Belarus Review by iSANS — January 13, 2025 

Belarus Review by iSANS — January 13, 2025
Photo: Telegram channel of Roman Protasevich 
  1. MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
  2. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
  3. HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
  4. PROPAGANDA

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

Russian drones of the “Shahed” type continued to enter Belarusian airspace during the week under review. From January 6 to January 12, 28 drones were reported to have flown into Belarus, with 25 coming from Ukraine and three from Russia. Specific incidents were recorded on January 6 (six drones), January 8 (17 drones), January 9 (four drones), and January 11 (one drone). Most drones reportedly returned to Ukrainian territory, while the fate of others remains unknown. Notably, on January 8, a Russian drone crashed near the Ziabrauka airfield in the Homiel region, allegedly shot down by Russian air defense units stationed there since 2022.

On January 8, personnel at the 2285th separate radio-technical battalion in Lida received the Russian-made “Sopka-2” radar system. This system reportedly enhances airspace monitoring capabilities and serves as a radar information source for air traffic management systems. Its capabilities allow it to measure the range and altitude of aerial objects and determine their national affiliation (“friend or foe”). Additionally, it was announced that Belarusian-made low-altitude radar systems “Rosa-RB” would be introduced to the 8th Radio-Technical Brigade in 2025.

From January 8 to 31, training exercises involving reservists of territorial troops are being conducted under the leadership of the Chairman of the Homiel District Executive Committee. During these exercises, particular emphasis is being reportedly placed on preparing reservists to perform tasks in coordination with engineering units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The Homiel district, which borders Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, is the first region in Belarus to host territorial defense exercises in 2025.

On January 9, details were revealed regarding the organizational and staffing structure of the 62nd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (note: the regiment was formed in 2024 in Hrodna and is part of the Western Operational Command). The regiment includes the following units: headquarters, command post, batteries (four anti-aircraft missile batteries; command and radar reconnaissance; technical), companies (communications; logistics; repair), and a medical station. The structure is considered standard for anti-aircraft missile regiments equipped with the «Osa» surface-to-air missile system.

On January 10, Valery Ravenka, head of the Department of International Military Cooperation at the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, stated in an interview that the annual “Zapad-2025” exercises would be among the largest in recent years. According to Ravenka, the exercises “will involve over 13,000 personnel in terms of scale. … We were obligated to, and have already, informed all states participating in the Vienna Document that this exercise will take place.” Delegations from Belarus’s “allies, friends, and partners,” including certain European Union and NATO member states, are expected to be invited to observe the exercises. The specific countries to be invited were not disclosed.

On January 12, in the program “Arsenal”, Leanid Davidovich, Deputy Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces, stated: “If not every night, then every other night or day, our fighter aviation crews take to the air to respond to unmanned aviation that violates the state border [of Belarus] and disrupts the rules for using airspace.” Davidovich did not specify which country the drones belong to.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw at the start of her working visit to Poland. This meeting is particularly significant as Poland assumes the EU Council Presidency, opening new opportunities for collaboration between Polish authorities and Belarusian democratic forces. Key discussion topics included addressing issues faced by the Belarusian diaspora in Poland, improving mobility through expanded visa issuance, securing the release of Andrzej Poczobut and other political prisoners, and the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border. Tusk, in turn, affirmed that Belarus would remain a priority during Poland’s EU Council term. Tsikhanouskaya also addressed a joint session of the Polish Sejm, Senate, and Foreign and European Affairs Committees, attended by Polish officials, experts, and representatives of the Belarusian democratic community. Her speech emphasized political prisoners, cooperation with democratic forces, regional security, and supporting Belarusians in Poland while distinguishing the Belarusian people from the Lukashenka regime. She lauded Poland as “a symbol of freedom and solidarity for Belarusians striving for a European future,” urged stronger ties between people, and cautioned against negotiating with Lukashenka, describing him as a threat to Belarusian independence. Together with the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Pavel Latushka, she met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, discussing among other issues the visa challenges Belarusians face in exile. To address the problem, the Belarusian leader proposed easing requirements for student and work visas and invited Poland to consider issuing Schengen visas for longer terms. Additionally, Tsikhanouskaya called for an effective mechanism for issuing visas in third countries, such as Georgia. Following the meetings, Tsikhanouskaya and members of the United Transitional Cabinet met with the Polish President Andrzej Duda. He reaffirmed his unwavering support for a free and independent Belarus, while condemning escalating repression in Belarus, including the sentencing of the catholic priest Henadz Akalatovich, and emphasized the shared struggle for freedom and democracy. “Although my term is nearing its end, I will always remain a friend of a free and independent Belarus. You can always count on my support, wherever I may be,” said President Duda. Continuing her visit to Warsaw, Tsikhanouskaya met with Poland’s Minister of Economic Development and Technology, Krzysztof Paszyk. The meeting reportedly focused on supporting the Belarusian democratic community, entrepreneurs, and Belarusians who have sought refuge in Poland. “Over 18,000 businesses and companies owned by Belarusians are currently registered in Poland”. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called for comprehensive support “for honest businesses that uphold democratic and European values and do not cooperate with the Lukashenka regime”. In addition, she also signed the Memorandum of Understanding with the Community of Democracies, represented by Secretary General Mantas Adomenas. Photogallery of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s visit to Poland can be found here. Tsikhanouskaya’s Office published results of her working visit to Poland, which included the following: Poland will not recognize results of “presidential elections” in Belarus (January 26), will continue dialogue with Belarusian democratic forces; the country will consider joining the Lithuanian appeal to the ICC against Lukashenka; Poland will continue its programs to support Belarusian civil society and independent media, including Radio Racyja and European Radio for BelarusBelsat; Polish Sejm and the Senate have created a group «For a Democratic Belarus»  under the leadership of former Parliament’s speaker Grzegorz Schetyna; Kalinousky’s forum will be held this year in Washington with the expected participation of representatives of the new US administration.

Belarusian high school diplomas will now be recognized in Poland as equivalent to Polish ones, with standardized requirements for applicants regardless of the university or region. This was discussed during a meeting between the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and the Polish Minister of Education, Barbara Nowacka, as reported by the United Transitional Cabinet. This change addresses issues that arose after the 2023 expiration of a Belarus-Poland education agreement, which ensured mutual recognition of diplomas. Previously, Belarusian applicants faced difficulties obtaining certificates to validate their diplomas due to restrictions in Belarus, but Poland has since eliminated this requirement. While recognition is now based on administrative decisions, local education boards have the authority to set additional criteria, such as requiring centralized testing certificates, which poses safety concerns for those needing to return to Belarus to obtain them.

EU spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy, Anitta Hipper, has called for the release of all political prisoners in Belarus after the Lukashenka regime showed images of Viktar Babaryka, a Belarusian political prisoner who has been held incommunicado for more than 700 days. She also shared a post by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, saying: “Now, we must demand to see all others who remain hidden, and this cruel, inhumane practice must end.” On January 8, an ex-journalist and activist Roman Protasevich, who now is serving for the Lukashenka regime, published photos of his meeting with Viktar Babaryka on his Telegram channel. Babaryka was last heard from in February 2023, and other prisoners said later that year he was hospitalized with signs of beatings. Since then, authorities haven’t released any information about his condition and barred his lawyer from visits.

Afghanistan (Taliban) Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai (included in Lukashenka’s KGB list of terrorists and the UN sanction list) met with Belarus’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Lukashevich to discuss economic and political cooperation as well as potential areas for bilateral collaboration. Lukashevich expressed “Belarus’ interest in laying the groundwork for cooperation across various sectors with Afghanistan,” as stated by the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry on January 12. Stanikzai noted that Lukashevich’s visit to Kabul marked “a positive beginning for the long-term partnership”. Additionally, the Taliban’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported that Minister Nouruddin Azizi also met with his Belarusian counterpart in Kabul. The two sides reportedly agreed to organize joint exhibitions, business conferences, and meetings between government delegations and private sector representatives from both countries to foster increased trade and investment.

Lukashenka’s  Deputy Prime Minister Viktar Karankevich participated in the inauguration the country’s president Nicolas Maduro, whose re-election is not recognized by the Venezuelan opposition and a number of states, and discussed the development of Belarusian-Venezuelan relations with him. Karankevich stressed that “Belarus and Venezuela are ready to overcome sanction challenges and barriers together”.

The Warsaw District Court has issued a second European arrest warrant for former judge Tomasz Schmidt, who fled to Belarus in the spring of last year. The Polish Prosecutor’s Office announced this on January 10. Schmidt is suspected of involvement in the so-called “hater scandal.” According to prosecutors, he was linked to the actions of an organized criminal group that caused harm to judges of common courts. The former judge is accused of illegally processing the personal data of victims and disclosing and transmitting this information to third parties.

HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE


89 “extremist groups” appeared in Belarus in 2024, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. There are currently 257 “extremist groups” in the country. In most cases, the recognition of “extremist formations” was handled by the KGB, which adopted 56 such decisions in 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs adopted 33 decisions. In 2021, 27 entities were recognized as “extremist groups” in two months, in 2022 – 80 entities, in 2023 – 62 entities.

In the course of December 2024, human rights defenders have been recording a tendency for the judicial system to work intensively to sentence persons who were subjected to politically motivated criminal repression. “Viasna” Human Rights Center noted that in December, according to preliminary data, at least 188 persons were repressed, 141 of whom were men and 47 were women. Seven more persons were convicted within the framework of a special procedure (in absentia).

At least 20 political prisoners served their full sentences, and 49 persons were released after being pardoned in December. As of January 10, 1,254 persons were recognized as political prisoners, and their number is increasing almost weekly.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office reported in its “Digit of the Day” project that about 350 death sentences have been carried out in Belarus over the past 30 years. Belarus remains the last country in Europe to impose capital punishment. They are executed in secrecy – relatives do not know either the day of death or the burial place of their loved ones. In March 2023, the death penalty began to be applied for “high treason” if it was committed by an official or a military serviceman.

Political prisoner Mikalai Autukhovich, who was sentenced to 25 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony, was sent to a punishment cell before the New Year. The colony administration also refused to accept a medical parcel for him. Mikalai Autukhovich turned 62 on January 7. A source aware of his affairs concludes that Autukhovich was once again punished with a punishment cell from his last letter, in which the political prisoner sarcastically calls it a “sanatorium.” The source notes that Autukhovich did not complain, but found the strength to cheer up his family. The medical package that the relatives sent to Autukhovich in December did not reach the recipient and was returned. Recently, his family sent him a new parcel with medicines. According to the information from Autukhovich, his legs began to swell from the disease; he needs special medications. Autukhovich is periodically placed in a punishment cell, while the reasons for the punishment remain unknown. In November 2024, he informed his family that he had spent 21 days in a punishment cell, where he received only occasional medical help, and it was very cold in his cell. He also said that his blood pressure monitor was taken away from him, although he had permission to use it. After that time in a punishment cell, he wrote that “if something happened to him, it was done on purpose.”

It became known that at the end of December, Mikalai Hila, a protestant preacher and an employee of the EU delegation to Belarus, was convicted in Minsk. He was found guilty of “inciting other social discord or hostility”, as well as “calling for sanctions” and sentenced to four years of imprisonment.

On January 8, Raman Pratasevich, former editor-in-chief of a leading opposition news service, the Nexta project, published photos and videos in prison of Viktar Babaryka, a political prisoner, banker and public figure, presidential candidate in 2020, who was sentenced to 14 years of imprisonment. Viktar Babaryka was held incommunicado for almost two years. Sometimes, there were concerns about whether he was still alive, especially after information appeared about his hospitalization with multiple injuries, and after news of a possible stroke. Photos and videos appeared on Pratasevich’s Telegram channel. According to him, the meeting took place on the territory of colony No. 1 in the city of Navapalotsk. Pratasevich gave Babaryka letters from his relatives and took a letter from him to give to the family. Babaryka, in his opinion, “looked good” and is in a “cheerful mood.” The videos and photos show that Viktar Babaryka has lost a lot of weight. He has a yellow tag on his prison uniform, which all political prisoners are marked with. Members of Babaryka’s team assume that the meeting in the colony took place last year. In the short video, he is smiling and addressing his daughter Maryja: “I hope that you will celebrate all the holidays together and convey my wonderful congratulations and greetings to everyone. I love you all very much.” Experts note that the reason for Pratasevich’s admission to Viktar Babaryka, as well as Maryja Kalesnikava’s father meeting with his daughter earlier, is not the generosity of the regime, but an attempt to force the West to engage in dialogue and lift sanctions. This is one of the few instruments of pressure used to break through the political isolation of the regime and legitimize it. This is especially evident against the background of the increased persecution of various categories of Belarusians over the past year, “Viasna” Human Rights Center have noted. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya commented the news about Viktar Babaryka: “To see him, like Maryja Kalesnikava a few months ago, is a huge relief. But we must not forget that more than 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars unfairly.”

Political prisoner Mikalai Statkevich, who was sentenced to 14 years imprisonment, is being held incommunicado for a long time. The last letter from him came to his wife Maryna Adamovich almost two years ago, on February 9, 2023. During Mikalai Statkevich’s imprisonment, his father died. Maryna Adamovich reported on her social media that she constantly traveled to the colony where Mikalai Statkevich was being held. The colony administration told her, as they did to the relatives of other political prisoners held incommunicado, that prisoners did not want to communicate with their families and refused visits. According to the colony authorities, Statkevich was notified of his father’s death.

On January 6, in Homel region those  previously convicted on political grounds were summoned to a “preventive conversation” with one of the police departments. After the conversation, an employee of the penal enforcement inspectorate demanded that the former convicts appear for the same “conversation” on January 26, that is, on election day. Some of those present reminded the security officer that on this day they should go to vote. “Well, try to go vote, let’s see how it ends for you. You have already voted in 2020!” the security officer replied.

On January 9, propagandist Yuri Vaskrasenski named five more political prisoners who were released after being pardoned. He said that Bakunovich, Volkava, Natallia Kruk, Irena Kliavets, and Inna Paltsava were among 20 political prisoners pardoned at the end of December. Several political prisoners bear the surname Bakunovich. In addition to the already released Aliaksandr Bakunovich, these are Anita Bakunovich and Lilia Bakunovich. Vaskrasenski did not specify which of them he was referring to. Volkava’s last name is also borne by two female political prisoners. It was not specified which of them was released upon pardon.

On January 10, the trial of Nakanishi Masatoshi, a Japanese citizen, charged with “espionage activities”, has begun. He was detained back in July. It was alleged that he “collected and transmitted military intelligence information to the Japanese special services.” The process is held behind closed doors. Masatoshi can be sentenced to up to seven years of imprisonment. The Japanese Embassy in Belarus requested the authorities to allow their representatives to attend the trial, but they were refused. “We will continue to take appropriate actions to protect the rights of Japanese citizens,” the embassy said.

Political prisoner Mikita Yemialyianau, who has been in custody for more than five years, will be tried again. In 2020, he was sentenced to seven years in a high-security colony, but later the court of appeal reduced the sentence to four years. In May 2021, Emelanau was transferred to a prison regime. The prison administration initiated a criminal case against him on charges of malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration. In March 2022, he was sentenced to two more years of imprisonment and sent to serve his sentence in Valkavysk colony No. 11, where he continued to be placed in a punishment cell. A year later, in March 2023, the Valkavysk district court decided to transfer Nikita to a prison regime. He was placed in Hrodna prison No. 1.

On January 10, the House of Representatives adopted a draft law amending the legislation on criminal liability in the second reading. The Criminal Code, the Code of Administrative Offences, and the Procedural and Executive Code are being amended. The draft law will now be submitted to the Council of the Republic. Among other things, the law expands the list of charges according to which Belarusians who have left the country can be tried in absentia. In particular, “crimes of a terrorist nature” were added to it. The list of crimes for which citizens of the Republic of Belarus will be held responsible when they are committed outside the country is also being expanded and will include, among other, inciting discord, discrediting the Republic of Belarus, insulting the president, and defamation of state symbols. It is also proposed to include new charges in the Criminal Code, for example, Article 366-1 “Violence or threat against the President of the Republic of Belarus, the President of the Republic of Belarus, who has terminated his powers.” A reference to the former president will also appear in Article 367 (slandering the President) and 368 (insulting the President).

Photos of Vitsebsk journalists Alena Shabuni, Aliaksandr Kornyshau and human rights activist Pavel Levinau appeared on the police stands in the list of persons who are wanted “for committing crimes”. From the information posted near the photo of Alena Shabuni, it follows that she is accused of “calling for actions aimed at harming the national security”. Judging by the caption to the photo of Levinau, who has repeatedly helped independent journalists with legal advice, he is accused of “organizing and preparing actions that violate public order”. Aliaksandr Kornyshau’s photo contains only his passport data, however, it can be assumed that a criminal case was opened against him for involvement in “extremist” activities – on May 10, 2024, the European Choice coalition was declared an “extremist formation”, and the name of Aliaksandr Kornyshau appeared on the list of persons who belonged to it. He also reported that during repeated searches of his parents apartment, representatives of law enforcement bodies were particularly interested in his editorial activities and the details of an interview that was aired last year on the Belsat TV channel.

A pregnant 31-year-old woman was detained upon entering Belarus for “insulting comments” addressed to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus in 2020, a Telegram channel close to the security forces reports. It was alleged that the woman left for Lithuania, but then decided to return to Belarus. She was detained after crossing the border.

The US Embassy has called for the release of Paval Seviarynets and all political prisoners in Belarus. The statement notes that “more than four years ago, Paval Seviarynets, a Belarusian activist and opposition politician who consistently stood up for the rights of Belarusians and fought against election fraud, was detained. The first time, Paval Seviarynets was sentenced to three years of restricted freedom in 2005 for organizing protest actions. Most recently, on May 25, 2021, he was sentenced to seven years in a penal colony.”

On January 9, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly stated that “the decision of the Belarusian authorities not to invite OSCE participating states to observe the country’s presidential election on 26 January is deeply regrettable and prevents an impartial and independent assessment of the election process”. “I deeply regret the decision of the Belarusian authorities not to invite OSCE states through ODIHR to observe the forthcoming presidential election, depriving the country’s citizens of a transparent and full assessment of the entire process,” said ODIHR Director Maria Telalian, – “This decision underscores the continued lack of commitment by the Belarusian authorities to invite other OSCE states to observe and provide an independent view on whether the elections are held in line with OSCE commitments and international democratic standards.” It is noted that ODIHR has made efforts in recent months to engage with the Belarusian authorities regarding the invitation to observe. However, with election day less than three weeks away, ODIHR has been unable to monitor key stages of the process. “Once again, the Belarusian government has decided to disregard its obligation as a signatory to the 1990 Copenhagen Document to invite observers from other OSCE participating states for its elections,” said OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Pia Kauma, – “This decision is deeply regrettable. The lack of cooperation from Belarus diminishes the spirit of trust that underpins the OSCE even more and the lack of transparency further undermines faith in the electoral system of Belarus.”

The Kremlin may revisit the plan to annex Belarus to Russia after the war in Ukraine, potentially presenting it as a “deeper integration” between the two countries, as reported by “Meduza” publication referring to sources close to the presidential administration. This plan could allegedly involve creating joint governing bodies, but its execution largely depends on Lukashenka, who remains determined to stay in power. Ahead of Belarus’s upcoming elections, Lukashenka expressed his willingness to transfer power to a new generation, though he intends to continue in office as long as his health permits. In December 2024, Lukashenka and Putin signed a security agreement, including the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

PROPAGANDA

On January 6, Lukashenka’s press secretary Natallia Eismant denied Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the Belarusian dictator had apologized to the  President of Ukraine in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion for the launch of Russian missiles from Belarusian territory at Ukraine: “The President of Belarus did not apologize to Zelenskyy for the simple reason that we have nothing to apologize for. First and foremost because, as we remember, Ukraine was the first to impose sanctions against Belarus, even going ahead of America and the entire West.” Eismant added that the conversation occurred “exclusively due to the emotional reaction” of Lukashenka’s younger son, Nikolai, who had Zelenskyy’s personal contact in his phone. She claimed that her boss urged Zelenskyy to sit down for negotiations: “President Lukashenka, both then and now, is convinced that this conflict largely happened because of Zelenskyy’s policies. If he listened less to his Western curators and focused on the interests of his people, this war could have been avoided.” On the same day, a united chorus of regime representatives joined in defending Lukashenka. MP Vadzim Hihin stated: “Recently, Zelenskyy has been recalling Belarus more often. Does he want to say something? So far, it’s not going very well. It’s more like he’s mumbling something incoherent. However, this fits into the picture of his psycho-emotional state. Conflicts with Orban and Fico, breakdowns with his subordinates – all this is quite explainable when considering the unfortunate position the Kyiv regime is in now.” Pro-government politician Aleh Ramanau, in turn, added: “Unsubstantiated statements by Volodymyr Zelenskyy about Belarus as a whole and Aliaksandr Lukashenka in particular are just another attempt to create a negative media event out of thin air. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, independent Belarus has been a loyal ally of Russia in various spheres – from economics to security. It is clear that today we are not deviating from our choice: we support the goals and objectives of the special military operation. We openly state that the responsibility for the beginning of the conflict lies entirely on the shoulders of the current Ukrainian authorities, who acted under the instructions of the collective West.” Pro-government expert Aliaksei Dzermant also commented: “Believing this is the same as believing his endless lies about Russia. A pathological liar and a clown. This was done intentionally for the Belarusian presidential election to cast a shadow on our President. As usual, petty malice from a backstabbing snake.” MP Aliaksandr Shpakouski said: “Zelenskyy’s statements cannot be seen as anything other than disinformation, and quite poor disinformation at that. Only in the mind of a drug-addicted actor, who by chance ended up leading the unfortunate Ukraine, could the thought have arisen that Lukashenka ‘asked to strike the refinery in Mazyr.’ Not to mention that the Belarusian President supposedly ‘apologized.’ Firstly, Minsk is absolutely consistent in its support of Russia, and secondly, the Belarusian side has always stated that the full historical responsibility for the unprecedented human casualties and the suffering of the Ukrainian people lies squarely with Zelenskyy, the other representatives of the Kyiv leadership, and their Western masters.”

On January 7, the day the Belarusian Orthodox Church celebrated the Feast of the Nativity of Christ, Aliaksandr Lukashenka visited the St. Nicholas the Wonderworker Church in Lahoisk. In his address to the parishioners, he stated that 2025 would be “difficult” and described his alleged lack of attachment to power as his advantage: “I will do everything to peacefully and calmly pass this power to the new generation, because I still hope to live under the new government, and you too.” He assured them that everything necessary would be done to ensure a smooth generational transition: “The future time, especially the coming five-year period, is about the change of generations. Both I and many with me – we’re not eternal. We need to prepare the younger generation. The next generation, our children, who will take Belarus into their hands and cherish it, value it. At least, just like we – the current generation – have protected it and made this country sovereign and independent. For the first time in history. Therefore, generational change is always a painful process. But I promise you, we will make it so that you won’t notice any pain.” Touching upon the issue of illegal migration, Lukashenka again emphasized that he had no intention of assisting the EU in resolving the migration crisis: “There is now a huge transit through us to the West, where they are aiming. And we are constantly blamed for facilitating this migration. I’ve always been honest. We will not protect anyone from migrants. Especially those who impose economic sanctions on us. Why should we protect them?” He also accused Zelenskyy of drawing Belarus into the war: “Why does Volodya Zelenskyy behave like this? We were on good terms with him, even my small family was. Why is he barking, what does he want? He is being given orders. He must do everything to pull our country into war.” Lukashenka is confident that if Belarus enters the war, it will not survive as a state: “If we are dragged into the war, it will be a tough situation. We may not survive as a state. That’s why I do everything patiently, and persistently, just as God and the Church teach us. We do our job. Time will rebuild everything. Time will give everyone an evaluation. But we must stand firm. Let them say that we have a dictatorship here, or whatever. Listen, better a dictatorship like the one in Belarus than a democracy like in Ukraine.” On January 8, while speaking at an awards ceremony, he once again warned those who sought to “destabilize” Belarus that they would fail, as the country “already belongs to our children and grandchildren.” Interestingly, after 31 years in power, he expressed concern over the issue of preserving Belarus’s statehood: “We will do everything in the upcoming five-year period to ensure that our country will forever forget the problem of maintaining its statehood. Our country will always be a state, despite any global trends and tendencies.”

On January 8, pro-government politician and “spoiler candidate” in the upcoming “presidential elections”, Aleh Haidukevich, presented his election program, which, among other things, proposed developing allied relations with Russia. In his opinion, such cooperation “strengthens sovereignty.” He also stated that Belarus needs to amend its Electoral Code to prevent “random people” from coming to power. The candidate believes it is necessary to make the following changes to the legislation regarding presidential elections in Belarus: “We propose, at the legislative level, to limit the participation in elections of incompetent politicians, traitors, and representatives of the fifth column. The right to nominate presidential candidates should be held by the parliamentary parties of the country and the National Assembly.” His supposed rival, Siarhei Syrankou, leader of the Communist Party of Belarus and another “spoiler” candidate, echoes this sentiment. In his program, Syrankou claims that despite the government’s efforts to combat the aftermath of the 2020 events, there are still “a sufficient number of individuals involved in the attempted coup.” Therefore, Syrankou wants to “deepen the purification of the system, not only of the state but of society as a whole, from the traitors occupying responsible positions and those who were undermining the system in 2020 and are now lying in wait, hoping for loosening of restrictions to resume their harmful activity.” The communist also calls for “the restoration of the heroic memory of one of the founders of the Belarusian Soviet state, the leader of the victorious Soviet state, Stalin,” and within this context, he proposes restoring monuments to Stalin in Belarus and “returning his status as a faithful father of Belarusian statehood.”

On January 11, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus for International Military Cooperation, Valery Ravenka, in a conversation with “VoenTV” employee Hanna Chyzh-Litash, stated that ahead of Lukashenka’s re-election, provocations from opponents should be expected: “At the same time, there is one very serious danger – it’s not so much the actions of the military departments of neighboring states with us. It’s more likely the actions of certain political circles and governments, which are forming units from our ‘fugitives’, training them, and arming them. There is definitely a threat here. There may be inadequate behavior. They may just give an order to do something, some provocation. We are ready for that.”

Best regards,
iSANS team

13.01.2025

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