Belarus Review by iSANS — December 23, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, no flights of Russian drones were recorded in Belarusian airspace between 15 and 21 December.

On 15 December, talks were held in Zimbabwe between Belarus’s Minister of Defence Viktar Khrenin and Zimbabwe’s Minister of Defence Oppah Muchinguri-Kashiri. During the meeting, Khrenin stated that the purpose of his visit was to intensify bilateral military and military-technical cooperation. “In military terms, Belarus has something to offer Zimbabwe. […] We have extensive experience that we are ready to share with our Zimbabwean colleagues. Cooperation in military education could become the foundation of our practical interaction,” Khrenin said. Following the talks, the heads of the defence ministries of Belarus and Zimbabwe signed an interagency agreement on military cooperation.

On 15 December, during the talk show “Po sushchestvu,” Deputy Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces for ideological work Eduard Zhmakin spoke about the protection of strategic facilities from drones. “There is a list of priority facilities that must be protected. These facilities – the nuclear power plant and our oil refineries – are protected. Additional air defence forces and assets are allocated. We also have on-duty Su-30SM2 crews. Our crews are trained to operate against low-flying, low-speed targets,” he said. According to Zhmakin, the Air Force and Air Defence Forces also have mobile fire groups and electronic warfare systems to counter UAVs. “A [counter-UAV] system has been created; it is developing, and it is developing at the state level,” he concluded.

On 18 December, speaking at the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, Aliaksandr Lukashenka (Aliaksandr Lukashenka) stated that the Oreshnik missile system had been delivered to Belarus. “In addition, the first positions have been equipped for the Oreshnik missile system. It has been with us since yesterday and is going on combat duty,” Lukashenka said. On 19 December, he reffered to deployment location: “It has been deployed where it is most advantageous, but I will not talk about it. Over time, this will not be a secret anyway. Creating such a deployment area in a short (or long) period of time… it will not remain secret,” Lukashenka said.

On 19 December, Minister of Defence Viktar Khrenin commented on the deployment of the Oreshnik system in Belarus. “Yesterday you heard it – the Oreshnik missile system has arrived and has been deployed on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and is preparing to go on combat duty. As soon as this happens, we will certainly invite you and show it,” he said.

On 21 December, the former security officers’ group BELPOL published an investigation into the construction of a munitions plant in the Slutsk district – the Closed Joint-Stock Company “Zavod Korpusnykh Izdeliy” (ZKI). The founders of the enterprise are two state-owned companies: Volatavto and the Precision Electromechanics Plant. At the initial stage, the plant is expected to produce 120,000 122-mm rockets for the Grad multiple launch rocket system and 120,000 152-mm artillery rounds per year. Investigators note that Russia is the sole customer for this output. According to the plans, the first equipment is to be delivered to the site by April 2026, and Belarusian engineers are already undergoing training at similar facilities in China and Russia.

On 21 December, speaking on STV television, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Andrei Lukyanovich stated that since the beginning of 2025 more than 1,400 violations of Belarus’s airspace usage rules had been recorded. A large number of targets – primarily drones – have crossed Belarus’s state border. Asked where the drones are entering from, he clarified that “mostly from the south.” Earlier, on 16 August, Lukyanovich had stated that between 1 January and 16 August 2025 more than 800 airspace violations had been recorded, including over 300 drones entering Belarusian airspace. He also said that Belarus would receive another batch of Su-30SM2 fighter jets by the end of 2025.

On 15 December in Vilnius, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, together with Ales Bialiatski, met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, expressing gratitude to the Lithuanian side for its support to the released political prisoners. At the same time, she stressed the need to maintain international pressure on the regime. Special thanks were also conveyed to U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale for their humanitarian efforts that contributed to Bialiatski’s release. On 17 December, Tsikhanouskaya and Bialiatski held a meeting with Speaker of the Seimas of Lithuania Juozas Olekas, during which they discussed issues related to political prisoners and institutional cooperation between the democratic forces and the Lithuanian parliament. On 18 December, Tsikhanouskaya took part in a meeting with a group of 20 released Belarusian political prisoners who arrived in Vilnius after being forcibly deported from Belarus. She publicly reaffirmed the continuation of the campaign to secure the release of those still imprisoned and the coordination of humanitarian, legal, and adaptation assistance in cooperation with international and Belarusian initiatives, with the support of Lithuania and Poland.

On 18–19 December 2025, Minsk hosted the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (VNS), an annual constitutional forum bringing together up to 1,200 delegates. Politically, the VNS is intended to serve as a “stabiliser” of the system in the post-2020 period. According to official data, 1,137 delegates registered for the session on 19 December, ensuring a quorum. The central elements of the meeting were Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s Address and the approval of the Programme for the Socio-Economic Development of Belarus for 2026–2030.

In his Address, Lukashenka set out a new political framing, contrasting with the 2020–2025 period: that things would be “uninteresting”, effectively calling for a focus on economic issues. In practice, however, his speech continued to be dominated by narratives of external threats, hostile rhetoric, and cynical remarks toward opponents. In particular, Lukashenka commented that after prison Viktar Babaryka had “lost weight and become a handsome man” and claimed the presence of “hundreds of agents” within the Belarusian opposition. The emphasis shifted toward information and psychological pressure on external centres of opposition activity, alongside an attempt to demonstrate total control over the political field.

Lukashenka repeatedly referred to Jewish themes, seeking to portray his regime as free of ethnic discrimination (“Not a single Jew, not a single Pole will throw a stone into my garden,” among other statements). In addressing negotiations with the United States before his supporters, he attempted to frame them as a dialogue “between the strong and the strong”. He effectively confirmed that talks with the U.S. include discussions on the sale of a stake in the Belarusian Potash Company and stated that preparations were under way for a meeting with Donald Trump. At the same time, he later claimed that an armed conflict with Poland and Lithuania would allegedly be beneficial to the U.S.

The 2026–2030 five-year programme was presented by Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn. While formally professional and fiscally grounded, it appears low in ambition and reflects the regime’s intention to adapt to structural constraints, demographic decline, and the exhaustion of internal growth resources rather than to generate new growth. This is illustrated by the gap between Lukashenka’s stated goal of increasing GDP from roughly USD 73 billion to USD 100 billion by 2030 – requiring average annual growth of around 6.5% – and the government’s more realistic targets of at least 3% annual growth and 15.8% cumulatively over the five-year period, corresponding to GDP of approximately USD 85 billion. Demographic parameters in the programme (births rising only to 64–65 thousand per year, life expectancy of 76.5 years, mortality at 11.5 ppm), limited plans for school and kindergarten construction, an emphasis on rental housing, and regional connectivity through roads and the agro-industrial sector all point to a strategy of adapting to long-term population decline rather than pursuing a demographic turnaround. Of particular note is the defence block, which positions the defence industry as a source of technology and innovation, emphasises a “sovereign military policy” within the alliance with Russia, and stresses the absence of an orientation toward offensive scenarios.

Overall, the VNS session of 18–19 December 2025 demonstrated the further routinisation of this body, the consolidation of the authoritarian political architecture, and an attempt to offer the society an image of a “boring”, but tightly controlled future.

At the same time, the slowdown in Belarus’s economic growth is becoming a persistent trend. According to the macroeconomic forecast of the Monitoring the Belarusian Economy project, GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 0.5–1.5%, following a deceleration to around 1.1% in 2025. The key reasons include the exhaustion of domestic growth drivers, labour shortages, weak investment returns, and dependence on the performance of the Russian economy. The scope for large-scale fiscal stimulus has effectively been exhausted; inflation is expected to remain close to 7% year-on-year, while the foreign trade deficit is projected to reach around 2% of GDP.

From 16 to 22 December, tensions persisted along the Belarus–Lithuania border. However, following statements by U.S. Special Envoy John Coale about Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s readiness to halt balloon launches and resolve the issue of Lithuanian trucks (December 13), there was a gradual decline in the public intensity of confrontation and a shift by Vilnius toward more flexible rhetoric.

On 16 December, Lithuanian presidential adviser Darius Matulionis suggested that a potential resumption of Belarusian potash transit via Klaipėda could be linked to an expansion of the U.S. military presence, stressing the pragmatic dimension of Lithuania’s “national interest” and the absence of direct U.S. pressure on Vilnius at this stage. On the same day, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly stated that it had not received any official Lithuanian proposals for contacts at the level of ambassadors-at-large and once again referred to the treaty provision requiring unresolved border disputes to be transferred to the diplomatic level. At the same time, Lithuanian police, with the participation of an anti-terrorist unit, conducted a large-scale raid against “meteorological balloon” smuggling networks (21 people detained; charges include assisting a foreign state in its actions against Lithuania), reinforcing Vilnius’s line of criminalising the border crisis. On 17 December, Speaker of the Seimas Juozas Olekas allowed for the possibility of changes in relations with Minsk, referring to negotiations at a “technical level” with political mediation by allies and linking further steps to the release of detainees and the return of transport. At the same time, Lithuania’s Ministry of Justice confirmed that it is working on a mechanism for confiscating Belarusian assets as a retaliatory measure should Lithuanian trucks be confiscated in Belarus, acknowledging high legal risks and the need for a separate law.

In his turn, on 19 December Aliaksandr Lukashenka announced an expanded use of army units to cover the western border and publicly played up the issue of “balloons,” while simultaneously confirming openness to dialogue but insisting on contacts at a higher political level. On the same day, Belarus officially notified Lithuania of plans to build a radioactive waste disposal/temporary storage facility and requested Vilnius’s participation in a transboundary environmental impact assessment (proposed sites: Khoiniki/Astravets/Mstsislau).

On the Polish direction, renewed migration pressure was recorded on 22 December (30 attempts from Friday to Sunday), which at this stage appears to confirm the managed nature of hybrid migrant pressure on the Belarus–Poland border.

Daniel-Landsay Keitu, a laureate of singing competitions and a member of the singing choir, was sentenced to imprisonment for participating in protests. The trial took place at the beginning of the year in the court of the Moskovsky district of Minsk, but the sentence has become known to human rights activists only now. Keitu was sentenced to two years of imprisonment. The detention of Keitu became known in June last year. In the “repentant video”, he “confessed” that he had participated in protest actions in 2020, left negative comments about police officers and government officials, and treated Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine badly.

As it became known recently, on 9 October, political prisoner and anarchist Yauhen Rubashka was tried in Zhodzina prison No. 8 for malicious disobedience to the requirements of the administration. He was sentenced to an additional year of imprisonment. During his two years in prison, Rubashka was subjected to penalties 33 times. Most of them concerned sleeping during the day or refusal to do morning exercises. As punishment, he was placed in a punishment cell 11 times, and spent there a total of 125 days. He was twice deprived of short-term appointments, and was reprimanded many times.

The Partizansky district Court of Minsk again recognised the materials of the Council of Europe website as “extremist” on 19 December. The updated “Republican List of Extremist Materials” now contains references to the Conference of International Non-Governmental Organisations (CINGO), the statement of the CINGO Human Rights Committee in connection with the 2020 protests, and the statement by the President of CINGO on human rights violations in Belarus after the forced landing of a Ryanair flight. On 5 December, the court had previously recognised the website of CINGO as “extremist materials.” At that time, the website of the Council of Europe was indicated in the court’s decision — www.coe.int. On 10 December, this decision of the court was reversed.

The Hrodna Regional Court sentenced Alyaksandr (Ales) Zdarovyannau, a political prisoner and activist from Rechitsa, to ten years of imprisonment and a fine of 500 basic units (21 thousand rubles, or approximately 6,100 Euro). He was found guilty of high treason and facilitating extremist activities. In 2020-2021, Zdarovyannau was brought to administrative responsibility for participating in protests and hanging flags in the courtyard of a private house. He travelled to Lithuania and Poland several times. At the end of March, he was detained on the border with Lithuania. At first, he was placed under administrative arrest, and later charged with criminal offences and placed in a pre-trial detention center.

According to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre, there are at least 127 confirmed detainees in the Belarusian Hajun case. The total number of those detained is much higher. Against the background of ongoing detentions, trials of the defendants in the case are already underway. People who provided information to the Belarusian Hajun project are being sentenced to a restriction of freedom and imprisonment.

The KGB uses previously unknown espionage software for surveillance, including of journalists, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and RESIDENT.NGO reported. The program, which was named ResidentBat after the discovery, is used on smartphones and tablets with the Android operating system. According to RSF, ResidentBat allows access to call logs, microphone recordings, SMS messages, messages from encrypted messengers and local files. Unlike such spyware programs as Pegasus, Resident Bat is not installed remotely, KGB officers must gain physical access to the device. It is disguised as a regular application. “The systematic invasion of journalists’ privacy and work is a direct attack on press freedom and fundamental rights. To fully combat such crimes against journalists, an international ban on such intrusion and surveillance technologies has long been necessary,” said Antoine Bernard, Director of Advocacy and Assistance of RSF. RSF shared the results of the investigation with Google. Google intends to send notifications about the “government-backed attack” to all users who have become targets of the software used by the Belarusian KGB.

On 17 December, seven more people were recognised as political prisoners in Belarus, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. According to “Viasna”, 1,112 people had the status of political prisoners in Belarus that day.

The Investigative Committee launched a special (in absentia) procedure against Victoryja Bakunovich. She was accused of creating an “extremist formation” and facilitating “extremist activities”. Bakunovich was mentioned in the case of the hanging of the national Belarusian and Ukrainian flags on Lesya Ukrainka Street in Minsk in August 2022. Five people were detained in this case. Most of them were sentenced to five years of imprisonment. Two weeks after their detention, the Ministry of Internal Affairs recognised the “xinkalik” channel in the Zello app as an “extremist group.” Bakunovich was listed among those involved in the “formation”.

The Investigative Committee launched a special (in absentia) procedure against Artsyom Shabuneu. He was accused of incitement to discord, violence or threat of violence against an officer of the Department of Internal Affairs, violence or threat of violence against an official, and insulting a government official.

On the evening of 16 December, messages about interrogations of Belarusians began to appear in chat rooms dedicated to crossing the border with Poland. The interrogations continued on 17 and 18 December. Some attribute this to the fact that the Belarusian People’s Assembly started on 18 December. Even people who have never been interrogated before were reportedly being interrogated. Users of chats, however, identified three main categories of those who faced interrogations: students (including underage), those with a European residence permit, and those who have not been in Belarus for a long time.

On 20 December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added 32 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities.” There are now 6,116 names on the list.

109 Belarusian political prisoners, released on 13 December and forcibly transported from Belarus to Ukraine, arrived in Warsaw on the night of 18 December. In Warsaw, they were greeted by relatives, friends, volunteers, journalists and diplomats. Following their arrival, the former political prisoners were placed under the coordination and care of Belarusian civil society organisations, with the Centre for Belarusian Solidarity in Warsaw acting as the main coordinator; assistance is also being provided by the Polish government. Among the arrivals were Viktar Babaryka, Maryja Kalesnikava, Maksim Znak, Alyaksandr Feduta, Uladzimir Labkovich, Maryna Zolatava, and Pavel Severinets. Most of former political prisoners will remain in Poland. The volunteers provided them with food, clothes, and SIM cards, and a doctor and a psychologist were on duty. Some were taken away by relatives and friends, while others were temporarily accommodated in hotels with free meals. It is reported that some of those released, including Babaryka, Kalesnikava and Feduta, do not have passports — instead, temporary identity certificates were issued for them by Belarusian authorities. Some of the ex-political prisoners, including Pavel Seviarynets and human rights activist Uladzimir Labkovich, left for Lithuania. Viktar Babaryka and Maryja Kalesnikava arrived in Berlin on 19 December. Earlier, German Minister of Internal Affairs Alexander Dobrindt said that Germany would grant them asylum. The released political prisoners were allowed to enter Poland based on the consent of the commandant of the border guard service of Poland, which is valid for 15 days. During this time, 89 people who decided to stay in Poland should apply for international protection. 10 applications were submitted already on 19 December. Polish border guards expressed their willingness to accept documents on weekends in order to help speed up the legalisation procedure.

On 13 December, President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola stated that the European Parliament will continue to push for all political prisoners in Belarus to be set free, including journalist Andrzej Poczobut. She welcomed the “release of a number of political prisoners“ in Belarus, including Sakharov Prize laureates Maryja Kalesnikava and Ales Bialiatski, noting that the latter is also a Nobel Peace Prize laureate. “They have endured so much. I wish them strength as they reunite with their families and loved ones”, wrote Metsola. “To those who remain behind bars: we will not forget you,” she stressed. Secretary General of the Council of Europe Alain Berset, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Theodoros Rousopoulos, Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda, the Czech Foreign Ministry and others also welcomed the release of Belarusian political prisoners on 13 December.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has commented on the release of Belarusian political prisoners. In its statement, the Ukrainian side expressed hope that their release would bring the liberation of Belarus as a country closer. “Belarus has been under the vassalage of Moscow for many years and in captivity of the Lukashenka regime, which, in particular, uses people as a living commodity in exchange for political indulgences. We are convinced that one day Belarus will eventually return to its natural state of a free, democratic European country. The liberated people will also help in this, from the Nobel Prize winner, public and political figures to ordinary freedom—loving people,” the statement said.

On 17 December, Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus, welcomed the recent releases of prisoners convicted in relation to protests around the 2020 presidential elections but cautioned against excessive optimism about the human rights situation in Belarus. “The recent releases have been accompanied by expulsions to other countries, while those who were allowed to remain in Belarus upon liberation have been placed under a draconian surveillance regime and prevented from re-entering the professional labour market,” Muižnieks said. He warned that detentions and prosecutions on politically motivated grounds continue along with the releases. “The overall number of people designated by human rights defenders as political prisoners still in detention remains over 1,100, which means Belarus continues to rank among the countries with the highest number of political prisoners per capita,” he said. Muižnieks stressed that while state media presented these releases as “pardons”, the politician Mikalai Statkevich who refused to leave the country, was reportedly apprehended and placed in detention again. Some other recently released prisoners saw new criminal cases opened against them in absentia. Some of those expelled were either nearing the end of their prison terms or had already served their terms, their imprisonment having been arbitrarily prolonged based on Article 411 of the Criminal Code for “malicious disobedience to penitentiary authorities”, a provision repeatedly criticised by UN experts. “These people were looking forward to returning to their homes and families. Instead, they were expelled from the country, left without means of subsistence and, in some cases, stripped of identity documents,” Muižnieks said. “Returning to Belarus for them means facing new criminal charges and imprisonment. Those are not pardons, but forced exile,” he said. – “While the prisoner releases are certainly a relief, there are no signs from Belarusian authorities of a change in the policy or practice of repression and no declarations to that effect. Until perpetrators of grave human rights violations are held accountable, all political prisoners are released and all Belarusians in exile can safely return to Belarus and are allowed to speak and work freely, we cannot speak of a normalisation of the situation.”

The German Federal Criminal Police is investigating the possible involvement of Dzmitri Shynvize, the former head of the Babruisk colony, who now lives in Germany, in crimes against humanity. This information was received by BELPOL from the German Federal Ministry of Justice, which had previously received from BELPOL detailed information on the case. Shynvize is a former employee of the Department of Corrections of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus, head of the operational security unit of colony No. 2 in Babruisk, where political prisoners are held. The BELPOL communication contained a description of his alleged involvement in torture and ill-treatment of political prisoners, all the related documents available to the organisation, as well as contacts of victims of Shynvize’s actions.

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola presented the Sakharov Prize 2025 to representatives of two journalists imprisoned in Belarus and Georgia. The ceremony took place on 16 December  in Strasbourg. “I am proud to present this year’s Sakharov Prize to journalists Andrzej Poczobut and Mzia Amaglobeli in recognition of their courageous struggle for freedom of speech and the democratic future of Belarus and Georgia,” said Metsola. – “This parliament stands in solidarity with Mzia and Andrzej and calls for their immediate release from prison, because telling the truth to those in power should never be a crime.”  Andrzej Poczobut, a journalist, essayist, blogger and representative of the Polish minority in Belarus, was represented by his daughter Jana Poczobut. “It is a great honor for me to stand here today and accept this award on behalf of my father. (…) For almost five years now, my family has been living in silence, uncertainty and the absence of the person we love,” she said. – “When we say names out loud, they cease to be statistics. They become real again. And that is why your attention, the attention of the European Parliament, is so important. It preserves human dignity where everything else is trying to destroy it.”

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Best regards, iSANS team