MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 18 and 24 May, 12 drone flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace: nine Russian and three Ukrainian. During the week, sorties by Belarusian Air Force duty units to intercept drones were also recorded. No reports were made of UAVs being destroyed or crashing.
In the interests of increasing the readiness of the Belarusian armed forces to employ modern means of destruction, including special munitions (tactical nuclear weapons – ed.), a training exercise for units responsible for the combat employment and support of nuclear weapons began under the leadership of the Chief of the General Staff. This was reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defence on 18 May. The exercise was described as aimed at improving personnel training, testing the readiness of military equipment to perform assigned tasks, and organising combat employment from unscheduled deployment areas. Missile troops and aviation units were involved. In cooperation with the Russian side, the exercise was intended to practise the delivery of nuclear munitions and their preparation for use. It was also noted that the main feature of the exercise would be testing readiness to conduct combat operations from unprepared areas throughout the territory of Belarus. Particular emphasis was to be placed on concealment, long-distance movement and operational calculations for the employment of forces and assets.
The following day, 19 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that the Russian armed forces would conduct exercises between 19 and 21 May on the preparation and employment of nuclear forces under conditions of a threat of aggression. Among other things, the exercise included practising the joint preparation and use of nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory.
On 20 May, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported that, within the framework of the exercise, one missile unit had occupied its designated area. Combat crews carried out a set of measures to prepare for receiving special munitions for the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system and equipping missile carriers with them. After loading the missiles onto launchers and transport-loading vehicles, the unit covertly redeployed to a new area. Following occupation of the area, the missile unit conducted simulated missile launches.
It was also reported that after preparation of the carrier aircraft – Su-25 attack aircraft – and equipping them with aviation strike assets, crews carried out a series of training-combat sorties and occupied designated airborne patrol zones. Upon receiving the appropriate command, the crews simulated bombing strikes with special munitions against a mock enemy before returning to their home airfield.
The Russian side reported the delivery of nuclear munitions to field storage points within the deployment area of a missile brigade in Belarus. The Russian Ministry of Defence also showed the deployment of Iskander-M systems equipped with special munitions and the covert redeployment of a Belarusian missile formation to a designated area.
On 21 May, Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Putin observed parts of the joint nuclear forces exercise remotely. During a visit to the 465th Missile Brigade stationed in Asipovichy later that day, Lukashenka stated that it was the first joint Russia-Belarus exercise on the command and control of strategic and tactical nuclear forces involving the presidents of both countries. According to him, certain elements of such training are conducted quarterly by the General Staffs and defence ministers. He was briefed on the exercise concept and shown military equipment, an Iskander-M launcher, and a simulated missile strike conducted electronically. During the visit, Lukashenka stated that Belarusian servicemen had mastered the Iskander-M systems and knew how to operate them. He also noted that Belarusian crews had carried out practical launches from the Iskander-M system at the Kapustin Yar test range in Russia. According to him, the launches were successful and the crews “hit the target exactly”.
Ukrainian military officials and politicians continued making statements about threats from Belarusian territory. On 19 May, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military leadership may be considering offensive operations from the northern direction, that is, from Belarusian territory. According to him, the Ukrainian side possesses information that the Russian General Staff is “actively calculating and planning” such operations.
On 20 May, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the situation on the Belarus–Bryansk region axis had been discussed at a meeting of the Stavka. According to him, Russia is considering attack scenarios against northern regions of Ukraine from that direction, primarily along the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis. Zelenskyy also announced strengthening of defence measures in that area.
On 21 May, reports stated that the Ukrainian Defence Forces had begun enhanced security measures in regions bordering Russia and Belarus. Their purpose is to increase readiness for possible actions by Russia and its allies from the northern direction. The measures are described as counterintelligence and counter-sabotage protection.
On the same day, 21 May, Zelenskyy raised the issue of threats from the Belarusian direction during a visit to Slavutych. In discussions with leaders of communities in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, he addressed the protection of northern regions, strengthening of air defence, fortifications and border-region issues. He also recalled that the 2022 offensive against Ukraine had been launched in part from Belarusian territory.
However, on 24 May, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stated that there are currently no direct signs of preparations for an invasion along the border with Belarus. It also noted that no concentration of forces indicating preparations for an offensive had been observed. At the same time, it was stated that the overall number of Belarusian units near the Ukrainian border has remained unchanged since 2022. It was further specified that several days earlier, two reconnaissance drones had been recorded over Belarusian territory flying along the border within Zhytomyr and Rivne regions.
On 24 May, Lukashenka and Emmanuel Macron discussed regional security and Belarus’s relations with the EU and France during a telephone conversation. In the presentation of Lukashenka’s press service, the call was framed as an exchange of views. According to AFP reports, it was presented as a warning about the risks of Belarus becoming involved in the war. The conversation took place after a Russian nuclear forces exercise involving Belarus. France remains the EU’s only nuclear power. Earlier reports had referred to plans for Franco-Polish exercises simulating nuclear strikes against targets in Russia and Belarus in response to the deployment of the “Oreshnik” system in Belarus.
During the handover of a batch of 9A33-2B combat vehicles from the Osa air defence system, modernised by JSC 2566 Radioelectronic Armament Repair Plant, acceptance live-fire tests were conducted outside Belarus, on the customer’s territory. The State Authority for Military Industry reported this on 20 May. During the tests, all aerial targets were destroyed and the vehicles’ technical characteristics were confirmed in operational conditions. The firing used 9M33M3 surface-to-air guided missiles restored at the 2566th plant. The foreign customer was not identified.
Representatives of the International Military Cooperation Department of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence took part in Belarusian-Serbian consultations on planning military cooperation. This was reported by the Ministry of Defence on 21 May. The meeting was held via videoconference. The sides exchanged views on issues of global and regional security and assessed the state and prospects of defence cooperation. Following the talks, a bilateral military cooperation plan between the defence ministries of Belarus and Serbia for 2026 was agreed.
On 21 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin, summing up the recent nuclear forces exercises, announced that the joint Belarusian-Russian armed forces exercise Union Shield-2027 is planned for 2027. “Such systematic and consistent steps are necessary to strengthen the defence capability of our countries and to reliably protect the citizens of Russia and Belarus from potential threats from all directions,” Putin stated.
The decision to conduct joint military exercises on the territory of Belarus or Russia every two years was adopted in 2009. The exercises are held either as joint strategic/operational-
Thus, the announcement of Union Shield-2027 fully corresponds to the established sequence and pattern of such exercises. Based on previous practice, the manoeuvres can be expected to take place in September 2027.
On 22 May, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin stated that work continues on establishing a territorial defence troop training centre in Barysau. The decision to create the centre was taken as part of the revision of the territorial defence training system. Once operating at full capacity, the number of trained specialists could increase two-, three- or even fourfold.
On 23 May, around 10,000 recruits took the military oath in the Belarusian armed forces. This was reported by the Ministry of Defence. On the same day, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, more than 1,000 new servicemen of the internal troops also took the oath. In addition, one week earlier, on 16 May, according to the State Border Committee, more than 1,000 recruits of the border service took the oath. No data were released regarding the number of recruits in units of the State Security Committee. The figures generally correspond to a regular spring call-up. In spring 2025, Belarus also planned to draft around 10,000 people, while the 2026 spring call-up envisaged approximately 10,000 conscripts and around 600 reservists. Thus, more than 12,000 recruits took the oath in May 2026. The higher aggregate figure likely reflects the inclusion of contract servicemen, rather than an expansion of the draft.
From 24 to 26 May, a command-staff exercise under the leadership of the deputy chairman of the Hrodna Regional Executive Committee is being conducted. This was reported by the Ministry of Defence. The manoeuvres are part of territorial troop training exercises in Lida district, which began on 5 May. The main focus is on the employment of territorial troops together with internal troops, internal affairs bodies and volunteer people’s militia units, as well as protection of personnel and facilities against drones.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
Between 21 and 24 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued a series of statements on regional security, sanctions policy and Russia’s war against Ukraine. On 21 May, she condemned the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, stating that Lukashenka is “step by step dragging the country into nuclear blackmail” and turning Belarus into a potential target because of dependence on Moscow and the deployment of Russian systems, including the Oreshnik missile complex. On 23 May, on the sidelines of the GLOBSEC conference in Prague, Tsikhanouskaya commented on reports that the United States had informally proposed that Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine consider lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash exports. She stated that the democratic forces oppose any easing of sanctions while repression continues in Belarus and the regime remains involved in Russian aggression and regional military escalation. At the same time, Tsikhanouskaya thanked Washington for its efforts to secure the release of political prisoners and argued for separating the American and European sanctions tracks: “American sanctions are for freeing people, European sanctions are for freeing the country”. On 24 May, Tsikhanouskaya condemned a massive Russian strike against Ukraine, describing it as “systemic terror against civilians”, and again stressed that the Lukashenka regime supports Russian actions by providing Belarusian territory and hosting Russian weapons systems. On the same day, she commented on Emmanuel Macron’s telephone conversation with Lukashenka. “The main aim is to send a clear message to Lukashenka that it is unacceptable for Belarus to be drawn further into the war, or to participate in nuclear blackmail and the creation of threats in the region. At the same time, everyone understands that Lukashenka does not possess genuine independence”, depends on the Kremlin and does not represent Belarusian society,” stated Tsikhanouskaya.
On 21 May, after observing exercises involving the use of nuclear weapons, Lukashenka stated that Belarus would not be drawn into war against Ukraine unless it faced aggression itself, and proposed meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy “at any point” in Ukraine or Belarus. The Office of the President of Ukraine responded sharply. Zelenskyy’s adviser Dmytro Lytvyn stated that Lukashenka’s words have meant nothing since 2022, when Belarus became a staging ground for Russian aggression. “Lukashenka has a habit of rather stupidly inventing after the fact where an ‘attack’ against him was supposedly being prepared from. What is there to discuss?” Lytvyn said.
For his part, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha commented on Lukashenka’s statements, whom Ukraine continues to regard as an accomplice to the crime of aggression against Ukraine and whose punishment it continues to demand. The Foreign Minister called Lukashenka’s offer to meet with President Zelenskyy a “very strange statement” and made it clear that Kyiv has no such interest. “We expect Tsikhanouskaya in Ukraine in the near future, so we have someone to talk to on all issues related to Belarus,” he stated. Commenting on Ukraine’s plans regarding Belarus, Sybiha pointed out that he considers the historical goals of Ukraine and Belarus to be connected. “We must help Belarus become a European colleague, because Belarus is also Europe,” he added.
On 23 May, U.S. President Donald Trump extended for another year the national emergency regime and sanctions against the Belarusian authorities. The document stated that the actions of parts of the Belarusian authorities and the regime’s “longstanding abuses” continue to pose a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy. The sanctions regime was originally introduced in 2006 following undemocratic “elections”, political repression and corruption, and was later expanded after the 2020 political crisis and the forced landing of a Ryanair flight.
At the same time, Minsk’s contacts with the United States continued to develop through a format of “spiritual diplomacy”. Evangelist Franklin Graham, who is linked to the circle around Donald Trump and John Coale, met Lukashenka on 15 May and held the Protestant “Festival of Hope” in Minsk, an event that the regime had refused to permit for years. The gathering attracted around 10,000 people inside Chyzhouka Arena and another 3,000 outside. In a report published on 22 May, Graham supported the return of the U.S. embassy to Minsk and stated that the church could help build bridges between the United States, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
The situation on the Belarusian-Baltic direction is becoming more complicated as the migration crisis overlaps with growing regional airspace tensions.
At the same time, direct confirmation of U.S. interest in resuming transit of Belarusian potash fertilisers was the key foreign policy development. According to a published letter from U.S. presidential envoy John Coale, Washington informally proposed that Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine assist in lifting restrictions on the transit of Belaruskali products to reduce dependence on Russian routes. Earlier, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys described this policy as “U.S. pressure – on Lithuania.”
At the same time, the crisis surrounding UAVs and meteorological balloons began merging into a single regional security issue. On 20–21 May, air alerts were declared in Lithuania and Latvia because of suspected drones arriving from the direction of Belarus. Minsk, in turn, lodged a protest with Lithuania over a Ukrainian UAV allegedly discovered in Vitsebsk region. Against this backdrop, Lithuania submitted additional materials to ICAO regarding meteorological balloons arriving from Belarus and conducted a large-scale operation against cigarette smuggling networks using aerial delivery methods.
An important nuance was that Lithuania reportedly received information on UAV movements on 20 May from the Belarusian military via the “red” communication channel. Similar actions were observed on 10 September 2025, when 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Ukraine.
Migration pressure continues to display an asymmetric character. After two brief spikes, the Polish section of the border again returned to near-zero figures, while 586 crossing attempts were recorded on the Latvian direction between 18 and 24 May.
Eighty delegates from nine lists were elected to the new (fourth) convocation of the Coordination Council. Pavel Latushka’s coalition “For Freedom” won more than 42% of the vote, followed by “European Choice” and “Volia”. Turnout amounted to 2,113 participants, three times lower than during the previous vote in 2024.
The National Bank of Belarus announced that from 1 June it will reduce the refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 9.25% annually. The easing of monetary policy is aimed at supporting economic growth, which has shown signs of slowing in 2026. National Bank head Raman Halouchanka explained the decision by citing slower inflation. In April, annual inflation fell to 5.4%, core inflation to 5.9%, while trend inflation was estimated at around 5%. Additional factors cited included stability of the deposit market, moderate credit growth, a more favourable external price environment and slowing inflation in Russia. The National Bank did not rule out further rate cuts in 2026.
HUMAN RIGHTS AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
Khatere Khodadadi, a student of the Faculty of Foreign Studies at the Belarusian State Medical University from Iran, was detained in Belarus for comments about Iran in Telegram. She was detained at the request of the Iranian Embassy in Belarus and was sentenced to 14 days of arrest. She was supposed to be released on April 30, but still remains in custody, and her status in Belarus remains uncertain. It was also reported that during her detention, she was denied access to a lawyer and the opportunity to contact friends.
On 18 May, the Investigative Committee began a special procedure criminal proceedings in absentia against Syarhei Mikhalok, a popular musician, founder and leader of music bands Lapis Trubetskoy, Brutto and Drezden. Mikhalok is charged with inciting hatred and insulting Lukashenka. The Investigative Committee invited him to attend the Leninsky district department of the Investigative Committee in Minsk. In 2020, Mikhalok announced that all his projects would not be performing in Belarus until the regime changes.
The security forces have found a new way to avenge those who participated in the 2020 protests — they are searching the homes of Belarusians who can no longer be held accountable due to the expiration of the statute of limitations. Several cases in Mahileu are known from the last week when employees of the Main Directorate for Combating Organised Crime and Corruption (GUBOPiK) broke into apartments “for prevention”. Several security forces employees would come to an individual’s home around 7 a.m. and put him face down on the floor, wringing his hands. The apartment would be searched and things thrown around (as if more for show than to find something). The security forces employees explained that they come to the homes of those who participated in the 2020 protests so that people “would not relax”. After the searches, individuals were taken to the Police Department for a “preventive conversation”, warned about responsibility for “protest” activities, and briefed on how “extremists” were being tracked. They were given a paper to sign to confirm they understood the risk of criminal liability for new facts of protest activities. After that, people were allowed to leave.
Security officers conducted searches last week at homes of two people associated with the Flagshtok media. One of the GUBOPiK employees said that “such actions will continue as long as the media publishes new materials”. The editorial board noted that the pressure on individuals associated with Flagshtok can be considered as another attempt to intimidate and put pressure on independent media in Belarus. At the same time, the actions of the security forces may be an attempt to prematurely clear the information space from independent media “against the background of a possible escalation of the situation”, since the Homel region, which Flagshtok covers, is located on the border with Ukraine. In 2022, KGB added the Flagshtok to the list of “extremist formations”.
At least three more people were convicted in Homel under an administrative charge of holding an unauthorised mass event for participating in the “Gukanne Viasny”, a traditional Belarusian “greeting of spring” ceremony. Earlier, at least one participant of “Gukanne Viasny” had been sentenced to 15 days of arrest, five people had been sentenced to fines of 100 basic units (4,500 rubles or more than 1,400 Euro). Another person, who was considered to be the organiser of the ceremony, had been fined 150 basic units (6,750 rubles or more than 2,100 Euro). The Spadchyna restaurant, where the ceremony was held, continues to operate. It was closed for a while, then reopened, but events related to Belarusian culture and cuisine are no longer announced there.
On 20 May, the Hrodna Regional Court considered a criminal case in absentia against Maksim Shabutski, a former policeman, blogger and soldier of the Kalinouski Regiment. He was charged under 17 criminal articles, including calls for sanctions, inciting social hatred, mass riots, slandering Lukashenka, insulting Lukashenka, insulting a government official, insulting a judge, slander, discrediting Belarus, abusing state symbols, financing extremist activities, facilitating extremist activities, creating an extremist formation or participation in it, creation of a criminal organisation, participation of a citizen of Belarus on the territory of another country in an armed formation or conflict, undergoing training or other training to participate in extremist activities, plotting to seize power. Shabutski was sentenced to 19 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and a fine of 3,500 basic units (157,500 rubles or approximately 49,570 Euro).
The authorities refused to extend their permission to continue ministry in Belarus to five Catholic priests and one monk with Polish citizenship in the Minsk-Mahileu Archdiocese. All of them have been working in Belarus for many years. Earlier, it became known about the refusal of permission to continue ministry to three Polish priests in the Vitsebsk diocese, and before that, two priests in the Pinsk diocese.
Human rights defenders reported mass searches in Minsk on 21 May, the Day of Solidarity with Belarusian Political Prisoners. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, they were held in the apartments of activists who left Belarus, including Uladzimir Labkovich, lawyer at “Viasna” and the head of “Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections” campaign. The search in his apartment was held within the framework of a new criminal case against him initiated after his release and forced expulsion from Belarus. It is known about more than ten searches that took place on that day. Anastasia Vasilchuk, “Viasna” human rights activist, said that three KGB officers came to her apartment in the morning in connection with her participation in Freedom Day celebrations in Warsaw. Similar visits were made to her friends who participated in Freedom Day protest action in Vilnius. “All these events are a clear indicator that the repression is not stopping, but is increasingly becoming transnational,” she stressed, urging victims to contact human rights defenders and record such cases. KGB officers also broke into the apartment of the parents of activist Artsyom Basalai, who lives in Poland. Criminal cases have been opened against him for “extremism”, “ high treason”, as well as for participating in Freedom Day action in Warsaw.
On the Day of Solidarity with Belarusian Political Prisoners on 21 May, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre published up-to-date data on political prisoners in Belarus. As of 21 May 2026, 841 political prisoners were being held in places of detention, of which 727 are men and 114 are women. At least 168 of them were in a special risk group due to health condition, disability, old age or family status. There were 26 parents with many children and at least 17 foreign citizens behind bars. Since 2020, nine political prisoners have died in custody. Former prisoners reported torture, beatings and inhumane conditions of detention.
Political prisoner, journalist Kiryll Paznyak was hospitalised at the Pre-trial Detention Centre No. 1. This was reported on Facebook by his ex-wife Alena Pakala. His condition is assessed as serious. He was hospitalised “with advanced consequences of pneumonia and COVID, which he picked up in an isolation ward in Akrestsina detention centre” eight months ago. Paznyak was detained on 4 September 2025, the day his YouTube channel Platforma 375 was recognised as an “extremist formation”.
Lukerya and Veranika Mirontsav, who were tried under an “extremist” charge, were released immediately after the verdict was announced. They were sentenced to restriction of freedom at their place of residence. They had been in pre-trial detention centre No. 1 since December 2025, when they were detained on charges of attempted assistance to extremist activities. This was not the first criminal conviction in the Mirontsav family. In August 2020, sisters Victoryja and Anastasia stood up for people during the brutal detentions at the Minsk Sports Palace. For this, Victoryja was sentenced to two and a half years of imprisonment, and Anastasia was sentenced to two years of imprisonment. Both have fully served their sentences and were released in 2022. Another sister, Aliaksandra, managed to leave Belarus.
The international human rights organisation Amnesty International published an annual report on the practice of using the death penalty in the world. Last year, it did not record the execution of death sentences in Belarus. At the same time, last year the number of executions worldwide reached its highest level since 1981, when Amnesty International began to keep statistics. A total of 2,707 people were executed in 17 countries in 2025.
The BELPOL initiative of former security officers presented a report “On the real scale of political repression in Belarus” at the III Congress on Political Prisoners, held in Vilnius. The report was prepared with the participation of the Representative Office of the United Transitional Cabinet for Social Policy and the Volnyja initiative, using materials from Dissidentby and “Viasna” Human Rights Centre. “This report is intended to help understand the Belarusian reality correctly, as the issue of political repression in Belarus and political prisoners is misunderstood by many. It is much broader than it is presented to the public. In reality, hundreds of thousands of people have suffered from political repression in our country,” BELPOL commented. According to the report, from May 2020 to March 2026, 9,564 people went through criminal prosecution for political reasons. This number includes 911 current political prisoners, 3,660 former political prisoners, and 5,023 individuals who have not been recognised as political prisoners. More than 100,000 people are included in the “Besporyadki” database, of which more than 50,000 were subjected to administrative detentions and arrests. People who are included in the database face restrictions in their rights, for example, when applying for employment.
On 21 May, the Third Congress on Political Prisoners of Belarus was held in Vilnius, bringing together former prisoners, human rights defenders, politicians and international partners. The main topic was the fate of people remaining behind bars, as well as further steps for their release. The forum participants stressed that the release of individuals does not mean the end of repression, and the pressure on the Lukashenka regime should not weaken. Nobel Peace Prize laureate, human rights defender Ales Bialiatski, who was recently released himself, spoke about those who remain in prisons: “We are now free. But we never forget that the whole of Belarus is now one prison. Every day I think about our colleagues, friends and activists who are still suffering and continue this difficult path.” “It’s not enough for us that political prisoners are released; otherwise, some are simply replaced by others, and this bloody merry-go-round just goes on and on. I urge representatives of the diplomatic corps not to ease pressure on the regime, not to lift sanctions until three conditions are met: the release of political prisoners, the cessation of repression and the beginning of a broad dialogue,” Bialiatski said. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya pointed out that the release of hundreds of political prisoners had been made possible by the solidarity of Belarusians, the work of human rights defenders and international pressure, and stressed the importance of maintaining international pressure on the regime and supporting the families of political prisoners. She noted that even after their release, people need rehabilitation, support and solidarity.
On the International Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners of Belarus, more than 40 governments, parliamentarians, diplomats, international organisations and representatives of civil society made statements calling for their release. The European Parliament called for the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners and condemned the practice of forcibly expelling former prisoners from their own country. It also demanded a full amnesty for all political prisoners and guarantees of safe return for those who were forced to leave the country. The UK expressed deep concern that the overall situation in Belarus is not improving, despite recent releases. The Vice-President of the European Parliament, Pina Picierno, noted that the repression is no longer limited to political opponents and journalists. Increasingly, their family members are also at risk. Robin Wagener, a member of the Bundestag from the Green Party, demanded that the German federal government seek the release of all political prisoners in Belarus, and separately thanked Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for “tirelessly fighting for Belarus to remain on the political agenda of Europe”. The U.S. Congress, the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, and the George W. Bush Presidential Centre expressed solidarity with more than 840 political prisoners, including 21 journalists. A mass was held at the Church of the Resurrection in Rome. The service was being held for the fourth time. It was initiated by the heads of the diplomatic missions of Lithuania and Poland to the Vatican.
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