Belarus Review by iSANS — March 9, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 2 and 8 March, ten Russian UAV flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace. On-duty aviation assets of the AF RB were not involved in interception. There were no reports of UAVs being destroyed or crashing.

The combat readiness inspection conducted by the Ministry of Defence is ongoing. On 4 March, in a comment to the outlet Hrodzenskaya Prauda, Commander of the Western Operational Command Vadzim Surau stated that the current inspection is “the first in the history of the Belarusian Armed Forces on such a scale. Previously, inspections covered individual formations or units. Now the entire system is being tested.”

On 5 March, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin visited the Hrodna garrison, where he observed the inspection. He also handed over a package of directive documents to Commander of the Western Operational Command Vadzim Surau in preparation for the next stage of the inspection. It was noted that in the near future the troops will have to prepare for an exercise, occupy designated starting areas, and remain ready to carry out training-combat tasks.

On 2 March, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported that Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich was on a visit to Ethiopia. During the visit, meetings were held with the Commander of the Ethiopian Air Force and the head of the Main Directorate for International Relations and Military Cooperation of the Ethiopian Ministry of Defence. The discussions focused on issues of bilateral military cooperation of mutual interest, with an emphasis on practical measures.

On 3 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka made new appointments within the State Secretariat of the Security Council, according to the BelTA news agency. Aliaksandr Neviarouski was appointed First Deputy State Secretary of the Security Council, having previously served as Deputy State Secretary. Andrei Harbatenka was appointed Deputy State Secretary of the Security Council; prior to this appointment he headed the Military Academy.

During the meeting, Lukashenka commented on the combat readiness inspection initiated on his instruction. According to him, “the main conclusion we must draw from this inspection is that we must properly train the officer corps.” “There will be no ideal servicemen, even in wartime. We see this in Ukraine on both sides. This is my personal conclusion, and not only mine. People will be different: some well prepared, some less prepared. But I warn everyone in advance: those who are well prepared for war will live. Those who do things carelessly will not,” Lukashenka said. He therefore instructed the new representatives of the State Secretariat of the Security Council to “strictly oversee the training of our servicemen not only in the units of the Armed Forces but also at the (Military Academy).”

On 4 March, as part of the combat readiness inspection conducted on the instruction of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the 8th Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defence Brigade, stationed in Staryya Darohi (Minsk region), underwent inspection. This was reported by the BelTA news agency. The inspection in the brigade focused on the maintenance procedures for military and special equipment, as well as weapons and stored supplies. According to First Deputy State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Neviarouski, 14 pieces of equipment were selectively taken out of long-term storage to conduct a control run of 15 km. He also noted that particular attention during the inspection is being paid to the training of junior officers. At the same time, “certain issues” have been identified with the officers who entered service through conscription. “The command is aware of this and is conducting systematic work to improve their training.” This refers to graduates of military departments at civilian universities who are called up for service in the Belarusian army. According to a representative of the State Control Committee who participated in the inspection, no “serious issues” were identified in the brigade.

On 4 March, during a visit to Vietnam by a Belarusian military delegation led by the Head of the Department of International Military Cooperation Valery Ravenka, the first meeting of the Belarus–Vietnam Bilateral Working Group on Military Cooperation took place – the first such meeting in the history of bilateral relations. This was reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defence. The parties noted the constructive nature of their interaction, reviewed the results of joint activities in 2025, and examined proposals for the final version of the Cooperation Plan for 2026 in detail. The focus was on implementing a set of measures with an emphasis on practical outcomes.

A battalion-level tactical exercise with one of the units of the 120th Mechanized Brigade is taking place at the 227th Combined-Arms Training Ground. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported this on 6 March. The exercise scenario focuses on conducting defensive combat operations. During the manoeuvres, servicemen employ UAVs, armoured vehicles, artillery and small arms. Aviation support for the units is provided by army aviation crews.

On 4–6 March, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya participated in a series of events in Brussels focused on cooperation between Belarusian democratic forces and European institutions and political parties. On 4 March, the “8+100” Forum took place, organised by the European Parliament together with the Office of Tsikhanouskaya. The event brought together eight Belarusian democratic parties — the United Civic Party, the Green Party, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada), the BPF Party, the “For Freedom” movement, the Belarusian Christian Democracy, the “Country for Life” movement, as well as the parties “Our Party” and “Together” — and more than 100 European political organisations. In her address, Tsikhanouskaya called for strengthening Belarusian political parties as the foundation of a future democratic system and expanding their cooperation with European partners. On 6 March, she spoke at a meeting of the EU Consultative Group with Belarusian democratic forces and civil society — an official platform for dialogue between the Belarusian community and EU institutions. From the Belarusian side, participants included representatives of the United Transitional Cabinet, the Coordination Council, and civil society organisations. Tsikhanouskaya thanked the EU for its support for repressed Belarusians, assistance to the released political prisoners, independent media, and NGOs, and stated that democratic forces are already preparing for a potential “window of opportunity” by building political infrastructure and mechanisms of legitimate representation in anticipation of possible future change.

On 4 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka met with the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Belarus, breaking a four-day silence regarding the military operation carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran. During the open part of the meeting, Lukashenka sharply and emotionally condemned what he described as the “treacherous aggression” of Israel and the United States, placing particular emphasis on the elimination of Ali Khamenei. At the same time, Lukashenka offered Iran “assistance based on the position” of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It should be noted that the MFA’s position itself remains neutral, calling on the parties to resolve the conflict through dialogue. According to the Iranian ambassador, the meeting was largely an exchange of views and included Lukashenka’s expressions of condolences.

In addition, Belarusian officials expressed support for Azerbaijan amid its escalation with Iran. In separate phone calls, this position was conveyed to their Azerbaijani counterparts by Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn, Chief of the General Staff Paval Muraveika, and Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou.

On 8 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka hinted that a U.S. delegation may soon visit Minsk again. He made the remark while visiting (for the first time in his life) the restaurant chain Mak.by – a McDonald’s analogue established after the U.S. fast-food chain left Belarus in 2022. Lukashenka suggested taking the Americans to Mak.by as a demonstration of Belarus’s independence and its ability to produce similar products: “Be sure to bring them here… Belarusians work here, Belarusian equipment, Belarusian product.” Against this backdrop, the U.S. President’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coale, thanked Lukashenka in a post on X for pardoning 18 political prisoners.

At the same time, the situation on the Lithuania–Belarus border remains in a stalemate, with the intensity of the crisis going up and down as the parties await further steps.

In particular, the dispute over Lithuanian trucks detained in Belarus is approaching a new point of tension. According to the Lithuanian transport association Linava, the four-month storage period for vehicles at special parking sites in Belarus – provided for under Belarusian law – expires on 10 March, after which Minsk had previously threatened confiscation. While the Lithuanian side has not received formal notification, it considers confiscation a possible additional pressure instrument and is assessing potential response measures.

Minsk’s position has not been updated since December 2025 and continues to emphasise readiness to resolve the issue through bilateral negotiations at political rather than technical level.

Meanwhile, Lithuania is intensifying its rhetoric regarding threats originating from Belarus. On 7 March, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated that a military threat exists from the Belarusian direction, effectively treating Belarus as part of a unified threat framework together with Russia. In this context, he called for open discussion of nuclear deterrence and stressed the need to prepare for repelling an attack without self-imposed restrictions.

Also on 6 March, Lithuania’s intelligence service assessed in its annual report that if sanctions were partially eased, Belarus’s economic resilience might increase, but this would not offset the country’s deepening dependence on Russia. At the same time, Minsk is unlikely to soften its authoritarian policies, will continue using political prisoners as a bargaining tool, and will keep denying involvement in hostile actions against Lithuania.

On the Polish direction, the situation remains calm. Following attempts to test the hybrid migration pressure channel in late February, only one attempted illegal border crossing was recorded between 1 and 8 March (according to Polish Border Guard Service, Straż Graniczna). On 5 March, Poland’s Minister of the Interior Affairs and Administration extended the buffer zone along the border for another three months. In addition, from 10 March, a technical restriction on the use of airspace near the border with Belarus and Ukraine was extended.

According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, at least 183 people have been detained in connection with the Belarusian Hajun case. These are only the confirmed detainees, but there are probably many more. In early February, human rights activists reported that at least 175 people had been detained in the case. Trials are held almost every day. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has added 155 people who have been convicted of “facilitating extremist activities” to its list of “extremists”. Most of them were involved in the Belarusian Hajun case. According to human rights defenders, most of the accused were sentenced to restriction of freedom, but some have been sentenced to imprisonment.

Victoryja Kulsha, who was released on parole in December 2025 along with a group of other political prisoners and expelled from Belarus, had been charged with disrupting the work of a penal colony before her release, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. This was the sixth criminal case against her and the first time such a case was opened against a political prisoner.

On 27 February, Valyantsyna Naumava, a political prisoner from Hrodna who was detained in the autumn of 2025 on charges of slandering Aliaksandr Lukashenka, was charged with new criminal offences. She is now accused of complicity in a crime, inciting social discord by a group of individuals, facilitating extremist activities, including repeated acts, and slandering Lukashenka.

Media managers from Baranavichi, Uladzimir Yanukevich and Andrei Pakalenka, who were found guilty of “high treason” on 26 February and sentenced to 14 years and 12 years of imprisonment respectively, were recognised as political prisoners. According to human rights defenders, the criminal prosecution of Yanukevich and Pakalenka is a continuation of the repression against Intex-Press, Bar24.by, and independent Belarusian media and journalists in general. The statement was signed by Belarusian Association of Journalists, Belarusian PEN, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, Human Constanta, “Legal Initiative”, and Lawtrend. The international organisation Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said it was shocked by the sentences handed down to Uladzimir Yanukevich, the Director and Editor-in-chief of the regional publication Intex-Press, and Andrei Pakalenka, the Deputy Director. “This verdict is designed to perpetuate the climate of terror surrounding independent media in the country. Authorities should immediately release Yanukevich and Pakalenka, along with all imprisoned journalists,» said Anna Brakha, CPJ’s Europe and Central Asia senior researcher. The CPJ reported that it had sent an email to the Investigative Committee of Belarus asking for comment on the case, but did not receive a reply.

The Belarusian PEN published a statement about the systematic confiscation and disappearance of author’s manuscripts belonging to political prisoners. This practice is not only aimed at depriving people of their right to speak, but also at destroying their human and cultural identity, as well as the intellectual and cultural heritage which was created in conditions of isolation. By destroying these manuscripts, the state seeks to prevent authors from sharing their stories and maintaining their connection with society, as well as to erase the evidence of the era and society’s right to remember. These violations of human rights, norms of international and national law represent a systematic practice of targeted suppression of human dignity and an attempt to erase the voices of those who dare to think and create in the face of repression. The systemic destruction of writers’ manuscripts in Belarus goes far beyond the violation of cultural rights and represents a practice aimed at destroying individuals and their intellectual and creative presence. “We urge the Belarusian authorities, particularly the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Department of Penitentiary Services, to immediately stop the practice of confiscating the manuscripts of political prisoners, return all confiscated manuscripts to their authors (copyright holders), ensure the implementation of the cultural rights of political prisoners, and bring the practice into line with international and national laws,” the statement read. Belarusian PEN also appealed to the international community, governments, as well as to the UN Special Rapporteur on Cultural Rights, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus, and UNESCO, asking them to support its demands.

The Belarusian PEN was recognised as an “extremist formation”. Thedecision was made by the KGB on 27 February. The Belarusian PEN is the oldest Belarusian human rights organisation dedicated to defending freedom of speech. It was founded in 1989. Both Belarusian Nobel laureates, Sviatlana Alexievich and Ales Bialiatski, are members of the Belarusian PEN.

It became known that political prisoner Alena Malinouskaya was not released after serving her sentence of four years of imprisonment in full. On 31 August 2025, she was supposed to be released, but instead, she was transferred from the colony to Minsk and charged with inciting hatred and calling for sanctions. On 6 March, the Minsk City Court found her guilty and sentenced her to four years and nine months of imprisonment, but since she had already spent more than four years behind bars, she was released in the courtroom.

The Minsk City Court delivered a verdict in absentia against Victoryja Bakunovich. She was accused of creating an “extremist formation” and facilitating “extremist activities”. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, she was sentenced to six years of imprisonment in a special regime colony. Bakunovich was mentioned in the case of the display of the national Belarusian and Ukrainian flags on Lesya Ukrainka Street in Minsk in August 2022. Five people were detained in this case. Most of them were sentenced to five years of imprisonment. Two weeks after their detention, the Ministry of Internal Affairs recognised the “xinkalik” channel on the Zello application as an “extremist formation”. Bakunovich was listed among the individuals involved in this “formation”.

Hleb Panasyuk from Svetlahorsk, who had been living in Poland for several years, was sentenced to five years of imprisonment. Panasyuk returned to Belarus on 8 October 2025 to visit his parents. On 9 October, he last contacted his friends in Poland, calling from the train station in Brest to inform them that he was boarding a train to Svetlahorsk. After that, he went missing. His friends began searching for him. In December, it was reported that Panasyuk was in detention in Homel Detention Centre No. 3. Prior to that, he had been held in Homel’s pre-trial detention centre for administrative violations. The specific charges against him are still being clarified. Human rights defenders have once again warned about the dangers of returning to Belarus.

Aleh Khamenka, a journalist, musician and radio host, was sentenced to three years of imprisonment and fined more than 20,000 rubles (approximately 6,000 Euro). He was found guilty of “facilitation of extremist activities”. According to the case materials, the charges were based on his continuous collaboration with Belaruskaje Radiyo Racya. On 5 March, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) called on the Belarusian authorities to immediately release journalist Aleh Khamenka along with all imprisoned journalists.

Political prisoner Mikalai Autukhovich was transferred from correctional colony No. 14 in Navasady back to Hrodna prison No. 1, where he had previously been held. The decision to transfer him to the prison regime was made by a visiting court directly at the colony on 23 January. The charges as well as the duration of the new prison regime remain unknown. Autukhovich was transferred to the Navasady colony at the end of 2025, as his time in prison regime, assigned by the previous sentence, came to an end. Mikalai Autukhovich, a 63-year-old veteran of the Afghan war, former entrepreneur and public figure, was detained in December 2020. In October 2022, a court sentenced him to 25 years in prison on charges of high treason, aiding terrorism, attempting to seize power, and a number of other offences. According to the sentence, he was to serve the first five years in prison. This is Autukhovich’s third prison term — he was previously behind bars in 2005–2008 and 2009–2014.

On 5 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree granting amnesty to 18 people, including 15 political prisoners. This was reported by the state news agency BelTA, which stated that the pardoned individuals had “expressed remorse”. According to BelTA, 15 of the pardoned individuals were serving sentences for “extremist crimes”, a term used by the Belarusian authorities to refer to politically motivated convictions. “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported that 11 of the pardoned individuals were women, six of whom have children, including children with disabilities who require medical rehabilitation. One of the women is in the late stages of pregnancy, and another was convicted at the age of 16. According to Lukashenka’s press service, all the pardoned individuals had allegedly submitted petitions for pardon, admitted their guilt, and expressed their willingness to “live a law-abiding life”.

Since 2020, 605 political prisoners have been “pardoned” in Belarus. During the same period, 4,499 people have been granted the status of political prisoner. These are people of various ages and social backgrounds from across Belarus, who have been convicted for various criminal offences. “Forced expulsion of released political prisoners from Belarus is a new form of repression. They are also facing repression from the Belarusian regime abroad,” Volha Zazulinskaya, the Social Policy Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, stated in her report at a meeting of the Belarus-EU Consultative Group in Brussels on 6 March. She underlined that the authorities announced the pardon of 293 people in 2025, but human rights defenders confirmed only about 200 names. Of these, 175 were forcibly expelled from Belarus.

On 5 March, the KGB updated the list of individuals involved in terrorist activities. Three Belarusian citizens and four Sudanese citizens were added to the list. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, there are currently 1,424 people on the list of “terrorists,” and about 700 of them are Belarusians.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs has added 20 more people to the list of Belarusian, foreign, and stateless persons involved in extremist activities. The list now includes 6,373 names.

In the Hrodna region, pressure continues to be exerted on the relatives and friends of the activists who have left the country. It was reported that the security forces are interested in the activists’ personal lives and are offering them cooperation in exchange for ending the pressure on their families and allowing them to return to Belarus.

The trial of journalist Pavel Dabravolski is held behind closed doors. The consideration of his  criminal case started on 27 February at the Minsk City Court. He is accused of treason. Dabravolski left Belarus in 2021, but returned to Minsk in October 2024. In January 2025, he was detained. Last autumn, he was transferred from the KGB pre-trial detention centre to SIZO No. 1 in Kalyadzichi. Dabravolski was a journalist with Naviny.by. He also collaborated with various independent media. During the 2020 protests, he was detained and brought to administrative responsibility in connection with his professional activities.

The Minsk City Court has sentenced Maryja Shakura, the former captain of the Belarusian national rugby team, to restriction of freedom for the alleged “facilitation of extremist activities”. It is unknown when the criminal case was initiated and whether the athlete was in custody. Shakura was a famous Belarusian rugby player, a bronze medalist at the 2017 European Beach Rugby Championship. In 2020, she was detained for ten days.

Political prisoner Alena Pankova died. In the summer of 2025, she was tried for participating in protests. The Oktyabrski District Court of Minsk sentenced her to restriction of freedom. The cause of death has not yet been announced. Her acquaintance said that her death was absolutely sudden. It is also unknown whether she had any health complaints. However, it is known that those sentenced to a restriction of freedom, visiting a doctor often requires additional approvals and permits. Pankova was a geographer by education. She had an 18-year-old son.

Journalist Tsina Palynskaya and her daughter Marharyta Rabinovich were sentenced to two years of imprisonment on charges of creating or participating in an “extremist formation.” They were also fined. Palynskaya and her older daughter were detained in May 2025. It was previously reported that the criminal case against them may be related to the recognition of Professor Andrei Vardomatski’s sociological centre “Belarusskaya Analiticheskaya Masterskaya” (Belarusian Analytical Workshop) as an “extremist formation.” Palynskaya had not worked as a journalist for a long time, instead raising her daughters and working in archives, including Russian ones, and fulfilling private orders to create biographical essays, family books, and stories about participants in World War II.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre published statistics on the repression of women in Belarus on the International Women’s Day. Today, there are 164 female political prisoners in custory. Since 2020, at least 1,917 women have been convicted in criminal cases. Of these, at least 881 have been sentenced to restriction of liberty, 469 have been sent to colonies, 75 have been sentenced to restriction of liberty with referral to an open-type correctional institution, and seven have been sent to psychiatric hospitals for forced treatment. In addition, at least 9,400 women have faced administrative repression, including arrests and fines. At least 15 women behind bars have serious health problems. Among the most common charges were: participation in protests – at least 1,167 women were prosecuted under this charge; insulting a government official –  231 women were prosecuted under this charge; insulting Lukashenka – 198 women were prosecuted under this charge; aiding extremist activities – 170 women were prosecuted under this charge; inciting social discord – 148 women were prosecuted under this charge; and participation in an extremist formation –  96 women were prosecuted under this charge.

On 3 March, a group of members of the European Parliament from eleven countries sent a letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, asking her to consider linking the EU’s trade relations with Belarus to the observance of labour rights and freedom of association. The letter was initiated by Michał Kobosko, a Polish MEP and Deputy Head of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Belarus.

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Best regards, iSANS team