Belarus Review by iSANS — May 19, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 12 and 18 May, at least one Russian drone of the “Shahed” type was recorded in Belarusian airspace. Nothing is known about the subsequent fate of the drone. It is important to note that following the record set in November 2024, the number of violations of Belarusian airspace by drones has been decreasing for the fifth consecutive month. For example, in April 2025, the lowest number of drones was recorded since July 2024, when such flights began to be systematically observed.

On 12 May, within the framework of the official visit to Belarus by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the Minister of Defence of Belarus Viktar Khrenin held a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart Fan Van Zhang. This was reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defence. Among the areas of cooperation discussed were military medicine, topographic support, and military education. “It is precisely effective and fruitful cooperation in various areas of life, along with a high dynamic of contacts, that has made it possible to elevate our relations to a new level — strategic partnership,” stated Viktar Khrenin. In his turn, the Vietnamese Minister of Defence noted that military and military-technical cooperation is a key element in the interaction between the two countries.

From 13 May to 6 June, training assemblies will be held in the Brest district for reservists intended to staff territorial troops. More than 400 reservists will be called up from the reserve to form the headquarters of the district territorial defence and two separate rifle battalions of territorial troops. The Brest district is a border area and shares a frontier with Poland and Ukraine. In 2025, four out of five regions hosting territorial troop assemblies are located in border zones: three along the western border and one along the southern. In 2024, of the 15 regions where assemblies were held, three were situated along Belarus’s western border. In 2023 and 2022, only one region per year was involved, each located along the southern border. It can be stated that each year increasing attention is being paid to territorial defence in border regions.

On 14 May, Russian Telegram channel “VCHK-OGPU”, citing its own sources, reported that the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) would soon be fully withdrawn from Africa. “In the near future, Wagner PMC will be forced to completely hand over its infrastructure and leave the African continent. Mercenaries are verbally promised relocation to Belarus, but so far there is no confirmation of this,” the message stated. The final withdrawal of Wagner PMC from Africa is scheduled for June–July 2025.

On 15 May, a group of servicemen from various units of the Armed Forces of Belarus departed for training in Russia. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Defence, the future instructors will undergo training at the 333^rd Combat Training Centre of the Russian Armed Forces in areas including firearms, tactics, medical training, and other disciplines. The training programme has been developed taking into account the experience of modern armed conflicts. This is already the third group of servicemen to undergo training in Russia for subsequent appointment as instructors. The preparation of instructors for the Armed Forces of Belarus in Russia began in 2024. Approximately 150 servicemen were trained in the first two groups. The purpose of the training is to master advanced methods of troop preparation and implement them in the practice of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

On 16 May, the Minister of Defence of Russia, Andrey Belousov, arrived in Minsk on a one-day working visit. The official held meetings with Aliaksandr Lukashenka and the Minister of Defence of Belarus, Viktar Khrenin. During the meeting, Andrey Belousov stated that Russia and Belarus, as allies, share a common defence space and are obliged to strengthen it as rapidly as possible under the current international conditions. He also highlighted three key areas in which the countries are jointly working to reinforce it. The first is improving the coherence of the troops and coordination between command structures. The second area is the training of Belarusian servicemen in Russian military institutions. According to Belousov, more than 300 Belarusian citizens are currently studying in relevant Russian institutions. The third area is military-technical cooperation between the two countries. During the meeting, Aliaksandr Lukashenka commented on the military-technical cooperation between the countries. “I am grateful to the Russian Federation for finding the opportunity, during these difficult times, to deliver the weapon systems we have purchased. I mean aircraft, helicopters, and so on,” he said. Lukashenka also noted that work is ongoing regarding the deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile complex in Belarus. Following this, negotiations were held between Andrey Belousov and Viktar Khrenin. Summarising the results, Viktar Khrenin stated that the talks made it possible to comprehensively discuss current cooperation in the military sphere, and that military and military-technical cooperation is a cornerstone of intergovernmental interaction. In his statement, Andrey Belousov emphasised that the main event of 2025 will be the Belarusian-Russian strategic exercise “Zapad-2025”. “I want to stress the purely defensive nature of this event. We plan to jointly rehearse actions to repel aggression against the Union State using the regional grouping of troops and a coalition grouping of forces from friendly states along several strategic directions,” he stated. According to Belousov, Belarus and Russia have a unified approach to neutralising military threats to the Union State. “Particular attention is paid to increasing the combat capabilities of the regional grouping of troops and conducting joint operational and combat training,” he said.

On 17 May, more than 1,500 conscripts took the military oath across all formations and military units of the Internal Troops. This was reported by the press service of the Internal Troops. The Commander of the Internal Troops, Mikalai Karpiankou, attended the oath-taking ceremony in the 3^rd Special Purpose Brigade. According to him, the majority of new recruits are ready to continue service under contract. “Of the 250 conscripts, 99% are prepared to remain under contract in our special operations units and accomplish any task. Such impressive figures once again confirm: there are no random people here!” he stated. The number of conscripts called up to staff units of the Internal Troops has consistently remained within the range of 1,000 to 1,500 persons for more than 20 years. No deviations have been recorded.

The leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, took part in the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, on 16 May, which coincided with the negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Turkey. Before the official start of the summit, Tsikhanouskaya met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to her press service. They reportedly had time to discuss how to end the war and build relations under the new circumstances. “It is now crucial to stand with Ukraine and support the Ukrainian people. Ending the Russian aggression is our shared goal. We are working to ensure that both Belarus and Ukraine are free — without occupiers, without dictators, as part of the European family,” she wrote in her Telegram channel. During the summit, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the leaders of 13 countries, including Turkish President Erdogan and Slovak Prime Minister Fico. According to her chief advisor Franak Viacorka, Tsikhanouskaya spoke with Erdogan shortly after negotiations began in Turkey, reiterating her earlier request for Turkey’s support in securing the release of Belarusian political prisoners. Later on, she confirmed it, stating on X: “Türkiye plays a crucial role in resolving regional conflicts as a key mediator for peace and security. We count on Türkiye’s continued engagement to support dialogue, accountability, and freedom.” She also held talks with Slovak Prime Minister Fico, during which they agreed to stay in contact and explore the possibility of a more in-depth meeting. Additionally, at the event, Tsikhanouskaya met with Polish Prime Minister Tusk. “Poland knows: Europe’s security cannot be complete without a free Belarus. Belarusians are ready to contribute to regional peace and stability. Pressure on dictators works — let’s keep it up until freedom prevails,” she wrote on X. The other prominent figures whom she managed to speak with were the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

During her working visit to Luxembourg, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, held high-level political talks with Theodoros Rousopoulos, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), focusing on enhancing strategic cooperation between Belarusian democratic forces and the Council. This collaboration already rests on a solid foundation, including the functioning Contact Group, the delegation of Belarusian democratic forces to PACE, and a significant resolution on Belarus adopted during the Reykjavik summit. Key topics discussed included establishing a mechanism to monitor the implementation of the “Luxembourg Decisions,” conducting a legal review of the proposed Constitution for a future democratic Belarus, and the importance of holding Aliaksandr Lukashenka accountable through a special tribunal.

Tsikhanouskaya also addressed ministers from all Council of Europe member states at a session of its Committee of Ministers. In her speech, she emphasised the importance of unity around shared values, support for people defending freedom, and courage in the face of authoritarianism. “Let’s remain united for the values we all share. Values are what make Europe strong,” she said. She also called on Europe to “build bridges, not walls,” and to “support Ukraine, confront Putin, hold Lukashenka accountable, and defend your democracies — and help those who are still fighting for theirs.”

Switzerland is continuing to implement the EU’s 16^th package of sanctions against Russia, as well as a new set of sanctions targeting Belarus, both of which were announced in February 2025. In early March, Switzerland had already aligned itself with the personal sanctions included in the packages. Now, it is introducing additional measures. “At its meeting on 14 May 2025, the Federal Council decided to adopt the remaining measures from the EU’s 16^th package of sanctions against Russia that are relevant to Switzerland, thereby strengthening their overall impact. The Federal Council also joined the EU’s sanctions measures against Belarus,” the Council’s press service stated. The measures concerning Belarus include tighter export restrictions and a ban on the import of unprocessed Belarusian aluminium. These steps aim to further align sanctions regimes against Minsk and Moscow, in order to prevent any circumvention of the imposed restrictions.

At the instruction of Belarusian ruler Aliaksandr Lukashenka, a delegation headed by Ihar Sergeyenka, Chairman of the regime-controlled House of Representatives of the National Assembly, has arrived in the Vatican to attend the Inauguration Mass of Pope Leo XIV, according to the House of Representatives’ press service. Commenting on that, Sergeyenka expressed readiness to “once see the Pope in Belarus”, while also presenting him with a gift from the dictator — an icon of the Mother of God “Zhirovichi.” The image was made in the Minsk St. Elizabeth Monastery. The St. Elizabeth Monastery and its confessor, Archpriest Andrey Lemeshonak, openly support the Russian military aggression in Ukraine and provide assistance to the Russian army.

“It is crucial to support Ukraine during this challenging time in its struggle for freedom, independence, and territorial integrity,” emphasised Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, during his conversations with heads of foreign diplomatic missions accredited in Poland. The remarks were made on 16 May at the opening of an exhibition hosted by the Latvian Embassy in Poland, dedicated to the 81^st anniversary of the deportation of the Crimean Tatars. The event featured an exhibition of reproductions by Crimean Tatar artist Rustem Eminov entitled Do Not Forget, which depicts the experiences of those who were deported. The gathering also included a discussion on the current persecution of Crimean Tatars in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. Latushka attended the event at the invitation of the Latvian Ambassador to Poland, Juris Poikans. Ambassadors of Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Lithuania, and other countries were also present, alongside representatives of Ukrainian and Polish civil society organisations.

Additionally, Latushka reached out to the foreign ministries of several European countries and the European Commission. He proposed that, in the event trade restrictions are imposed on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, similar measures should also be applied to Lukashenka’s regime, which is complicit in that aggression. During meetings in Warsaw on 16 May with Ambassador Valdemaras Sarapinas (Lithuania) and Ambassador Juris Poikans (Latvia), Latushka underscored the importance of adopting a coordinated approach. He stressed that if a trade embargo on Russian goods were to be implemented, parallel restrictions should extend to the Lukashenka regime, both to curb its involvement in Russia’s actions against Ukraine and to halt its domestic repressive measures. Latushka warned that any other strategy would provide the regime with broader opportunities to circumvent both the sanctions and trade restrictions.

Artyom Brughan has been elected as the new Speaker of the Coordination Council, replacing Anzhalika Melnikava, who mysteriously disappeared. Melnikava ceased performing her duties on 12 February, and the position remained vacant following her unexplained absence. In accordance with the Council’s statute, a new speaker must be elected three months after the role is left unfilled.

Lithuania has filed a complaint against Belarus in the International Court of Justice due to the “unprecedented increase in the flow of illegal migrants” in 2021. iSANS fully supports legal measures to hold the Belarusian regime accountable as it noted last year in its report “Instrumentalization of Migration at the Belarusian-Polish Border in 2021-2024: A Tool of Hybrid Warfare” in which it noted Lithuania’s preparation of an appeal to the International Court of Justice, that started in 2023, is an example of the possibility of using human rights law not only for its intended purpose – to protect the rights of individuals or groups, but also to protect the interests of the state from illegal actions, including hybrid ones. The efforts of the Republic of Lithuania to seek responsibility for the Lukashenka regime have to be supported by as many countries as possible to demonstrate states’ unity in fighting the instrumentalization of migration with all possible means.

Tamara Karavai, a 45-year-old former political prisoner, has died. She was released on a pardon last year. Tamara was sentenced to two years of imprisonment for “slandering Lukashenka”. Her “crime” was “liking” a publication in Odnoklassniki social network, where Lukashenka was called a dictator. Karavai was among those pardoned on 20 August 2024. She was released just three months earlier than her due date. Heart disease was announced as a cause of death. The exact date of death is unknown. Karavai was last online on her social networks on 23 April. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya expressed her condolences over the death of Tamara Karavai and stated that the “pardons” on the eve of the end of the term are attempts to conceal crimes. “Releasing a person when their body is already broken is not a pardon, it is a concealment of evidence of murder. The Lukashenka regime spares neither women, nor the sick, nor the elderly. He throws people in jail for “likes”, words and thoughts, and then quietly destroys their health and human dignity. And the way this regime killed Tamara is not an isolated case. We remember the stories of Sviatlana Krutikava, Hanna Kandratsenka, and Valyantsin Ivanouski. And, unfortunately, there is hardly an end to this list,” Tsikhanouskaya said.

Earlier, it became known that on 5 February 2025, 39-year-old former political prisoner Hanna Kandratsenka died, Nasha Niva reported. The woman was sentenced to three years of imprisonment for comments on the Internet under three defamatory articles. She was tried twice. While serving her sentence in women’s penal colony No. 4 in Homel, she was diagnosed with cervical cancer. She was taken to a cancer clinic in Homel for treatment, but despite her serious illness, she was not granted early release. After she served her term, Hanna was released on June 20, 2024. Seven months later, she died of cancer. Lawyer of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre Pavel Sapelka noted that the health problems in Belarusian prisons are severe: “Conditions of detention, insufficient medical care, and psychological pressure negatively affect the physical and mental state of prisoners. In 2024, there were several deaths of political prisoners, such as Vadzim Khrasko, who died of pneumonia, and Ihar Lednik, who had a disability and died of cardiac arrest. These cases indicate systemic problems in providing medical care in prisons. This year, we have learnt about the death of former political prisoners, one of whom was diagnosed with cancer while still in the penal colony.” As of March 2025, at least 219 political prisoners were at particular risk behind bars.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs included the Belarusian Social Democratic Party “Hramada” in the list of “extremist formations”. The decision was taken on 7 May. The resolution stated that a group of founders, leaders and members of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party allegedly carried out extremist activities. The authorities considered Ihar Barysau, Hanna Kanyus and Ihar Maslouski to be involved in “Hramada” activities. Their social media pages, as well as the website and accounts of the party itself, were recognized as “extremist”. The party’s logo was also banned. Belarusian Social Democratic Party “Hramada” was established in 1991. On 20 September  2023, the Supreme Court liquidated it. Prior to that, the Ministry of Justice had refused to register it. The official reason was alleged non-compliance with the requirements of the new law on political parties. A week after the party was recognised as an “extremist formation”, security officers began visiting the party members. “It became known about the first visit of law enforcement officers to the household of a former “Hramada” member, who is currently living abroad. Security officers in civilian clothes visited the activist’s parents. “They requested to be shown his personal belongings. As a result, the party flag, party ticket, election posters, booklets, party charter and other party literature were taken away,” “Hramada” reported on its telegram channel.

The work of the legal aid department of the Belarusian Solidarity Center has been suspended since 12 May due to problems with financing. “Our hotline is no longer functioning, the Telegram channel @CBShelp will be deleted and will not accept new requests. Unfortunately, we cannot continue to provide legal assistance due to a lack of funding. We continue to look for ways to resume our operations, but this process takes time,” the Belarusian Solidarity Center stated. It was emphasised that only the legal aid department stopped working, while other programmes of the Center continue their activities.

“Viasna” Human Rights Center reported the ongoing detentions of those who sent information to the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project. In early February, the security forces gained access to its chatbot. After that, the project announced its termination. At least 15 cases of arrests are currently known. As reported by former prisoners of Akrestsina Detention Center, the detentions take place within the framework of article 361-4 of the Criminal Code (assistance to extremist activities). Most of the detainees are men.

Belarus plans to sign agreements with nine countries on the extradition of persons wanted for criminal prosecution or for the execution of court sentences . This was stated by Justice Minister Yauhen Kavalenka at a meeting of the House of Representatives on 14 May. “We are currently working with Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Brazil, Cambodia and Nicaragua,” he reported. Belarus has already conducted all domestic procedures necessary to sign extradition agreements with three other countries, South Africa, Korea and Sri Lanka. Kavalenka did not specify with which of the Koreas, South or North, Belarus is going to sign the document. On 14 May, the House of Representatives ratified the extradition treaty with Pakistan.

On May 15, Maksim Lyapushenka, one of the oldest active editors of the section and the most experienced administrator of the Belarusian Wikipedia, was detained. Earlier Volha Sitnik, another administrator of the Belarusian Wikipedia, had been arrested. She suddenly stopped editing articles and contacting her colleagues on 17 April. She was then released, but soon detained again and sentenced to 10 days of administrative arrest. It is difficult to say which Wikipedia article could have been a reason for her persecution. On 13 March, Kazimier Lachnovič (real name unknown), administrator of the same section, disappeared. There has been no contact with him since that time. Presumably, he was detained within the framework of a criminal case. A week after Lachnovič’s disappearance, a material by state propagandist Lyudmila Gladkaya was released, in which it was stated that “Wikipedia is a weapon of mass destruction against the countries of the former Soviet Union, and its Belarusian section is edited from Poland”. The detention of three Belarusian Wikipedia administrators within a couple of months taken together with the attacks by propagandists looks like a single repressive action against Belarusian-language Wikipedia.

A prisoner died in the Ivatsevichi colony No. 22 “Wolf Holes”, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. The cause of his death is still unknown. At the end of April, a possible COVID-19 epidemic was reported in this colony. “The convicts were sick in whole groups, and they were treated only with paracetamol,” the human rights activists said. The information that the symptoms of the disease were very similar to the coronavirus was reported by the prisoners themselves. Even then, they were afraid that someone might not survive. “It was cold in the barracks due to the frosts. The administration of the colony strongly denied information about the increase in morbidity, and when the news reached non-governmental media, it began to threaten prisoners with responsibility for conveying information to “extremist» resources”, “Viasna” wrote.

On 16 May, the Interior Ministry updated the list of people involved in “extremist activities” and added 40 more persons to it.

On 30 May, the Pervamaisky district court of Minsk will consider a criminal case against Nina Bahinskaya on charges of repeated violation of the law on holding mass events. The charges are based on administrative protocols and court rulings regarding “unauthorised picketing” in 2024. 78-year-old Nina Bahinskaya, an iconic figure of Belarusian protests, was detained dozens of times. Due to numerous fines, her cottage and land plot were taken away from her, and she has not received her pension in full for years. Bahinskaya suffers from a number of serious illnesses and needs regular medical care. Her life, if she is sentenced to a prison term, is in serious danger.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has received an invitation to visit Belarus. This was reported in late February, when Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou met with Volker Türk within the framework of his participation in high-level events in Geneva. “The visit has not taken place yet, but it could be an opportunity for the UN to show its attention to the situation in Belarus and lead to an improvement in the human rights situation in the country,” commented Valery Kavaleuski, Executive Director of Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency.

Luxembourg has allocated 250,000 Euro for the International Humanitarian Fund, Luxembourg’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel said at a meeting with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The funds will be used for the treatment and rehabilitation of political prisoners and those repressed in Belarus. Issues of support for the Belarusian people, European integration and responsibility of the Lukashenka regime were also discussed at the meeting.

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has presented its research on the transnational persecution of journalists by the Lukashenka regime. According to the report, the Investigative Committee has opened criminal cases against at least 60 Belarusian journalists who have left the country and continue their professional activities in exile. Journalists are tried in the framework of the so-called “special procedure”, which allows to conduct trials in absentia. The campaign of criminal prosecution of media workers became widespread in 2024. Journalists, as a rule, learn about the initiation of criminal proceedings against them only when security forces come with searches or interrogations to their relatives in Belarus. As noted in the report, media workers often do not know what they are accused of before the trial. The CPJ sent an official request for comment on the practice of using “special procedure” to the Investigative Committee, but received no reply.

On 18 May, a protest action dedicated to the Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners, which is celebrated on 21 May, was held in Vilnius. The protesters honoured the memory of those who died behind bars and expressed solidarity with those who remain in custody. Protest actions will also be held in the Hague, Utrecht, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Poznan, Bialystok, Gdansk, and Krakow. The organisers urge everyone who wants to express support for those who are behind bars for their civic position to join.

During the reporting period, regime representatives continued to heavily promote the celebration of the 80^th anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War. Alongside praise for Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin following the parades in Minsk and Moscow, they persisted in accusing leading Western politicians of attempting to revive Nazism in the form of the so-called modern “Eurofascism.” On 12 May, in the state-run “SB. Belarus Today” newspaper, pro-regime commentator Aliaksandr Tsishchanka wrote that the “EU administration and the leadership of NATO-aligned countries” were “shocked” by the displays of courage shown by the direct descendants of the victors. He argued that all attempts to whitewash “Ukrainian and Baltic collaborators” and to “rewrite responsibility for World War II” were in vain. “Moscow hosted a parade that was not matched in terms of public support, guest engagement, and participant involvement. Minsk also celebrated the victory powerfully and in unison with fraternal Russia. This is truly our Union’s ideological and political triumph over the rising neo-Nazi caste in Europe, which, from its crumbling Brussels throne, imagines itself a historical and moral authority,” Tsishchanka claimed.

Echoing the theme of “being in unison with fraternal Russia,” propagandist Ryhor Azaronak took it even further in his 14 May Telegram post, asserting that Lukashenka had saved Russia thirty years ago: “If the ‘Special Military Operation’ is a battle against Nazism, then we started it. The first missile salvo was the Belarusian referendum of 1995. It is hard to overestimate this historic event. It determined, no more and no less, the fate of the entire region. We were destined to follow Ukraine’s path. In the end, a vast, powerful fascist Intermarium empire, armed to the teeth, was meant to emerge in Eastern Europe — Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine, Belarus. A sanitary cordon between Germany and Russia was being completed. After that: swamps, collapse, and direct occupation. Brzezinski wrote all this down. But Batska [meaning Father, which is a typical servile address to the dictator used by regime propagandists – ed.] Lukashenka broke the scheme. He pulled out the cornerstone – our Belarus. He severed the sanitary cordon. With the people’s support, he declared that Russia would not be destroyed. That was the first blow of our great Russian counteroffensive. A bold partisan raid. Now we are engaged in a frontal combat. Batska struck the first blow in the Special Military Operation.”

In turn, pro-regime political analyst Andrei Lazutkin seized on the “parade theme” during the 13 May 13 stream “Azaronak. Directly,” using it to praise Putin and Xi Jinping: “The Chinese leader’s attendance of the parade is a huge victory for Putin. All those threats – terrorism, drone strikes – were aimed more at discouraging the Chinese than anyone else.” He criticised the Trump administration’s sanctions on China, predicting strained relations: “You will never bend Chinese diplomacy with such crude pressure. Trump is adjusting his approach, but the Chinese did not take it kindly to those antics. That is why Trump will have trouble with China.”

Meanwhile, propagandists had to “deal with” an incident that occurred during Victory Day celebrations on 9 May in Mahiliow: several teenage girls (13–15 years old) gave the middle finger to the fireworks, while a 13-year-old boy filmed it and posted the video online. The teenagers were quickly identified, and a Telegram channel linked to security forces reported that “repentance” videos had been recorded. “SB” columnist Pavel Minchanka blamed the incident on families, schools, and society at large, claiming a failure to instil the importance of the victory legacy: “Not long ago, we nearly lost an entire generation to alien values. These boys and girls became victims of a hybrid war being waged against us. But we endured and turned things around. The rise in patriotic clubs is just one sign. Still, it is clear that efforts in patriotic education need to intensify,” he concluded.  Lazutkin hinted that the teens may have been coordinated by some “group,” which he used to call for serious government measures.

On 12 May, former Lithuanian presidential candidate Eduardas Vaitkus visited Minsk for a meeting with the leadership of the pro-Lukashenka “Belaya Rus” party. He claimed that President Gitanas Nauseda had been “illegitimately elected” and that the Lithuanian government was on a path to “destroying Lithuanians and Lithuanian statehood.” Lukashenka-controlled media eagerly amplified these statements and framed Vaitkus’ actions as heroic. Azaronak claimed that by coming to Belarus and denouncing Lithuania’s “vile democracy,” Vaitkus had “chosen freedom,” declaring that Belarus is the “Ark of Salvation.” Propagandist Liudmila Hladkaya called him a “true patriot of his homeland” because he wanted “Lithuanians to be masters in their own country.”

Regarding another neighbouring country, propagandists showed “no illusions” either. “SB” columnist Anton Papou described Poland’s election campaign as “madness” and contrasted its scandals and public dissatisfaction with the alleged “true Belarusian popular rule,” which supposedly enables conscious decision-making. He lamented the marginalisation of “true patriotic politicians” trying to “pull Poland back from the brink” and “restore good relations with Belarus and Russia.”

The regime also could not ignore the intrigue surrounding Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul. On May 15, propagandist Kseniya Lebiadzeva forecast: “The khokhols [a derogatory name for Ukrainians used by Russian and Belarusian propagandists – ed.] and their comrades might talk to the Russians, but there will be no peace. It’s not profitable — for Zelenskyy or the EU. They are preparing for a full-blown war. Talks are just a delay tactic. Everyone knows a long ceasefire is still a long way off — years, even.” Anton Papou echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Zelenskyy’s visit to Istanbul was aimed at sabotaging the talks: “In doing so, he and his European handlers hope to portray Moscow as unwilling to negotiate, which would justify a new wave of sanctions and maybe even pull Trump to Kyiv’s and Brussels’ side. However, the U.S. will likely wash its hands of the whole affair if the talks collapse. In that case, Ukraine will either cease to exist or be forced back to the negotiating table — under worse terms.”

Notably, Belarusian authorities still aspire to play a role in the negotiations — as a mediator or at least a facilitator. “We are ready to contribute to a stable and peaceful future in our region — for the good of the three brotherly nations and peoples,” said the Foreign Ministry in a 15 May statement. It emphasised that Russia and Ukraine are not merely neighbours but “brotherly states” to Belarus, and claimed that Minsk had always consistently supported “open and direct dialogue.” “Belarus, for its part, is ready to support the process of peaceful settlement. We are ready to do our part in shaping a stable and peaceful future in our region for the benefit of the three brotherly countries and peoples.” On 17 May, Lukashenka’s press secretary Natallia Eismant echoed this message: “Regarding the possibility of organising the next rounds of negotiations, I’ll stress the main point: Belarus has never asked to be a mediator — neither in the past nor now. This is our principled position. But if our neighbours – our brothers in Ukraine – need this and all parties agree, we will organise the process better than any other country.”

On 16 May, during his meeting with Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov in Minsk, Lukashenka once again declared that Belarus and Russia have no intention of attacking anyone: “We are ready for the [Zapad-2025] exercises. We hide nothing from anyone. These are our drills, and they are defensive in nature. We do not intend to attack anyone, as some suggest.” At the same time, he warned that “two countries are not joking” and promised not to let down “our Russian brothers.” Lukashenka also thanked Russia for training Belarusian troops: “I am very grateful that you do not just train our military specialists and not only allow them to participate, but treat them as equals. They sit at the same desks. They learn everything your soldiers do. That is extremely important and highly appreciated. This level of trust — especially in matters of security and defence — is unique. Russia does not have this kind of cooperation with anyone else.”

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Best regards,
iSANS team