Belarus Review by iSANS — June 09, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 2 and 8 June, no Russian “Shahed”-type drones were recorded in the Belarusian airspace. According to updated information, on 1 June, one of the drones may have crashed in the Pietrykau district of the Homiel region. It should be recalled that on that day, at least 22 drones were recorded in Belarus.

On 1 June, in a comment to the Russian news agency TASS, analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Ihar Karol stated that work on launching the construction of a Belarusian-Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) production plant was already underway. “As far as I am informed, work on designing such an enterprise and initiating its construction is already in progress,” he said. On 3 June, Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry Dzmitry Pantus held negotiations with the Minister of Industry and Trade of Tatarstan, Oleg Korobchenko. The parties discussed cooperation in the field of unmanned aerial systems, in particular the production of drones and their components. It should be recalled that in early March, it was reported that Russia had proposed building a UAV production plant in Belarus. The facility’s output capacity may reach up to 100,000 units per year. The construction of the plant was also mentioned by the Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of April.

On 2 June, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported about the ceremonial presentation of the Battle Flag to the 62^nd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96871) of the Western Operational Command. The formation of the unit had been previously reported in September 2024. The regiment is stationed in Hrodna and is equipped with “Osa-AKM” anti-aircraft missile systems.

Between 2 and 4 June, command and staff exercises were conducted within the framework of territorial troops training assemblies in the Brest district. The stated objectives of the exercises were to enhance the leadership skills of officers in commanding subordinate territorial defence forces and to train personnel in coordinated actions during the execution of territorial defence tasks. Particular attention was paid to the use of territorial troops’ units in cooperation with the Armed Forces of Belarus in the defence of populated areas.

Between 3 and 5 June, the second staff talks on the preparation of the CSTO joint exercises, scheduled for September 2025, took place in Belarus. The discussions focused on the “Interaction-2025” exercise with the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces, the “Search-2025” exercise involving intelligence assets, and the “Echelon-2025” exercise involving logistics units, all conducted within the framework of the joint operational-strategic exercise “Combat Brotherhood-2025”. The parties agreed on the concepts of the exercises, aligning them with the objectives of the joint Belarusian-Russian strategic exercise “Zapad-2025”. They also coordinated the composition of the participating units, the sequence of practical actions, command and control procedures, and logistical arrangements. Reconnaissance of the “Losvida” and “Liepelski” training grounds, where the main activities will take place, was conducted.

On 3 June, it became known that the Minister of Defence Viktar Khrenin embarked on the first official visit to Pakistan in the history of Belarusian-Pakistani relations. Judging by published photographs, the Belarusian delegation included high-ranking military officials, including the Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich and the Head of the Communications Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus Vadzim Ramaniu. During the visit, a series of meetings and negotiations were held with representatives of the military and political leadership of Pakistan. In particular, a meeting between Viktar Khrenin and the Minister of Defence of Pakistan took place. The discussions focused on military relations, their current state, and prospects for development. Cooperation between Belarusian automotive industry enterprises and Pakistani economic sectors was also addressed. In addition, the sides discussed matters of personnel training and education. It was also reported that Andrei Lukyanovich, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces of Belarus, held a meeting with the leadership of the Pakistan Air Force. The Pakistani side confirmed its readiness to provide comprehensive support in the training of Belarusian pilots and technical personnel. Mutual agreement was reached on expanding cooperation between the air forces of Belarus and Pakistan in several areas, including the launch of high-level exchange programmes aimed at the professional development of personnel in both countries.

On 4 June, the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania hosted an expanded meeting of the parliamentary group “For Democratic Belarus”, attended by the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, representatives of the United Transitional Cabinet, the Coordination Council, Belarusian political parties, civic initiatives, and think tanks. On the Lithuanian side, participants included the group’s chair Juozas Olekas, deputy chair Zygimantas Pavilionis, chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs Remigijus Motuzas, and MPs Emanuelis Zingeris, Ruslanas Baranovas, Tomas Tomilinas, among others. Representing the Belarusian side, alongside Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, were members of the democratic forces and civil initiatives such as “Razam”, the Lutskevich Museum, a network of parents raising Belarusian-speaking children, and political parties including the UCP, BSDP “Hramada”, “Our Party”, SDM, BCD, “Narodnaya Hramada”, as well as members of the expert community. During the meeting, Tsikhanouskaya thanked Lithuania for its targeted exemptions for Belarusians, its support for political prisoners and Belarusian-language media, as well as for easing legalisation procedures. She also expressed gratitude for Lithuania’s principled stance in not equating Belarusians with Russian citizens. Participants discussed two key documents — a draft memorandum on partnership between the Lithuanian Seimas and the democratic forces of Belarus, and a joint declaration on respect for historical heritage and national identity. Proposals regarding these documents will continue to be developed in a working group format. The legal status of Belarusian volunteers defending Ukraine was also raised. Volunteer representative Ales Klachko emphasised the need for an individualised approach and support for these individuals. The meeting also touched upon the issues of Belarusian-language education and diaspora engagement.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya praised Poland’s recent presidential election, calling it “a transparent political process where every voice mattered.” She highlighted the open media coverage, honest competition, and high voter turnout — over 70% — as key features of a democratic system Belarus should strive for. “Poland has shown how an electoral system should really function,” she said, emphasising the importance of diverse candidates, inclusive representation, and credible vote counting. Tsikhanouskaya congratulated Karol Nawrocki on his victory and expressed confidence in building “strong and fruitful relations” with the newly elected Polish president. She added that in Belarus’s future democratic elections, turnout could be even higher.

On 5 June, a friendly football match in support of imprisoned Belarusian journalists took place between representatives of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office and the Lithuanian Seimas. Playing for Tsikhanouskaya’s side were Franak Viacorka, Anatol Liabedzka, and Dzianis Kuchynski, along with civil society activists. Prior to the match, a solidarity action was held in support of Belarusian journalists who remain imprisoned for doing their job and telling the truth. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated: “Nearly 40 media professionals are behind bars. The regime fears the truth, which is why it persecutes those who speak it. But freedom of speech and access to information are the foundations of any society. The release of all political prisoners is our top priority. And even seemingly simple acts, like a football match, are not just about sport — they’re about solidarity, unity, and standing together.”

In an interview with the Polish outlet Rzeczpospolita, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that the Belarusian democratic forces are open to constructive contacts with representatives of the Lukashenka regime, including behind closed doors. “We are always open to meeting representatives of the regime in various institutions, such as the UN or the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,” she said. According to Tsikhanouskaya, while some respond and others do not, dialogue has already taken place in settings like the Vatican, where discussions “will remain within the walls of the Holy See.” She emphasised: “We are open to dialogue with the Lukashenka regime. There are many issues to discuss.” She also noted that Lukashenka himself does not necessarily have to attend such negotiations and could delegate the task to members of his government. Tsikhanouskaya emphasised that the Belarusian democratic forces frequently refer to Poland’s Round Table experience as a positive model for dialogue. “We often refer to the [experience of the] Polish Round Table because it is a good example for us,” she said. However, she noted that the regime is not interested in such an approach. “They want our capitulation — for us to kneel and voluntarily go to prison.”

Chair of the Lithuanian Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence, Gedrimas Jeglinskas, has dismissed concerns over a potential Russian or Belarusian attack on NATO member states next year. His remarks followed a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for NATO leaders to consult intelligence services about Belarus’s intentions during the upcoming military drills. “Our intelligence has a clear picture of what is happening in Belarus. NATO countries’ intelligence services also monitor the situation closely, and there are currently no indications that Russia — let alone Belarus — could or would be capable of launching a conventional attack against NATO member states,” Jeglinskas said. On 2 June, at the summit in Vilnius, President Zelenskyy addressed the leaders of the Bucharest Nine and the Nordic countries. He urged them to request intelligence assessments regarding Belarus’s plans during the upcoming “Zapad” military exercises, scheduled for this autumn.

In 2023, Belarusian private businesses in Poland continued to grow, but at a slower pace — total revenue among the top 100 companies rose by 10%, down from a 30% increase in 2022. The decline was largely due to a dramatic fall in earnings at E100 International Trade, which dropped from first to ninth place after exiting markets in Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Sanctions also hit firms engaged in coal, timber, and machinery trade, with 40 companies dropping out of the top 100 compared to the previous year. Despite this, the IT sector emerged as the main growth driver, led by EPAM Systems, while transport-logistics firms lost ground. New entries included construction and development companies, such as Sahaty, founded by ex-Transition Cabinet member Valery Sakhashchyk. Warsaw’s Mazowieckie voivodeship remained the core hub for Belarusian business activity. To enter the 2023 top 100, firms needed annual revenues of at least PLN 22.7 million (around USD 6 million).

A Russian court has declared the activities of the gaming company “Lesta Games” as “extremist,” according to Ostorozhno, Novosti. The business has been linked to the well-known company Wargaming, which has Belarusian roots. Since 2022, Lesta Games has been developing “World of Tanks” — the iconic online game originally launched by Wargaming. The company has now been added to Rosfinmonitoring’s official list of extremist organisations, and its legal entities are to be transferred into state ownership. A company lawyer stated that it remains unclear whether the ruling will lead to restrictions on the distribution of its games. Lesta Games maintains that it has not violated any laws in either Russia or Belarus, and insists that it “has nothing to fear.”

Political prisoner Uladzimir Kniha was sentenced to an additional year of imprisonment by the Barysauski district court on 5 February this year. The information about his sentence became available only now. He was found guilty of malicious disobedience to the demands of the correctional institution administration. Kniha was detained after Siarhei Tsikhanousky’s pre-election picket in Hrodna in 2020. In June 2021, he was sentenced to four years in a high-security penal colony, and in 2023, another year was added under the article on disobedience to the colony administration. Convicting people for additional prison terms on charges of malicious disobedience to the demands of the administration is a typical tool of repression against political prisoners in Belarus, aimed at both preventing them from the release from jail at the end of their term and intimidating others. According to the Kraina for Life Foundation, Uladzimir is kept incommunicado, and his whereabouts are unknown.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre presented the results of the monitoring of the human rights situation in Belarus in May 2025. It was assessed as “extremely difficult” — repression against participants in the 2020 protests as well as criminal prosecution of dissidents, participants in protest initiatives, journalists, human rights defenders and lawyers continues. 80 cases of politically motivated repression were recorded in May. Human rights activists noted that the reduction in the known cases of repression was due to the cessation of access to the courts’ schedule since the beginning of spring 2025. Until then, courts’ schedule was the only official source of information that partially compensated for the lack of public state statistics on administrative and criminal prosecution. As of the end of May, 1,185 political prisoners were behind bars, of which 159 were women. During that month, 28 persons were recognised as political prisoners.

The Belarusian Helsinki Committee presented a new report on trends in state policy in Belarus. It noted that special attention is now paid to ideology. The authorities are introducing individual responsibility of the heads of organisations for the quality of “ideological work”. In the coming year, an increase in repressive pressure in the workplace and education system is expected. The status of family in a “socially dangerous situation” is now being used for political persecution. Starting from 2025, a family can be registered as unreliable if parents were held accountable under political charges. The application of the “high treason” charge is expanding. Previously, former military and security officials were persecuted under this charge, but recently it was applied in a criminal case against experts who conducted research on COVID-19 and the integration of Belarus with the EU, commissioned by foreign organisations.

Belarus was classified as a country without a space for civil society in the report “Atlas of Civil Society”, prepared by the German non-governmental organisation “Brot für die Welt”. The report noted that about 30% of the world’s population lives in “closed” states, where the space for civil society action is “completely closed, both legally and practically, and an atmosphere of fear prevails”. 29 states were classified as “closed”. 85% of the world’s population lives in states where civil society is limited, suppressed or closed; this applies to 115 out of 197 countries. Only 3.5% of the world’s population from 40 states lives in countries where full freedoms of speech, assembly, and association are guaranteed.

On 3 June, the Hrodna Regional Court sentenced Anton Matolka, an expert, blogger, and founder of the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project, to 20 years of imprisonment in high-security colony and a fine of 84,000 rubles (about 22,500 Euro) in absentia. He was found guilty on 12 charges, in particular, conspiracy to seize power, creation of an extremist organisation, financing and propaganda of extremism, organisation of mass riots, incitement of hostility, calls for sanctions against Belarus, and insulting the president. If we add up the sentences imposed by the court for each of the 12 charges, we get 118 years of imprisonment. However, the court partially added up these sentences and imposed 20 years in a reinforced regime colony. As part of the verdict, it was decided to collect 668,883.45 rubles (about 179 thousand Euro) of Anton Matolka’s property in the revenue of the state. The court seized a 1994 Mazda car, a garden house and a plot of land, 49.75 USD, 15.06 Euro, 30.77 rubles and 1.31 Euro in bank accounts, and an iPad A1337 tablet with a USB cable. Matolka was included in the list of persons involved in terrorism. Two of his projects, “MotolkoPomogi” and “Belarusian Hayun”, were recognised as extremist. Belarusian Hayun monitored the movements of the Russian military in Belarus and their participation in the invasion of Ukraine. The project was closed this winter after its chatbot, where subscribers could send information, was hacked. Detentions in the case of the Belarusian Hayun continue; at least 20 persons involved in the case are known, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. The detainees were charged with facilitating extremist activities.

A journalist (anonymised) from Brest will be tried for cooperation with the Belarusian Association of Journalists. According to the case file, the accused “no later than October 2023 joined a group of citizens united under the name of the Belarusian Association of Journalists, which was recognised as an extremist group by the KGB decision of 28 February 2023”. On 27 August 2021, the Supreme Court liquidated the BAJ at the request of the Ministry of Justice. The organisation continued its activities abroad. “Continuing to implement his intent aimed at participating in an extremist formation, from October 2023 to December 2024, he deliberately drafted at least 43 journalistic articles that were publicly available on the Internet,” the Prosecutor General’s Office claimed. These articles allegedly “contained deliberately false information about the social situation in Belarus and the legal status of its citizens and were aimed at discrediting the activities of government agencies”. The journalist was charged with creating or participating in an extremist group and was taken into custody. The maximum penalty for this charge is six years of imprisonment. According to the Belarusian Association of Journalists, 39 media workers are currently in detention.

Since the beginning of 2025, the BySol solidarity fund has evacuated more than 75 persons from Belarus, said Andrei Stryzhak, the head of the foundation. In the second quarter of the year, the number of evacuees increased significantly and amounted to more than 46 persons. He also reported that since the beginning of the year, BySol has paid 500 thousand Euro to those repressed. Stryzhak thanked all those involved in raising money. At the IV Conference of Belarusians of the World on 24 May in Warsaw, Stryzhak noted that due to the suspension of NGO funding by the new U.S. presidential administration, the Belarusian public sector is in the “worst situation in the last 25 years”. BySol faced the same challenges as other civil society organisations, he added, and “it probably will not work on the scale it currently does”. On 3 December 2021, the Ministry of Internal Affairs recognised the BySol as an “extremist formation”.

In Belarus, KGB officers searched the homes of participants of opinion polls conducted by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop, an independent analytical initiative founded in Warsaw in 2012 by sociologist Andrei Vardamacki. The initiative studies the political and informational preferences and moods of Belarusians. On 21 May 2025, the Belarusian authorities recognised Vardamacki, the initiative, and two of its employees as an “extremist formation”. On 22 May, ONT TV channel aired a “revealing” story about the Workshop’s activities. Searches were conducted at the organisation’s members homes. A criminal case was opened against one of them, the rest are in the status of witnesses. The security officers seized their laptops and phones. Political analyst Vadim Mojeiko considered the persecution of sociologists to be a demonstration of Lukashenka’s fear of independent analysts.

Tsina Palynska, a journalist and Catholic believer from Palotsk, and her 22-year-old daughter, Marharyta, are in custody in SIZO-2 in Vitsebsk. The details of the charges have not been officially disclosed, but it was suggested by human rights activists that the case may be related to the KGB’s decision to recognise the Belarusian Analytical Workshop as an “extremist formation”. On 6 June, Tsina Palynska, her daughter Marharyta and 12 other people were recognised as political prisoners.

The schedule of sessions on the Internet portal of the Supreme Court will be available only from users’ personal accounts, according to the statement of the court’s press service. It was noted that in connection with the amendments to the Code of Civil Procedure (which will enter into force on 1 January 2026), the modernisation of the “E-court services” is currently underway. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, the restriction of public access to the schedule of hearings “can be regarded as limiting the transparency of the judicial system, since ordinary citizens or journalists will not be able to view the schedule without registration”. The electronic court proceedings service accumulates the schedules of court sessions of all judicial instances of Belarus. The names of the accused and the articles of the Criminal Code charged against them are indicated in the schedule. Access to the schedule was terminated at the beginning of spring 2025. Previously, human rights defenders and the media could record the facts of political repression with the help of this service, noting articles of the Criminal Code, used for political persecution, such as “participating in protest actions”, “inciting hostility or discord”, crimes of “extremist orientation”, etc.

Dzmitri Razanovich, sentenced to 19 years of imprisonment in the “anarchist case” in 2021, had his regime tightened. He was transferred to a prison regime for three years. In 2024, a new criminal case was opened against him on charges of malicious disobedience to the colony administration, and he was sentenced to an additional nine months of imprisonment.

Former political prisoner Aliaksandr Klaskouski died of a heart problem. He was 46 years old. Klaskouski, who served in the police until 2005, took part in a protest against the falsification of election results on 19 December 2010. He was detained at his home on the night of 21 December 2010. He was severely beaten during the arrest. He was placed in the KGB pre-trial detention centre, accused of organising and participating in mass riots, and sentenced to five years of imprisonment in high-security colony. He was released on a pardon on 14 September 2011. After 2020, he left Belarus and lived in the USA. Information about deaths of three other former political prisoners, Valery Bohdan, Tamara Karavai and Hanna Kandratsenka, became available last month. Human rights activists attribute the deaths of former political prisoners, among other things, to conditions of detention in colonies, denial of medical care, dietary restrictions, and heavy labour.

Almost 7,000 information resources were recognised as “extremist” in Belarus, Marat Markau, head of the Ministry of Information reported. In total, the agency has limited the activities of 18,000 resources. Blocking of internet resources has intensified lately. “Last year, more than 3,150 resources were blocked. In five months of 2025, we have already reached this figure,” he noted.

On 4 June, the Congress of the European Federation of Journalists adopted a statement, calling for the release of imprisoned representatives of the Belarusian media. The Congress demanded that Belarus immediately release all imprisoned journalists and media workers and called on all international actors to put pressure on the Belarusian authorities to release the prisoners and stop the repression, as well as to help create opportunities for the continuation of independent media activities for Belarusian society.

On 5 June, a group of UN independent experts, including Gina Romero, Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association; Mary Lawlor, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders; Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism; and Irene Khan, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression, expressed concern about persistent violations of freedom of association in labour relations in Belarus, calling on the Government to fully cooperate with the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, UN human rights mechanisms, the International Labour Organisation and its supervisory bodies to ensure respect for the human rights of leaders and members of independent trade unions. Experts noted that independent trade unions have been liquidated and designated as “extremist organisations”, their leaders and members have been prosecuted under extremist and national security-related charges, imprisoned or forced into exile, their assets have been confiscated, and those in exile have been facing criminal prosecution in absentia. “Belarus must end the repression of independent trade unionists, who are also recognised as human rights defenders,” the experts said, — “The country must immediately release all trade union leaders and members imprisoned for exercising their right to freedom of expression, assembly and association, and revoke legislation and other measures that prevent independent trade unions from operating.”

The foreign ministries of Belarus and Russia held consultations in Moscow on matters of information policy on 2 June. Ruslan Varankou, spokesperson for the Belarusian MFA, and his Russian counterpart Maria Zakharova discussed joint initiatives and plans to “promote objective information about the Union State,” and agreed to implement “a number of joint projects aimed at fostering a balanced and reliable informational background around the Belarus–Russia strategic partnership.” During the meeting, Varankou presented Zakharova with a gift – an axe manufactured by MTZ – remarking that it was intended to “cut through to the unvarnished truth together, with a Belarusian axe.”

According to Lukashenka’s press service, he met with representatives of Chinese business circles on 3 June during his visit to China. However, their identities were not disclosed, and the report of the meeting was limited to a single quote from Lukashenka regarding “modernisation.” His visit to China began on 2 June, but no official status was assigned to it. Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Mikalai Snapkou emphasised that Xi Jinping would receive Lukashenka in the format of a “friendly lunch.” Snapkou called on the international community to follow the example of the Belarus–China friendship: “Let me stress once more — this is not a working visit, nor an official one. It is a visit for a family-style, friendly lunch. Perhaps the global agenda would also benefit from world leaders meeting to speak, not only about current affairs but about the future of their peoples. That is the essence of leadership — elected by the people. What we are witnessing today shows we cannot live like this any longer. We must live through joint development. President Lukashenka sets the example: live in peace for the good and prosperity of your people. There is no alternative. Otherwise, it is war.”

State-aligned propagandists were quick to glorify the visit. Ryhor Azaronak, writing in Minskaya Prauda, claimed Lukashenka had long understood that “the future lies with China”: “Today, it is the number one global power. Trump lashes out with sanctions and tariffs, puffing up and stomping around the Capitol in polished shoes. Xi, meanwhile, is courteous and silent, watching these juvenile theatrics from the vantage of eight thousand years of civilisation. Trump is amusing. Give him a rattle. Now there is a queue to see Xi Jinping. But Lukashenka — he is awaited. Always. Even if it is just for tea.” Lukashenka’s press service reported on 4 June that he and Xi held a meeting in Beijing. Lukashenka remarked that Xi had “correctly highlighted the defining feature of the current era — unprecedented pressure from the West, first and foremost on China.” The report went to great lengths to underline the leaders’ “warm personal friendship.” This narrative was carried forward by loyalist political analyst Andrei Lazutkin, who stated in state media that Xi and Lukashenka held a “family gathering,” labelling Trump “an orphan.” Lazutkin claimed that Belarusian authorities promote Chinese interests in Central and Eastern Europe: “The backdrop for the Belarusian president’s visit was favourable — Trump and his team once again came across as reckless, the EU as weak and provocative. Few realise that the Poles actively lobbied against Lukashenka in Beijing, blaming Belarus for the migrant crisis, stoking war, and cracking down on opposition. China said nothing — instead conducting joint drills near the Polish border, a warning of sorts. Polish presidents come and go, but the Belarus–China partnership is strategic, all-weather, and over 30 years strong. We guarantee China’s interests in the region, both logistically and diplomatically.” At the opening ceremony of the National Football Stadium in Minsk on 7 June, Lukashenka proposed erecting a monument to Xi Jinping at the stadium’s entrance in gratitude for what he described as “a gift from the Chinese people”: “It might be time to put up a statue to my friend Xi Jinping — after all, it was thanks to him that the Chinese built this stadium at their own expense.” He also remarked that the stadium would become a new symbol not only of Minsk but also of the “strong friendship” between Belarus and China.

Throughout this period, Belarusian state-aligned voices continued to echo Kremlin narratives regarding the war in Ukraine. Commenting on Ukrainian strikes against Russian strategic aviation bases, Lazutkin described the resumption of negotiations in Istanbul as taking place “against a backdrop of loud terrorist acts.” Another pro-government commentator, Aliaksandr Shpakouski, added: “The sabotage and terrorist attacks of the Kyiv regime were, unfortunately, successful and painful — both in terms of civilian casualties in Bryansk region and the destruction of expensive strategic aircraft. Yet they have had no effect on the situation on the battlefield or Ukraine’s long-term prospects. In the long run, Ukraine is losing and running out of steam.” Columnist Pavel Karnazytski claimed the strikes constituted terrorism and that “Moscow had valid grounds to withdraw from negotiations and respond with nuclear force.” MP Vadzim Hihin, writing for SB. Belarus Segodnya, declared that Kyiv’s “terrorist attack” would ultimately lead to its defeat, attributing the operation to Ukrainian and Western intelligence services. According to Hihin, “The operation can rightly be called a joint NATO action.”

After the results of Poland’s presidential run-off were announced on 2 June, Belarusian propagandists rushed to interpret the outcome. They reinforced previous narratives portraying opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki as favouring Washington, and ruling coalition candidate Rafal Trzaskowski as “a Brussels puppet.” Aliaksei Dzermant claimed that “the Polish Trumpists” had prevailed, speculating the coalition may soon collapse. He nonetheless welcomed the slight reduction in the likelihood of Poland engaging in full-scale war. Ryhor Azaronak diverged from the rest, asserting both candidates were US proxies: “Nawrocki crawled to Trump’s polished boots, Trzaskowski kissed Obama’s leather. The Polish election was a contest between the U.S. Republican and Democratic parties. Both have their plans for this territory. But to both, the Poles themselves are mere kindling.” Andrei Mukavozchyk, writing for SB, described the new president as “a systemic Russophobe,” lamenting that regardless of who is in office, Poland “remains a U.S. vassal in Europe.” Other state-aligned voices expressed feigned sympathy for “ordinary Poles,” while dismissing the prospects for improved Belarus–Poland relations. Anton Papou, SB: “… counterproductive confrontation with the Union State will continue. For Belarus, there was little difference between the two candidates — both irrationally view their eastern neighbour as an enemy. It is the ordinary Poles one can feel for: the madness will only escalate, as politicians tear each other apart under the watchful eye of foreign handlers.” Lazutkin added: “You cannot reach a deal directly with Poles, because their system of governance only unites around external enemies. Right now, that ‘enemy’ is us and Russia. Hence, there is no point in dialogue — it would undermine the ratings of both camps.”

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