualty evacuation using a robotic platform, forest-combat training with small tactical groups and motorised equipment, mine clearance using robots, and other innovations. Day two covered doctrinal and planning issues, including the basics of crisis-response operations, technical and logistical support for force groupings, and the procedures for preparing reserves for force generation and reinforcement.

On 4 November, the Smarhon border detachment opened the Kreivantsy border outpost complex. Open sources note that a checkpoint at Kreivantsy guarded the state border as far back as 1991; in February 2025 a decision was taken to expand personnel and upgrade the post to a full border outpost. The unit has been housed in a converted former school building. The Kreivantsy outpost now secures more than 20 km of the Belarus–Lithuania frontier. In total, between 2021 and 2025, Belarus has built or fully modernised 13 border outposts (most in Gomel Region on the Ukrainian border); at least four more outposts remain under construction (all on the Ukrainian border).

On 5 November, the State Military-Industrial Committee (Goskomvoenprom) published photos of modernised 9A33-2B tracked combat vehicles from the Osa surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, rolling out of a production shop “en route to the customer.” The images show at least four combat vehicles — a full battery set. The Osa modernisation is being carried out in Barysaw at the 2566th Radio-Electronic Weapons Repair Plant. The equipment is likely destined for the Belarusian Armed Forces: unofficial reports in 2024 indicated planned deliveries of upgraded Osa systems to the 740th SAM regiment. An official handover to troops can be expected soon. The Osa systems remain a backbone of short-range field air defence in the Belarusian Ground Forces, currently serving with the 62nd and 740th SAM regiments (Ground Forces) and the 147th SAM regiment (Special Operations Forces).

On 4 November, in the TV programme “This is Different” on Belarus-1, Deputy Head of the General Staff Faculty at the Military Academy Andrei Bahadziel stated that the Oreshnik missile system was already in Belarus. He based this assertion on official statements that Oreshnik would enter combat duty in December 2025: “Combat duty means the system is ready to perform combat tasks — it is, so to speak, a matter of pressing the button. Given that we talk about December, one can safely assume the system is already on the territory of the Republic of Belarus,” Bahadziel said.

From 3 to 7 November, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya paid a working visit to Australia and New Zealand — the first trip by a representative of democratic Belarus to the region. The purpose of the visit was to strengthen international support for Belarusian democratic forces, develop ties with regional governments, and engage with the Belarusian diaspora. In Australia, Tsikhanouskaya held talks in Canberra with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, as well as with representatives of parliament, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and think tanks including ASPI and ANU. Discussions focused on support for independent media, sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and Russia, and the creation of a parliamentary group “For Democratic Belarus.” Special attention was given to cooperation with trade unions and the academic community: Tsikhanouskaya delivered speeches at the Australian Institute of International Affairs and Swinburne University.

In New Zealand, she met with Foreign Minister Winston Peters to discuss support for Belarusian civil society, assistance to victims of repression, and the country’s possible accession to the International Humanitarian Fund for Repressed Belarusians. Speaking at the Institute of International Affairs and Victoria University of Wellington, Tsikhanouskaya underscored the connection between Belarusians’ struggle for freedom and the global defence of democratic values.

The visit resulted in a set of practical cooperation priorities: greater participation of Australia and New Zealand in international initiatives on Belarus, continued support for media and civil society, protection of Belarusians from persecution, and regional engagement in sanctions and humanitarian coordination programmes.

Washington continues to develop a special communication channel with the Lukashenka regime, focused on humanitarian issues and bilateral relations. On 4 November, the U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) issued General License No. 12, authorising transactions involving the Belarusian presidential aircraft fleet (EW-001PA, EW-001PB, EW-001PH) and removing Belavia from the sanctions list. On 9 November, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the appointment of John Coale as Special Envoy to Belarus. In his statement, Trump said Coale had secured the release of 100 prisoners and was negotiating the release of 50 more. The president thanked Lukashenka for “considering the release of detainees,”.

Following Lithuania’s closure of its border with Belarus on 31 October, after a series of incidents involving meteorological balloons and smuggling drones, the situation has evolved into a medium-intensity hybrid crisis. Belarus refused to reopen the Šalčininkai crossing point to allow Lithuanian trucks to leave, citing Vilnius’s unilateral actions to close the border checkpoints for the passage of vehicles, goods and people. Around 5,000 Lithuanian trucks and trailers remain stranded in Belarus, some at risk of confiscation for alleged customs violations. In response, Vilnius is considering restricting rail transport of Belarusian cargo and partially offsetting losses using frozen Belarusian assets.

At the same time, Lithuanian authorities initiated EU-level consultations on a new sanctions package against Minsk, intended to “align the Belarusian regime with the sanctions framework imposed on Russia.” Finance Minister Krištupas Vaitiekūnas and European Commissioner Maria Luísa Albuquerque confirmed the start of consultations to tighten restrictions and combat evasion schemes through third countries. Discussions in Vilnius also include a potential U.S. request to use the “new communication channel” with Minsk to resolve the issue of stranded trucks. Conservative leader Laurynas Kasčiūnas stated that the recent “warming” between Washington and Minsk could be “used in Lithuania’s interests — to retrieve the vehicles and halt the launch of aerial objects.”

Belarus, for its part, through the Foreign Ministry and State Customs Committee, placed full responsibility for the crisis on Lithuania, urging it to “revoke the illegal decision to close the border” and resume normal border operations. Under Lukashenka’s instruction and with oversight by the Security Council and Interior Ministry, the vehicles were ordered to gather at border crossings and were placed under guard. Lukashenka publicly claimed that the trucks were “guarded at Lithuania’s expense,” with drivers charged €120 per day for parking. He warned that if the issue were not resolved within days, Minsk would proceed with confiscation “in accordance with the law.” Lukashenka also linked the resolution of the crisis to upcoming talks with a U.S. delegation, remarking: “I have a feeling they [the Americans] had a hand in this.” Thus, Lukashenka appears to be tying the resolution of the border crisis to equal-status negotiations and a broader settlement of border relations. The Lithuanian side rejects this format outright. According to the Belarusian MFA, Lithuania addressed its communications to the Lida Border Detachment, which lacks the authority to negotiate border policy — a move interpreted by Minsk as Vilnius’s unwillingness to engage in direct political dialogue.

The National Legal Internet Portal has published the draft Law “On the Republican Budget for 2026.” The document reflects the regime’s attempt to balance growing expenditures with a reduced deficit amid stagnant revenues and limited external financing. The total budget volume exceeds last year’s figure by roughly one-third. Expenditures are set at $19.7 billion (BYN 58.7 billion), revenues at $18.3 billion (BYN 54.4 billion), with a deficit of 7.4% of GDP (compared to 9.75% in 2025).

Major expenditure categories:

·      General government activities — $9.14 billion (BYN 27.2 billion), including inter-budgetary transfers ($4.7 billion) and public debt servicing ($2.02 billion).

·      National economy — $3.21 billion (BYN 9.55 billion).

·      Law enforcement and security — $2.25 billion (BYN 6.7 billion).

·      National defence — $1.52 billion (BYN 4.52 billion).

·      Social policy — $1.23 billion (BYN 3.67 billion).

·      Healthcare — $1.11 billion (BYN 3.3 billion).

·      Education — $0.85 billion (BYN 2.53 billion).

National defence:

In 2026, defence spending will total $1.52 billion (BYN 4.52 billion) — up 15% in USD terms, but BYN 202 million lower than in the 2025 budget. Of this, $1.42 billion (BYN 4.23 billion) will go directly to the Armed Forces, and $53 million (BYN 169 million) to mobilisation preparedness, where funding has increased. The Ministry of Defence remains the main disbursing authority.

At the same time, spending on internal security and law-enforcement agencies (BYN 6.7 billion) remains higher than defence, confirming the regime’s continued priority on internal control over external threats.

Funding for state media is set at $66.5 million (BYN 198 million) — a 20% increase year-on-year. However, the actual cost of state propaganda is likely 15–20% higher, as the Union State Media Holding is not reflected in the budget.

Roughly $2.24 billion (BYN 6.67 billion) in revenues is listed as “non-repayable foreign assistance,” likely representing Russian compensation for its oil tax manoeuvre.

Macroeconomic projections on 2026 include:

·      GDP growth — 2.8%

·      Export growth — 3.7%

·      Investment growth — 3.1%

·      Real income growth — 4.8%

·      Inflation — up to 7%

Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn described the parameters as “highly strained,” noting the limited capacity to expand spending.

On 10 November, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting to finalise the Programme for Socio-Economic Development of Belarus 2026–2030, to be presented at the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) in December. Lukashenka demanded a “practical and realistic document without wishful thinking,” emphasising the need to link targets to available resources. Two drafts of the Programme are currently under consideration — one from the government and an alternative version from an ABPA working group headed by National Bank Chair Raman Halouchenka. The main divergence concerns policy priorities and the degree of centralisation. The government version identifies five priorities (digitalisation, regional development, infrastructure, housing, quality of life), while the working group’s draft expands the list to eight, adding defence capacity, cybersecurity, and labour productivity. Lukashenka noted the lack of consensus between the Council of Ministers and the National Bank, remarking that “two versions of the programme are on the table,” and urged their consolidation before the ABPA session. The divergence reflects intra-elite tensions within the Belarusian establishment.

The five-year plan is to be adopted at the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly on 18–19 December 2025.

On 3 November, Lukashenka signed laws ratifying six international agreements aimed at expanding cooperation with African, Asian, and Latin American states. The agreements provide for:

·      Visa-free travel for holders of diplomatic and service passports with Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Guinea-Bissau;

·      Mutual visa exemption for short-term visits with Colombia and Laos;

·      A protocol extending visa-free stays for drivers and transport crews between Belarus and Turkey to 90 days within a 180-day period (previously 30 days).

The package of agreements consolidates Minsk’s course toward diversifying external ties beyond Europe, symbolising a strategic shift toward the “Global South” and a search for economic and political partners outside Western structures.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported that during October, 78 people were recognised as political prisoners. The number of political prisoners has reached 1,237. At least 35 political prisoners were released in October after fully serving their sentences. Thirty-four people were sentenced in politically motivated cases, among them 17 defendants in the cases related to “yard chats”.

As of 4 November, at least 182 political prisoners are at particular risk behind bars, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. Among these: 66 people have a serious health condition due to lack of medical care; 37 people are in difficult family circumstances (single parents, parents with many children, or families with both parents in custody); 25 people are over 60 years old and with health problems; nine people have mental disorders; eight people have a disability status. The oldest political prisoner is 77-year-old Mikhail Lyapeyka from Mahileu, who was sent for compulsory treatment in a psychiatric hospital for insulting Lukashenka. This number also includes political prisoners who are discriminated against on various grounds, for example, they are held incommunicado or have not been released from prison, although their terms have ended.

Repression in Belarus affects not only political and civil life, but also demography. Thousands of prisoners, fear of repression, forced emigration and broken families are creating a new crisis, the consequences of which are already being felt. Experts believe that without the release of people from prison and the restoration of their rights, the situation will only worsen. There is an increase in emigration sentiment, especially among young people: “People who are not in prison, but are monitoring the fate of political prisoners, decide to leave the country or postpone childbearing until calmer times,” says economist Lev Lvovski. “Currently, Belarus has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe. The only worse is in Ukraine, where there is a war,” Lvovski stressed, — “This indicator is falling very fast. The rate of population ageing is also increasing.”

The Hrodna Regional Court issued a verdict in the case of nine residents of Vaukavysk. Six women and three men were tried accused of “participating in an extremist formation” for participating in “yard chats”. Each was sentenced to imprisonment for two years and six months to two years and ten months and fines of 800 basic units (33,600 rubles or about 8,500 Euro). The trial began on 11 August 2025.

The Hrodna Regional Court sentenced seven residents of Smarhon to imprisonment and fines in the “yard chats” case. All of them were participants in a private chat called “VILIA”. Uladzimir Kaulouski, Volha Miranenka, Maret Valyuk, Natallia Pupkevich, Sviatlana Kashkel and Marharyta Numava were sentenced to two years of imprisonment and fined 800 basic units (33,600 rubles or approximately 8,500 Euro). Cancer patient Lyubov Valyuk was sentenced to three years of restriction of freedom and a fine of 500 basic units (21,000 rubles or approximately 5,300 Euro). In October 2024, KGB officers conducted a raid among activists across the country, looking for those who might be involved in the creation of yard chats. On 29 October 2024, the KGB recognised several chats as “extremist formations”. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, at least 34 people across the country are involved in the “yard chats” case.

Almost 2,000 non-governmental organisations have been closed in Belarus after 2020, according to Lawtrend monitoring. At least 1977 non-profit organisations, including public associations, political parties, trade unions, foundations, institutions, and associations, have ceased their activities. More than 100 representatives of civil society organisations are in custody, organisations and initiatives are recognised as “extremist formations”, detentions and interrogations of activists continue, Lawtrend wrote. On 6 July 2025, the re-registration of religious organisations ended in Belarus. The Belarusian Greek Catholic Church was unable to register as a religious association. At the same time, the process of registering new organisations has intensified, Lawtrend reported. In October 2025, at least six public associations were registered, among them the Jewish Cultural Society Shorashim, an association of people with diabetes, several sports organisations and the Military-Patriotic Club Rusichi.

Lawyer Katsyaryna Zhautanoha was sentenced to a restriction of freedom for “inciting hostility”. The nature of the charges, as well as the exact verdict, are unknown. The law firm in which Zhautanoha worked specialised in business consulting, but in 2020 it actively helped detainees at Akrestsina detention centre free of charge. Zhautanoha was a pro bono lawyer for those who were imprisoned in administrative cases, and also defended political prisoner Stsyapan Latypau, director of the Belarbo company. In July 2021, Zhautanoha was stripped of her lawyer’s licence due to an alleged “systematic violation of the requirements and conditions of practising law”. After that, she worked at the Mayak correctional centre for children with special needs as an administrator.

On 6 November, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added 15 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. There are now 5,957 names on the list. The updated list includes 52-year-old Julia Fenner, a British citizen, who was sentenced to seven years of imprisonment on political charges in August 2025. She was one of the 52 prisoners pardoned on 11 September . Next to her name on the list, it is noted that she is “serving her sentence”.

Upon his return from Poland, the founder of the music school Midi.by Uladzimir Patapenka was detained. The arrest took place a few days after his return from Warsaw. It was reported that it was related to the Belarusian Hajun case.

The Lukashenka regime regularly subjects representatives of certain professions to political repression, including “disloyal” lawyers, teachers, and journalists. Recently, information has appeared about the repression of a new group, anti-crisis managers. They are being massively stripped of their licenses based on information from the state security agencies. In August 2025, an updated version of the Regulation on the Procedure for Certification and Re-certification of Individuals for Compliance with the Professional Qualification Requirements for a Temporary (Anti-crisis) Manager was approved by Council of Ministers Resolution No. 433. According to Paragraph 5 of this document, only those who do not have “facts of committing acts against the order of administration and public safety, anti-state manifestations in the workplace, etc.” are allowed to be certified. Last week, the decision of the Attestation Commission of the Department for Rehabilitation and Bankruptcy was published in the Unified State Register of Bankruptcy Information, according to which the certificates of 19 anti-crisis managers  were terminated with reference to the ninth paragraph of the first part of Paragraph 5 of the Regulation, which mentions “information received by the Department from state security agencies about the commission of an act by an attested person that poses a threat to national security”. According to available information, 36 people were stripped of their certificates in just over two months. This number is particularly striking, bearing in mind that there are only about 150 people who actually work as anti-crisis managers in Belarus.

New Zealand called on the Belarusian authorities to respect human rights. This was announced by New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Winston Peters, following a meeting with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. “The Minister met with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and discussed New Zealand’s support for a free and democratic Belarus. New Zealand continues to call on the Belarusian regime to ensure respect for fundamental human rights for all Belarusians,” — read the message posted on the X network.

The United States intends to release 50 more political prisoners in Belarus. On 9 November, Donald Trump announced the nomination of John Coale as special envoy for Belarus. “He has already successfully negotiated the release of 100 prisoners and is going to release 50 more,” Trump wrote on the Truth Social network. In September 2025, John Coale led the American delegation during the negotiations in Belarus, which resulted in the release of 52 prisoners, including 14 foreign nationals.

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Best regards, iSANS team