Belarus Review by iSANS — July 7, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 30 June and 6 July, at least two Russian “Shahed”-type unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in the Belarusian airspace. No reports have been received regarding their destruction.

On 1 July, during a ceremonial gathering on the occasion of Independence Day, Aliaksandr Lukashenka made a number of statements — regarding nuclear weapons, the “Oreshnik” missile system, and the “Zapad-2025” military exercises. According to the dictator, nuclear weapons have already been deployed in Belarus, and he rejected the notion that this has placed the country at a greater risk. “Another topic that has been circulating recently is that of nuclear weapons, especially the ‘Oreshnik’ system. You know, I understand those who say: well, nuclear weapons have been stationed in Belarus, and that has put us under threat. That idea originated from over there. But name me a case in history, or even now — who would even dream of attacking a country that possesses nuclear weapons? This is not about playing games or putting on a show. I do not want — and I say this sincerely — I do not want anyone attacking you or my country, like they used to,” he stated. Lukashenka also reiterated that the “Oreshnik” missile system will be stationed in Belarus by the end of 2025. He expressed gratitude to the Russian side for its assistance in deploying what he referred to as “serious types of weaponry”. “I am confident that those among our supporters who do not yet understand this will come to understand it — and without the need for war. Therefore, the ‘Oreshnik’ has a rightful place on the Belarusian soil. To prevent uprisings,” he declared. Commenting on the “Zapad-2025” exercises, Lukashenka stated that their relocation deeper into Belarusian territory was intended to reduce regional tensions. In his view, NATO’s “Defender Europe 2025” exercises are being held too close to the Belarusian border (10 to 15 kilometres away — ed.). Although the scale of the manoeuvres appears threatening, Belarus is doing everything it can to reduce tension in the region. Consequently, a decision was made to modify the parameters of “Zapad-2025”. “We have reduced troop numbers by almost half and moved their deployment sites hundreds of kilometres deeper into our territory, farther from the border,” Lukashenka stated.

Also on 1 July, during the graduation ceremony for higher military educational institutions and senior officer staff, the Minister of Defence of Belarus Viktar Khrenin spoke about the “Zapad-2025” exercises in a broadcast on the state television channel “Pervyi Informatsionnyi”. Responding to a journalist’s question about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim that Lukashenka had been frightened (by Ukraine’s reaction to the presence of a Russian contingent in Belarus — ed.), and had therefore moved the exercises away from the western borders, Khrenin responded as follows: “They can say whatever they like. We understand everything perfectly well — our President never takes decisions under pressure, and he is never afraid of anything. The decision was not even made this year. The concept was presented to the President last year. And gradually, as the information was communicated, it was decided that the exercises would take place. So, the decision that has been made — it was made long ago,” he said. However, Khrenin’s statement that there was effectively no change in the location of the exercises and that the decision was taken in advance contradicts Lukashenka’s own statement made on the same day.

Servicemen from the 336^th Rocket Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus conducted a field deployment and training exercises at a training ground in Russia. The culmination of the drills was the live firing of “Polonez” multiple launch rocket systems. This was reported on 6 July by “VoyenTV”, the television broadcaster of the Ministry of Defence of Belarus. The location and timeframe of the exercises, as well as other details, were not disclosed. It is known that “Polonez” crews regularly carry out training and live launches at ranges in both Russia and Kazakhstan. The last such exercises were reported in December 2024.

A democratic Belarus is a key interest for Lithuania. This was stated by Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kestutis Budrys, who met with the leader of the Belarusian Democratic Forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and her husband, former political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski on 2 July. According to the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the meeting focused on the recent release of 14 Belarusian political prisoners. The Tsikhanouskis expressed gratitude to Lithuania for its principled stance, which contributed to the prisoners’ release. “A free, democratic, and human rights-respecting Belarus as our neighbour is a vital interest for Lithuania,” the minister emphasised, reaffirming Lithuania’s unwavering support for the Belarusian people’s struggle for freedom and democracy, the Foreign Ministry reported. Budrys stressed that as long as the Lukashenka regime remains in power, it is essential to ensure the safety of Belarusian democratic forces and their families who have found refuge in Lithuania. He also described Siarhei Tsikhanouski’s release as a significant step, but underscored the need to continue the fight for the unconditional release of all political prisoners. “Lithuania calls on the international community to increase sanctions and pressure on the Belarusian regime until all political prisoners are released and real democratic reforms begin, as well as until this regime stops supporting the Kremlin regime, which is carrying out aggression against Ukraine and its people,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.

Later, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya congratulated Lithuania on Statehood Day, which is celebrated annually on 6 July. “We warmly congratulate Lithuania on the Statehood Day. Today marks the coronation of Mindaugas, the first Grand Duke of Lithuania. Belarusians are proud to share this heritage and are deeply grateful to Lithuania for its friendship and support in our struggle for freedom. Ačiū, Lietuva!” — wrote the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces on X.

On 2 July, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s press service announced the pardon of 16 individuals, some of whom had been convicted under so-called “extremist articles”. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the release and urged that efforts continue to free all political prisoners. “It is wonderful that these people can finally return to their families, embrace their loved ones, and hear the joyful laughter of their children. But we must not forget that 16 people represent just over one percent of the more than one thousand political prisoners,” said the democratic movement leader. “The physical and psychological condition of those still behind bars is gradually deteriorating. The stories of Viktoryia Kulsha and Valeryia Kastsiuhova show how the regime really treats political prisoners, how it values human life — viewing each individual as a bargaining chip in the struggle to maintain power.”

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed Belarusians on the occasion of the Independence Day, marked on 3 July. She noted that today Belarus is more dependent on Russia than ever before. However, Tsikhanouskaya expressed her belief that Belarusians deserve genuine freedom and independence, and that the true Day of Sovereignty will be celebrated when the country once again belongs to its people. She emphasised that Belarus ranks among the lowest in the world for civil liberties, describing the official celebrations as resembling a dystopia. Nevertheless, Tsikhanouskaya remains confident that Belarusians are worthy of real freedom, and affirmed that the democratic forces continue working to restore genuine independence for the country. Meanwhile, the German Embassy in Minsk has extended its congratulations to Belarus and its citizens on the occasion of the Independence Day. “On this holiday, we express our support for the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. We wish the people of Belarus a life of freedom, peace, and prosperity,” the Embassy stated.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya congratulated President Donald Trump and the people of the United States on the Independence Day. “On 4 July, we celebrate the enduring power of freedom and the belief that people can shape their own destiny. Belarusians share the same dream — to live in a free and sovereign country. This is what we are fighting for,” she wrote on social media platform X.

The U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg has responded to Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s remarks about their meeting, stating that his words had been taken out of context. “This quote is taken out of context. In my conversation with Lukashenka we discussed a full and unconditional cease fire. Any limitation on Kyiv’s conduct was conditional on reciprocal action by Moscow. At no point did I make comments related to Ukraine’s prosecution of the war outside of a total ceasefire,” Kellogg wrote on social media platform X, attaching an article titled “Kellogg promised Lukashenka to ‘work’ on stopping Ukraine’s strikes on Russia”. On 1 July, speaking at a gathering marking the Independence Day, Lukashenka claimed that he had discussed a possible ceasefire in Ukraine with Kellogg. According to him, he conveyed Vladimir Putin’s position to Kellogg — that a ceasefire is on the table, provided Ukraine halts its strikes against Russia. Lukashenka alleged that Kellogg had supposedly promised to “work in this direction”.

Lithuanian outlet LRT has obtained information about certain details of the recent meeting between Aliaksandr Lukashenka and U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg, as well as plans for a further round of talks. According to the outlet’s sources, the United States made no promises to the Belarusian side in exchange for the release of political prisoners. Talks between Belarus and the United States were discussed in the Seimas of Lithuania. The discussion was initiated by Zygimantas Pavilionis, a member of the Seimas Committee on Foreign Affairs. “We must know whether negotiations are being conducted behind our backs and whether we ourselves have become part of the bargaining process,” Pavilionis stated. The Chair of the Seimas Committee, Remigijus Motuzas, confirmed that such a conversation did indeed take place with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys. According to him, no demands were made of Lithuania. “The release of political prisoners was a very delicate and complex operation, but no conditions were presented to Lithuania,” Motuzas said. LRT also reports, citing unofficial sources, that another round of negotiations between the U.S. and Belarus is expected. A Lithuanian citizen remains imprisoned in a Belarusian jail. Earlier this year, LRT sources revealed that U.S. Ambassador to Lithuania Kara McDonald asked a senior Lithuanian politician during a meeting how Vilnius would respond to a potential easing of sanctions against “Belaruskali”, but received a negative answer. Another source claimed that the issue had not been raised at all and said Lithuania is unaware of the content of the talks between Minsk and Washington. “That’s exactly the problem — we know nothing. I’m convinced the matter concerns potash fertilisers, but we have received no inquiries or requests from the United States,” the source said. Meanwhile, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze has denied claims that the United States allegedly asked Latvia to allow the transit of Belarusian fertilisers. “There have been no such requests from the United States,” she said in an interview with RFE/RL’s Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, commenting on media rumours suggesting that permission for potash transit through Latvia was supposedly among the promises made by Donald Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg to Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners. “We don’t know the source of this disinformation, but nothing of the sort has taken place. There is a whole range of sanctions in place against Belarusian fertilisers and potash… So everything remains as it is,” Braze stated.

On 3 July, the Court of Justice of the European Union issued a ruling in the case of “Hrodna Azot” (C-610/23), rejecting the company’s appeal — along with that of its subsidiary “Khimvolokno” — against the Council of the EU (T-117/22) concerning sanctions imposed on them. The companies had previously attempted to overturn the General Court’s decision, but without success. The Court ruled that their inclusion on the sanctions list was lawful and confirmed that the restrictive measures would remain in place. In the latest appeal proceedings, the Court dismissed the companies’ claims that they could not control how their transferred funds were used, or that such funds were not linked to financing the personal expenses of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The Court emphasised that to be considered as supporting the regime, it is not necessary for a company to be directly involved in human rights violations or repression. It is sufficient that the enterprise generates revenue for the state, thereby contributing to the preservation of the Lukashenka regime. The Court also stressed that the primary objective of the sanctions is to increase pressure on the Lukashenka regime to put an end to the grave and ongoing violations of human rights in Belarus, the suppression of democracy and the rule of law, and the repression of civil society and the democratic opposition.

The Coordination Council of Belarus, on the initiative of the “Team Latushka” faction and the “For Freedom” Movement, adopted an official statement supporting the establishment of an international Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine. The document was approved by 45 votes out of 76, with a quorum present. According to the Coordination Council’s press service, the decision is a logical continuation of the Council’s declaration “On Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s Responsibility for Crimes,” adopted earlier at the January hearings. The declaration asserts that Lukashenka bears direct responsibility for crimes against humanity, war crimes, as well as participation in the aggression against Ukraine. The leader of the “Team Latushka” faction and the “For Freedom” Movement, Pavel Latushka, also noted that representatives of Belarusian democratic forces secured the inclusion of provisions on the Belarusian regime’s guilt in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) resolutions dated 9 April and 24 June 2025. These documents also address the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.

Polish President Andrzej Duda visited the Polish-Belarusian border. He thanked the border guards, military personnel, and police officers for protecting the border, according to the office of the Polish president. Duda recalled the migration crisis and emphasised that guarding the Belarusian border is also protecting the borders of the entire European Union and the Schengen Area. “In fact, all this is happening not simply with the silent consent of the Belarusian regime authorities, but essentially at their initiative and under their protection. We have even identified Belarusian security service officers who ‘push’ groups of migrants towards the border strip to encourage illegal crossings. Not only of the Polish border, but also of the EU and Schengen Area borders,” Duda stated.

The Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, expressed support for democratic Belarus and described the Council of Europe’s Contact Group on Belarus as “a message of hope.” This was stated in a video published by the Council of Europe on social media. “Three years ago, the Council of Europe severed ties with the Lukashenka regime due to its support for Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine. But this did not mean abandoning the Belarusian people. We stand with all Belarusians, at home and in exile, who strive for democracy and a better future. We support all Belarusians seeking change: our commitment to a free Belarus is unwavering. In 2022, we established a contact group to work with Belarusian democratic forces and civil society,” Berset noted.

The names of four female political prisoners released by pardon on 9 May 2025 have become known. These are Lyudmila Likhacheuskaya, Natallia Antonava, Tatsiana Makeeva, and Karyna Malinouskaya. Lyudmila Likhacheuskaya was arrested on 29 March 2024 and sentenced to two years of imprisonment for “calling for sanctions” and “inciting hostility”. She was released about six months before the end of her term. Natallia Antonava, who is 65 years old, was initially sentenced to restriction of liberty for participating in protests, but in January 2024, she was detained during a raid by security forces on those who provided assistance to political prisoners. Antonava was tried for “slandering Lukashenka” and “inciting hostility” and sentenced to imprisonment. The exact verdict is not known. She spent approximately four months in colony. 67-year-old Tatsiana Makeeva spent exactly one year behind bars. She was accused of participating in protests, “insulting a government official”, “insulting a judge”, and “insulting Lukashenka” and sentenced to three years of imprisonment. Karyna Malinouskaya was convicted of participating in protests, as well as “inciting hostility” and “calling for sanctions”. It is unknown what sentence she received. According to human rights activists, she spent between six months and one year behind bars.

On 30 June, Belarusian human rights activists published a statement recognising seven people as political prisoners. It is emphasised that criminal prosecution for inciting other social hatred and discord is carried out selectively and in a discriminatory manner, solely to protect government institutions. Human rights activists called for the release of these political prisoners, as well as for a review of their sentences, the release of all political prisoners, and a review of politically motivated sentences. On the same day, human rights activists recognised four more people as political prisoners. The persecution and imprisonment of these individuals were politically motivated and related to the peaceful exercise of freedom of expression.

Every month, several dozens of political prisoners are released from prison, either after the expiration of their term or after the trial before being transferred to an open-type correctional institution. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, almost 1,600 people have been released from correctional institutions since 2020. At least 33 people were released in June: 20 served their sentences in full, and 13 more political prisoners were pardoned. Currently, there are 1,164 political prisoners in Belarus, and their number is increasing almost weekly.

On 2 July, Aliaksandr Lukashenka pardoned eight men and eight women who had previously been convicted on various charges, including “extremist” charges, on the eve of Belarus’ Independence Day. Among those pardoned were eight men and eight women, three of whom were over the age of 50. Two had chronic diseases, one was disabled. Nine of the convicts had minor children. The names of those pardoned have not yet been announced.

On 2 July, the Investigative Committee of Belarus launched a “special investigation” (in absentia) against Mikalai Katsalapau, co-founder and co-owner of Wargaming. He is accused of financing extremist activities and financing terrorist activities. In 2023, the KGB included him in the list of persons involved in “terrorist activities.” Propagandists claimed that he allegedly made “dozens of transfers” in cryptocurrency for “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to various “extremist” initiatives.

Mikita Samaryn, a political prisoner detained in March this year, is being tried on two charges – violence against an employee of the internal affairs bodies and malicious disobedience to the demands of the correctional institution administration. He faces up to seven years of imprisonment. The trial began in Hrodna on 2 July. The second hearing in the case is scheduled for 8 July. Human rights activists suggested that the accusation of malicious disobedience to the demands of the correctional institution administration appeared in the case because of Samaryn’s unwillingness to cooperate with the so-called “investigation.”

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre has recorded more than 1,700 politically motivated detentions since the beginning of 2025. Human rights activists emphasise that this is only part of the systematic and widespread repression for political reasons. In June, 67 cases of detentions and other types of politically motivated criminal and administrative prosecution were recorded. At the end of June 2025, 1,164 political prisoners were in prison in Belarus, 169 of whom were women. During this month, 29 people were recognised as political prisoners.

Ihar Karnei, a former journalist with the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty, who was released from prison on 21 June 2025 after a visit to Minsk by President Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg, described torture conditions in prisons in Belarus. Before he was released and taken to Lithuania, he was held in prisons across Belarus, most of the time in overcrowded cells or solitary confinement. At first, he was sent to the notorious Minsk pre-trial detention prison “Akrestsina”, where conditions were “just not human.” He was placed in a six-metre cell, where there were ten people. “You are just standing there like you are on a crowded bus. And it goes on like this for five, ten, twelve days, it all goes on endlessly,” Karnei recalled. The guards woke the prisoners up twice a night for roll call – at 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. It was “physically difficult to get up, because people are put together like a puzzle, and it is difficult to untangle them,” he said. The prisoners stood in line to go to the toilet in full view of their cellmates. Meals were rushed and tense: 1,500 people passed through the dining room in less than an hour. After the “Akrestsina” prison, Karnei was sent to prison in Shklou. Prisoners convicted of “political” crimes, as opposed to violent or financial ones, were often deprived of basic rights, such as visits or even communication with relatives. Later, Karnei was transferred to an enhanced security prison in the city of Mozyr. Because of the dilapidated infrastructure in this prison, the former place of detention in Shklou seemed to Karnei “Las Vegas” in comparison, although the atmosphere in Shklou was extremely harsh. The slightest acts of disobedience were punished by being placed in solitary confinement and subjected to stricter-than-usual restrictions.

Renowned teacher Natallia Dulina was also released on 21 June 2025. She spoke about the so-called “cage of shame”, which was used as a method of influencing prisoners. It was a metal cage that could hold up to 15 people. Convicts who “misbehaved” and needed “to cool down” or to feel punished were put there. According to Dulina, Maryja Kalesnikava is in the most difficult situation in the Homel colony. “Maybe when you look at her, you won’t say that her health is compromised, but it is,” she commented.  The situation is also particularly difficult for Irina Melcher and Lyubov Razanovich, who were involved in the Autukhovich case. “I was in the same squad with Razanovich, she has a disability, and they pay little attention to disabilities in the colony. And when I came out, she was back in a punishment cell,” Dulina reported. Commenting on her feelings after her release, Natallia said that she did not know what was happening until the political prisoners were brought to the border with Lithuania and handed over to American diplomats. “When I was taken out of the colony to the KGB detention centre, I was preparing for a new criminal case. And when I realised that I had been expelled from the country, I realised that this was the worst thing that could happen to me. In terms of desperation, this is even worse than what happened in 2022, when I was detained, because I was preparing myself for this. I understood that, most likely, I would be detained on criminal charges. But I had a choice, run away or stay. While here I felt that I had been deceived. I was supposed to be released in six months. I wanted to return to my family, stay in Belarus.”

On 2 July, a side event on the situation in Belarus was held in Geneva as part of the session of the UN Human Rights Council. It was organised by Lithuania and Latvia. Leanid Marozau, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Legal Adviser, attended the event. It was dedicated to the persecution of political prisoners, journalists, activists, and transnational repression. It was noted that there had been no improvements in the field of civil and political rights in Belarus. “We call on democratic countries and UN structures to support the work of independent experts and use all accountability mechanisms to stop violence and impunity. The repression is no longer limited to the territory of Belarus. It has become transnational, threatening the security of Belarusians in Europe and beyond,” Leanid Marozau said.

On 3 July 2025, Nils Muižnieks, UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Belarus, made a statement for the Independence Day in Belarus. He noted that this year, the Independence Day in Belarus holds special significance for human rights in the country, as several waves of pardons affecting more than 300 prisoners prosecuted on political grounds began exactly one year ago. “Prisoner releases in Belarus should continue for all those unjustly prosecuted, especially for those with health conditions. It is the only humane way to fulfil Belarus’s human rights obligations”, he said. The Special Rapporteur stressed that the overall number of political prisoners in the country remains high, with more than 1,100 persons in detention for exercising their civil and political rights. Many of these persons are suffering from deteriorating physical and mental health due to ill treatment and the poor conditions of their detention, which include insufficient food, inadequate health care and bans on receiving aid packages from the outside world. “A continuation and acceleration of prisoner releases would be an appropriate backdrop for the forthcoming review of Belarus’ human rights record,” he said, recalling that Belarus will be subject to Universal Periodic Review in November 2025. He also noted that Belarus has received criticism about arbitrary deprivations of liberty and harsh conditions of detention recently from a number of UN human rights bodies besides his mandate, including from the Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus, the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women, and the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

On 4 July, 37 OSCE member states issued a joint statement at an OSCE meeting calling on the regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka to immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners. The statement was read out by the representative of Germany on behalf of the “Friends of Democratic Belarus” Group. Among the signatory states were Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, Great Britain, and Germany. Albania, Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liechtenstein, Malta, Moldova, North Macedonia, and San Marino also joined the statement. “The Belarusian authorities continue to persecute those who express dissent, as well as independent media, ignoring their international obligations and OSCE principles,” the statement said. The signatories insisted on the need to stop the persecution of people for exercising their rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly; the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, especially those in need of medical care, the elderly, people with disabilities, and single parents; and to ensure humane treatment of all prisoners, including access to medical care and the ability to keep in touch with their families. In conclusion, the representatives of the countries stated: “We will continue to support the aspirations of the Belarusian people for a free, democratic, and independent Belarus.”

The shortlist of the annual Disturbance of the Peace Award for a Courageous Writer at Risk, organised by the Vaclav Havel Center, has been announced. Maksim Znak, a Belarusian lawyer, writer, and political activist, is among the four nominees. Maksim Znak was arrested in September 2020 and sentenced to ten years of imprisonment in a high-security colony on charges of “conspiracy to seize power” and “extremism.” While in custody, he continued to write, including poems and essays, some of which were published and translated abroad. “Znak’s commitment to justice, legal reform, and nonviolent resistance has made him a symbol of intellectual courage in the face of state repression,” the award’s website says. Maksim Znak was already nominated for the award last year. In 2021, the award was given to the Belarusian poet Dzmitri Strotsau. The Disturbance of the Peace Award is given to authors of outstanding works of fiction, literary journalism, biographies, memoirs, drama, or poetry who show courage in dissent and face unfair persecution for defending democracy and human rights.

On 30 June, the state TV channel ONT aired a documentary about the so-called special operation “Harpoon”, which allegedly lasted around two years and led to the arrest of whistleblower activist Pavel Bialiutsin. According to the filmmakers, the KGB deliberately allowed its website to be hacked so that a database of informants could be downloaded. “In the end, the group’s organiser, who was based abroad and had been preparing strike drones to literally blow up Belarusian strategic facilities, was successfully extracted,” claimed the propagandists. Pro-regime Telegram channels widely shared posts urging viewers to watch the film. Interestingly, the administrator of the Minsk Metro’s Telegram channel initially copy-pasted an internal directive instructing them to post the news about the film. The post was quickly deleted, but it remains accessible via web archives. After watching the film, propagandist Ryhor Azaronak published an alarmist article declaring that Belarusians are already at war, and called on everyone to “understand this and become a fortress together”: “Shoot, dear government. I bow before you, great Committee. We are all serfs of our own state. Only it can protect us from horror, darkness, blood, endless grief, from life being split once again into ‘before’ and ‘after’. The state is our sacred object. We must pray for it. Every state institution is a guardian angel standing in the way of hordes, legions of demons, fiends, and twisted infernal entities. O Fatherland, take me into your fortress. Write me into your census. Take me into your oprichnina [the notorious organisation of Oprichniki, the first political police in the history of Russia, established by tsar Ivan the Terrible in the 16^th century – ed.]. Show me my firing slit. I will shoot at your enemies. And may freedom be damned.”

On 1 July, during a graduation address to military academy alumni, Aliaksandr Lukashenka spoke about what he described as a “permanent hybrid war” being waged against Belarus for “several decades”, and warned that he had a “tough response” ready for “any aggressive provocations”. Later that day, at a formal ceremony marking the so-called Independence Day, Lukashenka proclaimed that the Yalta system had been replaced by a “Brussels-Washington escapade”. “No one wants to remember how the march to the East ended — as it is now fashionable to say — by Hitler’s European Union. That is why Poland and the Baltic states are allowing themselves to become the next military testing grounds, after Ukraine. The West has no interest in our neighbours in any other role. Do you think Germany is building up its military to fight on its own soil? Of course not. Look at what’s happening in Ukraine — it’s a proxy war. And just like that, they want to fight us too — including in Ukraine. The Slavic peoples have always been a thorn in their side!” Speaking as the person who allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory in 2022, Lukashenka once again tried to justify hosting Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as a necessary security measure. “I don’t want anyone to attack you or my country again (as president and commander-in-chief, that’s my responsibility). I told the Americans directly: nuclear weapons are quietly, calmly stored here under proper protection, as required internationally — but God help you if you set foot on our land without permission. The response will be immediate, lightning-fast, and with the very weapon you fear most. Do you understand?” According to him, the Americans replied that they “understood”. He announced that the missile facility “Oreshnik” would be installed in Belarus by the end of the year, thanking Russia once again and insisting the deployment was necessary to prevent internal unrest. He described his meeting with Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg as “a serious conversation”, not a “game of give-away”. Lukashenka mocked Trump’s “confused, disjointed” comments on attacking Iran, calling them “simply laughable”, and claimed to have told the Americans this openly. In his view, Trump failed as a peacemaker: “He declares his desire to end the war in Ukraine — and then immediately carries out an absolutely illegal strike on Iran.” He also claimed both Trump and European politicians were simply “playing roles” in the Russia-Ukraine war: “Once again, it’s a script. A performance. I see it all.” He advised the United States to drop its “pre-election frenzy” and “start focusing on concrete matters”. According to Lukashenka, Putin has made it clear that the West must instruct Zelenskyy to stop launching attacks on Russian territory — “Then we all will agree.” Lukashenka claimed he relayed this position to the Americans, and that Kellogg had supposedly promised to “work in that direction”.

It is worth noting that the next day, Kellogg publicly stated that Lukashenka had taken his comments out of context. Their conversation had concerned a complete and unconditional ceasefire, with any limits on Kyiv’s actions only envisaged if matched by reciprocal steps from Moscow. Lukashenka also said that Kellogg brought up the issue of so-called “political prisoners”, prompting him to threaten to end the conversation altogether — especially in light of “what you [Americans] did in the Middle East — destroying, bombing, killing people”. He took aim at Siarhei Tsikhanouski without naming him directly, emphasising that he, Lukashenka, not the Americans, is in charge of his country: “[Tsikhanouski] shouts: ‘If Trump says even one word, he’ll run to release him!’ The moment Trump dares say even one word… any talks with the Americans will stop.” Lukashenka insisted he had no intention of letting political prisoners “die” in jail, because blame would fall on him: “So we treat them normally. But prison is not a resort. Abuse is unacceptable. They are bad people, beasts, and criminals. But I still consider them human.” At the same time, he called them “bandits” who might “blow up the country” because they are “being paid”. He accused political opponent Pavel Latushka of “plotting to burn Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and other activists alive” by gathering them all at the “united HQ” in central Minsk in 2020 — allegedly to eliminate rivals and become the sole leader of “this stinking opposition”. According to Lukashenka, this plot was thwarted by “Lukashenka the dictator” and his special services. No evidence was provided to support the claim.

In a telling follow-up, Belarusian student Yauhen Kazantsau threw a rubbish bin at Latushka during a lecture marking the 35^th anniversary of the East European Institute at the University of Warsaw, shouting accusations echoing Lukashenka’s insinuations. Polish authorities now intend to deport Kazantsau to Belarus. In response, pro-regime MP Aleh Haidukevich offered returnees a cynical piece of advice: “That’s what you should do. Take an empty plastic bucket — so no one gets hurt — throw it at them [opposition politicians abroad], and come back home. That act will be taken into account.”

Lukashenka’s long speech — filled with shocking admissions, baseless allegations, and unverifiable claims — was dissected into quotes by Belarusian propagandists. In a column for the state newspaper Mіnskaja Prauda on 2 July, Azaronak compared the Palace of the Republic hall, where the event was held, to a “temple” and said that Lukashenka spoke “from the pulpit”. Azaronak stressed that Trump’s envoy “doesn’t visit puppets” — but then launched into a tirade against the U.S.: “Batska decoded the villainous script. He said it plainly about the meeting with the Americans — we do not believe you. Look — the so-called peacemaker arrives. And then he leaves Europe. He says he wants to end the war in Ukraine. But the intelligence continues flowing to the Kyiv regime. Without it, the Banderite military machine would have collapsed long ago.” Fellow propagandist and pro-government political analyst Andrei Lazutkin echoed him: “It is not the Americans, through Kellogg, telling Batska what to do — it  is the other way around. In the talks, he even said: if you continue your current policy, you will lose the congressional elections in a year and a half — and then the presidential ones too.”

At a wreath-laying ceremony on 3 July, Lukashenka once again tried to scare the Belarusians: “You see what is happening around us. The West has once again decided to burn all its debts and problems in a global fire — and to burn several million people alive at the same time.” He called on “all people of goodwill to unite” and stop the “madmen” to prevent a “world fire”. Meanwhile, pro-regime propagandists used the official Independence Day greetings to further the personality cult around Lukashenka. Aliaksandr Shpakouski called him the “national leader” and the “demiurge of modern Belarus” with an “iron will”. His colleague Aliaksei Dzermant described Lukashenka as “the continuer of Lenin-Stalin state-building”, implementing the “correct path” — “in union with Russia, together with China”.

On 4 July, Aliaksandr Lukashenka congratulated Donald Trump on U.S. Independence Day. Notably, in previous years he had addressed his greetings to the American people, omitting President Biden’s name. Lukashenka recalled that during Trump’s first term, Minsk and Washington had “embarked on a path of normalising relations”, but that Belarus-U.S. cooperation later “deviated from that positive course”. In his view, such a state of affairs does not serve the “national interests of our countries or our peoples”, and “it is time to change it”.

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Best regards,
iSANS team