Belarus Review by iSANS — June 02, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 26 May and 1 June, at least 22 Russian drones of the “Shahed” type were recorded in the Belarusian airspace. Later, almost all of them returned to Ukrainian territory. No reports have been received regarding the destruction of drones in the Belarusian airspace.

On 27 May, it became known that scheduled training assemblies for reservists of the territorial troops of the Cherykau and Krasnapolle districts of the Mahiliou region had commenced. The assemblies will implement a range of activities aimed at enhancing the skills of executive committee officials in the formation and training of the territorial troops. Particular attention will be paid to the joint performance of tasks by various forces of the territorial defence, including the territorial troops, internal affairs bodies, and the internal troops. Over 200 reservists were called up from the reserve for the training. The exercises will continue until 20 June.

On 27 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported that the practical stage of an off-site joint conference of the defence ministries of Belarus and Russia was underway at the “Barysau” training ground. The event focuses on exchanging practical experience in organising and conducting combat training activities. Notably, the Russian Ministry of Defence did not publish any information regarding the conference on its platforms.

According to the Head of the Main Directorate for Combat Training of the Armed Forces of Belarus Uladzimir Bely training stations were prepared to cover pressing issues that need to be studied and integrated into troop training today. Particular focus was given to preparing units for the use of various types of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as countering them. Other topics discussed at the conference included the evacuation of wounded personnel from damaged equipment, training personnel in knife combat, and the use of motorcycles and quad bikes in assault operations.

Also on 27 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported the arrival of Su-30SM2 aircraft. According to available information, two fighter jets with tail numbers “09” and “10” respectively arrived at the “Baranovichi” airfield. Thus, a total of ten Su-30SM/SM2 fighter jets are now in service with the 61^st Fighter Air Base. The Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich spoke about the advantages of the new aircraft: “First and foremost, the capabilities for combat application against aerial, ground, and maritime targets have significantly increased. Characteristics have been substantially enhanced due to the integration of modern aviation weapons and the modernisation of the on-board radar system. Jamming resistance and electronic warfare capabilities have also been improved,” he stated. According to Lukyanovich, another batch of Su-30SM2 aircraft is expected to be delivered to the Belarusian Air Force in 2025. Since it was previously reported that Belarus would receive a full squadron (twelve units), it is likely that this refers to the delivery of two additional aircraft.

On 28 May, during the session of the Council of Defence Ministers of the CSTO member states in Bishkek, the Minister of Defence of Belarus Viktar Khrenin stated that a decision had been made to reduce the parameters of the “Zapad-2025” exercise and to move its main manoeuvres deeper into the territory of Belarus, away from the western borders. “In doing so, we once again confirm, not only in word but in actions, our readiness for dialogue, compromise, and de-escalation. To be honest, we are doing this without expecting a constructive response,” he said. According to the Head of the Department for International Military Cooperation Valery Ravenka, despite the changes in parameters, foreign observers will be invited to the “Zapad-2025” exercise. “What changes in parameters (of the ‘Zapad-2025’ exercise – editor’s note) are expected? Primarily, a reduction in the number of troops participating in the exercise by nearly half. This means the exercise will be non-observable, and we will not be obliged to notify under the Vienna Document. At the same time, Belarus will notify all countries of the activities being conducted and their parameters. We also intend to organise observation of these exercises,” said Ravenka. He also noted that the decision to revise the parameters of “Zapad-2025” had been made back in April. In response to Poland’s plans to conduct large-scale divisional exercises due to the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres, Belarus will hold company-level tactical exercises in the Hrodna district.

On 28 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported that a ceremony for the transfer of new and modernised communication equipment had taken place at the 619^th base for storage, repair, modernisation, and disposal of communications assets. A total of 26 units of equipment were delivered to the troops, including command and staff vehicles, digital radio relay stations, integrated communication systems, and around 160 various portable communication devices. Among the transferred equipment were the following items: one P-240 MB “Kaiman-KAS” integrated communication system, six R-142NMB “Start” combined radio stations, one R-414MBRP “Sosna-2” radio relay station, three R-144UMB mobile communication nodes, and others.

On 29 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported that the heads of military media and the information department of the ministry were on a visit to Iran. The delegation was headed by the Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for Ideological Work of the Ministry of Defence Aliaksei Titski. During the visit, discussions were held on the development of cooperation in military journalism, information and cultural activities, countering information threats, and prospects for cooperation between the military departments of the two countries, including possible joint media projects. It was also reported that the Belarusian delegation participated in the symbolic launch of the Russian-language version of the website of the Defapress news agency — the official information resource of the Iranian Armed Forces.

On 30 May, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported the receipt of new Mi-35M transport and combat helicopters within the framework of military-technical cooperation with Russia. Four helicopters were delivered to the 50^th Mixed Aviation Base, located at the “Machuliscy” airfield. It was noted that the Mi-35M is a modernised version of the Mi-24 combat helicopter. It is capable of performing a wide range of tasks: engaging enemy personnel and equipment, providing fire support, deploying troops, evacuating the wounded, conducting reconnaissance, and transporting cargo. It should be recalled that the contract for the delivery of the first batch of four Mi-35M helicopters was signed in August 2020. In 2021, it was announced that there were plans to procure a full squadron of Mi-35Ms — twelve helicopters. Deliveries were made in three batches of four units each — in August 2023, April 2024, and May 2025, respectively. Thus, the contract for the delivery of the Mi-35M squadron has been fully completed.

On 30 May, a training session titled “Military Security and Defence of the Republic of Belarus” took place in Brest. The event was attended by the heads of regional and Minsk city executive committees, representatives of military commissariats, the Ministry of Defence, the General Staff, and other agencies. Such events are held annually. Their goal is to improve the training level of officials in matters of joint troop operations in modern military conflicts, as well as to enhance skills in weapons handling. The training programme included the following topics: information on the results of building the territorial defence system and its main development directions, familiarisation with the operational concept of territorial troop units during the guarding and defence of key facilities using electronic warfare means, demonstration of methods for protecting the weapons, equipment, and personnel of territorial troops from drone attacks, and procedures for joint operations of the Armed Forces of Belarus and territorial troops in defensive combat.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia had suggested holding peace talks in Belarus, but Ukraine considers this unacceptable due to Belarus’s role in the invasion. Instead, Kyiv sees Turkey, the Vatican, and Switzerland as the most realistic venues for negotiations and has already undertaken preparatory work with these countries. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Turkish leaders for their mediation efforts and confirmed upcoming meetings to continue discussions. He noted that while countries like Malta and some African states have also offered to host negotiations, Russia has only shown interest in Belarus — a non-neutral location in Ukraine’s view. Zelenskyy also stressed that Ukraine is ready for any format of negotiations but believes discussions must take place on neutral ground to be taken seriously. In her turn, Belarusian democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has firmly backed Zelenskyy’s rejection of Russia’s proposal to hold peace talks in Minsk. She stated that Zelenskyy is right to refuse, as Aliaksandr Lukashenka is not a neutral party but a co-aggressor in Putin’s war: “This is not the will of the Belarusian people,” Tsikhanouskaya wrote on X. “We stand with Ukraine and continue our fight for a free, peaceful, and democratic Belarus.”

In an interview with CNN, Belarusian democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned of the dangers posed by the upcoming joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises scheduled for September this year. She emphasised the need to remember the outcome of the last such drills in 2022, which preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “This could be preparation for a possible attack on Western countries,” she said. “It may be just a provocation, but the fact remains: as long as Lukashenka remains in power and serves Putin’s interests, Belarus will continue to be a source of threat — from hosting nuclear weapons and joint exercises to orchestrating migration attacks and hijacking aircraft.” Tsikhanouskaya stressed the urgency of removing Belarus from the war, dismantling the regime, and giving Belarusians the chance to freely choose their future. She added that Russia does not view Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, or other post-Soviet states as independent nations, but as disobedient children to be brought back into line. “Putin wants loyal local Lukashenkas in all these countries — ready to serve the master,” she said.

A joint investigation by Belarusian, Lithuanian, and Russian journalists has uncovered a scheme in which luxury European clothing, banned under U.S. and EU sanctions, is smuggled into Russia via Belarus. The Belarusian logistics company “Belcargo” offers to deliver high-end brands like Balenciaga and Louis Vuitton at drastically undervalued prices — jackets worth over EUR 3,000 were declared for just 4 dollars. This practice allows Russian clients to bypass customs duties, while also depriving the Belarusian budget of VAT and import fees, potentially costing the country millions. The main exporter, “Trading House Exporttorg”, is linked to a former aide of Lukashenka and has a history of sanctions evasion involving luxury goods and even microchips. Despite its central role, the company remains unsanctioned by the EU or the U.S. Supporting logistics are provided through Lithuania, with a warehouse managed by Vinges Terminalas, although the company denies knowingly participating. The scheme highlights how loopholes are exploited for profit, while public finances in Belarus and Russia suffer losses that could otherwise support healthcare or education.

According to Finnish outlet YLE, the Ministry of Defence of Finland is planning to prohibit Belarusian citizens from purchasing property in the country. Previously, the Finnish Parliament passed a law allowing the Ministry of Defence to block real estate transactions involving citizens of states engaged in war. This restriction may also apply to Belarusian organisations, in addition to Russian citizens and entities. The Ministry intends to issue a decree by the end of June that would formally ban Belarusians from acquiring residential property in Finland. However, applications for property transaction permits submitted by Russian and Belarusian citizens before the decree comes into force will be reviewed under the standard procedure.

The number of attempts to illegally cross the Polish border has halved since the Sejm adopted legislation restricting the acceptance of asylum applications, according to Bild, citing Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita. Even more striking is the nearly 97% drop in the number of asylum applications. Since the suspension took effect, only 23 new applications were submitted by 22 May — a sharp decrease compared to almost 800 during the same period last year. Authorities also recorded approximately 6,100 illegal border crossing attempts, down from 11,700 over the same timeframe in 2023. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government suspended the right to seek asylum at the end of March and has recently extended this measure for another 60 days. The move was reportedly in response to what officials describe as the deliberate “instrumentalisation of migration” by Belarus.

Lithuania, which filed a lawsuit against Belarus in the International Court of Justice, is demanding more than 200 million Euro in compensation for damage caused by the migration crisis. “The claim of the Republic of Lithuania stated that the state will demand compensation for damages, and <…> initial damage estimates amount to more than 200 million Euro allocated to overcome the crisis in the internal affairs system alone. The calculations will be refined,” the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice said. European Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner expressed support for Lithuania regarding the claim for damages from Belarus.

Since the beginning of 2025, Germany has imported EUR 1.3 million worth of nitrogen fertilisers from Belarus — the same amount as during the entire year of 2024, according to data from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture obtained by Deutsche Welle. A total of 3,168.9 tonnes of nitrogen fertilisers were delivered from Belarus to Germany in 2025 so far, compared to 3,275.1 tonnes in 2024, also valued at EUR 1.3 million. In 2023, imports were lower at 2,533.6 tonnes worth EUR 830,000, and in 2022 only 26.4 tonnes worth EUR 19,000 were recorded. This means that since 2022, Germany’s imports of Belarusian nitrogen fertilisers have increased 120-fold. However, Belarus still accounts for just 0.3% of Germany’s total nitrogen fertiliser imports in 2025. At the same time, imports of Belarusian potash fertilisers have remained completely suspended since 2022 due to EU sectoral sanctions introduced in June 2021.

According to the official press service, Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka will visit the People’s Republic of China from 2 to 4 June. In Beijing, he is scheduled to hold a “traditional friendly family meeting” with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The parties are expected to meet first one-on-one, followed by informal talks. During these discussions, they will reportedly review the current state and future prospects of Belarus–China relations, with a focus on “enhancing practical cooperation through joint projects and advancing multilateral initiatives.” International cooperation will also be a key topic on the agenda. The visit programme includes several other meetings and negotiations.

Nine months after his release, 58-year-old former political prisoner Valery Bohdan died. It was reported that his blood clot broke off. This happened at the very beginning of 2025 but information about his death became available only now. Bohdan was detained on 18 May 2021, and on 17 September 2021, he was sentenced to three years of imprisonment for posting on social networks. Bohdan was released in March 2024, having served his full sentence. On social media, he commented that it was difficult for him to rehabilitate and that he was “visiting hospitals”. Earlier this month, it became known that two other former political prisoners died after their release at the beginning of 2025. The 45-year-old Tamara Karavai died of heart disease. The 39-year-old Hanna Kandratsenka died of cancer. She was diagnosed while serving her sentence. She was taken to a cancer clinic in Homel for treatment, but despite her serious illness, she was not granted early release. The main cause of death among former political prisoners is the lack of proper medical care in colonies and prisons. Illnesses, combined with psychological trauma, increase the risk of death both in custody and after release. Not only conditions of detention in Belarusian prisons themselves, but also the discriminatory treatment of political prisoners in matters of medical care contribute to this.

Anatol Latushka, a cousin of Pavel Latushka (deputy head of the Coordination Council of the democratic opposition and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management), was sentenced to another six months of imprisonment for “malicious disobedience” to the demands of the administration of penitentiary institution. Anatol Latushka was sentenced to six years of imprisonment in September 2022. A year ago, he was transferred to a prison regime. This regime differs from the colony regime in that prisoners almost always remain in a cell. Some can work, but not everyone is given this opportunity. The number of parcels and visits is also limited.

Victoryia Kulsha’s prison term was extended for the fourth time. She is the only person involved in the case of “97% Drivers” who still remains in custody. In 2021, she was sentenced to two and a half years of imprisonment and was supposed to be released in the fall of 2022. However, new criminal cases are constantly being opened against her in the colony, allegedly for disobeying the demands of the administration. In April 2025, she was taken back to the pre-trial detention centre to be sentenced for the fourth time. The same month, Kulsha went on a hunger strike in protest against a new accusation of malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration. This is her sixth hunger strike in custody. Political prisoners who met with her in the pre-trial detention centre and in the Homel colony noted that despite the pressure, she has not given up her views. “The security forces were constantly trying to break her,” said one of the former political prisoners, “While she was in the pre-trial detention centre, her father died. In such cases, the accused are immediately informed of this. But in the case of Victoryia this information was initially hidden. They waited until her birthday, and then ‘congratulated’ her with this news.”

Former political prisoner, volunteer of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre Andrei Chapyuk was evacuated from Belarus. This was announced by the head of the BYSOL foundation, Andrei Stryzhak. Chapyuk was detained in October 2020, in Minsk. He was charged with participating in mass riots; creating a criminal organisation or participating in it; inciting racial, national, religious or other social hostility or discord; and desecrating buildings and damaging property. In September 2022, the Minsk City Court sentenced him to six years of imprisonment in a high-security penal colony and a fine of 500 basic units (at that time — about 6,300 Euro). In February 2023, the Supreme Court reduced his term of imprisonment to five years and nine months in a high-security penal colony. Later, Chapyuk was put on the “terrorist list”. On 18 April 2025, Andrei was supposed to be released after fully serving his sentence. However, he was not given to his relatives, who were waiting for him near the colony, but was handcuffed and taken away. Pro-government telegram channels reported that he was taken to testify in some case, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre wrote.

The security forces began threatening stand-up comedian Vanya Usovich. A telegram channel close to the Main Directorate for Combating Organised Crime and Corruption stated that in 2020, Usovich allegedly called for riots, and threatened that the comedian could “rest for five years or repeat the fate of Kamissarenka”. Comedian Slava Kamissarenka was sentenced in absentia to six years of imprisonment and added to the “terrorist list”.

On 29 May, two years ago, in Hrodna, as a result of a provocation at a picket to collect signatures for the nomination of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as a presidential candidate, blogger and author of the YouTube channel “Country for Life” Siarhey Tsikhanouski was detained. He was sentenced to 18 years of imprisonment. In February last year, he was additionally sentenced to one and a half years of imprisonment on charges of disobedience to the demands of the colony administration. Siarhey Tsikhanouski has been held incommunicado for more than two years. On the anniversary of his detention, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski posted a message in which he said: “We remember Siarhey every day while supporting the struggle for a free, democratic Belarus.”

The Investigative Committee stated that it identified more than 1,000 users of the New Belarus platform. New Belarus is a project created in December 2022 to unite and support Belarusians. In January 2023, the authorities recognised it as an “extremist formation”. The Investigative Committee reported that a criminal case is being investigated against the project participants and the project manager Pavel Lieber. “The investigators have information about the structure of the extremist formation, its members, leaders, goals and motives for functioning. There is reliable information regarding more than 1,000 users who have registered in the New Belarus application and are included in its other services,” the Investigative Committee stated. It was claimed that the members of the “extremist formation” have been charged and some of them have been detained. It was not specified exactly how many people were detained or arrested.

The security forces searched the editorial offices of the regional publications Vecherniy Babruisk and Babruisk Info, as well as the former employees of the newspaper Volnae Hlybokae. This was reported on National Television (ONT) in a story titled “German hack job in the Belarusian media: How Germany paid for advertising from extremist publications”. According to the presenter, the German Embassy in Belarus concluded “around a hundred contracts” on advertising Germany with Vecherniy Babruisk, and the editorial staff received more than 30,000 USD under these contracts since 2020. The home of the editor-in-chief of Vecherniy Babruisk, Valiantsin Sysoi, was also searched. Security officers allegedly found air rifles and a pistol in his possession. Sysoi “confirmed” on camera that he had received money from the German Embassy. The story claimed that similar “contracts for the provision of advertising services” were found in the editorial office of Babruisk Info. Volnae Hlybokae also allegedly published paid laudatory materials about Germany. At the end of the story, it was claimed that other Belarusian publications also received money from Germany, and that the German Embassy has spent 226,000 USD on them since 2020.

On May 30, the website of the newspaper Vecherniy Babruisk stopped opening in Belarus. When trying to access the page, a text appeared stating that the website was blocked by the decision of the Ministry of Information. The website is still available outside of Belarus. Vecherniy Babruisk has not been declared “extremist materials” and is not banned in Belarus.

On 30 May, the Pervamaiski District Court of Minsk considered the criminal case against 78-year-old activist Nina Bahinskaya and closed it. She was released but assigned preventive supervision. In its decision, the court could take into account the age of the Bahinskaya, the insignificance of the “offense” (the patch on the collar of the coat) as the ground to apply Article 79 of the Criminal Code — “conviction without punishment”. The court session was held behind closed doors; the public, including representatives of diplomatic missions who came to support Bahinskaya, was not allowed to attend it.

The International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS) published a report “Evolution of the Persecution of Political Opponents by the Lukashenka Regime: Intensification of the Use of Old Methods and Introduction of New Repressive Practices”. The report stated that to eliminate any manifestation of dissent, the Lukashenka regime has developed a whole arsenal of repressive instruments and constantly updates it. Apart from introducing completely new methods of repression, the regime gives “a new meaning” to those that have been used before by applying them massively, more systematically, or with regard to new groups of people. Despite the fact that repression in Belarus is widespread and affects all categories of people, there is a number of professions that put people in the most vulnerable position. These include media workers and bloggers, teachers and professors, priests, and former security officers. Among the new trends in repression are suppression of information about political repression, preventive checks and conversations with “unreliable persons”, tightened checks at the borders, arrests of people returning from abroad, expansion of the grounds for taking children away from their parents, and expansion of the list of charges on which a person can be tried in absentia. Some of the new instruments were selectively applied in the past but lately they have become a method of choice. The methods of transnational repression were given special attention in the report since mass use of most of them was registered recently and has not yet received sufficient attention from human rights defenders, researchers and the international community and are not addressed as a key problem.

The UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Belarus, Nils Muižnieks, published his first report. The document covered the period from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025. The report not only confirmed the ongoing crisis in the field of civil and political rights in the country but also recorded its aggravation. In particular, it stated that the presidential “elections” on 26 January 2025 did not comply with the provisions of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights due to the total lack of freedoms and repression before and after the vote; more than 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars; there is the systematic practice of ill-treatment of prisoners; cases of incommunicado detention, torture and pressure continue to be recorded; the use of transnational repression, including trials in absentia, confiscation of property of Belarusians in exile, and revenge on their families in Belarus is widespread. A separate section of the report was devoted to repression against the LGBTQ+ community.

The name of a third person put on the Interpol wanted list due to the forced landing of a Ryanair plane at Minsk airport on 23 May 2021, has become known. In September 2024, a court in Warsaw arrested three people in absentia in a terrorism case in connection with the hijacking of a Ryanair plane. The names of Leanid Churo, the former head of Belaeronavigation, and Yauhey Tsyhanau, the head of the flight control shift, were mentioned. A full name of a high-ranking Belarusian, KGB officer Andrei A., was not mentioned. In January 2025, Interpol issued a “red notice” to search for them. Now it has become known that the third person is Andrei Anatolyevich Mytko, head of the ninth Main Directorate of the KGB. The Polish National Prosecutor’s Office reported that the arrest of these three people will be sought through Interpol and European arrest warrants, it is not planned to apply to Belarus through international cooperation mechanisms.

Human Rights Watch recognised the Belarusian business as an object of political repression. According to the statement, Belarusian authorities have retaliated against companies and their workers that supported peaceful anti-government protests or spoke out about human rights violations. They also targeted exiled Belarusian entrepreneurs who denounced repression or participated in the Association of Belarusian Business Abroad. “Retaliatory measures” were taken against them: arbitrary inspections, raids, searches, administrative fines, arrests and criminal prosecution on fictitious charges of economic crimes. The statement was published on the eve of the conference of the International Labor Organisation. It will be held in June 2025 and will include a special session on Belarus in connection with the country’s failure to fulfil its human rights obligations as an ILO member.

During the reporting period, representatives of the Lukashenka regime continued to comment on the Russian-Ukrainian war. On 26 May, Minskaya Pravda’s anti-Ukrainian columnist Yury Uvarau published an article echoing Kremlin propaganda, claiming that Russia is conducting a “special operation” to cleanse Ukraine of the “brown plague” and accusing the West of waging a “proxy war against Russia at the expense of Ukrainian lives.”

Propagandists also paid close attention to the Trump administration’s attempts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, offering their own assessments. Many resorted to ironic personal jabs at the US president, remarking that “Trump is no longer the same.” Pro-government political analyst Andrei Lazutkin commented: “Everything seemed fine just a moment ago — he was talking cheerfully about grandchildren and wives on the phone — and now Donald is rushing to take revenge for the stolen hypersonic technology, insulting VVP [Putin] and threatening oil sanctions. In short, the fickleness stems from differing political approaches. In the West, politics is a show, and a good media figure must always ride the wave — or they will be replaced by someone even more scandalous and interesting. In this regard, Donald has no rivals, and the world will surely lose something without him. But when the orange man frowns, he is essentially selling thin air — his favour. Because arms, communications, and equipment continue to arrive in Ukraine, and from the second half of the year, they will at best be cleared through EU customs as local purchases — only to end up in Ukraine anyway.” “Expert” Aliaksei Dzermant also noted that “Trumpushka” [a diminutive and pejorative version of Trump’s last name] has already begun to threaten “Vladimir Vladimirovich” [Putin]  and claimed that Russian Trump supporters constitute a “fifth column.” Uvarau, meanwhile, lamented that while Russia “diplomatically and with maximum tact” leaves Trump room to manoeuvre, his administration “deliberately amplifies” anti-Russian narratives and “turns a blind eye to Ukrainian war crimes.” Trump, he writes, may have “adorned himself with the laurels of a peacemaker,” but he refuses to acknowledge that “it was the United States that started the war against Russia in Ukraine.” He goes on to praise the Kremlin for “not escalating the situation,” despite there being “more than enough legitimate grounds for the use of nuclear weapons.” “…Ukraine and its Western masters persist in provoking Russia with donkey-like obstinacy. What if Moscow’s patience runs out tomorrow? Are they really ready? I doubt it. Considering the capabilities of ‘Oreshnik’, European capitals could be reduced to dust within minutes. So, what is the point of this sabre-rattling and endless provocation? In my view, there is only one answer: raising the stakes ahead of negotiations. But they fail to grasp the difference in mentality with the Russians. For them, politics is a game — and often a dirty one, a vile act of performance. But for Russia, it is now a sacred war. So, the cost of these games for the West could be very high,” writes Uvarau.

A separate theme pushed by Belarusian propagandists to both domestic and foreign audiences was a call for Belarus to participate in, or mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. On 27 May, MP Vadzim Hihin published an article in SB. Belarus Today lavishing praise on the Belarusian authorities for facilitating a prisoner exchange the previous week. In his view, the country “proved to be a reliable and effective partner in such a complex and delicate matter,” and Russia appreciated this — unlike Zelenskyy, who “did not express any gratitude.” “Indeed, no one understands the root causes and essence of this conflict better than we do. After all, we are close people, part of a single cultural and civilisational community. We too are painfully affected by the tragedy of the schism that befell the Ukrainian people after the Maidans. For Belarus, a peaceful resolution is not part of some geopolitical or PR strategy. For us, it is a matter of securing a safe future. In this regard, we are far more effective than overseas intermediaries,” he writes. Notably, Hihin fails to mention that in 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarusian territory. Pro-government military expert Aliaksandr Tsishchanka echoed Hihin’s sentiment, claiming that “the Belarusian component of the prisoner exchange procedure was impeccable.” He too pointed to Putin’s gratitude and Zelenskyy’s “silence.” “Belarus neither insists on nor begs for a mediator role, but our platform is uniquely suited to resolution — not only logistically, but also in spirit. Ukraine and Russia are just like Belarus. We are historically incapable of remaining uninvolved: we share borders, we belong to the same Slavic family. Experience shows that attempts to rely on third-party expertise in our relations do not serve our interests. So yes, there may be alternatives to Belarusian involvement, but they only complicate the process without solving the problem,” Tsishchanka argued.

On 28 May, at a meeting of the CSTO Council of Defence Ministers, Belarusian Minister Viktar Khrenin stated that Minsk views the strengthening of military capabilities in Europe as a military threat that could lead to conflict. His remarks were steeped in the usual Russian propaganda lines: “All the ongoing large-scale militarisation processes in the region, the open competition for dominance in military and political influence unfolding in Europe, are seen by us as a potential external military threat, one which, under certain conditions, may escalate into an armed conflict. Western politicians have chosen a path of hostility and an arms race. The idea that a new war is inevitable and that there is no alternative to confrontation with Russia is being systematically instilled in the minds of ordinary Europeans.”

That same day, following the XIII International Meeting of High Representatives overseeing national security, Belarusian Security Council Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich told journalists in Moscow that the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Belarus was “a timely step in strategic deterrence that will cool hot heads.” He stressed that the decision to deploy the “Oreshnik” system in Belarus was taken by Putin and Lukashenka: “Work is underway in this area. Statements by Ukrainian officials and others claiming it’s a bluff — that there is nothing there — let them live in hope. We are confident in what we are doing. This weapon will serve as a reliable response to any aggression.” On 30 May, during exercises in Brest, Valfovich also claimed that “the intensified militarisation of Poland and the Baltic states — including plans to build new arms and ammunition factories — shows that the conflict in Ukraine may be a prelude to an even more intense confrontation between the Anglo-Saxon West and Russia.” He did not mention that neighbouring countries are strengthening their defences in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

During the same period, propagandists closely followed the political campaign in Poland ahead of the second round of the presidential elections. Many concluded that neither candidate would be friendly to the Belarusian regime. SB columnist Anton Papou warned that “one cannot rule out increased external interference, even the rollout of a Romanian-style scenario, as Poland is a tempting prize for the EU and Democrats from across the ocean, due to its geographical location and a political system already occupied by the West.” Pro-government and pro-Russian expert Aliaksei Dzermant wrote on Telegram that the two candidates — Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki — “broke all records for degradation.” In his view, “Trumpist influence in Eastern Europe is limited,” as “Brussels maintains a firm grip on the region — evidenced by the victory of Nicușor Dan in Romania.” “If the Americans do not intervene seriously, the same could happen in Poland — a candidate from the Eurogays will win,” Dzermant warned.

Speaking about the presidency in Belarus on ONT, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Belarus, Siarhei Syrankou, did not rule out that in future, the head of state could be chosen by the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA). He advocated for renaming the Belarusian “president” as “chairman,” noting that Xi Jinping also holds that title in China: “It is really quite simple. The term ‘president’ still, like it or not, stems from a Western tradition. Given the current special relationship with the West and the expectations of ordinary people — including communists — I believe that the term ‘chairman’ is more in tune with the Belarusian mentality.”

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Best regards,
iSANS team