Belarus Review by iSANS — March 23, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 16 and 22 March at least 15 UAV flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace: two Russian and 13 Ukrainian. Most of the Ukrainian UAVs (10 units) transited into Russia on the evening of 22 March, crossing the Mahiliou region and covering between 75 and 100 km within Belarusian airspace.

Reports of UAV crashes were also received. On 21 March, the state-run outlet Mayak reported the discovery of a drone in the Homiel district. According to the report, on 20 March servicemen of the Homiel border group found the wreckage of a fixed-wing UAV in a forested area approximately one kilometre from the settlement of Chaplin (around 22 km from the Ukrainian border). The model of the UAV could not be identified.

From 19 to 25 March, a comprehensive exercise involving the troops of the Western Operational Command is being conducted under the leadership of Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveika. According to the Ministry of Defence, this represents one of the key stages of the combat readiness inspection ongoing since 26 January. The exercise is intended to rehearse the full cycle of operational command and control and to assess the readiness of units to perform their assigned tasks.

Muraveika stated that the exercise is “one of the main phases of the comprehensive inspection” and has an “exclusively defensive character.” The manoeuvres are taking place at training grounds and designated areas in the Brest and Minsk regions, at a considerable distance from the state border. The programme includes preparation of defensive lines and positions based on strongpoints and barrier systems, as well as the use of the local industrial and administrative base. It also includes practising modern methods of employing troops and strike assets, including UAVs, electronic warfare, and information confrontation tools, as well as counter-battery operations and long-range fire.

According to the Ministry of Defence, units have begun executing tasks taking into account the experience of modern conflicts, including engineering of positions, emplacement of obstacles, organisation of communications and command, countering UAVs and sabotage-reconnaissance groups, as well as air defence and engagement of aerial targets. Particular attention is given to camouflage, protection of equipment, operations under electronic warfare conditions, and medical support.

On 18 March, the state outlet SB. Belarus Segodnya published an interview with Commander of the Internal Troops Mikalai Karpiankou. According to him, 20% of Internal Troops personnel are officers, 60% are warrant officers and contract servicemen, and another 20% are conscripts. He also stated that the Internal Troops have begun assembling and producing drones domestically, including models that have “performed well in the war in Ukraine.” UAV operators have repeatedly travelled to Russia for training and internships, where they “performed very well.”

On 18 March, it was reported that military logistics command bodies were conducting a joint staff training exercise under the supervision of the Deputy Minister of Defence for logistics. The training is taking place at permanent deployment locations using fixed command posts. Its main objectives are to improve the coordination of logistical command and to rehearse the actions of officials in preparing plans for rear support of troops. The exercise is described as routine and aimed at preparing command bodies, units, and organisations for their assigned tasks.

Battalion-level tactical exercises were conducted in the 19th Mechanized Brigade, as reported by the Ministry of Defence on 18 March. Tank and mechanised infantry units practised defensive and counter-offensive operations. Particular attention was paid to fire adjustment from T-72B tank guns and small arms using UAVs. Under the cover of infantry fighting vehicles and smoke screens, personnel also rehearsed first aid and evacuation of wounded from the battlefield.

On 20 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that the results of the combat readiness inspection (conducted from 16 January to 13 March) showed that the AF RB had demonstrated an overall sufficient level of combat readiness, although shortcomings were identified and are to be addressed. According to the BelTA news agency, he noted that he had effectively “mobilised the entire army” and that such a large-scale inspection was being conducted for the first time on his orders. He emphasised that the exercise was conducted for internal purposes, to assess the actual condition of the armed forces. He added that a separate event would be held to summarise the results: “There are shortcomings, but overall the army is combat-ready. The details will be addressed later.”

Flight-tactical exercises are being conducted with UAV units of the 38th Air Assault Brigade, as reported on 20 March by the brigade’s Telegram channel. Servicemen are practising covert UAV control, reconnaissance, and strike operations. The exercise also includes modern tactics for UAV employment based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, including deception measures and improving operator survivability.

On 19–20 March, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, during a working visit to Brussels, took part in an enlarged summit of the European People’s Party (EPP) ahead of the European Council meeting, where, in a closed format involving EU leaders and heads of European institutions, discussions focused on Ukraine, security, sanctions policy, and the economy. In her remarks, Tsikhanouskaya called for maintaining a firm line toward the Lukashenka regime, avoiding any easing of sanctions without tangible changes, continuing pressure over repression and support for Russia’s aggression, and strengthening support for Ukraine.

In parallel, she held a number of brief meetings with key European figures, including Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and Donald Tusk, emphasising the importance of keeping Belarus on the agenda amid other international crises. As part of the visit, Tsikhanouskaya also addressed an informal briefing for NATO ambassadors, where discussions covered Belarus’s role in regional security, the regime’s involvement in the war against Ukraine, hybrid threats, and the need for continued pressure. She stated that sanctions and international isolation are already producing results, including the release of some political prisoners, and stressed that Belarus’s future is directly linked to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

On 19 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held talks in Minsk with a U.S. delegation led by Special Envoy John Coale, marking the sixth known round of contacts between Minsk and Washington. The discussions covered the restoration of the U.S. embassy’s operations, sanctions, economic cooperation, as well as developments related to Iran, Venezuela, and Ukraine. The issue of political prisoners was also discussed, although Lukashenka continues to deny their existence rhetorically.

Following the talks, the largest group of political prisoners to date — 250 individuals — was released. Of these, 235 remained in Belarus, while 15 were transferred to Lithuania (see the human rights section). According to Coale, if the current dynamics continue, the release of all political prisoners could be achieved by the end of the year, which he presented as a key benchmark for further negotiations.

Coale also stated that sanctions on the potash sector had effectively been lifted and that a process of easing restrictions in the financial sector had begun, including measures affecting the Ministry of Finance, the Development Bank, and Belinvestbank, while subsidiaries of Russian banks in Belarus remain under sanctions. At the time of publication, no corresponding OFAC decision had been officially released. Among economic topics, Lukashenka mentioned the potential partial or full acquisition by U.S. actors of the Nezhinsky potash project. Commenting on the notion of a possible “big deal” between Belarus and the United States, Lukashenka rejected the term while acknowledging that negotiations cover a broad range of bilateral issues, including non-proliferation. Coale also indicated preparations for a possible visit by Lukashenka to the United States and did not rule out direct contact between him and Donald Trump.

Against this backdrop, the crisis on the Belarus–Lithuania border moved beyond a positional stalemate into a phase of limited de-escalation mediated by the United States, although without broader political settlement. Both sides appear to be seeking an exit while preserving face.

A key development was Minsk’s decision to abandon the confiscation of Lithuanian trucks and begin their return. On 20 March, Lukashenka announced the launch of the return process starting 23 March and suggested reducing storage fees to a “symbolic” level. According to the State Customs Committee, more than 1,900 vehicles had been held at special parking sites, and on 23 March Belarusian customs confirmed that the return process had begun.

This was preceded by a tactical shift in Minsk’s position. On 17 March, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its interpretation of meteorological balloons as “ordinary cross-border crime” rather than a hybrid attack, signalling that the crisis should be addressed in a bilateral format alongside broader issues of transit and border functioning.

A significant factor was the activation of the U.S. mediation channel. On 18–19 March, Special Envoy John Coale held talks in Vilnius and Minsk, explicitly stating Washington’s intention to improve relations between Belarus and Lithuania.

At the same time, Lithuania’s rhetoric remained unchanged. On the one hand, Lithuania returned previously detained fire engines intended for Zimbabwe, which may be viewed as a limited reciprocal step. On the other hand, on 20 March, President Gitanas Nausėda stressed that one should not “equate European and U.S. policies,” warned of the risk of a “vicious mechanism” of concessions to Minsk, and reaffirmed the lack of political will to revise the sanctions regime.

Incidents involving meteorological balloons and migration continued, including the temporary closure of Vilnius airspace on 22 March and the detention of 11 migrants on 23 March.

Overall, this creates conditions for the continuation of the crisis at a new stage: some of the most acute issues have begun to ease, but the political incompatibility of the parties’ positions remains.

On the Poland–Belarus border, a limited increase in migration pressure was observed. According to the Polish Border Guard, around 30 attempts per day were recorded on 18 March and 20–22 March, while on other days the figure remained at 0–3 attempts. In the same period in 2025, seasonal increases were also observed, but at significantly higher levels of 80–190 attempts per day.

Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank expect an improvement in Belarus’s GDP dynamics, supported by sustained consumer demand and a potential recovery in the construction sector. According to Belstat, GDP declined by 1.2% year-on-year in January–February, primarily due to a slowdown in industry amid weakening external demand. Additional pressure came from adverse weather conditions, which reduced investment and construction activity (–7.1% y/y). At the same time, growth in agriculture (+2.8% y/y) and retail trade (+1.2% y/y) partially offset the decline. Domestic demand is also slowing down: inflation reached 5.6% in February, while growth in real disposable income fell to 7.5%, compared to more than 13% a year earlier, indicating a gradual weakening of a key growth driver.

In January–February 2026, Belarusian potash exports to China increased significantly, reflecting both higher volumes and rising prices. China’s total potash imports rose by 32.7% to 3.07 million tonnes, while their value increased by 68% to USD 1.11 billion. Supplies from Belarus amounted to USD 277.7 million, doubling compared to the same period of the previous year. Growth was also observed in imports from Russia, Canada, Laos, and Israel. Overall, the value of China’s imports from Belarus rose by 35.7% to USD 411.9 million, indicating an expansion of economic engagement along the Chinese track.

On 17 March, an agreement between Belarus and Oman on the mutual abolition of visas for holders of national passports entered into force. Citizens of both countries may now enter, transit, and stay visa-free for up to 30 days per trip and no more than 90 days per calendar year.

On 19 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka released 250 political prisoners in exchange for further lifting of U.S. economic sanctions. The release of a new large group of prisoners was announced after talks between Lukashenka and U.S. Special Envoy to Belarus John Coale in Minsk. Coale called the release of political prisoners a “significant humanitarian milestone”. 235 people remained in Belarus, the rest were expelled from Belarus to Lithuania. Among those released and deported to Lithuania were well-known human rights defenders, including Vice-President of the International Federation for Human Rights, Deputy Head of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre Valyantsin Stefanovich, coordinator of volunteers programme of “Viasna” Marfa Rabkova and co-founder of Human Constanta human rights NGO Nasta Loika, as well as other well-known figures such as journalist Katsyaryna Andreeva, blogger Eduard Palchys, protests participant Mikita Zalatarou who was arrested in 2021 at the age of 17 and sentenced to five years of imprisonment, and other activists, journalists, and protesters. All those pardoned were on the list of political prisoners maintained by human rights defenders.

Journalist and Polish community activist Andrzej Poczobut was not among those released. Polish Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration Marcin Kierwiński stated he was confident that political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut will be released soon. “The Polish side continues to work in this direction and will eventually achieve what it wants,” he stated.

As John Coale said in an interview with DW Belarus, this round of negotiations was the first time when the issue of new arrests was raised with Lukashenka. “That is, we are releasing ten people, and they’ll arrest 10 more? I hope we managed to convey to him [Lukashenka] that this is unacceptable,” Coale said. He also noted that it was not easy to arrange so that some of the released political prisoners would be allowed to stay in Belarus. “It’s been a pretty intense issue in negotiations in recent months – to make people stay in their home country,” he said. John Coale firmly stated he believes that all political prisoners will be released by the end of the year. He said that in exchange, the United States would lift sanctions from Belarus, but not all of them.

On the day of the mass release of political prisoners, human rights defenders recorded a new detention for political reasons in Minsk. Details and reasons for the detention were not published to ensure the security of the source of the information.

15 released Belarusian political prisoners arrived in Lithuania without documents. “They have no documents, no passports, this is again one of the methods that the regime uses to make life a little more difficult for our heroes,” said Dzyanis Kuchinski, Diplomatic Advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Director of her Office in Lithuania.

The rest of the pardoned political prisoners who were allowed to remain in Belarus. There was no immediate confirmation that all of them were immediately released; this process was apparently taking place over several days. Regarding the information circulating in the media about the restrictions to which those released and staying in Belarus were allegedly subjected, Dissidentby commented that obligatory registration in internal affairs bodies is a standard practice for all former political prisoners in the country. The ban on opening a bank card applies to those on the “terrorist list.” Almost all political prisoners were included in the “list of extremists,” and in some cases, in the “list of terrorists”. Dissidentby underlined that it would be possible to talk about restrictions not envisaged by the law only after a thorough analysis of the real situation. It, however, referred to three facts that can be stated already now. Upon release, people were threatened with imprisonment for “repeated violations”. Some were given only passports at the time of their release, it is still unknown whether a certificate of release will be issued for them later. Some others received certificates. The release certificates stated: “…was released by Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus dated 19.03.2026 ‘On pardoning convicts’, to be released from basic punishment with the opportunity to remain in the Republic of Belarus.”

Speaking to Belarusian journalists on 20 March, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said that of the released political prisoners who were allowed to stay in Belarus, 30-40 people are “dangerous”, and all of them were taken under the control of the special services. “Out of 235 people, well, maybe 30, maybe 40, can, if something happens, pick up the White-Red-White flags (presently used as a sign of protest and a symbol of opposition) again. But we know them. And before releasing them, we took them under control by the special services and the police, so don’t worry that we will release them. Everything is under control here. We won’t allow the 2020 to happen anymore. I don’t want to run around with a gun in the streets,” he said.

The BYSOL Foundation launched an emergency fundraising campaign to help the released political prisoners. The purpose of the fundraising campaign is to provide at least 1,000 Euro to each person within the framework of the support program for political prisoners and those released. This money will help them survive the first weeks after the release: find temporary housing, buy clothes and medicines, and restore their documents. The fundraising will continue until 31 March 2026, after which payments will begin. 15 political prisoners released last week and expelled to Lithuania have received first aid. Everyone was given mobile phones, clothes, food and basic necessities. About half of the group moved in with their families or colleagues. The rest stayed in a shelter, and some chose the co-living format. On 23 March, those released will visit the Lithuanian Migration Department to submit their applications for documents. By agreement with the Lithuanian authorities, they will be allocated a separate window. Valyantsin Stefanovich, Katsyaryna Andreeva and Nasta Loika travelled on from Lithuania to Poland two days later where they will be assisted by Belarusian organisations, including with obtaining personal documents and applying for residence in Poland.

It recently became known that in February, the Homel Regional Court issued another verdict in the Belarusian Hajun case. Anton Kazachenka, a resident of Rechitsa, was convicted of “facilitating extremist activities”. He was sentenced to four years of imprisonment in a high-security colony. After the verdict, on 20 February 2026, he was added to the list of Belarusian citizens, foreign citizens and stateless persons involved in extremist activities.

A new criminal case was initiated against opera singer Marharyta Liauchuk on charges of insulting Aliaksandr Lukashenka. In June 2024, Liauchuk had already been convicted in absentia for “creating or participating in an extremist formation” and “insulting Lukashenka”. It is not known what term of imprisonment she was sentenced to back then. The state-owned BelTA news agency reported that Marharyta Liauchuk, Ilya Salenkau and Uladzislau Navazhylau were sentenced to six to eight years of imprisonment for “participating in the extremist formation “Rudabelskaya Pakazukha” and committing a number of other crimes as part of it.” Liauchuk is a Belarusian singer and blogger, former soloist of the National Opera and Ballet Theatre of Belarus. During the 2020 elections, she supported the protesters, and later had to leave Belarus due to persecution.

Aliaksei Karpeka, a journalist of the Bureau investigative media, was detained in absentia in a criminal case against him. Karpeka wrote about this on his Facebook page, where he showed a fragment of a document which said: “..to inform A. L. Karpeka about his procedural status in the criminal case, in particular that he is accused of committing a crime under Part 3 of Article 361-1 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Belarus and a preventive measure in the form of detention has been applied against him.” Part 3 of Article 361-1 of the Criminal Code provides for responsibility for participation in an extremist formation.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported new detentions of priests and believers. On 16 March, Father Anatol Parakhnevich from Alkavichi was detained. Also in mid-March, two presbyters of evangelical churches were detained, as well as four other people. It is known that two detainees were released after interrogations, while the others remain behind bars. In addition, five Ukrainian refugees who were supported by the churches were detained.

Mikalai Statkevich, former political prisoner, veteran opposition politician and candidate in 2010 presidential elections, is still at home in Minsk without personal and medical documents. According to him, his passport remained in the colony, the administration of which does not respond to requests. Without documents, Statkevich has no opportunity to go abroad for a medical examination, go to a clinic, or restore his pension. Statkevich reported that he was placed in a cell-type room six times in a row for six months each while in prison. After a failed attempt to expel Statkevich from Belarus in September 2025, he was again placed in a colony, but could not any longer receive medical packages with the anti-blood clot drug Xarelto, which he was prescribed after Covid. Statkevich claimed that he was thus deliberately driven to a stroke. At the same time, he noted that prison doctors had done everything to minimise the consequences of the stroke.

On 17 March, Maryna Adamovich, Mikalai Statkevich’s wife, was detained for several hours. Officers who were detaining her, said they wanted to receive explanations from her about her receiving the Homo Homini Award on behalf of Mikalai in Prague on 11 March. She was released after being held in a police station for several hours. She is currently at home.

On 18 March, by decision of the KGB, three new “extremist formations” were included in the relevant list:  the Northern Lights Film Festival, an annual festival of feature and documentary films from the Baltic States and Northern Europe, the human rights organisation Human Constanta, which advocates for the rights of foreigners and stateless persons and promotes anti-discrimination laws, and the non-governmental organisation Spadcyna Belarusi, a project founded in Wroclaw, Poland, which organises cultural and educational events, supports children and women from Belarus who have found themselves in exile, as well as the LGBTQ community.

A large chat of relatives of prisoners of the Kalyadzichi SIZO No. 1 has been recognised as “extremist materials”. The decision was made by the Central District court of Minsk on 19 March. There are almost 1,800 participants in the chat.

On 19 March, a verdict was passed in Minsk in the high-profile case of “yard chats”. Iryna Yakauleva, Angela Agarak and Viktoryia Hrynko were sentenced for “conspiracy or other actions committed with the aim of seizing state power”. Yakauleva and Agarak were sentenced to eight and a half years of imprisonment each, while Hrynko was sentenced to nine years of imprisonment. They were also fined 1,000 basic units (45,000 rubles, or approximately 12,820 Euro) each.

The book publishers and book distributors arrested in February were transferred to the KGB pre-trial detention centre. In early March, a coalition of three publishing houses was recognised as an “extremist group” by the KGB. Dzmitri Kolas, Vatslau Bahdanovich and Aliaksandr Yaudakha were mentioned in connection with the formation. They were transferred to the KGB detention centre. Viktoryia Bahdanovich, daughter of Vatslau Bahdanovich, is also in custody.

On 19 March, PEN Belarus issued a statement on the systemic persecution in the book sector and the designation of literary organisations as “extremist formations”. Along with the human rights and cultural community, it strongly condemned the current large-scale repression targeting independent publishers, book distributors, and cultural organisations in Belarus. “In February–March 2026, a new wave of persecution occurred. Over twenty cases of detention or pressure affected those in the book sector, including literary organisations and publishing houses. Simultaneously, the state weaponised anti-extremism legislation and pursued transnational repression to stifle Belarusian culture and literature, targeting all dissent. These actions clearly aim to dismantle the Belarusian publishing infrastructure and criminalise legitimate cultural activities,” the statement claimed. According to PEN Belarus, “The relentless persecution of publishing houses and cultural organisations imperils not only individuals and initiatives, but the very fabric of society’s access to books, knowledge, language, cultural memory, and open intellectual exchange. These alarming acts breed fear, compel self-censorship, shatter vital professional networks, and rapidly erode independent culture. These alarming acts breed fear, compel self-censorship, shatter vital professional networks, and rapidly erode independent culture. These actions are transnational repression. They aim to intimidate and limit the work of cultural figures and organisations forced to continue their work abroad. Labelling peaceful cultural and human rights work as “extremist” does not serve public security. This practice arbitrarily criminalises lawful activity and misuses anti-extremism laws to suppress freedom of expression, association, and cultural participation.” PEN Belarus declared full solidarity with all book industry figures facing arrest or persecution and demanded that the authorities of Belarus immediately cease the systematic persecution of the book sector, cultural initiatives, and cultural figures; immediately release all those unlawfully detained; end the practice of fabricating grounds for persecution of professional cultural activity; and revoke unlawful decisions designating publishers, book distributors, and PEN Belarus as “extremist formations”. It also appealed to the international community, human rights and cultural institutions, governments, the UN Special Rapporteur in the field of cultural rights, the UN Special Rapporteur on Belarus, and UNESCO to support these demands and to publicly condemn these violations of cultural rights.

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