Belarus Review by iSANS — August 12, 2024 

Belarus Review (2024 edition, issue 31)

A weekly update on the ongoing political crisis in the Republic of Belarus was prepared for you by the International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSANS).

Ladies and gentlemen,

due to the summer vacation season in our team, we won’t be able to issue the Belarus review in the upcoming weeks. The weekly newsletter will return on September 2, 2024. We wish all our readers a nice summer holiday and hope for your attention in September when we return with more news from Belarus.

Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus Andrei Lukyanovich paid a working visit to Tehran. The head of the Belarusian military delegation held meetings with Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army Abdulrahim Mousavi and Commander of the Air Force of the Iranian Army Hamid Vahedi. During the visit, the parties discussed issues of bilateral military cooperation and outlined ways to develop it further. The Belarusian delegation also visited the facilities of the Iranian military infrastructure.

On August 7-8, command and staff exercises were held under the direction of Northwest Operational Command Commander Aljaksandr Bas. In the course of the exercise, the following issues were worked out: ensuring the sustainability of the troop control system and increasing the survivability of control points; fighting sabotage and reconnaissance groups; planning and use of unmanned aerial systems for reconnaissance; improving the system of fire defeat of the enemy by missile troops and artillery, etc. The exercise was conducted in the territory of the Minsk and Hrodna regions.

On August 8, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus Pavel Muravejka held a working meeting with the military attaché of the Embassy of Kazakhstan to Belarus Ularbek Abykeev. During the meeting, issues of bilateral military cooperation were discussed. The parties confirmed their readiness to continue friendly relations between the defense institutions of both countries.

On August 10, Aliaksandr Lukashenka described an incident in which Ukrainian drones allegedly violated the airspace of Belarus (for more details, see the section “Propaganda”). On the same day, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin said during a briefing that on August 9, the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Belarus, who were on duty at the time, detected unidentified aerial objects moving from Ukraine to the Belarusian airspace. According to the Defense Minister, after crossing the border, the aerial targets were classified as UAVs, and a command was given to destroy them. According to the official information, as a result of the actions of the Belarusian military, one part of the drones were shot down and another part was destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Russia. The Belarusian Defense Ministry published a video of one of the downed drones.

According to Khrenin, fighter jet SU-30SM and helicopter Mi-24 of the Belarusian Air Force were involved in the search and interception of the drones. Indeed, on the evening of August 9, a fighter jet and a helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force conducted flights. However, according to the available information, they failed to find the UAVs. Therefore, the question remains whether the Belarusian military indeed downed Ukrainian drones. It is noteworthy that the representatives of the Lukashenka regime had not commented on the case with nine Russian Shahed-136/131 drones which violated the airspace of Belarus in July 2024.

Also, Khrenin stated that considering the current situation in Ukraine and the Kursk region of Russia, Lukashenka instructed the military “to strengthen the military grouping in Homel and Mozyr tactical directions”. According to him, units of the Special Operations Forces, Ground Forces, Missile Troops, and Artillery are involved in the operation (including Polonez rocket systems and Iskander-M missile systems).

According to the available information, on the morning of August 10, the redeployment of units of the Armed Forces of Belarus to the southern regions of Belarus started. In particular, the transfer of the 339^th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120^th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104) was recorded. Also on August 11, the Defense Ministry published footage of the loading of equipment, presumably from the 355^th Independent Tank Battalion of the 120^th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853) on railway platforms. It was noted that the transfer of troops to the south of Belarus is carried out by a combined method (by rail and public roads). Also in the Homel region at the beginning of August, there were units of the 5^th Special Forces Brigade and the 103^rd Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

The new round of Lukashenka’s aggravation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border is similar to what already happened in June-July 2024. Using a formal pretext (unmanned aerial vehicles that allegedly flew into the territory of Belarus), Lukashenka again began to transfer troops to the border with Ukraine. However, unlike the June aggravation of the situation, now the number of troops moved to the border has increased. For example, mechanized units with heavy weapons are being transferred.

The motivation for the actions taken is also different. Now, it is a consequence of the beginning of military operations in the Kursk region: Lukashenka needs to fulfill his “allied obligations” to Russia. Especially in the situation when in the Russian information space Lukashenka was recognized as guilty of the success of the Ukrainian military operation in the Kursk region because in July he had ordered the withdrawal of his troops from the border with Ukraine.

So far, the number of Belarusian forces being deployed at the border does not pose a threat to Ukraine. The escalation of the situation on the border is for informational and political, not military, purposes. The situation is developing and requires further monitoring.

On August 5, it was announced the EU added 28 individuals, among others high-ranking civil servants, judges, and senior figures from state media, to its Belarus sanctions list. The EU sanctions shall serve as punishment for their role in the ongoing crackdown on internal dissent and violations of human rights. The deputy heads of the Anti-corruption Department were listed for their involvement in “political persecution in Belarus, including arbitrary and unlawful arrests and ill-treatment, including torture, of activists and members of civil society,” the Council of the EU said in a statement. The list also includes prosecutors and judges involved in political trials, the heads of prisons, and prominent figures from the state media who have supported long-time “president” Aliaksandr Lukashenka. Those sanctioned are subject to an asset freeze and banned from traveling to the EU. Now, the EU sanctions apply in total to 261 individuals and 37 entities.

On August 8, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell made a statement in connection with the fourth anniversary of the protests against the falsification of the presidential elections in Belarus. The statement notes that since then, despite the brutal repression, the Belarusian people have repeatedly and boldly defended their human rights and the democratic future of their country. There are currently about 1,400 political prisoners in custody. They represent only a fraction of the thousands of people who have been detained for political reasons and have been released since 2020. Lukashenka has launched a total crackdown on Belarusian civil society, human rights defenders, free media and journalists, political opponents, independent trade unionists, representatives of national minorities, and, ultimately, all citizens expressing their views both in the country and abroad. Belarusian sovereignty and identity are under increasing threat. “The EU remains united in its support for the courageous people of Belarus, the Belarusian democratic movement, and civil society in their quest for a free, democratic, sovereign, and independent Belarus as part of a peaceful Europe. As soon as Belarus embarks on the path of democratic transformation, the EU will support the stabilization of its economy and the reform of its institutions, including through a comprehensive economic support plan of up to 3 billion Euros. We will continue to ensure that the voices of the Belarusian people are heard,” Borrell stated.

On the fourth anniversary of the fraudulent presidential election in Belarus in 2020, Canada has hit the Lukashenka regime with new sanctions. Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie said that the new sanctions are in response to the “ongoing and systematic human rights abuses in Belarus, and support for Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine”. New sanctions include ten individuals and six entities, among them judges who have arbitrarily condemned citizens for their expression of opposition in 2020. The list also includes people who coordinate military production with Russia and Belarus. Canada also sanctions entities that are involved in the production and repair of military equipment used in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and state-owned enterprises that intimidated and fired employees involved in peaceful protests and strikes after the 2020 election.

On the same day, the UK included four individuals, namely Aleksey Valerievich Lazarenko, Andrei Sergeevich Palchyk; Denis Anatolievich Tolstenkov; and Filip Vladimirovich Sturchanka, in its new sanctions list. All four were sanctioned for commissioning serious human rights violations, repression of civil society and democratic opposition, and actions and activities that undermined democracy and the rule of law in Belarus. Two entities, OJSC StankoGomel, and Ruchservomotor JSC, were also included in the sanctions list for alleged conduct destabilizing Ukraine or undermining or threatening its territorial integrity, sovereignty, or independence. JSC NIIEVM has been designated for allegedly obtaining benefits from supporting the government of Belarus and for being an entity affiliated with the government.

Also on August 9, in coordination with Canada, the UK, and other countries, the U.S. imposed sanctions against 19 individuals and 14 entities, involved in supporting Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine by producing resources used by the military, shipping goods to Russia, evading sanctions, and generating revenue for Belarusian oligarchs in Lukashenka’s inner circle. It also targeted Lukashenka’s “luxury airliner,” a Boeing-767-300 owned by the Belarusian government, which the Treasury Department said he uses “professionally and for his leisure.” Among the 14 entities designated by the U.S., is the Laboratory of Additive Technologies, which provides Russia with components for satellite communications systems and optical equipment. The sanctions freeze any U.S.-based assets owned or controlled by the individuals and organizations. They also block financial transactions with those designated and prohibit the contribution of funds, goods, and services to them. The U.S. State Department also took steps to impose visa restrictions on 19 regime officials and their affiliates for their involvement in undermining democracy in Belarus. In an official statement, the U.S. officials pointed out that Lukashenka’s support for Russia’s indefensible war against Ukraine comes at a high cost for Belarus. “Lukashenka has traded his country’s autonomy and standing in the international community for his and his cronies’ own financial and political benefits. Today’s action reinforces the United States’ commitment to holding the Lukashenka regime accountable for its attacks on the Belarusian democratic movement and its flagrant exploitation of the Belarusian people,” it said. The restrictions were adopted against the background of the fourth anniversary of fraud in the presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020.

The U.K., the US, the EU, and Canada issued a joint statement on the fourth anniversary of the 2020 fraudulent presidential election in Belarus. On August 9, the governments of the three countries and the EU officials stated that they stand in solidarity with the people of Belarus who, despite continued repression by the Lukashenka regime, have peacefully and courageously pressed for democratic change, respect for human rights, and the release of all political prisoners.  The three countries and the EU, also as a symbol of their solidarity, imposed another set of sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and called on Belarusian authorities to release the almost 1,400 political prisoners.

The joint statement of the UK, US, Canada, and the EU was also followed by a statement from the President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. In a short video published on social network X, Metsola underlined that “people of Belarus must be able to live in freedom. Free from autocracy. Free from oppression. It is what they want. It is what they chose. It is what they deserve”. The President said that the will of the Belarusian people to end the age of dictators must be respected.

On August 9, many other countries, including Norway, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, Austria, Germany, Poland, Georgia, Denmark, Ireland, and Australia, showed their solidarity with the people of Belarus and Belarusian democratic forces, recalling the night of the rigged presidential election in Belarus and the start of Belarus protests as well as the harsh crackdown on the civil society, that continues. Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “Lithuania’s position towards the Lukashenka regime is strictly uncompromising”. The Ministry underlined that Lithuania does not recognize Lukashenka as a president, considers his regime illegitimate, and seeks his full international isolation, sanctions, and criminal liability for repression in Belarus and support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Once again, the statement stressed that “Lithuania strongly supports the aspirations of the Belarusians to ensure that their country and national identity remain part of the European political, cultural, and economic space.” Next to the Lithuanian MFA, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that four years ago Lithuania became refuge for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and many Belarusians fleeing from the regime in Belarus and expressed his belief in democratic future of Belarus. Lithuania’s Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė called in her tweet on the democratic society not to give in on Lukashenka’s “gestures of goodwill” and not to return to business as usual. Speaker of Lithuanian Parliament Seimas, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen tweeted that Vilnius remains the beacon for those who continue their fight for its European future and that “together we stand for free, just and democratic Belarus”. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said “Estonia supports the people of Belarus as they continue aspiring for freedom and the democratization of their country.” Estonia’s Special Envoy for Cooperation with the democratic forces of Belarus Marko Koplimaa confirmed Estonia’s support for Belarusians striving for democratic change. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for the release of all 1,400 political prisoners. Special Envoy for Cooperation with Belarusian democratic forces of the Polish Foreign Ministry Artur Michalski tweeted in Belarusian language in support of the people of Belarus. Michalski stated that four years ago, Belarusian people stood up for their fundamental right to live in freedom and the Lukashenka regime responded with continuous repression, but the aspirations of Belarusian people for democracy and freedom also continue. Latvia’s Foreign Ministry stated: “Latvia stands in solidarity with Belarusians who are struggling for freedom and democracy.” Special Envoy of the German Bundestag for Affairs of Russian and Belarusian civil Society in exile Robin Wagener recalled the events of August 9, 2020, and summarized the Lukashenka regime’s harsh response to aspirations of peaceful protesters as well as reminded about the ongoing repressions in the country, demanding to release all of almost 140,00 political prisoners. In total, more than 20 countries supported the Belarusian people on the fourth anniversary of the Belarusian protest of 2020.

On August 9, the U.S. Embassy in Minsk spoke in support of the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people and called for the release of political prisoners in Belarus. “The 2020 protests were a vivid demonstration of the solidarity and unity of the Belarusian people, who sought democratic changes. For 4 years, the regime continued to suppress the will of the Belarusian people, restricting freedom of speech and peaceful assembly. Despite these obstacles, Belarusians continue to support each other in working together to achieve a democratic future. Together with the help of the international community, which supports the will of the Belarusian people, Belarusians are courageously fighting and are the hope for the whole world,» the video with archival footage says.

The leader of the Belarusian democratic forces and the Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed Belarusians in a video statement on the fourth anniversary of the rigged presidential elections in Belarus in 2020. In her address, Tsikhanouskaya recalled the amazing energy of the 2020 rallies, where people believed the change would come soon and the dictatorship would fall. The address reads that for “Belarusians, silence is not equal to consent. It means that we have bided our time and are preparing for a new moment, and that moment will surely come.” Moreover, Tsikhanouskaya thanked Belarusians inside the country for their courage and patience, reminded them that now is not the time to take risks, and invited people to protect themselves. Tsikhanouskaya underlined that “what matters the most is the people — it is us. Let’s care for and support each other. Together, we are capable of anything and will finish what we started in 2020.”

On August 2, the Hrodna Regional Court sentenced journalist and former political prisoner Ales Kirkevich to seven years of imprisonment, a fine of 24,000 rubles (about 7,326 USD), and a seizure of property within a framework of special proceedings (in absentia). He was given the maximum possible punishment. Kirkevich was accused of facilitating extremist activities and of otherwise facilitating extremist activities committed repeatedly by a group of persons by prior agreement. His interviews with Radyjo Svaboda and Belsat became the ground for these charges.

The Minsk Regional Court sentenced in absentia Ihar Parunkevich, a businessman who helped victims of the Lukashenka repression, to six years of imprisonment in a high-security colony. He was accused of inciting other social hostility, insulting Lukashenka, threatening violence against a policeman, and facilitating extremist activities. Having fled abroad, the man said that he supported Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and “put up a donation box for those who have been hurt during the protests” in his bar. The Belarusian police first threatened him and later opened a criminal case against him.

Another 10 people were recognized as political prisoners. These are Aliaksandr Parkhomenka, Ihar Tarasau, Ivan Amreychyk, Vasil Niparka, Aliaksei Samoylyuk, Anatol Zakurka, Ihar Sarokin, Siarhei Dzemidzyuk, Stanislau Chmykhau and Andrei Velikaselets. They have been charged, taken into custody, or have already been sentenced on charges of group actions grossly violating public order for participating in protests. Velikaselets was also accused of financing extremist activities. Human rights activists consider their cases to be politically motivated and demand their release. The number of political prisoners in Belarus has almost reached 1,400 people.

A Kia car belonging to political prisoner Andrei Kravchuk has been put up for auction on the Belurobespechenie electronic auction platform. The property has been seized by the Prosecutor General’s Office. The auction was scheduled for August 27. On August 1, a land plot belonging to political prisoner and 2020 presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka, who was sentenced to 14 years of imprisonment in July 2021, was sold through Belurobespechenie. Earlier, his other assets including a car and a watch, had been sold at auctions. The seizure and subsequent sale of the property of persons convicted under political charges has become a common practice of the Lukashenka regime

About 65,000 persons have been detained for political reasons in the last four years, “Viasna” Human Rights Center stated. During this period, more than 74 thousand facts of repression have been recorded: searches, short- and long-term detentions, interrogations, etc. “Viasna” knows about at least 6,971 defendants in criminal cases. The number of political prisoners has increased 55.5 times — on August 9, 2020 there were 25, and today there are 1,385 political prisoners. More than 2,000 people have the status of former political prisoners. Five persons died during protests and detentions, six political prisoners died in prison. At least 268 political prisoners are at particular risk. Among them there are 19 people with disabilities, 103 people have serious health issues, 63 people are over the age of 60 (many of them have serious health problems), ten persons have mental disorders. 23 political prisoners were detained as minors, and 39 were mothers and fathers with many children. At least five families are known where both parents are behind bars. “Viasna” member, ex-political prisoner Leanid Sudalenka, notes that Belarusian security forces are still detecting protesters from photographs from 2020 and charging them. Belarusians are increasingly being persecuted for their activities on social media, subscriptions to media that are not controlled by the Belarusian authorities, and are recognized as “extremist”. The repressions, in Sudalenka’s words, “have already gone beyond the borders of Belarus”: the changes made to the Criminal Procedure Code in 2022 allow those who left the country to be tried in absentia.

On August 19, Aliaksandr Azarau, an ex-employee of the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption and the founder of BYPOL, an association of former members of Belarusian security forces, will be tried in Minsk again. He was accused of an act of terrorism and high treason. The case will be considered within the framework of special proceedings (in absentia). In February 2024, a case on charges against representatives and ex-participants of BYPOL, including its structural units the Cituacyna-Analytychny Center and the “Peramoga” Mobilization Plan, was already considered in Minsk. The most severe sentence, 25 years of imprisonment, was then given to Aliaksandr Azarau.

On July 30, the Human Rights Committee, a treaty body of the United Nations, registered applications from freelance journalists Tatsyana Smotkina and Dzmitry Lupach about violations of their human rights by Belarus. They declared their disagreement with the administrative prosecution for their professional activities. On December 27, 2017, the court found Smotkina and Lupach guilty of violating media legislation and fined them: Smotkina was fined 25 basic units (about 175 USD), Lupach — 40 basic units (about 280 USD). The basis for the prosecution was materials that appeared on Radyjo Racyja and the Belsat TV channel. In 2024, the key UN human rights treaty body registered several applications from citizens of Belarus and foreign citizens living in the country. In the autumn of 2022, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a law on the denunciation of the Optional protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and thus deprived Belarusian citizens of the opportunity to appeal to the Human Rights Committee. However, this does not exempt Belarus from the obligation to take measures to implement the opinions rendered in cases that have been submitted to the Committee before the denunciation.

Political prisoner, journalist Andrzej Poczobut does not want to leave Belarus without the opportunity to return, Chief of the Chancellery of the President of Poland Małgorzata Paprocka said. “I can say that the president is very concerned about the release of Mr. Poczobut. And I can assure you that every effort is being made in this direction. However, we must also remember that Mr. Poczobut has his own opinion on this matter, and, above all, he does not want to leave Belarus without the opportunity to ever return there. And this also needs to be taken very seriously,” she stressed. She also confirmed that there are “appropriate channels” for contacting Andrzej Poczobut, and expressed hope that although “the Poczobut case is not a matter of eight months, many years,” there is hope that it “will soon find a successful conclusion.” The leader of the Union of Poles in Belarus, Andżelika Borys, insists that Andrzej Poczobut was ready to leave Belarus. She had the opportunity to meet with him in the spring and discuss this issue. “He told me this: if you think that this is the right thing to do, I will do it. At my request, he agreed to leave the country. My colleague’s life is most important to me,» Angelika Boris told Rzeczpospolita media. She was prompted to share the details of the meeting with Andrzej Poczobut by the fact that comments appeared in Poland about his unwillingness to leave Belarus. She clarified that in the spring of 2021, when three activists of the Polish minority were released, Poczobut did not agree to leave the country. However, more than three years have passed since then. The Rzeczpospolita article also quotes the words of Andrzej Poczobut’s wife Oksana. She rejects that her husband does not agree to leave. “This is nonsense, my husband is in complete isolation and has no opportunity to speak out,” she said.

On August 6, the Russian Center for Human Rights Protection “Memorial” called for fighting for the release of Belarusian political prisoners and Ukrainian hostages in Russia. “Memorial” released its statement after the exchange of Russian political prisoners, journalists, and opposition politicians who were in Russian prisons, and Russian citizens who committed crimes in other countries. The statement emphasized that Belarusian political prisoners are in captivity, “including due to the cooperation of the two dictatorships.” “Memorial” urged not to stop the struggle for their liberation and “remember those who really need support, including Ukrainian hostages in Russia and Belarusian political prisoners.”

“The international community must redouble efforts to address gross human rights violations in Belarus and hold those responsible to account”, PEN International and PEN Belarus said on August 9, marking four years since the widely disputed presidential elections of August 2020 and the unprecedented crisis that ensued. “For the past four years, the Belarusian authorities have brutally and relentlessly cracked down on writers, cultural figures, activists – anyone who dares express dissenting views. Even the relatives of those imprisoned on political grounds are targeted, while Belarusians abroad find themselves in an increasingly precarious situation. PEN International continues to stand with the brave people of Belarus in their fight to uphold fundamental freedoms,” stressed Ma Thida, Chair of PEN International’s Writers in Prison Committee. “The Lukashenka government, with the full force of its punitive machinery, is brutally waging war against the Belarusian people whose only crime is to disagree with violence and falsifications. These horrific abuses transcend Belarus, reaching those abroad and trapping them in fear and uncertainty. No one should be targeted for their dissenting views, let alone suffer because of the peaceful actions of their relatives. The Belarusian authorities torture, break people mentally and physically, and destroy their human dignity. The world must stop turning away from Belarus. Evil spreads quickly and does not recognize state borders. Only together can we overcome these challenges,” added Taciana Niadbaj, PEN Belarus President. PEN International and PEN Belarus called on the international community to continue to exert pressure on the Belarusian authorities to release those imprisoned on political grounds – including cultural figures – to advance accountability for crimes committed by the Belarusian authorities, and to support independent cultural projects and initiatives both inside and outside Belarus.

On August 9, the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties, which received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, together with the head of ”Viasna” Human Rights Center Ales Bialiatski and the “Memorial” Society, called for the release of imprisoned human rights defenders and journalists in Belarus. The appeal to the countries of the democratic world mentions Ales Bialiatski and five other members of “Viasna”— Valiantsin Stefanovich, Uladzimir Labkovich, Marfa Rabkova, and Andrei Chepyuk, as well as human rights activist Nasta Loiko. “The democratic world cannot just watch these people give their lives for the values of democracy. We call for real steps to be taken to free people who decided to defend important ideas and were not afraid to do so under the direct threat of an authoritarian regime. Democracy exists because of the people who can fight for it and defend its values. Therefore, it is important to protect such people,” the authors stressed.

Belarusians in different countries of the world rallied on the anniversary of the mass protests that began on August 9, 2020, after the announcement of the official results of the presidential elections. Rallies and demonstrations were held, in particular, in Lithuania, Poland, Belgium, the USA, and Georgia.