Belarus Review by iSANS — May 18, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 11 and 17 May, 56 drone flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace: 55 Russian and one Ukrainian. During the week, sorties by Belarusian Air Force duty units were also recorded to intercept the drones. According to preliminary information, at least two UAVs were destroyed.

On 11 May, a meeting on state armament programmes and the state defence order was held, according to the press service of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The discussion focused on the level of technical modernisation of the Belarusian armed forces following implementation of the 2021–2025 State Armament Programme, as well as objectives for 2026–2030. During the meeting, Lukashenka stated that it is impossible to solve defence tasks without equipping the troops with modern weapons: “We must have the weapons that we can use and know how to operate”. He also stressed that procurement and development of armaments should take into account the characteristics of Belarusian territory as a potential theatre of military operations.

According to Lukashenka, over the past five years, the share of modern equipment in the Belarusian armed forces increased from 40% to nearly 45%, as indicated by the First Information TV channel. The share of annually renewed equipment reportedly reached 2%.

According to Lukashenka’s press service, the draft of the new State Armament Programme prioritises electronic warfare and counter-battery warfare systems, reconnaissance, communications, and “small-scale” air defence.

On 12 May, Aliaksandr Lukashenka received Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin for a report, according to Lukashenka’s press service. According to Lukashenka, the main reason for the meeting was personnel policy in the Belarusian armed forces: “We agreed that you would seriously consider with whom you will continue serving”. The meeting also addressed the combat readiness inspection conducted in 2026. Lukashenka said he expects continued work on eliminating shortcomings identified during the inspection. He also added: “We will selectively mobilise units in order to prepare them for war. God willing, it can be avoided.”

From 12 May to 5 June, training exercises with reservists from the territorial troops of the Lepel and Chashniki districts in Vitsebsk region are being held, according to the Ministry of Defence. The exercises are expected to include a set of mobilisation measures aimed at forming territorial defence command bodies and territorial troop units. It was noted that reservist training would focus on joint actions with Interior Ministry personnel and volunteers from the people’s militia. In total, around 270 reservists were called up.

From 12 to 14 May, a command-and-staff exercise with military command bodies and technical support units was held under the leadership of the Deputy Defence Minister for Armaments, according to the Ministry of Defence. The theme of the exercise was “management of technical support forces and assets during preparation and conduct of a Belarusian armed forces crisis response operation”. During the manoeuvres, participants practised restoring damaged military equipment, organising deliveries of armoured weapons and equipment to units for replenishment, ensuring survivability of technical support assets, and eliminating the consequences of air strikes. Reservists were called up from the reserve to participate in the exercise.

On 15 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia continues “attempts to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine”. According to him, this concerns additional contacts between the Russian side and Aliaksandr Lukashenka, aimed at convincing Minsk to join new Russian aggressive operations. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine possesses details of conversations between Russia and Belarus. According to him, Russia is considering operational plans from Belarusian territory in two directions: either against the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries. At the same time, on 15 May Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange via Belarus under a “205 for 205” formula mediated by the UAE.

On 14 May, during a meeting in Aachen, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya urged European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to maintain EU support for Belarusian independent media, civil society, cultural and educational initiatives amid ongoing discussions in Brussels on extending funding programmes for Belarusian democratic organisations and journalists. Tsikhanouskaya stressed that independent Belarusian media and NGOs continue operating “despite pressure, repression and exile” and called continued European support essential.

On 13 May, Tsikhanouskaya held a phone conversation in Vilnius with U.S. Special Envoy John Coale and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Chris Smith, thanking the Trump administration for its role in securing the release of more than 500 political prisoners in Belarus. Coale described his exchange with Tsikhanouskaya as a “good conversation” and thanked her for supporting U.S. efforts regarding Belarus.

On 15 May, Lukashenka met in Minsk with American evangelical preacher Franklin Graham, head of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association. During the meeting, Lukashenka emphasised Belarus’s “interconfessional peace” and highlighted the presence of 850 Protestant communities in the country. He also thanked Graham for humanitarian support from the United States and asked him to convey to Donald Trump that “in Belarus, he has reliable friends and supporters”.

Franklin Graham’s visit to Belarus culminated in the large-scale Protestant “Festival of Hope” at Chyzhouka Arena on 16–17 May, organised with participation from more than 700 evangelical churches. Attendance significantly exceeded capacity, with thousands unable to enter the arena despite limited official publicity. In an interview with state television, Graham compared Lukashenka to Donald Trump, calling both “direct” and suggesting they “would become friends” if they met. Graham also praised Minsk’s development under Lukashenka and expressed hope that Belarus could help facilitate peace talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

On 15 May, Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation focused on bilateral trade, defence cooperation and upcoming joint activities in these areas.

The situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border remains without political de-escalation. The administration of Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated that only technical contacts on border-related issues are possible, while conditions for political dialogue with Minsk do not exist. At the same time, Lithuania for the first time openly indicated U.S. pressure regarding the transit of Belarusian potash fertilisers: Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys acknowledged such activity from Washington, although Nausėda later softened the statement. Against this backdrop, Minsk published a film about Lithuanian citizen Miroslavas Trockis, detained in 2024 and sentenced recently to 15 years in prison on espionage charges. The publication of the case may be linked to a possible future exchange.

Pressure on the border continues. On 13 May, Vilnius airport was temporarily closed because of meteorological balloons flying from Belarus, one of which carrying 9,000 packs of cigarettes reached Kaunas.

Latvia remains the main direction of migration pressure, recording 624 crossing attempts between 10 and 17 May, while Poland, after a prolonged pause, registered two spikes this week of 20 attempts each.
According to official statistics published on 18 May, Belarus’s GDP returned to growth in January–April 2026, increasing by 0.2% year-on-year after declining in the first quarter. Industrial output for the four-month period nevertheless fell by 2.5%, while investments in fixed capital declined by 0.6%. At the same time, retail turnover rose by 6.2%, and real disposable incomes increased by 7.6% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the government’s annual forecast target.
Recently released journalist Andrzej Poczobut stated on 17 May that he intends to return to Hrodna before the autumn congress of the Union of Poles in Belarus. According to Poczobut, the possibility of returning to Belarus was a key condition for accepting his release deal, which was achieved with the involvement of U.S. diplomacy during ongoing contacts between Washington and Minsk.

An unexpected visit by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa to Belarus on 14 May triggered speculation in Zimbabwean media and social networks. The trip reportedly took place without the usual official ceremonies amid internal debate over constitutional amendments that could extend Mnangagwa’s rule until 2030. Social media rumours alleged that the president had left the country carrying gold in bars, though no evidence of this was presented publicly.

Almost two and a half years after completion of a trial, it became known about the verdict of Pavel Kaberda, an IT specialist convicted in a politically motivated case for financing activities that the authorities recognised as “extremist”. Pavel’s case was considered in January 2024 by the Hrodna Regional Court. The charges were based on monetary donations via PayPal in 2020-2022 to funds and initiatives such as BYSOL, BY_help, BYPOL, and others. Most of the donations ranged from 10 to 50 Euro, and there were about ten transfers in total. Kaberda acknowledged the facts of the transfers and explained he wanted to support people who suffered during the protests or lost their jobs. On 19 January 2024, Kaberda was sentenced to five years of imprisonment in a high-security colony. In addition to the detention, a fine of 300 basic units (12,000 rubles or approximately 3,600 Euro) was imposed. His apartment, money and household appliances were seized to ensure the payment of the fine. On 24 May 2024, Kaberda was added to the “list of extremists”.

On 8 May, the Minsk City Court sentenced four people in absentia. Yauhenia Tachytskaya was sentenced to five years of imprisonment for “facilitating extremist activities”. In October 2024, she was convicted in absentia in the Machulishch case on five criminal counts, including “high treason” and “financing a terrorist organisation.” At that time, she was sentenced to 15 years of imprisonment and a fine of 1,000 basic units (approximately 12,000 Euro). Her overall sentence now is 17 years of imprisonment and a fine of 67,000 rubles (approximately 20,150 Euro). Katsyaryna Vostrava was sentenced to five years of imprisonment and a fine of 27,000 rubles (approximately 8,120 Euro) for “facilitating extremist activities”. Antanina Naidovich, in addition to “facilitating extremist activities”, was accused of “insulting a government official”. She was sentenced to six years of imprisonment and fined 29,250 rubles (approximately 8,800 Euro). Andrei Balmakov was also sentenced. Presumably, it is a lawyer Andrei Balmakov, who defended individuals in “political” cases after the 2020 protests. He was detained in March 2025 on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”. He was held in the KGB pre-trial detention centre until February 2026, after which he was transferred to pre-trial detention centre No. 1. The essence of the charges against him is unknown.

On 5 May, the KGB recognised the Belarusian clothing brand Znivien, the online store The Krama Store and the LVS Language School as “extremist formations”. Znivien is a Belarusian clothing brand founded after the events of 2020. It produced clothes with Belarusian and political symbols, as well as prints on the theme of emigration, national identity and protests. After the founders moved to Poland, the brand oriented itself primarily towards the Belarusian audience abroad. LVS Language School is an online foreign language school registered in Warsaw. It offers distance learning in Polish, English, German, French, Spanish and Italian for students from different countries.

On 7 May, the Hrodna Regional Court considered a criminal case against Aliaksandr Zubryk in absentia. He was found guilty of inciting social hatred, actively participating in actions that grossly violate public order, insulting Lukashenka, insulting a government official, and abusing state symbols. The court sentenced him to three and a half years of imprisonment. It is not known what exactly Zubryk was accused of.

Andrzej Poczobut, a former political prisoner, journalist, and Polish community activist, intends to return to Hrodna after his health improves. Explaining his motivation, he spoke about the history and activities of the Union of Poles in Belarus. “The Union of Poles is the only stronghold of Polish identity in public life today,” he said. He stressed that the organisation has managed to continue its work in the country, although it has to adhere to many regulations. More than three thousand children are currently taught Polish in community schools under the auspices of the Union. “I understand how great the risk of being imprisoned again is, but at the same time, I have no doubt that my presence in Belarus will strengthen the organisation, strengthen Polish identity and, paradoxically, may also reduce repression against Poles. That’s why I want to take this risk,” Poczobut stated.

The Department of Internal Affairs of the Minsk Regional Executive Committee announced the detention of a 39-year-old native of the Brest region, who returned to Belarus. The reason for his persecution was “insulting comments addressed to police officers”, which he posted “in one of the extremist telegram channels” while living abroad. “It was established that in the middle of 2025, he went abroad to work. He returned to the Republic of Belarus this year to recover lost documents. It was then that he was detained by law enforcement officers,” said a representative of the Department for the Minsk region of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The video published by the Department of Internal Affairs of the Minsk Regional Executive Committee contained the individual’s testimony in which he admitted his guilt and said that while abroad, he was in an “extremist community” and left comments in it. In 2025, the International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus recognised the widespread practice of “repentant videos” as a distinct form of torture.

Belarusian state television showed a story about a 35-year–old Lithuanian citizen Miroslavas Trotskis, who was sentenced on 11 March 2026 to 15 years of imprisonment in Belarus for alleged espionage and agent activities. The authors of the film claim that Miroslavas Trotskis is an agent of the Lithuanian special services with the pseudonym “Ringo”, who transported money and information on digital media to Belarus for Lithuanian “agents”. Vytis Jurkonis, a lecturer and researcher at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at Vilnius University, emphasised that it is impossible to reliably assess the plausibility of this story, but there are strange moments in it. It appeared to him that the film was released to show a person who could potentially be used in a prisoner exchange, thereby pressuring Lithuania into dialogue on the matter.

Aliaksandr Rudchyk, a former military man from Brest, was tried by the Brest Regional Court on charges of participating in terrorist activities, creating a criminal organisation, and participating in an armed conflict on the territory of a foreign state. His exact sentence is unknown. Rudchyk is 62 years old. Since 2022, he had lived outside of Belarus. It is unknown when and for what reason he returned to Belarus.

The former 49-year-old vice-mayor of Mahileu, political prisoner Uladzimir Dudarau, was released after serving his sentence. Dudarau worked in the Mahileu City Executive Committee for a long time, in 2018-2019 he was Deputy Head of the City for Construction, Housing and Communal services. In 2020, Dudarau, who had left the civil service at that time, joined presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka’s team and became coordinator of his regional initiative group. Dudarau was detained almost simultaneously with Babaryka in June 2020. The investigation stated that he had been committing apartment fraud for ten years. He was sentenced to seven and a half years of imprisonment for “fraud” and “abuse of official authority”. He was recognised as a political prisoner. Since the sentence was non-political, Dudarau could theoretically be subject to amnesty, and therefore was likely released a little earlier than scheduled.

On 11 May, the KGB added four people to the list of persons “involved in terrorist activities”. There are now 1,450 people on the list, at least 700 of them are citizens of Belarus.

Employees of the Investigative Committee searched Vasil Plyashkunov’s apartment in Mahileu. The search took place on 12 May. According to Plyashkunov, the reason for the search was his participation in the elections to the Coordination Council. Plyashkunov worked as a teacher in Mahileu. In 2020, he was sentenced to an administrative arrest for participating in protests. In 2023, he was detained by the Main Directorate for Combating Organised Crime and Corruption. After that, he left Belarus.

Voting on the elections to the Coordination Council, which started on 12 May, had to be suspended due to powerful DDoS attacks that overloaded services and disrupted the server’s operations. Later it was moved to a new server. Coordination Council Speaker Artsyom Brukhan commented that there was a “systemic cyber operation, a cyberwar” against the elections. According to him, the attack was not just on the infrastructure of the Coordination Council elections, but on the very idea of elections – “elections themselves have been destroyed in Belarus, and now they want to destroy it abroad”, he said.

On 12 May, the Homel Regional Court sentenced Stanislav Pryhodzich in absentia to five years of imprisonment and a fine of 4,500 rubles (approximately 1,350 Euro). Pryhodzich was found guilty of incitement of discord, participation in an “extremist formation”, insulting Lukashenka, insulting a government representative, and discrediting Belarus.

It became known what the Mirontsav family from Minsk is being charged with. Lukerya Mirontsava and her daughter Veranika, who were arrested in December 2025, were detained on charges of an attempt to facilitate extremist activities. Lukerya and Veranika are the mother and sister of Victoryja, Anastasia and Aliaksandra Mirontsavy, who in August 2020 stood up for people who were beaten by riot police officers. Aliaksandra managed to leave the country, while Victoryja and Anastasia were detained in October 2020. Anastasia was sentenced to two years of imprisonment, and Victoryja was sentenced to two and a half years of imprisonment. They were accused of actively participating in group actions that grossly violate public order, and violence or threat of violence against an employee of the internal affairs bodies. Victoryja was also accused of resisting an internal affairs officer. In 2022, both sisters were released after serving their full sentences.

It became known about the release of BelTA Deputy Director General for Ideology Siarhei Aderykha. He was arrested in October 2021 and sentenced to five years of imprisonment for “abuse of power”. Aderykha was accused of passing information to Anatol Kotau of the National Anti-Crisis Management, including on the travel schedule of Lukashenka or other officials. This information was published in the insider channel “Nick and Mike”. He was not paid anything for this information. Aderykha was recognised as a political prisoner. His imprisonment term was supposed to end around July 2026, but it became known that he was already free. Since the charge used to convict Aderykha was not an “extremist” one, an amnesty could have been applied to him.

1,118 Belarusian citizens were added to the Russian search database from October 2025 to April 2026. Now there are 5,880 Belarusians in it. Among those put on the wanted list were journalists, activists, politicians, and former political prisoners who were forced to leave Belarus. For example, Victoryja Kulsha, who was released by the authorities on a “pardon” and expelled from Belarus in December 2025. Before her release, a new criminal case was opened against her – about the disruption of the colony’s work. Human rights defenders noted that this was the first known case when a political prisoner was charged with this offence.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs added 17 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among them were journalist Tsina Palynskaya and her daughter Marharyta Rabinovich, who were sentenced to two years of imprisonment in March for creating or participating in an “extremist formation”. There are now 6,620 names on the “extremist list”. Palynskaya and her eldest daughter were detained in May 2025. The criminal case against them may be related to the recognition of Professor Andrei Vardamatski’s “Belarusian Analytical Workshop”, engaged in sociological surveys, as an “extremist formation”. Palynskaya had not been involved in journalism for a long time, she raised her daughters and worked in archives, including Russian ones, to create biographical sketches, family books, and stories about participants in the Second World War.

Hanna Fedaronak, an activist of the Belarusian diaspora in Warsaw, who had to flee Belarus to Poland with her children at the end of 2020 due to persecution, is under severe psychological pressure. Unknown people arranged fundraising for her “funeral”, sent funeral wreaths and threatened her. She is currently preparing a report to the Warsaw police. She linked the transnational repression against her to her active assistance to political prisoners and participation in the elections to the Coordination Council.

On 12 May, the Council of Europe information centre aimed at Belarusian citizens officially opened in Vilnius at the Martynas Mažvydas National Library. Belarusians will be able to learn about the work and values of the CoE, as well as gain access to the programs of the CoE Contact Group, a structure that builds cooperation with representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces and civil society. The idea of opening the information centre appeared in November 2024. The then Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and Deputy Secretary General of the Council of Europe Bjørn Berge signed an agreement to this effect in Strasbourg, and a year later, the Lithuanian Seimas ratified it. Among other guests, the inauguration was attended by Secretary General of the Council of Europe Alain Berset, who stressed that this centre would bring Belarusians and the Council of Europe even closer together. Opening remarks were made by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys and Speaker of the Lithuanian Seimas Juozas Olekas, as well as leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

On 16 March, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; the Working Group on Arbitrary Detention; the Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances; the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions; the Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression; the Independent Expert on the enjoyment of all human rights by older persons; the Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism and the Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment sent a Joint Allegation Letter of the UN Special Procedures mandate holders to the Government of Belarus. UN experts brought to the attention of Belarusian Government information they have received concerning serious allegations of arbitrary and prolonged incommunicado detention of inmates in punishment cells and denial of adequate medical and psychological care in the Correctional Colony No. 1 in Navapolatsk. It was noted that Belarusian places of deprivation of liberty remain notorious for their bad conditions. Law enforcement bodies and prison authorities continue to systematically expose persons detained on politically motivated grounds to gross human rights violations amounting to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and, in certain circumstances, to enforced disappearance. Detainees reportedly are left little time for personal activities, such as writing letters or reading. Even the few letters they are allowed to send and rare calls they make go under supervision. The prison staff reads all correspondence, and phone calls are often listened to. Prison administration can arbitrarily limit the correspondence of inmates, and there are still no effective mechanisms to challenge such actions of the administration. Moreover, the victim filing a complaint while in detention risks retaliation in the form of physical punishment and psychological abuse. Relatives are frequently left without reliable information on the fate and whereabouts of their detained family members, while detainees are reportedly prevented from receiving visits from relatives and, in some instances, from their legal counsel. In this context, UN experts recalled that, under international human rights law, prolonged incommunicado detention may amount to torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and, in certain circumstances, to enforced disappearance. They requested clarification in this regard from the Government of Belarus and urged that all necessary measures be taken to prevent the re-occurrence of alleged violations vis-à-vis remaining inmates in the places of deprivation of liberty in Belarus and in the event that the investigations into the alleged past violations support or suggest these allegations to be correct, to ensure the accountability of any persons responsible for them.

The III Congress on Political Prisoners in Belarus will be held on 21-22 May in Vilnius. The event will be organised by the Office of the Democratic Forces of Belarus in the Czech Republic under the patronage of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. The choice of place and time has a symbolic meaning. The congress is timed to coincide with the Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners in Belarus — 21 May, when activist Vitold Ashurak died in prison in 2021. Lithuania became the country that received the first groups of political prisoners forcibly displaced by the Lukashenka regime after their release.

The EU Special Representative for Human Rights, Kajsa Ollongren, will cover the fate of Belarusian political prisoners in particularly vulnerable situations, people with serious illnesses and disabilities in her social media accounts for five days before the Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners in Belarus. She posted the first video on Instagram on 15 May, calling for joining the expression of solidarity with political prisoners and demanding their immediate and unconditional release.

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Best regards, iSANS team