MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between 30 March and 5 April at least 20 Ukrainian UAVs were recorded in Belarusian airspace. No flights of Russian UAVs were reported during this period. The Ukrainian drones transited through Belarus to Russia via the Mahilioŭ, Homiel and Viciebsk regions. On-duty aviation assets of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (AF RB) were repeatedly involved in interception efforts.
On 31 March, a command-and-staff exercise with the North-Western Operational Command began under the leadership of Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveika, as reported by the Defence Ministry. The exercise is aimed at improving headquarters work in operational planning, taking into account lessons from modern military conflicts, and is scheduled to last three days.
On 1 April, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting on the results of the comprehensive inspection of the AF RB conducted from 16 January to 13 March. According to the official readout, Lukashenka stated that the inspection was planned but “for the first time… of such scale” and conducted under conditions as close as possible to actual combat.
He summarised the key conclusion as follows: “There are shortcomings, but overall the army is combat-ready.” At the same time, he indicated that the inspection revealed problems in training and command, and that further steps would include activating specific units, reinforcing them, and continuing to train them “to actually fight”. He also stressed that the inspection involved strict and multi-layered oversight, including not only military leadership but also the State Control Committee, the KGB, the Prosecutor’s Office and the Investigative Committee.
Lukashenka explicitly stated: “There can be no peacetime. We are preparing for war,” while simultaneously asserting that Belarus is “absolutely against war”. He emphasised that the army must be ready to repel an attack, and that security structures must anticipate and warn of potential or actual threats.
He added that the inspection was covered in the media “as never before”, but noted that not everything was made public: Belarusian authorities deliberately withheld “all the dirt” in the army from the information space in order not to expose vulnerabilities to “potential adversaries” and “enemies”.
Lukashenka instructed the military to more frequently change areas of deployment, stressing that moving units into field areas is necessary to “avoid being struck”. According to him, the adversary “sees and knows everything”, including the location of Belarusian units, and therefore such locations must not be predictable. In this context, he stated that areas of concentration must be changed, especially during a threatened period.
He also commented on the size of the armed forces: “We have 70,000 under arms today. And in total, close to 100,000,” he said. According to him, including internal troops, KGB units and other structures, the total size of the armed forces of different kind is around 100,000 personnel, and in the event of mobilisation in wartime, it could increase to up to 500,000.
On 1 April, a meeting was held at the Department of International Military Cooperation with Jerome Mallard on the occasion of the completion of his accreditation procedure as Defence Attaché at the French Embassy in Belarus (with residence in Moscow), as reported by the Defence Ministry. The parties exchanged views on key issues of international security and the evolving military-political situation in the Eastern European region. It was noted that military representatives of 10 NATO member states, as well as Switzerland, are currently accredited with the Belarusian defence ministry.
On 1 April, personnel of one of the tank units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (AF RB) departed for training at the 333rd Combat Training Centre. Joint training “with Russian colleagues” will last for one month. Training of mechanised and tank units of the AF RB in Russian training centres has been ongoing since 2022.
On 2 April, Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin participated in the 86th meeting of the Council of Defence Ministers of the CIS member states in Moscow. During the meeting, Khrenin stated that the global military-political situation is characterised by “negative dynamics”, while threats in the Eastern European region have reached a large scale. According to him, NATO is conducting “targeted preparations for war”, whereas Minsk’s proposals for de-escalation and the restoration of dialogue are not receiving support. He also pointed to the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, which may soon create new security and economic challenges for CIS countries, and argued that the deployment of additional U.S. forces to the region would further increase tensions. In this context, the Belarusian side called on CIS countries to strengthen military cooperation, develop joint military systems, enhance technological sovereignty, and improve UAVs, early warning systems, precision weapons and AI-based solutions.
On 2 April, a long-range supersonic missile carrier-bomber Tu-22M3 of the Russian Aerospace Forces, escorted by a Su-30SM fighter of the Belarusian Air Force, conducted simulated missile launches from Belarusian territory, remaining in the airspace of the Viciebsk region for approximately 20 minutes. Notably, this was the first recorded flight of a Tu-22M3 in Belarusian airspace since February 2022.
On 3 April, it was reported that, as part of a snap inspection ordered by the commander of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, one of the battalions of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade received a combat order and moved to a designated area. The unit is carrying out an operational task: it has assumed combat duty to protect a section of the state border in the airspace and to cover a designated facility. Particular attention was paid to the organisation of equipment movement and reconnaissance of both air and ground threats. A mobile fire group, as well as detection and engagement systems, were deployed to counter UAVs.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
On 3 April, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued a statement on the occasion of the so-called “Day of Unity of Belarus and Russia”, describing it as a cynical symbol of an unequal union which, in her words, conceals the erosion of Belarusian identity and the gradual loss of independence. She emphasised that Belarusian history and political tradition have European roots, and that the current rapprochement with Russia is not a form of friendship but the price Aliaksandr Lukashenka pays to maintain his power.
On 2 April, Tsikhanouskaya’s diplomatic adviser Denis Kuchynski reported a series of meetings in Washington with representatives of the White House and the U.S. State Department, including U.S. Presidential Envoy John Coale, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Smith, Deputy National Security Adviser Andy Baker, and Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council Charles McLaughlin. Details of the discussions were not disclosed; however, Kuchynski stated that he thanked the U.S. side for the release of political prisoners in Belarus and described the visit as “highly productive”. During the trip, he also met with the leadership of Freedom House and the Center for European Policy Analysis, where discussions focused on support for former political prisoners and coordination of EU and U.S. policy on Belarus.
The hybrid crisis between Belarus and Lithuania has definitively entered a phase of negotiating confrontation without political de-escalation. The centre of disagreement has shifted to the conditions, level and price of diplomatic engagement.
Against this background, Lithuania continues to tighten its approach by setting conditions for negotiations. On 31 March, Lithuanian presidential adviser Asta Skaistgirytė stated that dialogue without preconditions is “not very beneficial” for Vilnius. On 2 April, Gitanas Nausėda outlined “goodwill” criteria for Minsk — at least four weeks without meteorological balloons, migration pressure, and problems related to the return of trucks. On 5 April, the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs additionally stated that it had not received any official proposals for meetings from Belarus. It should be noted that Belarus and Lithuania do not currently maintain border cooperation, as the relevant legal framework was terminated by the Lithuanian side.
Minsk, in turn, maintains its previous position of readiness for dialogue without preconditions. On 1 April, MFA spokesperson Ruslan Varankou, and on 6 April, Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou, stated that Belarus “does not intend to force anything” and views developments on the Lithuanian side more as internal “fuss” than preparation for substantive dialogue.
Against this background, the return of detained Lithuanian trucks continues. On 31 March, the State Customs Committee of Belarus reported that storage fees had been paid for 1,000 vehicles, around 700 had already returned to Lithuania, and another 300 were awaiting entry.
At the same time, the immediate situation at the border remains tense. Pressure via irregular migrants has shifted to the Lithuanian–Latvian direction, where 20–35 attempted crossings per day are being recorded. By contrast, the Polish section remains largely calm: according to Straż Graniczna, zero attempts were recorded between 31 March and 6 April.
In parallel, Lithuania is tightening its domestic policy towards Belarus. In particular, plans are underway to increase language requirements for foreigners. Discussions are also ongoing regarding a potential ban on athletes from Belarus and Russia participating in sports competitions in the country.
At the same time, despite the absence of explicit U.S. pressure, discussions have already begun in Lithuania on possible future schemes for the transit of Belarusian potash through Lithuanian territory. On 7 April, LRT reported that scenarios are being explored in which U.S. entities could act as intermediaries, with fertilisers effectively becoming “American” before transiting through Klaipėda.
On 3 April, YouTube removed the official channels of three Belarusian state media outlets — BelTA, ONT and STV. State structures and regime-controlled media immediately framed this as a politically motivated decision. The Information Ministry described the removal as an “unfriendly and unfounded step” and promised retaliatory measures, while the Belteleradiocompany suggested the possibility of designating YouTube an “extremist platform” and fully blocking it in Belarus. On 6 April, the Foreign Ministry joined the campaign, describing state media as the “foundation of the country’s information sovereignty”, accusing YouTube of violating international norms, and declaring readiness to respond “by all available means”.
On 4 April, it was reported that preparations are underway for a visit by Belarus’s newly appointed ambassador to Russia, Yury Seliverstau, to the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. This was stated on the radio station “Sputnik in Crimea” by Andrei Lapatsky, a representative of Russian-controlled Crimean structures in Belarus, who said that the visit to Crimea and Sevastopol is being prepared and is intended to facilitate interregional cooperation. Preparations for such a visit indicate further involvement of Minsk in contacts with Russian authorities on occupied Ukrainian territory. Seliverstau was appointed ambassador in January 2026; previously, he served as Minister of Finance.
On 2 April, the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (Military Intelligence and Security Service) published the names of six officers of Russia’s GRU and one Belarusian GRU officer whom it considers involved in intelligence activities against Latvia. In its 2025 report, Belarusian military intelligence was effectively described as a “branch” of the Russian GRU, also acting in Moscow’s interests. Among those named is Siarhei Baranau of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. The Latvian service also noted the growing political and economic dependence of Belarus on Russia, stating that Moscow uses it as an adjunct to its military-industrial complex, a political vassal, and an additional propaganda tool.
HUMAN RIGHTS AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
The Belarusian authorities cancelled the valid passports of more than a dozen political prisoners who have been released from prisons and colonies over the past year and expelled from the country. These include the passport of Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Ales Bialiatski, which was valid until 2028. The cancellation of the documents was not accompanied by any explanations from the authorities regarding the reason for this measure. Invalidation of a passport creates significant problems for a person who is abroad and makes it impossible to return or travel to their homeland. Several former political prisoners deported from Belarus learned on 30 March that their passports had been cancelled. However, they do not know exactly when the authorities did it. The cancellation of passports was reported by political prisoners released on various dates, including 11 September and 13 December 2025. According to those released, some of them had their passports returned after they were expelled from the country. But about three dozen people were deported without any documents at all. Among them were Viktar Babaryka, Maryja Kalesnikava, Maksim Znak, Aliaksandr Feduta, Maryna Zolatava and other individuals. Instead, they were given identity certificates in the Russian language, which are not official documents outside of Belarus. On 18 December, during the 7th Belarusian People’s Assembly, Aliaksandr Lukashenka openly admitted that passports were not issued to political prisoners who have been released and deported from the country on purpose, so that they do not have a legal opportunity to enter Belarus.
Ales Bialiatski regarded the decision to cancel the passports of former political prisoners as arbitrary and illegal: “This is another form of transnational repression aimed at making life difficult for deported political prisoners. The authorities ritually cut off our ties with Belarus. It is in vain, because Belarus will always be in our actions and hearts.” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office emphasised that passport cancellation is possible only if there are clearly defined grounds and in compliance with procedural guarantees. It emphasised that the cancellation of a passport inside Belarus does not automatically invalidate it abroad. Foreign countries independently assess the validity of documents. Such passports may continue to be accepted as identity documents, especially in asylum and humanitarian protection procedures. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in her speech at the international discussion in Berlin on countering transnational repression of authoritarian regimes, stated that transnational repression is becoming a serious threat to international security. “In the past, repression was mostly limited to the borders of the country. But today, even abroad, you can no longer feel safe. Dictatorships have learned to persecute their opponents wherever they are,” she said. Tsikhanouskaya called for bringing the topic of transnational repression to the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. Addressing international partners, she stressed that supporting Belarusian refugees, civil society, human rights organisations and independent media is not only helping Belarusians, but also protecting Europe itself.
The website of the Coordination Council of the Belarusian Democratic Forces was subjected to cyber attacks for several days last week. According to the Coordination Council, the situation repeats the events of the previous election campaign, when hackers tried to block access to democratic processes through technical sabotage. “This is the best proof that the regime recognises the importance of the elections to the Coordination Council, is afraid of them and seeks to disrupt the electoral process,” Coordination Council Secretary Ivan Krautsou said. He also added that the attacks will not stop the work of the Council. At the moment, the technical service has already restored the stable operation of the site.
On 30 March, human rights defenders recognised six more people as political prisoners. As of this date, the number of political prisoners in Belarus is 913.
The Leninsky District Court of Mahileu decided to add the websites of the Novaya Gazeta Europa newspaper, opened by Russian emigrants, and the Russian service of the BBC corporation to the list of extremist materials. The court issued the relevant decisions on 24 and 25 March, respectively. The decision stated that only the website of the Russian service of the BBC is recognised as extremist, however, the link www.bbc.com provided in it may suggest that the authorities have recognised the entire BBC website as such. In addition to these media, about 30 Internet pages of other media resources were added to the list over the past week. Currently, most independent media outlets in Belarus are recognised as “extremist”. Belarusian legislation provides for administrative liability for subscribing or reposting such materials – a fine or arrest for up to 15 days. A criminal punishment is envisaged for communicating with such media.
On 2 April, the Ministry of Information again updated the list of extremist materials. Among other things, it included the websites of Reform.news, Voice of America, as well as dozens of pages on social networks.
Mikita Drants, a defendant in the “Revolutionary Action” case, was sentenced to an additional year of imprisonment for malicious disobedience to the administration. He was supposed to be released in early March 2026. Drants was detained in 2021 and sentenced to six years of imprisonment in a high-security colony in 2022. He was found guilty of participation in actions grossly violating public order and participation in a criminal organisation.
Lithuanian citizen Miroslavas Trotskis was sentenced to 15 years of imprisonment in a high-security colony on charges of espionage and agent’s activities. He was detained in the autumn of 2024, when he came to Belarus to visit relatives, and sentenced on 11 March 2026. In June 2025, the KGB Head Ivan Tsertsel stated that since the beginning of 2025, 14 people had been detained for espionage and high treason, both Belarusian and foreign citizens. Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė commented on the verdict handed down to Miroslavas Trotskis and urged Lithuanians to carefully weigh the risks of traveling to Belarus. “We have warned people more than once to be careful, assess all the risks several times and only then set off. The Belarusian regime is designed so that no one can be safe in Belarus,” she said. “We see arrests, we see unjustified arrests, and we are making every effort, together with our strategic partners, to ensure that as many political prisoners as possible are released,” Ruginienė added.
The Director of Belaruskicry, a Belarusian jewellery brand, was sentenced to four years of restriction of freedom and sent to an open-type correctional institution on charges of leading an “extremist formation”. According to the Investigative Committee, the brand’s jewellery was “destructive” and served to unite the Belarusians who had left the country around a “criminal pattern of behaviour”. The materials of the criminal case concerning the remaining defendants have been allocated to separate proceedings. They were declared wanted. Belaruskicry is a Belarusian brand that manufactures jewellery. Their most famous work is a pendant in the form of a contour of Belarus with a stone in the form of a tear. In July 2025, the KGB recognised Belaruskicry as an “extremist formation”. The brand’s activities were banned in Belarus.
The Ministry of Information suspended the certificate of the distributor of printed publications for Technalohiya publishing house. “The research and production cooperative Technalohiya has missed the deadline for submitting a notification of changes in information to be included in the State Register of Publishers, Manufacturers and Distributors of Printed Publications, the list of which is approved by the Ministry of Information of the Republic of Belarus,” the press service of the Ministry of Information reported. In February, mass arrests of publishers and distributors of books took place in Minsk. Among others, the founder of the Technalohiya publishing house Vaclau Bagdanovich, his wife Alena and daughters Antanina and Victoryja were detained. Later, all but Victoryja Bagdanovich were released. Dzmitry Sanko, the editor-in-chief of the publishing house, was also detained. On 3 March, the KGB recognised the alleged coalition of print publishers “Foundation Kamunikat.org”, “Lohvinau Publishing House”, “Andrei Yanushkevich Publishing” as an “extremist formation”. Vaclau Bagdanovich was listed among those involved in the “formation”.
The Belarusian parliament approved a bill introducing administrative responsibility for “propaganda of homosexual relations, sex change, childlessness, and paedophilia.” A new Article number 19.16 will be added to the Code of Administrative Offences. It follows from its text that the authorities will impose monetary fines for “spreading information in any form in order to form ideas among citizens about the attractiveness of homosexual relations, sex reassignment, childlessness or the recognition of paedophilia as permissible”. If a minor gets acquainted with such information, the amount of the fine will increase. In addition, community service or administrative arrest may be imposed as punishment. The maximum fine for individuals will be 900 Belarusian rubles (approximately 263 Euro), for individual entrepreneurs – 4,500 Belarusian rubles (approximately 1,320 Euro), and for legal entities – 6,750 Belarusian rubles (approximately 1,978 Euro). The draft law also introduces new offences in other areas, including operations with tokens and the “unauthorised representation of the Republic of Belarus at international events”. The document requires signature by Aliaksandr Lukashenka to enter into force.
An engineer from Khoyniki, Aliaksandr Povod, was convicted of “facilitating extremism”. The Minsk City Court sentenced him to restriction of freedom without referral to a correctional institution. The essence of the charges is unknown, but the verdict may be related to the Belarusian Hayun case.
Political prisoner Volha Mayorava is in poor condition. She sees almost nothing and receives threats, reported a former prisoner of women’s colony No. 24, who saw Mayorava there. “She’s in a very bad condition. Firstly, for health reasons, because she sees very poorly and gradually loses the remnants of her eyesight. Secondly, as she said, she receives threats, so she seriously fears for her life,” the former political prisoner said. Volha Mayorava was convicted in 2022 in the so-called “Autukhovich case”. She was sentenced to 20 years of imprisonment. She was charged under five articles of the Criminal Code. In court, Mayorava pleaded not guilty. In March 2024, she was tried again for disobeying the demands of the colony administration and sentenced to an additional year and a half of imprisonment. She is currently serving her sentence in colony No. 24 in Zarechcha. Due to her “terrorist” status, she is not allowed medicines and medical packages sent by her relatives.
“Viasna” Human Rights Centre reported that famous photographer Andrei Lyankevich was detained on the border of Poland and Belarus. According to preliminary information, the reason for the detention was an “extremist subscription” that was found on his phone. Lyankevich is awaiting trial in an administrative case.
On 1 April, the KGB updated its list of persons involved in “terrorist activities”. Eleven individuals, including six former soldiers of the Kalinouski Regiment convicted in absentia in early March, Dzyanis Dzyanisenka, a resident of Pinsk, convicted in absentia for participating in mass riots, and other people were included in the list. Now there are 1,436 people on it, of which 688 are citizens of Belarus.
On 3 April, four new “extremist formations” appeared in Belarus: Centre Novych Idey (the Centre for New Ideas), Fundacja Brama Dziedzictwa, Belaruski Rassledovatelski Centre (the Belarusian Investigative Centre), and Novy Chas (the New Hour). Novy Chas was recognised as “extremist” by the decision of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the rest by the decision of the KGB.
On 3 April, the Ministry of Information published an updated list of “extremist materials”. Accounts on Instagram, Facebook, VKontakte, and other social networks, including those of the Belarusian diaspora in different countries, were added to it.
The Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is very concerned about the fate of journalist Dzmitry Navazhilau, who was not released, although his name was on the list of 250 political prisoners pardoned on 19 March. RSF stated that “the penitentiary authorities refuse to provide any information” about Navazhilau. “We call for his immediate release,” RSF stressed. Dzmitry Navazhilau led the BelaPAN information company from August 2018 (after the death of its founder Ales Lipai) until January 2021. On 18 August 2021, he was detained along with Iryna Leushina, the then editor-in-chief of BelaPAN. Navazhilau was charged with tax evasion, causing large-scale damage, and the creation of an extremist formation, or a formation whose activities are aimed at rehabilitating Nazism, or the leadership of such a formation or its structural unit. On 6 October 2022, Navazhilau, Leushina, along with a former Deputy Director of BelaPAN Andrei Aliaksandrau and his wife Iryna Zlobina, who have been detained since 12 January 2021, were sentenced to various terms of imprisonment by the decision of the Minsk Regional Court. Navazhilau was sentenced to six years of imprisonment. He is currently held in penal colony No. 3 in the village of Vitsba, Vitsebsk region.
The International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus published a new public inquiry into the events in the Oktyabrski police department of Minsk in the first days after the 2020 “presidential elections”. It was based on in-depth interviews with former detainees, medical reports and photographic evidence, and for the first time built a holistic picture of what happened there between 7 and 13 August, and provided names of those responsible for the crimes. The authors came to the conclusion that what was happening in the Oktyabrski police department was part of a deliberate and large-scale attack on the civilian population, which would allow these acts to be classified as crimes against humanity as codified in the international law.
The UN Human Rights Council extended the mandates of the Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus and the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus. Voting on the resolution on the “Situation of human rights in Belarus” (A/HRC/61/L.14) took place on 30 March. 28 countries voted in favour of extending the mandates for a year, 15 abstained, while Cuba, China, Vietnam and Burundi voted against. The distribution of votes represents the largest majority ever in voting on Belarus-related resolutions in the Human Rights Council. The Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus and the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus were instructed to provide the Human Rights Council with updated information on the state of human rights in Belarus at the 63rd session of the Council, and comprehensive reports at the 64th. The Council also urged the Belarusian authorities to establish full and non-selective cooperation with all United Nations human rights mechanisms. The resolution also called on the Belarusian authorities to fully comply with all obligations under international law.
On 30 March, the International Labour Organisation called on the Belarusian authorities to return the passports of trade union leaders Alyaksandr Yarashuk and Hennadz Fyadynich and resume paying them pensions. The Administrative Council, the governing body of the ILO, reviewed the situation of workers’ rights in Belarus again. It concluded that the situation had not changed since the previous meeting in November 2025, and the Belarusian authorities had not provided any new information on the implementation of the ILO recommendations. The meeting also considered the issue of trade union leaders Alyaksandr Yarashuk and Hennadz Fyadynich. They were released from imprisonment last year, but they are not being paid their pensions. In addition, Yarashuk was expelled from Belarus without a passport. According to Yarashuk, the ILO received a reply from Belarus stating that his passport was located “unknown where” and that he had been deprived of his pension for “committing a crime against the state”. The reply came without a signature. The Administrative Council included this issue in the final resolution. “The Council noted with the greatest concern the refusal of the government of Belarus to return the confiscated passports of Alyaksandr Yarashuk and Hennadz Fyadynich and restore their pensions, and called on the government to do so without further delay,” the resolution read. 40 council members voted in favour of the resolution, two voted against and 8 abstained.
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