Belarus Review by iSANS — December 23, 2024 

Dear Readers,

thank you for your attention to our newsletter throughout 2024. This issue is the last one this year. We would like to use the opportunity and wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We will return with more news on Belarus on January 7, 2025, and hope for your attention also next year.

Best regards,
iSANS Team

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS). 

Russian drones from Ukraine continued to fly into Belarusian airspace. During the week under review, at least 16 drones of the Shahed type flew into the airspace of Belarus. Thus, on December 17, one drone overflight was recorded. December 18-19 – three drones; December 20 – one drone; December 21 – five drones; December 22 – six drones. Subsequently, most of them flew to Ukraine. The destruction of drones by units of the Armed Forces of Belarus was not reported.

On December 16, the 48^th separate battalion of electronic warfare held a ceremony of receiving new equipment. Judging by the published photos, the battalion could have received two automated jamming stations, R-934UM2 Groza-6. Back in late November, Goskomvoenprom announced that it supplied the Armed Forces of Belarus with at least two R-934UM2 jamming stations. The announcement also stated that “soon” the Armed Forces of Belarus should receive two more Groza-6 stations. Thus, on December 16, the 48^th Radio Electronic Warfare battalion could have held: 1) either a ceremony of handing over to the crews the R-934UM2 stations delivered to the Armed Forces of Belarus at the end of November; 2) or a ceremony of handing over to the crews a new batch of R-934UM2 stations, which Goskomvoenprom promised to deliver “soon.”

On December 16, it became known that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus was planning to purchase a batch of fuel tankers for the Armed Forces of Belarus. The military will receive the following vehicles: 1) ATZ-6 – 21 units, 2) ATZ-12 – three units. The numbers “6” and “12” in the name mean the volume of petroleum products (cubic meters) that can be transported by the refueling truck. The budget plans to spend 9,928,589.58 BYN (ca. USD 2,864,732) for the purchase of 24 fuel tankers. The last publicly reported procurement of refueling tankers for the army took place in 2022. At present, the fleet of refueling tankers of the Armed Forces of Belarus is mainly represented by Soviet-made vehicles.

On December 16, it was reported that the Armed Forces General Staff faculty is hosting a refresher course on “Fundamentals of Military Security and Territorial Defense” for chairpersons of district and city executive committees. Within the framework of the course, the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Pavel Muraveika, held classes and familiarized the officials “with the main trends of the military and political situation around Belarus.” In turn, the head of the Territorial Defense Department of the General Staff “brought the role of territorial defense in the system of ensuring military security of Belarus”. It was noted that the training sessions were aimed at improving the level of preparation and coherence of the territorial defense management bodies for the formation of territorial troops.

From December 16 to 18, at the training center of internal troops “Volovshchina,” a three-day training camp for sniper training hunters was held. During the training camp, more than 15 representatives of the Belarusian Hunters and Fishermen Society, under the guidance of instructors, studied the “subtleties of Mosin rifle ownership.” The main emphasis was on practice with daily shooting in various tactical situations, including in conditions of limited visibility.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, gave an interview to RFI, where she shared her insights on the strategy of the Belarusian democratic forces ahead of the sham presidential elections in Belarus, which are set for January 26, 2025. Tsikhanouskaya said that she sees strong consensus among the partners in the West that there cannot be turning back to “business as usual” after January 26. Moreover, she added that in a situation of ongoing repression in Belarus, no protest is possible, even a peaceful one, and that many people would be forced to vote. The Belarusian democratic forces urge those people to vote against all candidates. Tsikhanouskaya announced a large event in Warsaw for the Belarusians in exile on the day of the sham presidential election in Belarus. The event is aimed at drawing international attention to the situation in Belarus. On December 18, Tsikhanouskaya addressed the people on the occasion of the Day of Migration, motivating Belarusians not to give up and continue their strive for freedom. On December 21, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued an address on International Human Solidarity Day, stating that “Solidarity is a powerful and uniting force.”

On December 16, the European Union sanctioned two legal entities and 26 individuals from Belarus in connection with the situation in the country. Restrictive measures were imposed on various members of the judiciary, namely judges who issued politically motivated sentences, including against citizens who voiced their opinions against the Lukashenka regime, the political system, and the brutality of Belarusian law enforcement structures. Furthermore, restrictive measures were also imposed on the heads and deputy heads of various correctional institutions (prisons and a pre-trial detention center) and the head of a medical unit in one of these institutions. The listing also includes individuals who, as business owners, part-owners, associates, or members of boards of directors, have benefitted from the Lukashenka regime, including through the privileges awarded or advantages granted to their companies by the regime, and contributed to the circumvention of EU sanctions. Vlate Logistik LLC, a Belarusian transport and storage company that owns two border checkpoints on the EU-Belarus border and enjoys significant tax advantages and benefits from the Lukashenka regime, is one of the two sanctioned entities, together with its shareholders Aleh Barabanau, Aleh Herasim, Aleh Paitrou, Dzmitry Zamulevich, and Uladzimir Arkadzyeu. The other sanctioned entity is Ruzekspeditsiya LLC, a Belarusian company that benefits from the regime and facilitates the circumvention of EU sanctions by participating in the delivery of cars prohibited from being sold, supplied, transferred, or exported from the EU to Belarus. Ruzekspeditsiya is listed together with its owner, Aleh Arlou.
After Belarusian Foreign Minister Yury Ambrazevich announced that Belarus would be seeking a place at the negotiating table in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced on December 16 that Belarus could not be a party in peace negotiations as the country has facilitated the Russian invasion in early February 2022. The Ukrainian Ministry’s spokesperson said that by facilitating Russia’s aggression, Belarus breached its Constitution, namely Article 18 Part Two, which emphasizes that ‘the Republic of Belarus excludes military aggression from its territory against other states.’

On December 18, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Belarusian Charge d’Affaires Aliaksei Pankratenka and handed over a note expressing a firm protest against the summoning of Polish Diplomat Krzysztof Ozhanna to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus and informed that if such provocations continue, the Polish side would be responding symmetrically. The action of the Polish Ministry is a response to the above action, where Poland was accused of an attempt by Polish special services to recruit a Belarusian diplomat in Chisinau. During that meeting, Poland was warned that the Belarusian side reserves the right to take response measures that it deems necessary.
On December 19, it became known that Lithuania adopted changes in its legislation banning Belarusian, Russian, and Chinese citizens from professional military service, voluntary military service, or other voluntary non-permanent military service, as well as compulsory military service. If a person already serving in the armed forces acquires the nationality of these countries, they will be dismissed. The same regulation applies to the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union. Earlier this year, the government of Lithuania prohibited members of professional military service from traveling to countries that pose a threat to Lithuania’s national security, including Russia, Belarus, and China, for off-duty purposes.

On December 19, Poland imposed sanctions against three companies that supply nitrogen fertilizer from Belarus, adding them to the list of persons and companies subject to sanctions posted on the Polish Interior Ministry’s website. Minsk-based Technospetstrading Export and Technospetstrading and Dubai-based World Chem Trading Co. LLC were added to the list. The ministry said the sanctions were imposed because, by acquiring the products of Grodno Azot, directly or indirectly, and then exporting them, these companies are violating sanction restrictions, which include a ban on imports and exports of Belarusian products from sanctioned entities regardless of country, company or other intermediary circumstances.

On December 20, it was announced that the U.S. government issued a new ‘do not travel’ advisory for Belarus. On the four-tier travel rating system used by the State Department and the equivalent ones used by other nations, the highest ‘do not travel’ advisory is assigned to countries that are either actively at war or have authoritarian governments. Belarus has been classified as authoritarian for decades, given that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has been president since the office was first established amid the fall of the Soviet Union in 1994. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the Belarusian government facilitated the large-scale invasion by providing its territory and airspace for Russian troops and weapons, the “do not travel” advisory was upped to an even more urgent status. With the third anniversary of the invasion approaching and war continuing to rage, the State Department has reissued the Level Four advisory “without changes.” The U.S. Department of State said in a press release that the U.S. Embassy in Belarus has limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus and urged American citizens to abstain from travels to this country as well as advised the ones currently in the country “to depart immediately.”

According to the authorities, about 3,250 criminal cases of “extremist orientation” have been initiated in the Hrodna region since the 2020 election campaign. This was stated by Uladzimir Ryabau, Senior Assistant Prosecutor of the Hrodna region. According to Alesya Uldzinovich, Deputy Head of the Linear Procedural Control Department of the Procedural Control Department of the Investigative Committee for the Hrodna region, this year there is a “tendency to decrease” in the number of such crimes. “In total, in the post-electoral period, more than 800 persons involved in the commission of extremist crimes in the region were identified. Currently, criminal cases against 597 persons on 1,265 criminal episodes have been transferred to prosecutors for referral to court,” she added.

The verdict in the case of the Pinsk journalist Yavhen Mikalaevich, who returned to Belarus from abroad and was detained, has become known. In early October, a court in Pinsk found him guilty of “organizing and preparing actions that grossly violate public order, or actively participating in them.” He was sentenced to one and a half years of imprisonment. In 2020, Mikalaevich, as a video correspondent for Media Polesie, covered the protests against falsifying the presidential election results. He was detained several times, although he did not directly participate in the protest, only took photos and videos on editorial assignment. Mikalaevich’s name has appeared on the list of people involved in extremist activities.

Security forces conducted another raid on the families of political prisoners and former political prisoners. According to information from human rights activists which was published on December 16, KGB officers were detaining people and searching their homes for several days. People were threatened with criminal cases, equipment was seized. The “Country for Life” Foundation reported that in addition to equipment, bank cards were also taken away. It is noted that the security forces conducted the previous such raid a month ago. As a result, many persons were arrested on the charges of “high treason” and “promoting extremist activities.”

Last month, at least 144 persons were convicted under politically motivated criminal charges, including 35 women and 109 men, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. Four more persons were sentenced in the framework of special proceedings (in absentia). A record number of married couples or groups of relatives have been subjected to politically motivated criminal prosecution. There was also an increase in cases of re-conviction: there were five cases of repeated persecution of persons who had previously been subjected to politically motivated criminal repression. The trend of arbitrary persecution of political prisoners who were convicted at the very beginning of the political crisis in mid-2020, whose term of imprisonment was coming to an end at the end of 2024, became visible.

A new method of repression is reported – instead of forced “repentant” videos of detained persons, the security forces now record audio. Police videos became part of repressive practices in Belarus after 2020. Persons were forced to apologize on camera, and talk about their “offenses”, and the wealthier ones were forced to name their salaries. But in November 2024, Telegram channels associated with the security forces stopped publishing such videos, and a new “genre” appeared – videos with only the voices of detainees. Back in October, the police released about 50 videos of detained Belarusians. After a month of silence, four videos appeared, from which it can only be assumed that someone was detained. They consist of audio “confessions” of detainees, and a video with screenshots of messages in Telegram, and subscriptions to channels; in one video a frame with a woman in a prison pea jacket flashes, in another – women’s hands in handcuffs.

A large number of citizens of Western countries are kept in custody in Belarus, serving sentences “for cooperation with the security services of foreign countries,» Kanstantsin Bychak, Head of the KGB Investigative Department said on the state television channel. He also stated that foreign intelligence agencies “regularly” offer to exchange these prisoners for Belarus citizens, who are held in prisons in other countries. However, according to Bychak, in Western countries “there are no citizens of the Republic of Belarus who collaborated with the KGB, were convicted for this and are serving their sentences there,” and “we are not exchanging anyone.” BelPol representative Uladzimir Zhygar believes that Belarus security services treat their recruited agents abroad as “expendable”, and after disclosure, they “write them off” and will not exchange them, for example, for political prisoners. Rygor Nizhnikou, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Studies, believes that Belarus sees the exchange of EU citizens as “potentially the best opportunity” to start a dialogue with the West. According to “Viasna” Human Rights Center, after the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine, at least 19 foreigners were accused of “espionage activity” in Belarus. These are citizens of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Japan, and Germany.

On December 17, arrests and searches took place in Dzerzhinsk, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. According to preliminary information, the security forces were interested in independent observers of the 2020 elections, as well as people who had been found in administrative violations for participating in post-election protests. The exact number of detainees is being clarified.

On December 26, the trial of Aliaksandr Apolka, director of the Materik construction store chain, will begin in the Oktyabrsky district court of Minsk. He is accused of participating in protest actions. Apolka was arrested in August 2024. After his arrest, the security forces called him a “disgruntled bourgeois” and forced him to name his high salary.

The trial of Priest Andrzei Yukhnevich will begin on December 27 in the Shumilinsky district court. Initially, he was detained on “political” charges, but it follows from the schedule of court hearings that they are not among the charges. He is currently charged with “relations with minors”, for which penalties range from five to 13 years of imprisonment. Andrzej Yukhnevich’s acquaintances and parishioners consider the case to be fabricated. The process will take place behind closed doors.

On December 18, the Committees on Foreign Relations of the United States and European countries promised continued support to Ukraine, the democratic forces of Belarus and the Georgian people in their efforts against authoritarianism. U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined by the Chair of the Estonian European Union Affairs Committee Peeter Tali, Vice President of the Italian Chamber of Deputies’ Foreign Affairs Committee Lia Quartapelle, Deputy Chair of the Lithuanian European Committee Ruslanas Baranovas, Deputy Chair of the Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Committee Žygimantas Pavilionis, Deputy Chair of the Polish Foreign Affairs Committee Radoslaw Fogiel, Vice President of the Spanish Congress of Deputies’ Foreign Affairs Committee Carlos Rojas Garcia, and Chair of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada’s Foreign Affairs Committee Oleksandr Merezhko made a statement of democratic solidarity, pledging continued support for Ukraine, Belarus’ democratic forces, and the Georgian people. “We must reject Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s sham elections and deny him the legitimacy he seeks”, – the statement said, – “In our shared spirit of democracy and respect for human rights, we proudly declare: Glory to Ukraine. Long Live Belarus. Georgia belongs in Europe.”

The European Union’s External Action Service has called for the release of Mikalai Khilo, a preast with a local Baptist church and a local member of staff with the EU delegation to Belarus. Khilo has been in pretrial detention since April 24 when he was arrested by the Belarus KGB intelligence service in front of the EU delegation office. He is accused of “calling for sanctions” and “inciting hostility or discord”, and faces up to 12 years of imprisonment. “We call on the Belarusian authorities to release him immediately,” said Anitta Hipper, EU Lead Spokeswoman for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, – “We have raised the issue of him with every contact we have with Belarus.”

On December 19, the U.S. Embassy in Belarus commented on the release of more than 200 Belarusian political prisoners in recent months and called for the release of all political prisoners. “Winter holidays are a great opportunity to get together with loved ones and share moments together. However, not all of us have such an opportunity: more than 1,250 political prisoners are unfairly behind bars in Belarus. While we welcome reports of the release of more than 200 political prisoners in recent months, we will continue to demand the release of ALL political prisoners,” the embassy said in a statement.

On December 19, the British Embassy in Belarus, the German Embassy in Belarus, the Dutch Embassy in Poland and the Czech Foreign Ministry called for the release of journalists unreasonably detained in Belarus. “We are shocked by the recent arrest of seven journalists — this is another sad example of the suppression of freedom of speech in Belarus. 45 media workers are currently behind bars. As members of the Coalition for Media Freedom, we are closely monitoring what is happening and call for the release of unreasonably detained journalists,” the joint statement said.

On December 19, speaking at the European Council, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola called on leaders to step up in order to assert Europe’s place on the world stage. “When we speak about our broader neighborhood, a free and democratic Belarus must be part of our discussions. The so-called Presidential elections scheduled for the 26th of January will again expose the lack of freedom and democracy in the country. It will be an important moment when people will turn their eyes to Europe. And when they do, they deserve to see real European leadership, real decisions and real actions,” she said.

Oleg Orlov, co-founder of the Russian human rights organization Memorial, during an event in France at which he was recognized as an honorary citizen of Paris, stated the need to seek the release of Ales Bialiatski, head of the Human Rights Center “Viasna” and the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. Orlov said that everything possible must be done to save those Russian and Belarusian political prisoners whose lives and health are under particular threat, using exchange processes for this purpose. “I understand that political repression in these countries will stop only when these regimes cease to exist. I hope to live to see it.  […] Ales is currently in the most difficult conditions in prison. His health is ruined. If we all fail to get him released, he may not survive his long sentence,” Orlov said.

At the session of the Advisory Council for Belarusians Abroad on December 16, Deputy Foreign Minister Yury Ambrazevich stated that Belarus claims a place at the negotiating table “for the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.” According to him, the situation near the southern border is complicated, while Minsk is interested in peace: “And against this background, the accusations of our country in complicity with aggression look absurd. Being located in the neighborhood of Ukraine, Belarus is interested in the earliest peaceful resolution of the conflict as no one else. It is quite reasonable that no country wants armed hostilities to break out near its borders. That is why, from the very beginning, the Belarusian side has been taking peacekeeping steps to prevent escalation in Ukraine. That is why we have stated from the very beginning that we claim a place at the table of peace talks on Ukraine when they begin. We need to receive guarantees for our security. The final agreements must necessarily take into account, among other things, the interests of the Belarusian side.”

Propagandists continued watching the situation in Georgia, accusing the West of interfering in the country’s internal affairs and comparing the protests in the country to the scenario allegedly organized by the so-called “puppeteers” in Belarus after the 2020 presidential election. Pro-government expert Aliaksandr Shpakouski: “Remember the five stages of accepting the inevitable? Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. Now, it seems that the transition from anger to bargaining is beginning. Georgia will be blackmailed with economic sanctions and Ivanishvili’s assets in the EU. At the same time, some “bonuses” in case of good behavior will be promised.”

During the period under review, representatives of the Lukashenka regime actively praised the dictator and justified the existence of dictatorships. In the program Azaronak Directly, MP Siarhei Klishevich stated that a ‘dictatorship of stability’ is simply necessary in Belarus because “in this stormy sea, which has raged, we can save ourselves and further steer our boat in the right direction, to pass it on to our children and grandchildren, only thanks to real stability and iron discipline on board.” In his opinion, this can be provided by “National Leader Aliaksandr Ryhoravich Lukashenka,” and Belarusians should “rally around the National Leader.” He was echoed by ONT propagandist Ihar Tur, who, in his program Propaganda, claimed that if “it is profitable for the Americans,” they allegedly cooperate with authoritarian leaders, dictators, and absolute monarchs without any embarrassment. “But if dictators refuse to do something desirable and favorable to the U.S., then they only remember about the form of power, not its content. If the “dictator” Lukashenka would accept the U.S. conditions, which Soros was telling him about – Washington would immediately start to consider and call the President of Belarus not a dictator, but a strong-willed leader, leading the nation to a bright future,” –  Tur tried to convince his viewers.

At the conference “Actual Problems of Social Policy and Ideology” in Minsk on December 18, Ivan Eismant, Chairman of the National State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company, voiced his opinion that recently, the state mass media have radically changed their work and “hold their ground with dignity.” According to him, when the need arose, they “quickly reorganized” and “radically changed their work.” “The expression that we live in the era of information warfare has become a tired one, but it corresponds to reality. Our Western former partners allocate huge sums of money allegedly for the development of democracy in Belarus, but in reality – for the fight against state power in our country. Another question is where this money goes. There is a suspicion that most of it is plundered, which is not bad for us, but still, we need to be on guard,” Eismant said.

Attacks by Lukashenka’s propaganda on Ukraine and Western countries that help Ukraine continue. For example, in his article for the SB. Belarus Segodnya, pro-government military expert Aliaksandr Tsishchanka unfoundedly claims that Ukrainians are allegedly fighting and dying not for Ukraine but for lands already “owned by Western corporations.” “The EU is ready to endlessly supply weapons there and already even plans to introduce its pseudo-peacekeepers because what is at stake is not Ukraine with its Ukrainians, but mercantile interests related to property. This is what they truly associate the security of Europe with, and not the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of any single Eastern European country. Because Russia’s victory promises only the nullification of their robbery deals with Kyiv’s puppet regime. And the Westerners are paying Ukraine first of all not for the will to win, but for permanent harming of Russia”, he believes. Tsishchanka is sure that the West “hates Russia very much” and that it is frightened by the “factor of a direct clash” with the Russian Armed Forces, so Western countries are allegedly using “unlucky Ukraine” to “fight instead of them,” as they pursue the idea of a “non-contact strategic defeat of Russia.”

On December 19, Belarusian Foreign Ministry spokesman Anatol Hlaz said that Belarusian diplomats had familiarized themselves with the stated priorities of the Polish Foreign Ministry within the framework of Poland’s presidency in the EU Council. “What they will play on is clear. On the slumbering Belarusophobia and Russophobia, on the historically habitual demonization of their eastern neighbors. In the next six months, this recklessness, acquiring new threatening forms, will pour from the Warsaw offices to the level of the entire EU. The occupants of these offices cannot fail to realize that such a course could lead to an uncontrollable escalation of the situation in Europe,” said Hlaz. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry assumes that the Polish priorities “did not include the most obvious thing: normal interaction with neighbors” and declares “readiness for a civilized dialogue with the EU in general and with Warsaw in particular,” but at the same time cannot refrain from boorish hints and insults: “We warn the hotheads in Warsaw against the intention to openly interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign state and attempts to destabilize the situation in Belarus from under the fitting crown of the chairman of Europe. Once again, we are reminded that problematic issues should be solved at the negotiating table with counterparties who manage and own the situation, and not with impostors who can only puff up their cheeks and who have not even a minimal influence in the country but even an understanding of the events taking place in it.”

The recently appointed Minister of Culture, Ruslan Charnetski, was a guest on the program “Speak don’t be silent” on Belarus-1. The hosts asked him whether it was worth giving a second chance to the “traitors” – those cultural workers who defected to Lukashenka’s opponents after the presidential election 2020. He answered as follows: “If you are an ideological traitor, there should be no second chances. A traitor is the same enemy, even worse, probably.” At the same time, the minister noted that it is possible to forgive those “confused,” but only if a person is ready to “openly show support for the state, for the power we have now,” if he promises not to engage in “destructive things” and realizes that he may have to be punished for his actions in the past.

On the evening of December 20, ONT aired the names of some released political prisoners and showed their faces. All of them said a similar text on camera: allegedly, “extremist organizations in the EU” illegally used their data (meaning that human rights activists in exile recognized them as political prisoners). All five of them say that they have prepared complaints to the EU, Lithuanian and Polish courts, the European Court of Human Rights, “European prosecutor’s office” and show the printed text of the complaint in the frame. It is not excluded that the condition for the release of each of them was such a performance on the air of state TV.

Best regards,
iSANS team