Belarus Review by iSANS — February 17, 2025 

In Belarusian airspace, Russian Shahed drones continued to be detected. From February 10 to February 16, at least seven drones were reported to have flown in the Gomel region alone. Media outlets reported that during the night of February 13, one of the drones was shot down over Homel. It is believed that the downing was carried out by an air defense unit of the Russian Armed Forces stationed at the “Zyabrovka” airfield. No official comments have been provided by authorities. The information was confirmed only in Telegram channels connected to the security services.

The Belarusian Armed Forces continued to check their combat readiness. According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, during the week, a conscription of military reservists was ongoing. The removal of military equipment from long-term storage began. On February 13, State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich visited the units involved in the inspection. According to him, “All activities taking place today in Belarus, related to combat training and checking combat readiness issues, are aimed primarily at restoring skills and preparing a well-trained reserve, as well as checking the equipment that is in storage. We will continue to prepare a well-trained reserve of citizens of our country on a scheduled basis.” Valfovich also commented on the upcoming Belarusian-Russian exercises “Zapad-2025”: “Recently, the leadership of the collective West has been accusing us of preparing for some kind of aggression, presenting a threat from the East. They are concerned about the Belarusian-Russian exercises scheduled for 2025. There is nothing extraordinary about this. These exercises have been held on a scheduled basis every two years since 2009. […] The joint exercises planned for this year are aimed at working on issues and checking the readiness of the regional grouping of forces to defend the territory of the Union State.”

On February 12, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced the opening of a military department at the Belarusian-Russian University in Mahilyow. Students at the department will reportedly be trained in three specialties: combat application of units armed with multiple rocket launch systems; combat application of ground reconnaissance units; use of motorized units for general military purposes. The training period at the military department is two years and five months. Upon completion of the course, students will receive the officer rank of reserve lieutenant. The military department became the 16^th of its kind in Belarus and the first in the Mahilyow region.

On February 12, a decree was signed awarding the rank of “Major General” to several servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The following officers were promoted: Dzmitry Bitny (deputy commander of the Western Operational Command), Vadim Romaniv (head of the communications department of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces), Vitaly Shestak (first deputy chief of armaments of the Belarusian Armed Forces — head of the armaments staff), and Sergei Frolov (chief of the General Staff — first deputy commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces).

On February 10, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the new President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, to discuss key security issues and the political situation in Belarus and the region, according to Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. During the meeting in Brussels, Tsikhanouskaya and Costa discussed coordinating efforts to increase international pressure on the Lukashenka regime to secure the release of political prisoners; the 2025 “elections” — the EU does not intend to recognize Lukashenka and will continue to support democratic forces; and regional security — threats posed by Russia’s military presence in Belarus and their broader implications for European security. Costa assured Tsikhanouskaya that he regularly raises the issue of Belarus. “The EU’s position remains principled and unchanged. Political prisoners must be released, repression must end, and Belarus must stop its involvement in aggression against Ukraine,” he stated. Costa also emphasized the need to support Belarusian democratic forces and called the Lukashenka regime a threat to European security. On the same day, following her meeting with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that the European Parliament maintains a firm and consistent stance on Belarus and remains highly attentive to the situation of political prisoners. During the meeting, they discussed support for Belarus and the EU’s continued non-recognition of the so-called “elections”; the EU’s strategy toward Belarus; the release of political prisoners and ongoing solidarity campaigns; engagement with the new U.S. administration and coordination between the EU and the U.S. regarding negotiations on the future of the region and Belarus’s role in it; the mobility of Belarusians and the challenges they face in obtaining legal status within the EU.

During her working visit to Paris, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met with the parliamentary group “For a Democratic Belarus” in the French National Assembly. This group regularly holds meetings where lawmakers present new initiatives, discuss current challenges, and explore ways to support Belarusian civil society. Tsikhanouskaya specifically raised the issue of financial support for Belarusian independent media and civil society, which have faced difficulties following the suspension of international aid from the United States. Also, Belarusian political prisoners were under discussions: “Make every effort to free political prisoners.”

On February 13, Tsikhanouskaya met with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern European Affairs, Christopher Smith, who had personally traveled to Minsk to secure the release of Yelena Movshuk, Andrei Kuznechyk, and an unnamed U.S. citizen. “I expressed my gratitude to Mr. Smith for his efforts, his cooperation and coordination with our Office, and conveyed my personal thanks to President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio — this was made possible thanks to their political will,” Tsikhanouskaya stated. According to her, the meeting focused on the next steps for securing the release of other political prisoners, as well as the continuation of the Strategic Dialogue between the U.S. government and the Belarusian democratic forces and international cooperation, particularly in the context of ongoing negotiations on Ukraine.
The Munich Security Conference took place from February 14 to 16, with Belarus represented by the leader of the democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. She participated in two discussions as part of the main program, calling on the West to take an active role in supporting democratic change in Belarus and ensuring regional security. During the conversation, the Belarusian leader focused attention on the issues of releasing Belarusian political prisoners, the importance of supporting independent media, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on the future of Belarus and the entire region. During her closing speech, Tsikhanouskaya stated: “What are our interests? They are clear. We need a stable and just world. This is only possible if Belarus becomes a sovereign and democratic country. To achieve this, we must weaken Russia’s influence and its grip on our territory. We demand that Russian troops withdraw not only from Ukraine but also from our land.” In addition to her participation in the official sessions, Tsikhanouskaya continued her diplomatic efforts at the forum, holding meetings with key European and U.S. politicians. Among those she met with were European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys, and others, including the heads of the Foreign Affairs Committees of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate — Bryan Mast (House of Representatives) and Jim Risch (Senate), both representing the Republican Party. The main topics of discussion included: Belarus’s role in regional security and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia; strategies for securing the release and support of Belarusian political prisoners; assistance for civil society and independent media and cooperation with the democratic forces. U.S. Congressman, co-chair of the Belarusian Caucus (parliamentary group), Republican Joe Wilson, also met with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on the sidelines of the Conference and called on the international community to close all loopholes for circumventing sanctions. “I am grateful for the meeting with the elected president of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya! The long nightmare of dictator Lukashenka’s tyranny will end.” Tsikhanouskaya also met with the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk. She handed over documents from Belarusian human rights defenders regarding the latest wave of repression, the situation in prisons, and lists of political prisoners in critical condition. Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that the situation is catastrophic and requires immediate intervention. She urged the High Commissioner to facilitate humanitarian releases, end the practice of “incommunicado” detention, and ensure access to prisoners.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, he would like to discuss the issue of Belarus. “I think I will talk to President Trump about what the Russians are planning to do with Belarus. We clearly understand this. I believe there will be an opportunity to discuss it tomorrow, or maybe even later today,” Zelenskyy told journalists on February 14 in Munich. In his speech during the conference, he also multiple times mentioned Belarus: “We have precise intelligence that this summer Russia plans to send troops to Belarus under the guise of exercises. But this is exactly how they deployed forces before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Are these Russian forces in Belarus intended for an attack on Ukraine? Perhaps. Or maybe not. Or perhaps, they are for you. Belarus has effectively become a launching pad for Russian military operations. It is clear that Putin sees Belarus as yet another Russian province.”  Zelenskyy also wants the dividing line in Europe to run along the eastern border of Ukraine and Belarus. This statement was made in his speech at the Munich Security Conference. “The core of any security guarantees for Ukraine must be NATO membership. Or, if not NATO,” Zelenskyy added, “then conditions that would allow us to build another NATO, right here in Ukraine. Because at some point, there will be a line between war and peace.” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented on the issue, once again emphasizing that negotiations to end the war concern the entire region, and without resolving the crisis in Belarus, there will be no sustainable peace. “We are in dialogue with the new U.S. administration and making it clear that Belarus can play a key role in this matter. We cannot allow the status quo to be maintained, and Belarus must not remain within Russia’s sphere of influence.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on the official Minsk to release all political prisoners “who remain in prisons across Belarus.” This was stated in a press release published on February 12 on the U.S. Department of State’s website. The document also emphasizes that “the strong leadership of the U.S. President Donald Trump led to the release of an unjustly detained American citizen in Belarus and two political prisoners.” Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Kris Smith, reportedly met in Minsk with Aliaksandr Lukashenka and KGB head Ivan Tertsel to discuss the terms of a potential deal, according to The New York Times. The release of a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian political prisoners by Lukashenka last week could mark the first step toward a larger agreement between Washington and Minsk. This was revealed by Kris Smith during a meeting of diplomats in Vilnius. As part of the deal, Smith explained, Lukashenka could release many political prisoners, including well-known figures. In return, the U.S. would ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports. This move, Smith clarified, is part of Washington’s efforts to reduce Moscow’s influence over Minsk.

The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe invited the Coordination Council of Belarus to form a delegation to participate in its sessions. The decision to invite Belarusian democratic forces to take part in the sessions and statutory committees of the Congress was made on February 10 by the Congress Bureau. “This is another step in support of local democracy and self-governance in a free and democratic Belarus,” stated the Coordination Council.

On February 7, Polish President Andrzej Duda signed amendments to a law that strengthens the enforcement of sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The key changes include: increased control over compliance with sanctions; extending the temporary forced management of frozen assets from 24 to 36 months; stricter requirements for exporters to prevent the circumvention of sanctions against Russia and Belarus; a ban on participation in public procurement for companies and individuals included in the sanctions list.

In the first month and a half of 2025, several dozen persons were detained upon their return to Belarus, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. In early February, it became known that six persons were detained from one regular bus at once. All the detainees were placed in a temporary detention facility in the city nearest to the customs, and some were placed under administrative arrest later on. The reason for the detention may be “extremist” reposts and subscriptions on social networks, photos from protests in cloud storage, donations, as well as Google search history. Additional checks at the border are also conducted with regard to persons who were previously detained at protest actions and were included in the “Besporyadki” (“Disorders”) database, and those who have not lived in Belarus for a long time. Those who are detained at a border checkpoint are usually tried for “spreading extremist materials.” In case the person is detained by the KGB and the interrogation takes place in Minsk, a protocol is drawn up against them for “minor hooliganism”. Alternatively, the detained is immediately placed in a pre-trial detention center within the framework of a criminal case initiated against him/her. “Viasna” knows of cases where a person had crossed the border many times over the past few years and had never faced additional checks, had not been detained during his stay in Belarus, but was eventually detained when he tried to enter Belarus immediately after passport control. The situation is constantly changing, and there are no guarantees that a person who previously entered and left without problems will not come to the attention of the security officers due to some new facts of his protest activity in the past, human rights activists reiterate. Detention after returning to Belarus does not necessarily take place immediately at the border. The security officers come for some persons after a few days, or call and ask them to come for “a conversation”. Interrogations of Ukrainian citizens at the border continue as well. “Conversations” with them may take from a few minutes to several hours. Other passengers of regular buses have to wait for several hours for their return.

On February 10, the trial of Tatsiana Frantskevich, the mother of political prisoner Aliaksandr Frantskevich, and Natallia Labatsevich, the aunt of Aliaksandr Frantskevich and the mother of former political prisoner Ilya Labatsevich, began. They are accused of facilitating extremist activities. The sisters were detained on July 19, 2024, in Navapalotsk, when they brought a parcel to Aliaksandr. The case is being considered by the Vitsebsk Regional Court.

Aliaksandr Frantskevich will be tried again for malicious disobedience to the administration of the colony on February 27. Six months ago, he was already sentenced to a year of imprisonment under this charge. He was held incommunicado for several months. In September 2022, Frantskevich was sentenced to 17 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and a fine of 700 basic units (22,400 Belarusian rubles or more than 6.5 thousand euros). On appeal, the term was reduced by three months.

Former political prisoner Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk confirmed at a press conference in Vilnius that political prisoners released under presidential pardon are being forced to sign documents on secret cooperation with the Belarusian special services. She herself was forced to sign such a document. The document stated that she promised to report on the sentiments of the convicts and transmit other information to the authorities. Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk stated that she was disavowing the papers she had signed and called on other former prisoners to do so. She also said, that political prisoners are also being forced to write petitions for clemency. “They start torturing, torturing, torturing a person. And at some point, they offer to write a petition for clemency. If a person doesn’t give up, they will continue to torture him,” she said. When a person does decide to ask for clemency, they can record a propagandistic interview with him. According to Sharenda-Panasyuk, political prisoners are subjected to both physical and psychological torture. For example, journalist Katsyaryna Andreeva was severely beaten by servicemen Chorny, Gancharou, Alekhin and Zyuzin. Palina called the correctional colony No. 24 nothing but a knacker’s yard, and the penitentiary system – the Belarusian Gulag. Victoryja Kulsha, Alena Hnauk and Volha Mayorava remain in the correctional colony No. 24. Victoryja’s situation is the worst and she may die in custody, Sharendo-Panasyuk feared. In matters of national policy, Belarus, according to Sharendo-Panasyuk, is completely subordinate to the Kremlin. Russia is actively involved in the suppression of the Belarusian national movement, and Russian curators run a group of Lukashist propagandists who interview political prisoners.

Human rights activists report that false information about a bot allegedly created by BYSOL solidarity foundation is being spread in chat rooms. Andrei Stryzhak, co-founder and head of BYSOL,emphasized that it does not use bots. For help, the telegram contact @help_bysol should be addressed. The security servicemen are also writing Belarusians false messages on behalf of BYSOL and are trying to get information from them about the Belaruski Gajun monitoring project. The emergence of a fake bot was also reported by the editorial staff of the Flagshtok media. It was emphasized that Flagshtok does not use bots to contact readers. The bot was probably created by special services to de-anonymize users associated with the media.

In 2023-2024, 759 attacks/threats were recorded against professional and civil media and editorial offices of traditional and online media. This was stated in a special report prepared by the Justice for Journalists foundation and the Belarusian Association of Journalists. It is noted that 41 media workers are currently behind bars in Belarus. Starting from the end of 2023, the authorities have been taking away local Internet domains from non-governmental media, which leads to a loss of audience. According to the Belarusian Association of Journalists, about 400 journalists have left Belarus since 2020. The rest are working underground or have changed their profession.

Veteran opposition politician and former presidential candidate Mikalai Statkevich has been imprisoned for more than four years. He was detained on May 31, 2020. Statkevich is held in solitary confinement. His cell is measured one by three meters. He is held incommunicado. The last letter from him came to his wife Maryna Adamovich on February 9, 2023. “I believe that he will survive. I am waiting for him every minute,” she said.

Belarusians with a second citizenship are no longer allowed to enter the country on foreign documents. Previously, those with two nationalities could choose which passport to use to enter Belarus. They used this opportunity to cross the border on their cars with European registration and register temporary import on them, like other foreigners do. This was convenient, because if they would enter using a Belarusian passport, they would have to leave a financial guarantee for the EU registered car, which constituted 100% of the amount of the car customs clearance. Now the practice has changed. About a month ago, the border guards were sent instructions for internal use, which forbids persons with Belarusian citizenship to pass through the border with a passport other than the Belarusian one.

On February 11, the Minsk Regional Court sentenced 60-year-old Natallia Ladutska to four years of imprisonment and a fine of 600 basic units (24 thousand rubles, around seven thousand Euro). Ladutska was detained on January 23, 2024, during a large-scale raid by the Belarusian special services in the case of the IneedHelpBYinitiative, which helped Belarusian political prisoners. She was accused of facilitating “extremist activities.” Before that, the initiative was recognized as an “extremist formation.” Ladutska was recognized as a political prisoner.

Vasil Dzemidovich, a 72-year-old pensioner from Nyasvizh, is being prosecuted for insulting a government official. This will be his ninth trial. It will begin on February 20 in the Smalyavichi district court. In September 2022, the Leninski district court of Hrodna sentenced him to six years in a high-security colony, a fine and compensation in the amount of almost 33 thousand Belarusian rubles (around 9.6 thousand Euro) for “organizing mass riots” and “insulting” Lukashenka, a government official and a judge. Later, Dzemidovich was sentenced to another six months of imprisonment for “insulting” a government official. In May 2023, he was again sentenced to two and a half years in a high-security colony for “insulting” a government official and a judge. In total, Dzemidovich was sentenced to seven years of imprisonment. The outcome of the last three trials is unknown. Dzemidovich has been in custody for almost three years. Since he was included in the list of “terrorists”, it is prohibited to send him money transfers.

The authorities keep lists of persons in certain professions who have been found to be disloyal to the regime. The lists of athletes and former employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs fell into the hands of the “Cyber Partisans”. The documents demonstrate that the authorities not only dismiss people for political reasons but also monitor where they got a job and whether they left the country. These lists also prove that only a few police officers, who were found to be “disloyal”, resigned voluntary. Most of them were fired “for absenteeism.” The most common wording for dismissal was “he held oppositional views, did not support the current government.” Among other reasons were: “he was criticized twice for cowardice in carrying out official duties to detain citizens from white-red-white [protest]actions”, “called on colleagues to resign from the Department of Internal Affairs”, “his close family members did not support the current government”, “participated in protest actions”, “insisted on dismissal”, “did not agree with the current political situation in the country”, “has ”likes” in social networks of white-red-white activity”, “voted for an alternative candidate during the presidential elections”, “disagreed with the election results”.

Minsk resident Aliaksandr Ziyazetdinau, who had already paid a large compensation for the donation, was sentenced to nine years. Ziyazetdinau was detained in the summer of 2022, and in the fall he was sentenced to three years of imprisonment for donating BYPOL around 800 USD six months before the organization was recognized as an “extremist” formation. The court considered his actions to be financing extremist activities. A year later, propaganda showed a video with his participation, in which he said that he had written a petition for clemency. The video stated that Ziyazetdinau “was not completely honest with the investigation and hid five cryptocurrency payments worth 16 thousand rubles (around 4,5 thousand Euro).”Ziyazetdinov tried to resolve the situation through compensation, he exchanged and transferred about 30 bitcoins to medical institutions specified by the authorities, but a new criminal case was opened against him on charges of “financing a terrorist organization.” As it became known recently, in March 2024, he was sentenced to nine years of imprisonment.

The Ministry of Information continues to replenish the list of “extremist materials.” In late January and early February, a documentary film and a book about the Stalinist repressions were included in it. Maryja Bulavinskaya’s documentary “The Forest”,released in September 2024, was about the executions carried out by the NKVD in the 1930s in the Navabelitski forest near Homel. The book by journalist Marat Haravy, «The NKVD executed people in Kurapaty…”, released in 2019, also recognized as “extremist”, included 17 essays about the tragedy in Kurapaty, as well as more than 100 photographs and drawings. According to experts, the topic of Stalinist repressions in Belarus has been tabooed since Aliaksandr Lukashenka came to power.

Transparency International, a non-governmental organization, has published its annual corruption perception rating. In 2024, Belarus lost four points in the rating. Belarus is currently ranked 114^th out of 180 studied countries. The rating for each country was collected from at least three sources, and a total of 13 different studies and surveys on corruption, conducted, among other, by the World Bank and the World Economic Forum, were analyzed. The rating considered the public’s perception of bribery, the distribution of public funds, the use of officials’ positions for their own gain, nepotism, the availability of information about government activities, laws against corruption, and other indicators. It is perception that was measured, as corruption is an illegal phenomenon, and statistics about it become known only if it is exposed and prosecuted.

In her statement about a release of a U.S. citizen and two other prisoners from prison in Belarus on February 12, the U.S. Ambassador to Lithuania, Cora McDonald, called the released persons “hostages,” and their release a “great success” of the administration of the U.S. President. She did not specify the name of the U.S. citizen. Together with him, a journalist of the Belarusian service of the Radio Liberty network, Andrei Kuznechyk, was released, as well as Alena Maushuk, a political activist and a mother with many children. The condition for her pardon and release was her departure from Belarus. The release of these prisoners may be related to Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s desire to win the favor of U.S. President Donald Trump, experts comment. The president of Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty Stephen Kapus commented on the news of Kuznechyk’s release: “This is a joyful day for Andrei, his wife and their two young children. After more than three years apart, this family is back together thanks to President Trump. We are also grateful to Secretary Rubio and his team, as well as to the Government of Lithuania for their support.” “We hope that our journalist Ihar Losik will also be released,” Kapus said, adding that the corporation is counting on the actions of the Donald Trump administration in this direction. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement in this regard in which he called for the release of nearly 1,300 political prisoners who remain in jail across Belarus.

The UN Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus stated in its first report published on February 14, that the government of Belarus has committed widespread human rights violations against the country’s civilian population, some amounting to crimes against humanity, as part of a brutal effort to quash all opposition to the rule of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. Among the most egregious violations documented are arbitrary arrests and detention on politically motivated grounds, which have become a fixture of the tactics of Belarusian authorities. The report found that men and women in detention had been routinely subjected to torture and ill-treatment, including beatings, electric shocks and threats to rape not only detainees but their partners as well. Security forces displayed marked brutality towards LGBTIQ+ individuals, using physical violence and dehumanizing language. The report, the Group’s first to the Human Rights Council since it was established in April 2024, said the violations had occurred in the context of broader efforts to keep Lukashenka in power. The Group of Experts reiterated the importance of judicial and non-judicial accountability. Identifying and prosecuting perpetrators of human rights violations and crimes against humanity is key to ending Belarus’s culture of impunity and integral for the victims to receive justice, its members underlined.

On February 10, Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated during a meeting with religious representatives that the recent electoral campaign in the country went exactly as he had hoped – “quietly and peacefully.” Reflecting on the coronavirus pandemic and the 2020 protests, he mentioned that “time has put everything in its place”: “And now we understand who financed it, how much was allocated to this infection, where it came from, and how many people died. And it has been acknowledged that the only correct path was the one we chose together.

Despite state media and propagandists still praising Lukashenka’s “victory” in the so-called elections, they are also urging vigilance and caution, warning against becoming complacent. For instance, Andrei Mukavozchyk cautioned that the “flow of disinformation” directed at the Union State would only intensify. He argued that all Belarusians connected in any way to ideology should engage in counter-propaganda “not from 9 to 6 while sitting at work, but around the clock, 24/7, tirelessly, hour after hour, with no rest.” According to him, “every responsible citizen” should be involved in ideological work.

On the same day, pro-regime public figures Vadzim Hihin, Siarhei Lushch, and propagandist Ryhor Azaronak met in Melitopol with the Kremlin-appointed administration of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhya region in Ukraine. In his statement, collaborator leader Yevhen Balytskyi did not specify whom the guests represented. Among other matters, they discussed the “parliamentary dimension of cooperation” and the participation of representatives from the Zaporizhzhya region in the XII Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus, which will be held in June 2025 in Nizhny Novgorod. Both sides noted the “growing level of cooperation between the Republic of Belarus and Zaporizhzhya region, as well as the potential for implementing joint projects within the framework of the Union State.”

On February 11, Aliaksandr Lukashenka received a report from Valiantsin Rybakou, Belarus’ representative to the United Nations. Lukashenka asked, “If you have such impressions and relevant information. And what is happening in the UN? We must give credit, Donald [Trump] has seriously shaken up some international structures. How has this been reflected in the UN?” Rybakou responded that it was still difficult to assess how the recent U.S. decisions to withdraw from various UN bodies would affect the organization, but predicted a “negative effect.”

Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, propaganda media extensively discussed the future of Ukraine and its relations with the U.S. On February 11, Yury Uvarau, a columnist for Minskaya Prauda, openly referred to Ukraine as a “colony”: “It is not hard to assume that in the event of Ukraine’s division, the ‘president’ of the remnants of the colony will be appointed in the White House. However, Russia’s position will be of great importance, so there will be no talk of candidates cozying up to neo-Nazis. Most likely, a figure will be needed who can find common ground with Moscow, while remaining fully under Washington’s control.” On the same day, pro-regime expert Aliaksandr Tsishchanka wrote in an article for SB. Belarus Today that Trump’s true goal was allegedly to “force the EU and NATO to get more involved in the conflict to increase Europe’s dependence on the U.S.” He also did not hold back in his expressions: “…in reality, they [the Ukrainians] are dying for the interests of American oligarchs in trenches dug on land owned by American corporations. Ukraine has long been standing on foreign soil. It’s a virtual state. A geographical deepfake.” Head of the pro-regime Union of Journalists Andrei Kryvasheyeu on the ONT talk show “Objectively” stated that the Americans will not give Russia the east of Ukraine because of its “huge resources,” but on the other hand, they allegedly do not want to “hand over the rest of Ukraine” to Europe in order not to make the EU stronger through Ukrainian energy. According to the propagandist, “Trump has already shown” that the EU “needs to be robbed, humiliated, and squeezed.” Vadzim Hihin, in turn, once again tried to argue that the Lukashenka regime should be involved in the resolution of the “Ukrainian crisis” at the negotiating table, as the West had declared Belarus a co-aggressor and imposed sanctions.

On February 10, propagandist Andrei Mukavozchyk in his article for SB. Belarus Today, written in response to the Baltic States’ disconnection from the Soviet-era grid’s electricity transmission lines (BRELL), predicted “slavery” and “complete dependence on Europe and Brussels” for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Echoing him, newly appointed columnist for Minskaya Prauda Pavel Karnazytski simultaneously called the three countries “Baltic dwarfs” and further insulted them: “Now all the methods of Goebbels are in use for the ‘true Aryans’ there. Crooks in Europe value those who cannot count their money, because they are the easiest to swindle, and they can expect gratitude from deceived investors. Under the guidance of their big friends from Brussels, the Baltics have voluntarily swindled themselves, losing cheaper energy sources than the EU market can offer them. Now, they will also pay transit fees to Warsaw to receive the right kilowatts.” Meanwhile, Andrei Kryvasheyeu on ONT also criticized the Baltic republics for deciding to leave BRELL, predicting they will face a future as a “spiteful peripheral part of the EU” and a “subsidized loss-making province” where NATO contingents will be stationed.

Notably, officials controlled by the regime are actively promoting the idea of increasing Chinese presence in various sectors of life in Belarus and Russia. Belarusian embassy staff member in Russia Aliaksandr Shpakouski stated in his Telegram channel that President of China Xi Jinping will attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, 2025. Expanding on this, he predicted that in the coming years, “Trumpists” would attempt to “destroy Russian-Chinese cooperation, bribing, threatening, and playing on contradictions with the use of the fifth column in China and Russia.” He emphasized that for Belarus, “preserving and developing Russian-Chinese partnership is also crucial, as Minsk is building its own alliance strategies in this triangle with both Moscow and Beijing. His colleague Piotr Piatrouski lamented that his trip to Moscow left him with an impression of an intensifying “Trump euphoria.” “From every speaker and most experts, there was a sense of hope for Trump. Everyone forgot about the goals of the Special Military Operation, the denazification, demilitarization, and sanctions.” He believes that Trump aims to undermine the “peaceful Chinese initiative,” which would launch a process of moving away from Western centrism, and “drive a wedge between China and Russia, suck out resources, and shift the burden of ensuring peace onto European allies.” In light of this, he addresses the Belarusians: “If some factions in Moscow want to run and bow down, signing agreements on Ukraine, then we must defend our interests. And these are security on the southern borders, the return of our property in Ukraine, and ensuring the transit of our products through Ukrainian ports.”

On February 15-16, representatives of the Russian propaganda channel Russia Today organized a free media school for employees of Lukashenka-controlled media outlets in Minsk. One of the lecturers was an active promoter of the “Russian world” ideas, Konstantin Pridybaylo, who, among other things, called Belarusians “stupid” and advocated for the physical elimination of Lukashenka’s opponents.