Belarus Review by iSANS — December 8, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 1 and 7 December at least eight Russian UAVs were detected in Belarusian airspace. No crashes or interceptions were reported. All observed flights occurred during the night of 6 December, coinciding with a massive Russian strike on Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia employed 653 UAVs of various types during that attack.

On 1 December, the Armed Forces of Belarus launched a new training year — “the year of combat cohesion” — as reported by the Ministry of Defence. Throughout the week under review, units and formations conducted scheduled combat-readiness training aimed at improving commanders’ practical skills and preparing personnel to operate under varied conditions. The programme included drills on protecting facilities and positions from air attacks, setting up personnel reception points, managing distribution and logistics, guarding and defending military compounds, and responding to alert signals. Such training cycles are held twice a year following the arrival of new conscripts.

On 3 December, the State Authority for Military Industry (SAMI) reported that its head, Dzmitry Pantus, took part in Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s official visit to Algeria. A key outcome was Pantus’s meeting with the Chief of the General Staff of Algeria’s National People’s Army, Said Chengriha, and the signing of an intergovernmental agreement on military-technical cooperation. A joint intergovernmental commission is expected to be established soon to identify priority areas and discuss concrete bilateral projects.

In Iran, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s anti-terrorism exercise “Sahand-2025” were held, according to the Iranian outlet Mehr. The drills, held from 1 to 5 December in East Azerbaijan Province, were organised by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Photos published by Iranian media indicated that Belarus participated with a detachment from the Special Rapid Response Unit of the Interior Troops.

On 5 December, the state newspaper SB. Belarus Segodnia published an interview with Andrei Yesis, commander of the Interior Troops’ 3rd Special-Purpose Brigade. He discussed the brigade’s development priorities, noting progress in the fields of UAV operations, counter-UAV capabilities, and the adoption of new weapons systems, including so-called “small artillery” (i.e. mortars). He did not disclose further details.

On 1 December 2025, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya paid a working visit to Norway, focused on support for the repressed, independent media, and long-term cooperation with Oslo. At the Storting, she met with Speaker Masud Gharahkhani and representatives of key political parties; an official cross-party group “For a Democratic Belarus” was established, bringing together eight MPs from five factions. In her meeting with Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, Tsikhanouskaya discussed regional security, the Ukraine negotiations and their implications for Belarus, the need for the withdrawal of Russian troops and nuclear weapons from Belarus, humanitarian releases of political prisoners, support for the International Accountability Platform for Belarus, and the work of democratic forces in international institutions. Talks with Minister of International Development Osmund Aukrust focused on expanding support for victims of repression, journalists, cultural and humanitarian initiatives, as well as simplifying legalisation procedures for Belarusians in Norway. In Oslo, Tsikhanouskaya also addressed a public event hosted by the Norwegian Helsinki Committee and presented awards to its partners for their support to Belarus.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka embarked on an extended international tour from 28 November to 7 December, covering Kyrgyzstan and the CSTO summit held there, Myanmar, Oman, Algeria, and again Oman.

During his working visit to Oman on 28 November – 2 December and 4–6 December, Lukashenka held a private meeting on 1 December at the residence of Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, where both sides confirmed progress on the bilateral roadmap (agreed in Minsk in October 2025) and major joint projects. The visit was framed by the slogan: “Belarus can produce a lot; Oman knows how to sell it.” On 5 December, Lukashenka and Abdelsalam Al Murshidi, President of the Oman Investment Authority (OIA), agreed to establish a joint investment fund in Minsk and a permanent OIA team in Belarus. Priority projects discussed included:

– a pulp-and-board plant in Belarus;

– the launch of a logistics hub in Oman for the re-export of Belarusian goods;

– a trilateral Belarus–Oman–Algeria fertiliser production project.

Further talks addressed Omani investment in Belarus’s agro-industrial sector (dairy industry, food and seafood trade), tourism, and sports infrastructure. The visit took place with the participation of Lukashenka’s elder and younger sons, Viktar and Mikalai, which observers link to the resolution of personal and informal matters alongside official negotiations.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s official visit to Algeria on 2–3 December — the first in the history of bilateral relations — was framed by Minsk as an expansion into North Africa. Against the backdrop of trade turnover rising to roughly USD 49 million in 2024 and a preceding business forum, both sides declared their intention to multiply economic exchange and, according to Lukashenka, reach at least USD 500 million “within the next one or two years.” The agenda focused on the supply and localisation of Belarusian machinery (MTZ, MAZ, Amkodor), cooperation in agriculture, baby food, powdered milk, halal meat, pharmaceuticals and information and communication technologies, as well as leveraging Algeria as a hub for Africa and the Mediterranean region. At the political level, the sides signalled openness to cooperation in the defence-industrial sphere — an area in which observers note a likely connection to arms dealer Habib Bukharuba (E-System Solutions, Dubai), previously involved in schemes linked to the Belarusian defence industry in Africa and Southeast Asia.

The political-diplomatic crisis around the Belarus–Lithuania border continued to deepen. Lithuania is seeking to internationalise the standoff and is consolidating a narrative portraying meteorological balloons and drones as a “hybrid attack” by the Lukashenka regime. Vilnius announced preparations to introduce a nationwide state of emergency as early as this week. The Lithuanian MFA issued a note of protest to the Belarusian chargé d’affaires, accusing Minsk of the “deliberate seizure” of EU hauliers and of threats to civil aviation, and threatened to escalate the transit-risk issue to the EU, international organisations and courts. Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, after consultations with US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale and State Department officials on 2–4 December, stated that Lithuania seeks US recognition of Minsk’s actions as a form of terrorism. In parallel, the Interior and Foreign Ministries prepared a package of response measures in Brussels — from personal sanctions against Belarusian officials to involving Frontex (3–4 December).

Minsk, for its part, avoided major moves this week, partly because Lukashenka and the foreign minister were abroad. On 1 December, Belarus accused Lithuania of violating its airspace with a “Western European UAV,” a claim Vilnius dismissed as “fake.” Meanwhile, Erlandas Mikėnas, president of Lithuania’s national road carriers’ association LINAVA, visited Belarus. His official meeting with the Belarusian Association of International Road Carriers BAMAP took place in Minsk, where the Belarusian side indicated that a meeting of deputy ministers was possible and that a recalculation of parking fees could be discussed — but only if a political dialogue emerges.

According to Lithuania’s Interior Ministry, 599 balloons and 197 drones crossed into Lithuanian airspace in 2025; 320 airplane flights were disrupted, 47,000 passengers were affected, and airports were shut for nearly 60 hours. Lithuanian Airports JSC estimates direct losses to Vilnius and Kaunas airports at over EUR 750,000.

By contrast, the situation on the Poland–Belarus border remains stable. According to Polish Border Guard data as of 8 December, no illegal crossings have been recorded for six consecutive days.

At the OSCE Ministerial Council in Vienna, Belarus was represented by a delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ihar Sekreta. In his 4 December plenary statement, Sekreta argued that European security is experiencing “the deepest crisis since Helsinki,” accused Western states of dismantling the architecture of indivisible security, politicising the OSCE, and attempting to turn it into a “political show.” Minsk proposed using Belarus and the Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security as a platform for broader dialogue on Europe’s security future, while opposing sanctions and the “isolation” of individual states. On 5 December, Belarus and Russia circulated a joint statement on the “structured dialogue,” demanding work in the format of all 57 participating States and rejecting “small-group” mechanisms. In its closing remarks, the Belarusian delegation sharply criticised statements by the “Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus,” calling them “politicised clichés,” and insisted that Belarus “does not need” external assistance in “preparing its democratic future.” On the margins of the Council, Sekreta held separate meetings with OSCE, IAEA and international anti-trafficking officials.

In parallel, a delegation of democratic forces, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was present in Vienna. On 4-5 December, at the invitation of the OSCE Chair-in-Office, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland Elina Valtonen, she took part in the ministerial meeting and a dedicated session on Belarus. In the main session, ministers from several EU countries, Norway, Lithuania, Luxembourg and others publicly condemned Belarus’s role in Russia’s war, ongoing repression, and Minsk’s vote at the UN against the resolution on returning Ukrainian children. They simultaneously reaffirmed support for a democratic Belarus and demanded the release of political prisoners.

On 4 December, at the side event “Preparing for the Democratic Future of Belarus” on the margins of the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said that the year 2026 could be crucial not only for Ukraine, but also for Belarus, and the international community should be ready for changes. Remarks were also delivered by deputy Foreign Ministries of Finland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Norway, as well as the head of the International Accountability Platform for Belarus (IAPB). In her speech, Tsikhanouskaya stressed that the release of political prisoners and the cessation of repression in Belarus are only the initial stage, which should be followed by a full-fledged democratic transformation. She warned against illusions about the regime’s intentions: “Lukashenka doesn’t release people because he suddenly became humane. On the one hand, he releases several people, on the other hand, he detains twice as many. On the one hand, he declares that he wants to improve relations with the West; at the same time, he takes trucks hostage and paralyzes the operation of Vilnius Airport with balloons, just like yesterday. On the one hand, he talks about the peace talks in Minsk; on the other, he is building an ammunition factory that will produce half a million shells for the Russian army to kill Ukrainians.” “We cannot trust him. And we must not let him escape responsibility. We should not legitimise it or normalise what is happening in Belarus today.” In her opinion, changes in the dynamics of the war, the possible weakening of Russia and the stability of Ukraine can open a “window of opportunity” for democratic transformations in Belarus. In this situation, the international community should be ready to support the transition process and take Belarus out of Russia’s control. “For many Belarusians, including among the nomenklatura, Lukashenka is a lame duck. His watch is ticking. That is why we must prepare for Belarus after Lukashenka right now. And this is where I look forward to the OSCE’s active participation. We count on the OSCE as an organisation and on the OSCE participating states, which must be ready for change and lead us to new elections, free and fair,” she said. Tsikhanouskaya presented a list of proposals from the democratic forces to the “For a Democratic Belarus” group of states and the OSCE as an organisation: To consider the possibility of applying the Moscow Mechanism, paying special attention to the forced displacement of Belarusians and their extraterritorial persecution; to support Lithuania and Poland, which are facing hybrid attacks from the Lukashenka regime; monitor the situation in Belarusian prisons, including inhumane conditions, torture and cases of disappearances of political prisoners; to hold a new high-level conference on the future of Belarus to discuss the country’s sovereignty and its place in the European security system; join the International Humanitarian Fund for Victims of Repression and support independent media, human rights initiatives and democratic institutions.

In the corridors, Tsikhanouskaya’s advisers Franak Viačorka and Dzianis Kuchynski approached Sekreta, but the exchange proved highly ideological. The democratic side proposed a “real dialogue on an exit from the crisis and on elections,” while Sekreta responded with accusations of supporting sanctions and “betrayal.” A similar encounter with Sekreta took place earlier, on 2 August.

Belarus’s gold and foreign exchange reserves grew by USD 0.18 billion in November 2025, reaching a record USD 13.9 billion as of 1 December. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, the key factor was a 4.1% increase in global gold prices, which boosted the valuation of monetary gold in reserves by USD 0.31 billion, while foreign-currency assets declined by USD 0.1 billion. Since the beginning of the year, Belarus’s reserves have increased by roughly 1.5 times.

The Dissidentby human rights initiative prepared statistics on political persecution in Belarus from January to December 2025. According to their research, at least 1,267 people have been criminally prosecuted since the beginning of the year, of whom at least 438 have been detained. During the same period, 405 people were released: 24 people were pardoned; 54 people were released and forcibly transferred from Belarus to Lithuania; the rest were released after serving their sentences. “The repression continues to be systemic and sustained. There is no real reason to believe that the Lukashenka regime has softened the repression against dissidents,» said Leanid Marozau, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s legal adviser.

On 12 November, the KGB recognised the Polish event agencies Terra Group Event and SSL Production as “extremist formations”. In addition to the agencies, the unregistered art space Sklad Butelek in Barysau was also recognised as an “extremist formation”

On 26 November, the Homel Regional Court sentenced a married couple, Stanislau Machalau and Svyatlana Yakubovich, to four and five years respectively on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”. Machalau was sentenced to four years of imprisonment in a high-security colony, and Yakubovich was sentenced to five years of imprisonment in a general regime colony. This is not the first political trial for Machalau. He was first detained in the spring of 2021 and sentenced to three years of imprisonment on two political charges. In December 2023, he was released after fully serving his sentence, but a year later he was detained again in a new criminal case.

Vasil Hrechikha, a former soldier of the Kalinouski Regiment, was sentenced to five years of imprisonment. He was tried together with Vasil Verameychik. It recently became known that Verameychik was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment. Hrechikha was sentenced under 12 charges, including the “extremist” ones and participation in an armed conflict on the territory of another state. The arrest of Hrechikha became known in May from a story shown on Belarusian television. In the story, he was led through a swamp by three armed men in camouflage with his hands tied and a bag on his head. It was not specified where the arrest took place. It was shown that Hrechikha was taken by car to a military helicopter and handed over to KGB officers. During the flight, he was lying on the floor, and a KGB officer pressed him to the floor with his foot.

Hleb Panasyuk, a resident of Svetlahorsk, disappeared after returning from Poland. There has been no information about his whereabouts since 9 October, but now he has been found in the Homel pre-trial detention centre. According to available information, Panasyuk had been living in Poland for several years, but in October he went to Belarus. According to his friends, the last time he contacted them was on 9 October, when he said that he was at the station in Brest and was planning to take a train to Svetlahorsk. After that, it was impossible to contact him. Human rights activists learned that Panasyuk is currently in Homel Pre-trial Detention Centre No. 3.

A photo of singer Marharyta Lyauchuk, who was sentenced in absentia to six years of imprisonment in June 2024, appeared on “the police are looking for them” stands. On her social media, Lyauchuk noted that she had never lived at the address indicated on the stands. She also noted that the wrong date of birth was indicated there.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs recognised journalist and political commentator Ihar Ilyash, who was sentenced to four years of imprisonment and fined 4,200 Belarusian rubles (about 1,444 USD), as an “extremist”. He was found guilty of “facilitating extremist activities” and “discrediting” Belarus. According to the investigation, in interviews Ilyash gave to independent media, including those from Russia, Belarus and other countries, he spoke about his wife’s case. This was qualified by the investigation as “facilitating extremist formations”. Also, as stated in the case file, Ilyash “was engaged in collecting data for foreign intelligence services” – this was how his interviews with the Ukrainian media were qualified. Ilyash pleaded not guilty to these charges. His wife, Belsat TV channel journalist Katsyaryna Andreyeva, was detained in November 2020 during mass protests in Minsk, while she was hosting a live broadcast from one of the protest actions. She was initially sentenced to two years of imprisonment, but in July 2022, the court sentenced her to eight years of imprisonment in a high–security colony on charges of high treason.

Maxim Fedaravich, coordinator of the Angel search team, was found guilty of “facilitating extremist activities”. The verdict is still unknown. In recent months, those who were connected with the Belarusian Hajun project were tried under these charges.

Christian preacher Alyaksei Jahayla, who was found guilty of “facilitating extremist activities”, remains in custody. Earlier, it was reported that his persecution may be related to the Belarusian Hajun case. It was not clear whether he was sentenced to imprisonment or to restriction of freedom with referral to a special institution. Human rights activists have now found out that he is in Homel Pre-trial Detention Center No. 3 and has been sentenced to imprisonment.

Norway will allocate additional funds to support those repressed in Belarus. The funds will be received by the International Humanitarian Fund. Last year, Norway provided 850,000 Euro to the fund. Additionally, the inter-party group “For a Democratic Belarus” was officially established in the parliament of Norway. The group has already been joined by eight representatives from five factions. The group will participate in the interparliamentary alliance For a Democratic Belarus, draw attention to the problem of political prisoners, and contribute to solving the problems of the diaspora.

On 1 December, international and regional human rights experts issued a joint statement in the context of the continued arbitrary and prolonged detention of human rights defenders. The statement was signed by Mary Lawlor, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders; Gina Romero, UN Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association; Michel Forst, UN Special Rapporteur on Environmental Defenders under the Aarhus Convention; Prof. Rémy Ngoy Lumbu, African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders, Focal Point on Reprisals and Focal Point on the Independence of the Judiciary in Africa; and Roberta Clarke, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders and Justice Operators. They stressed that arbitrary detention remains one of the most common and cruel tools used by repressive authorities to silence those peacefully exercising the right to defend human rights and to dismantle civil society. This intentionally fosters a climate of fear, creating a profound deterrent effect that discourages the legitimate and essential work of activists, human rights defenders, as well as citizens seeking to organise, assemble and express themselves to hold the state accountable for adherence to the rule of law and human rights obligations. Human rights defenders are routinely subjected to trumped-up charges, unfair trials, and the misuse of anti-terrorism and national security laws, which flagrantly violate international human rights standards. Recent years have seen the persistent use of prolonged pretrial detention and long-term imprisonment against human rights defenders, who are often held in inhumane and degrading conditions. Many face torture, ill-treatment and abuse, and some have died in prison while serving their sentences. The sentence of 14 years and nine months in prison against the human rights defender Marfa Rabkova of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre was listed among the examples of numerous cases of defenders serving sentences of ten years or more around the world. “This misuse and abuse of power destroys lives, livelihoods, families and communities. It stifles and inhibits defenders from carrying out their legitimate and essential work, and discourages others from exercising the right to defend human rights”, experts noted. Such reprisals clearly violate international human rights standards enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the UN Declaration on Human Rights Defenders, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the UN Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

On 2 December, the names of the nominees included in the shortlist of the human rights community award for the protection and promotion of human rights in 2025 were published. Pavel Lyavinau, Alena Maslyukova, and Tatsiana Nyadbai were included in the list of nominees for “Human Rights Defender of the Year – 2025”. In the nomination “Journalist of the Year – 2025”, the shortlist includes: Katsyaryna Abromchik, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, Larysa Shchyryakova, freelancer, and Alena Yakzhik, “Salidarnast”. In the nomination “Human Rights Campaign / Initiative of the Year – 2025” were named: the campaign “Prison does not have a woman’s face”, monitoring of the observance of the right to asylum for Belarusians in Georgia, and the initiative “They decided to completely get rid of us”. The nomination “Human Rights Solidarity of the Year – 2025” includes: Ales Bialiatski, Valyantsin Stefanovich, and Ulad Labkovich; Volha Britsikava; and Andrzej Poczobut. The winners will be awarded online on 10 December. The Human Rights Award, which celebrates achievements in the field of human rights, was established in 2008.

37 OSCE participating states issued a statement on the repression in Belarus and called on the Belarusian authorities to stop human rights violations. The statement was read out at the OSCE Ministerial Summit on 5 December. Members of the Informal Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus, including Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, joined by Albania, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liechtenstein, Malta, Moldova, San Marino, and Switzerland, noted that since the fraudulent presidential election in Belarus in 2020, the brutal repression and human rights violations have continued systematically and unabated. Signatories strongly condemned these violations, which target all segments of Belarusian society. They also strongly condemned the Belarusian authorities’ involvement and complicity in Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and called on the Belarusian authorities to ensure that no Ukrainian children are forcibly transferred to or through Belarus’ territory and to provide full transparency on any such cases. The statement underlined that in July 2024, 38 OSCE participating States expressed their deep regret over Belarus’ failure to implement the 2023 Moscow Mechanism report recommendations, and therefore invoked the OSCE Vienna Mechanism to ask several pressing questions to Belarus. As was raised repeatedly in the OSCE Permanent Council in 2025, Belarus has still not provided a substantial response to the concerns expressed. On the contrary, the persecution and intimidation campaigns against all segments of society continue, and the overall human rights situation has continued to deteriorate over the past year, with new forms of repression added. The signatory states urged Belarus to fully implement its international obligations and OSCE commitments in the field of human rights and democracy. Belarus must also stop its support for Russia’s illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine.

On 7 December, the “Bonn International Democracy Prize” association, together with the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and the City of Bonn, awarded the “Bonn International Prize for Democracy and the Rule of Law” to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The prize honoured Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s outstanding commitment to a free and democratic Belarus. “Her work is representative of the many people who are doing everything in their power to put an end to the arbitrary political rule by the Belarusian state apparatus. At the same time, her resistance is directed at a regime that is willingly participating in the Russian Federation’s aggression against the European security and peace order,” a press release by the Bonn International Democracy Prize association read.

The Byaction initiative, created to support Belarusian political refugees, has started operating in the United States. It was organised by Belarusian activists living in the United States to help those who are legally in the country and awaiting a decision on political asylum. Recently, Belarusians who left for political reasons and fell into a bureaucratic trap have been increasingly detained in the United States. Their cases were supposed to be tried in the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) of the Department of Justice, but by mistake were sent to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Because of this, the process is delayed for years. In addition, on 21 January 2025, the Department of Homeland Security received expanded powers for expedited deportation, which increased the risks for those who are still waiting for legalisation. The purpose of Byaction is to support people in difficult situations and promote their safety and stability. The initiative cooperates with American lawyers and legal assistants. Byaction also contacts the US authorities, informs them about the situations of Belarusians, and appeals for support from senators, congressmen, and representatives of the State Department.

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Best regards, iSANS team