Belarus Review by iSANS — February 02, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 26 January and 1 February, flights of eight unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarus’s airspace, including one Ukrainian drone. Duty aviation forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces were involved in interception activities.

Media outlet Flagstok reported that on 26 January a drone, reportedly a Russian Shahed, crashed without detonation in the town of Dobrush (Homel region). It was reported that local residents were prohibited from filming the fallen drone, which was subsequently removed from the site.

On 26 January, Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that the combat readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces would continue until spring. This means that inspection activities will be conducted at least until the end of February 2026.

The combat readiness inspection of the 19th Mechanised Brigade, which began on 23 January, continued during the reporting period, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence said. Servicemen carried out live-fire standard exercises using small arms and combat vehicle weapons during both daytime and night-time conditions. Tactical actions were practised in forested and marshy terrain, including detecting, blocking, and destroying a simulated enemy, as well as searching for and capturing targets and clearing strongpoints. Personnel also completed a physical fitness standard consisting of a five-kilometre unit march.

On 30 January, the inspection of the 19th Mechanised Brigade was completed. According to State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich, the brigade’s personnel successfully fulfilled the assigned tasks. Units practised all elements included in the inspection, such as transition to combat readiness, loading of equipment, and conducting a march to a training range, where control exercises in combat training subjects were carried out under difficult conditions. Valfovich stated that the results demonstrated by the servicemen were positive and added that inspections of other Belarusian Armed Forces units are planned. “Who will be next, I do not know myself,” he said.

On 26 January, a comprehensive combat readiness inspection began in the Belarusian Armed Forces under the leadership of the Chief of the General Staff, the Ministry of Defence reported. Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin said that the distinctive feature of the inspection is that, within the framework of preparing a trained reserve for the Belarusian Armed Forces, it is a planned activity for the Ministry, while for the inspected units it is unplanned. The inspection includes the call-up of reservists, removal of military equipment from storage, combat coordination training, and the deployment of units to concentration areas. Particular attention is to be paid to camouflage measures and countering drones. The final stage is to include comprehensive exercises practising new forms and methods of defensive and offensive operations with extensive use of drones and electronic warfare assets. Khrenin also stressed that this inspection and the one initiated on 16 January by the order of Lukashenka are parallel and unrelated activities.

During the week, the Ministry of Defence reported on the call-up of reservists from the reserve. The activities are being carried out by military commissariats in Brest region. Reservists are being sent to the 230th Abuz-Liasnousky Combined Arms Training Ground, where a reception point for personnel has been established and training activities are under way.

On 27 January, a planned inspection of territorial defence in Vileyka district began by the order of the head of the Minsk Regional Executive Committee, according to the media outlet Shlyakh Peramogi. The purpose of the inspection is to assess the readiness of territorial defence command bodies to carry out their assigned tasks. As part of the activities, a reception point for territorial defence personnel was deployed, where data verification, reception and distribution of personnel, and training sessions were conducted.

On 29 January, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported the arrival of another batch of Su-30SM2 fighter aircraft in Belarus. According to available information, two aircraft arrived from Russia at the Baranavichy airbase. With this delivery, the 61st Fighter Aviation Base now operates 16 Su-30 family aircraft, including eight Su-30SM and eight Su-30SM2 fighters.

From 30 January, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya began operating from Warsaw. According to Polish media, the decision to relocate was linked to a reduction in the level of security previously provided to Tsikhanouskaya in Lithuania. She stated that the changes affected not only her personal security but also the safety of office staff, which forced her to seek alternative solutions and reorganise operations. Part of the office staff will remain in Lithuania, while the rest will relocate to Poland. Tsikhanouskaya emphasised that she is grateful to Lithuania for its long-standing support for Belarusian democratic forces and said that she informed Western governments, as well as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, about the situation. The Belarusian House in Warsaw’s Saska Kępa district has been mentioned as a possible location for the office.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that nearly 800,000 Belarusians currently live outside the country. Referring to UN estimates for 2024, she noted that this amounts to approximately 8.7 per cent of Belarus’s population. According to Tsikhanouskaya, such large-scale emigration is a direct result of the Lukashenka regime’s policies, which have led to the separation of families and the forced departure of people who had no safe alternative. She stressed that return is only possible after the repression ends, political prisoners are released, and a genuine national dialogue begins, while Belarusians abroad remain an integral part of the country.

The Office of Tsikhanouskaya will appoint a new adviser, sociologist Hennadz Korshunau. The office reported that the former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus will be responsible for analytical support, expert assessment, strategy development, and cooperation with the expert community. Korshunov previously worked at the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, headed the Institute of Sociology in 2018–2020, and is the founder of the Belarusian Sociological Group.

On 1 February, Viktar Babaryka issued a programmatic statement and announced his return to political activity. The former political prisoner and one of the leaders of the 2020 election campaign stated that he currently does not have a fully developed plan of action but is beginning to move towards its formulation. In his statement, Babaryka emphasised that the key issue is not who holds power, but the creation of conditions under which Belarusians can independently determine the country’s future. He also pointed to Russia’s role in sustaining the Lukashenka regime and noted the lack of a shared vision of the future among Belarusians who do not accept the regime’s policies.

On 30 January, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on the country’s accession to the Board of Peace established on the initiative of Donald Trump, stating that the decision was not driven by financial considerations. Responding to remarks by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski about a possible USD 1 billion contribution, the official account of the Belarusian MFA said that Belarus had been invited “for its experience, resilience, and political will”. Earlier, Lukashenka stated that he did not intend to pay a membership fee and expected the Board of Peace to also address the war in Ukraine.

The Board of Peace published an official welcome message to Belarus as one of the organisation’s founding members. The post appeared on the Council’s official account on the social media platform X. In addition to Belarus, welcome messages were addressed to several dozen other states that accepted the invitation to join the new international structure, initially presented as a mechanism for resolving the conflict in Gaza.

On 30 January 2026, Vladimir Putin signed a law ratifying an agreement on changes to the terms of certain Russian–Belarusian intergovernmental agreements on state loans issued to Belarus. The document concerns the deferral of loan repayments. As previously stated by Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev, the total volume of deferred payments amounts to approximately USD 250 million, with repayments postponed to the period from 2032 to 2037. Earlier, on 27 January 2026, the Russian State Duma ratified this agreement. It was reported that the restructuring provides for an even redistribution of principal repayments over the period from 2032 to 2037. The agreement was signed in June 2025.

On 26 January 2026, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it had granted agreman for the appointment of Yury Seliverstov as Belarus’s ambassador to Russia. The Russian MFA stated that Seliverstov is expected in Moscow shortly to begin his diplomatic mission and expressed confidence in the continuation of the “positive dynamics” of bilateral cooperation and integration processes within the framework of the Union State and other formats.

On 30 January 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed his intention to appoint a special envoy on Belarus. He said that several diplomatic candidates would be discussed before a final decision is made and stressed the importance of supporting the efforts of Belarusian democratic forces.

On 30 January 2026, Zelenskyy ruled out the possibility of meeting with Vladimir Putin in Russia or Belarus, commenting on proposals for talks in Moscow. He stated that such “invitations” demonstrate Russia’s unwillingness to hold a meeting and emphasised that Ukraine is prepared for any genuine high-level negotiation format, but not in countries where one is the aggressor and the other is its partner.

The hybrid confrontation on the Belarus–Lithuania track has shifted back into a phase of heightened tension following the renewed appearance of meteorological balloon incidents. At the same time, the sanctions debate is becoming increasingly politicised, alongside growing pressure on Belarusians living in Lithuania.

On the night of 27–28 January, Lithuania recorded a mass incursion of meteorological balloons (up to 42 units), as well as an episode involving a drone and consignments of contraband. Operations at Vilnius Airport were temporarily restricted . On 31 January, meteorological balloons were also detected over western Lithuania, expanding the geographical scope of the problem.

Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a note of protest to Belarus and warned that restrictions on border crossings could be reintroduced in the event of repeat incidents . On 28 January, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys reaffirmed a focus on sanctions instruments and stated that talks with Minsk remain purely “hypothetical”. President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda linked any discussion of potash transit to the complete cessation of balloon launches and claimed a “tough” US reaction to the latest incident. Washington has not officially commented on the situation.

Against this backdrop, the European Commission signalled the possibility of visa restrictions for citizens of states from which “hybrid threats” originate, including Belarus. In response, Belarusian democratic forces rushed to state—citing contacts in Germany—that there are no plans to change the visa regime for Belarusians. No such assurances have been officially confirmed by EU institutions or national governments.

In addition, discussions in Vilnius have turned to further restrictions on Belarusian citizens, including proposals to strip them of voting rights in municipal elections. Changes are also being introduced to the charter of the Belarusian gymnasium in Vilnius that would effectively transform it into a Lithuanian school.

The Belarusian authorities have not officially commented on the incidents. There are no signs of a shift from Minsk’s stated position that the crisis should be resolved through diplomatic means. At the same time, the sides have yet to agree on a working channel for addressing the issue.

On 15 January, a propaganda story about the disclosure of a “network of radio spies” was released on Belarusian state television. According to the KGB, more than 50 people “siphoned off state secrets from the airwaves” in the interests of foreign intelligence services. The radio amateurs allegedly listened to conversations at military airfields, air defence positions, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the security service of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, including details of his movement routes. Seven people were taken into custody on charges of espionage and high treason, and the names of Mikita Krasko, Andrei Repetyi, and Vyacheslau Byanko were referred to. It is known that they were registered amateur radio operators with an official permit to operate on the air and with radio equipment. They were probably detained back in 2024, but the “amateur radio case” has been made public only now. According to Sviatlana Holovneva, a lawyer at “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, the release of the story indicated that the defendants will soon be charged and the case will be brought to court. They face a life sentence or the death penalty. Uladzimir Zhyhar, a representative of the BelPol organisation of former security officials, noted that neither the KGB nor the propagandists had provided any evidence that the defendants in the case posted, sold or transferred any secret information to foreign intelligence services. “All radio communications of law enforcement agencies are, of course, encrypted,” Zhyhar commented. “While closed channels can be hacked, there are doubts this was actually the case. It is more likely that amateur radio operators could listen to some unsecured channels, but what they heard there is unlikely to threaten state security,” he said.

Andrei Haurylyuk, the train dispatcher of the Minsk-hub section of the Transportation Management Centre, who was detained by the KGB, was suspected not only of cigarette smuggling and corruption, but also of high treason, the “Community of Railway Workers of Belarus” reported. They said that Haurylyuk has been in custody in the KGB detention centre for almost three months. Investigative actions were carried out against him. The Community suggested that during the investigation, investigators could discover “some kind of cooperation between the detainee and representatives of a foreign state.”

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre learned that a man was detained while crossing the Polish-Belarusian border on the weekend of 24-25 January. The circumstances of his detention and further fate have not been disclosed. “Viasna” stressed that phone checks, interrogations and detentions continue at Belarusian checkpoints. All detainees are placed in a temporary detention facility in the nearest city before the trial, after which they are fined and released, or subjected to administrative arrest. Some were also detained within the framework of criminal case investigation.

An off-site court hearing on the case of insulting Aliaksandr Lukashenka was held on the territory of the Brestskie Teplovye Seti enterprise. The sentence, as well as the punishment imposed, was not disclosed. As the Brest human rights activists noted, a photograph on the Telegram channel of the enterprise illustrating a news story about the trial, showed the defendantin handcuffs during the trial. Later the photo, in which this was clearly visible, was deleted. According to Article 14 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, “during the trial, defendants, as a general rule, should not be handcuffed or kept in cages or otherwise appear in court in a way that could indicate that they are dangerous criminals”. Human rights defenders pointed out that keeping a defendant in handcuffs also violates the presumption of innocence and the right to humane treatment.

On 28 January, the Minsk City Court began a trial in absentia in the case of five soldiers of the Kalinouski Regiment — Aliaksei Kavalchuk, Aliaksei Nazarau, Dzyanis Prokharau, Pavel Shurmey, and Vadzim Kabanchuk, representative for Defense and National Security in the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. They were charged with the creation of a criminal organisation, acts of terrorism, facilitation of terrorist activities, creation and leadership of a terrorist organisation, participation in a terrorist organisation, deliberate damage of communication routes, high treason, calls for measures harmful to national security, creation of an extremist formation, participation in an armed formation on the territory of a foreign state, and facilitation of extremist activity.

On 28 January, Belarusian human rights organisations published a statement recognising eight more people as political prisoners. They were detained or sentenced to imprisonment in connection with interaction with “extremist formations.” Human rights activists called for the release of these individuals, as well as all other political prisoners, and an end to political repression.

Political prisoner Mikola Dziadok, who was sentenced to five years of imprisonment, was supposed to be released from prison on 25 April 2025, but a new criminal case was initiated against him on charges of malicious disobedience to the prison administration. He now faces additional one to three years of imprisonment. In June 2025, Dziadok and many other political prisoners of Hrodna prison No. 1 were sent to a punishment cell. Dziadok was released from it only in September. In addition, he has been held in solitary confinement for more than a year.

The Investigative Committee announced the start of a special procedure (investigation in absentia) against Mikalai Tarasenka and requested him to attend the Department of the Investigative Committee for the Mahileu region. He is accused of slander, calls for sanctions against Belarus, slandering Lukashenka, and insulting Lukashenka.

After a brief thaw in the Ivatsevichi correctional colony No. 22, known as Volchji Nory (Wolf Holes), pressure on political prisoners resumed, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. Political prisoners were charged with violations for far-fetched reasons, given the status of “malicious violators”, and sent to a punishment cell. Among those sent to a punishment cell was Artyom Lyabedzka, the son of Anatol Lyabedzka, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s representative for constitutional reform and interparliamentary cooperation. According to “Viasna”, at least 59 political prisoners are currently serving their sentences in Wolf Holes.

Political prisoner Aliaksandr Kamlenak declared a hunger strike in the Ivatsevichi colony in connection with his placement in a punishment cell. The colony used to accommodate a branch of the Ivatsevichi College, where convicts could receive vocational training. However, this opportunity has recently become unavailable for political prisoners. Kamlenak wrote a complaint to the Ministry of Education. The letter was successfully passed to the outside world in a roundabout way, as the colony administration does not allow any complaints to be sent. The complaint was then delivered to the Ministry by people outside of the colony. This fact caused a sharp reaction by the administration. Kamlenak was called in for questioning and was demanded to explain how he had been able to send it out. He replied that he had sent the complaint via regular mail. After that, he was placed in a punishment cell. There, in protest, he went on a hunger strike and held it for 11 days. After that, he was transferred to the Navapalotsk colony No. 1, where he was immediately sent to a punishment cell.

On 30 January, Belarusian human rights activists recognised 50 people as former political prisoners. The persecution of these people was assessed as politically motivated in connection with their exercise of freedom of peaceful assembly, the right to association, and freedom of expression in relation to the announced results of the presidential election and other socially significant events.

On 30 January, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added twelve more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Eleven of them were convicted of “facilitating extremist activities”. There are now 6,226 names on the list.

Human rights defenders presented a public investigation into mass torture and inhuman treatment by security officers after the presidential “elections” in Belarus, which took place in the Partizanski police department of Minsk from 8 to 13 August 2020. This document is a continuation of the series of investigations by the International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus on the events of 2020. Earlier, investigations into torture in Frunzenski, Sovetski, Central, and Moscow police departments of Minsk and the Akrestsina temporary detention facility had been published. The testimonies of the victims testified to systematic violence: people were beaten and humiliated, kept in overcrowded and unsanitary rooms, deprived of sleep, water and basic medical care. They were threatened with murder, faced psychological violence, and then fabricated administrative protocols were drawn up to give the torture the appearance of “legitimate procedures”. “These were not individual excesses or mistakes of individual employees — this was a well-established mechanism of intimidation and suppression, in which human dignity was completely devalued. The document reveals what transpired behind closed doors at the district police station, which the victims still describe as some of the most terrifying days of their lives. The violence at the Partizansk Police Station was not random or spontaneous, but part of a coordinated practice of suppressing civil protest. Despite the scale and documented nature of the crimes, those responsible have not yet been brought to justice,” human rights activists stated in the report.

The KGB tried to recruit a well-known human rights defender Elena Tonkacheva and deported her after her refusal to cooperate. On 29 January, at about 10:30 a.m., Elena Tonkacheva went out to walk her dog and was detained by a tactical group. A search in her flat in Minsk continued until 14:00. The security officers were looking for “objects and documents related to the facilitation of extremist activities both inside and outside Belarus”. Tonkacheva was interrogated as a witness at the Minsk KGB office. The interrogation lasted until about 1:30 a.m. on 30 January. All this time, security officers were trying to persuade her to cooperate. “They were interested in human rights groups abroad and inside the country, and information about donor assistance. I refused to cooperate,” Tonkacheva said. On the morning of 30 January, she was informed that she would be deported to Russia. Tonkacheva has Russian citizenship, but has been living in Belarus for more than 35 years. “I was told that all the consequences are the result of my decision not to cooperate,” she commented.

In solidarity with the political prisoner journalist and media-manager Andrei Aliaksandrau, who was sentenced to 14 years of imprisonment in October 2022, the famous Canadian writer  Margaret Atwood, as well as Thurston Moore, musician and leading member the American rock band Sonic Youth, Nadya Tolokonnikova, activist and member of the Russian punk group Pussy Riot, and British writer and broadcaster Sir Trevor Phillips joined forces to read a poem written by Andrei in July 2021 in the detention centre. The poem, symbolically titled «#», was translated into English by poets Anna Kamar and John Farndon. The videos were recorded as part of a campaign launched on 27 January by the international organisation Index on Censorship.

On 3 February, the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission of the U.S. Congress will hold a hearing on the human rights situation in Belarus, political prisoners and the ongoing pressure on civil society. The commission noted that since 2020, the Belarusian authorities, led by Aliaksandr Lukashenka, have been conducting a large-scale campaign of repression against the democratic opposition. The increased pressure followed mass peaceful protests that broke out in response to the 2020 presidential election, which was accompanied by numerous reports of fraud. During the hearing, participants will discuss human rights violations in Belarus, the position of the U.S. government, and possible recommendations to Congress. The hearing will be held in person and will be open to members of Congress, Congress staff, the public and the media. The broadcast will be available on the Commission’s website.

Note from the editors: We do not provide links to publications in official and propagandistic sources belonging to the Lukashenka regime or affiliated with the regime. If you are interested in obtaining such a link for research or investigation purposes, please contact us at info@isans.org

Best regards, iSANS team