Belarus Review by iSANS — December 15, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 8 and 14 December at least three Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded flying in Belarusian airspace. No reports were made of their crash or interception.

On 8 December, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported that during a visit to Belarus by an Iranian military delegation led by Mochammada Achadi, Head of the Department for International Relations and Defence Diplomacy of Iran’s General Staff, the third meeting of the Joint Belarusian–Iranian Interagency Commission on Military Cooperation was held. According to the ministry, the sides discussed the current state and prospects of Belarus–Iran military cooperation and agreed on a plan of joint activities for 2026.

On 9 December, a meeting of the Security Council took place. During the meeting, Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that the situation on the Belarusian–Ukrainian border had stabilised. His remarks were quoted by BelTA. “The situation on the Belarusian–Ukrainian border has more or less stabilised. Although there are still plenty of problems there. Yesterday [the Chairman of the State Border Committee] reported to me that there are many issues that need to be resolved on a mobilisation basis: building up the border, which has been abandoned on the Ukrainian side, constructing border posts, and equipping border guards,” Lukashenka said. He clarified that despite the stabilisation, the Belarusian Armed Forces continue to be involved in border protection.

Following the meeting, Lukashenka approved Belarus’s Defence Plan for 2026–2030. This was announced by Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Pavel Muraveika. He explained that the Security Council reviewed the results of a year’s work by the General Staff, the Ministry of Defence, and republican state authorities on defence planning for the next five-year period.

A joint conference of the Russian and Belarusian Ministries of Defence titled “Building Psychological Readiness for Combat Operations” is taking place at the Research Institute of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported this on 11 December. Participants include representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces, including psychologists from formations and military units, cadets and faculty of the Belarusian Military Academy, as well as representatives of the State Border Committee. At the conference, specialists from the psychological service of the Russian Armed Forces shared their experience in organising psychological work within military units.

On 12 December, a handover of new equipment to electronic warfare (EW) units took place in Polatsk. According to photos and videos published by the Ministry of Defence, the troops received four R-934UM2 Groza-6 automated jamming stations, two Groza-Z1 mobile systems for protecting facilities against unmanned aerial vehicles, two R-936 Aero VHF communications radio-monitoring and jamming systems, and one Optima-2.2 electronic intelligence and suppression station. The equipment was delivered to the 10th Separate EW Battalion and the 228th EW Regiment. According to Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Pavel Muraveika, electronic warfare is a priority area in the development of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He also announced planned future deliveries of equipment. “For the upcoming five-year period of force development and construction, the delivery of tactical-level EW systems, as well as various assets capable of detecting unmanned aerial vehicles and exerting effects on them, has been planned,” he stated.

On 13 December, the press service of the State Military-Industrial Committee reported the completion of a working visit to China by a delegation led by its chairman Dzmitry Pantus. During the visit, a number of high-level meetings and negotiations were held with the leadership of Chinese defence companies and corporations. The meetings were conducted behind closed doors. It was noted that the sides “synchronised their positions” across a broad range of areas of cooperation, including space, in a “traditionally friendly atmosphere.” In addition, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus and China’s National Development and Reform Commission.

On 14 December, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence reported that a delegation headed by Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin departed for an official visit to Zimbabwe. A series of meetings and negotiations is planned.

On 12–13 December, US President’s Special Envoy John Coale and Christopher Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern Europe, visited Minsk. The talks marked a qualitative shift in relations between Minsk and Washington.

Following the meetings, John Coale announced the lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash as a step toward normalising relations, stating that “as normalisation proceeds, more sanctions will be lifted.” He also underscored the prospect of further easing of restrictions as rapprochement continues, thereby formalising an economic incentive for the regime without linking it to the EU’s sanctions position. As of the time of publication, no formal decision by US authorities had been issued.

A major practical outcome concerned the humanitarian track. Following the talks, 123 political prisoners were released and expelled from the country. Among the most prominent figures were former presidential contender Viktar Babaryka, Maria Kalesnikava, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. Most of those released were transferred to Ukraine, where they were received by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR). The United States views such releases as a key indicator of progress toward normalisation. Further details on the releases are addressed in the “Human rights and international response” section.

Beyond broader normalisation, the parties also discussed the Russia–Ukraine war. The US side positioned Aliaksandr Lukashenka as a potentially valuable interlocutor on Russia, given his long-standing relationship with Vladimir Putin. In parallel, Minsk signalled, via Belarus’s Permanent Representative to the UN Valiantsin Rybakou, a broader normalisation agenda that would also include “business we can jointly develop”.

Overall, John Coale described the talks as “very productive.” Aliaksandr Lukashenka, for his part, personally and emotionally welcomed Coale’s appointment as US Special Envoy for Belarus, readily shifting discussions into a less formal, non-protocol format.

Following the meetings, Lukashenka gave an interview to Greta Conway Van Susteren on Newsmax TV. The interview has not yet been published.

Taken together, the visit’s outcomes point to the consolidation of a course toward a limited thaw in bilateral relations, based on step-by-step reciprocity. Minsk is trading prisoner releases and readiness for further gradual de-freezing for sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement .

The crisis on the Belarus–Lithuania border continues to evolve around issues of airspace, logistics, and diplomacy.

On 9 December, Lithuania declared a nationwide state of emergency due to repeated incursions of smuggling-related meteorological balloons, citing the consolidation of law enforcement agencies and the possibility of more active involvement of the armed forces. In parallel, additional restrictive measures against Belarus are being considered. In particular, on 7 December, Lithuania’s Ministry of the Interior publicly floated the option of suspending regular bus services with Belarus in coordination with Poland and Latvia.

President Gitanas Nausėda also stated that a mid-month meeting of the State Defence Council would discuss the freezing or confiscation of Belarusian assets in Lithuania as an “asymmetric response,” without specifying the nature of those assets.

At the same time, on 10 December, a protest by Lithuanian transport companies took place in Vilnius, aimed at pressuring the authorities to seek a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

In response, Aliaksandr Lukashenka convened a meeting of the Security Council, which also addressed the situation with Lithuania. Minsk reiterated its demand that the crisis be resolved through bilateral diplomatic negotiations “without third parties”. In addition, broader demands were voiced toward Vilnius beyond border-related issues: 1) the return of Belarusian fire engines detained in Lithuania and intended for Zimbabwe; 2) reimbursement for Belarusian investments in the port of Klaipėda (according to various estimates, Belarusian state companies previously owned up to 30% of the port); and 3) the normalisation of operations of a Belarusian sanatorium in Druskininkai. These issues had not previously featured prominently in the crisis.

Attempts at direct diplomatic engagement remain contradictory. After the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Vienna, the foreign ministries of Lithuania and Belarus exchanged mutual accusations regarding the refusal of direct engagement.

Some expectations were raised by US mediation efforts. Following talks in Minsk, US President’s Special Envoy John Coale stated that Lukashenka had agreed to “do everything possible” to stop balloon flights into Lithuania and had also signalled readiness to make concessions regarding Lithuanian trucks detained in Belarus.

Nevertheless, on 13 December, Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there were no discussions within the EU about easing sanctions against Belarus.

Against this backdrop, the situation with hybrid migration pressure remains notably calm. Polish border services have reported zero attempts at illegal crossings on the Belarus–Poland border. The statistics were marred only by reports of an underground tunnel through which 180 migrants attempted to enter Poland on 11 December.

On 11 December, Reuters reported that amid increased pressure by the Donald Trump administration on Nicolás Maduro, a scenario is being considered under which Maduro could relocate to Minsk. Against this backdrop, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held two meetings within 17 days with Venezuela’s ambassador to Russia, Jesús Rafael Salazar Velásquez, reminding him of an agreement to “coordinate certain issues” with Caracas and allowing for Maduro’s possible involvement. At the same time, sources reported that during a conversation with Trump on 21 November, Maduro allegedly expressed readiness to step down on condition of full legal amnesty for himself and his family and the provision of USD 200 million. On 13 December, Minsk, via Belarus’s Permanent Representative to the UN Valiantsin Rybakou, publicly confirmed that the Venezuela issue had been discussed with the US delegation led by John Coale as a field for “mediation and escalation prevention.” Against this background, Moscow reiterated its support for Maduro.

On 18–19 December 2025, Minsk will host the second session of the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. Lukashenka is due to deliver his annual Address to the Belarusian people and the Assembly. The approval of the 2026–2030 five-year socio-economic development programme is scheduled, following a prolonged preparatory process and the postponement of the session from April. According to internal monitoring, despite an extensive information campaign, public interest in the Assembly remains low, while the political significance of the event is preserved.

The Partizanski district Court of Minsk declared the official website of the Council of Europe to be extremist. The YouTube channels of the Russian edition of SOTAvision and of the Mogilev.media were also included in the list of extremist resources.

Artist Aksana Shaliapina was sentenced to three years of imprisonment for helping political prisoners. She was detained in June 2025 and placed in a pre-trial detention centre. Her trial began in November, and the verdict was announced on 8 December.

Another ten people have been recognised as political prisoners, including Christian preacher Alyaksei Jahayla, who was convicted in connection with the Belarusian Hajun case. As of 10 December, 1,227 people in Belarus had the status of political prisoners, according to “Viasna” Human Rights Centre.

“Viasna” human rights defenders have learned the names of five more Ukrainian citizens who were previously pardoned and deported from Belarus. According to human rights activists, all of them were convicted under political charges. Of the five people, “Viasna”  previously knew about the detention of Nadezhda Nikolyuk, who was detained by KGB officers in Brest almost immediately after surgery to remove lymphoma from her armpit. She was detained at the clinic, where she came to see a doctor. Her course of chemotherapy was interrupted. She was told: “With your diagnosis, you definitely won’t make it out alive.” “They dragged her to interrogations every day, practically depriving her of food,” a woman who was with Nikolyuk at the Akrestsina Detention Center in 2024 told human rights activists.

The Homel Regional Court has found Anastasia Kashchina, a refugee from Lysychansk, Ukraine, guilty of facilitating extremist activities. She was probably sentenced to a restriction of freedom or imprisonment.

On 12 December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added 18 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. 15 of them were accused of “facilitating extremist activities”. There are now 6,084 names on the list.

The KGB added seven more people to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities”. At the moment, there are 1,398 people on the list, of which 660 are Belarusians.

On 13 December, after two days of negotiations between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the U.S. delegation, 123 people were released from imprisonment in Belarus and deported. Earlier reports had suggested that 151 people were considered for the release. Among those pardoned were Viktar Babaryka, banker, public figure, and presidential contender in 2020, Maria Kalesnikava and Maksim Znak, members of his campaign staff, Ales Bialiatski, the chair of “Viasna” Human Rights Centre and the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize-2022, political scientist Alyaksandr Feduta, the editor-in-chief of tut.by Maryna Zolotava, and others. Among those released were five citizens of Ukraine, a Polish citizen Roman Galuza, as well as citizens of Latvia, Lithuania, the USA, Australia, and Japan. The Polish authorities reported that Andrzej Poczobut was not among those pardoned. “We are glad that among the people who regained their freedom today are, in particular, a Polish citizen and Ales Bialiatski. This is important and good news. Together with our partners, we consistently continue to seek the release of Andrzej Poczobut,” said Maciej Wewiór, a spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry. Most of the prisoners – 109 people –  were taken to Ukraine. After the necessary medical treatment, they will be taken to Poland and Lithuania, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War in Ukraine said. At first, the released people were supposed to be brought to Lithuania, but the Belarusian side changed the departure route at the last moment. Only nine political prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, were taken to Lithuania. The list of the 109 Belarusian prisoners brought to Ukraine was published by the Ukrainian project “I Want to Live”, which is engaged in prisoner exchange. According to Special Representative of President Donald Trump in Belarus John Coale, another 1,000 people may be released in the coming months. “It’s a logistical problem to get about a thousand people out and get them where they need to go. I think it’s more than possible, and I think it’s likely, but it will take a little more time – maybe it will happen in a few months,” he said.

The Bysol foundation announced an emergency fundraising campaign for former political prisoners. “Many have their health undermined, they are confused and disoriented, without money and the necessary documents. Many do not even have a passport or a certificate of release. They cannot obtain legal status, see a doctor, receive a pension, or open a bank account. They need our help,” the foundation said. More than 240,000 Euro have already been collected. The fundraising continues. Food, personal hygiene products, and mobile phones were purchased and handed over by representatives of the public organisation „Kalinovtsy” and soldiers of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment to political prisoners taken to Ukraine. In addition to the Kalinouski Regiment, assistance to former political prisoners is provided by a large number of human rights and humanitarian organisations, including the Country for Life charitable foundation, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre (hotline), Volnyja, Ineedhelpby, Dissidentby, Dapamoga, as well as other structures and volunteer groups. The Belarusian Solidarity Center in Warsaw will provide assistance to former Belarusian political prisoners and their families who arrive in Poland. It emphasised that release from prison is only the beginning of the path: “There are new challenges ahead: emigration, legalisation, recovery from trauma. Therefore, we would like to become one of the pillars that former political prisoners can rely on.” Assistance will be provided in several areas: the organisation of temporary accommodation after arrival in Poland; assistance in legal matters, paperwork, and orientation in the Polish legal system; study of the Polish language; and psychological support.

The Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; the Special Rapporteur on the right to education; the Special Rapporteur on the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health; the Special Rapporteur on the right to privacy; the Independent Expert on protection against violence and discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity; and the Working Group on discrimination against women and girls addressed a joint letter to the authorities of Belarus, raising concerns about the bill “On Amendments to Codes on Issues of Administrative Liability”, which proposes introducing administrative liability for “propaganda of homosexuality, sex change, childlessness, and paedophilia”. They underlined that the bill appears to be incompatible with Belarus’ obligations under international human rights law, including those related to the right to equality and non-discrimination, the right to freedom of expression, the right to the highest attainable standard of mental and physical health, the right to privacy, and the prohibition of arbitrary detention. The experts expressed their concern about the potentially disproportionate negative impact of the bill on women’s rights, the rights of the child, and on the human rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, queer, intersex, and other (LGBTQI+) persons. The experts noted with concern that Belarus government proceeded with introducing this bill to the parliament notwithstanding the fact that the current and former Special Rapporteurs on the situation of human rights in Belarus and the Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus have flagged the potential incompatibility of this bill with Belarus’ obligations under the international human rights law and stressed that the bill follows the adoption by the Ministry of Culture of Decree No. 24 of 19 March 2024, which broadened the definition of “pornography” to include “non-traditional sexual relations and/or sexual behaviour”, resulting in a wave of criminal prosecutions against LGBTQI+ persons merely for posting their photos online, fully dressed and without engaging in sexual acts. The proposed administrative sanctions for the display or expression of gender-diverse identities, same-sex or bisexual relationships, and childlessness are premised on discriminatory assumptions that such identities or family choices threaten public morality or the institution of the family. The experts urged Belarus to remove from the bill “On Amendments to Codes on Issues of Administrative Liability” the provisions related to “propaganda of homosexuality, sex change, childlessness, and paedophilia”.

On 8 December, independent UN human rights experts, including Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus; Irene Khan, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression; Gina Romero, Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association; Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, denounced the deportation, on 11 September 2025, to Lithuania of Belarussian prisoners released from prison. Many had their Belarusian identity documents confiscated and some were included on the official list of individuals involved in extremist activities. “The expulsion of the country’s own citizens and the arbitrary confiscation of their identity documents violate several human rights, including the right to a nationality, freedom of movement, and the right not to be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful interference with one’s privacy,” the experts said. “This is yet another measure taken by the Belarusian authorities which leads to a risk of statelessness,” the experts said, recalling the 2022 and 2023 constitutional and legislative amendments that permitted the revocation of citizenship following in absentia convictions without a fair trial for “extremism” or for causing “severe damage to the interests of Belarus”. They also critically referred to the 2023 Presidential Decree on consular services, which ended the issuance and renewal of identity documents by Belarusian consular services. The experts added that all these measures run counter to the objectives of the 1954 Convention on the Status of Stateless Persons and the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, two treaties which Belarus agreed to ratify during its Universal Periodic Review in 2020. “We call on the authorities to immediately cease adopting and to revoke all the legislative, regulatory, and law-enforcement measures that create a risk of statelessness. This includes the urgent need to amend domestic counter-terrorism and anti-extremism legislation, which is incompatible with international human rights law,” the experts said.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said at the conference “Belarus: Laying the foundations for democratic change”, held in the European Parliament on 8 December, that in the coming years, the EU will provide additional assistance to the people of Belarus in the amount of 30 million Euro. Thus, the total amount of EU support since 2020 will exceed 200 million Euro. According to Kos, this assistance will allow Belarusian human rights defenders to help victims of repression, and journalists and civil society to continue to fight for democratic change in the country. Kos also stressed that the EU plays a leading role in providing support to Belarusian political prisoners after their release. “We have provided legal and medical assistance to more than 7,500 people, scholarships to more than 3,500 students, and supported thousands of companies in exile,” she concluded.

On 9 December, a shelter for Belarusian political refugees and their families and the Belarusian Democratic Community Center, opened in Florence. The opening ceremony was attended by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, as well as representatives of the city and regional administrations, trade unions, and political parties. The shelter is already inhabited by repressed Belarusians and a former volunteer of the Kalinouski Regiment.

Belarus ranks fourth in the world in terms of the number of imprisoned journalists, according to the human rights organisation Reporters Without Borders. According to their data, as of December 2025, 1,503 journalists in 47 countries were in custody. The top three were China (121 journalists behind bars), Russia (48 journalists) and Myanmar (47 journalists). Belarus ranks fourth (33 journalists), followed by Vietnam (28 journalists), Azerbaijan (25 journalists) and Iran (21 journalists).

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received the Margaret Thatcher Award in Rome, which is awarded annually for outstanding leadership and commitment to the principles of freedom. During her speech, she noted that the 2020 Belarusian protests are often called the “revolution with a woman’s face”, and dedicated the award to all Belarusian women who continue to fight for freedom. “Margaret Thatcher said that courage is the most important virtue. Today I dedicate this award to the courageous Belarusian women who are fighting for freedom. Those who don’t follow the crowd, but pave the way. Women like Maryja Kalesnikava, who tore up her Belarusian passport and threw it out of the car window so that she would not be deported from the country. Like Katsyaryna Andreeva, who continued to broadcast live from the protest action while she was being arrested by Lukashenka’s riot police. Like Nina Bahinskaya, an elderly woman who protested in the streets over and over again, despite multiple arrests and sentences. Our own iron ladies. Many of these women remain behind bars. And we do not stop fighting for their release. Just as we will not stop fighting for our country,” Tsikhanouskaya said.

The European Parliament is preparing a resolution on the situation of the political prisoner, veteran opposition politician, and candidate in the 2010 presidential elections Mikalai Statkevich. This was announced by Anatol Lyabedzka, Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on parliamentary cooperation and constitutional reform. “The necessary steps have been taken, and the preliminary work has been carried out. We are waiting for the final decision, because there is a lot of competition, both in terms of topics and regions. And we hear voices that Belarus is already too much on the agenda of the European Parliament,” he said. Mikalai Statkevich was among the 52 prisoners who were released on 11 September. All the prisoners were taken to Lithuania. However, Mikalai Statkevich refused to leave, he stepped out of the bus and stayed in Belarus. He spent several hours between two checkpoints, and was later taken away by masked men. Later, information appeared that Mikalai Statkevich had been returned to a colony.

The head of EU diplomacy Kaja Kallas welcomed the release of political prisoners on 13 December. “I share the joy of their families and friends. The credit for this belongs to the United States,” she wrote. – “Now it is necessary to release all those who are still being unfairly detained”. “This news from Belarus fills me with joy: the release of Maryja Kalesnikava, Ales Bialiatski, and other political prisoners is long overdue and is the success of a courageous civil society fighting for freedom and civil rights. We are on their side,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote on Twitter. “I am very pleased with the release of Maryja Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka, Ales Bialiatski, Maksim Znak, and more than 100 other prisoners in Belarus. I thank the U.S. government for its efforts,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul wrote on Twitter. Like Kallas, he wrote that the goal of the German government “remains the release of all those who are still imprisoned for political reasons”.

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Best regards, iSANS team