Belarus Review by iSANS — July 6, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, 36 unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarusian airspace between June 29 and July 5, 2026, at least two of which were presumably Ukrainian. Belarusian Armed Forces duty aviation units were deployed almost daily to intercept them. No confirmed reports of drones being destroyed, crashing, or debris being found were received during the week.

On June 30, Commander of the Pakistan Air Force Zakhir Akhmed Babar Sidkhu arrived in Belarus on a working visit. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported this on June 30. Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Pavel Muraveika and Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich held meetings with the Pakistani delegation. The sides discussed current issues related to the further development of bilateral military cooperation. On July 1, the Pakistani military commander was also received by State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandar Valfovich. According to the BELTA news agency, the sides discussed areas of bilateral cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres, while Valfovich confirmed his readiness to facilitate the development of interagency relations between the defence ministries of the two countries. Following the talks, the sides declared their readiness to develop military-technical cooperation.

On June 30, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported the completion of a cycle of field seminars for doctors from civilian healthcare institutions on the treatment of gunshot wounds. The final session was held at Brest Central City Hospital. The cycle began in February 2026 by decision of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Health and covered 18 cities, including Babruisk, Mahiliou, Barysau, Maladzechna, Minsk, and Salihorsk. In total, around 650 practicing specialists took part in the seminars. The practice of holding such seminars began in 2022.

On June 30, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the relay stations used to support Russian drone flights from Belarusian territory had not been dismantled. According to him, one of the sites was switched on again on June 29. Syrskyi did not specify whether Ukraine planned to physically disable the equipment but expressed confidence that the relay stations would no longer be activated.

Residents of the village of Parechcha in Pinsk District heard explosion-like sounds several times on June 30 and July 1, they told Zerkalo. According to unconfirmed information, one of the relay stations used to control Russian drones may have been located in the area. No official reports of an attack or damage to the facility have been issued.

On July 1, the State Authority for Military Industry reported the delivery to signal troops of another R-414MBRP Sosna radio-relay station, produced by Agat Electromechanical Plant JSC. The station has been in serial production since 2020 and is used to deploy cable and radio-relay communication lines, radio access, and DMR-standard communications as part of field support nodes. The system is based on the MAZ-6317 chassis; its deployment and dismantling time does not exceed 30 minutes, and its design allows equipment upgrades without major structural changes.

A ceremony for the handover of new engineering equipment to formations and military units of the Belarusian Armed Forces was held at the 1371st Engineering Base. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported this on July 1. Several dozen DEM-310 backhoe loaders produced by the Belarusian company Amkodor were sent to the troops. They will help perform engineering support tasks in difficult terrain, equip command posts and personnel accommodation areas, and carry out earthworks quickly. Other engineering equipment, including generators, was also handed over.

On July 4, Andrii Demchenko, a representative of Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, reported a decrease in Russian drone activity along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the same time, he stressed that he could not confirm the physical dismantling of the relay stations installed in Belarus. According to him, the equipment may only have been temporarily switched off, meaning Belarus retains the ability to put it back into operation, which could lead to the resumption of Russian drone flights along the border.

On 5 July, an interparliamentary group “For a Democratic Belarus” was officially launched on the sidelines of the session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. The initiative brought together 35 parliamentarians from 17 countries, including Sweden, Ukraine, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Italy, Moldova, Great Britain, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Denmark. The interparliamentary group will coordinate support for democratic forces of Belarus and keep the Belarusian issue at the centre of the organisation’s attention. In her remarks, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya thanked the parliamentarians for their support of Belarus and noted that such groups already operate in 22 national parliaments. She stated that the issue of a free Belarus is a matter of European security, and called for preventing normalisation of relations with the Lukashenka regime without the release of political prisoners and systemic democratic changes.

Against the backdrop of Belarus’s Independence Day on 3 July and the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, Minsk and Washington exchanged congratulatory messages. Donald Trump congratulated the Belarusian people on the Republic Day on 3 July, wished them a peaceful and prosperous year, and expressed hope for a future meeting with Lukashenka. In response, Lukashenka sent congratulations to Trump, emphasizing U.S. achievements and declaring his readiness to work toward normalizing relations. At the same time, the regime announced the pardon of 28 people convicted in politically motivated cases as having committed “extremist crimes”. Overall, the signals point to the preservation of the Belarus–U.S. diplomatic dialogue channel, including on the humanitarian track.

In Lukashenka’s 2026 Independence Day message, compared with 2025, the tone changed: the holiday shifted from the language of creation to the language of protection. The image of a country that must be preserved came to the fore. According to Lukashenka, everyone should feel “responsibility before the memory of their ancestors for the development and destiny of the Fatherland”. Instead of a “prosperous” country, the final objective becomes a “common home” that must be made “comfortable and safe” under the “peaceful sky of independent Belarus”. By comparison, the 2025 message relied on more optimistic language: “labour valour”, “faith in a happy future”, movement “toward success”, and the task of making Belarus “well-off and prosperous”.

After talks with Vladimir Putin in Valdai, Lukashenka travelled to China, where on 29 June he held a working meeting with Xi Jinping and on 30 June visited Peking University. During the open part of the meeting, Beijing confirmed the high level of relations, calling Belarus and China “iron friends” and describing bilateral ties as being at a “historical peak”. The practical agenda included the Great Stone Industrial Park, the 2026–2027 years of industrial cooperation, the use of Chinese technologies in the Belarusian economy, and regular exchanges of views on the international agenda. At Peking University, Lukashenka attended the graduation ceremony of his younger son Nikolai, who completed a biotechnology programme together with a group of Belarusian students. According to Lukashenka, the joint educational programme in biotechnology should lead not to academic exchange as such, but to the creation of pharmaceutical production facilities in Belarus, including medicines for treating oncological diseases. He separately stressed that specialists trained in China should work in Belarus, despite interest in them from Chinese and Russian companies.

Lukashenka’s visit to Southeast Asia included Indonesia and Myanmar and focused on practical economic cooperation with states outside the Western track. On 1–2 July in Jakarta, he met members of the Indonesian government and President Prabowo Subianto; following the talks, the sides signed a roadmap for cooperation for 2026–2030. The main areas named were agriculture, food security, supplies of fertilizers, agricultural and heavy-duty machinery, industrial cooperation, localization of production, personnel training, pharmaceuticals, and medical and veterinary products. The presence in the Belarusian delegation of State Military-Industrial Committee head Dzmitry Pantus indicates interest in arms cooperation as well. Lukashenka also noted decisions to open an Indonesian embassy in Minsk, introduce visa-free travel for Belarusians, and establish direct air service; he called Indonesia one of Belarus’s key partners in Southeast Asia. From Jakarta, he travelled to Myanmar, where on 2 July he held talks with the leader of Myanmar’s military junta Min Aung Hlaing. There, the sides discussed industry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, humanitarian cooperation, and a joint action plan for 2026–2028.

The situation on the Belarus–Lithuania track is developing along familiar lines. On 3 July, Lithuania’s new prime minister, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, kept Kęstutis Budrys as foreign minister, explaining the decision by the need to “maintain continuity” in foreign policy. In practice, this also means continuity in the main Belarus policy line, consisting of sanctions, support for democratic forces, and containment of Minsk. On the previous day, 2 July, Lithuanian politicians agreed to begin reviewing the constitutional ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons so that Lithuania would not appear to be a “weak link” in NATO nuclear deterrence. On 30 June, Lithuania’s Seimas, dismantling the previous architecture of neighbourhood relations, denounced the agreement with Belarus on local border traffic, signed back in 2010 but never brought into force.

At the same time, the Latvian section remains the tensest element of the border crisis. Between 20 June and 3 July, 1,066 attempts to illegally cross the border were recorded there (according to Valsts robežsardze), while on the Polish track over the same period there were only five attempts (according to Straż Graniczna). Latvian border guards additionally report aggressive behaviour by migrants, stones and pieces of wood thrown at officers, increased activity by transporters, and the need for additional army support. This year, more than 7,000 crossing attempts have already been prevented on the Latvian border, and 82 transporters and organisers have been detained.

In June, Belarusian petrol exports to Russia reached a record high. According to the Centre for Price Indices, in the period of 1–25 June, supplies amounted to 141,000 tonnes – 2.4 times more than in the whole of May and 15% above the previous record set in November 2025. At the same time, transit of Belarusian petrol to third countries fell from 166,000 tonnes in May to 24,000 tonnes in June. This comes amid growing information pressure from Kyiv, including threats to strike targets in Belarus.

On 29 June, Belarus convened a UN Security Council meeting for the first time following reports of a drone strike on a Belarusian bus in Russia’s Bryansk region and against the backdrop of Kyiv’s statements about possible strikes on targets in Belarus. For Minsk, the main result of the meeting was that it elevated to the international level the question of the risk that the Russia–Ukraine war could spread to third states. At the same time, it failed to establish Ukraine’s responsibility for the incident either among Western states or among countries of the Global South.

Summary of the Security Council meeting.

• The most significant element was the briefing by UN Assistant Secretary-General Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee. It was not pro-Russian in character: Russian aggression and attacks on Ukraine were identified directly. At the same time, Belarus was included among the countries affected by drone incidents, alongside Moldova, the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland. A warning was also voiced: “We must not allow the risk of a broader regional conflict in Europe.” The role of third countries, including Belarus and the UAE, in prisoner-of-war exchanges was also noted separately.
• Belarus and Russia presented similar accounts of the incident but pursued different political interests. Moscow used the bus incident primarily to justify continued strikes against Ukraine. During the meeting, Russia’s representative stated directly that “we will continue to strike Ukraine’s military facilities”. Belarus, by contrast, emphasized the risk of the country being drawn into the war, stated that it was not participating in the conflict, recalled confidential channels with Kyiv, and called for avoiding “further testing the patience of the Belarusian side”. Ukraine rejected the accusations and responsibility, calling the reports of the attack a “disinformation operation”. Ukraine described Belarus as a “direct accomplice” to the aggression, while also saying that it “does not want to provoke Belarus or harm Belarusian citizens”.
• In their statements, EU countries unanimously demanded an independent investigation, signalling distrust of the official reports from Belarus and Russia. France delivered the most balanced statement, acknowledging the seriousness of the incident and saying that “the course of events must be independently established”. At the same time, France recalled that by allowing the Russian army to invade Ukraine from its territory in 2022, Belarus, in France’s assessment, became “complicit in a serious violation of international law”. France was also the only country to raise the issue of political prisoners, urging Minsk to “continue and accelerate” their release and to stop politically motivated sentences. Latvia questioned the purpose of the meeting and said that Belarus “provides its territory and infrastructure” for Russia’s war. Denmark and the United Kingdom effectively ignored the Belarusian signal, reducing the discussion to Russia’s responsibility: “none of this would be happening” if Russia had not launched the invasion.
• In a short statement, the United States warned against rhetoric capable of “intensifying and expanding the war”. China also separately highlighted the risk of the war spreading externally: “War has serious spillover effects and often threatens the safety of people in other countries of the region.”
• Countries of the Global South noted the risk of the Russia–Ukraine conflict spreading to third states and stressed the universal nature of international humanitarian law and the inadmissibility of strikes against non-combatants. At the same time, they refrained from accusing Ukraine. Liberia, in particular, stated that international responsibility must be based on independent verification and credible evidence, and warned: “We must uphold the inviolable boundaries of international law before the permeable boundaries of war engulf neighbouring states as well.”

Shortly afterward, on 2 July, the Belarusian passenger bus Minsk–Homiel–Anapa came under drone attack in Russia’s Bryansk region. There were 19 passengers on board; two drivers and one passenger were injured. Russia’s Investigative Committee said the strike had been carried out by Ukrainian forces and opened a criminal case on “terrorism”. The incident caused a brief information spike in Russian and regime media. However, Minsk soon quickly lowered the temperature. Security Council State Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich said that the bus “was not the target” and that its appearance in the strike zone was “pure coincidence”, while also urging Belarusians to refrain from travelling to Russia’s border regions. Ukraine rejected the Russian accusations, calling reports of a Ukrainian drone strike a provocation by Russian propaganda. Overall, despite the initial resonance, the incident was quickly played down.

On 29 June, the Ministry of Information updated its list of “extremist materials”. Facebook accounts of a number of activists and journalists were added to it. In particular, accounts of Aliaksandra Herasimenia, Katsyaryna Yerusalimskaya, Uladzimir Zhyhar, Anton Matolka, Pavel Marynich were included in it.

On 30 June, Belarusian human rights defenders recognised eight more people as political prisoners. As of 30 June, the number of political prisoners reached 863, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported.

On 1 July, 32 people were pardoned, 28 of whom were convicted of “extremist crimes” and recognised as political prisoners by Belarusian human rights defenders. The pardon was apparently announced in connection with Belarus’s Independence Day. The corresponding decree was signed by Aliaksandr Lukashenka. There were 20 women and 12 men among those pardoned. “The decision was made based on the principle of humanism towards the convicts and their families. All of them applied for clemency, admitting their guilt and repenting”, the press service of Lukashenka reported. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented on the pardon. “The news of the release of 28 political prisoners is a relief for their families, for those who were separated from their loved ones and lived in hope of meeting them. At the same time, we must not forget that there are still hundreds of political prisoners in Belarusian prisons, and all of them must be released. We are waiting for everyone to come home,” she said.

As Franak Viachorka, a senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, explained in a comment to the BBC Russian Service, all those pardoned are currently in Belarus — in his view, the authorities are deliberately withholding information about the identities of those released. “We are seeing two different approaches to releasing people. One is when people are released as a result of US negotiations; in such cases, the more prominent figures and those considered more dangerous to the regime are expelled from the country,” explains Vyachorka. “The second track involves pardons granted on specific dates, where people remain in Belarus — very often these individuals have only a short time left to serve in prison; they are released, sign non-disclosure or travel restriction agreements, and their freedom is significantly restricted. And I think the last group consists of those who will remain in Belarus.”

Security forces detained a citizen of Ukraine, Bogdan Gerish, and have been holding him in custody for two months. This was reported by “Viasna” Human Rights Centre with reference to his relatives. According to them, Gerish works and lives in Rome. He was traveling on a regular bus from Latvia to Poland through the territory of Belarus. On 6 May, during border control, security forces detained him, seized his phone and documents, including a valid Italian residence permit. On 8 May, he called his relatives from the detention centre and said that he had been arrested for 15 days – until May 22. After that, he did not get in touch. His relatives managed to find out that he had been placed in the Oktiabrski temporary detention centre in Hrodna, and his lawyer could not obtain permission to visit him.

Aliaksandr Yeliseyeu, a civic activist from Kalinkavichi, a former member of the Objedinennaya Grazhdanskaya Party (United Civil Party), was sentenced to ten years of imprisonment. The trial was held behind closed doors. Yeliseyeu was found guilty of high treason and insulting Lukashenka. The essence of the charges remains unknown. Until the verdict comes into force, Yeliseyeu continues to be held in the detention cells of prison No. 4 in Mahileu. The exact date of his detention is unknown. It became known in November 2025. On 14 November 2025, he was recognised as a political prisoner. In 2020 and later, the authorities repeatedly detained Yeliseyeu and imposed lengthy administrative arrests on him.

The Polish Internal Security Agency (ABW) detained a Belarusian citizen Aliaksei B. and a Polish citizen Rafal G. who were filming Belarusians participating in protest actions in Warsaw. They were charged with acting in the interests of foreign intelligence in 2024-2025 in Warsaw and other cities. “Since at least last fall, they have been visiting various events of the Belarusian diaspora in Warsaw, including protest actions and festivals. On the instructions of the Belarusian security services, they photographed the participants, shot videos and sent them across the eastern border to be used by Lukashenka’s services. The goal was not only to collect information, but also to pressure and intimidate emigrant communities and strengthen propaganda narratives of states hostile to Poland,” the Agency concluded. According to the court’s decision, a 19-year-old Belarusian who legally resided in the country and worked in Warsaw as a waiter will spend the next three months in custody. The Polish citizen, as reported, remains at large, under police supervision. He is prohibited from leaving the country, and his passport has been seized. Their detention was part of the investigation, in which two citizens of Ukraine and three citizens of Belarus had been already detained in November 2025. ABW does not exclude new arrests. Hiring individuals abroad for filming public events organised by the Belarusian diaspora in various countries is a standard tool of transnational repression by the Lukashenka regime. Obtained video and photos are later used by the regime’s law enforcement bodies for initiating criminal cases and trying the exiles in absentia as well as for putting pressure on their families in Belarus.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office reported an increase in cases where intruders pose as employees or representatives of the Office in electronic communications with exiled Belarusians. Scammers try to gain trust of their interlocutors or obtain their personal information. The Office urged people not to trust messages simply because the sender claimed to be an Office employee, and recommended to always check contact information using the official list on the Office website tsikhanouskaya.org and inform the Office if a fake account is detected as well as submit a request to delete the account in the corresponding messenger.

The Hrodna apartment of journalist Uladzimir Khilmanovich was auctioned off on the second attempt. Nine people participated in the auction. The initial price of the lot was 100,800 rubles. The winner offered 136,000 rubles. Khilmanovich’s cottage was previously auctioned off. Uladzimir Khilmanovich was sentenced in absentia to five years of imprisonment under charges of facilitating “extremist” activities and participating in an “extremist” formation. In addition to the prison term, he was sentenced to a fine of 1,000 basic units (approximately 12,700 Euro). To pay it, the court decided to auction off the journalist’s real estate.

A passenger car belonging to political prisoner Arkadz Koichurenka was put up for auction in Hrodna. The vehicle is under arrest. The initial value of the lot was estimated at 21,200 rubles. The auction is scheduled to take place on 7 July. Koichurenka was detained on 1 October 2024 after he returned to Belarus from abroad to replace his passport. He was charged with inciting hostility, publicly calling for the seizure of power, insulting a government official and insulting Lukashenka. In October 2025, he was sentenced to five years of imprisonment in a high-security colony. In addition, he was fined 500 basic units (approximately 6,800 Euro) and ordered to pay 5,000 rubles (approximately 1,500 Euro) as compensation for “moral damages” to the victim Andrei Shvets. Human rights defenders recognised Koichurenka as a political prisoner.

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Best regards, iSANS team