Belarus Review by iSANS — February 16, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, no drone flights were recorded in Belarusian airspace between 9 and 15 February.

On 10 February, as part of the combat readiness inspection of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (AF RB) ongoing since 16 January and overseen by State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich, four formations were involved simultaneously: from the Ground Forces – the 11th and 120th Mechanized Brigades; from the Special Operations Forces – the 38th Air Assault Brigade and the 103rd Airborne Brigade. Details were reported by state media.

The new phase of the inspection was commented on by State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich. According to him, it is characterized by “continued surprise, comprehensiveness and breadth of assigned tasks, as well as scale.” Whereas previously one military unit was inspected at a time, now four are being checked simultaneously.

During the inspection, servicemen practiced bringing units assigned to the immediate reaction forces to combat readiness under peacetime staffing levels. The inspection also included checks of loading material resources and weapons, as well as marches to designated areas, including near the state border.

Units occupied fortified areas in the Gomel, Zhabinka and Valozhyn districts. There they practiced countering enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups and conducting defensive operations, after which they returned to training grounds for evaluation exercises in fire and physical training.

On 11 February, Valfovich added that “the inspection is proceeding very intensively.” Units involved marched “virtually all night” to task areas at distances ranging from 100 km to over 350 km. He described the phase launched on 10 February as the “main” stage. “A snap inspection is also a set of deterrence measures demonstrating that, under certain conditions, we are ready to defend our homeland,” he concluded.

On 10 February, under the chairmanship of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, a meeting was held on equipping the Armed Forces and developing the defence-industrial complex. According to Lukashenka, the key issue was: “How is the creation of ammunition production capacities progressing? Next year, even by the end of this year (2026), we must have our own ammunition. High-demand ammunition.” By “high-demand ammunition,” he referred to 122 mm rockets for the Grad multiple launch rocket system and 152 mm artillery shells.

He stated that due to the “build-up of the military component along our borders, especially from Poland,” and taking into account the war in Ukraine, he had decided to strengthen Belarus’s defence capability on a larger scale. Combat experience shows that ammunition expenditure is very high. Therefore, it was previously decided to establish domestic production of artillery ammunition of various calibres. Summing up, Lukashenka stated that all artillery ammunition can be produced in the required quantities and “properly stored” in warehouses.

In comments to state media, Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry Dzmitry Pantus stated that “everything possible and impossible” is being done to complete “two [production] projects at once” by the end of 2026. One is expected to launch in summer, the second by the end of the year. No details were disclosed. However, one of the projects is known to be the ammunition production plant in the Slutsk district (CJSC “Plant of Casing Products”). According to BELPOL, the planned production capacity is: under a two-shift regime – 120,000 (122 mm) and 180,000 (152 mm) shells annually; under a three-shift regime – 180,000 and 270,000 respectively. The second production project remains unspecified.

On 12 February, the State Authority for Military Industry reported that the first live-fire launches from the Pechora surface-to-air missile system (the export designation of the Soviet S-125), modernised with the participation of specialists from JSC “ALEVKURP,” were successfully conducted on the territory of a foreign customer. The country was not disclosed.

The modernisation involved supplying an upgrade package (a set of radio-technical devices and modules), with work carried out on the customer’s territory. As a result, detection range, engagement range and altitude, electronic counter-countermeasures capability, and other parameters were significantly improved. An agreement with an unnamed customer has already been reached to supply “several modernisation packages” and to expand cooperation.

On 15 February, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya took part in the panel discussion “Belarus in the Spotlight” at the Munich Security Conference. Other participants included Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, U.S. Senator Peter Welch, and the Berlin-based Centre for East European Research and International Studies (ZOiS) Director Gwendolyn Sasse. According to Tsikhanouskaya’s Office, she outlined three priorities for international policy toward Belarus: securing the release of political prisoners without legitimising the regime; taking into account the risk of further loss of sovereignty through military integration with Russia; and strengthening support of Belarusians in exile. She stressed that “every release saves a life,” but that “humanitarian results must not be confused with political ‘normalisation’.” According to her, “around 300 people have already been released,” while “at least a thousand remain behind bars,” and “new people are detained instead of those released.” She further argued that “the Belarus issue must be part of all regional security negotiations,” linking Lukashenka’s continued rule to persistent security threats to the EU. Speaking about Belarusians abroad, she described them as “people under political persecution” and called for ensuring stable legal status and practical integration opportunities, including “travel documents, access to education, employment and banking services.”

On 16 February, Alilaksandr Lukashenka met with State Secretary of the Union State, Russian politician Sergey Glazyev. The discussion focused on preparations for the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State and coordination of its agenda. According to Lukashenka, the session will take place on 26 February. He stated that the sides must resolve “a host of problems” beforehand to approach the meeting with maximally aligned positions. In addition to preparations for the Council, Lukashenka addressed bilateral economic integration, defence and military-industrial coordination, and plans to discuss with Vladimir Putin Belarus’s participation in the U.S.-initiated “Peace Council,” aiming to develop a “unified” position with Russia.

Lukashenka emphasised the inseparability of the Belarus–Russia alliance, stating that “there is no force capable of separating Belarus from Russia and Russia from Belarus,” and that circumstances have bound the two countries together “for many decades and centuries.” He asserted that attempts by external actors to “drive a wedge” between Minsk and Moscow would fail. Lukashenka also framed the partnership as pragmatic and reinforced by circumstance: “We are seriously committed to working with Russia to the extent that Russia is capable of doing so. You understand better than anyone that we have drifted very far apart on certain issues. And in the economy. Well, fortunately, in politics and diplomacy, life has forced us to work together in the military-industrial complex and in the defence sector. Although I have always suggested not to lose sight of this issue. There were times when the Russian leadership and the military thought: ‘Well, what about Belarus? We can manage without Belarus.’ Time has shown that we have very few friends. And we cannot do without each other. Thank God that time has put us all in our place,” Lukashenka said.

Against the backdrop of Minsk–Washington contacts, Russian officials publicly reinforced signals against any “break” in the alliance. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin urged Belarusian authorities “in a friendly manner” to “remain vigilant” in potential dealings with the United States and to consider alliance’s interests. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, in response to a question from Sputnik Belarus, stated that Moscow would not “sit idly by” in response to Western attempts to “pull Belarus away” from Russia. In November 2025, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had also spoken critically about dialogue between Minsk and Washington.

On 11 February, Lukashenko’s press secretary Natalia Eismont announced that he would not attend the first in-person meeting of the “Peace Council”, established by Donald Trump, to be held in the United States on 19 February. She cited “issues that cannot be postponed” and logistical difficulties related to sanctions and EU airspace closures. Belarus will be represented by Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov. Notably, Russia will not be represented; Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow does not require Minsk to represent its position at the meeting.

On 5–6 February, Director for Continental Europe at the French Foreign Ministry Brice Roquefeuil visited Minsk at the invitation of the Belarusian side. He met with Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Sekreta and held consultations with representatives of the expert community. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry stated that it maintains regular working contacts with France and other Western states, noting that such dialogue is often confidential.

On 13 February, it was announced that Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchin had signed a resolution to open a Belarusian embassy in Oman. The government stated that a permanent diplomatic presence would enhance political, trade, economic, and investment cooperation, facilitate industrial partnerships, and help explore new markets. It was also noted that a presence in Oman could strengthen Minsk’s position in that direction and facilitate engagement with African countries and Yemen. Currently, Belarus’s Ambassador to Egypt, Yauheni Sabaleuski, is concurrently accredited to Oman. On 10 February, he presented his credentials to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq.

The hybrid crisis on the Belarus–Lithuania border remains in a positional phase. Vilnius continues to record smuggling activity while seeking to preserve the political and sanctions framework in the absence of a formal intergovernmental dialogue.

On 9 February, the Lithuanian Border Guard Service reported a 2026 record of seven interceptions of airborne smuggling in a single day. Since the beginning of the year, more than 40 incidents and 23 detentions have been recorded. On 13 February, authorities reported the interception of a meteorological balloon carrying 1,520 packs of cigarettes. Smuggled cigarettes (2,500 packs) were also discovered on a bus arriving from Belarus. On 14 February, a large consignment (25,000 packs), allegedly dropped from a freight train, was seized. Smuggling with the use of meteorological balloons from Belarus was also recorded in Poland last week.

At the same time, Lithuanian domestic politics has seen continued debate over the future course toward Minsk. On 10 February, the leader of the ruling party, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, stated that dialogue with Minsk would be possible only after the extension of EU sanctions and emphasised that security takes precedence over economic considerations. On 11 February, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stressed that discussing policy toward Minsk does not imply its revision, and that the sanctions course remains in place. On 13 February, Speaker of the Seimas Juozas Olekas linked the possibility of economic ties with Belarus to “peace in Ukraine” and to conditions related to balloons, trucks, and political prisoners.

On 14 February, at the Munich Security Conference, Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry urged the United States to “break the cycle of thaws and repression” and not to exchange sanctions leverage for the release of detainees.

The Lithuanian government also announced continued funding for its legal strategy in arbitration over transit issues, allocating additional resources for lawyers in the case against Belaruskali (with claims amounting to approximately €12 billion). Against this backdrop, the Lithuanian transport association Linava stated that Minsk is allegedly seeking to retroactively legalise the detention of Lithuanian trucks through storage agreements and is increasing financial pressure on carriers.

Between 9 and 15 February, no new substantive statements from Minsk regarding Lithuania were issued. Belarus’s position has not been updated or clarified and remains framed as readiness for dialogue, provided there is confirmation from the Lithuanian side.

On the Belarus–Poland border, no attempts of illegal border crossings by irregular migrants were recorded throughout the week (according to the Polish Border Guard Service). At the same time, the Polish authorities assess the flights of meteorological balloons as constituting both smuggling activity and elements of hybrid action. This was stated on 9 February by Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. According to his assessment, Polish services are effectively coping with the problem.

In 2025, the courts sentenced several dozen minors under criminal charges, which are often used to prosecute for political reasons, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre noted with reference to the report of the Supreme Court. According to the report, last year 16 minors were convicted for “active participation in actions that grossly violate public order”; six minors – for “promoting extremism”; five minors – for “inciting hostility”; four minors – for “acts of terrorism”; four minors – for “insulting Lukashenka”; three minors – for “abuse of state symbols”; one minor – for “violence or threat of violence against an official”; and one minor — for “participating in an armed formation or armed conflict on the territory of a foreign state, military actions, recruitment or training for such participation”.

In 2025, at the initiative of the prosecutor’s office, about 1,300 resources were recognised as “extremist materials”. The data were presented on 13 February at a meeting of the Board of the Prosecutor General’s Office. As reported, about 78 million rubles were recovered at the request of prosecutors in the framework of civil proceedings. In 2025, compared to 2024, the number of registered crimes decreased by 12.7%. The number of serious and especially serious crimes decreased by 3.4%, less serious crimes by 13.7%, non-serious crimes by 17.2%, and corruption crimes by 18.2%. The number of crimes committed by minors decreased by 26.2%.

In the Hrodna region alone, 384 criminal cases were initiated in 2025 under charges of “extremist orientation”. According to Yauhen Shcharbak, First Deputy Prosecutor of the Hrodna region, 68 cases against 71 people were sent to the courts last year, and 606 such cases have been referred to the courts since 2020. 148 Belarusians were put on the wanted list for protest charges. The regional prosecutor’s office sent 156 applications to the courts for recognising websites, pages and accounts in social networks as “extremist materials”. They were all granted.

Pavel Kuntsevich, a political prisoner with many children, who in 2024 was sentenced to four years of imprisonment on charges of calling for sanctions, was sentenced to an additional eight months of imprisonment for the alleged malicious disobedience to the colony administration. Pavel was serving his sentence in penal colony No. 15 in Mahileu. After his second sentence, he was transferred to colony No. 8 in Orsha.

Security forces broke into the “Parason” creative space in Minsk on 10 February. Arrests and interrogations took place. As it became known to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, at least three people arrested in the “Parason” space are being held in Akrestsina Detention Centre. It is not known what the detainees are accused of. The “Parason” website states that every week there are “folk craft courses and lectures with a wide variety of guests”. “We talk in Belarusian about history, cinema, theatre and other interesting things from the humanitarian world,” the webpage says.

Vyacheslav Papsho, a Lithuanian citizen who was released on pardon and deported from Belarus on 13 December 2025, was added to the “terrorist list”. Several people convicted on charges of inciting hostility and calling for action against national security were added to the list besides him. There are 1,412 people on the list now, 673 of whom are Belarusians.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs added 37 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among others, the list includes a citizen of Ukraine, Maria Misyuk, a former political prisoner who was released on a pardon last November along with 30 other Ukrainian citizens. There are now 6,298 names on the list.

Some political prisoners were given a condition at the time of  their release to leave Belarus within 48 hours and were threatened that otherwise a new criminal case will be initiated against them, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. In early February, human rights defenders reported that political prisoners in the colonies were being questioned as to whether they wanted to leave the country or remain in Belarus after their release. Experts interpret this development as a possible sign of preparations for the release of the next group of political prisoners. Previosly, Lukashenka, suggested that other states were welcome to take as many prisoners from Belarus as they wanted. The Lukashenka regime has been widely criticised for deporting all previously released political prisoners in 2024-2025, not giving them any choice, depriving most of the forcibly exiled individuals of their passports, and not providing them with official documents confirming their pardon.

Syarhei Franchuk, the cousin of Vadzim Kabanchuk, representative of the United Transitional Cabinet for Defence and former Deputy Commander of the Kalinouski Regiment fighting on the side of Ukraine, fully served his sentence and was released. On 28 April 2023, he was sentenced to three years of imprisonment under several charges. In July 2023, another case was opened against him on charges of insulting the president and he was sentenced to an additional six months of imprisonment. He was released on 20 January. It is known that he has already left Belarus and is safe.

Political blogger Pavel Spiryn was released from prison at the end of December 2025 after more than five years of imprisonment. In February 2021, he was sentenced to four and a half years of imprisonment for inciting hostility and discord. In November 2024, Spiryn was tried again on charges of malicious disobedience to the colony administration. He was sentenced to an additional year of imprisonment. After his release, Spiryn left Belarus and is currently in Lithuania.

The Minsk City Court convicted Mikita Barazhkou, the former press attaché of the Dynamo hockey club and the son of the ex-editor of “Pressball” sports media, on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”. Hundreds of people detained in the “Belarusian Hajun case” are being tried on this charge, but it is unclear whether Barazhkou is linked to this case. He was sentenced to a restriction of liberty without referral to a correctional institution.

A four-room apartment, in which three-time Olympic medalist Aliaksandra Herasimenya was registered, was auctioned off. Information about the auction is available on the website of the state enterprise “Belyurobespechenie”. The apartment was registered in the name of a Herasimenya relative. Aliaksandra herself, her husband and daughter were registered there. “The apartment is not my property, nor the garage and everything inside the apartment and the garage. This is my close relative’s apartment, and in addition to my husband and me, my minor daughter is registered there, so I do not know how they can take it away. But then, there are no laws in our country,” Herasimenya commented. The apartment was seized after a criminal case was initiated against Herasimenya and Aliaksandr Apeikin for calls for action against the national security of Belarus. Herasimenya moved to Lithuania in the autumn of 2020, where she became the head of the Belarusian Sports Solidarity Foundation (she later left this post), Apeikin became the executive director of the fund. In December 2022, she and Apeikin were sentenced in absentia to twelve years of imprisonment. Along with the apartment, money in Herasimenya’s accounts (more than 48,000 USD), a Land Rover car, her mobile phones, a parking space, a refrigerator, and a sound system were seized. In March 2022, Herasimenya’s house in Drozdy was seized.

The date of the trial of journalist Pavel Dabravolski became known. It will begin on 27 February in the Minsk City Court. Dabravolski left Belarus in 2021, but returned to Minsk in October 2024. In January 2025, he was detained. He is charged with high treason. Dabravolski is a former journalist with Naviny.by. He previously collaborated with various independent media. During the 2020 protests, he was detained and brought to administrative responsibility in connection with his professional activities.

In the new Corruption Perceptions Index — 2025 from Transparency International, Belarus was ranked below all of its neighbors, except Russia, and has secured a foothold in the bottom third of the world ranking. In five years, it has lost 16 points and more than 60 positions. Back in 2020, Belarus had 47 points and ranked 63^rd; after that the indicator decreased almost every year. In 2025, it dropped to 31 points. This dynamic shows that the state of public administration in Belarus is steadily deteriorating. Experts and business representatives have been increasingly negatively assessing the work of government institutions, primarily the transparency of decision–making, the independence of courts and the predictability of rules. As a result, Belarus is perceived as a more corrupt country not only in comparison with democratic states, but also in comparison with countries with a similar authoritarian governance model. The deterioration of Corruption Perceptions Index indicators is often accompanied by restrictions on civil rights and freedoms.

On 14 February, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk met with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. They discussed the situation of political prisoners in Belarus and international efforts to free them. Tsikhanouskaya stressed that it is important to support and continue the U.S.’ humanitarian steps, but at the same time it is necessary to achieve systemic changes in the current authorities’ policies. Special attention was paid to the problem of forced deportation of the released political prisoners. Tsikhanouskaya stressed that many of them were deprived of their documents and the opportunity to return home, and faced the risk of repeated persecution. She emphasised that the international community must strive not only for the release of people, but also for a complete cessation of repression.

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Best regards, iSANS team