Belarus Review by iSANS — August 4, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, at least 29 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarusian airspace between 28 July and 3 August. These included strike drones of the “Shahed” type and decoy drones of the “Gerbera” model. Most of the UAVs later crossed into Ukrainian territory. Reports were received of drones crashing both in Belarus and Lithuania.

On the morning of 28 July, residents of Vilnius spotted an unidentified drone crossing into Lithuania from Belarusian territory, flying at an altitude of approximately 200 metres. No flights by Belarusian Air Force aircraft or helicopters were reported that morning. It was therefore assumed that the Belarusian radar units may have failed to detect the drone. Its last reported location was near Vilnius. A search operation lasted several days, and on 1 August, the drone was discovered at the Gaižiūnai military training ground (Jonava district). Preliminary findings suggest that the drone resembled a Russian Gerbera UAV – a decoy model used to confuse air defence systems and exhaust their resources.

This was the second such incident involving a drone entering Lithuanian territory. The first occurred on 10 July, when a Russian “Gerbera” UAV crashed near the closed Šumskas border checkpoint, approximately 1 km from the Belarusian border.

At approximately 02:00 on 29 July, an unidentified drone crashed into the courtyard of a residential building at 72 Matusyevicha Street in Minsk. According to eyewitnesses, the drone struck the building, landed on a parked vehicle, and exploded. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence later stated that the UAV had been detected around 02:00 and brought down using electronic warfare systems. As a result, it crashed in Minsk at 02:33.Eyewitnesses reported hearing a drone flying over Mahiliou region between 00:00 and 01:00, and over Barysau between 01:30 and 01:40. Between 01:40 and 02:00, the sound of a UAV was also reported near Astrashytski Haradok and Boravlyany (Minsk district). This suggests that the drone may have entered Belarusian airspace from Russian territory. According to the official version, the drone crashed about 30 minutes later than reported by witnesses. Residents of Minsk’s eastern suburbs reported hearing the UAV 30 to 50 minutes prior to the explosion, which may indicate that it was detected only as it approached the city. On 3 August, Andrei Bahadziel, Deputy Head of the General Staff Faculty at the Belarusian Military Academy, confirmed on state television that the drone had been detected only “on approach to Minsk.” The Belarusian Investigative Committee later published a video showing the drone debris, which featured labels in Ukrainian. The drone’s origin and exact model remain unconfirmed. However, photos from the crash site indicate possible similarities with Ukraine’s FP-1 fixed-wing loitering munition. Various hypotheses are under consideration, ranging from provocation to an unintended incursion following a launch from Ukrainian territory.

Unofficial reports indicate that another UAV crash occurred in Minsk region on 30 July, possibly between the towns of Uzda and Slutsk.

On 1 August, Commander of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) Vadzim Dzyanisenka announced the formation of new units within the SOF structure. According to Dzyanisenka, a new air defence missile regiment was integrated into the SOF in May–June 2025. This refers to the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96869), based in Babruisk, which previously operated under the Western Operational Command of the Ground Forces. A rocket artillery regiment (military unit 38146) is currently under formation. “By the end of the year, it will be fully formed and officially recognised as a combat unit within the Armed Forces,” Dzyanisenka stated. Little is known about the new regiment, but it is expected to be based in Babruisk. Dzyanisenka also announced the creation of the 37th Air Assault Brigade within the SOF. “Today, the southern direction remains the most tense, keeping us alert. That is why we decided to create a dedicated air assault brigade in the region. One battalion has already been formed, and it will become combat-ready by the end of the year,” he said. The brigade will be based in Homiel region, where a military camp has been under construction since early 2023. Additionally, a new command support brigade is being planned. It will consolidate SOF command support units, including the 742nd Field Communications Node and the 91st Separate Security and Service Battalion. The brigade will also include electronic warfare and signals intelligence units.

During an informal meeting between Lukashenka and Putin on 1 August at Valaam Island in Karelia, Russia, both rulers confirmed that the “Oreshnik” missile system would be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025. When asked whether there were any concrete plans for the deployment, Lukashenka replied: “The military — who are very practical and always in a hurry — wanted to place the ‘Oreshnik’ [Belarusian site] sometime next year. Vladimir Vladimirovich clearly said: ‘This year, we must mostly complete all the work — the construction, establishment, and so on.’” Putin confirmed this, adding: “The first serial ‘Oreshnik’ system has been produced. The first serial missile is ready and has been delivered to the troops. Production is now underway.” He noted that Belarusian and Russian military specialists have selected the deployment site, and technical preparations are ongoing: “Most likely, we will finalise this by the end of the year. Everything is going according to plan.”

Between 30 July and 1 August, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Finland, where she participated in the OSCE “Helsinki+50” conference and held meetings with President Alexander Stubb, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, Parliament Speaker Jussi Halla-aho, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Chair Pere Pons Sampietro, Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon, and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk. The central focus was the promotion of initiatives for the release of political prisoners, including via humanitarian mechanisms involving the United States and the United Nations. Discussions also addressed regional threats (including the “Zapad-2025” drills and the deployment of nuclear weapons), the functioning of the OSCE Moscow Mechanism, Belarusian participation in OSCE and PACE events, assistance to the diaspora (especially the issue of expired passports), and international litigation related to the regime’s migration policy. The visit highlighted the institutionalisation of coordination with the EU, the UN, and the U.S. administration.

Dzianis Kuchynski, diplomatic adviser to Tsikhanouskaya, presented an initiative to hold a “roundtable” with the participation of the Belarusian regime. The proposal was conveyed to U.S. National Security Council Deputy Adviser Andy Baker and Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Ihar Sekreta. The proposed format aims to facilitate a pathway out of the political crisis through dialogue and national reconciliation. The initiative sparked controversy within the democratic movement. Paval Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, stated that negotiations were only acceptable without the participation of Lukashenka, whom he described as “a puppet of the Kremlin.” Critics, including Valery Kavaleuski, argued that the public promotion of the idea could undermine ongoing efforts to secure the release of political prisoners and questioned the appropriateness of democratic forces taking part. Shortly after the initiative was published by Zerkalo, the outlet experienced a cyberattack. The regime has not publicly commented on the roundtable initiative or the topic of dialogue in general, opting instead for a tactic of ignoring.

On 31 July, during a press conference in Warsaw, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Paval Latushka reported seven attempted recruitments of the staff of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAU). According to him, the KGB, the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), and special units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs offered financial rewards in exchange for information, using threats and blackmail directed at family members. The recruitment attempts were conducted remotely via messaging platforms. In some cases, individuals were offered the chance to “start anew” in exchange for cooperation and return to Belarus. Latushka also claimed that a provocation against him and other opposition figures was being prepared. He received messages referring to potential “physical elimination” and the alleged transfer of compromising material by Aliaksandr Lukashenka to U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg. These claims have not been independently verified at the time of publication.

On August 4, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office urged Belarusians abroad to be attentive, show solidarity, and report any recruitment attempts to the law enforcement agencies of their host countries. It also provided recommendations on general security rules. Recently, the Lithuanian State Security Department warned that the KGB has intensified attempts to recruit Belarusian citizens in Lithuania, Poland, Georgia and other countries through social networks and messengers. Lukashenka’s intelligence officers suggest Belarusian immigrants to share information in exchange for money, passports, and the opportunity to return to Belarus. In case of refusal, they threaten relatives in Belarus.

Between 1 and 3 August, Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin held an informal meeting at the Valaam Monastery in Russia. Formally presented as a private religious pilgrimage, the visit included political statements. Both rulers emphasised “Union State cohesion” and confirmed that the “Oreshnik” missile is expected to be fully deployed. Lukashenka proposed constructing a “Belarusian church” on the island, which was met with a reserved response from Putin, who referred to the “unified Orthodox faith.” Lukashenka was accompanied by his youngest son, Mikalai, in what appeared to be a symbolic act of ritualised image-building. Economic cooperation and the resilience of anti-sanctions models were discussed while challenges were reframed as “opportunities.” Particular attention was given to the war in Ukraine. Lukashenka endorsed the Kremlin’s “peace plan” and confirmed Minsk’s participation in humanitarian exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow, including prisoner and casualty transfers. The rulers criticised the “ultimatum-style” approach of Donald Trump and called for careful preparation of negotiations “beyond public rhetoric.” Lukashenka stated that peace was necessary but could only be achieved through recognition of realities on the front lines. Overall, the meeting underscored the regime’s role as a loyal ally of Moscow, with aspirations to act as a mediator and participate in negotiations related to Ukraine.

The main theme of Lukashenka’s meeting with Belarusian diplomats on 31 July was the “promotion of exports and attraction of investment.” He reaffirmed the strategic alliance with Russia as Belarus’s primary partner and “security guarantor,” while insisting on the preservation of formal sovereignty. The focus was placed on export diversification amid rising imports and worsening trade balances, especially on the Russian market. Priority regions include Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. A target was set to raise exports to Africa and Latin America to USD 1.5 billion and to launch regional hubs and assembly plants in “distant arc” countries. A trade agreement with Indonesia is reportedly in preparation. Contact with the United States was described as “a window of opportunity.” Lukashenka acknowledged that pardons of political prisoners had followed U.S. engagement, but rejected the notion of an “exchange,” calling the actions “gestures of goodwill.” The EU was characterised as a “toxic neighbour,” yet diplomats were instructed to intensify contacts with business circles, think tanks, and regional authorities. Lukashenka dismissed the policy of “democratisation through sanctions” as ineffective. Ideological loyalty was named as the key personnel criterion. Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou stated that up to 15 percent of staff had been dismissed from the Foreign Ministry since 2020 and that the entire diplomatic corps now operates under the “supervision” of the KGB.

On 30 July, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys confirmed that Vilnius does not intend to lift restrictions on the Lukashenka regime and is actively exploring new pressure measures. The statement was made amid rumours of a possible settlement in the arbitration dispute between the Klaipėda-based BKT terminal (partly owned by Belaruskali) and the Lithuanian government. Minsk is demanding €12 billion in compensation via international arbitration for the termination of fertiliser transit. Lithuanian authorities emphasise that public discussion of the case may undermine their legal position. National sanctions are also being prepared in case the EU does not extend bloc-wide measures. Lithuania thus aims to maintain a hardline stance and prevent Belarus from regaining economic leverage through circumvention schemes.

At least 33 people were taken into custody in the case of Belarusian Hajun, “Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported. Earlier, human rights activists informed that at least six trials had already taken place in this case. The detainees were being tried under the charge of facilitating “extremist activities”. In February 2025, it became known that unknown persons had gained access to the chat room of the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project, which published information about the movement of Russian troops in Belarus. After that, the project terminated its activities, while human rights activists began to report detentions.

On 29 July, representatives of the Belarusian human rights community recognised 11 people as political prisoners. The statement was made in connection with new cases of conviction and imprisonment under a number of defamatory articles of the Criminal Code, as well as article on the abuse of state symbols of the Republic of Belarus. Human rights activists demanded the immediate release of all political prisoners and an end to political repression against Belarusian citizens. On 30 July, eight more people were recognised as political prisoners. “Assessing all these cases of criminal prosecution, we concluded that in each of them there was a political motive for the prosecution of the accused,” the statement said. Human rights activists demanded a review of the punishments imposed on these political prisoners, and the chosen preventive measures, the release of all political prisoners and an end to political repression. On 1 August, seven more people were recognised as political prisoners, as human rights activists became aware of the detention and imprisonment of these individuals in connection with the recognition of protest initiatives as extremist formations. Currently, 1,184 people are recognised as political prisoners in Belarus.

On 29 July, the Vitsebsk Regional Court upheld the verdict against Catholic priest Andrzej Yukhnevich, who was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment. Yukhnevich’s complaint was rejected. The case, as before, was considered behind closed doors. Believers consider the trial to be fabricated. In the near future, Yukhnevich will be transferred to a colony, as well as priest Henryh Akalatovich, who was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment.

“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported arrests in the area of House No. 72, Matusevich Street, where a drone crashed on the night of 29 July. According to human rights activists, there were many security officers on the scene, including riot police. They were detaining passers-by and residents of the area. “The security officers were probably looking for those who passed information about the incident to independent media,” “Viasna”  suggested. The Main Department of Internal Affairs of the Minsk City Executive Committee refuted the information published by “Viasna”. “The situation in Minsk remains calm and controlled,” the statement read.

Since the beginning of 2025, nine minors have been convicted on charges of organising or participating in actions grossly violating public order (article 342 of the Criminal Code). This was evident from the judicial statistics for the first half of the year, published on the website of the Supreme Court. Six more minors were convicted under other “protest” articles: two for insulting Lukashenka, two for promoting “extremist” activities, and two for abusing state symbols. It was not specified what types of punishment the minors received.

The imprisoned human rights activist Nasta Loika’s detention conditions have been tightened. She was sent to a cell-type facility for six months. In the autumn of 2024, Loika was taken from the colony to Minsk to participate in a trial as a witness. Upon her return to the colony, she was transferred to another unit, and a number of “violations” were attributed to her. As a result, she was sent to a cell-type facility. In a cell-type facility, the prisoner is isolated from other people, and is confined to a cell (possibly alone, maybe with several other prisoners), with access to the fresh air only during walks. Nasta Loika was detained on 28 October 2022 and sentenced to seven years of imprisonment on charges of “inciting hostility”. The trial took place behind closed doors. As reported by “Viasna”, the case is related to a report on the persecution of anarchists, antifascists and leftist activists in Belarus in 2017-2018 which Loika co-authored. Allegedly, the report gave a critical assessment of the actions of the police.

On 1 August, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added 17 more people to the “List of Сitizens of the Republic of Belarus, Foreign Citizens or Stateless Persons Involved in Extremist Activities”. The Belarusian authorities regularly use accusations of extremism to suppress political opponents and dissent in general.

The detentions of Belarusians at the border are ongoing. “Phone checks, interrogations, and detentions continue every day at Belarusian checkpoints. All detainees are placed in a pre-trial detention centre in the city closest to the checkpoint, after which they are either fined and released, or given an administrative arrest. It is known that some have been detained in criminal cases,” “Viasna” reported. Last week, Belarusian border guards took 14 people off a bus traveling to Belarus from Poland and sent them for a “conversation”. Some of them did not return to the bus.

A month ago, activist Ales Zdarouennau from Rechitsa was detained at the border when he was returning from Poland. A few days later, Ales’ brother, Vadzim Zdarouennau, was detained in Minsk. The reasons for the detentions are unknown. It is also unknown where the brothers are now. In 2020-2021, Ales was twice brought to administrative responsibility for participating in protests and hanging a white-red-white flag in the courtyard of a private house. After 2021, Ales travelled to Lithuania and Poland several times. He spent several months in Poland before his arrest at the border.

Valery Zhukau, a businessman from Minsk, was convicted on charges of “joining an extremist formation”, “insulting a government official”, “insulting Lukashenka”, and “inciting hostility”. The outcome of the trial and the nature of the charges are unknown, but Zhukau has not been released. In addition, he was declared a “terrorist”. Zhukau was detained in November 2024 for “spreading extremist materials” and given administrative detention. After the end of the administrative term, he was not released, and a criminal case was opened against him.

The data of the buyers of Belaruskicry jewellery could have fallen into the hands of the security forces. Recently, the jewellery brand was recognised as an “extremist formation”. The Belaruskicry project has posted on social media on 30 July: “Due to the latest news about Belaruskicry being recognised as an extremist formation in Belarus, we are not sure that the data of your previous orders have not fallen into the wrong hands.” The Main Directorate for Combating Organised Crime and Corruption of the Ministry of Internal Affairs threatened in its unofficial Telegram channel that for each new order, a criminal case would be opened against the buyer, which provides for a term of up to six years of imprisonment. The jewellery brand was created by a Belarusian designer who moved from Minsk to Georgia after the protests in 2020.

Ruslan Badamshin, a well-known neurologist, has been arrested again and is held in pre-trial detention centre No. 1 on charges of “facilitating extremist activities”. In May 2024, he was sentenced to three years of restriction of freedom (“home chemistry”) for participating in protests. During 2020-2021, Badamshin was sentenced to administrative arrest at least five times, spending a total of several months in custody. Sometimes the security officers arrested Badamshin at work, at the Republican Scientific and Practical Centre of Neurology and Neurosurgery, where he was a doctor of functional diagnostics. Badamshin’s wife, Tattiana Badamshina, who is also an endocrinologist, was also tried in a criminal case for participating in the protests.

On 30 July, 20 people received the status of former political prisoner, “Viasna” reported. As punishment for exercising freedom of expression and freedom of assembly, they were deprived of their liberty: taken into custody, sentenced to house arrest or prolonged administrative arrest, imprisonment or restriction of liberty, and have now been released without rehabilitation or compensation for the harm caused. Among them is Yury Melyashkevich, who spent more than five months in custody in the Hrodna prison. He was not recognized as a political prisoner during his pre-trial detention only because of a lack of information and for fear of aggravating his situation if his persecution was publicly assessed as politically motivated.

According to information from BELPOL, the number of those repressed in Belarus is already 500,000. In this figure BELPOL included those convicted in politically motivated cases, as even after their release, these people are not left alone; individuals listed in the “BESporyadki” (Riots) database, which, according to the organisation, includes more than 100,000 people; those who signed for the nomination of candidates for president of Belarus in 2020; and forced emigrants, many of whom are afraid to return home because of the threat of criminal prosecution for political reasons.

Thanks to the international relay race “Voices Across Borders” organised by the Country for Life foundation, BYSOL, ByHelp, DissidentBy, and the People’s Embassies of Belarus, 11 families of political prisoners received help. 7,547 Euro was raised, ten countries took part in the relay race, 20 events were held, during which funds were raised, and more than 500 people participated in those events.

On 31 July 2025, “Helsinki+50 Conference: Respecting the Legacy, Preparing for the Future” organised by Finland to mark the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, was held at Finlandia Hall. One of the side events at the conference was dedicated to Belarus and how human rights defenders are being persecuted. Natallia Satsunkevich from “Viasna” Human Rights Centre noted that the human rights situation in Belarus remains extremely serious. “The political and social crisis is escalating. The repression continues and takes on new forms,  many of them occur silently, without public attention,” she stressed. “Today, there are still more than 1,000 political prisoners in prisons, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. Four members of “Viasna” are in prison in very difficult conditions. They are under constant pressure from the prison administration, forced to work six days a week, and do not receive proper medical care or adequate nutrition,” Satsunkevich recalled – “Virtually all independent human rights organisations and the media have been declared ‘extremist’ or even ‘terrorist’ by the regime. This puts anyone who cooperates with them, or merely shares information, at serious risk. We receive over 1,000 requests for help every month. People still face human rights violations, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to document these cases. People are scared. The families of political prisoners are being punished for their solidarity and support, and some are facing criminal charges.” “We call on all governments and organisations to continue working to free all political prisoners and help stop the repression in Belarus,” Satsunkevich declared.

Events dedicated to the fifth anniversary of the beginning of mass peaceful demonstrations by Belarusians against election fraud and violence against protesters are planned in various countries around the world, including Lithuania, Poland, Canada, and the United States. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office has prepared a list of events that will take place on 9 August. The list will be updated. Among other events in Warsaw, the Freedom March will take place. This year it will be the culmination of the first day of the “New Belarus” conference. The march will begin at 15:00 from the Piłsudski Square.

Finland intends to allocate 50,000 Euro for the International Humanitarian Fund to support political prisoners in Belarus and their families. This became known after a meeting between Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Elina Valtonen, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland, which currently chairs the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Earlier, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Latvia, Estonia, Luxembourg, and Spain joined the International Humanitarian Fund. Funds will be used for rehabilitation, treatment, and relocation programmes for former political prisoners and their families, without covering any administrative expenses.

On 1 August, the Lithuanian Department of State Security issued a warning about the increased risk of detentions of citizens of Lithuania entering Belarus, after the YouTube channel “Delfi Lithuania” was recognised as “extremist materials”. “Viewing and visiting the Internet sites included in the list [of extremist materials] is considered an administrative offense in Belarus, which is punishable by arrest for up to 15 days,” the Department emphasised. It urged Lithuanian citizens to refrain from any trips to Belarus, as such trips pose a threat to their safety. The Department noted that in the past there have already been cases when security forces searched the phones of Lithuanian citizens who arrived in Belarus and arrested them.

“Ukraine as a Target of External Control and a Source of Threats; Lukashenka as a Peacemaker”

Regime officials. On August 1, during his visit to Valaam for a meeting with Vladimir Putin, Aliaksandr Lukashenka commented on the drone crash in Minsk, claiming that the UAV contained 59 kilograms of explosives. He called for a “careful de-escalation of dangerous trends” and argued that the U.S. must pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to an aerial ceasefire. Later, he accused Ukraine of making “unrealistic demands” and actively portrayed himself as a potential mediator.

Propaganda. Regime-affiliated media were compelled to respond to independent outlets reporting on the UAV crash on Matusyevich Street in Minsk on the night of July 29. Regime propagandist Ryhor Azaronak downplayed the significance of the incident, stating that “in Ukraine and half of Russia, such news would be treated like minor traffic accidents.” He accused “fugitives” of fuelling “informational noise,” insisting that “air defence systems worked, the Ministry of Defence responded, and the situation is under the President’s control.” He claimed the drone was Ukrainian and warned that such cases may increase because “now there are more drones in the sky than birds of God,” urging people to remain calm and “believe in the Father (“Batska”) and our security services.”

On state TV (STV), in the program “The Secret Springs of Politics,” Azaronak returned to the theme of Lukashenka’s “divine mission,” claiming that “a real, honest-to-goodness war” is raging “200 meters from us,” and that Belarusians are being protected “by the miracle of God – Lukashenka,” who “has managed to preserve peace on our land for three years.”

Other propagandists echoed this rhetoric. Aliaksandr Shpakouski emphasized the presumed Ukrainian origin of the exploded drone and warned “fugitives” trying to use the incident for their own purposes that “their time is up.”

Regime media reinforced a Kremlin-aligned narrative that “Anglo-Saxons” are preparing to remove Zelenskyy from power. On July 29, Liudmila Hladkaya (SB. Belarus Segodnya) cited Russian foreign intelligence, claiming that “presidential elections took place at an Alpine resort,” and that the U.S. and the U.K. had agreed to replace Zelenskyy with Valery Zaluzhny. “All participants in this secret conspiracy agreed the issue was long overdue. Zelenskyy’s replacement has essentially become the key condition for a ‘reset’ in Kyiv’s relations with Western partners, especially Washington, and for continued Western aid in resisting Russia,” she wrote. Her colleague Aliona Krasouskaya added in SB that Zelenskyy’s successor would be chosen not by Ukrainians, but by “his former allies in the fight against Russia.”

Amid these claims, regime voices promoted the idea that only Putin and Lukashenka can “save what remains of Ukraine” – and Zelenskyy himself. Pro-regime commentator Aliaksei Dzermant said on the program “Azaronak. Direct” that Belarusian and Russian leaders could “guarantee physical security” for Zelenskyy, who allegedly “already knows what choice to make, but fears that the machine will crush him if he even whispers about it.” Dzermant urged him to “turn to Batska for asylum.”

“Belarus Is Sovereign Because It Is Protected by Russia” 

Regime officials. At a meeting with Belarusian diplomats on July 31, Aliaksandr Lukashenka emphasized that despite all discussions of multipolarity, Russia remains Belarus’s closest state partner – “a country with which we fought and won.” He called Russia the “guarantor of security” and reiterated that if in 2020 and beyond Russia had not “offered its shoulder – including both conventional and nuclear weapons,” Belarusians might now be “facing off with NATO head-on in the West.” At the same time, Lukashenka dismissed accusations of lost sovereignty, claiming that Belarusian authorities had “proven to the entire world over recent decades that we are sovereign and independent.”

Propaganda. Pro-regime commentator Aliaksei Dzermant warned Belarusians and Russians alike that they should seek allies only in the East and South, because “for the Westerners, we are all white Negroes and Asians (racist language in original – [ed.]).” He predicted that the war in Ukraine would continue for an indefinite period, as the Americans would sell weapons to Europe, which in turn would send them to Ukraine, while Donald Trump would impose new sanctions. Ryhor Azaronak echoed this message, urging people to “believe the West” when it “keeps insisting it’s preparing for war against Belarus and Russia,” given that “billions have been allocated, Rheinmetall and others have received huge money — they’re churning out shells, they’re churning out guns.”

“The West as a Manipulator and Source of Destabilization”

Regime officials. At the July 31 meeting with Belarusian diplomats, Aliaksandr Lukashenka expressed satisfaction over news of an alleged split within the “so-called European unity,” particularly regarding migration issues. He voiced hope that “the Germans will put the Poles and the Balts in their place, identify the real culprits, and block migrant trafficking schemes.” He insisted that it was important for this internal EU discord to “spill over into the anti-Belarusian policies of the EU.” He added that the Foreign Ministry had already briefed him on which countries Belarus could work with in this regard and demanded that “concrete measures already be in progress.” Lukashenka also ordered diplomats to use every opportunity to convey the “truth about Belarus” to Western media, think tanks, and analytical centres. At the same time, he reiterated that “you don’t get to choose your neighbours” and warned against turning away from the EU: “We must not, under any circumstances, abandon the European market.”

A day later, during his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Valaam, Lukashenka again called on the EU to cooperate with Russia: “If this power were to unite… Of course, the Americans would never allow it. That would be terrifying for them. Worse than China. If such a union formed, it would be a true force.” Commenting on the recent trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, Lukashenka suggested that Washington’s actual aim was to weaken its partner: “They will destroy Europe, the EU. There have been whispers that such is the real goal of the Americans — to weaken this centre of power. The EU was no weak organization. But now, that’s exactly what’s happening.”

In his rhetoric, Lukashenka also praised Donald Trump, claiming that his return “has opened a window of opportunity for improving relations” and for “clearing out the debris left by the Americans that is obstructing our work on global markets.” During his visit to Russia on August 1, Lukashenka called Trump “our mutual friend, whom we were all worried about,” but also criticized the ultimatums Trump had given to Putin: “50, 60, 10 days — that’s not how politics works. If he wants peace, he should approach the matter carefully and thoroughly. This is military confrontation. You don’t give orders like that. Especially not to a nuclear power. It’s just laughable.”

Propaganda. While Lukashenka maintained relatively moderate rhetoric, regime propagandists were more openly hostile toward Donald Trump. On July 27, Yury Uvarau, a columnist for Minskaya Prauda, compared Trump to Mikhail Gorbachev, calling both “puppets of the global backstage,” and predicted that “the collapse of the United States is not far off – and it will be Trump who leads it there.”

He also accused the U.S. of supporting a “neo-fascist regime in Kyiv” and urged Belarusians to stop acting like the West’s underlings. Uvarau called Trump “a clown who sheds tears in public over the victims of the Ukrainian conflict,” but refuses to admit that “the cause of the war was the implementation of the American Anti-Russia project, cultivated under Western intelligence control and financed by local oligarchs to grow neo-Nazism.”

“Release of Political Prisoners Conditional on Deportation”

Regime officials. At the July 31 meeting with Belarusian diplomats, Aliaksandr Lukashenka addressed the recent release of several political prisoners. He stated that he is willing to approve such releases only on the condition that those individuals are “taken and removed” from the country.

Propaganda. Pro-regime political commentator Andrei Lazutkin offered commentary clarifying Lukashenka’s position: “For those who didn’t get the message — the pardoned individuals must leave the country. In this case, we can release them from the colonies in batches (a figure of 20,000 convicts was even mentioned), whereas the West would like to turn them into a network and a base for new protests inside the country. Hence the President’s public move – to highlight the West’s cynicism. The West isn’t interested in releasing everyone, nor are they going to help anyone, despite what they promised. They want specific individuals — and they want them free inside Belarus. All the rest – the broken lives – are just background extras.”