Belarus Review by iSANS — May 26, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 19 and 25 May, at least 17 Russian drones of the “Shahed” type were recorded in the Belarusian airspace. Most of them later returned to Ukrainian territory, while the fate of the others remains unknown. No reports have been received regarding the destruction of drones in the Belarusian airspace.

On 19 May, a decree was signed relieving Major General Ihar Kazlou, Deputy Commander of the troops of the North-Western Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Belarus, of his post. The officer was discharged from military service into the reserve due to age.

From 21 to 24 May, the 12^th International Exhibition of Arms and Military Equipment, MILEX-2025, was held in Minsk. More than 150 companies from Belarus, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and India reportedly presented their products at the exhibition, one and a half times more than in 2023. Over 750 samples of Belarusian-produced weaponry, military, and special-purpose equipment were showcased across the exhibition areas. According to the Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry, Dzmitry Pantus, the total value of contracts signed at the exhibition exceeded 390 million US dollars, setting a new record and surpassing the results of MILEX-2023. Among the novelties of the Belarusian military-industrial complex, the reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle “Dzhulietta” is worth noting. It has been developed to carry out specialised tasks such as target search, detection, and precise targeting. Notable features of the “Dzhulietta” include vertical take-off and landing, a payload capacity of up to 50 kilograms, and the ability to remain airborne for up to 10 hours. Another innovation presented was the SKY-TRUCK helicopter-type unmanned system. It has a payload capacity of up to 500 kilograms and a flight range of 360 kilometres with a 200-kilogram load, enabling it to deliver cargo over long distances.

On 21 May, the news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran reported that Uladzimir Kupryjaniuk, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate and Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, was on a visit to the country. During a meeting between the Commander of the Iranian Army, Abdolrahim Mousavi, and Uladzimir Kupryjaniuk, the ongoing development of military cooperation between the two countries was emphasised. The importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation in the areas of personnel training, experience exchange, and the development of military relations was also underlined. It is worth noting that the Belarusian state media and the Ministry of Defence of Belarus did not report on the visit.

On 23 May, Valery Ravenka, Head of the Department for International Military Cooperation, announced that the Head of the Missile Forces and Artillery of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Ruslan Chekhau, was visiting Iran. As part of the visit, an exchange of views took place on the trends in fire engagement and the development of means of armed struggle in modern conflicts. The Belarusian delegation also familiarised itself with the achievements of the Iranian military-industrial complex. However, on 23 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus published photographs from the MILEX-2025 exhibition, which included R. Chekhau. It is likely that information about the visit of the Belarusian military personnel to Iran was published with a delay.

On 24 May, the Minister of Defence, Viktar Khrenin, told journalists that Su-30SM2 fighter jets would be delivered to the Belarusian army in the following week (26 May to 1 June). Deliveries of Mi-35M helicopters are also expected.

On 24 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported that new recruits took the military oath in the units and military formations of the Belarusian Armed Forces. In total, about 8,000 servicemen were called up for active service and service in the reserve, more than 2,500 of them took the oath in the 72^nd Joint Training Centre.

On the International Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya delivered a heartfelt message, calling attention to the ongoing repression in Belarus. “Every year, on 21 May, my heart aches,” she said, describing the situation as a “massive tragedy” with over a thousand people — journalists, teachers, doctors, engineers, students, and pensioners — currently behind bars. “They are united by one thing: their refusal to live in lies and violence.” Tsikhanouskaya urged people not to feel powerless under the regime’s pressure and to take action. She encouraged supporters to write letters to political prisoners, support the families of detainees, and raise awareness abroad while protecting those still in Belarus. “Even a few kind words from a stranger can warm the soul and give hope,” she noted. She stressed that every act of solidarity matters and concluded with a powerful call: “Let no political prisoner remain alone. Freedom to all political prisoners!”

The International Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners in Belarus, marked on 21 May, received widespread backing across Europe and beyond. Statements were issued by governments, parliamentarians, diplomats, international organisations, and representatives of civil society. European institutions stood out in their response: the European External Action Service (EEAS) published statements on X and Facebook. Expressions of support also came from the European Parliament’s Delegation for relations with Belarus, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the ECR Group, and the Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations. Notably, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Sweden’s Ambassador to the EU, Kristina Johannesson, issued their own statements. Foreign ministries and national governments expressed solidarity through their official channels. These included the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Government of Lithuania, the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, as well as the ministries of foreign affairs of Norway, Sweden, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Further support came from the Polish Mission to the OSCE, France’s representation to the OSCE, the British Embassy in Belarus, and the Canadian Embassy in Poland. All called for the release of political prisoners and reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to democracy in Belarus. National parliaments and individual MPs also made strong personal appeals. Among them were Björn Söder (Sweden), Helge Limburg (Germany), Armin Grau (Germany), Wendy Morton (United Kingdom), Frederic Petit (France), Laurence Turner (United Kingdom), Britta Haßelmann (Germany), and Katrin Göring-Eckardt (Germany). In the United States, Congressman Steve Cohen issued a detailed statement, which was endorsed by Senator Jeanne Shaheen. International and regional organisations joined the call as well. The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe released a statement, as did prominent human rights organisations, including Article 19 Europe, Article 19 Global, Amnesty Austria, the World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT), and iSANS. Numerous diplomats and embassies also voiced their support, including Adam Halacinski (Poland), Asta Andrijauskaite (Lithuania), Katrina Kaktiņa (Latvia), and Marius Dirdal (Norway). Embassies were notably active — Lithuania in Estonia, Latvia in Belarus, Poland in Minsk, and the EU Delegation in Belarus through Ambassador Dirk Steffen Nolke. Finally, the Chamber of Deputies of Luxembourg issued a statement and posted on X, affirming: “Belarus is not forgotten in the heart of Europe”. In addition, a Holy Mass was held in Rome in honour of Belarusian political prisoners, bringing together worshippers and diplomats in a show of solidarity. The event was initiated by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in cooperation with the embassies of Lithuania and Poland to the Holy See. Tsikhanouskaya’s office was represented by an official delegation led by her advisor on international affairs, Dzianis Kuchynski. The ceremony was also attended by members of the Belarusian diaspora, including Yulia Yukhno, head of the “Talaka” initiative.

The second day of the IV Conference of the Belarusian Diaspora concluded in Warsaw on 25 May, featuring group discussions on current challenges and potential solutions. Participants took part in a panel on fundraising and a Q&A session with Belarusian politicians. At the end of the day, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya delivered a speech emphasising the resilience of Belarusians and the importance of mutual support: “Even in the most difficult conditions, we Belarusians do not lose our optimism and sense of humour — it helps us carry on.” She highlighted the strength of the Belarusian community, which, despite internal differences, continues to unite around a shared cause. “We must learn to support and praise each other for good deeds, even when we have differing political views,” she said, underlining the purpose of such conferences. On the third day, an exhibition titled “Nothing Particularly New” will open at the Museum of Free Belarus, showcasing personal belongings, letters, poems, and audio testimonies of political prisoners as a moving reflection of life behind bars and the power of solidarity.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya condemned the massive overnight aerial strike on Ukraine on 25 May and called for increased pressure on Russia. “Last night, Ukraine was attacked by more than 300 drones and missiles. Civilians were the target. Innocent people were killed. This is terror, not war. Belarusians stand with Ukraine. The response must be strong: more support for Ukraine, more pressure on Russia to stop its aggression — now,” the politician wrote on X.

Press Secretary of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Natalia Eismant, made a statement in a recent conversation with a Russian information agency TASS. She noted that Belarus continues to facilitate exchanges of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine. “All exchanges of prisoners of war and dead between Russia and Ukraine have previously been facilitated by Belarus and carried out on its territory, with the consent of the leadership of both Russia and Ukraine. We are ready to do it again,” Eismant said.

Natalia Kaliada, co-founder of the Belarus Free Theatre and representative of iSANS in the UK, met with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Also attending the meeting was Daniella Kaliada, Director of International Strategy and Cultural Diplomacy at the Theatre. During the discussion, they addressed a range of important issues, including the fate of Belarusian political prisoners, the situation of imprisoned clergy, and the need to lift visa restrictions for Belarusians while improving the system for reserving interview slots at embassies. They also discussed the reopening of the border crossing in Hrodna for Belarusian citizens and the possibility of restoring passenger rail connections. Another key point was the importance of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus. The meeting further touched on the development of Polish-Belarusian relations in the fields of culture and the arts.

The European Union plans to reduce staff at around 10 diplomatic missions abroad and lay off approximately 100 local employees. The reasons cited are budget savings and a shift in foreign policy priorities. According to a plan presented by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, some missions — such as the one in Belarus — will be downsized to a minimum, with only the ambassador and a few assistants remaining. Some staff will work remotely, which officials say effectively amounts to the closure of those offices.

More than 6,000 persons have been convicted in Belarus since the 2020 in connection with the protests. This was stated by Dzmitry Hara, Chair of the Investigative Committee, at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on 19 May. According to Hara, “the use of Nazi ideas and symbols was most vividly manifested in the modern history of Belarus during the attempted coup in 2020”. Its “instigators, and organisers”, “following the example of the Nazis and their assistants, attracted outcasts and criminals to their ranks to organise mass riots”. “One of the tools used to achieve a criminal goal was the tactics of harassment and reprisals against civil servants, law enforcement officers, military personnel, their families and loved ones. Extremist telegram resources formed hit lists of government officials and security forces. The same way the Nazis acted in the occupied territory of the Soviet Union,” said Hara. He reported that six leaders and 56 active participants of the “extremist resources” were sentenced to terms from five to 12 years of imprisonment. 77 persons were convicted on charges of high treason, collecting information about the movement of the military and donating to Belarusian military volunteers. Five leaders of the Kalinouski regiment, a military formation within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have been convicted in absentia to terms from 12 to 20 years of imprisonment. 125 individuals associated with the Kalinouski regiment are wanted, six are in custody, according to the official.

On 20 May, Belarusian human rights activists published a statement recognising five more persons as political prisoners. Human rights activists called the persecution and imprisonment of these persons politically motivated and demanded that the Belarusian authorities immediately release them and stop their persecution. They also called for the repeal of a number of articles of the Criminal Code used for political persecution, as well as the immediate release of all political prisoners and an end to repression. On 21 May, another eight persons were recognised as political prisoners. Human rights activists called for the release of these individuals and for their sentences to be reviewed. They also demanded the release of all political prisoners, a review of politically motivated sentences, and an end to political repression. Over the past five years, 3,940 persons have received the status of political prisoners in Belarus, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. Of these, 1,189 are still behind bars. More than half of the political prisoners have already served their sentences, and almost 300 have been pardoned. At least eight political prisoners have died in prison in five years. The total number of those affected by criminal prosecution for political reasons exceeds seven thousand.

Belarusian political prisoner Valyantsyn Shtermer, who served his term in colony No. 17 in Shklou, died under unclear circumstances. The exact date of his death is unknown, except that it happened in early 2025, according to information obtained by Nasha Niva from reliable sources. There is also no certainty as to whether Shtermer died in the colony or was transferred to a medical facility — either a prison hospital or a civilian one. In the context of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s dictatorship, such information is routinely concealed. At the time of his death, Valiantsin Shtermer was 61 or 62 years old. Shtermer was arrested in June 2023. He was accused of leaving eight comments against Russian aggression, in which he allegedly insulted the Russian military and incited hostility towards them. He was also accused of insulting Lukashenka and the involvement in a certain “extremist formation”. On 4 October, 2023, he was sentenced to five years of imprisonment. Two months later, the Court of Appeal approved the verdict. Shtermer was included in the lists of “extremists” and “terrorists”. Reports suggest that he had difficulty walking following a stroke but was nonetheless placed in a punishment cell (SHIZA), raising further concerns about the treatment of political prisoners in Belarus.  After that he was transferred to Shklou colony No. 17. It was in this colony that political prisoner Witold Ashurak died under unclear circumstances on 21 May 2021. “We should not get used to death. We should not take this for granted. Every loss is a pain, a reminder of the responsibility that we all bear towards those who are in prison today, who did not live to see freedom, who are still fighting. I do not know how to put into words what I feel inside — everything seems inadequate. But we must keep fighting — for Valiantsin, and for everyone who gave their life for a free Belarus.” the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented on the tragedy.Belarusian human rights organisations have published a manifesto on the Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners, celebrated on 21 May. They called for a dialogue on the release of political prisoners. The manifesto was signed by 15 organisations. “The catastrophic situation of about 1,200 political prisoners requires immediate intervention. We welcome the release process that began in 2024 and call on the Belarusian authorities to continue the process of releasing political prisoners and expand it, ensuring the release of all those who were imprisoned for political reasons. We also call on democratic politicians to use all possible tools and mechanisms to facilitate the release, including through diplomatic initiatives and humanitarian negotiations. The release of political prisoners is not only a matter of justice, but also a manifestation of humanity. For those released, this means an end to unspeakable suffering, a return to their loved ones – and in some cases even salvation from the threat of death in custody,” the statement said.

Political criminal cases were opened against three Homiel lawyers. One of them faced charges of organising and preparing actions that grossly violate public order, or actively participating in them. He was accused of participating in a rally in the fall of 2020. After three days of detention in a temporary detention facility, he was released on his own recognizance and on condition of non-disclosure of the case materials. The second lawyer was accused of facilitating extremist activities for “writing something on the internet”. He was also released on his own recognizance and on condition of non-disclosure. A third lawyer was detained under the same charges, which are allegedly related to the case of hacking by security forces of the chatbot of the Belarusian Hajun project, which monitored the activity of Russian troops in Belarus. The lawyer is held in pre-trial detention centre.

Political prisoner Siarhei Ramanau was sentenced to another year and a half of imprisonment. This is the third time he has been convicted of “malicious disobedience to the demands of the administration.” Now his huge term has become even longer, 24 years and 5 months of imprisonment.

Lithuania filed a case against Belarus at the International Court of Justice accusing it of orchestrating a migrant crisis that endangered lives and violated international law in 2021. Lithuanian institutions have collected evidence that confirmed the involvement of the Belarusian authorities in organising migration flows, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry claimed. The Ministry said that the Belarusian border guards refused to cooperate with the Lithuanian authorities in order to curb illegal migration. Lithuania considered these actions as an attempt by the Belarusian authorities to use migration as a means of political pressure on Lithuania and the European Union in response to their support for Belarusian democracy. Lithuania’s claims include full compensation for the damage caused, including the cost of building a wall on the border with Belarus, as well as guarantees that these actions will not be repeated. Poland is exploring the possibility of joining Lithuania’s lawsuit. “We agree with Lithuania’s assessment of Belarus’ gross violation of international law, including the protocol against the smuggling of migrants,” the Foreign Ministry said in a response to a request from Euroradio.

On 19 May, independent human rights experts of the United Nations called on the Belarusian authorities to immediately release Viktoryia Kulsha, imprisoned in Zarechye Correctional Colony No. 24, in order to save her life. The statement was signed by Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; Laura Nyirinkindi, Chair, Claudia Flores, Vice-Chair, Dorothy Estrada Tanck, Ivana Krstić, and Haina Lu, members of the Working Group on discrimination against women and girls. “Viktoryia Kulsha’s condition has been life-threatening for some time now. According to recent reports, she has been on an indefinite hunger strike since the end of April. We are gravely concerned for her health and deeply fear for her life. Her release is urgently needed to ensure her safety,” the UN experts said. Kulsha was apprehended in November 2020 and sentenced to two and a half years of imprisonment for “gross violation of public order.” Although she has served her initial term, her detention has been extended three times for “malicious disobedience” to the penitentiary administration. A fourth investigation under the same charges has recently been opened, prompting Kulsha to go on hunger strike. The experts stressed that repeated extensions of her prison sentence may constitute further arbitrary detention and violate article 14 (7) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which prohibits repeated trial and punishment over an offence for which the person has been finally convicted.

On the Day of Solidarity with Belarusian Political Prisoners, the EU demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners and their full rehabilitation. “Perpetrators must be brought to justice,” a statement published by the European External Relations Service on the social network X stressed. On the same day, Members of the European Parliament called for new sanctions to be imposed on the organisers and participants of the repression in Belarus. Arbitrary arrests and politically motivated detentions have become “key tools of the Lukashenka regime in suppressing dissent”, Chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee David McAllister, Chair of the delegation for relations with Belarus Małgorzata Gosiewska, as well as her deputies Tomas Tobé and Michał Kobosko, said in a statement. The systematic human rights violations committed by the Lukashenka regime, some of which may amount to crimes against humanity, “must not go unpunished,” the MEPs stressed. They confirmed their “unwavering commitment to a sovereign, free and democratic Belarus”.

The international community expressed its support on the occasion of the Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners of Belarus. Steve Cohen, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Special Representative for Political Prisoners, member of the US Helsinki Commission, called for the release of all political prisoners in Belarus. Statements expressing solidarity with the political prisoners were published by the Foreign Ministries of Estonia, Latvia, and Sweden, Ambassador-at-Large of the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Asta Andrijauskienė, Polish Foreign Minister’s Plenipotentiary for Cooperation with the Democratic Forces of Belarus Adam Hałaciński, Commissioner for the EU Enlargement Marta Kos, Head of the EU Delegation to Belarus, Steen Noerlov, Permanent Mission of France to the OSCE, British Embassy in Belarus, and member of Parliament of Ukraine, Co-chair of the parliamentary group “For a Democratic Belarus” Vadim Galaichuk. A Holy Mass for Belarusian political prisoners was celebrated in Rome. The service brought together believers, diplomats and representatives of the Belarusian diaspora.

On 23 May, 38 OSCE member states called for immediate and unconditional release of political prisoners in Belarus. Those are states, who are members of the Informal Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus: Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, Albania, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liechtenstein, Malta, Moldova, North Macedonia, San Marino and Switzerland joined the statement. It was noted that at least eight political prisoners have died in the regime’s captivity. They were unjustly persecuted for their political opinions and failed to receive adequate medical attention and care. In June 2024, a group of 38 OSCE participating states invoked the Vienna Human Dimension mechanism and questioned many individual cases related to prisoners’ dignity, access to medication and medical care, to legal counsel of their own choosing, to effective remedies and a fair legal trial, as well as contacts with their families. The Belarus authorities did not bring any meaningful response to these questions, nor has Belarus made progress on the recommendations of either the 2020 or the 2023 OSCE Moscow Mechanism reports. Against this background, countries reiterated their call for the Belarusian authorities to stop repressing individuals for exercising their rights to freedom of expression, to freedom of association and to peaceful assembly, to release all political prisoners immediately and unconditionally, and to ensure their rehabilitation. They also expressed their solidarity with relatives and friends of political prisoners, who are subject to political and administrative repression in Belarus and in exile, as part of a wider brutal crackdown on opposition figures, human rights defenders, civil society representatives, journalists and other media actors, and other citizens who dare voice any opposition or dissent. “In the face of this disregard of OSCE principles and commitments by the Belarusian authorities, we will continue to support the Belarusian people’s aspiration for a free, democratic and independent Belarus”, the statement read.

Last week, representatives of the Lukashenka regime reacted rather nervously to a lawsuit filed to the International Court of Justice by a neighbouring country Lithuania against Belarus “for orchestrating large-scale illegal migration into Lithuania.” Pro-government commentator Aliaksandr Tsishchanka, writing in SB. Belarus Today on 20 May, attempted to distort the situation by claiming that “the migrants creating problems for Lithuania come from countries where it, as part of NATO forces, participated in military missions that turned them from prosperous dictatorships into rotting democracies.” He warned ominously: “Behind this superficial legal absurdity from Vilnius lies groundwork for far more dangerous agendas. Why is Vilnius portraying Belarus not only as the cause of its problems but also as a debtor? This is usually how pretexts for attacks are prepared. And this is serious.” That same day, an unnamed representative of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking at a UN Crime Prevention Commission session in Vienna, “categorically rejected the accusations of instrumentalising migration.” Nevertheless, the representative again urged neighbouring EU countries to “return to normal professional cooperation in addressing this global challenge.”

During the period under review, the MFA’s press service ramped up its activity. For example, in response to the EU’s announced plans to downscale its representation in Minsk, the MFA’s unofficial Telegram channel published a caricature mocking European diplomats, labelling them “extras who sabotage relations rather than developing them.” The channel’s authors questioned the point of having a “crowd of diplomats” since, in their view, Brussels has “been imposing sanctions for years, avoids dialogue, and is only interested in [delivering] patronising lectures.”

After news emerged that the European Parliament supported increasing tariffs on Belarusian fertilizers and agricultural products, MFA spokesperson Ruslan Varankou expressed sympathy for “ordinary citizens of EU member states who will lose access to high-quality, affordable, and competitive Belarusian goods.” He claimed the EU was punishing its own producers, while simultaneously accusing Brussels of “trade protectionism,” “unfair competition,” and “performative activity.” Although he admitted not knowing how to engage with the EU, he echoed official rhetoric by reaffirming Minsk’s openness: “It is unclear how to hold a serious dialogue with partners who show no concern for their own citizens, let alone for states as a whole. Nonetheless, guided by principles of good neighbourliness and global food security, Belarus remains open to equal and mutually beneficial cooperation.”

State propaganda outlets also offered extended commentary on the presidential elections in Poland and Romania. On 19 May, Minskaya Pravda columnist Pavel Karnazytski lamented that “European elites ultimately succeeded in promoting their ‘correct’ candidate to Romanian voters,” concluding bitterly that “Soros has won yet another poor, thoroughly corrupt country.” His colleague Yury Uvarau, explaining the victory of one candidate and the defeat of another, dove into conspiracy theories, claiming that Romania serves as a major coordination hub for the West in its war against Russia in Ukraine. He further asserted that Western powers, particularly France, have “big plans for Odessa,” arguing that controlling ports in Romania and Odessa would create a “valuable conglomerate” for a trans-European transport corridor from French ports to the Black Sea. According to Uvarau, this means Russia is left with “only one option: the immediate liberation of the Odessa region.” Pro-regime analyst Aliaksei Dzermant, echoing Uvarau, pondered why Trump did not “protect” the “Trumpist candidate” in Romania. His conclusion: “…Trump’s influence in the region is limited. The EU crowd, the French, the Germans — they can do whatever they want there. For them, it is a strategic bridgehead. For Trump, it is a geopolitical backwater. If the Europeans want control over Romania that badly, it must be for a reason — perhaps to prepare for war on the Moldova–Transnistria front against Russia.”

SB columnist Aliona Yasko, known for attacking the Baltic states, turned her attention to Poland this time. Predictably, she complained that voter turnout in the first round of presidential election in Poland was “only” 66%, compared to the alleged 85.7% turnout in Belarus under Lukashenka. Regardless of who wins the Polish election, she lamented, the rhetoric toward eastern neighbours will likely remain “hostile,” since “local politicians need an external enemy to excuse the visible decline in living standards.” SB propagandist Andrei Mukavozchyk went even further, accusing the Poles of collaborating with the Baltic states, which he claimed have “limetrophy encoded in their DNA” [Belarusian and Russian propagandists and some experts use the term “limitrophic states” to refer to those states that were formed on the outskirts of large empires, are borderline, are influenced by different cultural and political systems, and do not have independent policies – ed.]. He alleged that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and the UK signed an agreement enabling the voluntary transfer of all youth and children’s paramilitary groups in the Baltics under British command. Based on this, he concluded that British instructors will be preparing Baltic youth as “cannon fodder” for Poles, and that the Poles themselves have already been turned into “cannon fodder” for the British.

Propagandists also weighed in on events surrounding Ukraine. Interestingly, in recent writings, MP Vadzim Hihin has increasingly used the Russian–Ukrainian war as a means to praise Lukashenka, whose personality cult is slowly but steadily being built in Belarus. “It took nearly three years of brutal warfare for the newly elected U.S. president Donald Trump to almost exactly repeat the words of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. A peacekeeping stance has always characterised Lukashenka’s politics. Today, Belarus stands for a lasting, secured, and guaranteed peace. That is why the conditions under which it is achieved are crucial. Our main demand is that the interests of our country be taken into account. This approach has full support from Russia, as has been stated officially many times,” Hihin wrote. Pro-regime analyst Aliaksandr Shpakouski argued that “U.S. intentions should not be measured by lofty declarations but by its willingness to exit the coalition supporting the Kyiv regime”. His depiction of the situation in Ukraine was grim: “…Kyiv and its backers are preparing for prolonged war while simultaneously faking peace talks. Yet the ‘war until 2030’ will end with the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state. But that does not matter — Ukraine’s leadership has turned the war into a business model. Its military budget has increased tenfold in four years (over USD 60 billion), and its military-industrial complex has seen similar gains. In effect, Ukraine is no longer just a failed state — it has become a private military company selling its fighters and services.”

On 21 May, Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich, speaking at the opening of the MILEX-2025 exhibition, once again tried to emphasise Belarus’s “peaceful intentions.” He stated that the event “once again demonstrates our peaceful policy and our desire to showcase innovations in our economy and defence-industrial complex not on the battlefield but on exhibition stands and in pavilions.” Meanwhile, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin emphasiced that the country is holding the exhibition “amid escalating regional tensions and growing military preparations by some Western minority countries that have embraced open revanchism.” In an article for SB on 22 May, Aliaksandr Tsishchanka concluded that the Belarusian–Russian military-industrial partnership “looks more confident than that of its Western counterparts,” since both countries are deepening their military cooperation, while the West “acts individually and competitively.” He wrote: “Belarusian electronics, machinery, chemicals, repair facilities, and new technologies have quickly and efficiently adapted to increased defence needs. Our drones, tactical missiles, and radar systems are unmatched. The Union’s defence industry has clearly demonstrated its ability to switch to wartime production and maintain maximum independence under the toughest conditions. Russia and Belarus complement each other effectively not only in the development of conventional advanced weapons but even in strategic deterrence systems.”

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Best regards,
iSANS team