Belarus Review by iSANS — December 1, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 24 and 30 November, at least two Russian drones were detected in Belarusian airspace. No crashes or interceptions were reported.

On 25 November, during a meeting with personnel of the “Berkut” Special Purpose Detachment, Internal Troops Commander Mikalai Karpiankou announced the creation of new UAV units. “In the near future, every special unit will establish unmanned aviation centres bringing together the most experienced operators of both reconnaissance and strike drones,” the Internal Troops press service quoted him as saying. Earlier, in March 2025, Karpiankou told state media that three UAV application centres had already been created within the Internal Troops.

On the same day, the Belarusian Defence Ministry reported the arrival of another batch of Tor-M2K surface-to-air missile (SAM) system batteries. The delivery was presented as an example of productive military-technical cooperation with Russia within the framework of improving the joint air defence system. Based on published photos, the new battery has been deployed with the 15th Air Defence Missile Brigade, responsible for covering Minsk and its surrounding areas.

On 28 November, the local outlet Astravetskaya Praŭda reported that a Tor-M2K battery had also been delivered to the 1146th Air Defence Missile Regiment, with the unit expected to assume combat duty shortly. With this delivery, the Belarusian Armed Forces now operate nine Tor-M2K batteries: six in the 1146th Regiment and three in the 15th Brigade. The systems protect strategic sites such as the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant and the Mozyr Oil Refinery, and reinforce long-range SAM positions as part of a layered air defence architecture. Further Tor-M2K deliveries to Belarus are likely.

On 26 November, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin met his Kyrgyz counterpart Ruslan Mukambetov in Bishkek. According to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, Khrenin invited Kyrgyz servicemen to participate in two CSTO exercises to be hosted by Belarus in October 2026: the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2026” peacekeeping drill and the “Barrier-2026” specialised exercise involving CBRN defence and medical support units.

On 27 November, the Ministry of Defence announced that the 619th storage, repair, modernisation, and disposal base held a ceremony to hand over new and upgraded communications equipment to the troops. More than 30 upgraded systems were delivered. According to the Head of the General Staff’s Communications Directorate Vadzim Ramaniv, serial modernisation of BMP-1KSh command-and-staff vehicles has begun, with the first batch of ten vehicles already transferred to the Armed Forces. In 2026, the entire fleet of BMP-1KSh vehicles is expected to be replaced with modernised versions.

Also on 27 November, on the sidelines of the CSTO summit in Bishkek, State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandar Valfovich stated that the delivery of the “Oreshnik” missile system to Belarus would be carried out on schedule. Responding to journalists, he said: “Undoubtedly. Presidents do not take such decisions lightly. The decision of our presidents — of Belarus and Russia — is not up for discussion. Everything is proceeding according to plan, and by the end of the year the task will be fully completed,” according to BelTA.

Valfovich also noted that Belarus is considering the creation of cyber forces within the Armed Forces or another component of the national military organisation. “[Lukashenka] supports this. Preparations for the relevant meeting will begin in the first quarter of next year,” he added, without providing further details.

On 28 November, the 1371st Engineer Base held a ceremony to hand over new engineering equipment to the Belarusian Armed Forces. According to the Defence Ministry, more than 100 units of new engineering machinery were delivered. Photos and video indicate that the core of the delivery consisted of loaders and excavators produced by the Belarusian manufacturer AMKODOR.

On 30 November, the Head of the Defence Ministry’s Department of International Military Cooperation Valery Revenka outlined updated priorities in the military-political sphere in an interview with VoenTV. He stated that relations with the EU and NATO remain “highly problematic” due to alleged Western attempts to “subordinate Belarus to their interests,” subsequent isolation policies, and “economic, political, and moral damage.” According to Revenka, EU policies are “directed at escalation and preparation for war,” which he cited as the reason most EU states declined invitations to observe the “Zapad-2025” exercise: “it is not in their interest to see the realities.” He stressed, however, that Belarus remains “committed to constructive engagement” and is ready for dialogue with NATO members “to ensure security in the Eastern European region,” noting that military attachés from ten NATO countries are accredited in Minsk. Separately, Revenka highlighted deepening military cooperation with Russia, China, Myanmar, Iran, and African states, and described the Minsk Eurasian Security Conference as an important “dialogue platform” for communicating Belarus’s position to Western audiences.

From 26 to 28 November, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was on a working visit to Germany. In meetings with Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, and the cross-party group “For a Democratic Belarus,” discussions focused on ongoing repression in Belarus, the humanitarian track for the release of political prisoners, and further support for independent media and civil society. The German side reaffirmed its consistent support for the democratic forces, expressed readiness to expand visa facilitation for Belarusians, and confirmed continued participation in rehabilitation programmes for released political prisoners. Tsikhanouskaya stressed the need to consider Belarusian interests in negotiations on Ukraine, underlining that any peace must ensure the restoration of Belarus’s sovereignty and the withdrawal of Russian forces and nuclear weapons. In the Bundestag, she proposed expanding internship programmes for young Belarusian politicians, supporting “godparenthood” initiatives for political prisoners, and strengthening engagement with the Belarusian diaspora. Together with Yulia Navalnaya, she received the Menschen in Europa award, dedicating it to Belarusians who continue the struggle for freedom.

At a press conference in Warsaw on 25 November, Tsikhanouskaya presented the democratic forces’ position on a potential peace plan between Ukraine and Russia, the strategy for securing the release of political prisoners, and the Cabinet’s priorities for 2026. She emphasised that Belarus seeks a peace that restores its sovereignty and eliminates continued Russian control. Tsikhanouskaya reported regular contacts with US Special Envoy John Coale, noting his efforts to secure releases and halt repression. She underlined that the democratic structures have prepared the necessary infrastructure to receive freed detainees and provide humanitarian assistance. Concluding her remarks, she reiterated that the only way out of the crisis remains a national dialogue and an end to repression, and affirmed the democratic forces’ readiness to work toward this consistently and systematically.

At the CSTO summit in Bishkek on 27 November, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a 90-minute meeting with Vladimir Putin focused on Donald Trump’s proposed “peace plan.” He said Putin had shared two versions of the plan, which he described as a “good foundation,” while claiming that Kyiv was “torpedoing the peace process.” Belarus was again offered as a venue for negotiations, framed by Lukashenka as enjoying broad support “except from Zelensky.” He further accused the EU and the UK of lacking the will for peace and of being “unable to win the war.”

The summit concluded with the signing of 15 documents, including the Collective Security Council Declaration, the Collective Security Strategy for 2026–2030, and a plan for the development of military cooperation. The CSTO’s political messaging aligned closely with that of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s visit to Myanmar on 28 November became the first trip by a European leader to the country since the 2021 military coup — a fact that gave the visit particular symbolic weight for the junta in Naypyidaw. Lukashenka presented the trip as an expansion of Belarus’s “outer arc” partnerships, emphasising trade and economic cooperation. Discussions focused on supplies of machinery and agricultural products, industrial cooperation, and possible engagement in the military-technical sphere. The political and humanitarian situation in Myanmar — including mass repression and the ongoing internal armed conflict — was entirely omitted from the official agenda.

Lukashenka’s working visit to Oman (28 November – 1 December) was covered only minimally, yet the substance indicated a clear priority for economic and financial interests. In Muscat, talks centred on implementing the bilateral roadmap and securing Minsk’s access to the SOHAR port infrastructure for re-export operations — an important tool for sanctions evasion and diversification of foreign trade. Oman’s confidential financial environment remains one of the key destinations for the informal economic activities of Lukashenka’s circle, underscored by the presence of Viktar and Mikalai Lukashenka in the delegation.

The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (18–19 December) is set to become the key political event of the winter, comprising three clusters of decisions. First, Lukashenka will deliver his annual address to Parliament and the public — the main policy-setting document for the year. Second, delegates will approve the 2026–2030 socio-economic development programme, which remains a point of contention between the government and the Assembly’s working group, reflecting disagreements over the degree of centralisation and development priorities. Third, the Assembly will address personnel matters within its exclusive competence, including the election of a new Presidium member and approval of nominations submitted by the highest courts. Lukashenka has publicly expressed concern about the potential for institutional conflict between the Assembly and the presidency — drawing parallels with the late-Soviet system, where the expansion of “people’s councils” generated internal power clashes.

Between 25 and 30 November, the crisis along the Belarus–Lithuania border entered a protracted phase. On 25 November, Lukashenka, Security Council State Secretary Valfovich, and the MFA’s Head Maksim Ryzhankou effectively linked the release of roughly 1,818 Lithuanian trucks to Vilnius’s readiness to engage in political dialogue at the foreign-ministry level. Minsk justified the demand by claiming that Lithuania’s unilateral closure and reopening of the border, without prior notification, breached agreed procedures. Lithuanian trucks entering after the reopening continue to operate normally.

Lithuania, for its part, seeks to maintain a policy of isolating Belarus. President Gitanas Nausėda called the situation “technical” and ruled out political-level negotiations. Instead, Vilnius is prioritising appeals to the European Commission, the International Court of Justice, and new sanctions measures. On 26 November, Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys argued that Minsk was attempting to use the crisis to erode isolation and push for sanctions relief. The Lithuanian MFA submitted proposals for expanding EU restrictions on Belarus. On 27–28 November, the government discussed national sanctions, a possible referral to the ICJ, and coordinated border closures with Poland and Latvia. Meanwhile, the head of Lithuania’s State Border Guard Service, Rustamas Liubajevas, acknowledged that the problem of meteorological balloons had been “overstated.” On 30 November, Vilnius appealed to the European Commission for assistance in returning the stranded trucks and tightening sanctions.

The situation was further complicated by a fire at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant in Lithuania, which Minsk used to accuse Vilnius of “non-transparency.” Operations at Vilnius Airport were suspended several times due to radar signals resembling the trajectories of smuggling-related aerostats — a reminder of the original trigger of the crisis.

Along the Polish–Belarusian border, conditions remain calm. According to Poland’s Border Guard, only one attempted illegal crossing was recorded between 28 and 30 November.

Starting 1 October, new rules for calculating housing and communal services fees have been in effect in Belarus for apartments whose owners have been recognised as “spongers”, that is, those who are not employed. Previously, they paid their part of housing and communal services according to special tariffs that were several times higher than those for the employed, but now all bills for heating, hot water, and gas, for apartments where they are registered are paid in accordance with these special tariffs, even when other people who are employed are registered and live there. The rules were changed by Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 465 and are aimed, as explained by the Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, at “involving citizens who are not employed in labour activities”. “Spongers” include not only those who have not worked for more than three months, but also those who work abroad.

Aleh Huryn, a former investigator from Nyasvizh, was convicted on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”. The verdict was announced on 3 November by the Minsk Regional Court. He was sentenced to three years of restriction of freedom. According to human rights activists, his persecution is linked to the Belarusian Hajun case.

Vital Kavalenka, a political prisoner from Yelsk, was sentenced to three years of imprisonment in a high-security colony in the Belarusian Hajun case. Kavalenka was detained on 13 May 2025 and charged with “facilitating extremist activities”.

Christian preacher from Homel Alyaksei Jahayla was found guilty of “facilitating extremist activities”. The persecution is probably related to the Belarusian Hajun case. The exact verdict is still unknown, but Jahayla is being held in custody, which means that he was sentenced either to imprisonment or to restriction of freedom with referral to a special institution.

The Homel Regional Court sentenced Alyaksandr Rusakovich from Minsk, accused of “facilitating extremist activities” and insulting Lukashenka. The trial was held in Homel, as  courts of Minsk, according to human rights activists, transferred some of the cases to the regions due to the workload. The exact sentence is unknown, however, according to available information, the court did not impose imprisonment. It is assumed that Rusakovich was sentenced to restriction of freedom without a referral to a correctional institution. The essence of the charges is being clarified. There is a possibility that they are related to the Belarusian Hajun case.

Human rights activists claim to have information about 124 confirmed defendants in the Belarusian Hajun case who have been taken into custody. The total number of detainees in the case is much higher, and arrests continue throughout the country. The case is being investigated under the charge of the “facilitation of extremist activities”.

The Belarusian authorities confirmed that they have returned veteran opposition politician and candidate in the 2010 presidenial elections Mikalai Statkevich to the colony. On 11 September  2025, he was pardoned and released along with other political prisoners, but he refused to leave Belarus. According to a letter received by relatives from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the politician continues to “serve his sentence according to the verdict of the Homel Regional Court of 14 December 2021”. The letter did not say which colony Mikalai Statkevich is in. This is the first news about him that has appeared in the last two and a half months. Leanid Marozau, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s legal adviser, called the situation with Mikalai Statkevich a demonstration of lies on the part of the regime. “What is happening to Statkevich is a clear demonstration of the regime’s lies: he was formally pardoned, but actually hidden. While the authorities are hiding his whereabouts, no words of Lukashenka have any weight,” Marozau said. Tsikhanouskaya’s office called on the Lukashenka regime to immediately identify the exact location of Statkevich’s detention and allow relatives, lawyers, and doctors to visit him.

Journalist Pavel Dabravolski had the term of his detention extended. Dabravolski was detained this January and charged with “high treason”. Dabravolski is a former Naviny.by journalist. He previously collaborated with various independent media. During the 2020 protests, he was detained and held administratively liable in connection with his professional activities. Dabravolski left Belarus in 2021, but returned to Minsk in October 2024.

A criminal investigation was initiated against Iryna Khalip, a special correspondent of Novaya Gazeta Europe. According to Khalip, on 27 November, police officers searched her parents’ apartment in Minsk. They presented a resolution stating that the search was being carried out as part of a criminal case against their daughter. Police officers commented that a case was opened on “extremist” charges. The details of the charges are unknown. Police officers interrogated Khalip’s mother, Lucyna Byalzatskaya. They tried to find out where Khalip was, and asked for her phone number. No objects that could be related to Khalip’s work were found in the apartment. “This is a very clear signal: remember that you have a family in Belarus before you slander our prosperous regime. Dictatorships all over the world like to send such signals. It’s a mistake to say that a person who has managed to flee the country is already out of reach. Those whose relatives remain as hostages in the country of origin are just as vulnerable, knowing that they cannot protect their loved ones from persecution,” Khalip said.

On 25 November 2025, an auction was held in Brest for the sale of the apartment of political prisoner Vital Chopik. The auction started at 9:00 a.m. Minsk time. Almost until the evening, the two participants admitted to the auction did not show any activity. It was only at 17:39 that the first bid was made, which raised the price of the apartment by 5% from the initial price. Over the next half hour, both participants increased their offers slightly. When no new bids were received within 30 minutes, the auction was closed. Vital Chopik is a resident of Brest who attended politically motivated trials. Last November, he was sentenced to seven years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and fined 1,000 basic units (40,000 rubles, or approximately 10,100 Euro) for “facilitating extremist activities” and “actively participating in actions grossly violating public order”. In this regard, the authorities decided to sell Chopik’s apartment.

The head of the historical “Knight’s Club ‘Barysfen’”, reenactor Pavel Stankevich, was not released after the end of the term of his administrative arrest. The reasons for the detention and initiation of an administrative case are not known. Around the same dates, two more people who are related to the Barysfen club were detained, but there is no information about them yet. On 4 November, it became known that Stankevich’s personal accounts and the pages of his projects on social media were added to the “list of extremist materials”.

On 28 November, the Interior Ministry added 23 more people to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among them, 14 people were convicted of “facilitating extremist activities”. There are now 6,042 names on the list.

The KGB added three more people to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities”. These are Valery Hryhoris, Alyaksandr Valchok, and Uladzimir Kushner. Human rights activists have recognised them as political prisoners. There are currently 1,397 people on the “terrorist list”, 658 of whom are Belarusians.

Vasil Verameychik, a former soldier of the Kalinouski Regiment, was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment. After being discharged from the army, Verameychik tried to legalise himself in Lithuania, but there he was recognised as a threat to national security for having served in the Belarusian army. He was banned from entering the EU and left for Vietnam. Verameychik was detained in Vietnam on 13 November 2024 and extradited to Belarus on 14 November 2024.

It became known that back in July 2025, the Human Rights Committee issued views in the case of 15 applicants who were fined by the Belarusian courts for hanging white-red-white flags in their windows. Due to the similarity, the applications were combined into one case, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. The applicants claimed that Belarus, as a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, had violated their rights under Articles 9 (right to liberty and security of person), 14 (prohibition of discrimination), 19 (freedom of expression) and 21 (right to peaceful assembly). Belarus denounced the Optional Protocol to the Covenant, which allows individual appeals to be filed against Belarus, on 8 February  2023, but in the present case the applications were filed before the denunciation took effect. The Committee noted that it had already established a violation of Article 19 in similar cases. The Committee requested from Belarus information on the measures taken to implement the views. Belarus was invited to publish the views and to disseminate them widely. The Committee also stated that Belarus is obliged to compensate the applicants for fines and court costs. The Committee did not support the allegations of violations of Articles 9, 14, and 21 of the Covenant.

The Country for Life Foundation is fundraising for gifts for the children of political prisoners as part of the “Christmas Mail” campaign. The campaign is being held for the fifth year in a row. The gifts are intended for the children of political prisoners and released political prisoners under the age of 16. It was stressed that children receive gifts as part of the campaign, money is not transferred. “Every child can send their Christmas wish letter, and together with you we will do everything possible to make their dreams come true,” the foundation said.

On 27 November, the Administrative Council of the International Labor Organisation (ILO) demanded that the Belarusian authorities return the passports of former political prisoners and leaders of independent trade unions Alyaksandr Yarashuk and Hennadz Fyadynich, as well as restore their pensions. This was announced by Yarashuk, Chairman of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions, and member of the ILO Administrative Council.

On 27 November, during her visit to Germany, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was awarded the Menschen in Europa “Brave Women for Freedom and Democracy” award. The ceremony was traditionally held in the German city of Passau as part of the annual Menschen in Europa programme, which celebrates people who have made a significant contribution to the protection of human rights and democratic values. In her speech, Tsikhanouskaya dedicated the award to all Belarusians. “It is people who determine Belarus and its future, not the criminal regime of Lukashenka. People who are desperately fighting every day to make Belarus free, independent, and European. And today I dedicate this award to my compatriots,” she said.

On 29 November, the Representative Office of the European Union in Belarus, as well as the Embassies of Great Britain, Sweden, Germany, and Lithuania, issued a statement dedicated to the International Day of Women Human Rights Defenders, in which they urged Belarus not to use the judicial system to criminalise human rights activities. The statement noted that many activists are being persecuted and face unfounded criminal cases. “Activists are sentenced to long prison terms for their human rights work, are included in a “terrorist” list to further restrict their rights, and suffer from serious health problems in prison. The judicial system should not be used to criminalise human rights activities or suppress dissent,” the statement said.

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Best regards, iSANS team