Belarus Review by iSANS — July 13, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, 26 Russian drones were detected in Belarusian airspace between 6 and 12 July 2026. Belarusian Air Force aircraft on alert duty were scrambled to intercept them. According to Ukrainian media, on 12 July, a Belarusian Air Force Mi-24 helicopter shot down a Russian Gerbera strike drone that was flying towards Ukraine.

On 6 July, during a ceremony honouring graduates of higher military educational institutions and senior officers, Lukashenka stated that Belarusians were a peaceful people who did not want war but would not bow before an enemy. According to his press service, he assured officers that no one would be sent “into this slaughter” (the war in Ukraine), as Belarus did not need war, while blaming an international “party of war” for prolonging the conflict. He also confirmed the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system and Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, describing them as a serious strategic deterrent capable of cooling “the hottest heads”.

From 7 to 31 July, territorial defence training is being conducted in the Malaryta and Drahichyn districts of the Brest Region, both bordering Ukraine. According to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, the exercise includes mobilising territorial reservists, restoring command skills, preparing personnel for wartime tasks and forming people’s militia units. Particular attention is being paid to territorial defence under martial law, including protection of personnel and infrastructure against drones.

On 8 July, the 11th Mechanised Brigade received the first battalion of modernised T-72BM2 tanks. According to the State Authority for Military Industry, the upgrade was carried out by the 140th Repair Plant, which developed the design documentation and established serial production. Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin stated that tanks remained capable of ensuring success on the battlefield despite changes in modern warfare, while State Authority for Military Industry Chairman Dzmitry Pantus said that this was only the first battalion that had received these modernised tanks and that the modernisation programme would also cover armoured personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles and other armoured platforms. However, despite improvements to fire-control systems, the upgraded tanks were not equipped with standard passive anti-drone protection or electronic warfare systems, raising questions about their suitability for contemporary battlefield conditions.

Major General Uladzimir Bely was appointed Deputy Defence Minister on 8 July, replacing Major General Alyaksandr Naumenka, who retired after reaching the statutory age limit for military service. Previously head of the Main Combat Training Directorate, Bely now assumes responsibility for military education, combat training and personnel policy. The appointment follows Lukashenka’s May meeting with Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin, during which he instructed the ministry to review its senior leadership.

A training event for commanders of the Special Operations Forces and their deputies was held at the 38th Air Assault Brigade in Brest. According to the Defence Ministry, participants practised organising military convoys, mobility under combat conditions, responses to threats during movement, breaching engineering obstacles and the use of vehicle-integrated electronic warfare systems against drones.

On 9 July, Lukashenka approved a draft agreement with India on the mutual protection of classified information. The State Security Committee (KGB) was authorised to conduct the negotiations and sign the agreement (Decree No. 229 of 9 July 2026).

On 9 July, Russia hosted the second round of General Staff planning talks on the CSTO exercises Interaction-2026, Search-2026 and Echelon-2026. Representatives of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, the CSTO Joint Staff and the Secretariat agreed on the exercise concepts, command arrangements, participating contingents and logistical support. The scenarios were synchronised with Russia’s strategic command-and-staff exercise Tsentr-2026, and participants also conducted reconnaissance of the Chebarkul training ground in Russia’s Chelyabinsk Region, where the exercises are scheduled at for September–October.

On 10 July, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and representatives of the United Transitional Cabinet, her Office, the Coordination Council, BELPOL and iSANS held a joint security meeting. They discussed possible regional escalation, the risk of Belarusian territory and the Lukashenka regime being drawn into a new Russian scenario, support for Belarusian volunteers and practical cooperation with Ukraine. Participants agreed to establish a permanent security working group and strengthen coordination among democratic forces.

On 8–9 July, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev paid an official visit to Belarus, during which the two countries elevated their relations to a strategic partnership. Lukashenka and Mirziyoyev signed a corresponding declaration and a package of agreements covering industry, agriculture, healthcare, education, culture and interregional cooperation. The sides set a target of increasing bilateral trade, which is approaching USD 1 billion, to USD 2 billion within five years, with an emphasis on moving from direct supplies to joint production. Priority areas include assembling Belarusian machinery in Uzbekistan, textile cooperation, the production of medicines and medical equipment, livestock farming and the food industry. A separate plan envisages increasing bilateral trade in agricultural products to USD 1 billion by 2030. The governments also signed an agreement on the employment of Uzbek citizens in Belarus. The expected increase in the number of Uzbek workers may reinforce anti-migration tensions already visible in Belarusian society. The visit was preceded by the third Belarus–Uzbekistan Forum of Regions, attended by delegations from all 14 Uzbek regions. Road maps and cooperation agreements were signed, and an Uzbekistan Trade House opened in Minsk. The agreements confirm Uzbekistan’s growing importance as one of Minsk’s main economic partners in Central Asia.

On 11 July, Lukashenka used the Kupalle festival in Alexandria to emphasise the regime’s national elements. He described traditional rituals, songs and crafts as the foundation of the Belarusian cultural code and presented the preservation of traditions as a means of understanding Belarusians as “a people and a nation”. Yanka Kupala was portrayed as a symbol of historical continuity, while the rural family, agricultural labour and village life were presented as the foundation of the social order. At the same time, the national narrative was combined with a broader “Slavic” one: Lukashenka welcomed delegations from Russia, expressed hope that more Ukrainians would attend the festival in the future and stated that “Slavic states cannot exist without the countryside”. He also linked Belarusian traditions with the idea of peace, calling for the preservation of the world’s “fragile” peace and family well-being.

On 6 July, Lukashenka received a report from his son Viktar, President of the National Olympic Committee. The discussion covered the situation in Belarusian sport, the work of the leadership “troika” comprising Viktar Lukashenka, Deputy Prime Minister Natallia Piatkevich and Sports Minister Siarhei Kavaleuchanka, as well as international activities. Lukashenka also requested an update on economic projects in Oman, the UAE and parts of Africa assigned to Viktar Lukashenka. Earlier, in April, he had visited several Gulf states on working visits.

On 9 July, Lukashenka approved a draft protocol simplifying the procedures for Belarusian and Russian citizens to obtain temporary and permanent residence permits in each other’s countries. The proposal reduces the processing time for permanent residence applications from three to two months and expands the list of Belarusian biometric documents accepted for travel and residence in Russia (Decree No. 228 of 9 July 2026).

Personnel decisions announced on 8 July continued the adjustment of the regional power vertical and the security bloc. Yury Valevaty was appointed Presidential Inspector for Homiel Region and tasked by Lukashenka with making the region “more like Hrodna Region”. Nadzeya Katkavets, a long-time Lukashenka associate, became Presidential Inspector for Mahiliou Region. Dzmitry Reutski, who comes from the KGB system, was appointed Presidential Inspector for Minsk.

Heightened vigilance is being observed along Belarus’s borders with NATO member states. On 7 July, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that Warsaw possessed credible information indicating that Russia was preparing a new operation. The context suggested that this primarily referred to sabotage, cyberattacks, reconnaissance of critical infrastructure and possible false-flag activities; no information was provided regarding troop concentrations, a specific target or a timetable. Lithuanian security sources likewise stated that they had no information about a specific date, operational plan or designated organiser of any such operation and observed no concentration of forces. Against this backdrop, on 7 July, the Lithuanian Seimas began considering constitutional amendments to remove the ban on hosting nuclear weapons. On 8 July, NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission transitioned to an air defence mission, authorising allied aircraft to engage and destroy airborne threats.

Tensions between the Lukashenka regime and neighbouring states also remain elevated. Following the formation of Lithuania’s new government, Vilnius stated that it would not soften its policy towards Minsk. On 7 July, the presidential administration clarified that changes in the wording of the government programme reflected only more cautious rhetoric considering the ongoing US–Belarus dialogue. On 9 July, Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Lithuania would seek additional sanctions against Belarus.

The Latvian border remains the main direction of migration pressure. Latvian State Border Guard Chief Guntis Pujāts stated that in 2026, Latvia had become the “number one target” of the hybrid operation organised by the Lukashenka regime. Since the beginning of the year, Latvian border guards have prevented around 7,600 illegal crossings, including 848 attempts between 1 and 8 July (according to the Valsts robežsardze). Activity also increased on the Polish border, where 50 crossing attempts were recorded between 1 and 12 July, including 37 during the weekend of 10–12 July (according to the Straż Graniczna). At the same time, the Lukashenka regime propaganda continued portraying Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine as sources of smuggling and hybrid threats. State television, in particular, accused the Polish and Ukrainian security services, without providing evidence, of organising drug trafficking using weather balloons launched from Lithuania.

Within the regime’s information space, the main narrative remains the prospect of a political rift between Poland and Ukraine over the historical dispute surrounding the OUN and the UPA. State-controlled media present the issue not as an isolated disagreement but as a factor capable of undermining bilateral cooperation, restricting Ukrainian transit through Poland and blocking Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership. On 11 July, state television described the Warsaw–Kyiv alliance as “false” and “loudly and irreversibly falling apart at the seams”, arguing that Poland regarded the glorification of the UPA as a non-negotiable issue, while the Ukrainian authorities were unwilling to compromise. In contrast, Belarus’s own historical disputes with Ukraine are almost entirely absent from this narrative.

On 11 July, Belarusian Ambassador to Israel Yury Yarashevich met with Patriarch Theophilos III of Jerusalem. The sides discussed the situation in the Middle East, Belarus and the international environment surrounding it. The meeting was another indication of the regime’s use of religious diplomacy as an element of its foreign policy.

The authorities continue to reorient the Hi-Tech Park towards financial technologies and technological sovereignty. Several Belarusian and foreign investors have expressed interest in establishing crypto banks after the relevant decree enters into force on 18 July. The HTP currently has 26 crypto residents serving around 250,000 Belarusian clients with assets of approximately BYN 500 million. The sector’s turnover is expected to increase by 1.5–2 times this year. At the same time, the government has tasked the HTP with providing domestic software solutions for critical industries, particularly in artificial intelligence, industrial automation and software import substitution.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs added 18 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among them is the 70-year-old Nina Hnyadzko, convicted on charges of inciting hostility and insulting Aliaksandr Lukashenka. There are now 6,772 names on the list.

Another 40 people were recognised as former political prisoners in Belarus, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. “We assess the persecution of the above-mentioned people as politically motivated persecution in connection with their exercise of freedom of peaceful assembly, the right to association and freedom of expression in relation to the announced results of the presidential election of the Republic of Belarus, the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and other socially significant events,” the human rights defenders said. At the end of June, 859 political prisoners were in prison in Belarus, and the number of former political prisoners was 3,867.

According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, some of the prisoners pardoned on the eve of 3 July were those who were sentenced to restriction of freedom with referral to an open-type correctional institution. Moreover, the term of restriction of freedom of the majority of them, according to human rights defenders, was already coming to an end.

The Investigative Committee launched an in absentia investigation against Andrei Sushy. He was invited to attend the Department of the Investigative Committee for the Leninsky district of Minsk. Sushy is accused of insulting Aliaksandr Lukashenka, insulting a government official, illegally crossing the border, insulting a judge, facilitating “extremist” activities, violence or threats against an official, violence or threat of violence against an employee of the internal affairs bodies, and creating or participating in an “extremist” group.

The Investigative Committee launched an in absentia investigation against former political prisoner Hanna Vishnyak. She is accused of inciting discord, facilitating “extremist” activities, insulting Lukashenka, and insulting a government official. In 2021, Vishnyak was sentenced to two and a half years of imprisonment in the case against the administrators of the telegram channel and chat “Drivers 97”. After her release, she left Belarus.

The Investigative Committee launched an in absentia investigation against Vyachaslav Rusin. He is accused of insulting a government official.

On 29 July, the Minsk City Court will begin considering the criminal case of musician and singer Siarhei Mikhalok in absentia. Mikhalok is accused of inciting racial, national, religious or other social hatred or discord and insulting Lukashenka. Mikhalok is widely known as the leader of the Lapis Trubetskoy band. After the breakup of the band, he created the Brutto project. Mikhalok is known for his harsh criticism of authoritarianism and violence. Because of his position, he has not performed in Belarus for a long time.

Political prisoner Tatsiana Kolas, convicted in the “Black Book of Belarus case”, was diagnosed with cancer. She must be transferred to a hospital for further examination and treatment. However, it is planned to do this only in a few months. Kolas also suffers from severe back pain associated with a previous spinal compression fracture. Kolas has been in custody for more than four years. In October 2022, the Minsk City Court sentenced her to six and a half years of imprisonment for illegal actions with personal data, inciting social hatred, unlawful possession of computer information and abuse of official authority. According to the investigation, she had access to the personal data of law enforcement officers and transmitted this information to the telegram channel “Black Book of Belarus”.

When passing through border control at the entrance to Belarus, people are increasingly being forced to strip down to their underwear. This practice appeared at least by spring. Belarusians who were previously detained under political charges are most often confronted with this practice. Until recently, border checks were usually limited to checking the phone, but now a humiliating procedure has been added with the requirement to undress in the presence of witnesses. Customs officers referred to an “order from above” or a decision of the head of customs, but no reasons for such an inspection were given.

The Belarusian authorities continue to sell the property of a Catholic priest from Valozhin, Henrikh Akalatovich. In July, three ancient icons confiscated from him were sold at auctions. The icons were sold through separate auctions, each of which had only one participant. According to legislation, if only one participant is allowed to participate in the auction, the auction is declared invalid, but this participant gets the right to purchase property at a price 5% higher than the starting price. The 18^th-century icon “The Resurrection of Christ from the Tomb” was sold for 3,360 rubles (approximately 1,000 Euro), the icons of the late 19th and early 20th centuries “Great Martyr Paraskeva Friday” and “Our Lady of Three Joys” — for 735 and 525 rubles, respectively (approximately 225 and 160 Euro). Henrikh Akalatovich was detained at the end of 2023. He was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment under the charge of high treason, accused of espionage in favour of Poland and the Vatican. In November 2025, he was pardoned by Lukashenka and left for Rome.

The Belarusian Helsinki Committee published the Belarus Human Rights Index 2025. For the first time in seven years, it did not show a decrease compared to the previous year. However, as was noted by the authors of the study, this does not mean that the human rights situation has stabilised. “It is more likely to be the effect of approaching the lower end of the scale,” the BHC experts noted. The overall index in 2025 was 2.4 points out of 10, the same as a year earlier. Previously the indicator has been decreasing annually since 2019. The number of indicators that received the minimum score — one point out of ten — increased  during this period almost six times: from six indicators in 2019 to 37 in 2025. According to experts, this demonstrates a deepening of repressive practices and a further narrowing of the space for the realisation of even basic human rights. In 2025, the ratings of five rights decreased: the rights to life, freedom of thought, conscience and religion, education, social security and participation in cultural life. The most noticeable deterioration was recorded in the sphere of cultural rights. The National Human Rights Index has been published since 2019. More than 35 experts participated in its preparation for 2025.

On 6 July 2026, UN experts, including Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus, Andrea Bolaños Vargas, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, and Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, expressed serious concern over the arbitrary invalidation of passports of eight former Belarusian political prisoners forcibly expelled from Belarus after their release from detention, warning that the measure may amount to a continuing form of transnational repression and expose them to risks of statelessness and other human rights violations. “The sequence of politically motivated imprisonment, forced expulsion and subsequent invalidation of passports points to an escalating pattern of transnational repression,” the experts said. The eight individuals were forcibly expelled to Lithuania or Ukraine on 13 December 2025, where they discovered that their Belarusian passports had been unilaterally declared invalid despite remaining formally valid at the time of their expulsion. None received any official notification, decision or explanation. “The arbitrary invalidation of identity documents can severely affect a person’s right to freedom of movement, family life, legal status and access to employment, healthcare, banking services and other essential rights,” the experts said. They recalled that they raised similar concerns in their 8 December 2025 public statement following the deportation of Belarusian political prisoners to Lithuania, and in a 22 October 2025 communication to the authorities of Belarus.

The Group of Independent Experts on the human rights situation in Belarus, established by the UN Human Rights Council,  also strongly condemned these actions. They also recalled their past concerns related to the 2023 Belarusian Presidential Decree on consular services, which put an end to the issuance and extension of identity documents in Belarusian consular services abroad. The experts underlined concerns regarding the situation of Leanid Sudalenka, former political prisoner, human rights defender and former head of the Homel branch of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre. Following his release from prison in 2023, Sudalenka left Belarus due to continuing persecution. He was subsequently convicted in absentia under Belarus’ “special proceedings” framework and is now reportedly facing three additional criminal investigations for “extremist” offences related to his human rights activities and public expression. “Belarus must urgently cease using its vague and overly broad anti-extremism legislation to punish the legitimate exercise of protected rights,” experts concluded.

The Marek Karp Centre for Oriental Studies in Warsaw published a book titled “The Belarusian Archipelago. Stories of former political prisoners.” Its presentation took place at the Instytut Piletskiego on 6 July. The book documented the main features of the Belarusian repressive system. It opens with an article by Andrzej Poczobut, former political prisoner, journalist and Polish community activist, which described the modern penitentiary system of Belarus with documentary precision. Thirteen stories by former political prisoners showed the full range of experiences and reflected the fate of thousands of other innocent people who were imprisoned for many years for fighting for their fundamental rights.

On 8 July, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopted the Hague Declaration on the results of the 33rd session. The declaration covers the situation in Belarus. The Parliamentary Assembly noted “recent releases of some political prisoners in Belarus, and recognised the significant diplomatic efforts contributing to these developments while expressing concern that politically motivated charges and detentions persist, underscoring the imperative to end all arbitrary detentions and ensure full respect for the human rights and fundamental freedoms of the Belarusian people, and reiterated the call for Belarus to fully implement the recommendations set forth in the OSCE Moscow Mechanism reports of recent years (para. 159)”. The Assembly also adopted a separate resolution dedicated to Belarus, entitled “The Situation in Belarus in the Context of Regional Security, Transnational Repression and Human Rights.” The document stated that Belarus under the Lukashenka regime is no longer a factor of stability in the region but instead constitutes a source of threats to regional security across the OSCE area. It also stated that Lukashenka continues to use hybrid instruments of pressure against OSCE participating states, including the forced landing of a Ryanair civilian aircraft, the artificially orchestrated migration crisis on the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, the launch of aerial objects violating the airspace of OSCE participating states, as well as activities related to cyberattacks and other forms of destabilisation. It referred to transnational repression carried out by the Belarusian authorities, including the persecution, intimidation and harassment of Belarusians abroad, as well as the abuse of international mechanisms. “The Lukashenka regime’s innovative approaches to transnational repression serve as a powerful model for the Russian Federation and other authoritarian States to imitate as they attempt to silence opponents abroad,” the resolution said. It further stated that “a sustainable resolution of the crisis in Belarus is only possible through the cessation of repression, the holding of free and fair elections and ensuring accountability for violations of international law.” The OSCE participating states were urged to strengthen measures against transnational repression, including preventing the abuse of international mechanisms, and to ensure appropriate protection for Belarusians abroad. The Parliamentary Assembly further called for the development of concrete legal and administrative solutions for Belarusians in exile, including access to identity documents, legal status and fundamental rights. The Assembly welcomed the launch of the International Criminal Court’s investigation into international crimes committed by the Lukashenka regime and called for the support of the investigation.

The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe has begun work on a report on Belarus, which is scheduled to be adopted in March 2027. During the preparation of the report, the Congress will cooperate with the delegation of the Coordination Council of Belarusian democratic forces in the Council of Europe. Representatives of the Coordination Council have already proposed to include in the report the issues of the implementation of the Luxembourg Agreements at the local level in the CoE countries, as well as the access of former political prisoners and other Belarusians affected by repression to local social support programs.

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Best regards, iSANS team