Belarus Review by iSANS — May 4, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 27 April and 3 May six Russian UAV flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace. Air Force duty units of the Belarusian armed forces were deployed to intercept them. No reports of crashes or shootdowns were recorded.

On 28 April, Minister of Defence Viktar Khrenin took part in a meeting of defence ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The Ministry of Defence reported this. In his remarks, he noted the deterioration of the international military-political situation and rising tensions, emphasising the growing role of force and sanctions instruments in global politics. Against this background, Belarus positions itself as a supporter of maintaining international security, restoring dialogue, and strengthening confidence-building measures with regard to the interests of all states. At the same time, he stated that despite declared commitment to de-escalation, Belarus is compelled to develop its military potential and strengthen regional security in response to existing external threats. On the margins of the forum, Khrenin held meetings with the defence ministers of China and India, as well as with a representative of Iran’s Ministry of Defence.

On 28 April, the first Belarusian–Russian meeting within the framework of a mechanism for regular bilateral consultations on export control took place. This was reported by the State Military-Industrial Committee. The sides discussed improving control mechanisms in foreign trade operations involving dual-use and controlled goods within mutual trade. Following the meeting, several documents on information exchange in the field of export control were signed.

A command-staff exercise with units of the 19th mechanised brigade is underway at training ranges and terrain sites. The Ministry of Defence reported this on 29 April. The exercise focused on conducting special combat operations against illegal armed formations and sabotage groups. A distinctive feature was that activities were not limited to training ranges — units operated in unfamiliar terrain. The exercise also examined issues of “replenishment of manpower resources.” On 30 April, it was reported that reservists called up from the reserve for participation in the exercise had completed their training assembly.

On 2 May, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “rather specific activity” had been observed on the Belarus–Ukraine border from the Belarusian side the previous day. No further details were provided.

Later, on 3 May, Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, stated that border guards expect provocations and attempts to destabilise the situation on the Belarus–Ukraine border, without specifying their nature. “I cannot disclose everything openly now, but we can expect or prepare for attempts to destabilise the situation along our border — we do not rule out provocations,” he said. According to Demchenko, on the evening of 2 May a balloon entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus, used as a signal relay for UAVs deployed by Russia. Ukrainian monitoring channels also reported the balloon incursion. It remains unclear whether it was launched from Belarusian territory or entered in transit from Russia.

Apparently, Zelenskyy’s statement was not related to the balloon: he reported the “specific activity” earlier on 2 May, while information about the balloon emerged later that evening.

On 3 May, in comments to state media, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Andrei Lukyanovich stated that the military records airspace violations almost daily. According to him, this is primarily due to Belarus’s “complex geographical position,” including salient areas on the southern and eastern directions towards Ukraine and Russia. Lukyanovich noted that UAVs flying near Belarusian borders may deviate from their course, and that electronic warfare systems also influence their trajectories. He emphasised that if UAVs pose a threat to critical infrastructure, they are destroyed.

On 1–2 May, the 5th Conference of Belarusians Worldwide took place in Warsaw, opened by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. In her speech, she outlined key priorities for democratic forces and the diaspora in the near term: support for released political prisoners, legalisation of Belarusians abroad, protection against transnational repression, support for Belarusian culture, and participation in the elections to the new Coordination Council. Tsikhanouskaya noted that over the past year practical progress had been achieved on documentation and legalisation of Belarusians in several countries, a system of assistance for released prisoners had been established, and international attention to Belarus had been maintained. She placed particular emphasis on preparing for further releases of political prisoners and the need to prevent a “freezing” of the situation following limited humanitarian steps by the regime. The conference also announced the launch of the Krynica platform for resource-sharing among Belarusian organisations and initiatives. Tsikhanouskaya further announced a Belarusian youth conference in Stockholm on 11–12 May, a Congress of Political Prisoners in Vilnius on 21–22 May, and the Kościuszko Forum in Gdańsk in early June.

On 28 April, a detainee exchange under the “5-for-5” formula took place at the Belarus–Poland border, resulting in the release of journalist and Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut. The exchange was the culmination of a complex negotiation process that had begun in September 2025. According to the Polish side and Belarusian state media, Belarus handed over Poczobut, Carmelite monk Grzegorz Gawel, and Tomasz Beroza, convicted on espionage charges, while Russia transferred two Moldovan intelligence officers to Moldova. Poland handed over to Russia archaeologist Alexander Butyagin, whose extradition to Ukraine had been authorised earlier by a court in Poland , and transferred to Belarus Uladzislau Nadzieika, who had been detained by Poland’s Internal Security Agency in September 2025 and accused of participating in the activities of a foreign intelligence service against Poland. Moldova transferred to Belarus Aleksandru Balan, former deputy director of Moldova’s Information and Security Service, who collaborated with the Belarusian KGB, and transferred to Russia Nina Popova, wife of a Russian military serviceman in Transnistria. The operation was prepared by the Belarusian KGB and Poland’s Intelligence Agency with the involvement of the United States, Moldova, Romania, and Russia. Poland’s minister-coordinator of special services, Tomasz Siemoniak, stated that Warsaw had not been certain of success until the last moment, and that the key condition was for Poczobut to cross the border first. According to Siemoniak, the exchange marked an important moment in Polish–Belarusian relations, though further developments will depend on Lukashenka’s next steps and the broader U.S.–Belarus track.

Special Envoy of the U.S. President John Coale commented on the prisoners exchange on the X network, saying that he expects to achieve the release of more political prisoners from Belarus within the next month, adding that the lifting of additional sanctions from Minsk is always possible if this happens. At a press conference organised by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, John Coale stated that he plans to visit Belarus again ‘in two or three weeks’ and emphasised that the U.S. is committed to securing the release of all political prisoners in Belarus.

“Poland will continue to make efforts to free all political prisoners in Belarus. At the same time, Warsaw highly appreciates the efforts of the United States to curb Minsk’s hybrid pressure on the EU,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said at a press conference dedicated to the exchange. Sikorski also stressed that the EU must remain united in its approach to Belarus, while “Poland will continue its joint efforts to free all political prisoners”. “We will always respond to gestures of goodwill with goodwill. (…) But this depends on President Lukashenka’s policy. I do not want to make excessive promises, because we have already experienced such false ‘dawns’. But we believe this is a step in the right direction,” Sikorski said at the press conference.

During the week of 27 April – 3 May, the situation on the Belarus–Lithuania and Belarus–Poland directions remained tense but manageable. On the Lithuanian section, 50 attempts to illegally cross the border were recorded on 27 April — the highest since the start of the year. On the Latvian direction, there were 1,502 attempts between 1 and 29 April, while on the Polish section only 14 attempts were recorded over the same period, and none after 17 April. At the same time, Lithuania maintained strict conditions for potential political contacts with Minsk: cessation of meteorological balloon launches, return of Lithuanian trucks without additional sanctions risks, and a halt to irregular migration. Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė stated that Vilnius plans to discuss possible contacts with Belarus with Poland in June, taking into account Warsaw’s “certain contacts” with Minsk and the process of releasing political prisoners. In parallel, Lithuania is strengthening internal security measures: an investigation into preparations for political assassinations is underway, involving 13 suspects, including Belarusian citizens, while the organisers are believed to have acted in the interests of Russia’s GRU.

On 30 April, Lukashenka held a meeting on implementing the “One District – One Project” initiative, effectively summarising recent regional visits and discussions on the development of Prypiat Polesia, the south-east of Mahiliou region, land reclamation, and land use. According to him, 144 out of 217 projects have been implemented, with around $1.24 billion (BYN 3.5 billion) invested and more than 6,000 jobs created, though controllers have raised concerns about half of the projects. Lukashenka acknowledged that the previous approach had been overly formalistic, with the main indicator often being the absorption of funds rather than economic results. He called for revising the programme under new conditions, prioritising not just job creation but enterprises with output in high demand, import substitution, export potential, and profitability. Following the meeting, a transition to a new “Regional Initiative” mechanism was approved, under which projects will originate from districts and regions and proceed through the Ministry of Economy and banks. New incentives were also endorsed, including compensation of capital expenditures after project completion — 15% in industrial centres and up to 35% in agricultural areas. Lukashenka also reiterated the need to reduce population outflow to Minsk, develop district centres and agro-towns, and described 2026 as a “test of professional suitability” for officials regarding livestock mortality.

On the same day, he held a telephone conversation with the President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian. The Iranian side briefed Minsk on the situation in the Persian Gulf and negotiations with the United States, with both sides noting that a lack of trust remains the main obstacle to peaceful agreements.

In the first quarter, Belarus’s foreign trade deficit in goods decreased by 16.4% year-on-year to USD 1.4 billion. Exports grew by 20.3% and imports by 14.6%. The improvement was driven primarily by March, when exports increased by 26.7% and the trade deficit declined by 23%. Against this background, more favourable GDP data also emerged: the economy contracted by 0.4% in the first quarter, compared to a 1.2% decline in January–February. While these figures allow the regime to project confidence, they do not change the broader picture of economic cooling: industrial output still declined by 3.4% over the quarter, and part of the improvement may be linked to administrative pressure on enterprises and export expansion despite low profitability.

An additional signal illustrating the state’s priorities came from the adjustment of the State Investment Programme for 2026: of the additional USD 38 million allocated, the largest increase went to the security bloc, including USD 15.2 million for the Ministry of Defence for rental housing, construction of a military town, and a training ground in the Homiel region.

According to the statistical publication “Minsk in Figures,” foreign investment in the Belarusian capital reached USD 4.07 billion in 2025. CIS countries, primarily Russia, remain the main source, but among non-CIS states the most notable growth came from the United Arab Emirates, whose investments in Minsk increased to USD 367.9 million — more than four times higher than in 2022. This growth coincides with intensified contacts between Minsk and the Gulf states. On 22–24 April, Viktar Lukashenka visited Oman and the UAE as a “special envoy,” delivering written messages from Lukashenka and discussing economic and investment cooperation. The format of the visit, involving Lukashenka’s family member, indicates the use of a personalised channel to promote the regime’s external economic interests.

On 29 April, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a new sanctions package targeting 11 Belarusian legal entities and 16 Belarusian individuals linked to facilitating Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The restrictions cover companies producing components for 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells, equipment for repairing Russian armoured vehicles, components for military equipment, and entities involved in servicing Russian aircraft.

The list of sanctioned individuals includes Viktar Sheiman, Viktar and Dzmitry Lukashenka, Pavel Muraveika, Aliaksandr Rakhmanau, and others. The Office of the President of Ukraine stated that Sheiman is involved in sanctions evasion schemes, while Lukashenka’s sons are linked to exports, dual-use goods supplies, and re-exports via Belarus. Zelenskyy noted that the sanctions should serve as a signal to partners “where pressure should be applied” to reduce the intensity of the war, prevent Belarus’s involvement in it, and deter operations against other European states.

Following his release from prison, journalist and Polish community activist Andrzej Poczobut remains a central figure on the Polish–Belarusian agenda. During the exchange, he received his Belarusian passport; previously, most political prisoners expelled from Belarus had not been given their documents. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met Poczobut at the border crossing. According to Andżelika Borys, Poczobut was told that he had no restrictions on returning to Belarus. On 1 May, he returned to social media, posting a photo from a Warsaw hospital where he is undergoing examinations after nearly five years in detention. On 2 May, Poczobut and Borys were appointed to the Council for the Polish Diaspora and Poles Abroad under the President of Poland. It was previously reported that Poczobut, who had been sentenced to eight years in a strict-regime prison, refused to write a petition for a pardon addressed to Lukashenka, one of the conditions of which was his agreement to leave the country. Poczobut spent 1,860 days in prison. In the first few months following his arrest, he was placed in a section of the prison where those sentenced to death were held. According to Poczobut, this was an attempt to “break him down and intimidate him”. In prison, he lost almost 20 kilograms. For two years, he was held in a cell where the window was left open all year round. “I had nothing for 167 days in solitary confinement. I slept on bare wooden planks,” said Poczobut in an interview to Gazeta Wyborcza.

On 3 May, Polish President Karol Nawrocki presented the Order of the White Eagle to Andrzej Poczobut, who was released from a Belarusian prison where he had been held since March 2021. The President awarded Poczobut in November 2025, “in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the cause of Poles in Belarus, in particular, his struggle for human rights and his unwavering position in opposing the manifestations of resurgent totalitarian regimes.” Poczobut, receiving a high state award, said: “I don’t feel like a hero; for me, the heroes of this story are, first of all, the soldiers of the Armia Krajowa, the commanders of the Armia Krajowa, the people I was accused of glorifying”. He stressed that these soldiers and commanders defended the independence and freedom of the country with weapons in their hands until the last moment of their lives, but their memory is still being desecrated in Belarus. “Compared to them, I’m just an ordinary person trying to behave decently at an indecent time,” Poczobut said. He added that he considered the award as a symbolic tribute to the work of all members of the Union of Poles in Belarus, the organisation to which he belongs. Poczobut also thanked the Polish authorities for their efforts to free him from prison.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) welcomed the release of Andrzej Poczobut. “RSF welcomes the release of Polish-Belarusian journalist Andrzej Poczobut, who was arbitrarily detained for more than five years. While this is excellent news, his release came as part of a prisoner exchange, illustrating the Lukashenka regime’s continued instrumentalisation of political prisoners. RSF calls on the Belarusian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release the 21 other journalists still detained. » said Jeanne Cavelier, Head of the RSF Eastern Europe and Central Asia Desk.

Raman Ramanau, a former political prisoner, died less than a year after his release. In December 2023, he was sentenced to two years of imprisonment for insulting Lukashenka and insulting a government official. He was released in August 2025.

From 15 to 16 April, a special “Search” operation was held in the CIS countries, in which security forces searched for wanted persons, missing persons, defendants and debtors in civil and economic matters, the newspaper of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus reported. As a result of the operation, more than 270 people wanted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus were detained. Of these, 150 were detained in Russia. Among them were those who were accused of “extremist activities”.

On 23 April, at least 12 women were detained in Navapalotsk. Their homes were searched. Eight of them were released the same evening. “One of the detainees was found to have subscriptions to “extremist” information resources, she was detained for three days and sentenced to an administrative fine. As of 28 April, at least two women remained behind bars,” human rights defenders reported. All the women were ordered not to leave the town and not to disclose information related to the detention. According to several other sources, the detentions were related to cultural projects and resulted from the fact that on 9 April, the Interior Ministry recognised a number of cultural initiatives as “extremist formations”. It also became known that on 23 April, three women were detained in Barysau, and several more in Slonim, Brest and Zhodzina.

The security forces searched the home of a student of the European Humanities University’s correspondence course. He was forced to write an application for expulsion, and his Lithuanian residence permit (plastic card) was cut up. Another EHU correspondence course student was fired from her job in Belarus immediately after the university was recognised as an “extremist formation”.

The Reform.news website was recognised as an “extremist formation”. The decision was made by the Ministry of Internal Affairs on 28 April. Information about Reform.news appeared in the relevant list of the Ministry. The list includes the website address, its mirror, social networks, e-mail address, as well as the “logo in the form of the inscription ‘Reformation’ in black on a white-red-white background”.

On 30 April, Belarusian human rights defenders recognised ten more people as political prisoners. They were detained or convicted in connection with interaction with “extremist groups” and the exercise of freedom of expression, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. As of 30 April, there are 841 political prisoners in Belarus.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported the initiation of a criminal case against Uladzimir Tselyapun, a 70-year-old human rights defender from Mazyr. On 30 April, he was recognised as a political prisoner. Tselyapun was taken into custody in early April. Presumably, at first he was held in the temporary detention facility of the Mazyr District Police Department, then he was transferred to SIZO-3. The details of the charges are unknown, but, according to human rights defenders, the case is political in nature.

Yauhen Skochka was sentenced by the Homel Regional Court to three years of imprisonment for facilitating extremist activities, slandering and insulting Lukashenka, and discrediting the Republic of Belarus. He is in custody in SIZO-3 in Homel. His name is on the list of “extremists” published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Skochka is an Orthodox believer, a father of many children, and a lawyer. In the past, he was one of the leaders of the Malady Front youth movement and an active participant in the Belarusian Christian Democracy party, but in the mid-2000s he retired from politics and has been engaged in the construction of churches and providing legal assistance to people.

The charges, on the basis of which Hleb Panasyuk, a resident of Svyatlagorsk, was convicted at the beginning of the year and sentenced to five years of imprisonment, became known. He was convicted of participating in an armed formation or armed conflict on the territory of a foreign state, as well as for recruiting and training persons for such participation. Panasyuk’s friends claim that he was subscribed to the channel of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, but he was definitely not involved in recruiting or training potential fighters. Panasyuk returned to Belarus from Poland on 8 October  2025, to visit his parents. In December, it became known that he was in custody in SIZO No. 3 in Homel. Prior to that, he was in the Homel temporary detention facility, where he was placed under administrative arrest.

The 5th Conference of the Belarusian Diaspora was held in Warsaw on 1-2 May. In her opening remarks, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called for attention to be paid to transnational repression. She noted that transnational repression is one of the key challenges of our time. “The regime continues its war against Belarusians, and we cannot feel safe even abroad. The map of safe countries has become an indispensable tool for many Belarusians when traveling. Over the past year, we have had to save dozens of people from extradition, persecution through Interpol and other forms of transnational repression. … Systematic work is needed here. Active protection is required not only from politicians, but also from the diaspora. Without strong international pressure, the regime will not change its policy. It will continue to create more and more threats to our community. And so, as always, we need to be patient, roll up our sleeves and work, work and work,” she said.

Croatia donated 100,000 Euro to the International Humanitarian Fund for victims of repression in Belarus. “Croatia’s contribution will help political prisoners and their families who continue to suffer from repression by the regime,” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said after a meeting with Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić Radman. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the Three Seas Initiative summit in Dubrovnik. Tsikhanouskaya thanked Grlić Radman for his support and solidarity with the Belarusian people.

Belarus ranked 165^th in the World Press Freedom Index 2026, compiled by Reporters Without Borders (RSF). 180 countries were represented in the ranking. Belarus is located between Yemen and Myanmar. Belarus ranked 166^th in the 2025 Index, 167^th in 2024, 157^th in 2023, and 153^rd in 2022. The report noted that Belarus uses an approach where “national security measures are used as a tool to restrict freedom of the press,” as it is done in Russia (172 place), Nicaragua (168), and Egypt (169). The report separately emphasised that in Russia and in Belarus, journalists who wanted to continue working in the profession were forced to emigrate. At the same time, the prosecutions did not stop when a journalist left the country.

On 3 May, World Press Freedom Day, the Embassies of Great Britain, Sweden and the EU Delegation to Belarus called for the release of the detained journalists. “On #WorldPressFreedomDay, we underscore the essential role of free, independent media and the courage of journalists. In the latest press freedom index, Belarus ranked 165th – among the worst globally. Journalists face harassment, imprisonment, and persecution for speaking the truth. We call for a free press in Belarus and the release of all detained journalists,” the statement on Facebook said.

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Best regards, iSANS team