Belarus Review by iSANS — August 3, 2026 

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, 10 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded in Belarusian airspace between 27 July and 2 August 2026. Belarusian Air Force quick reaction aircraft were scrambled to intercept them. No reports were received about any UAVs being destroyed or crashing.

On 28 July, Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Pavel Muraveika began a visit to Pakistan. The visit was announced by Valery Revenka, Head of the International Military Cooperation Department. Its stated purpose was to discuss the military-political situation in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, as well as international military cooperation and economic issues. The Belarusian Defence Ministry also announced meetings with Pakistan’s military-political leadership and visits to defence industry enterprises. On 30 July, Muraveika met with Pakistan Air Force Commander Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu. The sides discussed regional security and expanding defence cooperation through joint training, exercises, technological cooperation and defence industry partnerships. The Belarusian side also highly praised the Pakistan Air Force’s operational readiness and its drive towards self-sufficiency.

On 29 July, Belarus hosted, for the first time, the accreditation of the Defence Attaché of the Embassy of Rwanda to Russia and Belarus (with concurrent accreditation to Belarus). According to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, the meeting established working contacts and discussed prospects for cooperation between the two countries’ defence ministries. In 2026, Rwanda became the second African country, after Mozambique, to accredit its military diplomat to the Belarusian Defence Ministry for the first time.

On 29 July, the final phase of an exercise involving the territorial defence forces of Malaryta and Drahichyn districts in Brest region took place in Malaryta district. According to the Belarusian Defence Ministry, the event consisted of a training assembly for the command staff of territorial defence military authorities. It brought together district executive committee chairpersons and their deputies, officials responsible for organising territorial defence, and military commissars from Brest region. The programme covered interaction between the Belarusian Armed Forces and other security agencies, equipping territorial troops in light of lessons from the war in Ukraine, and creating obstacle systems to improve unit survivability. A practical demonstration showed engineering preparations and checkpoint organisation procedures.

On 2 August, Special Operations Forces Commander Aliaksandr Iliukevich told the military television channel VoenTV about the formation of the 37th Air Assault Brigade. Its creation was first announced publicly in August 2025. According to Iliukevich, several units and sub-units have already been established. By the end of 2027, they are expected to relocate to their permanent base in a military camp currently under construction in Homiel district. Iliukevich also announced that Belarusian servicemen would participate in an upcoming Belarusian-Chinese exercise in China. In addition, personnel of the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, incorporated into the Special Operations Forces in 2025, are tasked with protecting ‘important state facilities’ from unmanned aerial vehicles.

On 31 July in Warsaw, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya addressed the European Democrat Students Summer University, stating that the Lukashenka regime has remained in power thanks to Russian support, at the cost of Belarusian sovereignty, while turning Belarus into a platform for Russian aggression. She stressed that Belarusian society does not support the war and remains committed to independence. Tsikhanouskaya called on Europe to maintain pressure on the regime and continue supporting Belarusian students, independent media and civil society.

On 27 July, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya issued a statement on the occasion of the day of the adoption of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Belarus in 1990. She described the Declaration as a key milestone on Belarus’s path to independence. According to Tsikhanouskaya, sovereignty resulted from public awakening and the struggle for the right to determine the country’s future independently. She stressed that Belarus must remain free from foreign weapons and foreign wars.

On 30–31 July, Lukashenka visited Brest district, focusing on the harvest campaign, industrial modernisation and production localisation. He ordered faster straw removal, accelerated soil preparation for winter crops and wider use of high-performance agricultural machinery. He was presented with a domestically developed round baler featuring more than 70% localisation, with serial production scheduled to begin in 2027. At the Brest Electric Lamp Plant, Lukashenka instructed officials to complete the modernisation programme, expand LED production and prepare a new development strategy for the Horizont holding. During his visit to Savushkin Product, he emphasised timely wage payments and greater investment by processors in their own raw material base.

Background: The harvest campaign traditionally dominates Lukashenka’s agenda at this time of year. In 2026, however, his increased attention to this issue and his involvement in the finer details reflects the complex international environment and expectations of higher global food prices due to the U.S. conflict with Iran, Russian and Ukrainian strikes on oil refining facilities and naval assets transporting food stuff, and adverse weather conditions in key agricultural regions. The regime’s objective is to extract the maximum possible output from agriculture and surpass last year’s harvest of 11 million tonnes of grain. The campaign has also produced some unusual measures. Police have reportedly been sending unemployed people to agricultural enterprises as a form of “resocialisation through labour”. Military commissariats have effectively taken on the role of agricultural inspectors, claiming full coverage of farms while checking labour discipline and working conditions, as the Defence Ministry develops an “algorithm” for sending underperforming agricultural workers and farm directors to military training.

On 28 July, Lukashenka received a report from Belarus’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Valiantsin Rybakau, who oversees the Belarus–U.S. negotiating track. He gave a positive assessment of the current dynamics in relations with the United States, expressed confidence in Special Envoy John Coale, and reaffirmed his intention to maintain the existing approach. “We have never been evasive or hidden our position behind diplomatic language. They clearly understand what we can do and what we cannot,” Lukashenka said, referring in particular to Belarus’s relations with Russia, China and Iran. His public remarks indicate that the negotiating process remains active and that both sides continue to expect further progress.

On 27 July, Lukashenka met with Igor Shchyogolev, Plenipotentiary Representative of the Russian President in the Central Federal District. The main topic was cooperation in biotechnology centred on the Belarusian National Biotechnology Corporation, including deep grain processing, feed production and import substitution. Lukashenka proposed combining Belarusian and Russian expertise and strengthening direct links between enterprises and regions to accelerate projects and reduce bureaucratic delays. Biotechnology has become one of the regime’s political priorities in recent years.

Tensions along Belarus’s borders increased slightly. The overall pattern remained unchanged: the main migration pressure was concentrated on Latvia, where 342 illegal crossing attempts were recorded between 26 and 31 July (according to the Valsts robežsardze). At the same time, a modest increase continued on the Polish border, where 54 attempts were registered during the same period. In one incident, a group of migrants attempting to cross the border of Poland behaved aggressively, throwing sticks at border guards (according to the Straż Graniczna). On the Lithuanian border, the discovery of underground tunnels intensified. On 27 July, a tunnel extending five metres across the border was found in Varėna district, while on 29 July another unfinished 11-metre tunnel was discovered near a group of around 20 migrants. Both tunnels were incomplete. Polish detection equipment was used during the searches, and Lithuania plans to acquire its own underground detection systems.

On 31 July, Latvia suspended traffic through Pāternieki, the only operational road crossing on its border with Belarus, citing an information systems failure. Latvian Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava urged Latvian residents to “abandon plans to travel to Belarus, or return if they are already there”, warning that safe travel between the two countries could become difficult amid the migration-related hybrid operation conducted by Minsk. On 3 August, Latvia’s Interior Ministry proposed that the government fully suspend passenger and freight traffic through Pāternieki, citing continued migration pressure, the need to concentrate border guard resources, and the risk of provocations and intelligence activities. The same day, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry described the situation as a de facto border closure and threatened retaliatory measures, including asymmetric responses.

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Belarus from 1.3% to above 1.5%, citing stronger investment activity. Fixed capital investment increased by 4.1% in the first half of the year, including an 11.4% rise in budget-funded investment and an almost twofold increase in investment financed through preferential loans.

On 31 July, Belarusian human rights organisations published a joint statement recognising another 13 people as political prisoners. These persons were convicted under charges of insulting Lukashenka and other officials, facilitating extremist activities, and other charges used by the Belarusian authorities for political persecution. Human rights defenders call for the release of these individuals, as well as all political prisoners, and an end to repression in the country. On the same day, Belarusian human rights defenders recognised eight more people convicted on various charges as political prisoners. As of 31 August, the number of political prisoners was 883.

On 31 July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs added five more people to the list of “persons involved in extremist activities”. Among them was 50-year-old political prisoner Aliaksandr Baranau, who was detained in January 2025 in connection with the Belarusian Hajun case. The list stated that he was “serving his sentence”. There are now 6,811 entries in the list.

The Ministry of Information updated the list of “extremist materials”. The website of the Polish PAP state news agency (Polska Agencja Prasowa) was included in it. The relevant decision was made on 28 July by the Haretski district court of the Mahileu region. “We consider the decision of the Belarusian court as an attempt to restrict access to reliable and independent information. The PAP will continue to cover events in Belarus in accordance with the standards of professional journalism. This decision will not change our principles or working methods. At the same time, we take special responsibility for the safety of our sources and recipients in Belarus,” said Marek Błoński, Director General of the PAP. Among other sources, the website of the Representative Office for the National Revival of the United Transitional Cabinet, Telegram channel of journalist and former political prisoner Ihar Losik, and YouTube channel of the Belarusian folk-punk band Dzieciuki from Hrodna were added to the list.

Over the past six months, the Brest Region Prosecutor’s office sent 117 applications to the courts for recognising Internet resources as “extremist materials”. The prosecutors asked for 34 Instagram accounts, 24 TikTok accounts, 23 Threads accounts, eight websites, seven Facebook accounts, six Vkontakte accounts, six YouTube channels, five Telegram channels, three X accounts, three Dzen channels, and two mobile apps to be recognised as “extremist”.

According to the official statistics of the Supreme Court of Belarus, in the first half of 2026, the courts sentenced 239 Belarusian minors, of whom 12 were convicted on politically motivated charges. Nine of them were convicted of “facilitating extremist activities”. Minors were also held accountable for “calls to harm national security” and for “abuse of state symbols”. Twenty-two minors were sentenced to imprisonment. In early summer, human rights defenders reported that they were aware of the names of at least 27 minors involved in politically motivated criminal cases. They warned that the real scale of the persecution could be much greater: in 2025 alone, at least 40 minors were convicted on political grounds.

Hleb Herasimovich and Aliaksandr Milkamanovich, political prisoners in the “Zelenaya Set” (Green Network) case, were sentenced to six years of imprisonment in a high-security colony on charges of participating in an extremist formation. In addition, each of them was ordered to pay a fine of 500 basic units (22,500 rubles or approximately 6,900 Euro). In July 2025, the KGB recognised the Green Network coalition of environmental protection initiatives as an “extremist formation”. The authorities included the initiatives “Belarus Beehive”, “Zeleny portal” (Green Portal) and the public association “Ecodome” in the list of projects united by this name. The exact circumstances of the criminal case and the details of the trial of Herasimovich and Milkamanovich remain unknown.

On 27 July, the Hrodna Regional Court sentenced Pavel Mickiewicz in absentia to five years of imprisonment in a high-security colony and a fine of 22,500 rubles (approximately 6,900 Euro). Pavel Mickiewicz has been living in Poland for more than 20 years. In 2008, he founded the Okno na Wschód (Window to the East) Foundation in Białystok, which promotes good-neighbourly relations with Eastern European countries, migrant support, and educational projects. The court found Mickiewicz guilty of spreading deliberately false information about the political and social situation of the Republic of Belarus, the legal status of citizens in the Republic of Belarus, and the activities of government agencies, discrediting the Republic of Belarus and facilitating extremist activities.

On 29 July, the Minsk City Court began consideration of the criminal case in absentia against Siarhei Mikhalok. He is accused of inciting discord and insulting Lukashenka. Mikhalok is the founder and leader of the bands Lapis Trubetskoy, Brutto and Drezden. In 2020, he announced that all his projects would not be performing in Belarus until a change of the Lukashenka regime.

Belarusian film director Andrei Kudzinenka was forced to leave the country after KGB and riot police officers searched his apartment and office. According to Kudzinenka, the security officers accused him of “extremism”, were interested in possible foreign financing of his film school “KinoCollider”, and threatened to close it. “This was hinted to me during the interrogation: ‘You are strangers here, leave’. Who is a stranger to whom? I represent my country, won prizes, participated in festivals. When I received an unequivocal answer that the film school would be closed, the question arose: what kind of activities can I carry out? This is a ban on work, a ban on living in general, in fact,” Kudzinenka explained. Kudzinenka’s passport and phone were taken away by security officers, and all his social networks are under the control of the KGB.

The Belarusian security services are actively trying to recruit delegates of the Coordination Council and employees of the National Anti-Crisis Management. Over the last week, members of the Latushka Coalition faction and the movement For Freedom were contacted through several accounts via messenger apps. Previously unknown persons tried to contact Coordination Council delegate Mikita Semyanenka. He received messages stating there was a “need to talk” from unknown accounts registered to Belarusian numbers. Information about these attempts was transferred to the Warsaw District Prosecutor’s Office. Co-optation of exiled individuals for further informing on activities of diaspora organisations is a standard tool of transnational repression by the Lukashenka regime.

On 29 July, about 350 people were detained by the police in the Rassonski district of the Vitsebsk region at the annual Rainbow Family festival, which unites supporters of the idea of harmonious coexistence with nature, an alternative lifestyle and protest against the conventions of capitalist society. Among them, 68 foreigners were detained — one Israeli citizen and 67 Russian citizens. During the raid, people were detained in their entirety as families, and several minors spent the night in a temporary detention centre alongside adults. According to human rights defenders, reports were drawn up against those detained for taking part in an unauthorised mass gathering, and court proceedings are due to take place within two months. The Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed the raid. According to the Ministry, the reason for the check was a message to line 102 about a noisy event on the shore of a lake with a large number of people. “The participants set up tents, lit bonfires and held festivities with loud music and used paraphernalia of various religious movements. Many of them were naked in front of young children,” the press release said. An administrative process was initiated against the participants of the festival on charges of violating the procedure for organising or holding mass events.

The BYSOL foundation launched a fundraising campaign in support of the children of Belarusian political prisoners inside the country and abroad. The goal is to collect 10,000 Euro. As was noted by the foundation, this year the collection did not start from scratch. During the FIFA World Cup final, BYSOL, together with its partners, organised a charity prize draw. This made it possible to collect 1,177 Euro in favour of the children. “Every year, BYSOL receives up to 200 applications for children’s support from families in which one or both parents are in custody or have been convicted for political reasons. The assistance in the amount of 100 Euro allows them to cover basic needs: the purchase of school supplies and at least some clothes,” BYSOL said. Until 27 August, BYSOL accepts applications for financial support from parents located in Belarus or abroad. The support is designed for families of political prisoners in which one or both parents have been in custody for at least three months (including the restriction of freedom), as well as for families with children of former political prisoners released after 1 January 2024.

The BELPOL initiative started cooperation with the Belarusian Refugee Support (BRS) to provide support to Belarusians who find themselves in a difficult situation in the United States. The partnership is aimed at providing comprehensive support, including legal assistance, information verification, and handling individual cases. BELPOL noted several levels of support including using the capabilities of the United Transitional Cabinet, which provides diplomatic support and takes into account the political context, “makes it possible to comprehensively approach each case and apply tools that are not available to individual structures individually.”

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office published a list of events dedicated to the sixth anniversary of the start of mass protests following the falsification of the 2020 presidential election. Protest actions will be held in Lithuania, Poland, Austria, Canada, and the USA. It was noted that the list of events will be updated. The organisers of new events were asked to provide information about them through feedback or a special form for inclusion in the general list.

Note from the editors: We do not provide links to publications in official and propagandistic sources belonging to the Lukashenka regime or affiliated with the regime. If you are interested in obtaining such a link for research or investigation purposes, please contact us at info@isans.org

Best regards, iSANS team