Belarus Review by iSANS — April 14, 2025 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between April 7 and April 13, at least one Russian Shahed-type drone was detected in Belarusian airspace. The drone later crossed into Ukraine. There were no reports of drones being intercepted in Belarus. On April 13, in a state media broadcast, the Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces, Andrei Lukyanovich, stated that since the beginning of the year, Belarusian forces have destroyed 18 fixed-wing drones. However, he did not specify who had launched the drones into the Belarusian territory.

On April 8, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that command-and-staff exercises were underway at the “Staradarozski” training ground with the 8^th Brigade of Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection. During the drills, servicemen reportedly carried out aerosol camouflage of the area, conducted radiation and chemical reconnaissance, and performed decontamination of personnel and equipment exposed to contamination. A representative of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces noted that the military continuously studies the experience of the war in Ukraine — in particular, the use of drones and methods for countering them. According to him, drones are used to create smoke screens, drop incendiary mixtures, and conduct reconnaissance. Countermeasures include electronic warfare systems (such as the “Hroza” electronic rifles). Additionally, military vehicles are being equipped with anti-drone protection (specific systems were not disclosed).

On April 9, it was reported that a delegation led by Major General U. A. Yusuf, Head of the Combat Training Center of the Nigerian Army, had arrived in Belarus. The purpose of the visit was to familiarize themselves with the training infrastructure of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces, as well as their training methods. As part of the visit, the delegation toured the 38^th Air Assault Brigade, where they were introduced to the brigade’s training facilities, weaponry, and equipment, and received an overview of the organization of the training process.

On April 10, the State Authority for Military Industry reported that the “Research Institute of Electronic Computing Machines” (OAO NIIEVM) had delivered another modernized “PRV-16” mobile radio altimeter — the “PRV-16-BM.04” — to the troops. The volume and quality of the modernization work extended the service life of the station by eight years, while the implemented technologies significantly enhanced its performance characteristics. The radar’s technical capabilities allow for the detection and tracking of both current and next-generation small-sized aerial targets.

On April 10, an interview with Aliaksandr Lukashenka was published by the “Mir” broadcasting company. In the interview, the Belarusian dictator commented on the upcoming “Zapad-2025” military exercises. According to Lukashenka, the main role in the drills would be played by the Belarusian — not Russian — military. “Belarus must play the leading role [in the ‘Zapad’ exercises] for a number of reasons. The Russian Federation currently has many of its forces engaged elsewhere. It is time for us to show that we are capable of a lot. Russian forces will be present here as well,” Lukashenka said.

On April 11, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held talks in Minsk with Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif, who arrived in Belarus on an official visit. Following the meeting, a set of cooperation documents between the two countries was signed. Notably, an agreement on military cooperation was concluded between the defense ministries of Belarus and Pakistan. The agreement established a legal framework for bilateral military interaction and introduced a more structured approach to cooperation in the defense sphere. In addition, the State Authority for Military Industry of Belarus and Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense Production signed a “roadmap” for military-technical cooperation covering the years 2025–2027.

From April 11 to April 13, command-and-staff exercises with territorial troops were conducted in the Pastavy district of Vitsebsk Region. During the training, units practiced the defense of critical infrastructure, the detection and neutralization of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, the implementation of martial law measures, and the defense of a populated area. The exercises were observed by Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Pavel Muraveika. Commenting on the training, Muraveika emphasized the importance of fortified areas in ensuring national defense, as cited by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. “A distinguishing feature of this exercise is the operation of [territorial troops] units with reinforcement assets at an obstacle node within one of the fortified areas established in our country. […] Such fortified areas have been created in virtually every region, and all territorial troop units to be deployed under our plans will be involved in their defense and utilization,” Muraveika stated.

On April 13, state media, citing Chief of Staff of the Air Defense Missile Forces Andrei Bobyleu, reported that the Belarusian Air Defense Forces will soon receive the “Buk-MB2K” surface-to-air missile system. This system is a Belarusian-upgraded version of the “Buk” air defense complex. Initial reports of imminent deliveries date back to May 2024. Currently, the “Buk” system is in service with only one unit of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces — the 120^th Air Defense Missile Brigade (military unit 96577), based in Baranavichy.

On April 10, 2025, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented on the recent additions to Belarus’s list of “extremist formations,” which now includes the investigative journalism project “BureauMedia” and the initiative “Politvjazynka”, which helps women in political imprisonment. Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that the regime’s repeated attempts to discredit and invalidate Belarusian initiatives reflect its only way of showing power. She stated, “True authority is about thinking of people, protecting, supporting, and telling the truth even in the most extraordinary conditions.” She praised initiatives like “BureauMedia” and “Politvjazynka” for embodying this spirit of selfless action and noted how the regime struggles to accept that people can unite and help one another without expecting anything in return. Tsikhanouskaya asserted that no matter how hard Lukashenka and his allies try to suppress dissent, they will never impose their worldview on those who value truth. “Humanity and integrity are only called extremism by those, who are incapable of them,” she added. She expressed gratitude to people continuing their work despite risks and pressure, expressing confidence that “there is much more to come.”

As Russia conducted another missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy on April 13, Tsikhanouskaya commented on this, sharply condemning the attack. “Horrified by Russia’s missile strike on Sumy this Palm Sunday, killing and injuring dozens of civilians. As people headed to church, they were met with death. There are no words for such cruelty. Putin’s regime shows once again that it does not want peace. My heart is with Ukraine”, she wrote on “X”.

Anatoly Liabedzka, advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, held a working meeting with Zygimantas Pavilionis, Deputy Head of the “For Democratic Belarus” parliamentary group in the Lithuanian Seimas. According to the official publication, the parties agreed to hold additional consultations on Belarusian-Lithuanian relations between representatives of Tsikhanouskaya’s office and members of the Lithuanian Conservative Party. It is worth noting that the Conservatives recently introduced amendments proposing further restrictions for Belarusian citizens. At the same time, Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas expressed opposition to the Conservatives’ proposal in the Seimas to tighten national sanctions against citizens of Russia and Belarus. “Yes, we hear concerns about national security, but seeing a spy in everyone who arrives is also unreasonable,” he said. Paluckas emphasized that the government had presented a balanced legislative proposal that considers both sanctions and their potential impact. He also pointed out that Lithuania is home to a sizable Belarusian diaspora that contributes to the country’s economy through employment and investment. Also, the Lithuanian Minister of the Interior, Uladzislau Kandratovich, announced that a broad package of changes to the country’s migration policy is currently being prepared. Among the proposed measures is the potential closure of the border with Belarus. The move is linked to the need to prepare for new tactics used by illegal migrants, which have recently been observed in neighboring countries.

Meanwhile, another escalation occurred on the Polish-Belarusian border, where a group of migrants attacked a Polish border patrol, throwing stones at them and damaging a service vehicle. The incident took place near the town of Mielnik on April 13.

Hienadz Manko, a member of the Coordination Council (CC) and Head of the Mission of Democratic Belarus in Ukraine, announced that the Council’s Commission on National and Regional Security has prepared proposals for the establishment of Belarusian units from exiled Belarusians within European armed forces. He urged Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to initiate contact between representatives of the Commission on National and Regional Security, the Representative of the UTC on National Security and Defense, and the relevant authorities of the European Union, EU member states, and NATO, to begin the necessary discussions.

Belarus and Pakistan have signed a military cooperation agreement, with representatives from the defense ministries of both countries putting their signatures on the document. The agreement was signed following talks between Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. In addition, the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus and the Ministry of Defense Production of Pakistan approved a Program for Military-Technical Cooperation for the years 2025–2027. Also, the following documents were signed on April 11: an intergovernmental agreement on readmission; an agreement on cooperation between the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Pakistan to combat crime; a plan of action to implement the memorandum on environmental protection cooperation, approved by the relevant ministries of both countries. During the visit, five memorandums and agreements were also signed in the areas of economic cooperation, entrepreneurship support, and the development of trade relations between organizations and enterprises of Belarus and Pakistan.

The Latvian Seimas is reportedly set to review a resolution proposing a full ban on trade with Belarusian and Russian goods starting July 1, 2025. The initiative was introduced by the National Alliance party. The draft resolution calls on Prime Minister Evika Siliņa to take the necessary steps to implement a comprehensive trade ban on Belarusian and Russian products within Latvia and to work in coordination with the governments of Lithuania and Estonia to push for a similar ban across the entire Baltic region. Additionally, the proposal urges the Latvian government to advocate for a significant increase in import duties on Belarusian and Russian goods at the European Union level.

On March 13, work-related files connected to the activities of the Coordination Council were downloaded from the computer of its spokesperson, Anzhalika Melnikava. Among the downloaded materials were a strategic plan, budget documents, internal reports, and other operational files dating back to July 2024. A few days later, on March 19, her phone was logged into from inside Belarus. This was revealed by Deputy Speaker of the Coordination Council Stanislava Hlynnik during a public meeting on April 8. On March 28, Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, announced that Anzhalika Melnikava had gone missing on March 25. He stated that he had filed a report with the Polish authorities, noting that Melnikava holds Polish citizenship in addition to Belarusian. That same day, it was also reported that her daughters, who lived with her in Warsaw, had disappeared as well. On Monday, April 7, Anzhalika’s former husband, Andrei Melnikov, confirmed that he and the daughters are currently in Belarus. On April 10, it became known that funds had been withdrawn from the account of the “Bialoruś Liberty” foundation, which was established by Melnikava, according to a source from the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Meanwhile, the leader of the Belarusian Democratic Forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, recorded a short video in which she explained why she has remained largely silent following the disappearance of Anzhalika Melnikava. “The fact is, at this moment, there is still no clear information about her whereabouts or what exactly happened. Of course, we are all deeply concerned, but under these circumstances, I would prefer not to speculate,” Tsikhanouskaya said. She added that the case is currently being investigated by the Polish police and prosecutor’s office. “I am grateful to everyone who is making efforts to find Anzhalika,” she stated.

In early April, a delegation from the Bavarian Landtag visited the Belarusian High Technologies Park, according to the Park’s official statement. The delegation was led by Ulrich Singer, a member of the Committee on Science and the Arts and a representative of the right-wing populist party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD). “The guests of the Park expressed interest in developing cooperation with Belarus,” the statement said.

On April 2, a show trial of a local resident under a political charge of insulting Lukashenka took place in the premises of the Polytechnic College of Brest State Technical University in the presence of students. As a result of the on-site court session, the accused was sentenced to two years of restriction of liberty. The administration of the court stated that the show trial was held in front of the students as a “preventive measure” with the purpose “to protect minors from committing reckless acts, the responsibility for which is established by the Criminal Code”. This is not the first case of show arrests and trials in educational institutions. With their help the Belarusian authorities are trying to intimidate young people, among whom there are still many opponents of the regime.

Political prisoner Dzianis Salmanovich was transferred from the colony “Vitsba” to Mahileu prison No. 4, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. In 2022, Salmanovich was sentenced to ten years of high-security imprisonment and fined 4,600 rubles (about 1,300 Euro). He was found guilty of creating an organization to carry out terrorist activities or participating in it; organizing and preparing actions that grossly violate public order or actively participating in them; inciting social hostility or discord; creating an extremist formation or participating in it; and calling for sanctions or other actions aimed at harming the national security of the Republic of Belarus. The security forces claimed Salmanovich’s connection with the “Civil Self-Defense Units” and called him the “chief visual editor” of “Cyber Partisan” videos. In June 2022, the KGB added Salmanovich to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities”.

Catholic priest Henrikh Akalatovich, who was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment for “high treason”, was able to pass a message in which he noted that he was accused of “espionage in favor of Poland and the Vatican”. Akalatovich called the accusation a “gross provocation”, stressed that he had never been a spy for anyone, and it was not him who was being tried, but “the entire Catholic Church in Belarus”. “Priests are being persecuted to shut our mouths so that the Catholic Church does not tell the truth”, he wrote. He stated that in his case “there is not a word of truth, not a single fact incriminating espionage, and the whole accusation is based on lies, threats and blackmail”. Of the dozens of witnesses, including officials and the military, according to Akalatovich, none gave “incriminating testimony» against him. He considered a trial against him to be political. In his opinion, the case was fabricated, among other things, in order to take away the donations that were withdrawn from him under the pretext of compensation “damage caused” and to demand an even larger amount. Akalatovich has poor health. He had previously suffered a heart attack and was suffering from cancer. The human rights community of Belarus has recognized him as a political prisoner.

The BYSOL foundation will provide assistance to persons convicted to so-called “home chemistry” (restriction of freedom). It is noted that despite all the apparent softness (a person is at home, has access to the Internet and can commute to work), this type of punishment often turns into hell. This is especially true for women on parental leave, pensioners and people with disabilities, who cannot work, are trapped in four walls, and have problems with their health and money.

As of April 7, human rights defenders are aware of at least 203 political prisoners who are in a special risk group, “Viasna” Human Rights Center reports. Among them are persons with health problems, minors at the time of the commission of the acts they are accused of, persons in difficult family situation, as well as those undergoing compulsory psychiatric treatment. This number includes political prisoners held in isolation, as well as those who did not leave the institution, despite the expiration of term of their sentence. At least 76 persons have serious health problems. Seven of them have disabilities, 30 persons are over the age of 60, ten persons have mental disorders.

The fourth auction for the sale of a house belonging to the Tsapkala family, was scheduled for April 9. The house was arrested within the framework of a criminal investigation against Valery Tsapkala, one of the candidates during 2020 presidential elections, who was found guilty under nine charges and sentenced in absentia to 17 years of imprisonment. His wife Veranika Tsapkala was sentenced in absentia to 12 years of imprisonment for “conspiracy to seize power”. The house was sold for almost half the price offered during the first auction. Three persons are still registered in the house, including two minor children.

On April 7, the KGB added 13 more persons, including Mikalai Hila, an employee of the European Union mission in Minsk and a preacher of the Evangelical Christian Baptist Church Blagovest, to the list of “persons involved in terrorist activities”. All those included in the list are recognized as political prisoners. There are 1,377 positions and 1,269 persons on the “terrorist list”, of which at least 580 are citizens of Belarus.

On April 9, a number of initiatives were recognized as extremist groups. Among them is a group of journalists from the BureauMedia project, Politvjazynka initiative, created to support Belarusian women political prisoners, and the Hrystianskaya Vizja project, an interfaith association of priests and believers that monitors the facts of repression for religious and political reasons. The Politvjazynka initiative is suspending its work after it was recognized as an “extremist formation”: “We have made a very difficult and painful decision to suspend the work of our project. This page will remain here as an archive for now. It bears the mark of our common struggle, our love, our hope. And we still believe that one day there will be a post with the main news — about the release of all political prisoners. From the very beginning, we have been and remain a voice for freedom. For political prisoners. For humanism and empathy. For the dialogue. For solidarity,” the representatives of the initiative wrote on social networks.

On April 11, the Interior Ministry added 27 more persons to the “List of citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens or stateless persons involved in extremist activities”. Among other, former security officers from Zhodzina who back in 2020 recorded an appeal to colleagues, condemning violence and asking them not to act in a punitive manner, were added to the list. On February 2, 2024, all five were detained, and on January 13, 2025, their case began to be considered in the Minsk Regional Court.

Security officers visited the relatives of journalist and blogger Valeri Ruselik and activist Maryna Kasinerava. According to Ruselik, on the evening of April 9, two men in civilian clothes came to his mother’s home. “They asked about me again: where I live, whether I am going to return, whether my mother is in contact with me, etc. What was new is that they asked whether I have tattoos or scars, as well as how tall I am. They noted down the data of my close relatives again,” he said. “They have come several times this year alone. They are picking on my other loved ones as well,” he added. According to Kasinerava, security officers repeatedly visited her address of registration, where she has not lived for more than 13 years. “[…] they come even after hours (at night, when people are asleep), to ask if I am definitely not in Belarus and when I will arrive. They came again yesterday, twice in December [2024], and before that in January the KGB came with a search warrant signed by Shved [Prosecutor General Andrei Shved], my mother was taken away for questioning, 35 euros were taken away and still have not been returned because the investigation is underway,” she wrote.

Activist Dzmitri Karnyayenka said that security officers visited his relatives in Belarus on April 10. “My “extremist” status has grown. Now, as a member of the Hrystianskaya Vizja, I am recognized as a person involved in an “extremist formation”. Yesterday, police officers came to my father in Orsha and even took a biomaterial from him. The father was confused and did not ask what it was for. And today the police have already visited my mother-in-law in Vitsebsk,” Karnyayenka wrote.

Up to 600,000 Belarusians were forced to leave the country due to repression and the political crisis, Pavel Latushka, delegate of the Coordination Council in the CoE Parliamentary Assembly, said at a meeting of the PACE Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights “Combating Transnational Repression”, citing data from the UN Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus. He noted that taking advantage of complete impunity, Lukashenka and the top military and political leadership of his regime are only intensifying repression in Belarus every day. The Lukashenka regime openly declares the purpose of these repressions: to “purge” the population of “disloyal” citizens. It continues to persecute Belarusians who were forced to leave the country and live abroad through systematic prosecution, including trials in absentia, threats and intimidation against those in exile and their relatives who remained in Belarus. About 400 persons who took part in protest actions abroad against the “elections” were recognized as suspects in criminal cases. Criminal cases were initiated against 257 persons who ran for the Coordination Council last year.

More than 4,700 Belarusians are on the wanted list of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. Of these, more than 1,200 citizens and natives of Belarus have been added there in the last 5 months. At least 58 of them were convicted in Belarus on political charges. Belarusians are included in the list at the request of Belarus, which means that they are wanted in both countries.

On April 7, Azadeh Rojhan, General Rapporteur on Political Prisoners in Europe of the Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights of the CoE Parliamentary Assembly, issued an Information Note on the situation of political prisoners in Russia and Belarus. She noted that systemic repression has become a basic tool to silence dissent, restrict civil society space and criminalize opposition in both countries and underlined that in Belarus, the Lukashenka regime is targeting not only dissidents, but also their relatives. She referred to a report by the UN Group of Independent Experts on the Human Rights Situation in Belarus, in which the experts stated that Belarusian authorities have committed widespread human rights violations against the country’s civilian population, some amounting to crimes against humanity of imprisonment and persecution on political grounds, as part of a brutal effort to quash all opposition to the rule of Lukashenka. Azadeh Rojhan extensively cited reports of “Viasna” Human Rights Center and Amnesty International which observed that political prisoners are being routinely held incommunicado, subjected to torture, inhuman treatment, isolation in punishment cells, and other forms of ill-treatment. They face death threats, severe beatings during arrests and detention, forced labour and psychological abuse. Deaths of at least seven persons due to the conditions of detention and inadequate medical care since 2020 were reported. Above all that prisoners are often required to sign an official plea for pardon, which includes admission of guilt. Azadeh Rojhan noted Belarusian authorities have intensified the use of preventative arrests as a tool of repression, targeting not only political activists but also their families in the run-up to the January 2025 so-called presidential elections, and its crackdown on citizens supporting Ukraine, particularly those involved in military efforts against the Russian invaders and have actively prosecuted Ukrainian nationals. She mentioned some of those who remain imprisoned, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, vice-president of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) Valiantsin Stefanovich, and human rights lawyer Uladzimir Labkovich, a leading presidential contender Viktar Babaryka and a leading opposition figure, Maryja Kalesnikava. General Rapporteur on Political Prisoners in Europe concluded with stating that the situation of political prisoners in Belarus and Russia remains gravely concerning. Amid a wider persecution of human rights defenders and political opponents, the Lukashenka regime targets also activists, journalists, lawyers, and civil society organizations through arbitrary detentions, politically motivated charges, violence and legislative restrictions. Criminal law, anti-extremism measures, and counter-terrorism frameworks are instrumentalized to suppress dissent and dismantle whatever is left from independent civil society.  She urged the Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights to pay close attention to the developments in the situation with political prisoners in Belarus and announced she will work closely with the General Rapporteur on Russian democratic forces and the General Rapporteur for a democratic Belarus, to consider what further steps the Assembly can take to help political prisoners in Russia and Belarus.

On April 8, the international human rights organization Amnesty International published a report on the global practice of using the death penalty. Belarus became one of the 46 countries in the world where death sentences were imposed in 2024. Amnesty International reminded that Belarus is the only country in Europe where the death penalty is applied. Such a sentence was handed down last year to German citizen Rico Krieger. He was found guilty of an “act of terrorism” in a closed trial. Krieger was later pardoned and handed over to Germany as part of a wide prisoner exchange between Russia, Belarus and Western countries. Due to the state secrecy surrounding the use of the death penalty, Amnesty International has not been able to confirm how many persons have been sentenced to death in Belarus, however, it is known that a Belarusian citizen sentenced to death on October 19, 2023, has appealed his sentence to the Supreme Court. At the end of 2024, there was no information about his possible execution, or his conviction overturned.

On April 9, the CoE Parliamentary Assembly adopted a Resolution 2598 (2025) “Russian war of aggression against Ukraine: the need to ensure accountability and avoid impunity”. It welcomed the finalization of the necessary legal documents for the establishment of the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression within the framework of the Council of Europe, after almost two years of consultations. By establishing such a tribunal, the Council of Europe will not only support its member state, Ukraine, in its efforts to ensure accountability, but will also uphold the international legal order. The PACE stressed that the Special Tribunal’s jurisdiction should extend to the alleged crimes of aggression committed by the so-called Belarusian leadership. In this regard, the PACE called on all states to ensure that Russia and Belarus are held accountable for their systemic use of torture and other forms of ill-treatment to which Ukrainian prisoners of war, Ukrainian civilians and political prisoners in Russia and temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, as well as political prisoners in Belarus, have been and are being subjected, by having recourse to the dispute settlement mechanism stipulated in the UN Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. It also, among other, called on the European Union, its member states and other states to maintain and strengthen the current sanctions against Russia, its allies, entities and individuals supporting or benefiting from the aggression, until it ceases its aggression against Ukraine and complies with its international obligations.

During the reporting period, propagandists loyal to the Lukashenka regime closely followed the unfolding global trade war, offering commentary both through state-run media outlets and on social media platforms. For example, Pavel Karnazytski, a relatively new columnist for Minskaya Prauda, offered a bleak outlook for the European Union in his April 7 article. “Apparently, Europeans no longer believe they can earn money for Brussels just to have the European Commission waste it all on militarization,” he wrote. “No matter what countermeasures European officials come up with in response to Washington’s new economic policy, it is clear that EU anti-Trump dissenters have been backed into a corner by tariffs. So, one of the new demands might well be a public renunciation of Biden and Soros. For too long, the EU tested the patience of the new White House master by sabotaging his efforts to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine.” Citing a recent speech by Donald Trump, Karnazytski concludes that the former U.S. president has no concern for Europe’s future. “Trump made it clear: the EU has lived off the U.S. for long enough and now has to ‘pay its debts.’ So the sooner Europe collapses, the sooner the U.S. gets Canada and Greenland.”

Aliaksandr Lukashenka also addressed the issue of tariffs during his interview with the “Mir” broadcasting company. He admitted that Trump’s statements had made him “uneasy,” noting that he had already discussed the matter with Vladimir Putin. According to Lukashenka, the Trump administration might soon soften its position, having realized that “they came on too strong.” Lukashenka added that he was “calmly observing the developments” and advised Putin to do the same: “Why should we or Russia stress over this? We have already had so many sanctions and tariffs imposed on us — there is nowhere left to go. And we survived. We endured.” He also cautioned against taking Western leaders at their word when it comes to peace in Ukraine, warning that Belarus must remain vigilant to avoid being deceived again: “Right now, we must focus on strengthening our own position.”

On April 7, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs heaped praise on the national customs service, crediting it with intercepting “the largest shipment of explosives in the country’s history,” which they claim was destined for the territory of the so-called Union State. In their statement, the MFA took a jab at neighboring Poland: “While Polish colleagues are busy tightening migration controls and boasting about having ‘the most secure border in Europe,’ Belarusian specialists continue their systematic work against real threats — protecting both themselves and, it seems, the Polish side as well.” The ministry emphasized that stopping these materials from reaching malicious actors had allegedly “eliminated the risk of mass casualties and destruction,” suggesting the truck carrying the explosives could have become a “ticking time bomb” for EU residents. However, Poland’s NASK cybersecurity research institute cast doubt on these claims, saying the Belarusian customs report of seizing a major explosives shipment on the Polish border was “most likely disinformation.” Pro-regime and pro-Kremlin commentator Aliaksandr Shpakouski speculated that this “hellish cargo of explosives” might have been intended for Russia in order to “derail fragile Russian-American agreements and provoke a new escalation in the Ukraine conflict and broader East-West relations.” “We have to understand,” he wrote on Telegram, “that immense money is at stake — just the EU alone plans to spend €800 billion in additional military spending, which would increase global military expenditures by a third. There will not be any easy solutions, and the ‘party of war’ will stop at nothing.”

Political analyst Andrei Lazutkin also touched on the “party of war” narrative. On April 10, marking the 15^th anniversary of the Smolensk air disaster, he linked the Polish military buildup to the commemoration of the crash: “Compare, for instance, how Western countries remained silent after the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Raisi, while Katyn still dominates the headlines in Eastern Europe. There is nothing good in this for Belarus. Poland continues to militarize, buying up vast amounts of weapons. There is not a single sign of de-escalation. And once Tusk’s government inevitably falls and PiS returns to power, the crash will be dragged back into the spotlight — with talk of paratroopers, air defenses, and liquid helium. Sadly, even in the 21^st century, with all our technology, people still take sides to key political events based on belief rather than evidence.” Lazutkin concluded with a stab at Poland’s political culture: “That is why our president keeps saying, ‘Put the facts on the table.’ However, in Poland, the facts change every time the table does. Which means reaching an agreement will be nearly impossible.”

At an April 9 press conference, Aliaksandr Pastalouski of the Institute of Sociology at the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus claimed that trust in Belarusian state media had allegedly risen from 38.4% in 2021 to 60% in 2024. According to him, the data came from a survey conducted in October 2024 among 1,300 respondents aged 18 to 79 across various settlements. “It is our state media that shapes the national information agenda, and this resonates with our audience. Meanwhile, foreign media outlets do not enjoy public trust within our information space,” Pastalouski emphasized. He also stated that trust in independent media allegedly declined from 12.4% in 2021 to just 2.2% in 2024 (compared to 3.5% in 2023).

Representatives of the regime and state media reacted enthusiastically to Lukashenka’s signing of a new directive on April 9: “On the Implementation of the Foundations of Belarusian State Ideology.” Military analyst Aliaksandr Tsishchanka, writing for SB. Belarus Today, likened ideology to a “spiritual backbone for shaping individuals and uniting society around the goals of the state” — a kind of “semantic air defense system” against cognitive attacks from abroad. He warned that if a country lacks its own ideology, “something foreign will inevitably take its place. That space is sacred and never remains empty.” He argued that the West’s main goal is to destroy traditional national values in countries like Belarus, rewrite their constitutions, and impose Western values in order to control them. “In essence,” he wrote, “national ideology is the West’s primary target, because without it, we become nothing more than genderless, amoral consumers of Western goods.” Notorious state propagandist Ryhor Azaronak went even further in his praise, drawing comparisons with sacred texts: “There are the Ten Commandments. The Code of the Builder of Communism. Entire volumes of our literature. The sacred legacy — revelations from our great history, its heroes and martyrs, its villains. Our best minds have absorbed it all and laid it out in a coherent document. This is our equipment, our ideological shield and sword. But you cannot just read it and recite it to people with a cold heart and lazy soul. Ideology must electrify you. And the ideologue must be a transformer — channeling that energy and passing it on to others.”

Speaking at a nationwide community cleanup event “subbotnik” on April 12, Lukashenka told regime-friendly journalists that Ukraine has no place in the EU, claiming the bloc’s markets are “long since divided up” and that Ukraine’s future lies “in our space.” He criticized the millions of dollars spent on negotiations around Ukraine’s EU accession, suggesting those involved are simply “milking the grant money” for something “that will probably never happen.” According to Lukashenka, Ukraine once helped develop the idea of Eurasian cooperation with Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan, but later fell under the sway of “nationalist ideology,” which he blames for the war. He also offered unsolicited advice to Donald Trump: think before you “rattle your tongue” and start trade wars. That said, Lukashenka claimed that such conflicts do not scare him personally, since he has already survived “barriers, tariffs, sanctions” together with Russia. He called the EU Trump’s “greatest enemy” and Poland a “convenient launchpad” for U.S. efforts against Russia and Belarus. Although he claimed to be indifferent to the Polish presidential race, he publicly dismissed the Polish presidency as a “puppet post — a toy for pacing Washington’s corridors, waiting for a door to open.” “In Poland, the president cannot change anything. He does not have real powers. All he will do is make noise in the media. Still, we would prefer someone sensible — no need for a pro-Russian or pro-Belarusian figure. Let him be pro-Polish, someone who acts in the interest of the Polish people. That is all we want. If that happens, we are ready to work with them.” He also warned Polish officials that if they want to trade with China, they should better avoid “picking a fight” with Belarus.

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iSANS team