Belarus Review by iSANS — December 02, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 45)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS). 

Russian drones from Ukraine and Russia continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus. During the week, at least 50 drones of the “Shahed” type flew over the airspace of Belarus. Thus, on November 25, 26 drones flew in. November 26 – 17 drones. November 27 – two drones. On November 28 – five drones. Afterward, most of them flew to Ukraine. According to unconfirmed information, during the week, three drones could have been shot down by the Armed Forces of Belarus.

On November 26, it was reported that a military delegation from Qatar visited Minsk. During the visit, the delegation visited the commands of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces, as well as one of the units of the Armed Forces of Belarus. It was noted that “the event will strengthen relations in the military sphere and intensify contacts with Qatari colleagues in the areas of mutual interest. On November 28, Chairman of the State Military Industrial Committee of Belarus Dmitri Pantus met with the delegation. During the meeting, the parties noted the interest in expanding bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation, as well as discussed several promising projects in various areas.

On November 28, the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus reported the delivery of the next batch of automated jamming stations R-934UM2 Groza-6 to the Armed Forces of Belarus. The number of transferred stations was not specified. Probably, two units of R-934UM2 were delivered to the troops. Also, the State Military-Industrial Committee reported that “shortly, ahead of schedule,” the Armed Forces of Belarus will receive two more Groza-6 stations. Thus, the total number of R-934UM2 in the Armed Forces of Belarus will be brought to about 13 units.

On 28 November in Osipovichi, a ceremony of transferring new and modernized communication equipment to the troops was held. It was reported that 16 units of the Armed Forces of Belarus received new and modernized R-185 Epokha command and staff vehicles, R-142NMB Start combination radios, R-414MBRP Sosna-2 radio relay stations, and around 200 units of various wearable communications equipment.

On November 29, it became known that the 51^st Artillery Brigade (military unit 12147) had received modernized BM-21B “BelGrad-2” multiple rocket launchers (MLRS). The number of the new MLRS that entered service was not reported. It is known that at the end of 2022, a reactive artillery battery armed with MLRS BM-21 “Grad” was formed in the brigade.

According to the Belarusian Investigative Center, from September 2022 to June 2024, Belarusian companies sold microchips worth ca. USD 125 million  to Russia, which included a resale of components worth of USD 400 thousand in circumvention of sanctions. This is about 10,000 microchips produced by companies from the USA, Germany, and Finland. Among them are chips from Intel, which are used in the production of Su-34 and Su-35S airplanes, Corsair drones, and Kalibr cruise missiles. At least six Belarusian companies provided supplies.

In 2022, the Russian military established a filtration camp in Naroulya (Homel region). The camp held not only Ukrainian military prisoners but also civilians, including minors. They were tortured by Russian servicemen. In a joint investigation, Ukrainian and Belarusian journalists managed to establish the exact location of the camp. It was located on the territory of the LLC “Pripyat Alliance.” The company is part of the structure of the Belarusian Republican Union of Consumer Societies (Belkoopsoyuz).

On November 25, it was reported that the Belarusian diaspora in the Polish city of Gdansk wrote an open letter to the European Solidarity Center asking to remove the picture of Raman Pratasevich from the poster dedicated to the Belarusian political prisoners. In their letter, the Belarusians claim that the current actions of Raman Pratasevich, in particular, his cooperation with the Lukashenka regime’s propaganda, do not help the aim of the Belarusians in exile striving for democratic change in their home country. According to the media, signatures under this appeal are being collected. The poster appeared in Gdansk in front of the European Solidarity Center back in 2021.

On November 27, the Belarusian media informed that the Lithuanian company Vičiunai Group, which produces crab sticks and other sea-food products under the brand name Viči, had sold its business in Russia and other CIS countries already in April. According to the official statement of the company, after a two-year process, the company sold its factory in the Kaliningrad region and its logistics and retail companies in seven other countries, thus way leaving the Russian and CIS markets completely. The investor also had sold its business in Belarus, but according to the media outlet Zerkalo, the information about this surfaced only now.

On November 27, the first session of strategic consultations between the government of Canada and the democratic forces of Belarus took place in Ottawa, resembling the strategic dialogue previously established with the USA. The decision to hold these consultations was made during a meeting of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya with the Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly. The consultations are aimed at developing joint positions and priorities for cooperation in key areas, increasing the efficiency of support programs, and aligning them with the needs of the Belarusian civil society. The first session focused on the current most pressing issues: politics, security, and political prisoners; democratization and support for Belarusian media; efforts to hold the regime accountable for crimes against humanity; and non-recognition of the 2025 sham election in Belarus. Canada’s consultation with Belarusian democratic forces reaffirmed a shared vision of a democratic Belarus – free from oppression, corruption, and interference – and expressed their commitment to continuing to stand in defense of shared democratic values and freedoms, deepening their partnership through enhanced collaboration, and joint initiatives aimed at building a future where Belarus is free from oppression and external interference.

On November 28, it was announced that the Latvian Parliament Saema withdrew from supporting the changes in the education legislation prohibiting Belarusian and Russian citizens from teaching at Latvian education institutions. The majority of deputies were against the legislation being passed for consideration to the Committee of the Saema.

On November 28, a video from the Polish Border Guard surveillance cameras was published in the media. The video shows how the facilitators of the migration crisis search for new ways of smuggling irregular migrants into Poland. The incident occurred on the night of November 26 to November 27, at checkpoint Bialowiezha, which is closed. Some men took a ladder and used it to climb through the fence at the closed checkpoint. In this way, migrants succeeded in getting into Poland and disappeared, and from the Belarusian side, the ladder was taken by these men, who disappeared into the deep in Belarus. However, the group of migrants was later captured by the Polish border patrols.

On November 28, it became known that a former presidential candidate of the 2020 presidential election and former political prisoner, Andrei Dzmitriyeu, was on a working visit in Berlin, where he held negotiations at the German Bundestag and had a phone call with the Vice-President of the European Parliament Katarina Barley. Dzmitriyeu negotiated in the German Bundestag for the normalization of relations between Belarus and Germany, having the “step by step” approach, where both sides make steps toward normalization of relations. In general, Dzmitriyeu repeated key topics of the deceased Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei, who said in his talks with foreign politicians that the normalization of the political situation is only possible if the West makes steps towards the official Minsk. New in the talks was that the politician pleaded to include Belarus in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. According to the media reports, since Dzmitriyeu returned to Belarus, in the current situation, such a meeting couldn’t be possible without the permission of the Lukashenka regime.

Since 2022, 19 foreigners have been tried in Belarus for “espionage activities,” “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. The accused were citizens of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Japan and Germany. Together with the rest of the charges, they were sentenced to a total of 135 years of imprisonment. According to Belarusian law, espionage activity is “an indefinite wide range of actions, which is defined as ‘cooperation’ with an indefinite wide range of foreign or international entities,” explained Pavel Sapelka, a lawyer at “Viasna”. Usually, trials on these charges are held behind closed doors, and human rights defenders are unable to find out exactly what foreigners are accused of.

From November 18 to 22, at least 87 criminal political cases were considered in Belarusian courts, in which 106 people were tried. At least 11 trials were held behind closed doors. The most common charge was “organization and preparation of actions grossly violating public order, or active participation in them” (Article 342 of the Criminal Code). 35 persons were judged on it. At least six persons were tried for “high treason.” 41 people were tried on defamation charges.

The owner of the popular Hrodna website s13.ru, dedicated to the news of the Hrodna region, Siarhei Chabotka, was sentenced to 15 days of arrest under an administrative charge of the distribution of “extremist materials” for the third time. The trial was held on November 22 in the Leninski district court of Hrodna. On October 25, the website was recognized as “extremist materials.” On the same day, Chabotka was tried and sentenced to 15 days of arrest. The second trial took place on November 6. This series of administrative arrests may be a preparation of a criminal case.

On November 25, the trial of Hennadz (Henrych) Akalatovich, a well-known and respected priest in Belarus, who helped to revive the Catholic Church in the regions of Belarus back in the Soviet times, began in the Minsk Regional Court. The hearing is held behind closed doors. Akalatovich is accused of high treason. According to the prosecution, he allegedly passed some secret information to someone, which caused damage to the state for about 1 million Euro. Akalatovich pleaded not guilty. He faces up to 15 years of imprisonment. Earlier, Akalatovich suffered a heart attack, he was diagnosed with cancer, and shortly before his arrest, he underwent gastric surgery. He is currently in the KGB pre-trial detention center, and his state of health is unknown. Earlier, Akalatovich was recognized as a political prisoner.

The Malarytski district court fined the 71-year-old pastor of the church Uladzimir Burshtyn 800 Belarusian rubles (about 230 Euro) for conducting the baptism ceremony without the permission of local authorities. In a statement by the International Union of Evangelical Christian Baptist Churches, it was reported that the reason for the imposition of the penalty was the fact that in early September 2024, Burshtyn held a baptism ceremony for nine persons near the Voyennoye Lake. A month later, a violation report was drawn up against him based on video recordings from surveillance cameras. In early November, the court ruled that the pastor had organized an “unauthorized mass event” and had not coordinated it with the administration of the district executive committee. This is the second such fine for the pastor: in June 2023, he was fined 555 rubles (160 Euro) also for “organizing mass events.”

In the Homel region, persons who had previously been tried on political-administrative or criminal charges, as well as those who received many fines from the traffic police, began to be massively summoned to the prosecutor’s office. They are forced to sign warnings about the inadmissibility of violating the Criminal and Administrative Codes and the obligations not to violate public order. People are called through summons or by a phone call. There may be dozens of such calls every day.

The wave of “political” arrests that took place in Homel in late October and early November did not end with the usual administrative arrests and fines for “subscriptions to extremist online resources”. Most of the detainees are still being held in custody, and some have been transferred to a pre-trial detention center and charged under Criminal Code articles. More than ten persons were detained, including former political prisoners. Most of the detainees are persons who have not shown any activity in recent years but are known as participants in the democratic movement before the 2020 protests. So far, information about two criminal cases is available. Some of the detainees have already been sentenced to administrative arrest three times in a row for allegedly having subscriptions to pages declared “extremist” on social networks.

The Prosecutor General’s Office reported about a major case on yard online chats. Valery Shulyak, Head of the Department for Supervision of Compliance with Legislation on State Security of the Prosecutor General’s Office, said that two weeks ago, a network of chat rooms in all regions of Belarus was identified, “which tried to unite into an organization.” “This attempt was unsuccessful. People have been brought to criminal responsibility,” he said. Shulyak did not name particular charges but said that participants of these chats face up to 15 years of imprisonment. Mass arrests that took place throughout the country in late October and early November were conducted within the framework of this case. It was then reported that the KGB opened a criminal case on charges of conspiracy or other actions committed to seize state power, and the coalition of yard chats was recognized as an “extremist formation.”

The Republican list of extremist materials presently contains 6,565 resources. Such data was reported on the state channel STV by Deputy Information Minister Andrei Kuntsevich. “I want to emphasize that a third of this number of resources (about 2,000) was included in the list in 2024 alone, in less than a year,” he said. According to Kuntsevich, the resources are included in the list based on court decisions. The basis for their adoption is the materials that are prepared by various government agencies, not only by security and law enforcement agencies. “These are government agencies in the field of culture, education, information, and justice, including local authorities, which, along with others, are subjects of countering extremism,” he added.

The independent media Nasha Niva has denied earlier reports that political prisoner journalist Andrzej Poczobut was transferred from a punishment cell to a regular cell. Poczobut’s transfer to a regular cell was announced at a recent solidarity rally with him in Bialystok. Despite the fact that there is very little information about Poczobut, it is known that he has recently been in a punishment cell and continues to be there. He receives letters from relatives and sometimes a lawyer is allowed to see him.

In Hrodna, state employees are fired after being detained for “spreading extremist materials”. Human rights defenders are aware of two such cases in the field of education. Arrests for “spreading extremist materials” are taking place all over Belarus. At the same time, the security forces admit that “extremists” are “quite respectable persons.” The Investigative Committee reports that since 2020, 22,500 “extremist crimes” have been initiated.

On November 27, human rights activists recognized 18 more persons as political prisoners. Most of them were convicted or taken into custody on charges of inciting social hatred or insulting Lukashenka. This number includes Vasil Verameychyk, an ex-soldier of the Kalinovski regiment, who was recently detained in Vietnam and deported to Belarus.

On November 29, human rights defenders recognized 10 more persons as political prisoners. Among them were artists, 64-year-old Lyudmilla Shchamialeva and her husband 65-year-old Ihar Rimasheuski. Their detention became known in October. They are accused of “actions grossly violating public order.” The number of political prisoners in Belarus has again reached almost 1,300 people. Human rights activists stated that during the “pardons” carried out by the Lukashenka regime this year, the number of political prisoners has increased.

On December 9, the trial against Victorya Damastoy, the mother of three minor children, who wrote letters and transferred money to the accounts of political prisoners, begins. Damastoy was detained in January 2024, when the KGB of Belarus conducted mass raids on the “grocery case” based on the work of the INeedHelpBY social initiative, which in January 2024 was recognized as an “extremist formation”. Later, a case was opened against Damastoy under the charges of financing extremist activities, but she was not taken into custody. After an examination of her equipment, which was seized during the search, four more criminal charges were brought against her. Among them were slandering Lukashenka and inciting other social hostility. In April 2024, she was placed in a pre-trial detention center.

On December 11, the court of the Shklousky district will begin consideration of another criminal case against political prisoner journalist and blogger Ihar Karnei, who was sentenced to three years of imprisonment in March this year. Karnei was accused of malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration. It is known that the administration of the Shklou colony N 17 placed him in a cell-type room several times. This way, he now will be tried criminally for “violations” for which he has already received penalties from the administration. Karnei may be sentenced to another year of imprisonment. Repeated convictions of political prisoners for “malicious disobedience to the demands of the colony administration” have become a tool of choice by the repressive regime to prevent their release from prison.

On December 13, 2024, the Homel Regional Court is scheduled to consider Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk’s appeal against the latest sentence which extended her prison term for another year. However, the prosecutor’s office is also appealing this verdict, hoping to make the sentence tougher. On October 15, 2024, the Rechitsky court added another year of colony to Palina Sharenda-Panasyuk’s term of imprisonment. This was her third sentence, based on charges of “malicious disobedience to the administration of the colony.”

The G7 countries called for the release of Belarusian political prisoners. In one of the paragraphs of the “G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Statement (Fiuggi–Anagni, November 26, 2024)”, they underlined: “We express our continued concern over the regime’s continuing repression of independent media, civil society, political opposition, and citizens peacefully expressing their views. We also condemn the ill-treatment of political prisoners and ask for their immediate and unconditional release”.

On November 28, the European Parliament adopted a resolution “Reinforcing EU’s unwavering support to Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression and the increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia,” in which it urged the EU member states to further broaden and strengthen the sanctions regime against North Korea, Belarus, and Iran in light of these countries’ military support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine..”. Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, noted in this regard that “it is important that EU sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and Russia be harmonized since now the regime provides a sanctions loophole through which dual-use goods are supplied to the needs of the Russian military-industrial complex. These goods, entering the Belarusian market, automatically end up in Russia.” “It is necessary to develop a comprehensive approach that will close the sanctions loopholes and prevent Russia and the Lukashenka regime from using Western technologies for aggression against Ukraine. It is also important to do everything possible to preserve the opportunity for Belarusian citizens to visit EU countries, ensure the smooth operation of passenger border crossings, and not separate Belarusian society from Europe,” he noted.

The situation in Belarus was considered on the margins of the 23rd session of the Assembly of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which opened on December 2. A side event “The Belarusian situation in the ICC: The jurisdiction of the ICC and the need to support the participating States” was co-hosted by Lithuania, the Center for Global Justice and Human Rights ”MARA“, and REDRESS. It was dedicated to the transfer of the situation in Belarus and neighboring states by the Lithuanian government to the Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC on September 30. It was held to draw the attention of other state parties to the Rome Statute and the situation of extraterritorial crimes against humanity committed by representatives of the Lukashenka regime on the territory of the countries parties to the Rome Statute.

On November 25, Deputy Minister of Information Andrei Kuntsevich said on air of CTV channel that the ministry does not block social networks, to ensure that Lukashenka-controlled media can work in them: “We do not take any radical steps to block specific social networks, realizing that today our state media, and therefore we, have the opportunity to reach a fairly wide audience on these platforms, albeit with certain restrictions.” According to him, the Ministry of Information considers the scenarios in which international digital platforms will be closed for them. Kuntsevich suggested taking the example of the EU and acting together: “We can also initiate such decisions together with our friendly countries through integration platforms, such as the EAEU or the CSTO.”

During the period under review, Pavel Muraveika, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, gave a detailed interview to SB. Belarus Today, in which he traditionally spoke about the “deployment of NATO and US troop groupings” near the borders of Belarus, “active militarization of the economies of neighboring countries,” as well as “irresponsible decisions” that allow the Ukrainians to use long-range Western systems on the territory of Russia. In his opinion, this “leads only to the escalation of the situation and does not contribute to the consolidation of peace and security.” But at the same time, he questioned NATO’s effectiveness, decrying the acronym as “No Actions Talks Only”: “…. God willing they should be able to do anything and know how to do anything. After all, even the weapons they are giving to Ukraine have not proven themselves much.” He also expressed the opinion that the West “apparently” does not have smart leaders yet, as they “should have realized long ago that there is no need to provoke Russia into actions that could lead to an escalation of the conflict.” Muraveika emphasized that Belarus and its main ally, the Russian Federation, “are ready to respond to any attack and any challenge.” He called the Russian army the most powerful in the world and also declared the unity of the Belarusian Armed Forces with it: “We have a joint regional grouping of troops, a single training school, and a single armament. We share the accumulated experience of fighting in modern military conflicts. The Russian army is combative. I will say without hesitation that it is the most powerful army in the world, and there is hardly any force to oppose it now. And it is our ally; these are the guys with whom we interact and share experiences. We have unified documents, unified views, and unified approaches”. Responding to a question from propagandist Liudmila Hladkaya about the recent launch of the Oreshnik missile, he called the action “a gesture of goodwill,” a “demonstration of capabilities” and a hint that “one should not mess with Russia.”

On November 26, pro-governmental and pro-Russian expert Aliaksandr Shpakouski concluded that “providing the Kyiv regime with medium-range missiles with the ability to hit targets at a distance of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers” indicates that the West is “ready to raise the stakes in the global conflict to the exchange of nuclear strikes.” He believes that with this in mind, Minsk needs to “protect domestic political stability,” “successfully complete the election campaign for the election of the head of state,” and “convince opponents of the high probability of unacceptable damage in case of an attempt on the security of Belarus,” as well as “prepare the security bloc and the population of potentially vulnerable regions for the military-chekist [referring to the ChK, the Soviet state security service, the predecessor of the KGB] operation to destroy saboteurs in case of emergencies.”

On November 28, Aliaksandr Lukashenka addressed a meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council, held in Astana, Kazakhstan. In his speech, he frightened the audience with the “NATOization of Europe and the world as a whole” and reminded them about “countermeasures,” referring to the security conference held in Minsk and the Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the XXI century proposed by the Belarusian authorities: “The key to solving current problems and creating effective mechanisms for ensuring security lies in our Eurasia, with its millennia-long experience of joint life of different peoples, interpenetration of cultures and civilizations. In the new paradigm of international relations, the CSTO should become one of the military-political pillars of the emerging security architecture of the Eurasian continent, setting the trend for the entire regional security agenda”. He believes that the CSTO should respond to new challenges, in particular, to ensure control over new weapons. On the sidelines of the summit, he answered a question from Russian propagandist Pavel Zarubin as to whether the demonstration of “Oreshnik” should cool down those who “brought the world to the brink of World War III”: “It has already cooled down. We can immediately see this from statements in the media. There is indeed no unified line; everything has gone differently. This shows that they are a bit confused. But it’s a good weapon. Not a nuclear weapon, but in terms of its power, it is comparable to a nuclear weapon. But without penetrating radiation, without contamination of terrain and objects.” Lukashenka said that Belarus is ready to deploy these complexes in its territory.

Commenting on Lukashenka’s above-mentioned speech, pro-government expert Aliaksei Dzermant called his thinking “Eurasian” and suggested “pulling Iran and DPRK more closely” into cooperation with the CSTO. “By the way, let me remind you that in late May 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka suggested that Kazakhstan and not only Kazakhstan join the Union State of Russia and Belarus: Nobody is against Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations as we have with the Russian Federation. It is very simple – the Union of Belarus-Russia should be joined, and that’s it, and there will be nuclear weapons for all,” Dzermant developed the topic.

As a guest on Ryhor Azaronak’s show, propagandist Kiryl Kazakou said he was personally ready to shoot blogger Mikita Melkaziorau for calling the leader of the Soviet Belarus in the 1940s Panteleimon Panamarenka “a nobody” and “a piece of shit.” “It seems to me that on an individual basis, it is necessary to impose martial law and a trial by troika and a firing squad on the spot. Here’s an exceptional list of such crap that should be denied any possibility of being on the territory of Belarus. If this thing ever wants to change its Belarusian passport, if this thing finally wants to change its teeth, if this thing somehow tries to call itself a Belarusian, I’m ready to act as one of the members of this troika to personally exterminate this thing from the face of Earth,” said Kazakou. He also expressed willingness to create a people’s militia “Ice Axe”: “To keep this ice axe sticking in the head of this jerk, because there’s no other way. It’s impossible to reeducate him.” He also believes that Melkaziorau’s relatives should be ashamed of him and that his friends should publicly disown him. Azaronak, in turn, agreed with Kazakou and asked to be a member of his “troika,” which, like in the Stalin’s times, could sentence people to death by firing squads.

Last week, propagandists closely followed the events in Georgia. The state media fully justified the actions of the ruling party and security forces, comparing dissenters in Georgia to the Maidan participants in Kyiv in 2013 or protesting Belarusians in 2020. Azaronak welcomed the Georgian Dream’s decision to abandon the course of European integration: “It was enough just to show one video clip – comparing peaceful cities with the Ukrainian ones. That’s all. There is no more European dream. There is only one choice – peace or war, life or death. Grants from the EU and the US are investments in murder, grief, blood, and tears. And nothing else.” Propagandist Yury Tserakh: “The harsh Georgian law enforcers took the issue seriously, they did not argue, they nipped it all in the embryo at once and without unnecessary sentiments. Classically, they used water cannons and tear gas. It refreshes the Maidanites very well. Everything was very beautiful and inspiring. But no one has canceled the methodology yet, and soon we will be expecting hundreds of stories about terrible atrocities and unmotivated cruelty.”

Lukashenka’s youngest son Mikalai, takes an active part in his father’s propaganda campaign on the eve of the “presidential election.” As part of the so-called “Marathon of Unity”, he plays the piano at concerts in different cities in Belarus. On November 30 in Vitebsk BelTA interviewed him, in which Mikalai joined the propagandists praising the dictator, calling him a “great man” and himself “his absolute copy”: “My father in his youth also reacted very vividly to some injustice, some controversial moments that exist in any society, in any state. The only question is how you will react to it: keep silent and do nothing or fight for people, for justice. The head of state is business-like and tough; he is the president of the country. And I think he is a great man. You and I see the fruits of his labor every day. And I see directly how they are created.”

Best regards,
iSANS team