Belarus Review by iSANS — June 1, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, 16 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarusian airspace between 25 and 31 May. During the week, Belarusian Air Force aircraft assigned to air-policing duties were also scrambled to intercept drones. No reports were received regarding the destruction or crash of any UAVs.

On 26 May, State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich stated that Belarusian air-defence systems detect Ukrainian combat drones crossing the Belarus–Ukraine border and falling on Belarusian territory on a daily basis. According to him, some incidents were not accidental incursions but attempts to strike elements of Belarusian border infrastructure while disguising them as unintended events. He claimed that 116 such cases had been recorded during the previous week alone and that air-policing aircraft had been scrambled 59 times in response. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service described the allegations as “absurd”.

Myanmar Defence Minister General Tun Aung paid an official visit to Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced the visit on 25 May. During the visit, the Myanmar delegation toured the Military Academy, where it was briefed on Belarus’ military education system and discussed prospects for cooperation in military training. The delegation also visited the central command post of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces.

On 26 May, Belarusian Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin held talks with Tun Aung. According to Khrenin, Myanmar is engaged in a constructive dialogue with representatives of the State Authority for Military Industry of Belarus. He highlighted growing cooperation in military education and combat training, stressed the need to strengthen interaction between ideological work structures, and welcomed exchanges of experience in the field of air defence.

The head of Myanmar’s military establishment, for his part, emphasised interest in exchanging experience in air defence, communications and the defence industry. He also expressed interest in sending military specialists to Belarus to explore cooperation in personnel training.

From 26 to 28 May, a command-and-staff exercise involving military command bodies, units and logistical support organisations of the Belarusian Armed Forces was held under the leadership of the Deputy Defence Minister for Logistics. The Ministry of Defence reported that the exercise focused on “management of logistical support for troops (forces) during a crisis-response operation by the Armed Forces”. It was noted that all practical activities would, for the first time, be conducted at logistical facilities. Reservists were called up to participate.

During the exercise, troops practised fuel dispersal and distribution, protection of facilities against sabotage and reconnaissance groups using FPV drones, troop deployment in the field, transportation of supplies, biological reconnaissance, disinfection and deratisation. Personnel also rehearsed the reception, triage and treatment of casualties in cooperation with civilian hospitals. Separate training covered restoring movement across an obstacle line, including reconstruction of a damaged crossing using a standard military bridge and its protection against drone attacks.

On 27 May, a new border outpost complex, “Kamaryn”, was officially opened in the area of responsibility of the Homiel Border Group. According to the State Border Committee, it became the third newly commissioned outpost in the Brahin District in recent years.

On 28 May, the training centre of the Military Academy hosted a joint exercise involving the Investigative Committee, the Belarusian Armed Forces and the State Forensic Examination Committee. The Ministry of Defence reported that the exercise was conducted for the sixth time and focused on joint operations in conditions of armed conflict.

The scenario simulated the armed seizure of a populated area and its subsequent liberation. Participants practised establishing checkpoints, organising investigative teams, integrating military personnel into those teams for security and protection tasks, conducting photo and video documentation at incident scenes, and providing first aid to casualties. Representatives of the Investigative Committee of Russia also took part in the exercise.

On 29 May, the 619th Base for Storage, Repair, Modernisation and Disposal of Communications Equipment transferred new and modernised communications systems to the armed forces. According to the Ministry of Defence, around 15 vehicles and more than 50 mobile communications kits were delivered. The equipment included modernised BMP‑1KSh command-and-staff vehicles. Transfers of new and upgraded communications equipment to the Belarusian Armed Forces traditionally take place twice a year, with the main emphasis placed on deep modernisation of Soviet-era systems.

A flight-tactical exercise of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces was completed, the Ministry of Defence announced on 29 May. According to Air Force Chief Aliaksandr Bialiaeu, the exercise included a number of non-standard tasks, including the redeployment of aircraft to operational airfields and flights involving more than 30 aircraft simultaneously in the air, including at night. Each sortie included duel-type scenarios: air-defence missile units were tasked with destroying aircraft, while aviation units were tasked with bypassing engagement zones. Live-fire training was also conducted at aviation ranges. Forward air controllers were employed to provide real-time targeting and aircraft control through secure communications channels.

25–28 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya paid a working visit to Ukraine. During the trip, she held talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and representatives of Ukrainian state bodies and took part in the opening of the International Summit of Cities and Regions in Kyiv. The key event of the visit was Tsikhanouskaya’s meeting with Zelenskyy on 26 May. The parties discussed the military-political situation in the region, security issues along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, preventing Belarus’ further involvement in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, support for Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine and political prisoners in Belarus, and maintaining sanctions pressure on the Lukashenka regime. Tsikhanouskaya also urged Ukraine to maintain a firm position against any easing of sanctions on Belarus, including restrictions on the export and transit of potash fertilisers.  Separate talks were held with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. Following the meeting, the sides agreed to develop cooperation between the Ukrainian authorities and the Belarusian democratic forces. Ukraine appointed Yaroslav Chornohor as Ambassador-at-Large for cooperation with the Belarusian democratic forces. In addition, an agreement was reached to establish a coordination group on issues affecting Belarusians in Ukraine, focusing on legalisation, migration status and documentation.

During the visit, representatives of the democratic forces submitted proposals to the Ukrainian side on expanding sanctions against companies and individuals linked to the Lukashenka regime, as well as proposals to hold the regime accountable for international crimes, including complicity in the aggression against Ukraine. It was also announced that the Belarusian democratic forces would join the international coalition for the return of Ukrainian children taken by Russia from the occupied territories.

On 31 May, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine hosted a working meeting between the parliamentary association “For a Democratic Belarus”, representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces and Ukrainian officials. Participants discussed the problems faced by Belarusians in Ukraine, support for Belarusian volunteers and mechanisms for further institutionalisation of cooperation. Among the initiatives considered was the creation of a permanent cross-sector contact group on Belarus involving parliamentarians, Ukraine’s executive authorities and representatives of the Belarusian democratic community.

On 27 May, the Mission of Democratic Belarus in Ukraine was officially opened in Kyiv. The ceremony was attended by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, representatives of the United Transitional Cabinet, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Coordination Council, and Ukrainian Foreign Ministry officials. The Mission will be headed by Sviatlana Shatilina and is intended to serve as a permanent platform for cooperation with Ukrainian institutions, support for Belarusians in Ukraine and Belarusian volunteers, and the development of Belarusian–Ukrainian dialogue.

Commenting on the development of relations between Kyiv and Belarusian democratic structures, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of Zelenskyy’s Office, stressed that Kyiv would be able to establish a “third centre of the Belarusian opposition”, referring to Vilnius and Warsaw as the first two centres.
On 28 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the new Dutch Prime Minister, Rob Jetten, in The Hague. The parties discussed support for Ukraine and Belarus, assistance to independent media and civil society, possible Dutch participation in the International Humanitarian Fund for Belarusian political prisoners, and the need to maintain a consistent EU policy on Belarus.
On 29 May, Lukashenka commented on Ukrainian statements about 500 potential targets on Belarusian territory, describing them as “idle talk”. He stated that Belarusian soldiers “have not been and will not be” in Ukraine and claimed that Ukrainian military personnel “do not want any war with Belarus” because they understand the risk of opening an additional 1,500 km front. Lukashenka also linked Kyiv’s tough rhetoric to the influence of Ukraine’s European partners and separately referred to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s visit to Kyiv, calling representatives of the democratic forces “bandits”. According to him, they allegedly intend to prepare groups of Belarusians, Ukrainians, Poles and Lithuanians to attack Belarus and seize a district centre. “God forbid a military attack is launched against Belarus from any territory — the war in Ukraine will take on an entirely different character,” Lukashenka said. He also stated that Belarus has “one very serious target with precise coordinates located not far from Belarus”.

A telephone conversation between Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Emmanuel Macron took place on 24 May. The discussion explored the risks of Belarus becoming involved in the war, nuclear rhetoric, Ukraine, regional security and parameters for restoring contacts between Minsk and Europe. Lukashenka later presented the conversation as the beginning of a broader discussion on normalisation, stating that the potash issue and European sanctions had also been discussed. On 25 May, Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Ihar Sakreta stated that the contact was continuing at the diplomatic level. According to him, the conversation between the two leaders provided “a signal and impetus for the foreign ministries and diplomats” to work more intensively on subsequent issues.

On 1 June 2026, Lukashenka told Primorsky Krai Governor Oleg Kozhemyako that he had discussed with Vladimir Putin the introduction in Russia of a shipment confirmation system for goods. According to him, the new mechanism “may complicate” Belarusian trade with Russia but “will not stop it”. Lukashenka stressed that Minsk and Moscow had agreed to prevent queues, delays and excessive bureaucracy at the border. In February 2026, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk announced that Russia would begin applying the SPOT system to imports from EAEU countries, citing the need to ensure traceability of goods, combat grey schemes and monitor indirect tax payments. SPOT requires advance notification of Russian authorities about shipments, including details of the recipient, supplier and carrier, after which the carrier receives a QR code to present at the border. Formally, the mechanism is aimed at import control and combating grey schemes. More broadly, however, it reflects Russia’s effort to strengthen regulation of trade flows across the EAEU. This reduces the automatic nature of access to the Russian market and allows Moscow to filter not only Belarusian supplies but also transit chains, including flows of Chinese goods through Belarus and Poland. In a wider context, SPOT reflects Russia’s attempt to restructure Eurasian logistics under its own control.

On 29 May, a DPRK government economic delegation led by Minister of External Economic Relations Yun Jong Ho departed Pyongyang. According to KCNA, the delegation travelled to Belarus and Russia to participate in the Belagro-2026 exhibition in Minsk on 2–6 June and the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on 3–6 June. The delegation was seen off at the airport by Deputy Minister of External Economic Relations Ryu Un Hae and Russian Chargé d’Affaires in the DPRK Vladimir Topekha.

On 29 May, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that he did not rule out a visit to Brest on 22 June for events marking the 85th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s attack on the Soviet Union. The statement was made in the context of his remarks on Slovak foreign policy. Fico also referred to a planned trip to Normandy on 6 June, a possible visit to the United States for celebrations marking the 250th anniversary of independence, and a visit to Poland on 1 September, the anniversary of the outbreak of the Second World War. He stated thatб despite criticism, he continued dialogue with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.

The situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian track continues to develop under the influence of US interest in Belarusian potash transit and tensions along the EU border.

On 26 May, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys confirmed that Vilnius was holding discussions with the United States regarding the transit of Belarusian potash. However, he stressed that EU sanctions would not be reviewed before the end of February 2027. According to him, the restrictions apply to all fertilisers produced in Belarus, including those that might transit through EU territory.

The sociological backdrop to this debate is also changing. According to an LRT poll, Lithuanian society is effectively split down the middle on sanctions against Belarus. Some 47% support maintaining or tightening the current policy, while 46% favour easing some sanctions, dialogue or complete removal of sanctions. Similar findings emerge from iSANS surveys on Belarusians. More than half of Belarusians (52%) believe Minsk should take steps to normalise relations with the European Union and secure the lifting of sanctions. Around 70% of Belarusians believe the European Union should ease sanctions.

The issue of Lithuanian trucks detained in Belarus is moving into a residual phase. According to the Lithuanian National Road Carriers’ Association “Linava”, up to 200 vehicles remain in Belarus. Some are unlikely to be returned because storage fees exceed their value.

Against this backdrop, Lithuanian law enforcement agencies continue intensified efforts against smuggling networks. Belarusian citizens, local participants in smuggling schemes and a serving border guard have been detained in connection with the transportation of cigarettes bearing Belarusian excise stamps. Dozens of individuals, including police and border service officers, had previously been detained in similar cases.

At the same time, Lithuania continues to expand its restrictive anti-Belarusian agenda, including discussions on banning Belarusian citizens from participating in scientific and sporting events.

Migration pressure remains highly asymmetrical. Between 1 and 28 May, 48 attempted illegal border crossings were recorded on the Polish section of the border (based on data from Straż Graniczna). During the same period, 2,252 attempts were recorded on the Latvian border (based on data from Valsts robežsardze).

Belarus will establish an Interagency Council for Technological Sovereignty. This is provided for by Council of Ministers Resolution No. 256 of 23 May. Technological sovereignty is defined as the country’s ability to possess critical technologies and goods necessary for national security and economic competitiveness. State bodies will be required to include relevant projects in state programmes, while the State Committee on Science and Technology will compile a list of critical technologies and goods. Selection criteria include import-substitution potential, significance for socio-economic development, and technical and economic feasibility in the short term. The document effectively formalises technological import substitution as a separate area of budget financing.

In the first quarter, Belarus’ foreign trade deficit in goods and services nearly tripled downward to USD 224 million, 66% lower than a year earlier. According to the National Bank, exports increased by 14.6% to USD 13.18 billion, while imports rose by 10.2% to USD 13.4 billion. The goods trade deficit remained at USD 1.4 billion: goods exports grew by 10.9% and imports by 9.4%. The improvement in the overall balance was driven by services, whose exports increased by 28.2%, while the surplus reached USD 1.18 billion.

International Children’s Day is celebrated on 1 June. However, as “Viasna” Human Rights Centre noted, in Belarus minors have been the targets of political persecution for several years. According to the Supreme Court, 40 teenagers were convicted in politically motivated criminal cases last year alone. At least 16 teenagers were convicted under the charge of gross violation of public order, six under the charge of facilitating “extremist activities”, and five under the charge of incitement to hostility. Minors were also tried under charges of abuse of state symbols, insulting Lukashenka, and acts of terrorism. Four teenagers are still in custody. Human rights defenders stress that the real figures may be higher, as not all cases of harassment are known to them. The political persecution of children in Belarus, thus, has become one of the signs of the repressive system of recent years.

On 28 May, human rights defenders recognised 16 people who were held criminally responsible for interacting with “extremist formations” and exercising freedom of expression as political prisoners. Today, according to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, 854 people have the status of political prisoners in Belarus.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs added 19 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among them was musician and radio host Aleh Khamenka. Khamenka was detained in Minsk on 17 June 2025 after a search of his apartment. Initially, he was placed in a temporary detention facility in Akrestsina detention centre on administrative charges. In early July, it became known that a criminal case had been initiated against him and he was transferred to the pre-trial detention centre No. 1 in Kalyadzichi. On 4 March 2026, the Minsk City Court sentenced Khamenka to three years of imprisonment and a fine of 20,000 rubles (approximately 6,300 Euro) on charges of facilitating “extremist activities”. According to the case file, the accusation was based on his constant cooperation with the editorial board of Belaruskae Radyjo Racia. There are now 6,650 names on the “extremist list”.

The Ministry of Information updated its list of “extremist materials”. Among other materials, the website “Human Rights Defenders against Torture” (protivpytok.org) was added to it by the decision of the Leninski district court of Brest.

Political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets was sentenced in absentia to 12 years of imprisonment. The verdict was handed down by the Minsk City Court on 25 May. Balkunets was found guilty under eleven articles of the Criminal Code. In addition to 12 years of imprisonment in a high-security regime, he was fined 5,000 basic units (225,000 rubles or approximately 70,800 Euro). The indictment said that Balkunets “among other things, in 2020-2024 created and posted at least 28 informational publications of an incentive nature, including on the ‘Dmitry Bolkunets’ YouTube channel.” In the texts, he allegedly called for the seizure of state power and violent change of the constitutional order, harming the national security of Belarus, and the use of sanctions against Belarus, its individuals and legal entities.

A new criminal case against ex-political prisoner Paval Sieviarynets was initiated in absentia. “A criminal case was opened because of the Freedom Day, and a search was conducted in Vitsebsk,” he wrote on his Facebook page. Sieviarynets headed the organising committee of the Freedom Day celebrations this year. Last week, it became known that security forces in Belarus conducted a series of searches in the apartments of those who left the country for political reasons. All these actions were connected with the celebration of the Freedom Day outside of Belarus.

On 26 May, the Ministry of Information updated the list of banned publications. 17 more books were added to it. “The decision to ban their distribution on the territory of our country was made by the Republican Commission for the Evaluation of Symbols, Attributes, and Information products. All these publications are capable of harming the national interests of our country,” the Ministry said. Interestingly, officials called the updated file on the website a “list of malicious books”. Now it has 258 positions.

On 26 May, a court in Mahileu sentenced political prisoner Siarhei Strybulski. He was tried under the charge of “facilitating extremist activities”. In addition to three and a half years of imprisonment, he was fined 550 basic units (24,750 rubles or approximately 7,800 Euro). Strybulski was detained on 14 November 2025. First, he served two administrative arrests, and then a criminal case was opened against him. Prior to the trial, he was held in Mahileu prison No. 4. Earlier, Strybulski was detained in the fall of 2021, when protest symbols were confiscated from him. In 2017, Strybulski was involved in the scandalous “White Legion” case when dozens of people were accused of preparing mass riots.

Political prisoner journalist Kiryll Paznyak was transferred from the intensive care unit of the emergency hospital to the medical unit of the Minsk SIZO No. 1, where he continued treatment for his lung condition. Earlier, Paznyak felt sick on the way to court. He was hospitalised. Eight months ago, Paznyak suffered from pneumonia and COVID. According to his ex-wife, he has lost consciousness several times recently.

A criminal case was initiated in absentia against Illya Mironau, a former political prisoner and activist from Homel, under the charge of the legalisation of criminally obtained funds. “The logic of the punitive authorities is simple: if I helped people, it means I was laundering money. But the truth is that all my ‘criminal activities’ after my release from the detention centre were simply acts of civic solidarity,” Mironau wrote on Facebook. He believed that a new criminal case was opened to discredit the idea of civic assistance and restrict his activities abroad.

The Investigative Committee launched special proceedings against Mikalai Boyka, Yury Makitau, Natallia Nikitsiana, Krystina Stankevich and Mikhail Chuprynski. Among the charges brought against them are conspiracy to seize power, participation in a terrorist organisation, creation of an extremist formation or participation in it, and facilitation of “extremist activities.”

Comprehensive command and staff exercises were held in Mahileu to check the readiness of units of the internal affairs bodies and internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for “effective actions in special conditions,” including during “mass riots”. During the exercises, Interior Ministry officers simulated detentions in courtyards, stopping a bus “with extremist citizens”, unblocking the road and freeing hostages. “As the president said, there will be no repeat of the events of 2020 in the country. And we are aiming at this direction, that is why we conduct such exercises and check the readiness of equipment and personnel to act in special conditions. If someone tries to injure citizens of the republic, police officers, and anyone involved in suppressing mass riots, all means must be used, including firearms. We must be ready for this,” said Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Kubrakou.

Political prisoner Kiryl Ashurak suffered a micro-stroke in a penal colony, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. Ashurak is 26 years old. In 2022, he was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment in the “case of the Civil Self-Defense Units of Belarus”. According to human rights defenders, Ashurak is under pressure in the colony. He was periodically placed in a punishment cell, and then transferred to a cell-type room. Ashurak has not seen his family for three years. He was also sentenced to another year of imprisonment on charges of malicious disobedience to the colony administration while serving his sentence. He will serve his term in high-security penal colony No. 9 in Horki. According to human rights defenders, Ashurak has serious illnesses. At the end of 2025, he also suffered a micro-stroke.

Valiantsina Naumava, an activist from Hrodna, was charged under ten articles of the Criminal Code. She was charged with aiding and abetting a crime; inciting social hostility; slander; violating the secrecy of correspondence and telephone conversations; facilitating extremist activities, including committed repeatedly; slander against Lukashenka; insulting a representative of the authorities; insulting state symbols; insulting a judge. She was detained in September 2025. Naumava has long been a member of the leftist Spravedliwy Mir party. In 2017, she was tried in an administrative case for participating in protest action.

Archpriest Georgy Roy, performing his service in the Belarusian Orthodox parish in Vilnius, said that he saw his name on the police wanted lists. He is accused of “facilitating extremist activities”. Georgy Roy was forced to flee persecution to Lithuania in 2023.

After the European Humanities University was declared an “extremist organisation”, about a hundred students left it. EHU Rector Vilius Šadauskas noted that the Belarusian law enforcement agencies were interested in EHU students even before EHU received its “extremist” status. “During the Christmas or summer holidays, ‘meetings’ and ‘conversations’ were held with specific students. We had a hypothesis that some of them were interviewed not because they were EHU students, but because they were involved in some kind of protest activity, non-governmental organisations, and something else. There have always been such ‘meetings’ and ‘conversations’. And now there are more of them, we know about them. There were about ten cases in total so far. This mainly concerns students who study by correspondence,” he noted. Šadauskas added that part-time students made up about 30% of the total number of students at EHU, and about 10% of them were living in Belarus. Some of them gave up studying. Among part-time students living in Lithuania, ten people gave up studying.

KGB officers increasingly often contact Belarusians in exile by phone and ask questions about donations to the Kalinouski Regiment, their desire to join it, and those people who already serve there. They ask if an individual wants to return to Belarus and promise to help them with this in exchange for information. If exiles ignore calls from unknown numbers, KGB officers have recently started calling from the phone numbers of their friends, who have been summoned to the traffic police, the tax inspectorate, or the passport office, where they are met by KGB officers. Previously, KGB officers tried to recruit Belarusian exiles through their parents. Now they are using friends. The toolkit of transnational repression implemented by the Lukashenka regime is constantly expanding.

Reporters Without Borders expressed concern about the condition of Belarusian political prisoner Kiryll Paznyak. “Reporters Without Borders is deeply concerned about the state of health of journalist Kiryll Paznyak, who was hospitalised in serious condition after more than eight months of imprisonment. The authorities must immediately provide him with access to appropriate medical care and stop the repression against journalists,” Reporters Without Borders said in a statement.

On 27 May, former political prisoner and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski met in Vatican with Pope Leo XIV. During the meeting, Bialiatski told the pontiff about the human rights situation in Belarus. He asked Pope Leo XIV for prayer and attention to the “humanitarian catastrophe” that, according to him, has been developing in the country. Bialiatski handed over to the Pope a written appeal describing the situation with political repression in Belarus. He recalled that about a thousand political prisoners remain in the country, including women, the elderly, people with disabilities and parents with many children. He touched upon the issue of pressure on religious communities and clergy of different faiths — Catholics, Orthodox and Protestants. He thanked the Holy See for facilitating the release of priests Henryk Akalatowicz and Andrzej Yukhniewicz in November 2025, but noted that pressure on believers and clergy continues – priests cannot return to their parishes, and their property was confiscated.

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Best regards, iSANS team